 Good day fellow investors. During the past weeks my stocks to watch screen has been bleeding red and that usually makes me smile because it means that opportunities are coming my way. In 2016-2017 I made amazing returns from Brazil so I would like to share with you hopefully the same returns I enjoyed in the past in the future because opportunities might be there. Let's see. First an example of what I did in the past as you can see here my articles on Seeking Alpha on a Brazilian utility from January 2016, March 2016 when the stock price was below 2 it went down to 1.05 the lowest purchase and then I sold above 2 depending on the risk reward up to 3. Why did I sell? Because again of the risk reward so I always think be greedy when others are fearful and be very greedy when others are fearful in emerging markets because they don't understand them. So it's time to look again at Brazil all the investment opportunities find the best risk reward opportunities which are usually those with low risk so low potential of capital losses and huge amazing potential returns. The topics of today are a general overview of Brazilian stocks, an economic overview, the short-term view which is what the markets are looking but I prefer to look at a long-term perspective of the country then we look at investment opportunities we have 30 stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and 48 over the counter and then I'll finish with my investment strategy and what I'll be doing the next week to to find the best investment in Brazil. So the Fed has been increasing interest rates and the first cracks have started showing up in emerging markets because emerging markets have a lot of US denominated debt and their revenues are in their weakening currencies. So those are two headwinds that make it difficult for them to repay for them to take more loans increase their interest rates and the economies grow slower. So when that happens it leads to something extremely important for emerging markets and that is market sentiment because those markets are shallow and then market sentiment as most investors like to make a quick buck here and there then they chase returns the same principle applies on the other way it's always a self-reinforcing trend so when stocks go up then investors chase those returns when stocks start going down when the trend is negative when the series of news are negative then people start selling selling selling and selling in panic no matter the fundamentals no matter the price because all what they can see okay there is more uncertainty more bad news ahead let's sell no matter the price because this will go even lower and that's what gives us the opportunity those who have the stomach to invest in emerging markets when nobody else wants. Take a look at how volatile the Brazilian ETF is. It was a 15 bagger from 2002 to 2008 only to drop 70% in the final year of that bull run 2008 there was another bull run in 2009 from 2009 the ETF declined up till 2016 and there has been another boom 2016-17 only to drop 40% over the last six months. I'm going to immediately tell you that I have no idea where the bottom will be and nobody has the only thing we can look at is find good businesses with great fundamentals that will do good no matter what which means that we limit our long-term risks but have a good exposure a good business return first and there is always the potential that the stock doubles if the sentiment again towards Brazil changes. The key of owning a good business is to be happy when the stock price drops so that you can average down and you can buy more for cheaper but I'll finish with that on my investment thesis investment scenario but let's now look at the economic economic situation in Brazil there are two ways you can look at economics one you can follow the news and what the news is selling to you what they are feeding you to get more clicks and more views there's nothing else so you can watch that or you can watch real key indicators that show you how an economy is growing development or not let me show you both views the short-term view everybody is looking at the currency the currency has weakened over the past few months central bank has been trying to stabilize that but not really succeeding as people are selling off their Brazilian assets due to they already mentioned panic but currency volatility is something we have to watch and take advantage of just to mention the Brazilian bank is protecting the currency with foreign exchange swaps I think it was 26 billion in the previous week US dollars so investors again wonder for how long will they be able to do that the currency in combination with striking trackers where the country was paralyzed for more than a week led economists to cut their 2018 growth forecasts for seven consecutive weeks so from a growth of 3% GDP the group is down still to growth of 1.76 so it's not a recession yet but we are still at growth another thing that Wall Street doesn't like is uncertainty because then you don't know what will happen and wannabe investors are not that developed to be able to understand uncertainty and investing uncertainty where the best opportunities are the problem is that nobody knows who will be the next Brazilian president what will be the political direction Brazil will take as you can see here Bolsonaro has about 19 20% in the polls others have 10 15% but you never know who will take the win so what I prefer to do here is make my investment analysis and thesis as the worst will come so let's say the currency depreciates another 25% let's say there is a recession and let's say there is a political a business unfriendly political party at the helm of the country if in that environment I managed to find a good business that will do well and that is cheap because ETFs are selling all around the world and everybody has that mentality herd mentality then I'm finding myself bargain a margin of safety and value for low risk higher returns let me show you the long term economic view on Brazil this is internet penetration and over the last 10 years Brazil has really improved from 23% of people having internet access now we are more than 70 and that will probably grow in the future so more internet is good developing there are opportunities there are markets growing despite the all the turmoil and despite the fact that the Brazilian stock market is still 70% below the 2008 peak things are growing there something I like even more is to look at energy consumption because it shows how the real economy is developing what are things doing and not GDP related that shows just some things so we can see that in energy consumption in Brazil has been growing has grown what 30% in the last 10 years which means that the economy is growing the people are continuing to live are improving their lives and things are getting better no matter what might be the picture shown to us by short term news let's take a look at investment opportunities the brazil etf from ice shares has already a price earnings ratio lower than the average of 14.18 the price to book ratio is also good 1.56 but I prefer to look at the individual stocks this table can be downloaded in their link below so feel free to check it the all the stocks traded on the new york stock exchange and nasdaq from brazil and then there are always over over the counter stocks but they have low liquidity nevertheless always I will take a look also at those because you never know what you can find compare and perhaps even its worth to pay a little bit extra to find something better so I'm going to be looking at what 78 79 stocks going to compare them all find the best investments see what is the best margin of safety low risk high reward investment it will take time but that's the only way you can really approach long term sustainable investments in order to reach market beating or in order to reach even more important satisfying long term returns that will lead you to your investment goals to conclude with the investment strategy you have to find businesses that give you a good business return no matter what and you have to be ready to average down which means that you have to have the stomach to take another 50 drop in the stock market as it is volatile as people sell in panic and be ready to buy when everybody will think that the country is going bankrupt that all the stocks will go bankrupt and then that there is only doom and gloom in brazil so when that happens then you have to be greedy that's why I'm taking my time take a look at everything and really invest when there is an opportunity fortunately emerging markets are very volatile so you get one two three opportunities per year to invest in something really cheap let's dig into there will be more videos on youtube most of the content will be on my research platform but I think I will be able to add a lot of value also to only the youtube viewers so please subscribe thank you for watching looking forward to your comments some interesting insights that you might have always like to share to add value to our viewers see you in the next video