 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Hazel Chapman. Call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648. December the second, second trading day of the month and we're gonna be able to get a better picture of what the monthly charts are starting to say in those candles. But meantime I just wanted to show you something here as we start off. The Dow is up 431. Yesterday it plunged through the left side low of, that was about the October 13th or so, low of 35,115. It went, much low it went to 34,004. The next left side low is 13,000, sorry 30,000, 34,000, no 33,785 and that's the low from I think it was like the 1st of October. But in the meantime what we are looking at here is you can see on this right side chart this is the Dow I show subscribers to my opening call every day. Here this is the Dow G candle on the 36,565 on the 8th of November. That's actually where we started a short position right there 40 points from the all-time high held it for just a little bit got stopped out unfortunately the stop was just a tad too tight and that would have been an amazing feat if we got it within 40 points and was still holding it but we're not. But it did I was thinking of buying the diamonds today but there are a couple of things that say to me we're not just ready yet because we have to see this roller is it is the roller we're going to occur we're gonna start to see the semiconductor index and QQQ's take their turn they've been the major leaders however look on the in the so on the left is a chart that just has few moving averages and the chapwave notation all the patterns that I'm always looking at the middle chart is the same chart except I've got Chapman wave automatic notations of resistance and support and I've included the MACD the moving average convergence divergence and the slow stochastic it's way down at 8% in the single digits of this particular word really getting to the remember the rule if you read any book on technical analysis what they say is over 80% is over bought now when it says over bought isn't that an implication that means it has to become under bought I say ridiculous you wanted to be holding over 80% when you're in a bull position you wanted to go to 90 95% and holding flat that's fantastic of the stochastic can do that on the downside the longer it holds under 20% certainly the longer it holds under the teens in the single digits means that you are not oversold you are in cell mode territory and you have to wait for a trigger to go over 20% for something else to happen so it's at 8% that's a very very weak on balance volume very very weak all of it is pointing to the fact that it is the technical say that it's oversold and here the implication is that the chart formation is saying this should be another attempt at a rally but if you look at the 120 minute chart look at all those red automated Chapman wave support levels 34,002 what was the low yesterday 34,004 33,973 that gets taken out then 33,077 these are the automated ones and someone asked me would you take a moment and do some of show some of your automated levels I'm showing this today maybe tomorrow if I have a chance I'll do that in the other in the for many of the other charts we'll go to this one here which has all of these automated levels this is a 10-minute chart this OH this is the data behind it in the middle is the weekly on the right is the monthly right here is a 120 minute chart just let me show you something really quickly if I could just move this away dollar INDU and then you can see in all these different time frames so it went right through the 34,003 or 4 level on this particular chart with a cluster in the weekly between it's now in a trading band 35,000 898 with resistance and 34,444 was a support now you got 33,052 on the weekly chart and the monthly chart had 36,144 as major resistance and wow that was major resistance and the 120 minute chart has all these levels but I don't want to take time now there's just so much to do so let's just get on and I want to show you some other things so SBX so the S&P has come down sharply the magdies negative the on balance volume is pulled back the stochastic is at 13% the nine period moving out to three sessions has gone underneath the 14 so it's turned pink from green that's it that's gives you a confirmation of a cell mode that's the data but look at the weekly chart nothing the magdies weak the stochastic is still good at 84% on balance volume still good although it made an M shape double top but the nine-period moving average was supported 45,79 and the 14-period moving average was supported 45,49 exactly where we are right now is suggesting that if the green was going to turn down below the 14 you would have to see 44,15,4400 on the S&P and that would take time and that's the reason why I'm saying this is part of a bigger consolidation in the dating but we won't know the weeklies until Friday's close and certainly the monthly has all of December to try to take out 47 43.83 the all-time high I think it's going to be a little difficult to do but I wouldn't be surprised if towards the end of December we start to see a rally and then we don't make a new high but we do in January something like that I'm thinking that's my scenario at this particular point of course you could do anything at once it doesn't have to listen to me I WM I WM is a Russell 2000 look at another move to the upside lousy move so far a strong it looks strong three up to 49 at 2 1673 but after that smash to the down yesterday this time it was leading and then it was leading to the downside and to the close it closed right on the low let me just put this in here I haven't I haven't read there is 2 13 point 15 wow 2 13 point 15 can you believe that's gone from it's gone from the high of 244 to 213 that's 30 something points that's a that's a 40 15% correction already in the IWM so each one of these one by one doing the corrective action and now what we're looking at is did I do the Q 9 in the Q Q Q try to rally it's kind of fading right now it's a 387 71 up 63 cents the dreaded H pattern as we were on the air yesterday was doing Tom a Brian show and 3 to 4 it went from somewhere around the 9-speed moving average of 393 20s whoop we're all the way down below the left side low and made an even lower low and this is the lowest lowest head in about a 3 about 3 3 weeks yeah so we're watching this very closely I suspect that we start oh and there's an s that means the 9-speed moving average as we speak this is a daily chart you cannot think that this is the close this is just so far today has turned down and formed an s meaning that tomorrow it'll be a pink if it continues like this there'll be a pink 9th year moving average underneath for 14 now we've got all the technicals suggesting that the Qs are going to have a digestive phase started already and I should mention subscribers are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades your portfolio Tom O'Brien is here to help Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years a frequent contributor the TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you Tom's Daily Market Newsletter market insights is published every morning when the markets open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed these newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis in our gear to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio get Tom O'Brien's newsletter market insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money back guarantee at TFNN dot com TFNN educating investors what's separating you from the most successful men and women on Wall Street that's right information having all the information gives us the perspective we need to place the right trades at the right time the TAS profile scanner is the premier market profile based scanner powered by its acclaimed task proprietary algorithms this feature rich scanner instantly filters over 2,500 plus global financial markets such as stocks 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while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at TFNN dot com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be TFNN educating investors public through back dolls up 395 s to be is up 30 we're looking at the semiconductor index now down $65 at two point 20 this is going to be very important because there's that H pattern and they are let me just do this right here for those of you who didn't hear my show in my detailed explanation of this particular pattern over the last week or two let me just do this one more time and I'll make it as brief as possible in the formations that I look at there are basically you know I have a smuggler's board of under the umbrella of the Chapman wave notations I look at tons and tons of things I'll even talk about round numbers in a moment but I look at three chart formations that are absolutely key to everything you look at it doesn't matter whether you use Fibonacci whether you use volume it doesn't matter what you look at every chart is going to have straight lines up or down cup formations it could be a V shape formation where you go from one point down back to that point or an art formation or an inverted V where you go from one point up and then come back and retest that low you can mix one and two or one and three in this case it's one and three it's red because this arch formation if it fails that arch the H pattern fails at a peak A or a B and starts to head down and goes more than about I'd say 60% lower there's a good chance you're going to test that left side low you take that low out you can go a lot lower on the upside if you break that reverse Y pattern break that left side high you can go a lot higher what are the patterns straight line up or down cup or arch just as simple as that and then you can get into all the other details but most importantly what we're looking at here is you remember I was on air yesterday and I said the cues are holding okay but I think it's going to be a peak A going to the downside but there's a lot that has to happen and certainly my day's intraday show my 10 o'clock show this time yesterday I we had a fabulous move to the upside didn't take out the high of the day before but it was holding very well and I said let's watch it if it goes under the nine-speed moving average that's going to be poor if it fails and takes out the left side low watch out that's the dreaded H pattern and it can keep going down and what happened intraday as we were on air the last 20 minutes whoosh to the downside and today it tried to rally and now it's taking out that left side low and we're trading a 385 round number low we'll see if the 85 round number low is going to hold in the S in the QQQ let's go back to the SMH the SMH we're looking at the same thing that's happening but it has not taken out the 29789 low of five sessions ago the all-time high of 318.82 that was the day we actually started trying to short the SMH's look what happened and the vehicle we have is so volatile that even though it never made a new high the vehicle that we used did make a new low in fact we didn't even lower so what we're looking at is is there is this going to be a gray A where it cannot get above the previous peak high of 318.82 but instead goes below the left side low of the day is young and the day is young of 297.89 on the 26th of November and if it closes below that finally we can say that the SMH is the semiconductors which always need us up or down or up or down or down or up or whatever it is because that that's the engine of the remember it used to be it used to be oil all the way through the 1900s oil was the the energy came from oil now we've seen a change since about 1980 1990 into 2000 the semiconductors has become the energy not that it doesn't use the original energy and I can understand why there's a big problem coming up in the next couple of years but the energy of the economy isn't just rails anymore and airlines it is the semiconductors they drive just about everything if you look at the number of semiconductor chips that were used even let's just go five years ago in automobiles and today it's just you can't even compare because just about everything has some kind of a chip except for the body so this is really important so the semiconductors became so important that even now look at the look at the reluctance they've had to break lower so if at any point in the next two weeks there's a crack I should say crack if there is a close below 291 55 the low of the 10th of November that will suggest that something else is happening for the first time in quite a while in the semiconductor area look at this applied materials all-time high 159.00 round number high on the 16th of November it's made a single leg eight to the upside which is fading and it's pulling back here still a fabulous looking chart but the rectangle formation like the IWM the Russell 2000 said the longer you remain in a sideways move at highs the break to the upside invariably wants to come back and test the middle of the rectangle so that says unless I'm wrong applied materials AMAT should at 146 should pull back about 10 points before it makes some kind of an attempt at a low that starts to new to the upside that's what I'm thinking now let's go to AMD advanced micro devices made an all-time high three sessions ago I forgot to put the number in at 164.46 that was on the 30th 164.46 let me just type that in because it's going to be important 164.46 and now I'll be looking for some kind of round number nothing nothing nothing nothing nothing and even today nothing nothing all right fine Nvidia one of the absolute talk about smart chips these are the chips that are really smart 317.87 on NVDA as we speak up 358 made an all-time high on the 22nd of November at 346.47 319 round number low that day and look at this it had a rally it went to 334s and now straightening at 317.97 it's a green candle but it's starting to test that left side low which is really important which is at 309.28 a close below that says you've got yourself the dreaded H pattern hasn't done it yet we'll see what happens look at let me have a let's see it was another one I was looking oh MU but look at this this is unbelievable MU micron had a round number high on the 21st or 2nd let me just see on the where was it now it had it had an 80 said had a 2 bar reversal 80 87.67 and the next 87.72 that gives a chapter wave 2 bar reversal but then it had a sudden spike up on earnings news or whatever it was yesterday and what was the high you're not gonna believe it 89.05 so where's your round number the round number was the low 85 and that says if a micron is able to close two sessions above 85 that says no I don't think of the downside just yet it's got sideways action to go it isn't ready for the downside but it is already taking out the left side low of the 26 of 81.98 so you're watching this really closely there was a round number there I'll be back is a trap and Tiger misses out does a 447 you're seeing a rotation into the form of weeks week area right like boss up like that and the big winners are taking a breather are you having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with become an apex predator in the trading markets and join the Tiger's Den trading room only at tfnn.com the Tiger's Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas join the den and surround yourself with the sharpest minds in the trading world subscribers to the Tigers Den are also the first to have their questions answered live on air and can privately chat with our tfnn hosts live during their shows interact with other Tigers and Tigers 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the big moves to the upside up 70 80 points in the in the S&P today it's up 45 still very good but as I say I think we're looking at some form of rotation so a chunk of what's been done when you look at the time period look at this the Dow time period from November the 8th at 36,000 to 565 down to the 200 period moving average it's ready for a decent arch formation and then maybe it comes down and retest I think we've seen a low but not the low and one of the reasons I say that is because within the context of rotation a rotational action that's where you can see some indices make lows at a different time to others that's very different to a major sell-off where everything comes down at the same time so we're looking at something a little different here in a way I'm kind of upset that I didn't say to subscribers hey this is by the Dow this morning at the at the opening and we're doing the Dow diamonds we'll just treat it as a trade but I'm thinking one or two or three percent rather let's go for something else use that money in a different way as one of the reasons why we started a short elsewhere that yep it's got three times the risk but at least we're looking at the try I always believe that you should not let them you should feel that you have some control in the market for instance about seven weeks eight weeks ago I think I said this is a time that if you're looking at putting in longer-term money that I would actually do something else that I would maybe take something off and then scale in over series of months put money back in the money that you take out just scale it in so this would be the third month and you could go all the way into jerry maybe even to february just putting that money back because that's another way of taking money out when markets at highs and then using money management so there are a whole bunch of ways to do this but the chart formation says this peak D in the weekly chart it could have a bounce but this probably has to be some test doesn't have to go to yesterday's low it could go lower it could go high doesn't matter but the internal low well number one is I like internal lows that are made on a whopper of a down day that just takes everybody's anyone who was long since I've just I've had it I'm out of here and then it reverses it makes a v-shaped pattern like you did back look at this one you're right here back on March 23rd of 2020 and then it doesn't look back and it moves higher that's number one number two is I'm always afraid of there have been turnarounds where the market has turned because of overnight action and what happens then is that often has to still see another low where you get that v-shaped turn from everyone just throwing it just all the reporters that say I love this I've always had this picture the reporters stand there outside Wall Street they're ready for this big major sell-off this is the day that everything the world ends and they go home with the cameras no picture no nothing just very quiet you just say oh and the doubt turned around was up 150 then I say it was down 450 and then it closed up so that's the kind of low that I like where it just it's a silent rate happens so quickly that people can't believe three days later that it is way off the lows I don't think we're there but I don't think we're even close to that right now let's go to Mark and Ford Collins Mark how are you good how are you I'm good so we took a shot at rig um yes and it didn't work out it was a small loss but I'm looking at the OH as a more general play wondering um looks like it might be coming down to test the left side low in the mid 160s or do you think it's doing the test the left side low of the one mid 170s and this might be all it comes down so folks we're looking at the OH which is the this is the let me just move the service the oil service etf OH is trading at 177 60 up to 268 that sounds great but yesterday was a whopper of a move from the 184 level down to what 171 so um this is going to be a process the process is going to be how let me just see what the oil is doing it should be the same kind of yep it looks exactly the same leg after the downside this is exactly on a purely technical basis where um the application of two or three different techniques can give you a perfect turn or a perfect miss the fact that it went under the 200 period moving average at 67 in crude oil let me just see if the oh i h did the same thing oops oh i h type there yes it's way under the 200 period moving average so that is like a barrier i think you've seen it so many times that we we use the 200 period moving average either as a springboard or repellent zone or it just starts a hugging process where it's like a magnet and you can go up and down you're like a like a on a spit like a like a like a piece i meet that's just getting toasted and roasted as it moves up and down and up and down going nowhere but in a trading band with that middle point in this case the 200 period moving average as the fulcrum i i'm looking at this and saying it on a purely technical basis the weekly chart is not done with its consolidation on a purely technical basis the week the monthly chart says it is in an area that is mixed because the 9 period moving average is barely positive but it is positive the magnate is good and the uh sarcastic is down at 66 percent not that great on balance volume is pulled back so it really is the daily that's going to dictate whether or not you get the weekly chart to improve and then of course the monthly and all i'm going to say is i want to move this out and this is where you want the big picture so for a big picture you need to move out and look at this the doji candle on the 4th of june at 248.09 in the oh i h saw a move down that kept making the dreaded h a failure pattern keeps doing it it's actually more like a lowercase h that goes through an m and then the right side of the m fails and then it finally went down to a head and inverted head and shoulders pattern with the low that was made in the oh i h right there on the 20th of is that day 20th of august 2021 at 164.41 and then it started and moved up and went into that rectangle formation this one was at the bottom and what does it say it says you can break to the downside it's the exact inverse of the iwm or the pattern we were looking at just a little while ago and then you could break to the upside if you break to the upside you can turn that whole rectangle into support level and lo and behold it broke the 190 495 resistance and it went all the way to 229.28 on october the 18th only to reverse in an art formation but it hasn't made and the reason why i wanted to do this was to see did it make a lower low and so far it hasn't get you hold on because this is getting even more interesting okay we'll be back with log and the dollars up here one thing that might have been the gains here up there are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the bay area 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bear ETFs visit direction investments dot com slash biotech today an investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction chairs carefully before investing the prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact direction shares at 866-476-7523 the prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four-side fund services LLC don't forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv that's tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv college we're looking at the oh i h so i throw a couple packets in and the reason why i want to look at the big picture is that i want you to see where previous resistance was where previous support was there was double support in the 174s uh going back all the way to july and for just that rectangle formation stayed in place until it broke down and i should have typed in during the break what this low was i think i said 160 something 164.41 so let's just type that in 164 the head for the shoulders 164.41 okay and there we are we've traded today we've done we're 172 uh we were we're at 177 we were 172.32 today so i don't think we're ready for a big move up in the oh i h from the pattern that i'm looking at but i do think that we're getting closer and closer to a tradable and tradable just means it's like um a three to seven percent rally uh and when i say that i also mean that within that rally there is risk so i'm just going to suggest to you keep your eye on it you might miss a little bit of a bounce but my the weekly chart at this particular point suggests that the 172 to 168 area probably needs to be tested um and i don't think it's ready for a v-shaped turnaround to the upside not from the pattern i'm looking at so i'm just going to say i wanted to take time on that because i haven't looked at crude oil and all the different variants in detail i've looked at them quickly but this is the first time i've actually taken time the the line period moving average is still way below the 14 it's going to take a lot of effort to get the nine to cross positive i think there's plenty of time for a bigger move to identify a bigger move and at this particular point i to try to pick a bottom in crude oil when there's so much going on nationally internationally i just think that you have time but i know that you as a trader you're also very good at trading so i would say based on my 120 minute chart this low that's being made here is one that says it could fill part of yesterday's ugly candle but there's a real good chance that it has to come back to a test at least the 176 is if it balances i hope that covers a chunk of what i'm looking at i'm just just because they don't necessarily go together but they're often asked in unison you remember that you and g that we were looking at or i did not you but we were looking at yesterday because there were questions that came up look you and g went underneath that chapwave inside track the support level and now it's a little bit inside it's up 13 says at 1404 this is the kind of pattern that says well it could bounce but it's making lower lows and lower highs and they really chart is very ugly this is united states national gas i'm kind of putting them together at this point because they've traded together this is saying it's ready for a little bit of a bounce whether it can be much more in the ung from 1406 to 1550 1598 really depends on a close in the 1460 area and for the crude oil but since you were looking at you're looking at oh crude oil needs to is trading at 65 right now the low today is 62 43 if crude oil in the next two days actually closes above 68 15 that's going to be a sign you've got a bit of a tradable bottom here so i took a long way to say it but it's i think it's enough people have asked me over the last three days about this particular area i'm just saying i would not treat it anything other than a quick trade i don't see the low as in place just yet hope that helps you yeah thanks for keeping an eye on this and i'm sure you'll be when we're ready to jump in you'll let us know i hope so yes thank you very much for calling so folks let me just do a couple of things here it came up just questions a question came up here about food to food to and i i i i've just made it really clear it's made a lower low today it's trading down to dollar 89 and 4205 i think the person i might i might have not read it quickly i just did it it's still shortest or looking at it on the downside yeah be careful because the fxi which is the china all caps is the big caps the china etf hasn't taken out the left side low of october around about the 30 in the 37s but it has in fact made lower lows since that pd top um what's his closely because of the what happened to the china stocks there are just some stocks that sometimes get picked upon and anything can happen to that we've seen that often enough all the rest might be do okay but the ones that are being picked on just stay away uh baba was one of those where's baba right now baba's making lower lows oh my god look at this 123 just it was a 180 just in late october it's now 123 peak d all-time high was back in the 320 level was that all-time high round number um let me just check ali baba all-time i was 274.29 uh wow can you believe it uh more than cut in half just be real careful that's all i'm saying in fact i don't even know i wouldn't i wouldn't even be putting um any any money in the china china area i don't see why there's so many great american companies even if these are american companies that have a base somewhere else um they're traded here they don't they're not necessarily uh they don't have the the weight of of china legislation or they're not legislation just statements behind them just be real careful uh clf question clf is uh can you post clf yep there's clf um it's right on the 200 period moving average cleven cliffs ink flat roll steel iron ore iron ore pellets had a 26.51 high back in late october it's trading now at 20.22 it's in the in the sideways range these are all the stocks for those of you interested in my newsletter at some point and it might be sooner rather than later we will be looking at the slx which is the steel etf we'll be looking at the x which is u.s steel i want this area but i just think it's a little risky just at the moment but this will be uh one to look at another one is the iai which is the i shares broker dealer and security etf made an all-time high of 116.25 on the 2nd of november i went all the way down to the 160 yesterday i said that should be supported we we're still long call from 44 45.65 on the 24th of uh march from last year taking lots of little bits of to try to keep a core position just a little tanzel and this is the area you want to be for the next big move in the market that would include charles schwaab and you want you don't believe it but hood will be in play or something like hood will be in play uh but we don't want to touch it not even look at it since it made its all-time high after the ipo very soon after that in the 83 area i think they made a round number high did it was that a round number high um 85 85 round number those round numbers keep them in mind they could be very very informative round number high oh and by the way at 85 round number high is trading right now hood robin hood is trading at 23 i would say that's a little bit of a pullback all right just be careful but this could be on the list as a real speculative when we start to get into the feeding frenzy of the market later on 2022 all right what we're looking at oh wasn't that quick uh captain will continue to sell you well you remember yesterday you i said don't touch it yet unity um made a round number 207 high on the left side then it went two days four days later two days 80 210 round number high with a round number 190 he opened unity soft he uses simple trading looking behind right now sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at tfnn you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and tfnn's youtube channel with tiger tv live every market day from 8 30 a.m to 4 p.m eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds tiger tv has eight different 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7% per year paid monthly for more information you can call 877-518-9190 that's 877-518-9190 this segment is brought to you by thinkorswim for more information just click the thinkorswim banner on the front page of tfnn.com i just to clarify uh all those types in here uh keep pumping and video the average new ford uh has over 100 different computer chips what could possibly go wrong in very big caps keep pumping i i'm not sure paul are you are you listening to what i'm saying i'm not sure you're listening i just said that the smh's are rolling over and that i'm looking at the dreaded age pattern which i've been discussed i mean forever and that nvidia is part of it one of the leaders and it's starting to fail and i'm looking for lower prices i mean i don't know what you're listening to anyway so in the meantime back at the ranch apple i can only count it as a peak c there's no other way if i counted as a chapwave unconventional fat based restart tomorrow's tequila friday i'll go into that that pc could in fact turn out to be a peak of significance at 170.30 it's capped down to the down five and all i can say is that the high if it closes if apple closes under 153 at any point in the next three sessions three four sessions it's at 159 right now so that looks very difficult to do but if it closes under 153 that's it for apple for the shorter term it's the only one that has gotten to a letter in the chapwave methodology this is it should go to a higher high just on the lettering but the technicals are saying well it's going to be real tough to do okay with that said when i hand you over to larry persevent I'm going to do the quicker update for the 11 a.m update hanging over to larry of course you're great programming yeah larry think of Steve Rhodes Dave White and tom of ryan but in the meantime back at the ranch i'm giving you numbers to look at if the vix index vi x dot x trading right now at 30.21 down just 91 cents if it closes the day under 29 30 that's going to help the market close towards the high of the day but every reason the songs to trade towards the city city right now towards the city one level as the market starts to move back be careful of Friday we can get laid deep in the fix tomorrow so just be careful that's all i'm saying this is quick balance uh in the market how far and how high is going to be the question watch the cues watch the estimations have a great day