 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Wyndham Clark is your 2023 US Open champion and who could have possibly seen that coming other than our guest for today Brandon can do lower talk to him about the travelers championship breakdown Wyndham's win and hopefully see if Brandon can pick out another winner for us this week in the PGA tour This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire joined here as mentioned by branding a doula check him out on Twitter at good doula 13. He is the senior managing editor of number fire calm and Brandon you do your picks for golf digest every week and You send in a one straight up bet and one long shot Twice this year you've been on Wyndham Clark eight into one or longer and he has come through so is Wyndham Clark now officially Your favorite golfer or do you are you still holding out on Xander Shuffle? Xander stole my guy because I relate to him a lot But yeah, I mean it was cool to learn a little bit more about Wyndham Clark I Didn't get the full swing treatment. So didn't know a whole lot about him just knew that you know statistically long term was on the upswing and You know just shout out to the model to keep everything objective and find the value You know It's tough coming off of a win. I mean, it's it's really it's like it's nice to come off a win Obviously, but then it feels like there's some pressure to follow it up Which is difficult, but you know the the model is still trucking along and we'll see what we get for this week At a course that we've actually seen a lot Now I will say, you know Wyndham Clark Phenomenal short game and without that Would not have won, but that's a big part of golf and it was it was really tough because like yeah, I Mean, I love, you know having having the model work out obviously, you know things of that nature will just say But boy I was I was kind of fine with any of the outcomes if it was going to be Rory Ricky or Wyndham Clark, so it's kind of heartbreaking, but either way would have been heartbreaking for somebody. Yeah, so I had the Wyndham outright based on Just loving Wyndham Clark So I had that I did hedge with Rory a bit during the day on Sunday Just kind of give myself a little bit of wiggle room But also like kind of like you said, I love Rory McElroy and I don't want to root against him so like it was partially financially motivated to give myself that that that Increased chance of having a profit for the weekend a really big profit whether it was Wyndham or Rory But also I allowed myself to not root against Rory McElroy, which is not something I typically want to do So if I could look at it just like a golf fan perspective. It was awesome to see Wyndham Clark win it was really fun to Watch him wiggle his way out of some rough shots at times Has a good fortune for sure and it was fun to watch that but also was a bummer to watch Rory come close again and Once again, not quite get there So my hope is that when odds of the open come up and I've bet ahead of time For this but my hope is that Rory can be like a defensible bet then so I can like bet with my heart and bet Rory there so I can have both the Financial motivation, but also like the I just want this guy to finally win a freaking major again motivation as well Yeah, I was rooting for for Ricky too. Yeah, as soon as I saw this that where he made like 18 straight putts from within 15 feet It's like the odds of making that many five feet putts is very low So it was it was bound to come back to earth But yeah, I mean like the thing is if you told me, you know, sometimes I think oh if I learned this information Before everything started and if I learned that Wyndham Clark would lose strokes approach. There's no way, you know that that you would want to get there but second off the tee third around the green fourth and putting That's It's an outlier and I just I especially feel bad for Rory too because he would have beaten everyone by two shots Right otherwise, so so hopefully you can bounce back at the open Hopefully I could be on him there. It'll be tough field given the way a lot of the studs played I mean can Smith looked really good. Obviously, Scottie Scheffler had his issues, but May not have played his best golf, but still finished third. So it's kind of wild that a guy can Not have his best we can still be third in a major against that kind of field So I think the open should be a lot of fun and so should the travelers It's a designated event We're gonna talk about the field there break down the course and get you ready for that here in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your podcast We're here every weekday talking PGA. We're talking MLB. We're talking some NASCAR back this week as well All right here into this same feed So make sure you're subscribed wherever you get your podcast if the language here Leave us a five star writing on Apple podcast or Spotify and also check us out over on the Fandall YouTube page Hit a Homer with $5 Dinger Tuesdays on Fandall Sportsbook each Tuesday all customers will get $5 and bonus bets for every homerun hit By both teams when you place a $25 to hit a homerun wager on MLB games The best part about Dinger Tuesday is even if your bet loses Fandall will pay you $5 for every homerun hit in that game There's no better place to bet America's pastime than America's number one sportsbook head over to your Fandall account or Download the Fandall Sportsbook app to pick your homerun hitter must be 21 plus and present in select states bonus issued as Non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in seven days max bonus $25 Restrictions apply a C-fold terms at Fandall comm slash sports book Fandall is offering online sports waging in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas the Star Casino LLC gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit Fandall comm slash RG in Arizona 1 800 next step or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in Connecticut 1 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1 800 9 with it in Wyoming in Kansas 1 800 5 2 2 4700 or in Kansas case gambling help calm Louisiana is 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in Massachusetts Gambling helpline MA or or call you 100 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in Maryland MD gambling help that org in New York 1 8 7 7 8 open wire text open Y and in West Virginia Go to 1 800 gambler.net now they're going to TPC River Highlands this week Brandon and We'll talk about the course in a second a course that we have a lot of data on but this is a cross-country flight Following a major and a lot of the guys who are here played last week So given the intensity of a major given the cross-country flight here Any pause for you at betting this event given that it is kind of a tight turnaround after a stressful week So this is the kind of question that you would you kind of need to do some research into To answer with any sort of confidence. Otherwise, you say, oh, yeah, this is you know These guys are gonna be drained, you know anyone finish in top five They're gonna they're gonna phone it in the next week But we've had two recent West Coast US opens leading into the travelers in recent years So I just dug back into those in 2021 Tory Pines Harris English won the travelers after a solo third at the US Open Brooks Kepke was T4 at the US Open and T5 at the Travelers Guido Miliosi T4 at the US Open T13 at the Travelers the next week of The 34 golfers making the cut at the US Open and playing the Travelers the next week 27 of them made the cut which is almost 80% 14 of those were top 25 the following week So I think we're gonna be fine in that in that regard This is always something I want to do more research into anyways like form leading into a major which one I've done Sort of abbreviated studies on that. It's pretty overrated the form like directly leading into a major but then in 2019 just because I noticed that Your boy Ches Revy won the travelers after a T3 at the US Open That number is pretty interesting this week But yeah, 22 24 of 33 made the cut at the US Open and played the next week of the travelers Made the cut 73% so if you take that two-year sample about 76% of golfers who played the US Open and They made the cut so it's a it's a good number and I don't think that we need to be concerned but What is really interesting is that? When this has happened the person finishing third or tied for third went on to win next week and We may or may not have just talked about the guy who finished third last week Scotty Schaeffer. Yeah, so I mean You know, that's a trend I guess but yeah Yeah, the reason very superficial trend because it is pretty random But I think that the the takeaways there are interesting for two reasons a well three reasons a Didn't expect you to actually do data on this so kudos to you for not mailing in a question Why would I expect any different to this point to it's interesting because a travel aspect didn't matter too much but also three I've always kind of been hesitant with guys coming off of Situations where they're grinding hard during a major the following week because that's a lot of mental exertion I would be exhausted and so I project on to them that they would not be able to perform all the next week But they do so I think that there are two very interesting aspects They're both of which allow us to proceed here with like kind of playing things straight up So let's talk about playing things straight up here at TPC River Highlands. What are the shortest courses on the tour? So which data are you emphasizing for this week? Irons accuracy and putting basically Driving accuracy is a plus here that does mean a more random event just because more golfers can contend shorter hitters can contend just talked about Ches Revy Doing doing his thing Harris English not particularly like long off the tee. We think of him more as an accurate driver Then we do a long driver Data golf something I talked like that's a source that we use a lot They have a course fit table and it shows first of all like what stats tend to matter here They have a course table tool as well Which shows a bunch of different stats like how hard or easy it is to gain strokes or fairway with and all that kind of stuff, but What one thing that they do is they take a field and they show an expected strokes gain differential From a player's baseline based on the course fit And if you have your sort of your shorter hitters in the field this week your Ryan Moore Ches Revy's They're getting a boost of like point three five strokes per round Which over four rounds is almost one and a half strokes, which is pretty substantial just based on you know Their baseline relative to how this course should play and then you look at the flip side It's not just about the driving distance here, but some of the bigger hitters some of the bigger names Of course Roy McElroy now Wyndham Clark big name for sure losing about two and sorry point two five strokes per round So like if you just kind of compare Rory's advantage to you know Ches Revy. That's like a point six Stroke per round gap closing so you kind of do that across the field it gets a lot tighter the shorter hitters can contend The longer hitters still can play well But it's pretty noteworthy for this week as like you said this tends to play as the shortest course It just depends on like what the official yardage rolls in at but yeah, it's super short You got to hit the fairways more often than not and yeah, it's just kind of one of those weeks where we're gonna have a Like a sort of a smattering of different player archetypes at the top of the field now You know with the field being as strong as it is you still would expect that the better golfers float toward the top But we're gonna see some of the outliers in this in the the outliers of the shorter hitters who are having the rest of their game click Go to the top of the board, which is different than saying like definitely target the short hitters because you know There's there are a lot typically Strokes gain total it correlates pretty strong with driving distance And as always it's just turning knobs turning knobs a bit You're not just sorting by accuracy and stuff like that But turning knobs up a bit turning some knobs down and making adjustments based on that now One of the takeaways that you mentioned is that more guys can compete Despite that we got Scotty Schaeffler as a favorite this week He is now six to one over at Fandals sportsbook Schaeffler open at seven shortened to plus five fifty He is now back out to six to one he's obviously amazing and He does have good accuracy And he's golfing like a psycho right now. It actually did actually gain strokes putting this past week for the first time It feels like a decade But it is a short number and a lot of guys can compete so any lingering value for you on Schaeffler Brandon at six to one So I have him Around like what would be plus six twenty, okay? So at seven to one it was nice at plus five fifty. No It's just one of those realities where like Currently with Scotty Schaeffler's putter It's a Generally like a fair number more or less if Scotty Schaeffler were to bury some putts Then he should be like probably five to one And one of the things that is kind of ironic Is that I feel like when Scotty Schaeffler was playing his Sort of best and he was ripping off all of those wins, you know winning the masters Arnold Palmer Waste management He was putting really well Like the putter was hot then it cooled off a bit and then it got kind of bad and then it stayed I'll call it like a neutral because yeah, he's like losing strokes putting but over the past 50 rounds With field strength adjustments data golf has him losing point one three strokes per round on the grids Not very helpful, but it's not as bad as people want to think right and his teeter ring game is so good that like if you think that Scotty's gonna, you know putt above his baseline he's very I mean if he did that If you put it a little bit better this past week he'd he'd a one That's kind of you know, that's that's kind of how golf tournaments tend to to work is Man, if this person just put it a little bit better Data one so But yeah, I mean he's gaining 3.29 strokes per round from tea to green play over the past 50 rounds and no one is No one else is above 2.09. So That's 1.2 shots per round better with the tea to green so it's It's always scary with with how good scottie is right now I wouldn't bet him Personally At that number, but it's really not an egregious number either No, it's there for a reason. He got that down from seven for a reason. Yeah, this all makes a lot of sense With scottie sheffler being fair value plus 620 for you. That means he is sucking up a lot of win equity though Does that mean that other outrides for you this week are pretty unappealing? Are there any that stand out to you? What's your view of the outrides for this week? Yeah, not not loving it. Um, this week That's not to say I don't see a few names that both the model likes and I see a case for um One of them being calling more cala 25 to 1 feels a little He kind of went a little bit more um But extremely accurate sixth and accuracy over the past 50 rounds the second in approach Over the past 50 rounds as well If you look at his event log, he just He is striping the irons and it's another one of the situations where If he can putt better There's no reason he can't win an event like this. He just I don't know with more cala When I feel like once he is rolling he's good to go whereas like scottie's a little more Even the floor is a lot higher with scottie sheffler, but uh calling more cala Definite interest at that number tony finow as well. Even though we don't think of tony finow is very accurate. He's really not Pretty he's like he's really not errant 35 to 1 on fandal specifically. He's a good number Uh Be harder to find him at that number on other places. So that's appealing for me. I haven't met 32 to 1 Even with bumping him down for the course adjustments Uh, the putter is pretty cold, but the underlying stats are pretty neutral He's basically 50th percentile and putting from within 15 feet and over 15 feet So he's not getting lucky on the greens like I've seen him in the past And then some jm 50 to 1 I'm at 44 to 1. He's accurate off the t 16th over the past 50 rounds great combined short game top 25 there Missing a lot of cuts. So that number is coming down uh, and that's just one of those situations where The model looks at you know, the past year of data does a bunch of adjustments recency waiting So even with that, you know, the weaker form More recently It's just saying okay at this point. It's a good number on sum jm. So That's typically why I love the model because you wouldn't think of sum jm at all But look at the last year. Um, do all those adjustments. It's it's finally to the point where it's a good number Yeah, sum jm 50 to 1 right now if angel sport spoke tony finow 35 to 1 collin moracawa 25 to 1 it sounds like based on the way you were talking moracawa is your favorite of that bunch. Is that correct? Yeah, I think I'm going to take a stand with moracawa. Um, this week in particular It makes a lot of sense, uh for his game this week If again, if you just look at his These are per round numbers with field strength adjustments here is Uh strokes game approach numbers 1.58 2.14 1.22 1.2 2.2 1.1 0.95 like you have to go back to Not even in This count or not even in this season the genesis scottish open According to data golf. So july 10th 2022 is the last time he lost strokes with his iron play Yeah At a certain point Be better positioned off the tee this week than usual because it's a less distance heavy course The putter is coming around a bit Um gained in in his two in two straight events You know, he's like a 25th percentile putter from within 15 feet, which Ain't great, but it's also not completely dreadful. So I think it's an interesting week for moracawa for sure at that number Okay, again moracawa 25 to 1 where brandon is looking there. What about the nana writes any Prop bets or finishing positions you like this week? Got to go with brian harman I'll keep it a top 20 At plus 320 just because it's a tough field, but The irons you're not going to love what you see a long term from him But very accurate off the tee good short game. He's got five top tens here in 12 starts He just plays the course well and it's one of the situations where I'm willing to buy into course form because he's a pretty good golfer overall Whenever the course is right And then I got some group bets. I like group c I'm gonna, you know, we talked about the the narrative that the travel of the fatigue narrative uh ricky fowler Um at plus 240 over matt Fitzpatrick Uh windham clark and seawool kim. I have ricky at about plus 215 here. So I like the number I think that you know ricky's game overall Is trending up in such a big way I think that windham clark would have to take a step back and he's not a good He's not the best course fit by any means. He's one of the more Like expected negatives, uh, according to data golf Uh, I you know, I know you love your boy matt Fitzpatrick and windham And windham and seawood. Why would you like this is an attack on me? I like to find then this is rude I mean find a group then uh where you don't have any I will We like everyone basically No I'll I'll work on this. Give me a name. You don't like on the pg tour right now. Uh, Most of them left. Yeah So That's tough another likable, uh name here group f tom kim Plus 220 against the decimates of yama harris english minwoo lee I mean love all those guys too, right like Um, especially minwoo. He's got a ton of great finishes and majors already. It's it's pretty interesting So regret not going heavier at him at df and dfs instead of freaking mito like what a moron jim is What an idiot Um, I have kim around plus 190 for this one super accurate off t You know these other guys in this group can go low Uh, but it's a good course fit for tom kim and his game's coming back around And final one group h uh the lovable keegan bradley um plus 200 Against gary woodland austin ekroth and ludwig aberg with ekroth and aberg Two of the big up and comers, especially ludwig. Everyone loves uh ludwig can't stop talking about ludwig, but gary woodland's game He's got some really really bad putting splits six percentile from within 15 feet. Don't really love that keegan More or less dialed in um, and again my model sees value on him In that group Okay, so the non-outrides for brian harman top 20 at plus 320 got tom kim in group f plus 220 ricky fowler Plus 240 in group c keegan bradley plus 200 in group h the bet's brandon likes for this week That's all we got here for the travelers championship preview I've got to go recap the last week show which is always more fun when brandon gives out an 85 to one outright winner But brandon i appreciate the time as always Good luck to you with the travelers and we'll see if you can run it back with another outright for this week. Appreciate it Yeah, uh, i'm always trying to That is the goal and you've done a great job with it so far So appreciate it as always and we'll talk to you for the dfs side of things In just a bit that is brandon gadoola again check him out on twitter at gadoola 13 and find his work over at numberfire.com Let's go through last week's show here and recap the week-long recommendations We had from here on the show the first one of course is the u.s Open brandon gadoola breaking down that one and did hit windham clark the winner 85 to one He was also uh on windham clark to finish top 10 at 7 to 1 So whether you did the top 10 bet at 7 to 1 of the outright 85 to 1 Good payday for you. Congrats to those of you who followed brandon's advice there and again I was happy to have it myself as well. So good week for sure Even with no nascar on the schedule other outrides of brandon were John rom 11 to 1 xander schoffley 19 to 1 Tony finaut 37 and jason day at 50 to 1 for the outrides as for non-outrides brandon like tearle hatton as the top englishman at Plus 280 tommy fleawood took that honor fleawood went bananas on sunday to finish t5 hatton was 27th overall brandon had vincent norman as a top suite at 2 to 1 He tied alex norman as they both missed the cut. Uh, so dead heat rule rules apply there They actually the same score and missing the cuts not just both facing the cut But uh dead heat rules apply in there and brandon and brian harman is the top lefty at minus 120 harman Was the only lefty to make the cut uh, phil mickelson and hankley biota both missed the cut So that one cashed as well overall awesomely great analysis by brandon. That's always fantastic to have him on the show here each week because He has been on a heater with picking golf outrides so far this year My lone racing bet last week was in formula one with no nascar last week I had yuki senota at 2 to 1 to finish top 10 in montreal Whole weekend kind of rough for yuki. He didn't get the tires right and qualifying He started 16th and it was kind of a jumbled up order so that wasn't necessarily a death sentence But yuki never really made up a ton of ground never really pushed for a top 10 He finished 14th there uh, so no cash So nothing on the f1 side of things but we do get nascar back this week in nashville So that will be fun looking forward to that and again All is a lot easier to handle when you get a windham clark 85 to 1 to win The u.s. Open that is all that we have here for today on covering the spread one final Thank you to brandon cadulla for swinging by breaking down his thoughts on the travelers championship Check him out on twitter at cadulla 13 find his work over at number fire dot com If you've got any questions for me. I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast I want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you With your pga bets for the travelers championship We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down some nlb This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network