 Welcome traitors to another two-month weekly market outlook for a week commencing the 28th of March with me, Patrick Monday. A couple of key market narratives to pay attention to this week, obviously the Russian Ukraine. Crisis continues, talks do continue, but little progress is made as a result of Russian invasion continues. Last week US President Biden met with NATO allies and said that he supports sending more NATO troops to Eastern border to stop Russia from going any further. In addition, Biden and the EU have reached an agreement to boost Europe's supply of liquefied natural gas by 2022, which will reduce Europe's reliance on Russia. The US and NATO are also working on contingency plans in case Russia chooses to strike NATO territory. However, markets also need to be attention to China as there is intelligence which suggests that they may provide Russia with semiconductors and other technology hardware, could China, for instance, help Russia to extend the war. Also, what would the ramifications for China be if they did supply Russia with equipment? Moving to the actual economic data slate for the week ahead now. In the US on Monday, we get February wholesale inventories. Last print was 0.8%. Looking for a 1.2% print, this time-out stocks are being replenished at a pretty robust pace. We also get March Dallas Fed Index on Monday. Looking for a 10-print there, provided timely update on manufacturing in the Texas region. On Tuesday, we get January FHFA house prices, looking for 1.3% print there. We also get January S&P, CS House Price Index. Soft inventory and eager buyers to drive house price growth before rate hikes start to take an effect. We also get March Consumer Confidence, looking for a 107.8%. Inflation concerns to dampen confidence. And then we get the Fed JOLTS job openings, looking for an 11,000-print there, pointing to an extraordinary demand for workers in the US. We also get Fred Speake from Harker. Then moving into Wednesday, we get the March ADP employment change, looking for a 413,000-print there. Job growth recovery to really strong levels after the Omnipromp decline. We get 4th quarter GDP out of the US. Looking for a 7.1% print, small upper revision. Anticipated in the final estimates. And again, more FedSpeak, this time-out stick and bargain. Moving into Thursday, we get February Personal Income in for a 0.5% print. We also get personal spending. Again, 0.5% print anticipated. Wheatling purchasing power is a concern. Strength in services necessary for above-trend GDP growth. PCE inflation has reached a 40-year high. And we'll get that PCE deflator on Thursday. And we're looking for a 0.6% print there. Core PCE deflator, looking for 0.4%. As price pressures will only slowly start to debate throughout the remainder of the year. We also get initial jobless claims set to remain at very low levels for the foreseeable future. March, Chicago PMI released on Thursday, 57.1%. Print anticipated. Supply issues are an ongoing concern and further FedSpeak from Williams. And we wrap up the week in the US with the all-important non-farm payrolls. Looking for 450k market median. March, average hours earnings, looking for a 0.4%. And the unemployment rate to 3.7%. We also get February construction spending. Looking for a 1% print there. Spending supported by strength in the home building sector. And we round out the week with the March ICM manufacturing. Looking for 58.3%. As manufacturing is a growing and a really strong case in the US at the moment. So that takes us to the technicals. And if we look at the dollar index. I believe we're forming a bullish flag pattern here. Ultimately, we're looking for this test of the 10770s. So I'm looking for any pullback to really to find support into the trend channel. Support here in 97, 90, 97, 80. Alternatively, a close through the descending trend line resistance will be also a bullish development. Through 98, 90s. And then we look for a grind up into our target zone of the 100.70. At this stage, cannot really get meaningfully bearish on the dollar. At least until we take out this internal trend line back through the 9770s. In the Eurozone, let's see what we've got. I think until Wednesday when we get March economic confidence. Looking for a 1.10 print there. Russian-Ukraine conflict and inflation set to weigh heavily on the European confidence. We also get March consumer confidence. And so that is also likely to find weight derived from the concerns over the Ukraine conflict. Then we head into Thursday and we get the February unemployment rate. Looking for a 6.7% print there. Tight labor market laying the foundation for further wage growth in the Eurozone. And we ran out the week on Friday with March market manufacture and PMIs lost out 57. Final estimate is likely to be in line for the month. And then we finish up with March CPI year over year, 5.8%. Looking for a 6.3% energy inflation expected to come through really strongly in that region for the Eurozone. From a technical perspective, the Eurodollar continues to find resistance at this descending trend line. As it stays in play, failures below on 1030s. I'm looking for a move down back through the prior cycle lows at 108. Twice we're going to move down to test 106.70s and potentially descending trend channel support down to the 105.90s. At this stage, it will take a close back through the descending trend channel resistance to set up a continued corrective move to the upside. And what we would be looking for there would be a equal legs objective. So if we hold these current lows week for a move up into monthly projected range resistance 112.30s and then the channel just above at 113.19s. But for now, the downside remains the focus until we get a close back through the trend line resistance. In Japan, pretty light data week on Thursday, we get February industrial production looking for a 0.8% there volatility remains as supply issues are continuing to be worked through in Japan. Then we ran out the week on Friday with the Q1 tank and large manufacturers index looking for a 12 print versus the last time out on 18 commodity prices and supply issues continue to weigh on sentiment. And then we finish up with the March Nikkei manufacturing PMI lost out 53.2 and looking for something in line for the final estimate for the month. From a technical perspective, Dolly Yen continues to be supported by the yield story in the US last week. Obviously, we had a Fed speak and the market narrative shifted towards the potential for a 50 basis points hike and that means at the next meeting which supported us yields saw big outflows and bonds and obviously that then correlates to a strong doll again. So I'm looking for another leg higher here as we hold 121 looking for a test of 123.30s from there. I'm watching for a pullback to ultimately retest the prior ascending trend line resistance and support back down to 1850s. In the UK, we start out the week with March Nationwide House prices on Monday. Rising mortgage rates are set to cool demand over the remainder of 2022. Tuesday, we get the February net mortgage lending, softer lending patterns to ventuate with the higher rates that we're now seeing in the UK. Then on Thursday, we get a fourth quarter GDP looking for a 1% print there, coming in robust health and fit to handle rate hikes over 2022. And we ran out of week in the UK on Friday with March Market Manufacturing PMIs looking for an inline 55.5 final estimate for the month. From a technical perspective, slowing dollar, whilst we find resistance at the trend line here, the internal trend line, 132.80s. I'm looking for a move back down through the Grier Cyclones 129.90s to get a test of the descending trend child support and the 78.6% extension of our 137.50 swing high to 128.90s. At this stage, we need to close back through 133.50 to suggest a more corrective upside and look at the monthly range resistance, 134.30s as the next target. And we round out the week down under in Australia. Pretty bright calendar there. Nothing on Monday. Tuesday, we get February retail sales looking for 0.9% print. January up, probably better than expected, weather and price effects in February. On Thursday, we get February dwelling approvals looking for a 10% print there. Omnicron creates an extreme volatility at the start of the year. We also get February private sector credit looking for 0.6%. January, 7.6% year every year stronger since 2008 and boosted from policy stimulus. And then we round out the week in Australia with February housing finance of 1.5% print there. Marketing a clear moderation since late 2021. Center on owner occupiers, first-time buyers especially, but with investors still showing good momentum. So we should look for some positive prints there. From a technical perspective, the Aussie dollar continues to find support, driven predominantly by the move we've seen in commodities. I'm looking for a test now into the 75.50s to find some supply in the market. Ultimately looking for a pullback into the prior descending trend line resistance. So now as to support 73.80s. And then we look for the next leg higher to test the 76th handle. And that concludes the weekly market outlook for week events seeing March 28th. As always, traders plan the trade. Trade the plan and, most importantly, manage your risk. Until next time, thanks very much.