 We have a three course event coming up this weekend for the American Express Which means a unique format a unique layout some unique courses and a lot to break down a lot to dissect and hopefully some good DFS plays to break down as well We're gonna get set for the American Express and break down our thoughts on of this weekend's event right now Welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number fire that's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as always by Brandon Gadoula, he is the managing editor of number fire calm Brandon the American Express back to its typical format for this year I'm sure that greatly impacts your mood for today. How you doing? Yeah, well, I was glad you had such a it wasn't an overly long intro, but I had a Plow truck coming from way down the street that I could hear and I was just kind of hoping that you Kept going well part of the reason is I forgot to record your audio And so I had to press record on your audio before I could actually bring you in Because talking to you while you're not recording is not the most helpful situation like the YouTube people will be fine Whatever, you know, they'd be partying in the streets, but like, you know, I messed up So it was a long vamp not because I knew psychically that there was a plow but because I Messed up. I would love to hear that that cut though It would be like the the Garfield without Garfield strip It's just Jim kind of hearing voices and having conversations and back and forth about if you told me like six years from now that like This never actually existed my level of surprise to be about a six out of ten like it's not a ten It's a six, you know Is it is it because I'm so elusive? Yeah, like a little like a night wolf. I don't know what that's about. I don't know what that means a night wolf You just kind of slither in the night. I know I could go like snake or something like that But um, yeah, I just you know elusive elusive boy Yeah, I mean, although. Yeah, if you told me like However long it's been since we did the show first like six years ago or something seven. Yeah, I don't know We've done six seasons of NFL Whatever that means in so that we started years We started with NFL because I remember talking Spencer where for my first ever heat check trend I think Lady on Bell was the cover boy for our first podcast But that that could be there's a wide range when that could have happened But yeah, if you so if you told me seven years ago that I would have actually done a podcast I said no, I'm not a chance. So it's very true and instead here you are talking about Michael Thompson Andrew Landry You know all the Yeah guys who were some of these guys were like 16 six years ago That's actually some of them were even younger than that So we're old is the takeaway here But it's gonna be a fun event this weekend if you are new to the American Express It is a pretty fun layout It's a three course event will break down the implications of that break down what it means for the cuts and which golfers tend to excel at these courses in just one second But first a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts We are an Apple podcast Spotify stitcher Google podcasts. I hear radio. You name it. You can find us there Hit subscribe and if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review also, of course NDA and NHL BFS via to Vecchio USC via Austin Swain NASCAR coming up not too far down the line, too We are almost to Daytona 500 months. So a lot of good stuff Make sure you are subscribed wherever you get your podcast also the world fantasy basketball championship It's scheduled to take place on March 13th Which means there is still plenty of time for you to qualify for the live final to get in on the action Enter your best nine man NBA lineup into a WF BBC qualifier and finish in first place Each final is VIP package includes a trip for two to New Orleans to luxury box game tickets The Hornets Pelicans game on March 11th VIP entry to a special fan event and so much more the live final Be here before you know it so that a fandal.com slash WF BBC today and compete for your chance to win a Party at the bayou Eligibility restrictions apply go to fandal.com or download the fandal app for more details Okay, the American Express as mentioned is a three course event last year trim down to two courses due to COVID-19 It was not a program then it will be this year Each golfer will play one round at each course and then the cut will occur after those three rounds So a 54 hole cut for this week. It is the top 70 plus ties make it yet top 70 not tip top 65 For this week it's 156 golfers in the field as of right now and again the top 70 will make it So it's still very tough, but at least it's better than 65 So we'll take that for sure the course is in play for this weekend The primary one is the PGA West stadium course They will play one round there across the first three rounds and then they make it a Sunday They'll play the final round there as well The stadium course is seven thousand one hundred and thirteen yards. It is a parse only two The Lakita country club is seven thousand and sixty yards of parse only two and the PGA West and Nicholas tournament course is 7159 yards and a parse only two again They will play one round at those two and then hopefully two rounds at the stadium course as well Brandon when you look at past events for the American Express when they played this unique format What is stood out to you in terms of you know, what stats stand out for the American Express? So I'll start off by naming you the past five winning scores in the past five cut lines and you Tell me what you think might matter. Okay, I know you've done your research, but starting last year and this last year was the two course rotation, but 23 under winning score before that 26 under 26 under 22 under 20 under past five cut lines minus four minus nine minus nine minus eight minus five So what do you think better games? There you go. These are better gained and then birdies are better games Yes, and when I point out that again all three courses here are par 72's I think we could all infer from that that par five scoring might be important So basically just kind of the same old thing You know, I've really I've really reduced this the key stats I feel like when I when I transfer over last week's to the to the next week's and I'm looking at things. I'm like, well I'm leaving stroke skiing approach at the top because it's always the most important It's basically the most predictive aside from stroke skiing off the tee Sometimes it's it's a distance tweak. Sometimes it's an accuracy tweak And then birdie or better eight always matters because all these courses just go low at this point And you need birdies for vandal points for sure, but to contend you also need to make birdies and then You know, you're you're putting based splits on That particular surface so for me, I mean my key stats or stroke skiing approach Driving distance this week because again, I'll par 72's Although really just the stadium course has kind of shown an importance on Distance par five scoring and then just birdie or better eight. So it feels a little boring That's why I kind of try to try to mix it up a little bit, but it feels like it's been irons and birdies Forever. Yeah, it definitely has been so one thing that's interesting here is that if you go to data golf and check out their Course fit tool it shows you which stats matter more than usual and if you do that for this week It says that Driving accurate driving distance is very important, you know, like more important than usual Whereas accuracy is less for the for the stadium course for the stadium course Correct. If I look back at the past top finishers at the American Express It doesn't quite tell the same tale going back to last year the median ranking of Golfers to finish inside the top 15 in driving distance for the full season across BGH or was 118 the the median ranking for accuracy was 46 going back to 2021 or 2020 I should say median ranking for distance was 82nd median ranking for accuracy was 99 so I did skew towards distance, but then back in 2019 It was 82nd for distance 60 second for accuracy. So To me, I'm actually okay Being a bit higher on accuracy and not caring as much about distance. Yes There are a lot of par fives, but the overall like length of the course is pretty small Especially for a par 72 am I wrong in that interpretation? I mean, that's that's fair if you look at it like if you look at The past winners now one thing I want to point out is that It's usually not the strongest field here, it's usually just like a below average field It's not it's not awful or anything But you know past winners none of these guys really jump off the pages like big hitters But see who came last year Andrew Landry Adam long John Rom, of course the you know a bit of an exception Hudson Swafford Jason Duffner Bill Haas Patrick Reed not gonna keep going but You know like those aren't all big hitters Yeah So I get what you're saying but in terms of Predictability, I still think we can bump up distance a little bit and again the dirty little secret about key stats with PGA DFS at this point is really just you want the best all-around golfers who have the chance to make birdies and You know if that's in this event, you know, sometimes that's tied to guys who are longer. Sometimes it's not So I'm not trying to say like hey, I'm trying to mislead by saying distance is important Statistically distance does show up as more important, right? It doesn't always mean that the longest hitters will win But that also is just kind of a reminder of No one stat aside from like maybe approach or tee to green Like no one stat is so important that you have to have it Even irons if the irons are bad and everything else is good. Sometimes that works out It's just not the best that to make but again, you know, I'm not selling out for distance So I'm with you there. I thought you're gonna say more. Sorry you tailed off as if you had more to say Well, I thought I feel like I made my point. So I didn't want to okay. Yeah. Yeah, it makes a circle in the drain Yeah, so I think that the key for me is I need birdie makers. I don't really care how they get there That's kind of the way I settle out of this And I think that's kind of for me at least the key takeaway from the discussion is If they're not making birdies, they're probably not making lineups I think that's probably the the main thing I would take away from this So let's dive into course history and talk about some guys who have done well in this format before and again Maybe it matters a bit more because it is a three course event outside of last year again We're two courses due to COVID. So maybe we could see some additional Some additional weight here, but let's go back through some guys who have excelled one of those guys is Sung Jae Sung Jae Im is someone I adored last week did not go great What do you see with him in looking at his past data at this event? So, yeah, I'm gonna include last year. I'm not gonna like just roll it out because it's a little silly But Sung Jae is three for three with made cuts at this event He's also three for three with top 12 finishes at the American Express. It's finished 12th 10th and 12th If you're gonna penalize him for maxing out at 10th go ahead, but I'm not gonna do that Sung Jae as we know or I think a lot of people know or at least I talk about this lots It feels like something that a lot of people know plays his best on Bermuda greens, which is what we get this week You know and he's got a good combination of ball striking and birdie prowess that just sort of makes sense that he'd Figure out this type of setup. Well, there's the the reality that Sung Jae, you know just Made his mark on the PGA tour traveling around Drive in place to place like living in hotels. I feel like, you know Rotating courses might be something that doesn't really throw him off as much as some others That's a little bit subjective, of course, but it kind of makes sense in a track. So I'm gonna stick with it Sung Jae in two rounds per year at the stadium courses gained 3.3.7 in minus 2.1 strokes Tita green, which is a little bit worrisome It's kind of all over the place. Nothing that really stands out But again limited sample here even with the shot link over the shot link data last year Putted really well with 7.2 strokes gained across those two shot link rounds But again, that's fine because the Tita green games usually there and you want guys who can make birdies who can putt Well, we know that Sung Jae putts well on Bermuda He's in the 97th percentile and adjusted strokes gained Tita green over the past year according to my data Makes birdies. I think he's like very much in play. I know you were on him last week I think we can go back to him this week. What are your thoughts on Sung Jae? I think he's a contender for the top guy in that non-rom non can't lay a tier and one of the guys pushing him is Abraham answers Let's not answer we can talk about this second tier as a broader discussion Let's be the sixth time Abraham answer has played the American Express and already has three top 20s and two top fives under his belt in that span the top fives that come the past two years He was fifth last year second back in 2020 in 2020 answer gained 6.6 strokes Tita green across his two rounds at the stadium course and 4.8 on the greens. So he tore it up in every aspect in 2021 Answer gained 4.3 Tita green Across his measured rounds slight negative with a short gain there, but finished well So he's good on all the courses. He has shown upside the stadium course, too But he struggled quite a bit recently. He lost 9.1 strokes at the turn of a champions He missed the cut at Sony open. So Both he and Sung Jae are coming off missed cuts, but I like their overall profiles for this week So what's your read on answer entering the week and how do you view the second tier including Sung Jae answer, etc, etc So Sung Jae versus answer I prefer Sung Jae Answer is going through an equipment change That's a little bit more gives me a little bit more weight to You know buy into the quote-unquote struggles. I mean, it's not like it's Red flags everywhere. He didn't putt well at Sony Uh, but for me, I'm gonna go Sung Jae there and then second tier overall I think it's gonna be Who are we considering second tier over like everyone except for ramen can't lay basically Okay, so everyone um, I'm gonna go phenom number one. Okay and then Then probably Sung Jae for me you want to do a Sung Jae phenom bet You have Sung Jae over phenom Uh, man I'll just I'll be cursing My guy Who's also your guy, but I'll do that like okay, so you feel you feel pretty good in ranking phenom about Sung Jae then I think it's very Close Okay, so I'm good with it. Okay. I'll take that then. I do like Sung Jae decent amount more for this week The putting is a difference maker for me. And again, I am valuing like, you know Accuracy a bit more and that does skew towards Sung Jae versus phenom Um, so that's why I feel good there and I think that it's Sung Jae to me is probably the number one guy if we Lop off ramen can't lay I do like some guys in the 10,000 range quite a bit Which could influence our discussion later on in terms of like roster construction But to me, I do think that Sung Jae am a really solid play The course history helps, but it's everything else that does push me there for him. Okay. It's almost some lower salary guys They're starting off with Andrew Landry 8500 dollars What do his past results say at the American Express? Um, so if you looked at his recent results going backwards, you would wonder What like what the justification might be he's gone cut cut seventh fourth Or sorry cut cut seventh cut fourth cut Too many cuts to read all at once. Um, but again when he's made the cut it's been it's been pretty solid But you could say okay, so he's a high-risk high reward type of option and does he make sense this week and maybe He's finished 64th first 28th second and missed cut at the American Express in his five tries again working backwards, so You know with all those missed cuts in there, believe it or not Landry was in worse form before his win than he is now Um, a seventh and a fourth can do a lot to kind of overcome your recent form Um, and if your missed cuts aren't that bad, which I haven't dug into Andrew Landry Not really on my radar just to say, you know with with full confidence that his missed cuts were um, you know justifiable, but you know it's it's kind of telling maybe that he comes into this event with Iffy form has, you know, three top 30s Made the cut last year Bermudas is only positive putting surface Again, the recent data is pretty forgettable, but is there anything for you with landry that gets you excited? Not really um Like there's just a lot of red in the sheet when I look at his name and it's tough for me to get over that I know like he said the Form has been bad entering this event previously, but it's hard for me to Because it could have just been fluke I know he it's been more than one year because he had the the runner-up in addition to the win so it's not just a one-time thing, but like The odds we get the downsides when a guy's form is bad coming in Are high and that's my concern here so the high end finishes are good and I I think that like They're encouraging and mean that he does the path upside I just don't sure I'm not sure if there's enough there to convince me The odds he reaches that upside are high enough to actually use in this week Yeah, I think that that salary range and like the mid eight thousands give or take is I won't say it's loaded, but nobody really stands out and I feel like there are I had a hard time narrowing down those options I don't think landry is going to separate if anything I would just sort of assume that he'll be a little bit more popular Because of the event form So I'll be out on Andrew Landry and if it burns me. I think it was justifiable Yeah, kind of a similar discussion with Michael Thompson. He's he's shown upside at this course or at this event and he's shown upside recently So let's talk about him the same salary too as later to $8,500. He's coming off fifth at the Sony open Now going to a course where he's done well previously Thompson has been to the American Express six times before Two of those are missed cuts. He was 56 and another so three Whatever events but the past three trips have been a ninth a cut and a fifth Last year Thompson gained 4.7 strokes P. D. Green across his measured rounds Stayed in course. He gained 1.5 on the greens there at the Sony last week. Thompson Struggled off the tee, but still gained 7.2 T to green and 2.5 on the green So the the driving was bad Everything else is pretty good. Overall Thompson I think it's under salaryed. I would just worry if he became popular Due to the good finishes both the recently and at the course, you know, you see those good finishes on both ledgers that can lead to increased popularity Not sure he merits that necessarily, but I do think he's a bit under salary So what's your read on Michael Thompson here at seven or $8,500? Yes, he's 75 to 1 If you look at everyone else in that range, we're looking at 160s 120s 190s Scott Pierce. He's 280 He's going to stand out there really just dug gim is below you know shorter than 100 to 1 In that in that range and I think that that's going to drive a lot of popularity Toward Thompson not to the point that he'll be a top five play in terms of popularity, but You know taking out what should be maybe a five percent play or a seven percent play up to like 12 or 13 again, it's it feels a little nitpicky but Whenever there's not so much that Makes you feel like you have to play him I'd rather just probably divest as you would put it one thing I will point out is that and you know, this was again something that you um alluded to his irons for what carried him last week. Yeah and He's coming off of a long break Before that hadn't played since November. So like maybe Something's clicking and like maybe it's a start but usually one one week of data. It's not enough This is around that time where it's like a little bit more Uh viable, but I would say um Thompson versus Landry Give me Thompson 10 times out of 10. Correct. I agree that uh because Thompson's a good Bermuda putter and I think that's Like you were talking about Landry. It's only positive surface. It's not a good He's not a good Bermuda putter whereas I think Thompson kind of is um, so to me if you give me Thompson's gonna put the ball in the fairway He's gonna put well if you were to give me like guarantee that the approach From last week stuck. I'd be very in I just don't think that's the most likely scenario for a guy who's 36 You know, you don't expect a big deviations in skill at that point. So I'm okay being skeptical. There are some guys I like in that range and that does Change things as well for me Let's move now to the current forum discussion. Talk about guys who are playing well right now One of them is shameless power did not give me the win for the win picks last week But hey, he was in contention. He pushed for it. My guy shameless power Lighten up the scoreboard. You're talking about him here. He's 10 6 What do you see with shameless power now and how should we view him for this week? Yeah, so power is by my count and it's hard to count sometimes One of seven golfers to have played the tournament of champions and the sony so pretty rare Form to be in this field and have played the past two weeks In those he finished 15th and third respectively So again flirting with that win for jim, but didn't quite get there. I'm sure jim will pick him a few more times throughout the season That's a goal. Yeah Wow, you mean throughout the month. I'm not even gonna wait that long. Yeah This week. I feel like it's coming Prior to that he was fourth at the rsm cut at the Houston open 11th at mayakoba And like that's good enough form without even digging into the stats Like you you don't really put your way to That many good results Over that like over that that's that big of a sample size Salary of 10,600 definitely puts him in play for me and he's got really good t-degree numbers He's got good bermuda putting splits. I don't really want to overthink this one The question that we haven't yet asked Is we have john rom we have patrick antley we have a pretty somewhat juicy second tier Someone like power is going to kind of not be able to be someone that we can Prioritize if we play rom and or can't I'll say or can't like more realistically Then get your sung j or your fina or your answer Probably not going to be able to get back up to this tier, but this tier is actually pretty good So what are your thoughts on power or if you want to talk about russell henley first We can maybe We do a broader discussion of this 10,000 range and what we want to do there I think that is important because henley is part of the reason why I might be interested in Getting in this tier more often than I otherwise might so henley You know didn't finish how he might have wanted last week, but hey, you know, he was in contention that counts You know close enough. Um, he gained 8.8 0x t-degree at the sony and 5.9 putting he's Very good under muta. So to me that's pretty translatable to this week Henley now leads the field and approach the past 50 rounds He's one of the guys who benefits from a potentially less distance heavy course at least in my eyes He's hot. He's 10-5 He's likely to have some eyes on him after a near win, but also hey, maybe the the finish to that one Gives people some pause and I think we're seeing that a bit in the betting odds Also, course history for henley real bad at the american express like real bad, but I still think he's very interesting. So I think power is interesting. I think that henley is very interesting so to me, I think the way I might want to approach this is Get a romer can't lay or Get a sung jay or an answer And then have my second golfer regardless you have at the top be in this second tier Kind of think that's where i'm leaning right now because this tier is so good What about you thoughts on henley thoughts on? um Power and then just roster construction in jeff Okay, so a few things I wanted to say I have you know past optimals for the past two years at the american express And I I assumed the 54 hole cut that both of these would be really balanced Uh lineups because the best golfers would be able to separate We did not have that in 2020 That lineup that optimal actually spent only 51 400 um That's a little surprising But we had a a minimum salary sep straka who at the time You know we we've talked plenty sep straka a minimum salary sam burns at angeliandry Winning at 81 bud collie and then abe answer and scottie sheffler just around 10 000 so like If you get a winner at 81 you get a minimum salary sam burns like pre breakout that makes sense So I don't want to say that that's going to be typical Um, also with john rom and cantlay here. I'm not going to Say that the winner is going to be below like 8500. I very much doubt that. Um last year we had 59 400 which is much more of what you'd expect patrick cantlay 11 8 tony finnell 11 2 See who kim 99 cameron davis 93 francesca millenari 87 and then michael tomsen 85 so nobody below 85 So again, my thought process is 54 hole cut It is going to make it much easier for the better golfers to separate. It's going to be less volatile That leads me to a prioritizing a more balanced lineup approach So I want john rom in my head to heads I like tony finnell a lot, but I think potentially My head-to-head against you is going to go rom Possibly if I need to skip over The song j finnell tier to get to power henley Uh camtrink all these tend to I could see will's alatourist. Maybe Um at 10 4 patrick green 10 8 taylor guj 10 7 like that's most likely what i'm going to do If you go rom power henley, it's 89 33 left You would need like a tomsen type guy or someone i'd not tomsen specifically because like there are some guys down there um also in the low 9 000 range there are One two couple guys who I don't three guys. I don't mind too much. Um, so you can make that work But if you go like sung j for your top guy at 11 4 sung j power henley is 91 67 left It's not bad. Um, so I think that using Two of them is in play But also if you want more if you want less of a chaotic bill going rom Pick your poison between power and henley You know as as a second golfer 93 25 left. That's not bad either. Maybe you get back up into the 10 000 range kind of organically there um, but I think that to me When I look at the way this field breaks down, I think it does make sense to Be high on this mid range to me that does mean I like power. Um, I like henley I do like Cameron Tringale. You you mentioned him kind of in passing. Um Not opposed to taylor gooch. I would prefer a guy who makes a bit more a couple more birdies But like not entirely opposed to him but I think that there are options here and so Getting at least one potentially two guys in this range to me is going to be my preferred way to build things this weekend So, yeah It's really hard to rank those guys or talk about those guys without the bigger context because we have john rom sitting there at 12 1 Right. Um, you know, that's a very reasonable salary for him. Yeah for sure um His win odds are plus 600 on fandals sports book My win sim model has that as like fair, which usually when guys never happens. Yeah, it's not fair But yeah, because camp smith was like plus 650 last week and that was like not Not even close. Um So I think we got to just discuss that Um throughout the show a little bit more once we get into player picks see who we're really going to prioritize because It's going to be really hard to build a head-to-head lineup without john rom I know camp smith disappointed last week is the chalk but John rom's a little bit different Also, like if you Are playing a head-to-head and don't use john rom your opponent's probably going to use him And it's you're probably going to regret that so head-to-head I would just use it to block effectively because over 54 guaranteed holes that that goes back to the volatility the The larger sample helping the better golfers. Yeah for tournaments We can have that discussion for cash games You just use john rom and I think he's pretty easily over can't lay for me. Um for that format. So Uh, that's the way I do that. Okay, let's talk about some uh, some non-studs and talk about their form You're sorry about the kh lee. Uh, lee is 9 000. I believe you used him last week Or we may have discussed him at some point. I think his name came up regardless. He's 9 000. What do you see with his recent data? I did use him in our head-to-head. Um, which I won which you won. Yeah, so Sorry, buddy rusty because I had russell hemley Yeah, blame it on the hemley Okay, so kh lee who is a stud definitely off the course at least I think we could say that for the next guy as well but Um, not necessarily a stud in the dfs sense. So I get where you're going, but I wanted to make that clarification Lee is another one of the seven golfers with the You know the toc plus sony combination results weren't great 48th at sony 33rd at the toc But made the cut at the sony should be in gear should be kind of You know have the the rust knocked off. I have been the 88th percentile and adjusted t to green play in this field over the past year With plus marks in all three stroke skin t to green categories He's just not a good putter. Uh, and we have a lot of those prototypes this week, but You know, those are heat check favorites usually, um Now his birdie numbers are below average. It's not what you want this week You're gonna have to go low. That's my main concern with him But he has made two straight cuts here with a 21st and a 32nd Could you see yourself playing kh Lee this week? Given that he's played a lot recently or you kind of look in elsewhere. Maybe Around 9,000 I think in like a lot of fields I could be into kh Lee just because like he has a decent profile for a 9000 golfer I think this week there are guys that like more in that range Like I think because we have A handful of options I like I probably won't wind up getting there So it's not anything where I'm like opposed to him I'm just not as into him as I am others and there are enough guys down there who I like But that also means, you know, I'm Talking myself into a healthy number of guys in that low range, which can always be a little dangerous So do you agree with the sentiment that the 9000 the low 9000 high 8000 range is actually kind of nice this weekend? um I could say the I could say like the The the the bigger drawback for me is the low 9000 range. I don't want to commit to saying that that's a good range I feel like that range is actually pretty weak. You don't like Muñoz your boy. Sebastian Muñoz. He is his He's not quite what he was. He's he has as fine as possible Finds okay for 9000 I would say Maybe maybe kh Lee Maybe Uh, Sebastian Muñoz I have more interest in taking a stab at a gary woodland at 93 But if you tell me like you're way in on brendan todd No, um fill Russell knocks adam long. Whoa. Whoa. Whoa. That's not let's not This is not let Russell knocks catch strays. Oh, this is the let's let's be kind This is the low 9000 range. I know but Russell knocks doesn't need this slander in his life. I've talked to me. Is he a player pick? Yeah I mean, it's fine. I just I didn't expect it Then do it I like I spent A lot of time yesterday staring at guys and I was like, oh, I could talk myself into this person Oh, they're bringing you to putting is terrible. Oh, I can talk myself into this person Oh, they're bringing you to putting is terrible. It was uh, it was a trip yesterday for sure. Yeah This morning when I was finalizing my pick. So it was you basically take like the 9500 to 8000 range For the most part, you can kind of make a case for a lot of those guys And you're like, which of these eight names do I like the most? I'm looking at this guy. Well, here's the issue with him So I'm gonna bump him down But then you do that and then you just keep cycling back and you're like, I guess I'm back to this guy at the top so That's that's kind of I feel about the the value this week. They all have red flags I think that's for sure Which is why it's going to be a week to pick your studs and rotate into values Agreed. So let's talk about a mid-range play We might not be into the mid-range all that much if we are going with a couple of guys in the 10,000 range But someone to target if we do wind up going with a bit more bounce where you're in the high 9000 range I think that johnny vegas is interesting. We talked a lot about him during the swing season This is his first event of 2022. So Might be some rust, but it's also worth remembering what he was doing back then and why we were discussing him vegas finished 2021 having made the cut in 14 of his final 16 events Neither of the missed cuts was all that concerning He did it with good all-around play Uh, he's averaged gaining a 4.8 strokes t to green over his past 10 events He is at 3.4 over the past 20. So Good numbers over a larger sample too The short game concerns are still there, but he makes birdies. His approach play is still really solid Are you in on johnny vegas? You're at 9700 dollars? um for the sake of time and efficiency, i'm gonna say yes, and um, maybe we'll talk about him a little bit later Oh, maybe we will maybe we'll talk to him twice In the player picks later on we both love him this week All in on vegas, baby. Let's go. Let's take a look at the bookmaker odds afford this weekend at the american express John rom has mentioned is the favorite of andrel sport's book. He is six to one patrick cantlay Only other guy in that tier. He is plus 750 and the jumps all the way down to scotty chef for a 19 to one Sung j m is 21 to one with tony finow and kory connors at 24 to one taylor gucch and abraham answer Are both 29 to one followed by matthew wolf at 31 to one. Sheamus powers at 32 And then patrick reid Rounds out the top group at 34 to one. So rom and cantlay are the two standouts We know how to view them for cash games. We use rom How are you viewing those two guys for tournaments? Uh, I like cantlay as a pivot. I think he's going to be great pivot. He'll still be chalky himself Because he's the most obvious, you know pivot away from rom especially for those lineups that Maybe build around the other plays and then can't quite get back up to john rom But also people who maybe build a lineup with rom submit that duplicate it and flip in cantlay, but realistically, I mean It is extremely hard to envision a scenario where john rom is You know irrelevant this week I have his made cut odds at I think 91 percent And so, you know that that factors in yeah, 91.2 percent That factors in the extra round of him to sort of separate avoid missing the cut You know, you need more than just a made cut here But let's say about 10 percent where he is an awful play because he does miss the cut, but he's still playing, you know Three rounds there Um, maybe another 10 percent where he makes the cut and it's just like flirting with 40th, which I don't know. I mean that seems unlikely. I think john rom is just a lock in your in your cash games and realistically not that hard of a sell in tournaments because You can build around him With what's almost a guaranteed high floor And then you can differentiate by rotating in pivoting off of the other chalky plays Lower down in the salary tier. Yeah So I think the discussion for me with rom is how much of the other guys do I want like if I want to live in the Henley and power range I'm kind of allocating one roster slot. So 100 percent aggregate exposure to Someone else like at the top range. So and I'm not going to go with that roster approach construction for every lineup But like, you know, hypothetically We're looking at that kind of thing. So if I have 100 percent of exposure to allocate across rom can't lay sung j If we go with, you know, probably answer, I guess too, I'd like to have in there Um, to me, maybe I shouldn't go answer given the Recent struggles. Okay. So let's go If I have rom sung j and can't lay, I would say 60 percent rom 20 can't lay 20 sung j the one way I might tweak that would be to go 15 can't lay 25 I did do math 25 sung j So I think to me a 60 rom type situation even in tournaments is probably fine I could see the pitch for going lower is that if you think that scoring is pretty bunched up That increases randomness. Uh, despite the fact there are you know, three Rounds before the cut you could say, okay, if other guys can score well It makes it harder for rom to separate and that could be a pitch for being lower on him But I still think he's worth about 60 in tournaments for me Yeah, um The case against rom is that he doesn't win And that you know, someone maybe like a tony phenel does win. Yeah, you know and I thought I thought that would draw a bigger reaction from you Could you just refuse to say tony phenel's name? But what do you mean? You you keep saying every answer I'm not as sick of him as I am. I know I know I know I find it insulting. Um, why does not that win juice? It's just kidding tony phenel always has win juice. He's got it. He's gonna have it this week. Um, so phenel. Oh, are we, uh We're doing win bets now call him a shot here. Okay. Okay. So phenel Uh, like if phenel wins kory connor's answer someone else You know, and we have one or two other guys in his tier finish With what john rom can do Uh, that's whenever john rom is deemed irrelevant. However Probability wise john rom is going to be up there. And so you can have like, uh You know, I have them about 50 to top 10 Whereas kory connor's is 23. So let's just call it double like yeah, okay. Let's say kory connor's You know and and john rom are t 10 here and you should be like why couldn't you speak kory connor's The odds of that happening are not nearly as good. So I still think that john rom You know, the only way that he is an awful play is that he misses the cut and even then he's gonna have three rounds Yep, so he's like he's Three rounds He's gonna be making birdies. The only way he's gonna miss the cut is not if he doesn't make any birdies it's gonna be because he has like Two quadruple bogies and then he's so I don't know I just even a tournament. I think the answer is to be overweight on john rom this week Okay, so let's move now uh to odds movement since things open which golfer's odds have shifted Since things open over at fandals work So I was a little bit delayed to pull these I I pulled around two p.m. Monday. I don't know if you have anything That's all I'd say shameful Well, it was Company holiday, yep How dare you take a day off after doing work earlier in the day I still wrote some some content, but I have uh taylor gucch shortening from 36 to 29 patrick reed from 36 to 34 seawool kim from 55 to 46 brian harman 90 to 85 taylor moor 120 to 100 adams fenson 120 to 110 kramer hiccock 190 to 120 And then hayden buckley and herald barner from 160 to 120 So I talked about guccia earlier like referenced him at least as being a guy who You know, I thought was at least in consideration, but probably have him below Uh power and henley seems as though betters disagree. So what's your read on taylor guccia who's now down to 29 to 1? Um, would you want to give me guccia versus henley? No, I like henley. Why would I do that? What about guccia versus power? No, I like power. I told you that I ranked them above him. What do you mean? I said that I ranked them above him. Yeah, I'm saying I'll take taylor guccia over those guys. Oh Okay, okay Um, are you offering it for both or for either it's like and pick which one or what? Um pick one um Give me Dead air I like both. So it's hard to choose. I'll take both then I'll take both That's henley just henley I like henley more. I like okay. I like henley more. I've decided it is it is final I like henley my favorite guy in that range henley power gucci boy All right tap So you're into taylor guccia a lot then I like all three of them, but I just I felt like making a bet so I could Curse taylor guccia and lose because um jim just destroys me in podcast bets Tresing taylor guccia would be pretty fun to just yell guccia at the tv I feel like that's a fun way to spend my thursday. So, you know I kind of hope you burn the just so I can do that be mad at him. You could do that. Yes Yeah, I will I will promise Uh, which lower salary golfers have odds that that stand out to you So like kind of a lot but realistically not many. Um, we have some golfers at 70 So if I look at golfers with salaries of 9 000 or below on fan duel We have three at 75 to one. That's jason day lucas glover michael thompson We have someone at 90 to one. That's thug yim taylor moore is 100 to one adam spenson's 110 k h lee Oh, wait, sorry. This is a just a massive tier. I couldn't really not talk about these guys because then it's only five But all of these golfers are 120 to one k h lee sebastian muneo's Chez ravey lonto griffin denny mccarthy brendan steel patrick rogers andrew landry kramer hickok and hayden buckley None of them really separate Yeah, I was gonna say like if you look at my like if there were a log like a A search history of fantasy national pages I think I would have hit most of those guys at some point within the past 24 hours. Um, I did not check out lonto. Sorry. Um, didn't check out chez Um, hickok or buckley did not but I did I did look at glover thompson gim venson cage lee muneo's I did all those They all had the red flags, but like I think that you can justify any of them too Yeah, it's really That's why it really feels like You know, if you think it's sung jay and not tony finaw this week Don't play any like if you're voting your 10 lineups or whatever Don't even bother, you know mixing up the studs as much because you're probably going to want to mix up these guys Of course, if you have a different read on it, that's fine. But I think the way that you and I are both seeing it is A lot of names in contention, but nobody really getting up over that hump to want to like say Yeah, this is my this is my value play for the week. Yeah, where is your conviction? My conviction is with the studs for this week, which means on john robb having a good week Bold very bold my conviction is picking the right studs this week I do not have any conviction about the value play So I'll rotate through and just hope that I hit the right combination with the studs that I use whether for this week Looks fine. Uh, there's nothing wrong here. So I wish I were in my speed. Uh, yeah, it would be great So i'm trudging through A foot of snow trying to walk the dog while she's losing her mind Uh, you know would take it would take it for sure. I'm sure benny and june love walks too. So Can late you to shovel though. I don't to shovel Oh, yeah, we my boyfriend shoveled for like two hours yesterday Sounds delightful. Anyway, let's talk about our player picks here for the american express brandon Which golfers are you targeting the upper tier on fan duel for this week? I'm gonna say john wrong because Yes, he's an obvious cash gameplay, but I think that I'm gonna be overweight on him in tournaments I would expect him to be about 45 40 percent rostered maybe Um, I'm cool going higher than that 60 70 75 somewhere in there Um, I know that I'll have to you know get a little bit more creative down at the lower end of my Uh roster, but I'm fine with that because again a lot of guys in play, but realistically like Romit at six to one is like a fair value which is is crazy. Um, to me Across my adjusted stroke scan stats over the past year He is 91st percentile or better in all four of those categories um The argument against him is game theory and the argument against the game theory argument is that he's guaranteed 54 holes to prove that he's the best in the field which he is so like I it's it's such a hard like i'm getting pulled like with the Hey I know the data says just just he's not he's not as likely to win. He's gonna be rostered don't play him In tournaments versus like he's gonna finish top 10 like top 15. It's gonna be fine. So When you can get those guaranteed points, uh, that goes a long way whenever you're trying to maximize probability of Getting all 10 of your golfers to finish Top 10 if you plug in 50 for one of those guys, it's gonna help a lot Yeah, and that's why he's my top guy too, especially for cash games. You just use rom um, the reason why it's harder for me to go like Underweight on him in tournaments is that we've seen him like recently too Um played the toc finish second there gained 9.6 t degree in 4.3 putting so like How do we not see the toc? You can make the pitch. Okay. We haven't seen in a while Maybe he's taken some well-deserved time off because he's had a weird year. Um, like he does He earned some rest and relaxation He might have taken it but didn't matter. So like that's another, you know Reason to lop that off. He has won in this format before did that back in 2018. So I think that you can make the pitch of A larger pool of guys can compete this week because there are so many birdies available and only it matters I think that rom is still The play for cash games and a good play for tournaments Let's move up to our other guys here in this upper range. Who else are you targeting for this week? Uh, Jim's new nemesis tony finau. How dare you really good across the board when it comes to the t degree part of the game It's getting that 54 guaranteed holes, which I know I keep like Talking about but I think that that's super relevant whenever we can get it Um, and that leaves me a little bit more to a balanced build if I am building lineups without rom in tournaments I think it's starting with with finau most likely Um, you know, he's not the best bermuda putter by any means, but he's really close to neutral over his past 100 rounds I finished 14th and fourth here the past two years really the salary is low enough to treat him as an anchor or as Like an anchor with a bound more balanced build or as it may be getting back up to him with the second guy And then a value heavy lineup with rom I want you to text tony in your group chat and tell him that I I like him still Well, he's in the youtube chat listening to us now. Oh, sorry. What's up tony? It's a big part of his process every week. Yeah, I got to get those insights. So appreciate it for sure tony Uh, I just don't like him as much as sung j. Like that's that's the hang up for me and like, you know, that's fine Sung jms I'm sure he would understand because he appreciates how great sung jm is So I think he gets it. But that's that's what all takes all is it My second high salary guys rustle henley at 10 5 He can make birdies even when distance is a thing and you know looking back at past golfers have done well here And it may not be as much of an issue for this week Henley it's 8th in the field and birdies are better gained over the past 50 rounds 13th and fairways gained first in approach. So The ball striking should be elite He's also not bad as a Bermuda putter. He is 48th there He has missed the cut and forced rate american expresses. Uh, that could be the the major concern He's never finished better than 49th. I think across six trips to this this event Um, and he wasn't great form entering last year's event still missed the cut I'm still going to give him a ride here What's your main hang up with henley makes you hate him versus taylor gooch? I literally have nothing bad to say about rustle henley only good things You're not worried about the Course history or anything because I like I'm not enough to push me off But like if you were I would note that at least um So data golf has basically everything but they have a tool that I mean, they really have a lot of stuff They have a they have a tool that shows Uh, a course history and how guys perform at particular courses, but along with that They show how predictive And how important course history is at certain courses and all three of these courses It's quite low. I don't think that that is that that his Poor performance at this event is something that we should really Worry about because he's honestly the best iron player in the field this week he is So good with his irons That leads to such a high floor So i'm not going to talk myself out of henley in lineups where I need him Because of what happened last week Okay, let's move down to the mid-range then who stands out to you there jonathan vegas. Let's go 9700 Pretty long win odds like for someone at 97 generally, but it's kind of fine Not the best bermuda putter really neutral there I'm over his past 100 rounds, which I'll take neutral Bermuda putting whenever it comes with the other stuff that vegas brings Again, I'm looking for a little bit more distance and par 5 ability this week than jim is but we're still kind of both on on vegas anyway Super long off the tee 97th percentile there Over the past 50 rounds ton of birdies 98th percentile according to fantasy national as well Just such a good ball striker neutral putting works Should be able to score on the par fives Yeah, so i have vegas is my top mid-range guy too and that's despite the fact like he said we're looking for slightly different things this week Where I do want to value accuracy and vegas does not gain fairways He's 135th there according to fantasy national, but he has 65th and good drives gained So when he misses he's not missing in like a super detrimental way After that very good golfer 13th in approach fourth and birdies are better gained as you mentioned I think he's under salary to 9 7 so I will take him for sure. I think the vegas to me Like if I get back into that range He will be the guy I turn to there, uh for sure. Who else do you like in this mid-range? I'm gonna go I'm gonna go look list The luke list luke list. Yeah. Whoa. Yeah, huh Do you want more? Sure Uh, so list look we know that he doesn't pot well He's awful. I don't even need to name the stats. They're they're so bad that I I think Like the FCC would take us offline if I said if I read a lot of what his putting stats were But I know the FCC rules. They'd be fine with it. Like we're not regulated, bro The sec will let me be uh, but we can overlook some of that because he's get He's getting that extra round jim That's he's getting around this more pots. Let's go Is a larger sample a good thing for luke list? Yes, because the ball striking will win out over a longer sample So he's more likely to make the cut I think You think it should work. Um, but should it entering uh, or really ending last season He finished 11th and 10th at the Houston Open and the rsm respectively Some mixed results at the amex but does include two top 25s and seven tries Really just rates out if you can buy a long-term form course fit. Um The hole-by-hole scoring distributions One of the better plays in the mid-range the the biggest question is can I get back up to a 96? Because you're not going to be like a straight-up core play that being said I also don't want to say that I love Someone in the low 9,000 range Although I would be fine if I you know build a lineup that I like And I I have 9500 so I can't get the list just to play gary woodland Uh, do you want to do a bet with list? It would very obviously depend on uh christian bezaden out um The win odds say I shouldn't I'm gonna say yes for the fact that uh, bezaden how is so good with his short game That This week it matters a little bit less. So I'm gonna say I'm gonna say yes Okay, so we have bezaden how versus list We have henley versus gucci and we have finau versus Sung jay, correct? Yeah For me over you. It's finau over sung jay gucci over henley list over bezaden how and list bezaden how it is Like the the true dichotomy of how long last names can be I like it Um speaking of which let's talk about rustle knocks, uh the four letter last name He's brutal on bermuda. So i'm just trashing luke list and now i'm talking up rustle knocks sweet story, bro Hasn't stopped knocks from having success here previously though. Uh, he's played the american express seven times He has been top 23 times He's going to put the ball in the fairway. He's ninth in approach He gained 7.1 t to green last week at the sony as long as he doesn't implode on the greens, which could happen Uh, he should contend for a good finish again So I like knocks a 91 you seem out. Uh, is it because of the putting? I assume Yeah, and I mean like I get it I'm low on knocks You're low on list Doesn't really make a lot of sense Because I bet list who's a bad putter. Would you bet me with knocks versus gary woodland? Uh, this might be our most most bets I define woodland Uh, yeah, I'd do that sure Like woodland makes more birdies. I should I shouldn't make that bet, but whatever verbal it's a verbal binding agreement. No, I agree. It's fine. I'd you know Should I make that bet probably not but like whatever it's fine. We'll should I bet anyone should I ever bet anything involving luke list? No So we're both making mistakes You can bet people to miss the cut if you want, you know, like that's that's an option in most sports books So, you know, just Oh, let's go down to value range. Uh nine a thousand and lower. Who are you targeting there? lonto griffin 800 on vandal He's got the red flags. He's got some he's got one specifically. It's with the wedges 19th percentile but Data golf shows that this is one of the easiest weeks Of the year to pick up strokes gained around the green So I think that great wedge players lose a little bit of an edge weaker players get a bit of a bump On the outside of that griffin's really good. We know that he's someone we talk about all the time With being just balanced 76 percentile adjusted iron play And 78th percentile adjusted putting over the past year Yeah, so I think lonto's fine like the Um, I think not I think I think moon use is fine Yeah, so I'll talk about moon use here It's weird because he's inconsistent, but he's also like well rounded and it's a very weird I don't know like the all-around stats are well rounded, but he's inconsistent So it's a strange way that that works But uh moon use 66th are better in fairways gained approach birdies are better gain and bermuda putting He has turned that into some upside. Uh, he was third at the rsm Fourth at the zozo during the swing season He has a lot of miscuts in that profile too. Um, he's inconsistent But he's $9,000. He has upside. I like his stats profile overall So I like moon use. I think he's kind of like griffin where he's fine, but like I'd rather take the fine with moon use. I agreed with you. I said that I agreed with you Yes, you said it, but I agreed with you. There's no contradiction here Okay, okay Okay, I've never I've never met Like I've never listened to a pod where two people did agree so much, but have a hard time Getting there sometimes. So that's the goal, baby. Gotta create conflict where there is none Who else do you like in the value range? Pat and kazire 8500 just similar case With lonto where good irons 74th percentile good putting 77th percentile If he wedges though 36 percentile So kind of playing that like not and again, it's just just the stadium course where we know that it's easy Don't know shot link data at the other two courses, but I could call him an s tier bermuda putter gym 98th percentile I think that would classify in gaining a very nice 0.69 strokes per round over his past 100 on bermuda Don't mind kazire at all. Thank you. He's totally fine at $8500. Where do you view kazire compared to We talked about landry early and we talked about thompson I feel like kazire is probably first of that group. Do you agree? Yeah first? Okay pretty easily for you Yeah, I think so too. I'd rather play alex I don't I don't know if it's smelly or smally yet, but 85. I'd rather play him too at the same time That makes sense. Um, my second low salary guy is tremer. We have not said his name yet But I think tremer. It's pretty interesting fun combo where he hits fairways, but also makes birdies He's 17th and fairways gained according to fantasy national over the past 50 rounds But also 15th and birdies are better gained The big issue is approach But he's been getting a bit better there recently. He's gained at least 1.9 strokes in approach and three straight measured events He's 36 years old. So you don't expect big gains, but Seeing him be decent there is encouraging given the rest of his profile He's $8700. I am okay with merit for sure. Uh, what about you? What's your read on him for this week? He's actually one of the better He's actually one of the better values below 9 000 for me Um, I haven't 58th percentile of the past year and adjusted to iron play. So not that bad Good short game I could see it, but probably just not going to get there myself but that's less of a Of a merit problem and more of just I got to Lop off some guys eventually and I think that this whole discussion of the value plays is kind of reaffirmed the idea that we should be Building around the studs differentiate with the values. I think that's kind of the standout to me at least For sure Okay, let's finish up with our win picks. I'm not picking shameless power this week promise. Wow. That's a first I know we're reaching out this entire season It's the second podcast No, the season jim not the year I picked him in every event. He's been in I'm obviously joking. Oh I I believed you But also this the pga tour season Okay began Last year. Okay, so let's go based on the current odds over at vandal sportsbook. You get two Win picks two outrides to bets. Who are you taking at their current odds? I gotta play tony finau here. Okay So finau was in at 24 to 1 for me And I would say taylor guge 29. Okay, uh, so you have guge and finau I'm gonna go Sung j in at 21 to 1 and I'm gonna go with Blame it on the henley at 36 to 1 He's gonna get a get the job done this week. I know Asking a guy to contend and back to back weeks is tough But if I ignore his finish last week and just look at things straight up I think he's undervalued at 36 to 1. So I'll take uh Sung j and henley for this week That is all that we have what go ahead. Sorry No, I just say henley's gotta like he's gotta he's gotta get over that That three wood from hedecki in the playoff because I don't think I'll ever forget that and I don't know if he'll be able to do it either But I'm good pick jim. Good pick I believe in the mental Not stability the the mental toughness. I don't know whatever I believe in rustle henley to get over it and win Win get the job done at the american express. He got the win juice for this week That is all that we have here for our american express preview podcast as mentioned though Make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast for nba Pga nascar and ufc podcast all in the same place at the same time also nfl. I forgot nfl. We have three more nfl podcasts Okay, cool jim. Uh, those are thursdays Heading into each weekend Also live at 10 a.m. On the fan dual youtube page brandon if people have questions for you on twitter Where can they find you there? mcgoodwill 13 gd ula 1 3 and i'm at jim saunas j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your dfs lineups to the american express We'll talk to you once again next week. This has been the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire