 Welcome to the weather forecast for the beginning of Wednesday, November 8th, 2023. This is Chief Meteorologist John Innsworth for Longmont Public Media. Got a new moon coming up on Monday, November 13th. And the sun is mostly quiet except for one spot that's causing some great aurora activity on the earth right now. Again, drought conditions. A tiny bit of drought relief on the western slopes from that last storm. But not much. Looking nationally, a little bit of drought relief in spots. Rain is hitting Texas and getting into the south. Looking at smoke, we have some smoke around mid-week that will be cleared out by the cold front that's moving in Tuesday night into Wednesday. I am recording this a day early because of the Wednesday storm. Taking a look at snowpack, you can see we're kind of bouncing along. We're at 61%, but of course just so little is happening so far and is expected to happen so far that this isn't mattering much. But look at the last seven days of precipitation. Nothing. I got a little bit of a showery stuff, I don't even know if that's real, but weird. Looking at severe weather, we just had a little chance of some thunderstorms near Chicago and Milwaukee and over Michigan and then down in Texas area. Nothing happened really. Okay, here comes the cold front moving in, low is beginning to deepen. It's not much of a storm and there isn't much moisture for it to act on. Looking at the snow for Wednesday and then it moves south of us where the main front activity has caused the deep south states. We have normal temperatures descending quite quickly from 56 to 51 degrees. Time temperatures are now deeply in the 20s from 28 to 23, really rapid drop on the normal highs and lows. Here's our storm for Wednesday. Pretty good agreement that some precipitation is going to fall, but you can see it's not much. I have atmospheric moisture, here comes the front coming in from the west and it's kind of dry presently around here. And this is what the upper air looks like, that's what is kicking up those clouds to the west of us. Kroff is approaching, have a ridge out east and we're going to look at different models here to see how small the storm is in all of them, but how slightly different each are. So here's the GFS that we normally look at, it's about maximum storm time around the edge of rain and snow. Then you look at the Canadian, we've got snow and rain, a little more moisture toward northeast and then looking at the North American model, looks kind of like the Canadian with snow up here, snow around us and rain further east. So let's put this in motion. You see a trough swinging through the west, that's our storm on Wednesday. It's just not super strong. We have another ripple coming in right there for the weekend and maybe it'll cool us down and make things windy, but I didn't see anything precipitation wise and the ridge comes back and warming us up in the west, going out to the 14th and 15th, a big trough coming in to the west, but it doesn't advance very quickly. You get this ridge almost as wide as the nation and things don't move forward. Here's that cutoff coming in. See what that does weekend after this weekend. The temperatures are above normal right now, even though it feels kind of cool. Normal is pretty cool right now. Then the cold front comes in, spreads down into Texas and Mexico. And you can see, it's not super cold and we get back up around normal pretty quickly. Going to the 12th, 13th, and yep, we're back into above normal temperatures. Okay, this is interesting. I don't see a storm with it, but you can see the moisture around right now. For Wednesday then it gets scoured out and pushed down deep into the south. Some of the moisture lingers into Mexico and tries to sneak up into the plains. And as we get to the 12th, 13th, look at the surge of moisture coming up. It's ahead of that big trough out west. And I kind of expected to see a lot of precipitation with that. I guess we'll definitely see clouds. But as you see, it really doesn't do much. Here's the surface dew point, so surface moisture. And we're pretty dry. Just briefly, there's some moisture around for this storm to act on. Then we're down single digit dew points, teens and twenties out on the plains. There's a 12th, Sunday going into the 13th, 14th, and moisture starts to come up again. 42 points just out on the plains. And it really moistened up. So if a storm does interact with this, we could have some more excitement. Around the 12th to 15th then we are currently expecting. That is our tiny, tiny little storm. Just a little period of upslope really behind the front. And it's off and away. And there's the 12th, Sunday, 13th, just bone dry still, 14th. And see, there really isn't anything but this big storm out in California. Lots of mountain snows. I think that's one of the first big hits this year as we're getting like that. And then near the end of the animation, the slow does start coming towards us. So we'll see with the middle of the month whether we get something. The next five days, this is half inch amounts in the highest mountains, quarter inch. Right along that 25, it's almost nothing. Looking at snow, it's like a dusting or maybe an inch. Boulder, maybe a couple inches. Estus, maybe three, four inches and like that. This is not a very big storm. In the next 10 days, you don't add much to it at all. So cool down to the 40s in the daytime, meaning probably rain. If it does precipitate at all, only giving about 75% chance for small amounts of snow precipitation. We warm back into the 50s and then get above normal again, almost up to 70 by the middle of next week with some clouds. So check out Longmont Leader for frequent weather updates and great local news. This has been Chief Meteorologist John Insworth urging you to keep looking up.