 Hello and welcome to NewsClick. Today we have with us Bappa Sinha and we are going to discuss the elections this time in the five states, particularly three North Indian states, what's called the Hindi Heartland and see how the BJP has fared amongst the urban voters this time. BJP has always held a strong position in North India amongst the urban voters. Has it changed this time or not? This is something that we are going to discuss. We have Bappa with us who has done all these maps and this data analytics that you can see on the NewsClick website and what we are going to see here as well. But let us take for instance Rajasthan. We have had a shift from the 2014 to this election from 2013 also but a less pronounced swing than from the 2014. Now, while the voters have moved away from the 2014 votes that the BJP had secured a very large number of the urban as well as rural votes. Do you see a difference in the shift amongst the urban voters this time as distinct from the total shift in the state? Yeah, so when analyzing the maps that's a fairly interesting observation we found and this is a pattern which is across all states. Across the three states? Across the three states. Across the Hindi Heartland states. Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh. So what is interesting is that while BJP has seen the Modi wave is gone. So the spike in BJP vote share between 2013 and 2014 elections that has completely been taken out. So for example in Rajasthan when you compare with 2013, sorry when you are comparing with 2014 Rajasthan has the overall state had seen a BJP slide by 17%. BJP's vote share slid by 17% as compared to 2014. But if you look at the urban areas only what we are seeing is the shift is even more significant. Urban areas which are how many? So there are about 19 constituencies which we are considering as urban areas which is primarily the Jaipur area, Bikaner and this is the Jodhpur area. So in these constituencies the shift is BJP's vote share has dropped by 22% as opposed to the statewide drop of about 17%. In the map these areas are very small because specially they are dense urban population and therefore don't have covered too much area. That's why it's not so visible in the map but you are basically saying there are 19 seats in these urban areas. And in that the vote share has instead of 17% overall shift we have how much? 25%. The vote share has dropped by 22%. So 5% additional shift from the average and if you take the rural shift and compare it to the urban. So if you look at the rural shift there it's the rural shift is about 15%. So it's less than the statewide average. So the statewide average has been increased because of the shift in the urban and the semi-urban areas. So let's rephrase this so the shift is 15% in rural areas there is a perceptible shift but in urban areas the shift is even more. That there is a 7% additional shift from the rural areas in the urban areas and the semi-urban areas which are also fairly large in number of seats. The semi-urban areas they are mirroring what we are seeing in the urban areas. So the semi-urban areas have a shift of about 21%. So the urban areas are 22% semi-urban areas about 21%. So if you combine the urban semi-urban areas BJP is losing about 21 to 22% of the vote share. Now of course what it is due to we don't know but it's quite conceivably due to the fact that the demonetization the GST has affected them adversely. Because GST has also the additional problem is a lot of record keeping which obviously the small petty traders are not used to. And the petty trading community as we know used to be once upon it at the backbone of the BJP. And third of course the online retail platforms which have come Amazon and Flipkart has also affected the petty urban traders. They will quite worried of this kind of shall we say online retail competing with them. So all of this could have combined to see an urban shift. And like the youth which have been enthused by Modi's promises in 2014. So what we are seeing is fairly like in 2014 in Rajasthan 67% of the urban voters voted for BJP. That's huge 67% as opposed to Congress's 28%. So there is a there was a almost a what about a 40% gap between Congress and BJP. For two thirds of the urban population voted for BJP one third voted for the Congress. Now the gap is 45 to 41 45% to BJP. So the gap is it's almost at par. This is very virtually similar kind of figures. 45% does not in this sense between two third and one third to almost half and half is a significantly different set of figures. So what you are saying is not this is not explained by the urban traders alone. But also by the youth who had been enthused by the promise of jobs and development which has not been which has not been shown on the ground. Because as we see the employment figures have been disciplined in this period. Industrialization has not taken place. So shall we say the selling pakoras will not fill the ambition or not fulfill the ambitions or the aspirations of the youth today. So therefore self employment on these terms is not something which is at least getting votes for the BJP. If we turn to for instance Madhya Pradesh do you see a similar phenomenon because Madhya Pradesh has been a also a close election. Rajasthan also has been a close election. The percentage of votes between the Congress and the BJP have been very very close. It's not that you know the figures indicate the seat figures because BJP is I think both of them have gone between 41 and 42% in Rajasthan. So in terms of vote share Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh are identical elections where in Rajasthan both of them have got 39%. In Madhya Pradesh both of them have got 41%. The seat distribution is different in Rajasthan BJP Congress is comfortably ahead while in Madhya Pradesh they are neck and neck. But in terms of votes they are identical and the swings are also very similar. In Madhya Pradesh the state as a whole from 2014 BJP is losing 14% votes. But if we look at the urban areas look at the just the urban areas actually in MP it's the urban swing is almost the same as the overall swing. The Rajasthan has a more pronounced urban swing against the BJP while in MP it's more evenly spread out. But what is stark is that similar to Rajasthan in 2014 BJP got 60% of the urban votes as opposed to Congress getting about 30% of the votes. So again 2 is to 1 ratio that has now shrunk to again a 4% gap 47% to BJP about 43.5% to Congress. Interesting they are still ahead but only marginally now from the Congress. So unlike its earlier much stronger performance in urban areas that swing towards the BJP or that shall we say propensity to go towards the BJP has considerably reduced at the moment. Yeah and it has not only reduced as compared to 2014 when the Modi wave was there but even if you went all the way back and compared it to 2008 when Manmohan was popular and the UPA2 was about to come to power. Congress has improved even on the 2008 numbers when you just consider the urban and the semi urban areas. So this is something which also reflected the semi urban areas. So yes the semi urban areas the shift to Congress is less pronounced but the pattern is the same across. And what would be the difference with the rural shift and the urban shift. So in MP if you look at the rural shift it's about the same MP is more even MP the rural shift is also about 13.5% same as the urban shift. So MP it's evenly moved away from BJP unlike in Rajasthan which is seeing a much sharper shift. But in terms of the final numbers the MP and Rajasthan numbers are remarkably similar. So what you're seeing is that in urban areas Rajasthan had voted much more decisively in favour of Modi in the 2014 election. So your argument that in fact that the Modi wave has really disappeared. That what you now see is the basic BJP strength if you will is the Congress. And these are the two parties in the fray in all these three states. What about Chhattisgarh does it behave similar to Madhya Pradesh or similar to Rajasthan or something in between. No so unlike in both Rajasthan and MP even though the gap has narrowed BJP still has about a 4% advantage in the urban areas. In Chhattisgarh that advantage has gone BJP trails the Congress in urban areas which is remarkable right. So if you look at Chhattisgarh I'll do the comparison with 2014. So again there is about a 17% shift statewide from 2014. Can you explain the colours here because there's a lot of faint colours and green colours which are strong. So green is a strong green is a flipped seeds. So the map legends are green is Congress and saffron is BJP but the bright constituencies are the constituencies which are flipped. So if you look at this map this is the only constituency which BJP flipped. So BJP did not win in 2014 and is winning now. While this entire green in the northern part of the state and in the Bastha area these are constituencies which Congress has flipped. So Congress did not hold them in 2014 is holding them now. And this shift is also in urban areas but what you are saying is that the shift has been of a magnitude where BJP is actually behind the Congress even in urban areas. Unlike in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan where they might have dropped a lot of percentage points but still are ahead of the Congress in urban areas. So in terms of the shift basically Chhattisgarh in Chhattisgarh BJP did not have that kind of advantage in urban areas even in 2014. And now that this 17% shift has happened BJP is trailing Congress in both the urban and in the semi urban areas in Chhattisgarh. So for example in the urban areas there are eight seats in Chhattisgarh which is Raipur, Durga. This is that area and I think up north there in this is the Bilaspur area. So out of these eight in these eight seats Congress now has a 4% is ahead of BJP by 4% Congress is about 46% and BJP is at 42%. How much was the swing in this? The swing BJP had a 13% swing so it's less than the overall swing in the state but it is enough to now put Congress on top in the urban areas. So do you mean to say the 13% swing against the BJP in urban areas is less than the overall swing? Yes, the overall swing is about 17%. So in that case BJP has not seen a significant erosion of its urban base compared to its rural base in this case unlike Rajasthan and Madhupadesh. But taking all this in consideration can we say that BJP has an urban problem now as well? Yeah, that's what it looks like and it's a long-term problem. It's not just the Modi factor and all but even if you compare the numbers with 2008, BJP is underperforming its numbers in 2008 when BJP was in no position to form a government. Even from those numbers BJP is underperforming in the urban and in the semi-urban area. So what is even lower compared to the 2008 figures? Compared to the 2008 figures. So in the urban and the semi-urban areas. So the perception that BJP is this urban party and its aspirational party that is not been reflected on the ground. That's not borne out by the numbers. There still be people who are vocally pro-BJP and Modi but it is not so much to do with the aspirational nature but what to do with perhaps the ideological positions. The kind of, shall we say, divisive politics BJP is playing and therefore appealing to a certain middle class. I think in India the middle class is like, it's the upper middle class which we see like South Delhi or South Bombay which probably call themselves middle class but really are rich. They're in the top 1% of the population. So that population still is very pro-BJP but when you look at the probably from the 90th to 99th percentile that population is moving away from BJP because... That's an interesting issue because these are basically what are called the Mofasil towns if you will. I mean that's a very bad collodial word but if you don't talk at the metropolitan towns but the non-metropolitan towns as it were and of course Jaipur is still a metropolitan town. So probably some of the other cities we are talking about for instance Indore and so on but definitely the smaller towns are not seeing any benefit of so-called globalization or the so-called middle class boom people are talking about. The middle class boom has tended to be more an IT boom. Very small segments of the people have really benefited it from it and the figures seem to show that what you are saying is that BJP is consistently underperforming in this area. Even in the top tier cities the lower middle class is not seeing any of the boom. The boom is very concentrated in the upper middle class the people who are working in the IT sector but the people in the slums in the semi slums areas what comprises the lower middle class they are not seeing any. So this is catching up with the BJP at the moment. Thank you very much Bappa to be with us and explain with your this very nice maps that you have managed to create for this click for news click and the database which is connected to it. News click actually has this maps which connect to the election commission data so that we get election commission data to populate this maps and it would seem to indicate that we are seeing a quote-unquote secular decline of the BJP's urban base. Baddhupadesh last word with you anything that the Baddhupadesh throws up or it is really a deadlock situation and as of by latest figures and I think the counting is now over that it is now locked at 114, 109. Is that the latest figures? Yeah 114 to Congress, 109 to BJP and BSP has two seats SP1 and independence of four. And it is interesting because BSP has already said that he does not want the BJP government so it will do anything to prevent the BJP from governing to power. If we take that even the BSP out of the equation or add that to the Congress at the moment the Congress then has at least a stake to form government. Yeah and Congress is claiming that at least two of the independence they are Congress rebels so they will come back to the party. So Congress seems poised to form the government. So unless the governor plays a similar role that it tried in Karnataka and since that has backfired badly in Karnataka maybe this time the governor will be wiser and not follow in the Karnataka governor's footsteps. Thank you very much Baput we meet us and we will come back to you with more analysis in news click about the elections and it's after bath.