 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com nightly wrap up show. Hope everybody is having a good day. So let's kind of rewind 2020. If you didn't think it could get more bizarre. Let's just kind of run it down. We've got 33 million people filing for unemployment. We have the coronavirus that literally has put a standstill on the global economy. Literally closing everything down. We've had UFOs. We've had murder hornets. And if things can't get crazier. Okay, now we are having a development story. If you live on the northeast of the United States, we are potentially having this is quote unquote from NBC News. We are potentially historically looking for a snowstorm headed to the northeast that 75 million people will wake up for potentially freezing weather. Okay, freezing weather that was colder than Christmas Eve. We are in May. Absolutely incredible. The world is coming to an end. This is it. All jokes aside, if you had told me all that where we would be 1% rise today on the NASDAQ 100 puts us into positive territory for the year. Again, this year, this life, there's no way impossible. It could go crazy. It could get crazier. It's going to get crazier because again, we are again in the absolute greatest reality show. That's unfortunately not on television. So let's talk about the tape today. So my number one idea yesterday. Last night, this is again, this is what we talk about having an opinion. My number one idea last night was Boeing, right? I thought this was going to be the absolute smoothest trade today, right? We talked about that 120 level macro, the way closed yesterday couldn't rally. So puts coming in for the 120s, the 115, the 105 or all near term expiration. And the greatest part about this trade was that I was wrong in the bias, right? But the point is being wrong theoretically and being wrong financially are two different things. And that's why I always tell the traders, I keep on reminding them to put this sticky pad, right? Put it right on the sticky pad and basically say, do not anticipate the trade. Don't do it. Okay. It might look real bad. It might act real bad. It gives you all the signs that it's going to be bad. And until it confirms folks. And again, I used to make the mistake years and years and years. And I think a lot of traders do exactly the same thing. Your opinion could be wrong. We say this every single day. I'm wrong every single day. The most important part is don't be wrong financially. Okay. Have an opinion. Have your research. Wait for the confirmation. If it comes, again, strike with extreme prejudice. Okay. If it doesn't, leave it alone. Okay. You will never have an opinion. You will never have an opinion without confirmation that's going to work out. The biggest losses you're always going to take, and we constantly remind traders of this, the biggest losses you're always going to take are the trades that you jump in in anticipation. Jump into cheat. Okay. Try to get it sneak into better price. And 90% of the time you will lose money. So here is a perfect example, a trade that I would have taken 10 years ago, 15 years ago, that I would have gotten completely destroyed. Because my opinion, my reality would have been completely the difference of the actual realities in hand. But again, as we get older, we get smarter, we learn from our mistakes, we don't repeat them. And the moral of the story is again, wait for confirmation. We're dumb. We're idiots. Our opinions don't matter. Price action is all it matters. And again, if you cheated today on Boeing, lights out. Here's what I like about today's session. I like the fact that beta, for the most part, sat quiet today. And what's good about that is when you have a really aggressive market, and the market leaders putting in very, very aggressive moves, the one purest concept that a lot of traders don't understand is they need a rest. And resting doesn't mean they need to go down. Resting means they're just kind of tired from going up. And when you look at the market today, and you saw a 1% move on the comp, and that's great. And you had a lot of really big moves. Tullo, one of the biggest moves that I've seen in a long, long time, really, really aggressive move here on Tullo. Zoom continues to do well. We'll talk about the pivot in Zoom. But what I liked about today's session was the bulls didn't force the issues with a lot of names that had big runs. So for example, I loved Amazon yesterday, right? We talked about Amazon. We talked about Tesla. We talked about Netflix, right? Amazon today didn't set the world on fire, okay? But what it did do was close above the highest level of supply, right? The highest level of supply. And again, that might not be the most sexiest thing in the world. Maybe you didn't get a great trade in it today, because for the most part it was playing possum, like a lot of names today, kind of sitting on the bottom side of the rising channel for most of the day, and it finally popped up towards the end of the day, confirming not only the five, the 10-day moving average, you can see how much airspace. Okay? When you look at Netflix today, again, although it didn't really participate, okay? You can make a point of the stock was up in the day. Again, it wasn't tradeable today. But what it did do, again, for the point of resting, structural rest, it held the bottom, again, same thing as Amazon, held the bottom rising support, and again, it closed on the daily chart above the highest level of supply, okay? All it needs to do is confirm this channel here. Tesla as well. Although Tesla did not break and reclaim the $800 number, look what it keeps on doing. If you look at the rising support, okay? If you look at the rising support, it's structurally held, again, building, right? You can see these are all higher lows, right? Low, higher low, and it keeps on doing that. So even though today there wasn't this really aggressive gangster, pound everything, you know, pound the bears into oblivion type of rally, it was an incredibly important day, because, again, structurally they maintained the momentum is still intact, and it's a good rest area. Again, even if you look at stocks like Facebook, right? Facebook did exactly the same thing. Very, very tight channel, especially look at the 60 minute, very, very tight channel. Again, nothing crazy to talk about, but it did its job. Same thing with Apple, right? Same thing with Apple. Again, very, very tight channel. It was up on the day, but again, didn't really run. So the moral of the story is I think a lot of traders today kind of saw the same thing that I saw. The action kind of died. Again, if you trade beta, and that's pretty much what I do, if you trade beta, the window of aggression kind of closed around 10, 30, 11 o'clock. I think my last trade was literally around 10, 30, and the most important part, right? The most important part of the day was that, again, we didn't burn mental equity, okay? I didn't start trading random names that were up, you know, 900% just because of the sake of trading. You know, 10, 15 years ago, I would have burned myself out of trading these random stocks and mentally I would have been tired and I probably wouldn't have got anywhere. As you get deeper and deeper and longer and longer into the game, you realize that not only is a res day good for stocks, a res day is good for yourself. So if your names are not participating or at least participating in a very, very contraction sort of area, it's basically a lesson for you to kind of, you know what? Mirror it with the action. You know, if they're strong, you're strong. If they're passive, you're passive. Again, you're not going to will Tesla to get in your direction. You're not going to will Netflix to get to the direction. But if you trade sloppy and you try to get cute, and I said this kind of as they started fading a little bit towards after 11 o'clock, a lot of people turn around and say, well, let's short Netflix, let's short Tesla, let's short, you know, Amazon. And I tweeted this out. I said, just because these things are weak, it doesn't mean they're short. If anybody started shorting these stocks at any point after 11 o'clock, they got killed. And I kept on saying this over and over in the live webinar. Again, you know, as Netflix was coming in, as Amazon was coming in, I said, would you rather be long the stock or short the stock at this price? And if you look at the prices three, four hours later, they're much higher. Again, confirming that you don't short stocks because they're weak. You short stocks because they're confirming ranges. And today was a perfect example, right? My number one play on Boeing, which I was theoretically wrong. And again, maybe one day it does confirm back to the 120 level. But again, it's not going to cost me money from being wrong. It's not going to cost me money to have an opinion. What it is going to do is cost me money if you're trading irresponsibly out of control without a tangible process. But more important, you're trading anticipation instead of trading confirmation. That's going to kill you every other way. If you look at the cues today, I mean, very good structural action. Again, we're still melting up to this 2350 area. Again, nothing makes sense. Okay, financially, the countries, the world is still pretty much on lockdown. You know, more or less, I think there's early plans to kind of get the economy going and start opening up more states. Okay, maybe, you know, again, it all depends on your thought process behind that. If you're for it, you're for it, if you're against it, you're against it. Again, I'm going to save my opinions for another time. But what I like about the companies that reported earnings today, the ones that you knew were going to have bad earnings, they didn't go down. So for example, Uber, who reported a lousy quarter. I mean, let's be honest, Uber reported a terrible, terrible quarter. But the CEO came out and said, hey, rider volume is increasing. Must be the new math, because again, as far as I understand, everybody's been quarantined. But okay, but that's the whole point. They had a crappy quarter and it's kind of falling in line of what we've been talking about now for a long time. Companies are getting, right? Companies are getting a mulligan. They're getting a pass for the corona quarter. Even a stock, for example, like G-Pro. Okay, what was the last time somebody bought a G-Pro? Fitbit, G-Pro, all this crap. Okay, but again, lousy quarter is barely getting anywhere. But again, they're getting a pass. The stocks that are feeling the effect are the stocks that are really had big runs, right? So Roku's getting sold off after the close. It's getting sold off pretty aggressively. But look at the run Roku had, right? Look at the run that Roku had. We talk about from $58 to $140. The fact that the stock is down to $125 after hours. Again, is this really a win for the bulls? Or do they have a monster-monster run? Like TTD, again, same thing. TTD had a big, big run. Look at it from TTD from the Mark's Lows of $136, right? $136 went to $327. You're talking about the stock more than doubling, okay? So the fact that the stock is down at the $300 means absolutely nothing. So structurally, I like what we're seeing. I like the idea that the market is still giving passes to crappy earnings, the corona crappy quarters. And I like the idea that stocks that are putting up these really, really big runs are being materialistically resting on days that they need to rest. And again, as much as I want Tesla to put up that $25 candle, okay? The market doesn't care that I want it. The market's going to do it when it's going to finally do it. So a lot of traders, again, just settle down, relax. Take the trade every single day like a complete lunatic. Whatever comes to you, comes to you. Take advantage of it. Understand principles of market structure, organic order flow. And the most important thing is, again, trade when there is value, not because the market's open. So again, all the value today came literally at the open. The first hour there was value. There were some really, really good moves. And that's it, right? And that's it. So here was the first trade of the day, Tesla, right? 790, 791 needs to build. Again, 799 was the high from a couple of days ago. It needs to reclaim for a possible 820 place. So again, I got long Tesla again, right? Got long Tesla again off this area, right? Got long it again. And again, it only went up like five, six points. And again, I say that with tongue in cheek. Everybody understands five, six points on a move is still good. But the point is, again, it got rejected. You can see here, it got rejected right over here on this 797 level. It got rejected the previous day of that 798 level. So this 800 level is really, really big. But again, let your worst trade in the world be $2,345. I understand everybody's looking for that $40, $50 move on Tesla, whether we get it or not is a different story. But again, are you really, really upset with a $2,3 to $4 move? Right? Hard to be upset. You've got to be a grown-up about these things. But again, it is what it is. Space, again, we talked about space last night in the video. We talked about a non-beta name. Space we covered last night in the video, $19 needs to build. Big move, right? Big, big move on space. Here was the $19 break, right? $19 break and went all the way up to 21, just short of the last range here. So huge move. You got a $2 move on a $19 stock. Again, guys, congratulations for you guys who caught that as well. Amazon, I just love Amazon. I think it's just grinding higher. Maybe tomorrow it goes. Again, I still think it needs to reclaim $23.80. But again, this is the highest close in the whole formation. This is a monster move. So square gap down last night after the close. Had a big, big run, completely reversed course today. And we talked about this area. $69.85, $70 needs to build. And square just exploded, like really, really exploded. So here's the $69.80, right? $69.80, $70 area. Just absolutely went nuts to almost $77. Huge, huge move on square. Zoom was nuts as well. Zoom went absolutely bananas as well. $155.50, $156 needs to build, right? Here's Zoom. $155.50, $156 needs to build. And Zoom went to $162. Huge move on Zoom. And I think that was it. Okay, I think that was it. I kept on saying, take on the way, right? Take on the way beyond, you know, obviously never got down to the 117 level. Take on the way. Nice pop on space, right? Nice pop on space. Again, Tesla needs to rebuild that $800, which it never did. Square went nuts, right? Great job by Jerry here. $150, 15% on his options. And then I put a pivot just in case of the downside on Tesla, which obviously never got there as well. And that's it. And that's it. And there was a sneaky pivot later to the upside that never manifested. And Amazon late in the day, 2366 needs to build the spike. And Amazon, I'm telling you, Amazon is going to go. Amazon is going to go. It closed at 2367. This thing, I'm telling you, if the market doesn't sell off tomorrow and Amazon really confirms opening ranges, this damn thing is going to explode. The fact that it held this whole range and closed above the 10-day moving average. Again, I believe the 10-day moving average is the birth of the trade. First close above it. All it needs to do now is to confirm. And that's it, man. Again, it's not how many trades you do. It's how many trades you do properly. And today, literally, the first hour of the day was the value. And then everything else, good night, baby. Tomorrow, last day of the week, Fridays have been really, really aggressive for an incredibly long time. Maybe it has to do with option expiration, speculation, money, inflow, whatever the case may be. Tomorrow will not be boring. Guys, have a great night, everybody. God bless. And I'll see you tomorrow in the field. Congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading. 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