 The following is a presentation of TFNN. Trade what you see with Larry Pezzavento. Toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now, Larry Pezzavento. Okay, looking good. Billy Ray feeling good, Lewis. We're going to have a guest today, an author. Dan Schaeffer is going to be our guest at 9.30. He's written a book, a very popular book on Amazon about bubbles and manias and depressions and stuff, so we'll be talking to him. Tomorrow, we are going to have a very old friend and special guest, Kevin Murphy. Kevin was the gentleman who studied with Bill Ehrman for an ergonometry. We watched his work develop over the years and we lost him about four years ago to the big trading gods in the sky, and then on Friday, we've got the Wolfman, Wolf Trader, Shane Smollion will be our guest, so that's what we're looking for for the rest of this week. Next week, we will have Stan Harley and Bill Meridian on, hopefully, because we're a little bit behind hearing those folks, so we'll certainly want to be doing that. The first chart we looked at here, of course, was the Bund, and the next one we want to look at, of course, is the DAX. You can see here we're in a little bit of a seven or eight-day correction here in the DAX. It hasn't really done very much at all. When we look at the DAX on a little bit shorter timeframe, going down to a half hour to an hour chart, you'll be able to see that we were... there's some pretty smaller swings that are in here for intraday that look relatively interesting. Right now, the odds favor the prepared mind, I guess. I would think it would be around around 12,370 is what I would be looking at in this DAX on the 60-minute chart, and then if we take a look at the FTSE, we want to take a look at that. By the way, I was informed by my friend, John Jameson, that the DAX is a difficult index, and the reason why it is based on earnings. In other words, they put the earnings back into the index itself, so it's price-related. He'll explain that to me later when I can understand it better, but I wasn't even aware of that. I might just trade it. I haven't traded it many times, but I certainly have, especially when I'm over in the U.K. Folks, let me talk just a tiny bit about these negative interest rates. I mean, just... he'll come always having a real rough time with this stuff because people ask me questions. It just doesn't make any sense to me. I don't even know how to fathom it. It's never happened in 7,000 years. Look at this, folks. This is from Modellin Economics. John Modellin, one of the more popular guys on the Internet. The second worst debtor nation in the world is Italy. Look at this. They have negative interest rates, folks. Can you believe that? Negative interest rates on an Italian two-year bond. I'm getting 2.2 on a two-year bond for the U.S. What's wrong with this picture? What am I missing? You don't have to be a rocket scientist to try to figure this out. I mean, something is not right. You know, I don't know. I'm just a little skeptical of it. If we get these bonds up above those other highs and buy Gali, you know, I'll go... Hey, look, you're going to have a hard time getting me to believe that negative interest rates work. Just not going to happen. I don't think so. That's just my opinion, but, you know, who knows? Okay, let's move on to a couple of things that we want to look at. We had a nice move. Silver and platinum are actually moving better than gold, which is what we want to see. I believe gold is imminent to a breakout here. I thought we were going to do it yesterday. We got up to 14.17, gave up the ghost, went all the way down to 14.03, right out of 61% retracement last night. Third time, we'd hit it over the last few days, telling us it's a very, very strong support in that area. So I would be looking to the long side of the gold market. That's what I'm, you know, focusing on today. We had a monster break in the crude oil, which we were expecting. If you'll remember those of you that get the newsletter, the key thing in the newsletter this week was the fact that the crude oil market was ready to head to Miami Beach heading south. And we had confirmation of that also by looking at the heating oil contact also. And both of those were down more than 3% yesterday, having a little bit of a bounce back today, but lower prices are imminent, I believe, in the crude oil. This is a major top-up here at the 618 levels, in both the crude oil and the heating oil. So those are just a couple of them that look very, very interesting from the short side. I hope you made a couple bucks on that. If you did, if not, there'll always be something else out there. Since we were talking about the bonds, one of the things that we were talking about yesterday was the importance of this 153 level in the bonds. You'll notice that the drop that we had during late April in the 30-year bond, we dropped five handles. We've dropped the same amount this time, 157 down to 152 and change. So those are pretty much equal. The 3A2 comes in at 153. Any move below 153 would suggest that we're heading down much, much deeper correction. So the head and shoulders pattern that we talked about right back in February, that beautiful ABCD there, that has completed up there at that 156 and change level. And if you remember from the old broken record here in Tucson, Arizona, I kept harping about this open interest thing. And when we hear it again, folks, let's pay attention to it because it really does mean something. If you don't have new players coming in in these commodity markets, they're based on auction. You are a bid offer. And so if you don't have anybody on the other side of it, it makes it lopsided. And that's why you get these crazy moves. So for every buyer, there's got to be a seller. And sometimes they are different sellers. Anyway, let's move on and take a quick look at something that someone brought to our attention that we talked about the other day. And that is the divergence that we're seeing in some of the indices as far as the new highs and new lows and advanced decline. Especially look at the NASDAQ, the bottom chart down there. You notice the advanced decline line is well below the August highs. You'll notice that the NASDAQ composite is making new highs. The advanced decline line for the New York stock exchange making new highs. But the New York composite is still below the old highs. So there's some divergence in here. But the biggest divergence that I look at that really makes a lot of sense to me is the fact that you have to follow the money. You know, going back to Woodward and Bernstein, you know, follow the money. And look at the banking index, folks. This is your homework for today. I'm not even going to post a chart because then you'll be too lazy and you won't do it yourself. But go in and look at the banking index, BKX. And you'll see that it is in a profound downtrend. I mean, it is made its top of, you know, almost a year ago. It did a year ago, January. So pay attention to that. It's just telling you that the banks are not nearly as healthy as they're like to tell you with their earnings coming out today. Even though the earnings were good, some of them are selling off a little bit. But this banking index is not a bullish chart, folks. It really isn't. It's just a little bit shaky. That's what it looks like from the cheap seats here in Tucson, Arizona, with the temperature of 105. We've got the monsoon rains coming in. Folks, if we ever get knocked off the air here in the morning, it'll be because of the monsoons. The use of top-flight software applications and technical analysis expertise is essential to successful trading in today's market. You also gain access to the webinar that Steve Dahl and Tom O'Brien just hosted, the best way to use the Taz Profile Scanner to profit. This webinar archive is available for all subscribers immediately upon signing up. All new subscriptions also come with a 30-day money-back guarantee, so you have nothing to risk. Start your subscription by visiting the front page of TFNN.com today, and you'll find the Taz Profile Scanner under the Services tab. Sign up today. If you're in the CD market and looking for a secure investment, the Tiger First mortgage program may work for you. The security for these first mortgages are building lots in the tax opportunity zone in St. Petersburg, Florida. The Tax Act of 2018 set up tax-free zones across the country where you can build and hold for 10 years and pay no tax on the profits, which makes these lots valuable. The investment is anywhere from $30,000 to $75,000. The interest paid is 7% yearly paid on a monthly basis. According to Bankrate.com, the best rate for a four-year CD in the country as of February 20th is 3.1%. A $50,000 investment at a normal four-year CD rate of 3.1% would give you income of $1,550 per year, or $6,200 over the four-year period. That same $50,000 investment in the Tiger First mortgage program would give you $3,500 per year, or $14,000 over the four years. What should you prefer? $6,200 or $14,000 of interest on your investment. If you'd like more information about the Tiger First mortgage program, you can call me at 877-518-9190. That's 877-518-9190. Many of our new listeners have heard about The Tiger's Den. The Tiger's Den is a lively community where professional traders and investors can meet, exchange ideas and information in a comfortable, moderated atmosphere. Hear all of the TFNN shows, plus see all of the charts as they happen live and have access to archives of all of those charts. You can test drive The Tiger's Den absolutely free for 30 days and greatly enrich your knowledge of these markets and how to make your money work for you. Details on The Tiger's Den are on the front page of TFNN.com. We even have new pricing in 6 months and yearly options. Check out the new TFNN.com now and experience all the upgrades. TFNN.com educating investors. This is the new TFNNN.com with Libra, which I guess is the Facebook version of cryptocurrencies. Uh-oh, maybe I didn't put the chart in. I don't think I did. Let's double check. Let me get this up here. See if we can get this here. There we go. There we go. It looks real interesting here because you'll notice that we had I put in those dotted lines showing the little bounce. The valley that we had up to that 11,000 area over a period of about 10 days equal to the one that we had with the other dotted line entered on point C. And now look where we're looking at. We've got ABCD coming down here to 8,900. We're trading at 9,890. I think we're at 98 or something like that. We're down 12, 13 percent. This is really setting up for a really nice buy-down and we've got a this is about a perfect pattern as you can see in cryptocurrencies. Don't trade them. Don't intend to. But it's a certainly nice pattern which tells me that the the public is certainly involved. Now what we need is more regulation from the government. That's what we really need. That's what we really need. That's always something that we could always use. But the government has the ability to take it all away. So we should remember that in the future because that looks like the direction we're going in some of these things. Here's a pattern that we talked about last week. Someone asked me to review it and I'm going to here. This is the one on the diamonds for the ETF for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. That is a 1,2,3,4,5 1,300 and change. That is a completed pattern. Does it fail? Of course it fails. But sometimes they work and so we're waiting to see if this one is going to work. We don't know that as of yet. But get someone's asked a question about the gold. Gold is looking very bullish folks. I was trying to buy some today at 1402. I got a little too creative and missed it as usual. But I do believe that gold has a really good chance in here and that's primarily because of this pattern that we're looking at on this 4-hour chart. Wow, we're at 1410 already. This is good. Hold on. It's not good for me but let's get this up here. There we go. Move it over here. There we are. Hold on just a second. There we go. You can see we got down to 1402. We took out those low 1403. The number I was trying to buy was 1402. Anyway, now we're trading at 1410. If we can pop up above 1430 that means we're going to take out 1440 without any trouble. And folks, we have been here for a month. That's a month of high level consolidation. Not even making a 382 retracement. Increasing open interest. Silver starting to move higher. Platinum starting to move higher. Green lights are coming on in these metals. So we got to figure out a way to get long. And that's what my job is here. The trouble is every time I put in an order I miss it by a buck or two. But we'll get it eventually. So we'll see what happens here. But it's looking very bullish in the gold. It really is. We'll see. We'll watch it for sure. We will have Bill Meridian on next week. Of course he has his gold cycle that's been working pretty well. He'll give us an update on that. So we'll have him on next week to see what we have moving on. The question that someone's asking is about the crude oil. Is this a major correction in crude oil? Of course it is folks. We've gone from 6090 all the way down to 57 and change. It stopped crude oil just for your own thinking. Look at the crude oil low from last week. It stopped exactly to the tick at the 78% level. Not only that but it did it twice. Because it had a big rally and it came right back and touched that low again. And so that's a really important bottom yesterday at 57 in that crude oil. Very, very important. It's something that I think we really ought to take a look at. Someone's asking is Ruby? I don't know. I think she's buying the sugar because it got down to that $12 a pound level. Still trading at that level. So she was looking to buy it there. Well, when she comes back they all come back. Nobody leaves the den. This is a great place to hang out folks. There's some really smart people here at TFNN at this den here. Boy, you've got some really smart guys that post some end gals. Of course it's really a nice one. This is... Those of you that like the trend and stuff take a look at it. Uh oh. Someone says we're not on the... Can anybody hear? Uh, wow. What's wrong? Hmm, strange. What? Oh, no one can hear me? Hello, broadsword to Danny Boy. Broadsword to Danny Boy. The chicken is in the pot. The eagle is landed. Hello. Okay, good. Back, back. Take a look at this natural gas folks down at this 230 level. It's uh... I don't know what you mean by that Al. Sorry about that folks. Um, let's uh... 230 in the natural gas is some very, very strong support down there. You're going to have to risk about 5 bucks which is $500. But that's got a real potential. You have a small uptrend forming now because you have higher bottoms and higher tops over the last couple of weeks. So there is that trend could be changing. You've got multiple ratios coming together at the same time in here at 230, 618, 786, Mother God and Country. That's what you're looking for. So um, all we're waiting now is for the 200 day moving average to cross the 400 day moving average and we'll be ready to go. So pay close attention to it. By the way folks, my grandson called me yesterday morning and he wanted to take his little squeeze, his main squeeze down to see the Dodgers play over the weekend. They have a coming series and he wanted to know if I could get tickets and I said well I'll give it a shot and so I gave it a shot and as the old baseball gods were on my side and we got him a couple of really nice tickets for him to see the game plus we got him a really cool place to stay and uh, it'll be a lot of fun for him. He remembers the stories that his mother tells him of all the times we used to travel with the Dodgers. We didn't go with the team of course, but we would go to the cities where they were and stayed at the same hotels but we had a lot of fun back in those days. Stay tuned folks, we're going to have Dan Schaefer on in just a few minutes. 877-927-6648 847 and he's already delivering content to his subscribers on a daily basis when the markets opened and even on weekends. Each Monday you'll receive Larry's written report that provides detailed commentary and a summary on the charts and videos that Larry sends out and throughout the week when warranted Larry will send out via charts or videos or both the key markets that he is watching during the day. This will be up to the date active trading information that will help you in your daily trading. In Larry's first week alone he sent out 25 charts, 6 videos and a full report to his subscribers in just one week. If you're a technical trader that uses patterns and retracements to trade then Larry's service Fibonacci 24-7 is something that you must try. Right now new subscribers can get a full 30-day money back guarantee. With nothing to risk, sign up now to Larry Pesevento's Fibonacci 24-7 by visiting the front page of TFNN.com under trading newsletters. The path of least resistance is David White's daily trading newsletter and if you're looking for active trading ideas then now is a perfect time for a 30-day free trial to this powerful daily trading advisory service. David uses his years of trading experience to offer his subscribers his trading ideas each morning in his path of least resistance newsletter. Using a combination of equity trades along with options, David keeps his subscribers up to date with all pertinent market information with intraday afternoon updates when warranted. Don't miss out on this great chance to get a 30-day free trial to David's daily newsletter, the path of least resistance with no obligation to pay anything. David has been delivering solid recommendations for his subscribers recently and if you'd like to see the type of newsletter he delivers every morning then visit the front page of TFNN and you'll find the path of least resistance under trading newsletters. For all the details and to start your 30-day free trial today please log on to tfnn.com now. TFNN is excited about our new software charting program The Art of Timing the Trade Chart. In collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best-selling book The Art of Timing the Trade, Your Ultimate Trading Mastery System, David White has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology. Using this first-of-its-kind program, The Art of Timing the Trade Charts allows you to create new setups, including guardleys, ABCs, butterflies, and much more. The Art of Timing the Trade Charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days, weeks, or even months searching to find. And right now we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month. We are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day free copy of the Art of Timing the Trade Chart today by visiting tfnn.com This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com Okay we're back folks and we have Dan Schaefer on the line. Dan are you there? Yes I am. How are you? Well I'm very good and he told me yesterday folks that he had a program here so that's a good thing Dan thank you very much. On a regular basis. Hey listen I have a question for you before you wrote a book on economics of hard times and stuff and storms. What is your, do you have an explanation or a feeling on negative interest rates? That's the first question that one of our listeners is asking you today. Do you have any feeling on that at all? Yes I do and I'll talk about that in a few moments. Is that okay? Yeah you go ahead tell us what your I wanted to introduce myself to your audience because this is the first time I'm on your show and I don't know your audience so I just want to give them some credentials of who I am before I start going through some of the stuff I do. So I used to be a floor trader on the New York futures exchange in 1982 when I graduated college and then I was a trader at Bear Stearns I also was the manager of Offshore Hedge Fund platform for a major bank and we had also on the Irish Stock Exchange platform. I also had my own hedge funds. I'm currently an independent trader I'm an author of the book Profiting in Economic Storms which was published by John Wiley and Sons in 2010 and that talks about depression, deflation, hyperinflation and market bubbles. I used to publish the Schaefer Market report and I didn't do that anymore. I stopped that a couple of years ago. I consult with other traders and prop desks. I'm a guest commentator on a lot of national network television and radio shows. I'm a speaker for private and public events and I'm also a registered investment advisor. I have a very small money management business now and this is something that you talk about every day Larry and this is what I do in my speeches is that we want to get rid of the large and large losses that come back and then when they get profits they fear those and they take them too early. So it's a psychological game. You're fully informed. I have your books. I'm fully aware and that gentleman that wrote that book that you talk about a lot I forgot his name. I had been in contact with him over the many years. Mark Douglas probably. Yes, Mark Douglas. Thank you. I'm 58 years old so I've kind of been around a long time and I met him many many years ago. So when I did have my newsletter I was in timer digest which I'm sure you're familiar with and this was the issue that they did a profile on me at the time and I ranked on bonds. Now I'm a big bond guy. This was my ranking in 2016 and that was my last year of being tabulated. I was number three but the three and five years I was number one as far as the market movements and in 2015 I was the bond timer of the year and let's say this is me on TV if anybody see me before this is the cover of my book and this is me with Neil Kovuto. I'm on Neil Kovuto show a lot on Fox Business between 12 and 2. This is me with Charles Payne. Charles and I are good friends. I've been on his shows for 10 years. This is me on Wall Street week when Anthony Scaramucci took the rights to that and brought it back and I was on with him one day and then back in early 2000s I had one of the best day trading S&P electronic programs. It was fully developed computerized through Trade Station and Linwall Dock I was exclusive with them and we traded about 20 million dollars or so of that and this was the flyer that they put in their book. So that's just kind of a little bit of an introduction of who I am. Now, if I can get this to work, see if I can switch around here and get that to switch what I wanted to do. Ah, there we go. Let's see. Okay, can you see that this chart? I think they they're posting it through Skype so we should be just fine. Yes. If you have any technical difficulties please let me know because that's my specialty. I am really good at this stuff. I can handle anything you can throw my way. So let me know if you run into a problem. Okay, go ahead continue. Okay Larry, so this is the bond I wanted to talk about some of the things that you talk about and this is the bond chart. This is the 30 year Treasury bond futures contract and I'm very bullish on this contract that I've been bullish for a long time and I know that textbook wise it talks about that when open interest is low and you see my pointer down here that there's not a lot of interest but also when open interest goes low in certain environments it means that they're not hedging so if they're not hedging you have less open interest which gives an opportunity for prices to rise even further so at the moment I know that you're bearish on the bonds I'm bullish on the bonds and if I take that to a weekly chart I look at this pattern and I look that we could possibly test this level. I know it sounds crazy but the way the economics are panning out from my research of at least the last 200 and plus years of the United States cycles and then global cycles going back 2,000 years there is a reason why the interest rates are going negative and I think it's being generated by central bank intervention and I think that they're very worried about something big that's coming so I look at that point of view and I say okay I'm going to kind of stay bullish in that trend. This is the 10-year treasury on a weekly chart and you can clearly see that the open interest has gone down a little bit but that the commercials, the smart money is still net long and I follow the commercials this I learned from one of your friends Larry Williams who I interacted with for the last 30 years and understood some of what he does and so that's my position on the interest rates what I look at the spreads 10-year versus the 2-year spread and I see that we're at levels that are quite low which if you look back in 2000 and you look back in 2006 these were precursors of a major decline in equity markets and assets and this prolonged decline here is telling me that we're on the cusp of what I think that's just my opinion I think we're on the cusp of a potential depression and I say that lightly because everybody's excited about the GDP at 1.2 or 1.4 or 1.8 those are horrible numbers and if we can't get the GDP up with interest rates as low as they are today then we've got something bigger coming on the horizon and I think that's what the Federal Reserve is worried about this is the spread between the 30 year and the 10-year treasury yield and you clearly see that it's coming back to test this line and then I project that spread could narrow again and then the 2-year are also acting the same way so that gives me some concern as to the future of interest rates and then I also do a TLT spread to the S&P which looks like that might be ready to take off which means TLT will get stronger than the S&P so that's my take on the bond model for the moment I could be wrong but that's how I look at that Larry can I switch over to gold we have time for that right now we're going to have a commercial coming up here but this is quite interesting you've already had more interest than I've had in a week in the room so this is good what I'd like to do is start with the gold here and then when you hear the music if you don't hear it I'll let you know they have to pay the bills and then you'll have you on for another 10-minute segment this is quite interesting for everyone so that sounds really good we're going to have you on again I've already decided that so let me tell you about gold because I know you're bullish on gold and everybody's bullish on gold here comes the commercial buddy stay with us and we'll be right back and Shae will be with us right away if you're in the CD market and looking for a secure investment the Tiger First mortgage program may work for you the security for these first mortgages are building lots in the tax opportunity zone in St. Petersburg, Florida the tax act of 2018 set up tax free zones across the country where you can build and hold for 10 years or tax on the profits which makes these lots valuable the investment is anywhere from 30,000 to 75,000 the interest paid is 7% yearly paid on a monthly basis according to bankrate.com the best rate for a 4-year CD in the country as of February 20th is 3.1% a $50,000 investment at a normal 4-year CD rate of 3.1% would give you income of $1,550 per year or $6,200 over the 4-year period that same $50,000 investment in the Tiger First mortgage program would give you $6,200 per year or $14,000 over the 4-years which would you prefer $6,200 or $14,000 of interest on your investment if you would like more information about the Tiger First mortgage program you can call me at 877-518-9190 that's 877-518-9190 it's amazing to think that Tom O'Brien started his weekly gold report 17 years ago with the first issue published April 7th, 2002 when gold was trading at under $300 per ounce gold peaked at more than $1,900 in 2011 and after spending many years consolidating at lower prices, gold may be poised for its next big run Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU HUI, GDX, The Dollar, Bonds, South African Rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations as of April 1st of this year the gold report currently has 8 active positions with an average unrealized profit of almost 8% for each open trade new subscribers get a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk for all the details and to start your gold report subscription today visit the front page of TFNN.com don't let gold's next big run pass you by sign up today will the S&P 500 continue to climb for bold trades on US large cap stocks in either direction trade SPXL SPUU or SPXS directions daily S&P 500, bull and bear leveraged ETFs direction leveraged ETFs an investor should carefully consider a fund's investment objective, risks, charges and expenses before investing a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares and summary prospectus call 866-476-7523 or visit directioninvestments.com a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor for side fund services LLC the bull bear binary option hour next on TFNN okay folks we're back we're talking with Dan Schaefer about gold do you want to continue Dan? yes yes so this is my weekly gold chart and I look at the commercials and I do look at the open interest like you do and I interpret this as a very bearish signal now it doesn't mean that gold couldn't go higher you and I both know we could be both wrong and that always happens but when I look at the technicals here and I see where the commercials are going and I look at the historically what the commercials do to myself why is gold rallying if I think we're going to go into a depression and or a serious recession so historically gold has taken this run up this is on a monthly chart it's come down, it's traded around and it's trying to peak out here but I think the next leg down is on gold is to test this line the 200 month moving average and I believe technically that based on the measurements that I get with the commitment of traders that can even overshoot and possibly hit 800 after that I would be a buyer for these levels above 2000 but I don't think that it's been cleaned out yet and that's my technical analysis based on the looking at the charts and looking how the commercials are positioned but then also looking at economic conditions that's the concern that I have for gold I wanted to also talk about which I don't have a chart for cryptocurrencies I am not a believer in cryptocurrencies I think that this is a farce I think it's dangerous I think that Facebook coming out with a currency called Libra is a joke against the United States and it's actually dangerous to the to the foundation of our country of somebody trying to compete with the United States currency and it goes back to my concept with the Euro and the Euro to me was also a very poor decision in Europe because what they were trying to do was compete against the United States by combining 17 countries to have one currency creating like a United States or a United Union in Europe having a currency compete with the United States for trade and that's backfired and the reason that I believe that's backfired is because every country needs its own currency to balance trades that's exports and imports and that's what I believe is causing major financial problems in Europe is having one currency so my belief is there should be one currency for every country these companies that are coming out with their own currency are just underscoring the fabric of the United States and I just wanted to give you my two cents on that Larry I don't know how you feel about it but to me that was an important thing that's four levels over my pay grade cowboy but it certainly is interesting I can understand that with that money and anything let alone a whole bunch of countries I've always felt that we've seen the Euro go from 85 to 165 back to 112 so it can go anywhere but it certainly looks very long term that's for sure right and that also ties in with the price of gold because gold is priced mostly in US dollars and so is crude oil so if the Euro which my target on the Euro is below 90 cents I'm targeting somewhere around this level coming all the way down here that that's where the Euro is going to end up and then I believe they're going to get rid of it I think every country is going to go back to their old Deutsche Mark the Lyra all this stuff is going to come back again and I think they're going to finally realize that that experiment was just not worth it and so tying in if the Euro does come down because that's mostly part of the dollar index as we know and crude oil which I believe with the slowdown coming that let me take some of this stuff off of here with the slowdown coming that I think that crude oil could potentially drop down to a lot lower in the levels hang on let me just delete that and delete this I'm sorry I didn't realize I had that set up so here's here's my weekly crude oil chart and this crude oil based on what everybody's saying how great everything is should normally should should be up here by now and it never made it so the trend that I'm seeing in crude oil and where the commercials are positioning and where the open interest is getting to see that I believe that the premium in crude oil right now is only because of political unrest which I don't think is going to become an issue and at that point as manufacturing and the use and the need for less crude oil will cause this to target my target is back to $25 which was that original low down here in 2016 and the reason I say that is because there's a lot of conversion going on to natural gas and I'm very bullish natural gas I know you talked about it you've been talking about on your show I caught this ride up here this was a beautiful move I was loading the boat all through here sold it out up here and now I've been slowly buying it back since this level so I'm a little underwater on that now but it doesn't bother me because look where the commercials are you see that Larry a long, prolonged trend down for a while but this way this is trading and the way the open interest is showing me that the commercials are loading up for a big run higher so that's where I think the future is is in natural gas and liquid-fired natural gas and crude oil is probably going to be sitting in the dust that's my opinion my next talk my next topic is about where's the money going to go well here we are in a cycle of a stock market booming for no reason except that central banks are pumping money into the system to get the stocks up we clearly know that but I believe that the end of this kind of cycle that we're in is where commodities the raw materials start to take off and I'm not talking gold and silver and oil I'm talking more like sugar okay sugar down at these levels the commercials are just basically sitting there they're not doing anything they're not even hedging so I'm bullish on sugar I'm very bullish on coffee as you've talked about coffee to me even though the commercials have gone slightly negative the open interest is very low and the cost of growing coffee is right around these levels so that can't stay down there for very long I'm also bullish on cotton I think cotton is going to be a big winner for the next year or two we see here the commercials are building a long position but open interest is low we see here they were hedging up here hedging net short that was a top I don't see that I see more of this kind of a pattern and this kind of a pattern or this kind of a pattern up here where the commercials are net long with very low open interest and that's the kind of trends that I think we'll see so I kind of told you everything that I wanted to get out there at the moment is there anything you want me to talk more about no this is really good what I'll plan to do is I'll call you later on next week and we'll plan on having you on and maybe we'll talk more about natural gas and a few of the other things that you're talking about I certainly like your ideas of what you think might be happening because what little I do read doesn't make any sense to me and that's why I'm a technician I really stay away from the news and all the other stuff and just look at the bar charts and that's kept me out of the dark house you know Larry I want to interject I look at time and price and I work now very closely with your friend Norm Winsky because I'm actually adding I was part of the Delta society with Wells Wilder with the moon cycles and I've been doing that for years but then when I met with Norm and learned about what the Astra trading about and I bought your books I said okay there's more to my analysis now that I can tie that in and it's working very interestingly well for showing that but the point is that there's a lot of opportunity here in things that are going to move and I'm a technician like you are I don't read the newspapers I have the TV on with no sound I only see what the price action is telling me that's how I was trained and also my background is I'm a CPA I have a master's in accounting I also count cards at Blackjack so I look for those kind of cycles and I'm a numbers guy and that's what the game is and that's how I play the game great listen we're going to have you on again Dan Schaefer so I'll be in touch with you and we'll plan on maybe in a couple of weeks maybe towards the end of the month here we'll have you on again and we'll plan something folks will be interested in they already have an interest so we'll follow through thanks a lot Dan okay thank you we'll be right back folks 877-976648 at everything you do in life it's the most common trade that we Tigers and Tigers share if you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done which is how to time the markets I'm Steve Rhodes author of Mastery Probability and for the last 12 months Timer Digest has been tracking my newsletter signals which have earned me the ranking as their number one market timer in the nation for the S&P 500 for the last 12, 6 and 3 months Timer Digest also ranks me as the number one market timer for bold as well the fact is markets can be timed and I'll teach you the exact set of tools that I use that has transformed me into one of the best at what I do sign up for Mastery Probability today by clicking on the newsletter tab on the homepage of TFNN.com and get immediate access to workshops where I take you step by step how to use an extraordinary set of tools as well as provide great market calls too sign up today if you haven't checked out the newsletters page of TFNN.com what are you waiting for all of the TFNN newsletters are informative up to date affordable and must have for every trader looking to gain a competitive informational edge in today's markets TFNN newsletters cover every aspect of the markets to offer you the very latest in market news plus new subscribers get to test drive our newsletters risk free for 30 days from all aspects of the markets including stocks, bonds metals, commodities and tech there's a newsletter to fit your needs exclusively from TFNN stay informed each day you trade and get the competitive edge that will help you stay ahead of the game visit our newsletters page by going to TFNN.com and click the newsletters button near the top of the page TFNN.com educating investors since 1984 Bazel Chapman has been using the Chapman Wave methodology to advise traders of his expert market opinion while originally hand drawing charts from the late 1970s into the 1980s Bazel noticed that prices under most circumstances virtually always had a certain number of legs to the upside before declining sharply later Bazel found that computer software which included the standard market technical indicators enhanced the degree of accuracy and calling price as well as market trend calls thus was born the Chapman Wave sequence using the Chapman Wave methodology along with other indicators Bazel Chapman advises his subscribers of his expert market opinion each market day with his opening call newsletter right now you can get a 2 week free trial to the opening call Bazel's daily trading newsletter by visiting the front page of TFNN.com cancel at any time during that trial and pay absolutely nothing get your 2 week free trial to Bazel's newsletter today by visiting TFNN.com this segment is brought to you by Think or Swim for more information just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com ok we're back folks I've posted the chart of silver and you can see silver has taken the lead here the last few days thanks to Mr. Z and the dude Ed in the room they've been on top of this so certainly looks like it's breaking out to the upside gold will probably be falling with trading around 14-14 in the gold and that's going to be taking out those highs of yesterday pretty soon and we could easily have a move above the 14-25 level if it really gets moving that's the whole key here we'll see if it's going to continue that regarding the hogs folks the hogs still look good we're going to have Rich Anderson on next week of course to give us a little review of what's going on we've sold off a little bit from last week's high but only 20 cents or so in corn 20 cents or so in beans 20 cents or so in wheat so these are just normal corrections we're over this lunar eclipse in full moon that might have been the bottom coming in here yesterday only time will tell but they're a little bit stronger this morning so we'll have to do follow those as we go through here pay attention to the US dollar folks it's trying to hang on here to break out to the upside we need that euro to get below 111.50 then I think that dollar index will really start moving to the upside and whether that will have any influence on the gold or not I really don't know I'm just looking at one charter another that's basically what I'm trying to do here the British pound folks we broke below that 124.40 level we're trading 124.20 a lot of resistance now back at those old lows at 124.50 I would be looking to go short that British pound up at that 124.50 because the longer term weekly charts are telling you that there's a possibility of a 118 to 116 in that British pound and given what's going on political environment over there much like ours anything could happen so you don't want to try to be finding a bottom down in here we had a nice run on it you know was able to make a little money and then it gave up the ghost so I think you have to just stand aside on that British pound or try to get short because if it gets it back above 125.20 again I'll be totally wrong live every day in an attitude of gratitude and may God bless