 Hey everyone welcome to this week's video update today is Friday, February 14th Happy Valentine's Day Before we jump into the alerts, let's take a look in the community and talk about who got caught being hot this week This week goes to somebody who's just been with us for a few weeks, but Cheryl has jumped in Posted some great trade ideas answered other members questions asked some great questions Just providing value overall love it keep up the good work. Sure. All you got caught being hot also Had a there's a post in the community today about Trying to make sure that you're seeing all the posts it defaults to your personal feed right here You got to go and manually change it to everything and then it can when you do something sometimes it flips back so What I wanted to make sure everybody is aware of is I I never scroll through the feed like this to find new posts All I do is use this bell up here And so you can see anytime there's a post or somebody likes anything or anything happens It notifies it. You know, I've got one notification right here. So if I just click on the bell Then it brings up any new post that I have and then and then once I'm you know If I see it's just a bunch of likes and things like that I can see that and then I can just hit this button and mark all It's red and then that notification goes away You also need to make sure that you have your notification set to what you want So just click on this settings wheel right here And then you can say how would you like to be notified just on mobile and that's just the mobile app email both And then you can choose all the different things that you want if you just want to be notified of posts from Us the host or from others that follow you or everybody you have total control Over those notifications. Okay, so make sure you make sure you do that I think that's the easiest way to Navigate this community. I know there are some little quirks about it that are a little goofy, but that's how I do it So hopefully that is helpful So that's that let's oh the other thing I was going to mention the other thing in the community that I wanted to point out if If you didn't get a chance to check it out is I'm gonna search for Tim's name. So Tim Weiss one of our members he he posted a very detailed Post earlier this week and let me see if I can find it. Let me just click on Tim's name all activity And he he he made several very detailed posts and then he posted this video Love the love the skin tight turtleneck Tim rockin love it, but he detailed out a very Specific plan and with back tests and all kinds of stuff of things that he is doing For a strategy that works for him now if you're a brand-new trader and just learning options This is probably gonna be over your head But if not, it's just it's just a very well thought out and documented and kind of post About the strategy that that he's using it's not for everybody But certainly love the detail and love everything that Tim provided So that is awesome stuff Tim keep up the good work there and keep us posted on your strategy let's go to the alerts and Check out what's going on with all the alerts and all the current positions starting with the 10th was Monday and by the way just as a reminder I posted in the community Next Monday is president's day. This is coming Monday. So markets will be closed. No alerts We'll still be checking in the community But markets are closed Alright, so Monday the 10th first trade was an opening trade in Google. We put on a new iron duck in Google and So let's go to the platform check out Google So here's that and markets are closed right now. So don't don't take any notice of that P&L line That's not correct But you can see prices way up our duckhead now and if we look at the probabilities still got a about a 19 20% chance That price can get back into the duckhead. So let me actually get my drawing tool here in case I need to do something alright, so You know still got about a 19 and a half percent chance that price could get down into the duckhead So once we get under 15 under 10 then we'll look to potentially take that off early But for now, we're just holding on to our Google duck Next trade opening adjusting trade in ZW. So we just added another iron condor in ZW now We've got two of them. So if we take a look here's the here's the original one that we had on price It's kind of hanging out right here now There's no value left in those in those in that call side So trying to close that is pretty tough unless you want to pay up a couple cents So we're just holding on to this it's still within our range and so what we're hoping for is we get a little bit of a bounce higher in price and we can just take this off either way We're gonna be closing this trade. It only has seven days left to expiration. So sometime next week We will be closing that one and then the alert I just mentioned is this one here. So you can see price is still pretty centered nothing to do but wait on that piece Next trade closing trade in FXI. So we had a short strangle on in FXI booked around 35% of max profit And so we took that one off. We may look to re-enter if if implied volatility pops back up That's still a 72. I didn't I didn't even look at that one today I probably would have put something on now that I look at it But you know if implied volatility is still high in the next week, we'll look at potentially adding re-entering in FXI Next trade rolling adjusting trade in SPY. So we rolled our short call vertical from Feb to March and So let's take a look at SPY This market just continues to be strong It was down yesterday rallied back up down and today rallied back up That's just been the name of the game. So here's prices hanging out right inside of our range with SPY Just holding this for some of that downside protection some short short Delta Next trade we did a Post earnings short put vertical in Shopify So if you're not familiar with the strategy make sure you review our earnings course We provide kind of step-by-step on how this works but basically if if a stock announces earnings and then Once that earnings announcement is over and the markets open up if price opens above the expected move So I kind of drew it if you can see it drew a line here on the chart Just kind of depicting where that expected move was well price opened up here Price came down a little bit. We entered the trade about right here And what we're looking at is typically you're gonna get kind of steady to higher prices Now what's going on right now is actually pretty typical I'm not I'm not big on support and resistance. I don't really believe that is a true edge But if you look at the expected move right here, I mean price came down Bounced off came back down bounced off came back down and closed just under the where that expected move was so What we're doing is we're hoping that price gives us a little bit of a bounce in the next week and These options only have seven days left So if we can get a little bit of a bounce higher back into range and close that one out That's what we're looking for in Shopify We've also got an iron duck and I've got this alert Later on but basically we've got this earnings iron duck prices hanging out right here in the beak So we just let this expire it so far up We just let it expire. So we're gonna book that $196 big profit by the time you're watching this You will have already received that alert Next trade rolling adjusting trade in DIA so we rolled one of our short call verticals and we did this one out to April Yeah, so we've got we've got two pieces in here still We've got the the one that's in March You can see prices hanging out just outside the range here And then the alert that I just mentioned the one in April prices hanging out inside the range here So again, just holding these for that short delta exposure and right now We're a little over one-to-one on our ratio of short delta versus our theta Next trade rolling adjusting trade in QQQ. So basically the exact same thing We just rolled this one from Feb out to April and We've got two pieces in there as well. So if we look at QQQ Here's the one in March where prices outside the range and then this is the one in April where price is In the range. We just rolled this one. So again, just holding that for that downside bias Next trade opening trade in SPX. So we put on a new iron duck in SPX So we have we did this with 18 days to expiration now. We've got two of those and So here they are Machines running a little slow today. Oh That's it's I guess I'm running slow. That was SPI. Okay, so Here's here's the alert. I can see prices hanging out right here And so we got some time left in that one And then the other one that we have on from a previous alert is This one right here So if if we put our price slice right here, you can see we have only got about 13% probability That it'll get down back into the duckhead area And so if price kind of stays here goes a little bit higher in early next week We'll probably just close this out book that hundred and forty five dollar beak profit and move on Next trade with a closing trade in Tesla So we had an iron duck in Tesla and we booked a beak profit there price Had a run higher if we take a look at a chart of Tesla. It's kind of calmed down after its Meteoric rise and fall So pushed up came back down and it's kind of hanging out here So this day here when price pushed higher we went ahead and booked that book that beak profit and And got it out of that one with a nice little beak profit Next trade opening trade in Roku So we did an earnings iron duck in Roku and this one just had one day to expiration At the time when we put it on as we put it on yesterday Expires today and they announced after the bell yesterday. Well, what a wild ride Roku had let's take a look at that And so, you know, it opened up Significantly and then just all day just down down down down down down down Down and allowed us to book basically a duckhead now. We did take it off early I put the theoretical position back in here because there was a question in the community, you know Why why take why why close this out? Why not just let it expire and Assuming price does expire In between these short strikes right here, you can just let it expire the position will disappear You you book max profit The problem is and why we don't like to do that with stocks And especially if it's this close is if price would have made just a little move higher and closed in between Your short call and your long call Then you're gonna get assigned short shares and you don't have the protection Because those other options expired and you're just assigned assigned shares and so you're carrying that risk now Is that a huge deal? No, but you just need to understand what that That situation if this was spx or something that expired to cash We would have just let it expire, but we just bought this back for 25 cents Booked that a nice profit and are out of the end. We're out of the trade So nice trade there in Roku nice reversal for us Opening trade in Nvidia. So we did a post earning short put vertical in Nvidia again another situation where price They announced earnings and VDA they announced earnings and price opened above the expected move I just drew this little line on my chart to show what that expected move was Opened up here and then it did it rallied to a point where we were over 40% of max profit It just came so quickly and I thought well, we'll just let this run a little bit and see if we can get a little bit more It did come back down off of its highs But we're still in the profit on this one Up about 150 bucks and if we get a little bit of movement up into early next week We'll just go ahead and close that out next trade closing trade in Gild so we had a short strangle on in Gild booked over 35% of profit of max profit in just seven days on that If we take a look at a chart of Gild You can see implied volatility is still really high So we will look to potentially re-enter in here, you know, this is the implied volatility is high You know, they just announced earnings a couple weeks ago, but the implied volatility stayed high because They are doing some clinical trials on on some medication for the coronavirus and so there that's that's the major risk I mean there that's why there's the uncertainty That's why the options are expensive is because you know if this thing gets approved or disapproved Then there could be a big move in Gild, but I think it's worth the risk You know, that's why we that's why we sell premium is because that implied volatility is almost always overstated And we benefited from that and you know, we may jump back in and In sell some more premium in Gild Next trade closing trade in rut So we closed out our weekly double calendar booked a nice profit in there So these a couple alerts here today We put those through our alerts system and then I realized after the fact that they were they were delayed They were stuck. So that actually benefited you all I know a lot of you got at a much better prices in rut than we did and booked a lot a lot bigger profit So good for you there, but still a nice profit that we got We just happen to get out a little bit earlier than than most I think and then lastly is that Shopify Earnings iron duck that we just let expire and booked beak profit on so those are all the trade alerts Let's take a look at the position. So oil has been making a little bit of a bounce for us Which has been nice. We've got this short strangle price was all the way over here and it's come back closer to center and Giving us some profits were up about 400 bucks looking for a little potential move higher and then we could book this baby So we'll see what happens next week We've still got some decent time on that 32 days. So I still got it some decent time to let that happen Yes, we've got a long put vertical that we're holding for that short Delta This thing is going to expire next week. Yeah, we've got seven days So we'll be looking to roll to keep that short Delta on on that trade You can't get assigned an ES unless you let the options expire So no risk of assignment even though it's in the money. So we will roll that next week GC gold we've got two pieces on here. We've got a We've got a short call vertical that was part of our previous iron condor and then That one's out of range. So if we can get a little bit of down movement in gold We'll hopefully we can get back a little of that and then we put on another full iron condor Where you can see prices pretty centered just waiting for some more time to pass on that piece Natty gas. We've got this adjusted strangle. You see prices hanging out right here So just waiting for some more theta decay in Natty gas if we do move closer to one of these break evens I will look to potentially add. Let's see what implied volatility is doing if we check out UNG Yeah implied volatility's popped back up. So I would look to add to this if if that happens in Natty gas Bonds so bonds we are we've got this adjusted strangle that we adjusted into the 161 straddle We are actually up a couple hundred bucks two hundred two fifty something like that overall on the trade now and That's pretty cool because if you and this just kind of gives you an idea of why we roll and adjust the way that we do If we take a look at let's go to the continuous contract of ZB And I'll show you what I mean Let's go to a one-year chart. We put this trade on If I can get this to There we go So we put this trade on way back here Way back in this area and just had this Huge rally and bonds. I mean that is tough to defend when you're putting on a premium selling strategy just kind of a rip your face off rally and And so we just stayed mechanical rolled up the untested side rolled out to the next cycle and then what happened. Well, then Prices started to consolidate into a lot more narrow of a range and So sometimes that some of the sometimes the question I'll get is is okay Wouldn't it would it have been better just to cut your losses and use that capital on other trades? Well There's there's a couple factors there one is Yeah, it depends on what opportunity is out there, but if we look at TLT so that we can see the So that we can see the implied volatility You know implied volatility spiked and that's what we that's where we put this on and then we just got our face Ripped off with that rally that one directional move and so we we had to make the adjustments But look at implied volatility. I mean it stayed high the entire time And so if we get out we're just gonna want to get back in so there's no reason not to just stay in and stay Mechanical like we do like we teach in the course and rolled yet roll up the untested side roll up to the next side cycle Continue to book those credits collect those credits along the way and wait for price to kind of stabilize Which is just exactly what happened and so that's the that's the hardest thing I think is when you have these huge one directional moves You almost think gosh this thing is never gonna end But the reality is nothing goes in one direction forever eventually things stabilize And start to go sideways and that's exactly what happened and that's the methodology and that's why we do what we do So worked our way back from a decent-sized loser that happened pretty quick Back to a profitable trade And if and that's the key if you can take what would have been a losing trade and manage it back to a profitable trade That's what it's all about now had implied volatility just contracted and gone down to zero We probably would have gotten out, you know, we did that in a while back I think it was the euro where we kind of adjusted rolled and then implied volatility just Collapsed after the whole Brexit thing was kind of over and so we just got out We ended up taking a loss on that one But if implied volatility still highs stays high We're gonna stay in that trade and continue to be premium sellers be short premium continue to collect credits and Work our way back to profits and that's exactly what we did in bond. So good trade there So going back to where we're at. We're up a couple hundred dollars and you know We're kind of you know anytime if we were to put on a straddle. We're kind of targeting about 25% of max profit so we're almost there and so Assuming we don't have a big swing in price one way or another into early next week we will go ahead and take this off and and Book that profit in ZB and then if if Implied volatility is still high then then we'll look to potentially reenter reposition and just kind of start the start the process over Apple we've got the long put vertical here. You can see prices hanging out right inside the range there We've got Delta airlines. We put on this long put thinking we were gonna get looking for a quick move lower You know, it's what's crazy about this is Okay with the whole coronavirus, you know, we got this pushed down We bounced up and that's when we entered looking for a potential rollover And what's crazy about this is after we put the trade on Delta came out and announced that they were Canceling all flights in and out of China and I thought okay That's good for our position that that should make it go lower and it dipped lower for a second and then just rallied so interesting stuff how this market is just continuing to shake off some of this some of this bad news and so We're gonna we're gonna you know, we've only got seven days left on this So early next week, we're gonna close this out if we get a quick move lower You know potentially get back to even or maybe a little bit of profits. If not, we'll just take a loss on that one De John Deere down about one and a half percent today, which is good for us So brought price back here almost back into range is holding this for that Excuse me for that short Delta exposure De does have earnings coming up on the 21st so a week from now We'll hold this through earnings and just because we want to keep that short Delta on mentioned Google IWM Another short Delta position. We've got this long put vertical prices hanging out right here at the break even we'll look to roll this one next week and So this is really our last feb position This one an ES or the last ones that we have in Feb that will be rolling So we'll be doing that early next week. Remember markets closed Monday, so we'll do that on Tuesday Nvidia Yeah, I mentioned that one. We've got this short put vertical so looking for a little bit more up movement from from Nvidia QQQ I mentioned that one Shopify mentioned SMH So we've got this short strangle prices hanging out right here in the upper end of the range Could use a little bit of down movement and some more time to pass there. I mentioned SPX I mentioned SPY VIX We've still got our bunker trade on and The goal here is to Potentially add another one of these here in the next couple weeks Now, you know, like we talked about in the class just kind of layer into this To have that that kind of tail risk protection In place if we do get a quick move lower in stocks XBI we've got this short strangle looks pretty similar to SMH prices hanging out right here in the upper end of the range Just looks for a little bit of down movement in some more theta to K and then lastly XLK We've got this long put vertical here price hanging out right near the break even just looking for some more downside to benefit that So those are all of the alerts Those are all the trades everybody have a great weekend and have a good long weekend. We'll talk to you next week on Tuesday