 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network The NFL schedule release for 2023 is tonight and frankly It's kind of dull the fact they have like a full show and a full thing leading up to the release of the schedule is Pretty annoying, but it does matter for us is better because we can decide When we want to bet futures markets and different teams based on when they play certain teams based on if their schedule is front Loaded being tough back load or whatever it may be and you know rest travel all that stuff does matters It doesn't matter for us as betters but I also think it's a good excuse to talk about strength of schedule and I think that a lot of times when we discuss this we discuss in a Very flawed manner what I do for today is use my power rankings to Lay out which teams have the toughest schedules for this year talk through what that means to their wind totals And hopefully try to give you a better metric for that than what you'll see typically when schedules are discussed for Tonight welcome on in to covering the spread. That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonness. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire talking here about some NFL Strength as schedule numbers based on what my numbers are showing we'll talk through the three teams with the toughest schedules this year The three of the easiest schedules again based on just my numbers Hopefully trying to dissect whether that makes sense whether that's a flawed way to look at it and much more to give some insight into the schedules and hopefully a better way of looking at it then looking at Opposing teams record from the previous year will also dig into some NASCAR and Garlington talking through cup series Exiting series truck series all at the same time giving you where my numbers are showing value for this week Over at Fandall sportsbook But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast tomorrow I will not be here. I'm gonna have Tom Vecchio feeling for me on Friday and Monday My wife's PhD hooding is coming up on Friday. So I'll be at that So thank you to Tom for filling in for me while I'll be gone there as a result No video version of the show Friday and Monday over on the Fandall YouTube page But there will be a an audio version on the covering the spread podcast feed So make sure you're subscribed there and if you like what you hear leave us a five star rating as well Thank you to advance to Tom for filling in for me The NBA playoffs are in full swing and you can get on the action right now over at Fandall sportsbook right now all customers Not just new customers getting no sweats same game parlay every weekend of the NBA playoffs That's right Just play say three plus legs same game parlay or same game parlay plus on any NBA playoff game You'll get bonus bets back if you don't win There's no better place to bet all the playoff action than America's number one sports book head to the Fandall app and getting no sweats Same game parlay every weekend of the NBA playoffs Fandall official sports betting partner of the NBA must be 21 plus and president select states Fandall is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas dark Sino LLC Bonus issued is not the trouble bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt Restrictions applies the terms at sportsbook.fandall.com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit fandall.com Slash RG and Massachusetts hope is here gambling helpline ma. Or or call you 800 327 50 50 or 24 7 support in New York 1877 8 hope and wire text open wide in Arizona 1 800 next step or text next step to 533 42 in Connecticut 188 789 7777 or visit ccpg.org fast chat in Indiana 1809 with it in Wyoming in Kansas 1805 224 700 or in Kansas KS gambling help calm Louisiana is 1807 7 770 stop in Maryland MD gambling help that org and in West Virginia go to 1 800 gambler net Now let's talk here about the NFL strength of schedule and as mentioned you're gonna see a lot of tweets I've already seen them about Strength of schedule and how tough a team schedule is and a lot of those at least the ones released from NFL Communications for some reason are based on the opposing teams record the previous year They will caveat it saying that it's flawed and it is so I think the simplest solution is if it's that flawed Just don't use it, but you will see it out there for sure others are smarter I've seen this past couple years where they will use betting markets to tell you the strength of schedule and that's awesome that is a lot smarter way because markets are more efficient than Last year's schedule the jets in 2023 are very different than the jets in 2022 So using markets to decide that much smarter the one flaw there is that The wind totals for teams facing the chiefs are inherently lower because the chiefs are on their schedule That's going to in a way make the chiefs schedule look easier than it is. So It is a much better route than using last year's numbers I think I respect this route a lot for sure, but that is that one flaw is that It already kind of factors in they're like, oh, they're facing these teams So it makes the good teams look like they have easier schedules and they may actually have So I wanted to run through what I've got in this regard I have a power rating for each team that accounts for all season moves and projects What I expect them to be like this upcoming year I can take that power rating and then look at the wind total for each team That will give me an expected wind total based on each team's power rating and based on their power rating alone If a team has a much lower wind total projected by my numbers Then you'd expect based on their power rating and implies their schedule is difficult So a team is rated at x and they're projected to win y games if they are projected to win Actually win projected y minus one games that implies that their schedule is very tough One win less than you'd expect based on their power rating their verse would be true as well So this is also flawed because it assumes my model is correct and that's obviously not the case I would love for that to be the case, but it's flawed But I do think that this is a good way of looking at things And it's better than looking at last year's schedule I do think the market angle is probably correct too, but you know, this is a hopefully unique way to look at it Once buys are announced I can add that in and stuff But this is accounting for opponents faced where they'll face them and things like that So for today wanted to run through the teams the toughest schedules. Those are the easiest to outline What that means as far as What my numbers say I'll run through the expected win total based on the team's power rating The actual projected wins my numbers and their win total over at fan dual sports book When I dig into my numbers the team with the expected Toughest schedule so far this year is the new england patriots because right now if you take Just the power rating that my numbers have for the patriots their win total will be 7.8 But when you plug in their actual schedule, their projected win totals by my numbers is 6.9 It's almost a full win lower than you'd expect based on their team's strength in my model Their win total at fan dual sports book is seven and a half. The under is even money I think there is value on the under here as a result of this and the reason the patriot schedule is so tough is because the afc east itself Is very tough. You got the bills there. I think the jets as much as we can joke about them Will be significantly better with Aaron Rodgers in town versus Zach Wilson Rodgers played through a thumb injury all of last year Comes over here. I think the offensive line They've got a lot of depth that tackled despite not being very strong there And then you have Garrett Wilson and competent pass catchers beyond him as well So the jets are tough dolphins if two is healthy or tough But also there even if two a does miss time that defense should be good with Vic Fangio in town as well Outside of the afc east the patriots also facing the afc west so facing the chiefs facing the chargers teams like that My numbers don't hate the raiders or the broncos as well. So that's a tough road and the nfc east So you get the eagles you get the cowboys Giants and commanders not as big of a tough of a task, but It's a really difficult schedule here for new england I do not have the patriots favored in any of their road games as of right now So I think they'll be better this year. I like what they did in the draft Taking three offensive linemen pretty late to try to give themselves swipes at high upside positions And I like that a lot. I think that approach was good bringing in bill o'brien should help them a lot too But it's a very tough schedule It's tough to be super jazzed about this passing offense in terms of efficiency So I think when you look at the schedule for the patriots the under seven and a half and even money Does make a lot of sense. That's what I'd be willing to make Based largely on the schedule they'll face this year The number two toughest schedule across the nfl for this season based on my numbers is the washington commanders If you look at their power rating, they'd be expected to win seven point three games I hadn't been projected for six point eight now this one is actually in line with what the market has because the market has the Commanders win total at six point five with the over at minus one twenty two So if I've got six point eight wins, I won't say exactly a lot at the market there Uh at six and a half over at minus one twenty two big thing here is obviously the nfc east that is a a tough Path for them. They're facing the ascs too. So similar pathway here as the patriots Now the commander is the difference for them is they do get some pretty good matchups at home They'll face the bears at home. They'll face the cardinals who may or may not be tanking And that's part of why even with a tough schedule I have them projected a hair above their actual win total for this year But it is a tough road part of this too is I've got them projected decently high because of their defense But also I don't think Sam Howells and like the worst position to succeed. I did like Howell coming out of the draft it's hard to have high expectations for a guy who was a fifth round pick but Had good collegiate efficiency numbers outside of being sacked a lot Um, you know, he's young. He was decently efficient pretty experience coming out checks a lot of box in that regard So I don't mind the commanders this year, but that's schedule very very tough And it keeps me away from taking the over six and a half Uh at minus one twenty two Despite the fact based on their actual strength their wind hole for me should be seven point three So they could bump down half a win based on the schedule. They'll face the third toughest schedule for this year It's just uh, then data against all patriots associated teams It seems like because the las vegas raiders have the third toughest schedule I think that might be why their wind total came down. It was seven and a half It was um, I think plus money on the over It's now six and a half with minus 144 on the over and similar to washington I think this is in line the market is correct on this one because I've got The raiders expected wins based on their power rating at seven point six Their projected wins are seven point ones so down a half win based on their schedule And the wind total is six and a half with minus 144 on the over I think with the schedule they're facing that's enough to push me away from taking over six and a half Despite the fact that jimmy groplos fine. Um, they've got davante adams got some decent infrastructure I still think that we can stay away from the over here As a result of the schedule they're facing the asc west obviously given they are in the asc west and they're facing asc east too Uh, so they get the the the bills jets dolphins patriots Their nsc matchup is the north so that's not bad because the only team i'm super high on there is the lions and The vikings are fine packers fine bearers below average So the nsc portion is not that bad But when you're facing the cheese twice facing the chargers twice I don't again. I don't mind the broncos all that much It's a pretty tough road So I do have them projected above their wind total But once you account for the juice at minus 144 or they become a stay away Because the schedule for the raiders is very tough So the three toughest schedules that my numbers are the patriots commanders and raiders And I think that there is some value in taking the under on the patriots at seven and a half wins That is even money right now at fangirls sportsbook other tough schedules to this year by my numbers are the cardinals therefore The nsc west is not great, but it's still a tough schedule Followed by the giants the chargers and the broncos. So those are the top seven as far as toughest schedules for this year On the flip side the easiest schedule for 2023 based on just my numbers I don't think it'll be a shock to anybody given the division they play in but it belongs to the new orland saints The new orland saints if you just take You know Derek Carr in this offense with a pretty good defense I'd have them projected for 8.7 wins. That's not bad. That's an okay number for sure But when you add in their schedule, I have them projected for 10 wins So they get a a bump of 1.3 wins based on the schedule They will face alone that is a huge bump their wind total at fangirls sportsbook is nine and a half with the over at plus 106 So even though that number is high when you look at it It is like kind of like startling how high that number is for the saints I do still think there are some appeal In potentially taking the over there because of the route they will face the saints this year facing the nsc south so Facing a rookie quarterback in the panthers either Baker mayfuel or Kyle Trask and They get the falcons. My numbers are not super enthusiastic about as we'll discuss here in a second They also face the nsc north. So as mentioned not a super tough division as Producers and this is the key part here for the nsc south. So they face the afc south I think that the cults could be fun this year. I don't think the cults would be good though Like they're gonna be fun to watch doesn't mean I think they'll be great get the texans You know a rookie quarterback there as well The titans are a very odd team And then you get the jags. I like the jags plenty, but the afc south is a good draw for sure So the saints Again, if you go just based on their power rating projected for 8.7 wins But I've got them at 10 as a result of the schedule they will face massive massive boost so despite the fact i'm not I think the saints are about an average team based on my numbers I do still think there is appeal in over nine nav wins at plus 106 right now Over at fandal sports. Like it might feel stupid. It might feel gross But there is potentially some value there as of right now The second easiest schedule is also in the nfc south However, this is what i'm not going to be taking the over on their wind total despite the fact their schedule is very very easy That team is the atlanta falcons The falcons their wind total of fandal sports book is eight and a half with the under at minus 110 If you just take the falcons power rating in my model and plug it out there Their expected wind total would be 6.6 two wins below their total When you add in their schedule it bumps up to 7.3 So they gain 0.7 wins based on the schedule they will face which is a good number, but it's still 1.2 wins below their total. So even with an easy schedule I think that there is value in the under here on the falcons. So they get the same route as The saints get where they're facing the nfc south the nsc north and the asc south They do have a lot of winnable games at home. They've got green bay at home houston indian washington But the road schedule is very very tough So the falcons have the second easiest schedule in the league I still think there is value in the under on eight and a half wins at minus 110 desmond ridder Played decent last year. I thought that he was pretty fun coming out of Cincinnati. So it's not really a ridder thing It's a the defense Has a long way to go. They've made a ton of swipes that defense, you know, especially late in the draft They took a lot of swipes there a lot of ads and free agency, but they had a long way to go So i'm still a bit pessimistic here. I understand why this wind total is high and i'm not like Jumping to take the under but I do think there is value in the under at eight and a half wins in minus 110 Despite the fact the falcons have the second easiest schedule by my numbers this year The 30 easiest schedule going back to the nsc north and its team that is going to be playing an opening day in the nfl Against the can city chiefs. That is the detroit lions their wind total nine and a half over as minus 122 I've got that about right based on their strength because the lion's strength has them as a 9.8 win team based on my power rating But once you plug in their schedule their wind total for me is 10.4 So almost a full win over the total at nine and a half So I think there is value in the over here for the lions at uh minus 122 over nine and a half If you look at the home games for detroit, those are largely super winnable Obviously all the nfc north teams at home, but also they get atlanta at home carolina and las vegas The schedule is pretty easy here despite facing the afc west again They get the chiefs an opening day dolls left face the chargers the raiders and the broncos But they also do get the nfc south So they benefit from the nfc south being very very poor They benefit from facing a lot of very soft teams at home which jacks up their their expected wind total or their Expected win odds in those games quite a bit and gives them some pretty steady baselines for wins I do tend to like jared golf. So maybe this is me just being too high on him But this is even with their wind total or their projected passing efficiency being lower for 2023 that it was in 2022 This will change their wind total will change based on uh the schedule being released tonight because we'll know When james and williams is suspended. I have it just kind of baked in as if he's playing 11 out of 17 games right now But if they have a super tough uh first six games before williams is back Then that will lower their wind total or if their easier games are coming in the first six that may actually increase their wind total from where it is So this number will change I'd be okay waiting to take the over nine and a half right now because again, I got them a 10.4 Over nine and a half minus 122 not a ton of wiggle room there. So I'd wait until the line schedule is released, but Assuming they don't get just totally skewered In their schedule release with a lot of tough teams early on I think there could be some value in the lines over nine and a half winds at minus 122 So Situations of monitoring. I do like the lions over nine half winds I do like the falcons under eight and a half despite needs the schedule Don't mind the saints over nine and a half at plus one of six as far as the tougher schedules Do you like the patriots under seven and a half at even money as of right now other easy schedules? I would note the panthers of course in the nfc south The the cults in the antsy south and the jags in the antsy south and the 49ers in the nfc west Given the weakness of the rands and the cardinals not a huge shock to see the 49ers there so Again, easiest schedules this year saints falcons lions panthers cults jags and 49ers Hopefully that makes a lot of sense. Hopefully it's not too self flattering to use my power ratings to judge Strength the schedule, but again, you know, I think there are flaws other ways There are flaws every way in measuring strength the schedule So hopefully this has been a useful exercise for you and trying to project out scheduling strength Let's shift gears now and talk about some nascar because we got a lot of nascar coming up this week It is in darlington throwback weekend for the nascar cup series where they're running a lot of old school paint schemes always a fun time We had three races coming up with the trucks Xfinity and the cup series all running in darlington for this weekend As far as the cup series goes I'm not seeing a ton of value as of right now at fan dual sports book I have kyle larson at 15 to win this race His implied odds at five to one are 16.7 percent So if you are able to get access to larson at six to one or longer, I'd fire away That's a pretty good bet But at five to one I can't quite get there I do think there is a route to betting on kyle larson this weekend Which we'll talk about later on But I can't quite get there on the outright market at fan dual sports book for this week I have very close to showing valian ross chest 8 and 11 to 1 I have met 7.5 percent to win so 1300 or longer would probably be a good number there at 13 to 1 or longer William Byron has 10 to 1 some places plus 850 at fan dual sports book I'd have fair value in him is uh plus 11 20 is i odds me 8.2 percent So i'm watching larson to see if I can get a six I'm watching chastain to see if I can get 13 to 1 or longer Then watching Byron to see if I can get 12 to 1 or longer on him Fan dual does not have top 10 odds up yet for the nascar cups Here's let me just check here one last time to see If those have been posting in the past couple of minutes. Oh, they have okay. How about that? So fan duals posted top 10 odds I'm going to run through these right now and see if there is any value and Oh, there is a little bit. Okay So the guy i'm focusing on right now as far as being an out a value to finish top 10 Is corey lejoy. He is 11 to 1 to finish top 10 at fan dual sports book You can actually get 15 to 1 elsewhere and I show value even at 11 to 1 So I think lejoy is a good bet. I have corey lejoy in the top 10 At 12 percent of the time that seems like a grotesque number his implied odds at 11 to 1 are Lower than that. They'd be under 10 percent 11 to 1 8.3 percent. So implied odds 8.3 percent I have lejoy at 12 percent to finish top 10 The reason he is there is because his form has been much better this year ran pretty well in fontana another high tire wear track With a lot of speed. So that was encouraging because spire's big issue is speed But lejoy actually did hang pretty well in that one We went to las vegas. Lejoy is also competent there had good speed in dover was solid last week in uh, kansas And darwin does a track where he's actually been good in the past. He had a run here back in 2021 I believe where he ran top 15 pretty much the entire night didn't finish top 10 But he was good. So we've seen lejoy pop at this track before His current form is the best it has ever been by a wide margin I think 11 to 1 is a really good number. So if you can get 15 to 1 go take that It's a great number But even at 11 to 1 at fan dual sports book I do still think core lejoy is a value for this race I also would add I want to give like the biggest of caveats here Please don't like, you know dump a lot of money on this because I have value in core lejoy to win elsewhere. He's a thousand to one to win the implied odds that are 0.1 I have my 0.36 to win. So It's a bet that loses 99.6 percent of the time. I want to be very clear about that But I did bet it myself. I took the 1000 to 1 on lejoy to win. It's not going to happen. It happens one out of every 100 and something times but Worth a shot one. I've already like 200 times actually, but I think it was worth a shot for me. So I did take lejoy A thousand to one to win. It's a stupid bet. I'm not saying you should follow it But I did show value there. So core lejoy 11 to 1 the more sound bets over a fan dual sports book for this week I mentioned before that you can bet kyle larson this weekend without taking the 5 to 1 in the cup series That's because he is also running in the Xfinity series And I do show value on him at 2 to 1 at fan dual sports But you can't get plus 225. I believe out there still But I have larson at 37.4 to win so value at both these numbers 2 to 1 or 225 Larson is driving for colleague racing in this event. That's not the same equipment as junior motorsports car So it's not the best equipment But it's fine equipment that can win at this track. Were they good enough driver and kyle larson very good at darwinton he's a little bit erratic he can be kind of Maybe get out over his skis a little bit at times, but I think that he is a very talented race car driver. You put him up against this kind of field I do respect a lot of the drivers in this field in the Xfinity But I think kyle larson is still the best So he has not won darwinton in the cup series before I think he could get a win on saturday in xfinity I would not be shocked if he did it on sunday in the cup series as well 2 to 1 for darwinton For larson at darwinton is a fine number on the xfinity side of things Even with larson sucking up 37 of the win equity in my model I also have austin hill as a value. He is 28 to 1 at fan dual sports book I got him at 35 elsewhere earlier this week So shop around on austin hill see what number you can get but Even at 28 to 1 would be a slight value for me at fan dual sports book I have him at 4.2 to win his implied odds at 28 to 1 or 3.4 percent implied odds at 35 to 1 I think are 2.8 percent, but Either way good value on austin hill here. He won los vegas. It's not the best track comp for darwinton, but He has a higher speed track does have at least some tire fall off hill Not the best track record in darwinton specifically either in Xfinity or in the truck series, but this number is very very long So I would be okay taking that. I do think it's okay to shop around on hill for a top five as well He is plus 375 there at other books. So I don't mind that but uh 28 to 1 to win also okay for austin hill other top five bets I like elsewhere. Chandler smith is plus 275 I think with what he's done in In richman's another track with a lot of tire fall off Not a great comp for darwinton, but it's also again the heavy tire fall off thing does matter So he destroys that track plus 275 for a top five to me makes a lot of sense Brandon jones is plus 375. My numbers tend to be a bit too high at him, but You know, it's a jrn car He has experience at darwinton. So plus 375 for a top five makes sense and fine Finally daniel hemrick at plus 750. So every single college car showing value in some Some market for me with larson to win a two to one smith plus 275 top five and then hemrick plus 750 I just think it's a long number. So top five bets I like for xinni chant or austin hill to 375 Chandler smith 275 Brandon jones 375 and daniel hemrick at plus 750 Fandall does not have truck odds up yet. I guess they posted top 10 Maybe I can see no no truck odds yet up yet for a fan duel In darwinton, but you can look elsewhere and I also show some value in a favorite elsewhere for the truck series And that's in a william byron. You can get plus 250 the implied odds there are 29 percent I have byron at 33.6 to win byron is in a kyle bush motorsports truck Which means he will have absurd speed this weekend when you put kyle bush in that truck He can get win odds north of 50 percent But byron there 33 by my model seems pretty reasonable. So Byron at plus 250. I'm very on board of that I think that uh Is weird to bet two super short numbers that a track that does have some chaos like darwinton, but Given how good william byron is how good that equipment is plus 250 I'm very on board of that and very on board with larson a two to one in the xinni series I do also show value in steward freason at 40 to 1 and parker quickerman at 50 to 1 if and will sports book or other books For this race freason's top five mark is plus 450 clickerman is five to one Those are both also values for me. So I don't mind taking swipes at the outripes of 40 and 50 to 1 respectively on freason and clickerman But I think the top five bets are better the better route given that we got Byron in this field chastain's in this field bubble wall is in this field in the very good truck You got coreyla joy here too. Um, not the I'm not sure really what to think of the spire equipment, but There are some good drivers here. So I prefer to go the top five routes with freason at plus 450 clickerman five to one I think both those are good values But if you want to go the outrides, I will not talk you out of it So overall a lot of fun value for this weekend in darwinton We'll see how things play out But what could go wrong with tying your horse to coreyla joy in the cup series a thousand to one to win But 11 to 1 for a top 10 at fandall. I think that makes a lot of sense That's gonna be all we have here for today and for me this week on covering the spread as mentioned Tom becky. Oh filling in for me tomorrow and monday big. Thank you to tom for doing that You can find that on the covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your podcast and as I thank you to tom Make sure you leave a rating a five star rating over at podcast at thank tom for his time filling in for me If you've got any questions for me, I am on twitter at jim saunas j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fandall podcast network at fandall podcast I want to thank you all for tuning in for today Enjoy the schedule release for tonight if you hate your life enough to watch that just kidding. It's great Have fun. Enjoy that. We'll talk to you all next week. This has been covering the spread right here on the fandall podcast network