 seen on November 3rd, the effective feds fundraiser 0.08%. Welcome traders, it is 2pm Greenwich meantime and we're going to get started here with this week's live trade market analysis. If you can hear me and you can see my screen, could you type a Y in the chat box, please? A Y in the chat box if you can hear me and see my screen. Great, thank you. Okay, before we jump into today's presentation, a couple of things. Firstly, the risk disclaimer, obviously incredibly important and specific to today's presentation is that the views expressed by me are today are solely my own and not indicative of or representative of those held by Tickmail UK or Tickmail Europe limited. Secondly, if you have any questions as I go through the charts, if you can make a note of them, then I'll open up a brief Q&A at the end of the end of today's presentation and happy to answer any questions you've got about any of the setups that I discuss or if you want me to take a quick look at a chart that I haven't covered, I'm happy to do that also. So those of you who are here for the first time, brief introductions myself. After I graduated from King's College London, I joined a city PLC consulting firm. I ultimately left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found and exit a consulting startup which was focused on C-suite executive search for technology businesses. I essentially had a front row seat to the dot-com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the markets, sometimes quite literally overnight. I decided to explore my curiosity for markets as I had some capital to play with and time on my hands, I started day trading the S&P 500, or probably more appropriately day gambling. After some early beginners' luck, I racked up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case that beginners' luck ran out and as the market phase changed, I began to average down into losing positions. I basically gave back all my gains and ultimately experienced a significant six-figure financial hit. To say this was a gut wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement. I really had to stand back and figure out if it was going to be feasible for me to make a living from the markets. So I decided to get serious about trading and sort out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for a period of about 18 months to two years, it was a time during which I upped not just my technical gain in terms of researching, developing, extensively back and forward testing strategies that crucially suited my personality, all of which were underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. But most importantly during the period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental gain. And probably most importantly of all, I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal-orientated individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process-orientated. So what does that mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process-orientated and have a professional trading mindset and you understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities, you really lose the emotional investment and that hellish emotional rollercoaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned with the outcomes of individual trades or even a small string of trades. My focus is on the next 100 trades because I know if I focus on excellence and execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. Since 2013, I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service, delivering again annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multi-million dollar portfolio. Since 2010, I've also mentored hundreds of private traders of all the experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to reach consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my mentoring and fund management, I'm engaged in other market-orientated projects. I'm a resident market expert exclusively providing market and trade analysis to TICML. I provide an in-depth daily market outlet, breaking down the fundamental and technical drivers from the day ahead. I also provide daily technical trade setups for three to five markets that I'm tracking. You can see through the TICML blog here, this is the daily market outlet posted for today. I give an in-depth breakdown, also cover the FX options that are in play. I give a technical overview and then we look at the technical trade setup for most of the FX majors there, and that's released every day at the London Open. I'm actually a useful link for you guys if you're interested in following along with my trades. This is where I post the daily videos through TradingView, tracking setups that I'm watching in the market and trades that I'm managing or running. I'll post some links here into the chat. You can follow along, you can subscribe and get notifications for the trade setups. A few of those we're going to be covering today. I'm also now responsible for running TICML's rapidly growing E-mini strategy group. That's a Facebook private group where I provide a daily specific trade plan with updates with respect to the E-mini S&P 500. I've been running that since April and have delivered over 1,300 points of profit. We've also now opened up the TICML Telegram, TICML Futures Trading Telegram channel. You can see some updates from there. This week we've taken 41.5 points out of the market, 2.5 percent of upside. I also, as I say, post a daily trade plan which is in a video format. I live stream, let's see. There's one of those. There you can see the plan. I update levels and what I'm looking to trade for that day, the specific entry points. I reference the market internals that are required to confirm those trades. For any of you who want to join that channel, it's free to join. You just have to send through a request. I'll post that into the chat as well. That's basically a flavor of what I'm doing in terms of my background and what I'm currently involved in. What I want to do now is jump into the charts. Today we're going to focus on the four-hour charts. We're going to look at some imminent trading opportunities that I think will develop in the coming sessions. We're going to start with the E-mini S&P 500. I trade this instrument actively on a daily basis. I also position trade it as well, as I do with most of these equity indexes. What we're tracking here now is a third wave extension that's pretty clear here. What I'm looking for now with this E-mini S&P and certainly today I'm going to be looking to get long on any pullbacks. I'm looking for a test here of the 3.618 extension of the Wave 2. That's a common level at which the third wave will terminate. What we have also to want to see as we get into that area will be divergence between the psychic indicator here. If this is going to be our third wave target, we've also got the projected ascending trend line resistance, third touch of that there. We've also got daily projected range resistance as well coming in there. I'm looking for an extension up into this area, looking for prices to fade there, but importantly we want to see that momentum divergence maintained. Prices make the new high, but the psychic indicator doesn't make a new high. That's an important confirmation if we're going to look to fade this move. What I'm looking for is a three wave corrective move similar in scope and scale to the Wave 2 there. From our Wave 3 high wherever we get that, we'll be looking for that equality pullback, ideally back into test this 4580 area. Then from there, I'm going to be really looking for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side, looking for a fifth wave extension up into this 4728 area, which is the 161 extension of our major Wave 4 there. That's my target. I'd really like to see this correction play out over three day periods is the optimum for a corrective phase. Then we look to reengage on the long side and play the favorable seasonality into the back end of the year, targeting that 47, 38, 4730 area. That's the major ascending trend line resistance as well. That's going to be a pivotal test. NASDAQ have been running a significant long position in the NASDAQ. I posted the daily chart. We're a daily reversal from our equality objective here. When I talk about equality, what I'm talking about is equal legs. We have this leg here versus this leg here. You can see we tested perfectly into that area. Then we got the reversal and we again now we're in a third wave extension. What I'm looking for with the NASDAQ here is to trade into 16,260 area. Then I'm looking for again, importantly, want to see that divergence maintained here. We don't want the psych indicator to make a new high. We want that to be respected. As long as when we test this area, we don't have the psych indicator making a new high, then that sets up an opportunity to play the Wave 4 consolidation. Again, what we're talking about is equality versus Wave 2 at a minimum. Then we'll be looking for that fifth wave extension to play on the long side, again, into the back end of this year. Doubt. I'm sitting at trendline resistance here. Again, similar scenario. It's not that the price pattern isn't quite as clean as it is in the E-minus and NASDAQ, but ideally we get something like this now. Then we break and we get a fourth wave pulled back equal again to this potential Wave 2 here. Then what we're always looking for in terms of the Wave 5 is equal at a minimum to the Wave 1. Are we thinking about something like this? Pull back and get that Wave 4 to complete into 35,300 area. Then we're going to be looking for bullish reversal patterns to target a fifth wave extension into the close of the year. Russell, this is one that I shared on the trading view platform. This is broken nicely now. What we're looking for here is the first pullback really now. I'll be thinking in terms of, we've got one, two, three, four, five, six, seven. We should see one more high here is what I'm thinking. We've got one, two, three. Something like this would be ideal to get up into the trend channel resistance zone. Then from there we just will be watching for a correction equal in scope and scale to that move. Then we can start to think about the next leg to the upside and certainly we want to think about something around there. This is the scenario we're watching for now in the Russell. That's a 2000 index. We want to see a trade-up into this trend channel resistance. We want to see divergence play out and then a corrected move that comes somewhere back into the 2370s area. Then we look for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side, thinking somewhere about a 2500 test on the upside. The DAX, very bullish, broken out, running long positions in this. We're looking for one, two, three, four, five, six. We've got the seventh swing here. Then we're looking for eight and then nine. Nine swings being an impulsive bullish move. Watching for the DAX to test into 16,130 area and we have already broke out. We've got the equality there in terms of the momentum divergence. Looking for momentum to start to roll over here. As we get that test, we look for bearish reversal patterns to set short positions and initially we'll be thinking about equality in terms of that pullback into this trend channel support. Third test, watch for bullish reversal patterns, long positions and then we're up again to the upside looking at that trend channel as a minimum upside objective coming in 16,400 area. The 10-year notes here have a nice five-way sequence developing. 10-year notes, obviously, as they advance in price, the yield of the 10-year treasury in the US declines and when the treasuries themselves decline, the yield goes up. We're looking for, what I'm looking for here is an equality objective. So we have versus this swing structure here, I'm looking for a test of 131.14, a weekly range resistance, got some prior lows, prior highs here. So bearish reversal patterns there, set up a trade on the short side and we measure from our wave one here into our potential wave four high. That gives us a target then down at 129.11 and that would see the 10-year yields rising into the back end of the year. So let me just draw that in for you. So we're looking at this equal-legs objective, play out, hit, bearish reversal patterns, short positions, targeting a move down into that 129 area and that would obviously see the 10-year yield rise as well. Dollar index is fighting to break this trend line resistance here and if we get a close through there then we look for one more high in terms of the dollar index before we see it roll over more meaningfully. It could be here that if we hold the resistance in this type of in the range that we're trading at the moment then price might do a double correction here so we could see prices back down into the support zone again. So we're thinking about something like this for the dollar index hold and then we look for that test up into the 96 area to the upside. At this stage I've only been getting bearish on the dollar on a close back through this trend line support which is the channel that's just been trading. It's really grinding out its slow going but we look for or what I'm ultimately looking for is I'm looking for about one more high to fade and then I think the dollar down trend can keep back in. Crude oil's got an interesting pattern here. We've held the equal-legs pretty much again to the tip so if we can get a close now through the descending trend line resistance 84-29 there then we're looking for a fifth wave extension and I'll give you a target on that based on this potential wave four cycle here. So at a minimum we're looking for 87 and we could be trading as high as 88-90 which is one six one extension. The wave fives normally terminate in this area the one six one extension one two seven extension and if we think or if we measure then our potential wave one I'm going to call this wave one and we overlay versus our low here so you can see we've got an equality objective wave fifth wave being equal to wave one and we've got one two seven extension so 87-30s are the next upside target on a close through 84-30 in terms of crude oil. Bitcoin looking still bullish and let's see have we met the minimum objective for the correction here? No we haven't so we could be doing a double correction so whilst we hold resistance there at just about 64,000 what I'd like to see would be this scenario play out so we go down into here and then wave four completes and we're off again to the upside got a daily target on Bitcoin to the upside of 75,000 so this could be a really nice entry point to to get in on that on that trade so watch actually let's just see where that trend line comes in as well because that would also be an opportunity so if we're going to close through the trend line and through this potential x3 w wave high 74 let's say 74 900 then again that could that would suggest that this correction is complete and we're off again to the upside so just some key levels to keep in mind there for those looking to get in on Bitcoin theory and very bullish new highs and we look for this cycle to continue so any callbacks at this stage that that find support into the trend line are to be bought and we've got a 5200 daily target I think from memory on Ethereum let's just have a quick look on that so the target is 5124 on that on that break that we looked at on the daily time frame a couple of weeks ago. Dolly Yen still bullish we can potentially pull back here a bit but ultimately what I'm looking for is a break of this this bull flag now through 14-33 and we have an upside objective just shy of 116 so a couple of hundred bits to play for there on the upside in terms of Dolly Yen once we get through that x wave high alternatively we could roll we could come a bit deeper back into the midpoint before we get that extension but certainly I'm looking on the long side in terms of Dolly Yen. Swissy sitting right on a daily trend line support here and we'll see so yeah we tested this big daily trend line support got an initial reaction yet to flip bullish here but any close back through the 92 handle we can start to think about testing the ascending trend line resistance itself at 94 alternatively we could get an inverse head and shoulder scenario develop here where trade just through then get a pull back here so we have left shoulder, head, right shoulder and that also would be a nice opportunity to get in and see if the Swissy can defend the daily trend line support and extend that into the target zone euro want to be I'm holding a short position from last week on that daily reversal and we've corrected during the early part of this week I'm now looking for a break of this trend line and the target on the euro let me just flip to the daily to give you that so I've got a target here on the euro at 114 because what I'm looking for so we'll see if we can break this consolidation alternatively again similar to the dollar index we could be doing double correction here and that would be moderately frustrating but nonetheless pattern remains the same so we have an equal lead to move like so and then we get the sell-off but let's see if we can get a close through these this trend trend line support that's been in place sites rolling over and the RSI's discussing the negatively pollinated so looking for 142 and 12 in the euro euro yen still like this for one more test here 13119 is the area I'm watching but multiple equal legs completing there and just to have 50% retracement watch a bullish reversal patterns there through that trend line resistance 132 forward to be an end we can start to think about 134 60 on the upside euro sterling nice nice extension here today obviously driven by the BOE disappointing markets watch 85 64 as potential resistance there equal legs versus this kind of low euro Aussie this is what I'm watching we've got a symmetry swing objective so when it's talking about symmetry swing I'm talking about that wave to price scale overlaid versus our potential wave three so watching for bearish reverse patterns 156 70 and then I'm looking for a fifth wave extension to the downside equal to the wave one my wave four would actually put us down into the 151 60 area that's your time euro Kiwi this one was sitting on that weekly trend line it pierced through it but now it's starting it was potentially putting in an inverse head and shoulders here I'm watching this on any breakthrough 163 20 certainly even think about 164 164 60s which is the symmetry swing objective versus this swing here so let me just throw that in so you can see what I'm talking about so we have that and then if you overlay that so that's what we'll be thinking about move into that area and then we'll see if sellers show up again for another leg to the downside but looking looking at a counter trend along here in the euro Kiwi sterling hammered by the Bank of England today and I'm looking for something to get down into the 133 area and complete its major equal leg so if I zoom out here you can see we have an A B and a C a quality objective down to 133 17 this stage to evaluate that you need to close back through this trend line resistance then you can start think about test up into the 138 that's bearish for now sterling Aussie I'm looking for equal legs here versus this current low but descending pitchfork resistance coming in so 184 70 would be an opportunity to re-engage on the short side and then we think about five equals one which would put us down into 179 handle that's one that's certainly on the radar radar sorry sterling yen is testing pivotal test of support here if we close back through this 154 which is the 161 extension of this current move then we'll be thinking about trend line resistance test so we've got this high volume node 152 so watching didn't get so quite well the there was it did signal here on the hold of the 132 there but if you're in that trade and you're appearing to the rules then you will be risk-free on the 50% of the treatment there of the potential Y legs so this is we'll see if sterling can catch a bid here sterling yen or otherwise we start to think about a break 3154 for that 152 sterling Swiss also sitting on that major trend line resistance on the daily that's I posted that to trading views you can have a look at that in your own time but potential five waves completing there now so we want to see a recovery back through the trend line resistance to get constructed on the potential for sterling Swiss to have completed let me just jump to the data you can see it clearly so that's what I'm thinking about here if we get it closed back above that trend line we could be in for a for a decent move to the upside equally close below the trend line and then we'll be thinking more about short strategies for sterling Swiss right through the Aussie looking for the Aussie to roll out correct basically here back into this 73 area and then we can start thinking about testing the trend line Aussie yen so I'm looking for the Aussie yen here now to correct this is our wave three high then we want to think about a wave four like so so if this is wave three wave four we'll be buying opportunity to get a trend line test up at 87 so keeping an eye on Aussie yen Kiwi that's going nowhere fast let's go let's actually jump back to the foreign sea Kiwi yen is a better setup yeah so we've got this wave wave four consolidation in play ideally what we get now is a test here so we have a b and we have c quality objectives so any move back through now these 8190 area should just take out the trend line resistance and trade up for a wave five extension to the upside and target for that is a minimum 8290 up to 8350 last but not least this is the the dollar ram trade that we've been running and I'm looking now for a correction in this could see this type of move now find buyers here and then we can think about this run back through the highs and ultimately we look up for a move into the 16 handle or just shy of 16 terms of the dollar ram so that's the whistle stop tour of the setups that I'm watching and anticipate to develop in the coming sessions essentially looking for a bit of a correction here in terms of the indices and then we're looking to get in on the long side to play for that so that year-end bump and we are short-term looking for one more high in the dollar index and then looking for that to roll over so that obviously that will feed into the the effects majors a euro sterling etc in the also looking for corrections there before we we look to the next leg to the other side with that said are there any questions equally if you don't have a question if you type an n in the chat box that's helpful as I know we're all on the same page and we can wrap the session up here okay I shall take the silence as as that there aren't any questions feel free to join me in the tick mill futures facebook group follow the daily trade setups through the trading view link just repost those again and for those who have a tick mill funded account you can join me in the telegram group for real-time updates okay thanks very much for your time I hope you found this helpful and I'll catch you all again sometime next week