 Welcome to digital asset news and Dan teaches crypto. What I want to do today is I want to talk to you about the four year cycles and I want to put this video up on two locations. One will go to the YouTube channel. And the second one will be on my 100% free website. Dan teaches crypto so people can find a lot more easily than searching through a ton of different videos on YouTube. So today again, the four year cycles. The question I've been getting is our four year cycles. What makes them happen? It just happened by magic. Is it just by astrology? Do things just kind of come out of the sky? I will know really what the four year cycles really pertains to. It all comes down to scarcity. And what I mean by that is Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009, the creator of Bitcoin. You forgot a way to make digital scarcity. The first one to do this. And when he did, he said, Look, here's what we're going to do every four years. The amount of Bitcoin that's able to be mined is going to be cut in half. So when it first started out, we'd taken a look at 2009, you get 50 Bitcoin for every 10 minutes that the miners were mining Bitcoin, 50 Bitcoins per block. It's pretty good. Four years later, it reduced to 25. In 2016, it went from 25 to 12.5, 2020, went to 6.25. And now in 2024, as we come up to that today, it is August 21, 2022, we're going to go from 6.25 in 2020, which is right now to 2024. Go to 3.125. So what does that mean? Well, that means that unfortunately, it takes a little bit of time to get that into the public consciousness and say, Hey, this is going to become even more scarce and more finite as time goes on. So it's time to wake up and take a look at Bitcoin. So when we take a look at this, this is the four year cycles. And the first one, Bitcoin was created in 2009. So 9, 10, 11 on 2012, which in my, the way I look at it is this is the first real cycle. Yeah, 2012 was a halving. And during the halving, you went from 50 to 25. And then within a year, people started to realize, Wow, there's not that much Bitcoin being produced, and it's going to keep getting more and more scarce every four years. Maybe I should get into it. And then the price goes from $14 up to over $1,000. Unfortunately, when this happens, then you can get smart money or some big money or you want to call it. They start to look at us and go, Wow, this is overheated. This is not sustainable. We're going to short the market. We are going to sell like crazy. And it drives the price pretty much farther down because of human psychology. As the price starts to decrease, then other people say, I got to get out here. And they start to sell. And then before you know it, you have a big dip, a 314 and a reset. And the same thing happened in 2016. Another halving from 25 to 12.5. People started to realize, Wow, this is going to be more scarce. Then they start to invest into it heavily. It becomes overheated. And then of course, big money, smart money, what do you want to call it? They start to short. And of course, around this time, the CBOE came out and said, Hey, let's do a futures contracts for for Bitcoin. And they shorted it and they sold it off. And before you know it, then the retail said, Wow, everything's going crazy. I need to sell off. And before you know it went from almost 20,000 to around 3000 in about a year or so. Then you then you come up to a reset. And then of course, in 2020, we went to another halving 2021, we saw an all time high of 67,000. And then of course, during this time, it was actually, you had institutions come in like a micro strategy like different BNY Mellon banks and all these places that were really getting into into crypto, the Paul Tudor Jones, the traditional finance guys. But then unfortunately, what happened during around this time is that he had these two guys, zoo and Davies, we did a video about this, which is three arrows capital. And they were pretty much pulling off a Ponzi scheme as they were borrowing from Paul to pay Peter. And then there was different issues with Doquan and Luna. And that started to crash the whole market. And then of course, then once the market crashed a little bit, and then the big, big money smart money starts to sell off and retail panics and they sell off. And the dip in 2022 so far has been around between 17,400 to 19,300 somewhere around there. So that is what happened. And now of course, we'll see a reset in 2023. And again, the same thing happens again. 2024 will have a having just like clockwork will probably have an all time high, then we'll have a dip in a reset because it'll get overheated and then off we go. So this is just the things that I see. I can't give you financial advice, not a financial advisor. But what I do during these times, because right now, it's pretty boring, things are moving sideways, we're actually going down. I just dollar cost average. And I've did this last time, worked out pretty well. I was buying Bitcoin around 5000, Ethereum around, I don't know, five, 600 bucks. Cardano was at 7 cents, 12 cents. I did that for a couple years. And it worked out pretty well. It was hard to hit those all time highs. So again, I buy when it's boring, when it's boring, I buy the second best time I always think about is things that was when things are going up. Now you can follow a bunch of YouTubers and a bunch of TA people and you can pay for programs and you can try to figure it out. I'm not that guy. That's a different channel. And there's one thing that that two TA experts can agree on. And that's that the third one has no idea what they're doing. So you can take a look at that. Good luck. But I will say this. And that is that as these as everything starts to go down, you know, big money, smart money, they they know what time it is. But retail, I think is the one that gets caught up in this space. And they're the ones that gets hurt the most. And there's a great, there's a great quote from legendary investor Nick Murray. He said, don't mistake temporary declines for a permanent loss. You only lose when you sell. And you have to take a look at these things and go, well, will this come back? Is this a good industry? Not all of crypto will come back. That's just a that's just the truth. Take a look. Take a look. My example always is a dash of salt. Take a look at dash. Take a look at salt. Some dash came back a little bit. Salt is never coming back. And when you take a look at those things, which are the ones that potentially be the really big ones moving forward. So that's just something to keep in mind. But there are some concerns I have, especially with the market itself and where it could potentially go. So with this one, all models, they can become invalidated. This was a very popular one called Bitcoin stock to flow made by Plan B. And it took a look at the supply side of Bitcoin. As you start to see less and less supplies, we just talked about. And usually it would mean that the less of the supply, the more the price will go up. But that really didn't happen. I think one of those problems was because of this issue that happened in our market, but it became invalidated. So with this one with with all these four year cycles, could they become invalidated? Sure, it could most definitely become invalidated. So the question then is, well, what do you do for me? It's very simple. I just go from this boring to buy. The next thing I want to think about is maybe when should I potentially get out? Some people will say I'm never selling. I'm going to diamond hands until I die. Pass on to my kids. You can do that. That's just not my thing. And for me, I've taken a look and say, well, this is what I'm going to do in the next bull run for Bitcoin only. There's a video on the website, my 2024 25 bull run exit strategy. And we take a look at seven different cycle top indicators and cycle bottom indicators and just kind of go from there. And just kind of as we dollar cost average in, we dollar cost average out. Very simple. So there's that part. And then lastly, I will say is this is even though that we're potentially in this crypto winter or a pullback or whatever you want to call it. Just remember this, if we take a look at those four year cycles, the high from 2013 was about $1100. And the low roughly a couple of years ago was 172 bucks. That's an 85% decline. Same thing. If we take a look at the next cycle in 2017, it was almost 20,000. And then the low was $3200. And that was about a year later, an 84% decline. And now here we are in November 2021. Coming up on a year or so as we move forward. But so far, the low has only been around 19,000. That's only a 71% reduction. So just be aware that even though we've fallen far, we could fall even farther. The last thing I will say is this, and that is that warm buffing stays perfectly. The real fortunes in this country have been made by people who have been right about the business they invested in, and not right about the timing of the stock market or actually any of those markets. So just keep that in mind as we move forward. And that will conclude today for a little refresher of the four year cycle. So look, like today's video, give it a thumbs up, consider subscribing. We do these types of videos every day, mostly the most of the news. And that is it for today. So thanks so much for stopping by. I do appreciate it. I'll see you on the next one.