 Hello and welcome to news clip. We are in conversation today with D. Raghunandan of Delhi Science Forum and we will be discussing the Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan, especially in the context of recent reports that India is considering a rethink about the treaty, believably because of some apprehensions that India has about Pakistan's intentions in the aftermath of the strike on the Indian military camp in Uri. So, Raghunandan, welcome to news clip. Can you just take us briefly through the genesis of this Indus Waters Treaty and what implications it has for both Pakistan and India? Broadly speaking, the Indus Waters Treaty governs the utilization of the five rivers of the Punjab and the parent river the Indus and what the treaty does is to divide up these six rivers into the eastern rivers which largely flow through India and the western rivers which largely flow through Pakistan. And almost the entire Pakistani agriculture depends on the Indus and its distributaries. And when did this treaty actually get? This treaty was almost 50 years old and 1960. That is right. And it was a bilateral treaty between India and Pakistan, but using the good offices of the World Bank. So, how did the World Bank get involved? Well, partly it was because India and Pakistan knew that there were two states in conflict with each other and that a bilateral treaty just between the two of them may not survive the tests of time and tension between the two countries. So, the two countries asked the World Bank to come into the picture also because both the countries in their plans for utilization of these rivers were also going to the World Bank for concessional finance. So, World Bank seemed to be to both the countries an honest broker if you like. So, the education is now international. It is now international in the sense that you have got the World Bank sitting there and either of the parties can approach the World Bank if they feel that the terms of the. There is a tribunal. There is a tribunal and there is a formal treaty between these two countries and for a long time it has actually been held that despite the obvious tensions between these two countries which run through the year and has been running through for the past 50 years. In fact, ever since independence, but the Indus Water Treaty has survived armed conflicts, two wars, despite them the Indus Water Treaty has continued. Both the countries have abided by it and recently when Pakistan felt over the Kishen Ganga barrage that India was violating the treaty, it took India to the arbitration council which finally ruled in favor of India. So, both the countries so far have been going along with the terms of the treaty and have been behaving well. Is it correct to say that actually Pakistan is more dependent on the treaty being governed properly than India because as you were saying earlier that agriculture in Pakistan is largely dependent on these rivers. And the second and most important reason is that all these rivers flow through India before they enter Pakistan as far as the western rivers are concerned, but the eastern rivers are entirely flowing through India except for parts of their origin in Tibet. So, Pakistan is dependent on good behavior by India as a responsible upper riparian state for the waters flowing properly through into West Punjab. Currently, when India says that it is doing a rethink about the treaty, in functional terms what does it mean? What are India's options and what could it do? The first thing I think is that as part of the current mood in New Delhi where there is a lot of saber rattling going on, daily threats are being issued. This threat of abrogating the Indus Water Treaty is one of these threats being thrown. Now that is easier said than done and that is what I think very few people realize that it is not just India opting out of the treaty because this is a regular international treaty signed into law by both the countries. And even if India wants to abrogate the treaty, it has to go through a process of notifying that it wants to do it, bringing the World Bank into the picture. Automatically, this internationalizes the situation. It is not just a bilateral thing and even more it cannot be done unilaterally by India at the stroke of a pen. So, that is first thing that I think has to be realized about this. The next step that is being proposed by India is to fiddle with the allocation of waters of the western rivers which flow into Pakistan. Now, a lot of the noises being made, even the Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir yesterday said we are not able to utilize the waters of the western rivers properly. So, that is my question to you that on one hand you have apparently an intention to somehow retaliate against Pakistan. But apart from the legal issues, in terms of technically being able to do so, are there any real options immediately available to India that would prevent Pakistan from getting its share of waters according to the treaty? I think we should look at both these aspects. The question of abrogating the treaty first, if India says here are these western flowing rivers that go into Pakistan, we will stop the water going into Pakistan, which is the kind of threats being made that will starve West Punjab, will prevent the water and Pakistan will collapse. Technically, that is not feasible. You cannot stop a river flowing. That is what I am asking. What can India do? Exactly. So, if you want to stop the western flowing rivers, you have to create huge amount of infrastructure to be able to utilize those waters in India. Currently, if you stop the waters, you will flood part of your own land. Most of Jammu and Punjab. So, you will actually harm yourself by flooding just as you think you will harm the West Punjab by starving it of water. That is one. Second part is, there is a provision in the Indus Water Treaty as far as the western flowing rivers are concerned. The western flowing means the one that is going to Pakistan means that India can use up to 20 percent of the waters, mostly for non-consumptive purposes. That is to say, you can use it for hydropower and such things, whereas your use for irrigation should be minimized. Otherwise, you will just exhaust the waters. But up to 20 percent of the waters can be used even within the framework of the treaty. So, I think if at all India is considering. How are we doing that? We are not doing. I understand not anywhere near. No, nowhere near. And why India has never tapped these waters over the last 50 years is, I think, a million dollar question when large parts of Jammu are in need of irrigation water. But I think answers for this must be looked at in terms of the lack of development of the whole state of Jammu and Kashmir since independence. And it is not just in river waters that development has not taken place. Development has not taken place in railways, in infrastructure, in roads and so on. And this is one more area where India has not invested in the development of Jammu and Kashmir to the extent it should. So do you think this is an empty threat? The abrogation of the river waters treaty, I think, is an empty threat. So isn't it a bit curious that while within the country disputes between riparian states keep flaring up, but for 66, how much, about 56 years between India and Pakistan, we don't seem to have had that kind of a dispute. Precisely, my point is that this has been the strength of the Indus Water Treaty. Precisely because there is a codified arrangement between two countries which govern the utilization of these rivers. There is an arbitration body whatever you may think about it which sits there to which both can appeal and whose decisions are binding on both the parties. There is an institutional arrangement. Unfortunately within the country, India has so far not come to any solid institutional arrangements which guide interstate disputes on river waters. And that's why we are still floundering with it. So I would think in fact that we should be copying measures institutionalized in the Indus Water Treaty using those to govern domestic interstate relations governing river waters rather than talking of abrogating Indus Water Treaties which I think have stood the test of time. Thank you. Thank you Raghu for talking to us. We will be back on this click on more about this issue later. Thanks for being with us.