 Welcome traders to this week's live market and trade analysis session with me, Patrick Munley, we are going to get going here in just another 10 or 15 seconds. Just before we do a quick audio and sound check if you can hear me and you can see the welcome screen if you type a Y into the chat box so that I know we are good to go. Thanks very much guys okay that is 1pm British summertime, and we are going to jump into the charts in a minute first of all, as always want to adhere to the risk disclaimer, most specifically for today's discussion. These expressed by me are solely mine they're not indicative or representative of those held by Tick Mill UK or Tick Mill Europe Limited. For those of you here for the first time briefing introduction to myself after university I joined a city PLC consulting firm. I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co found and exit a consulting startup focus on C suite executive search for technology businesses. Essentially I had a front row seat to the dot com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the market sometimes quite literally overnight. I started to explore my curiosity for markets with some capital to play with and some time on my hands. I started day trading the S&P 500, or more appropriately at that stage day gambling. After some early beginners luck I wrapped up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginners luck run out and as the market phase changed I began to average down into what would prove to be losing positions. I take back all my gains and experienced a significant six figure hit to my capital. Say this was a gut wrenching and so bring experiences number statement. I really have to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the market so I decided to get serious about trading and source as a mentor with an excellent trading track records, working with my mentor for a period of 18 months to two years was during which I not just my technical game in terms of researching developing, sensibly back and forward testing strategies that crucially suited my personality, all of which are underpinned by rigorous risk management approach. But most importantly, during the period of mentorship I significantly developed my mental game, and probably most importantly of all I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal oriented individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process oriented. So what does that actually mean well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback for the markets in the form of losing trades. However, once you become process oriented, and you have a professional trading mindset and you understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities. You lose the emotional investment and that hellish emotional roller coaster feeling of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. So I no longer concerned with the outcome of an individual trade, or even a small string of trades. My focus on the next 100 trades, because I know if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008 since 2013 I've also been managing investor capital through a manager account service, again delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multimillion dollar portfolio. Since 2010 I've mentioned hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring I'm resident market expert exclusively providing market and trade analysis to tick mill clients. I provide an in depth daily market outlook breaking down the fundamental and technical drivers for the day ahead. I also provide daily technical trades setup videos for about three to five markets that I'm actively tracking and I share those through the tick mill trading view accounts. I also provide the tick mills E-mini strategy Facebook group where I post a daily video outlining my pre-market trade plan for the New York cash trading session for the S&P 500. I give my bias for the day ahead and the specific action areas where I'm looking to engage the market. These pre-market plans have delivered over 2400 points of profit since we launched the group last April. I also provide live commentary during the opening hours in New York cash session where traders can essentially see in real time how I dissect markets and I identify asymmetric trading opportunities. These sessions act as a platform helping traders to develop a professional consistent approach to navigating the markets and the mental mind games that must be mastered to make it as a profitable market operator. Okay so that gives you a flavor of where it is I'm coming from and we are going to jump into the charts now. I would just say in terms of the format I'm going to run through the charts that I'm actively tracking at the moment where I see potential trading opportunities developing. And then at the end I will open up a Q&A session so if you've got a chart you want me to take a look at that I don't cover in my presentation you can type it into the chat box and I'll come back to it at the end. Equally if you have any questions as we're going through the charts just type just put those into the chat box as well and like I say at the end I'll come back to those and I'll make sure we cover them all off before wrapping up this session. So as always let's start with the S&P 500 or the E-mini S&P futures contract which is what I trade. What setup really hasn't changed from last week is tracking a five wave sequence which completed into the 16th of June. Since then I've been looking for upside to develop we have traded to the long side I've been actively trading this market in the telegram group and sharing trades and have a very good run in terms of long positions. In terms of the intraday trades I've been trying to get a swing long position going but due to the intraday volatility it's been a little bit tricky. So what I'm looking for now is any move back through 3805 to suggest that we're going to break out of this triangle and extend to the upside. Initial further resistance likely at the 3840s when you get through there then we have weekly projected range resistance 3892 and we have the gap there as well at 3905. Ultimately what I've been looking for would be a bear market rally here to develop and get a test up into the high volume node 4129 and we also have the trend line resistance coming in there as well. As you can see here in terms of the daily candles. Now this is a bullish configuration at the moment so I still remain bullish here for now, they really take a close back through the pivot here at 3690s to suggest that we have, we have a problem in terms of the upside, and they're actually going to rotate lower and we'd be thinking about a move back through the current cycle loads into that 3640 area and weekly projected range brought down to 3574 and the 161 extension of this last move to the upside coming in there as well 3566. But for now, like I say, I'm focused on the upside. As we, as we defend the pivot at 3695. Moving to the NASDAQ, you'll see these equity index is quite a lot of them have a similar setup here at the moment with respect to the NASDAQ again we're completing a five way sequence, we have moved to the upside. What I'm looking at now is the potential that we're actually going to complete a corrective pattern here in the NASDAQ, let me draw this in here. We're going to swing here to this swing here we get an equality objective, which is going to coincide with the daily projected range resistance so if we take out the resistance here at 11,750. The target is going to be 11,900 so about 150 points of upside to play for their, and then we'll see if sellers are going to step back in we've also got the gap there. 11,884 so that's the target so if we get through the current range resistance in terms of the NASDAQ we also have a descending trend line coming in just about their 12,100. So we need to take that out to see a more meaningful upside attempt in terms of the NASDAQ for now but it's similar to the, the SNP sorry, we are in a bullish, bullish pattern at the moment, and it would need to see a loss on a closing basis 11,317 to suggest that we're going to take a lower again and retest the current cycle loads. So the Dow Jones similar setup really to the NASDAQ. We have a potential inverse head and shoulder scenario here so this is our left shoulder, this is our head, and this is our right shoulder so any move through resistance at 30,770s should see us test up there 30,989 so just below that 31,000 level would be the quality objective for this corrective move, and then we'll see if sellers going to step back in again, or if we can get a more meaningful squeeze developing. Let's just draw in the internal trend line resistance here so you can see where we could be headed. So we can, if we don't get, if we don't find sellers at the quality objective 30,989, and we've got this trend line resistance coming in 32,250 area. So that would be the target if we can get a squeeze going here, like I say still a nice bullish configuration. The candles aren't defined by the open, high, low and clothes for their color, they're defined by a five period volume weighted average price. So it's a five day look back and if we're trading above that volume weighted average price, then the candle will be green if we're trading below it's red and I use those for defining, defining trends. So I'm here, and I'm looking for the momentum divergence continues to be maintained so set up for me at this stage is to play counter trend longs in these indexes. The one that said, well there are a couple actually there are a little bit weaker. We have here the Russell. The other US equity indexes have all tested their larger equality objectives versus their daily swing structures that hasn't happened yet in the Russell. However, from a daily trend perspective we are bullish for trading above the five period look back, but Russell just seems to me a little bit weaker than these other indexes and I still have that test down to the 1578 as the downside for I think we see a more meaningful corrective rally in the Russell notes it's also the weekly high volume nodes. So that's in terms of the look back there back to the August of 2018 the last time we had a tightening cycle, the price that was most accepted by traders in terms of this five year look back is this 1570 level, which is the equality objective so I'm looking for price to pull back into that, and then we'll see if by step back in, and we could be looking for a move to the outside. DAX sitting right at that trend line that we're talking about last week we probe underneath it, but we're seeing some buyers try to step back in here, obviously we're seeing some strength in terms of the US equity markets and that's leading the DAX here but the DAX can get back through the 13,430 area, I still see the potential that we get a squeeze up into trend line resistance 14397. Now importantly, if we close on a weekly basis below this trend line so if we close at or below the current lows for the DAX, that's going to set up another downside objective a technical objective versus the swing structure here, which would give us a downside objective of 11,210. Also coincides with the 61.8% retracement of the entire post COVID crash so if we really want to pay attention to how we close this week on the DAX, but if we get back through that 13,450 area, I'm going to be long again I was long earlier in the week but I got taken out on trading stops. So I'm still bullish but we need the confirmation, want to see a pose back through that level to really get interested on the upside. Moving to the Nikkei similar setup to the DAX really, but looking a little bit stronger here on the daily now, let me just move this for you guys so I can give you the level. So I'm going to be longer than Nikkei on any move back through 26,600. And if that sets up, and we get that we're consolidating in the upper range, the daily volume was average price is bullish. So we are looking for a move through 26,600. We've got the high volume there 27,755 as the first objective, and then we have range resistance coming at 28,410. So watch for that move through 26,600 as an opportunity to engage on the long side, those upside objectives in mind moving to the currencies. So I'm going to be shorting the dollar index, short the dollar index from the 105 30s, which I discussed last week. However, we're not getting the follow through that I've anticipated at this stage, and this is now starting to look like bullish consolidation here so if we do consolidate. Let me just draw in the triangle pattern here. So we're currently in this triangle pattern. And if we get a break through there on a closing basis, then that's going to set up the test for those of you who join me most weeks. You'll know that I'm actually looking for the dollar index to test the 106 level. That's, that would be a minimum upside objective versus the way for consolidation here on the weekly chart. And it is also the yearly R3 pivot at 106 39. So any move into that area, as long as we maintain bearish momentum divergence on both the weekly and the daytime friends here. I'm going to be watching for bearish reversal patterns there to engage on the short side. And certainly I'll be thinking about a move back down to test the 103 50s as the as the first downside objective. At this stage, we really need to take out this trend line this internal trend line to get excited about the downside like I say I've got a risk free short in play from the 105 30s. But I'm starting to the momentum is starting to fade here, and it's starting to potentially fade about spike into that 106 to 106 30 area and that is going to be absolutely key for me incoming sessions as an opportunity to to fade Donna strength. And obviously as well from a macro perspective, markets are pretty well priced now in terms of the fed rate hike so that premium is slowly coming out of the dollar. And so I'm just just waiting to see if we can get that part of the 106 to 106 30s euro weakening up again couldn't get through that trend line resistance and 106 50s. Now is that if that dollar is going to go to the 106 the euro is going to trade down here minimum downside objective is a 102 20 test for the euro dollar. At this stage can't get interested on the long side until we take out the trend internal trend channel resistance here on a closing basis through 106 50s sterling. So this one running long position from last week and show you what we were looking at. So we got the test, the long awaited test of the 78.6% retracement of the post COVID advance into that 120 40s we tested the yearly S3 pivot to the tip, really, and then saw a really nice outside reversal. So we saw a reversal from on a weekly scale. And then we got this fight the fight and look back, headed in the right direction in terms of the daily chart, but we just are not seeing any follow through at the moment so the next area of interest sterling is going to be a move that trades ABC here into the 121 10 now, if we get into this area, and we get a bullish reversal pattern. And I'm going to be looking to play a long position in sterling and see if we can get a move up into the trend channel resistance there 124 40s. But at this stage, if we don't, if we can't hold that, that equality objective, then the picture doesn't look so great for sterling I'd be anticipating that we roll over and test into this wedge support here just below the 118 handle. So, so that's going to be a key area to watch. Obviously that will coincide with the euro, making new lows and the dollar index making new highs. So we'll see how that develops. Dolly and this is the, the other short I've got running at the moment. Faded into I'll show you the setup here. I was looking at 136 15 is my entry I got 136 18 on a bit of a slippage. So what I'm looking for now really is the dollar yen to roll over here. Again, we really want to see the dollar weekend as well here but with that as I took as I was talking about that loss of momentum, really a dollar downside is a bit of a concern here, and may mean that we have to make another new high in terms of the dollar before we roll over but once I've got the short running it's risk free now running about 60 cents bits in profit. The target for me is this ascending trend line support from these prior highs here in 131 40s. If we get through there, if buyers don't pick it up there, then we look for a test of the base here back into the 126 50s on the downside. However, if in line with the dollar index making that new push to 106, we could see the dollar yen up into the 138 handle. And again, if I get, if we get the confirmation from the dollar index we see that bearish reversal pattern we have momentum divergence, and I'll also be looking at new shorts in the dollar yen up into those levels at 137 50 138. But the weakness that we're seeing in the dollar yet at the moment is is part in part being driven by weakness we're seeing in terms of 10 year yields. So we were targeting a test of three, three, sorry, 3.43%. And we got that test we've got a bearish rejection on the weekly time frame. And so we've actually got a potential double topping play here. Now if these yields start to roll over if we can take out the trend line support here, that will add weight to the dollar, and it will add weight to the dollar yen so those trades could work if these yields really starts to roll over. But we're going to need to take out this trend line supports. So back through 3% really on the downside to add to add weight to those, to those other trades. This one has potential as well with it with a double top in a very clear, and we've got momentum divergence in play. So I'm looking for a close through daily projected range support 141 90s to short your yen and initial target is going to be this 139 29 on the downside we're getting a nice bearish reversal outside reversal pattern on the daily timeframe and note that the candle is red because of that fire that the volume wasted average price on a five day look back. Here's it's trading below that so that adds weight to the downside in your yen. Let's look at the Aussie and similar setup. Well, the Aussie and actually looks weaker beats being weighed by the Aussie but you can see up here we tested the yearly R3. We hit it the first time we got rejected try traded through it but closed back below it. So I'm watching this is potentially going to be a weekly outside reversal now in terms of the Oz again. We can get through this trend line support here so any close through 92 80s that would be a confirmation for me on the downside initial target is the quality objective at 1997 and below there we have this monthly projected range support and the ascending trend line support at 90 30 so there's some decent downside targets play for and it would be ideal to see that weekly candle close red. So again on that five period look back, suggesting further weakness in terms of the Aussie and lovely double top pattern there and plenty of momentum divergence to encourage the downside. Let's move into the commodity pairs here. So this one, we were looking for a pullback into the, the high volume load on the four hour chart didn't get that we've since accelerated to the outside. And so the dollar CAD now has a date with destiny, and that level is 13204 so that's an increase in the projected versus this swing structure. And ideally what we want to see is the dolly dollar CAD trade that 132 when the dollar index is above 106. And again, if the dollar index rolls over it'll take the dollar CAD with it. So I'm going to be paying very close attention to how we trade in this area as an opportunity to work to fade dollar strength. So the Aussie is trying to defend these loads here monthly projected range support at the 6840 so any close through their targets the equality objective of 6640. This is the equal legs objective here for that correction to complete. And again, so if the dollar if the dollar CAD is trading 132 we expect the Aussie to be trading at the 6640s. I mean, if we can get these bullish reversal signals on the daily timeframe I'll certainly pay most interest to, as long as we maintain some momentum divergence, I see an opportunity to fade that dollar strength and get in on the long side. Kiwi dollar, similar setup in terms of the, the weakness here, we were looking for an equality objective, once this chart updates with me. 6120s as the, sorry, 6120s as the downside objective. So any, any break of this triangle that we're currently trading in so any close through the triangle support and through month and well we've already tested monthly projected range support we've got a bit of dead cat bounce there so any close back through triangle support here we target a test of 6120s and again thinking about the dollar index testing that above that 106 level as we trade into that area. So we're looking to see if we can see any dollar weakness emerging. Let's move to gold wrap up here with these commodities and the cryptos. So gold, any, any, if we can get a close through 1815. I know sorry, I'm sorry if we can get a close through the 1800 level, we are looking for the goal to test its equality objective versus the 27, 2077 swing high gives a 1663 on the downside. So I'm going to be looking to be short if we can take out the 1800 level, or we have a corrective pattern developing here, which could see us test the 1900 level first before the next leg to the downside. So if we can get bullish reversal patterns into that 1814 level, there's an opportunity there to play for the C leg of this corrective cycle to get us up into that 1900 level. Let's take a look at Bitcoin and ether to wrap things up here. So if these something to factor here if these equity indexes are going to make the corrective moves that I anticipated or talked about the start of this session, that should lead to some near term corrective action in terms of Bitcoin and ether. I'd be looking at any move in Bitcoin into the 26,000 area and the descending trend of resistance as an opportunity to engage on the short side, and we have a downside equality objective for Bitcoin at 12,460. And again, if we if we trade into that area and we've got that dollar above 106, you can see how the intermarket dynamics could all sync up there for a more meaningful shift in terms of the typical dollar strength regime that we've been in. And we can see these cryptos get a decent balance of the minimum wrap up here with ether. So the target for ether on the downside is 851 versus the swing high here at eight, sorry, 3558. Again, we that's we want to see that test coincide with the dollar trading above 106 but from there I'd be watching for bullish reversal patterns. So we've technically completed this major corrective move to engage on the long side, and certainly would think about a move back up to fill the gap there at 1660 1670 level as the first target on the upside. Actually it's more than that because it was 1700 that we traded on the short side. So that's what I've been looking for as a minimum upside objective for the first leg of the loads. Okay, so that's that wraps up the charts that I'm looking at. Hopefully you can see or get a sense of where I'm coming from I'm looking for a correction in these equity indexes. I'm looking for the dollar to trade up into that 106 Euro 102 sterling back down into the potentially 120 118 area dollar yen 137 138. And then we could see that Aussie trade to its equality objective dollar CAD 132 and then I'd be looking to fade that dollar strength if if we get the confirmation the setup. Okay, so with that said, are there any questions. Equally if you don't have a question, we type an N in the chat box that's just as useful. I put a couple of links in the into the chat. So I'm looking for the futures group for those interested in trading the getting my daily S&P 500 e mini futures contract planned for for the New York cash trading session. I also put in the tick mill trading view account where you can follow my daily setup videos. WTI. Okay, let me look. I actually did cover this in one of the trading videos this week. So on the four hour time frame, we're trading in this descending trend channel we have tested the equality objective. So, in terms of thinking about a corrective pattern I'm always thinking initially have a three way corrective move with the quality objective 103 50s for me to get bullish on crew now we need to close above 107 30s. So if we do, then this correction may be done and we may be looking again at a retest of the prior cycle highs and then onto new highs. However, we have taken out the daily trend line support here on a closing basis. So any loss now of this support zone at the 101 level, I will be thinking about it being in on the short side, because we have an equality objective versus this swing structure here we tested in 78.6% of the trade back through to the downside and sellers have stepped in. So if we take out these current lows, I want to be sure, looking for a move down to the 86 level in terms of crude oil. Does that make sense Richard or the alternative scenarios and trade back through 107 30s initial move to test the high volume known 110 and then we'll see if we can get a squeeze going to the upside. Good stuff. You're very welcome. Yes, if there aren't any other questions, I'm going to wrap this session up here. Let's see join me in the Facebook group and follow along my daily trade ideas on the trading view accounts. And as always traders plan the trade trade the plan and most importantly, manage your risk until next week. Thanks very much.