 to this session called Greening Aviation, How Consumers Will Power the Future of Light. My name is Kevin Subly, and I'm the Project Lead for the Clean Skies for Tomorrow initiative here at the Forum focused on sustainable aviation. This Greening Aviation session is run in conjunction between this Clean Skies for Tomorrow project and the Forum's Natural Climate Solutions cluster. We have a great setup for you today. We'll kick off with opening remarks by Christoph Wolff and then move directly into an expert panel discussion. Following that discussion, which will run about 30 minutes and be live streamed to the Forum's website, we'll move into breakouts, three different breakouts to which you will be automatically allocated. In those breakouts, we'll have a facilitated conversation with yourselves to get to your interested comments and feedback and thoughts about the initial conversation in the panel and any other comments that you'd like to make and thoughts, ideas you'd like to contribute to the conversation. So following those breakouts, we'll have a readout where everyone will share, the discussion leaders will share their summary of spots, move into a quick Q&A and closing remarks from our own Justin Adams. That's our run of session. So without further ado, let me hand it over to Christoph Wolff, head of the Mobility Platform here at the World Economic Forum to provide some opening remarks and some scene-setting comments. Christoph, over to you. Yeah, thank you, Kevin, very much for the introduction. Welcome from my side also to day two. I know that greening aviation has actually been a topic of considerable interest and I want to say also hello to all those who are listening in as the session is actually live streamed. Now, let me cast a few words on why actually within the forum, the platform of mobility that includes aviation, travel tourism and has an initiative since two years called Clean Skies of Tomorrow and our platform for nature-based solutions are working together on this specific topic. I should say, and I would like to start with aviation. Sustainability in flight has become a topic of considerable public interest over the last two years. And that has to do a lot with flight shaming. Actually, Greta Thunberg two years ago and many of her followers and as a father of basically 18 and 20 year olds. So we could see the conversation on dinner table. Basically said, flying is not good. And also flying is against the climate. We shouldn't fly a rather basically use other means of transportation, which are much more economic. This public sentiment was new. Actually until recently, until a few years ago, basically aviation was accepted to be the industry that probably would be last or one of the last deliver on the Paris climate agreement. Actually, it hasn't been part of the Paris climate agreement. It's been covered by a special, by a separate treaty in which the industry under the leadership of IKO, it's a UN agency basically agreed on an offsetting scheme called Corsia that would kick in by now 2020 and were basically any growth beyond a certain amount at a certain time would be needed to be covered by offset. So here offsets basically were chosen as the appropriate pathway towards actually decarbonization some years ago. Now, you are now in COVID times. So aviation industry, nobody is flying for other reasons, but eventually we assume this will take up again with not with the growth rates until like two years ago or a year ago, pre-COVID people thought this industry would double by 2035 again. Airported capacities needed to increase needed to double as well. And, but as a matter of fact, most of the world actually, especially in developing countries hasn't even started flying. So we would assume also for equity reasons, we will need to fly to keep the world connected and we will need to fly more. Now, how can that actually act sustainably? And that has actually brought the conversation that in addition to offset as a pathway which would create carbon sinks, you have seen about the one trillion tree initiative of the World Economic Forum which could make a 25% contribution to greenhouse gas basic reduction and actually bind CO2 from the atmosphere. The sector, the aviation sector is on a pathway to decarbonize to find its own pathway toward industrial decarbonization either via innovation, that's probably for electric flights or hydrogen flights or moving into a zero carbon fuel base. This is so-called sustainable aviation fuels either by second generation biofuels or by actually e-fuels. So hydrogen based fuels. And now the interesting conversation that is coming up is how do we bring these two things together? So there's actually two camps. So it's basically the camp that's saying, okay, forget about technology, we'll take too long. So let's about go full throttle into the offsetting basically build trees, not get basically distracted by what the airline industry does. So that's one camp. The other camp is basically saying, okay, these offset cutting scheme, they're often they're not at the same quite quality and while busy trees are being burned, so how can we really actually get really make this big and at the scale. So let's rather go and avoid the greenhouse gas emissions in the first place by going to a different fuel base. Both is probably correct, both is correct, but there's not an integrated narrative, not an integrated framework. And we as a forum think we need to bring these two together. There may be a role for the financial sectors to basically fund both, but we will not get to the root cause nor create the opportunity for carbon sinks if we don't leverage the sector's potential for scaling offsetting, but at the same time working duly on industry decarbonization. So the purpose of the session is to talk to those who actually have both in mind, yeah, like companies like Shell and others that actually look into both alleys and find, discuss what are the most appropriate ways to bring these two conversations into one, such that they are productive, that they enhance mutually and they lead to what we actually think is absolutely necessary by 2050. The sector is fully compliant with the Paris Agreement and you can really fly zero carbon. Thank you very much. May I invite, as I said, I think we are happy to basically come bring into the panel three parties that actually I have been thinking about these type of topics long and hard. And maybe I can bring in first David Hone who's the chief climate advisor of Shell and Shell is investing actually is very active on the clean skies of tomorrow platform that actually charts with a hundred plus conditions and pathway to net zero mid-century by going to SAF but also investing a lot into offsets. So maybe over to you David to give us your perspective on that question and how do we deal with the trade-offs between these different pathways and what is Shell doing here? Right, well, Crystal, thank you very much. So I work in the Shell Scenarios team and one of the projects we've been working on over the last couple of years is our sky scenario. And this is a scenario that meets the goals of the Paris Agreement. And within that, we dive quite deeply into the aviation sector. And there are a number of perspectives that come out from this. The first is that aviation takes probably about a century to decarbonise completely. In other words, to go to a situation where say all the planes in the world are running on hydrogen. So a completely different technology set. And the first signs of that technology don't really emerge until the 2040s. And there's an interesting perspective that yesterday, of course, we saw Airbus putting forward some concept pictures of planes that could run on hydrogen. And they were postulating that these might be available by 2035. So we've set up a structure in the sky scenario where a number of things happen. First of all, new technologies do start to arrive from about the 2040s onwards. And they slowly penetrate the aviation sector through to the end of the century. As you mentioned, sustainable biofuels, sustainable aviation fuels also come into the picture. But they don't fill the whole gap. Aviation is a very large sector. And I would expect growth to continue once we recover from the severe dip that we're in at the moment. And so biofuels act as part of the story. And then the third piece, of course, is removals. Now, in the sky scenario, we focus on industrial removal. So that is removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and geologically storing it. But even that technology takes a while to get going because, of course, it doesn't really exist at scale today. And so therefore, that throws the emphasis back onto nature-based solutions as the short-term immediate option that's scalable now and can be quantified and implemented now. I think the key aspect of nature-based solutions that's important is that the use of them within the context of aviation sits within the context of the Paris Agreement under the accounting provisions of Article 6. And this is the article that accounts for cooperation between parties. And I think it's important that aviation fits in there such that we're certain that the reductions are real, verified, and are not double counted. So this is a continuum of change, that's probably going to stretch at least to the end of the century and probably into the next century. There is no sudden quick fix, but the world can get to net-zero emissions with aviation on this journey. Although that journey won't be complete by the time the world is at net-zero emissions. Thank you. Thank you, David, for your perspective. And indeed, I think we work with Shell closely on the assistive aviation fuels, which is not only second generation biofuels, but also the e-fuels here as well. And there's actually a lot of innovation also happening on that side. Sorry. Let me bring in... Sorry, I'm having a little bit of a... So let me bring in D'Arsono Hartono, who is the CEO of PT-Rimba-Makmur-Uttama. This is one of the largest, actually, Indonesian AC producer of nature-based solutions. Maybe you can tell us a little bit about your business model and the scale of it, and how do you see the contribution of nature-based solutions to the global climate crisis? Thank you, Christophe. Good morning or good afternoon for everybody. Thank you for the invitation from the forum. My name is D'Arsono Hartono. I am the CEO of PT-Rimba-Makmur-Uttama. Yes, we are the project developers for Kattingan-Mantaya Project, which is the world-largest nature-based solution project in the world today. Like David mentioned, I think people need to understand more about offset at this time. I think there is a path of decarbonization, particularly on the aviation sector. And we'll be happy to share that with using nature-based solutions. When I started my company about 13 years ago, I think people understand and think that it's important to save nature. But I think, unfortunately, people are not willing to pay because offset is something that people are not comfortable with. But I think throughout this journey of the past 13 years, as the largest project in the world today, we transparently can show that not only we are mitigating climate change by reducing all this potential emission that will happen, but also are working with communities, being inclusive, and provide all the things, the livelihood program that we can do for the project. So more and more people understand our nature-based solution. Particularly, I think we all agree that we need nature to survive. I think the next 100 years will be important for us if we want to reach that goal of less than 1.5 degrees Celsius that we need nature. Well, I think nature might not need us, but we need nature more than ever. So I think I will be happy to share our experience the past 13 years, the challenges that we have faced. But I think it is a path for decarbonization for a lot of sectors. I mean, this is something that we will be happy to do. I think that what humanity should look into this closely because like we mentioned, with nature, we can actually have the path for survival, not only about decarbonization. So we'll be happy to share later as we progress. Thank you, Christoph. Excellent. Thank you very much. I'm sure in the breakouts, we will discuss more in-depth about how you maintain the environmental integrity of the nature-based solutions and so to achieve your goals. Let me bring in Robert Boyd, who is the assistant director environment of Ayata or ATAC, which is basically the environmental arm of Ayata and is working with the whole airline aviation industry to basically create pathways to a sustainable future. And we work again, we work very closely on the Clean Skies Initiative and where we try to actually accelerate and scale sustainable aviation fuel far ahead of the timeline that actually still the sky scenario would increase. But obviously it needs investment. It needs to bring down the cost to make it really competitive. And obviously there still remains to be a trade-off as for at least for now, nature-based solutions come actually at a fraction of the price for our sustainable aviation fuel. Robert, over to you, if you can basically highlight and lighten us a bit about the Corsair framework and the steps that ATAC is doing in order to actually bring sustainable aviation fuels into a sphere where it becomes competitive and scalable. Thank you. Thank you very much, Kristof. And thanks for your opening remarks and thank you, Kevin, as well. Just to be clear to on in this context on representing IATA, which is the commercial airlines, about 290 commercial airlines of the world. ATAC, as Kristof says, is actually broader. That's the entire aviation sector. So it brings in the airframe as the airports, councils, international, et cetera. But just for this particular event, I'm speaking on behalf of IATA. But as you say, this has been the way you framed it, I think at the very start, interesting and correct, there are different camps in the way people think about tackling this challenge, this decarbonisation challenge. And as you said, it I think hadn't been in front of mind up until a couple of years ago. And I often note the IPCC report that came out in October 2018 and it really identified how vital it is to aim for the 1.5 degree scenario by mid-century. And I think the scientific credibility there made the aviation sector very aware that we have a huge challenge ahead of this. And I'd frame it, from our side, I would say we don't necessarily sit in one camp or the other, but that every possible decarbonisation option is critical and we're going to need every single one. So about 11 years ago, the entire industry committed to three targets or goals. The first one was an incremental improvement. That's essentially been done, that was up until 2020 and that was a modest annual improvement and that was exceeded, but we're really at a point where we need much greater ambition. So as Christoph says, there was an international agreement called Corsiet, the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for international aviation. And it's important to note the carbon offsetting is exactly as you stated that it's obviously offsets. That's the primary idea. But it was in 2016 at the IKO assembly that the term was changed from a market-based mechanism to Corsiet and the reduction piece was designed specifically to capture sustainable aviation fields as being a compliance mechanism. And I think also noting that it's going to be very important as we move out towards mid-century. So Corsiet does, as you say, start in 2020. It's now going to be based on the 2019 emissions so there'll be no growth above that going forward. I suspect that in the early, certainly in the early stage of Corsiet, there will be good deal of the obligations met through offsets. But we are genuinely seeing increasing activity, huge increasing activity and interest in SAF and the clean skies of tomorrow work has in a sense, I think, brought a lot of this together and a lot of the thinking together on how these ambitions for mid-century meant. I mean, the specific industry goal that has been agreed is to halve net CO2 emissions by 2050 relative to the 2005 levels. And I think anyone that takes a careful look at what that really means, we can hypothesize at the moment we're in a COVID scenario. It's a little bit hard to, well, our forecasts are blurry right now when you think about that. But I think as Christoph said, that people will need to fly again and they will, you know, there's a big portion of the world that hasn't yet flown and it's highly likely that those folk are going to want to fly and they should be able to fly. So to halve the net CO2 emissions, they're basically to get down to 325 million tonnes from, say, 2 billion tonnes of CO, million tonnes of CO2. It's a substantial reduction. You're on your way to net carbon zero. So whether that's mid-century or that's a little, well, 2050 or what we might more in a blurry sense call mid-century, we'll have to see. But there are airlines already taking a leading ambition and stating their commitment to achieve net zero. If we think of the SAF side, then I would say the industry does have a preference for trying to do as much insect decarbonisation as possible. But note, there will be, I think, a necessity to use some offsets as well. But, you know, I think a lot of the work that bodies such as, well, IKO initially did some of this work, but Clean Sky has really backed it up with some tremendous, you know, modelling, demonstrating that it is actually achievable to get very large penetration SAF. And the industry is going to have to come along here from the demand perspective and, you know, and help that become a reality. So I believe that that is some opening remarks, but it's a big challenge ahead, but it is actually an achievable challenge. Yeah, Robert, thank you very much. I would want to add one thing before I, topic before I hand over to Kevin to bring us into the breakouts. So we basically said, how can consumer power this? Yeah, and obviously some of the airlines with like programs like Board Now or Compensate, they basically give the opportunity for voluntary offsets. Yeah, and that actually has been augmented by the capability to actually buy sustainable aviation fuel for your flight. So to basically, which is a more expensive opportunity. And within Clean Sky, as there are a lot of companies, actually that especially on the tech side, for whom basically the carbon footprint through aviation represents a significant and the overwhelming part of their carbon footprint overall. And they want to reduce the carbon footprint to zero as soon as possible. And they're basically, within Clean Sky, we bring all this demand for SAF into one space and actually are trying to establish a global marketplace where actually big corporates can basically buy sustainable aviation fuels and basically enable the initial start of the ramp up so that we can actually sustainable aviation fuel can be kick-started investment pours into building plans for that. And so we get out of this chicken and egg situation where currently we have, it's not, the path is not proceeded because there is no demand. So there's no supply because there's no demand. So I wanted to add that, but now I give back Kevin to take us to the breakouts. Thank you, Christoph. One quick question that I would ask perhaps for David is a quick comment on last land use impacts on sustainable aviation fuel pathway. While you answer that question, I'll adjust the breakouts. Thank you. Right, well, thanks. So I won't claim to be an expert on land use change. I think the Sonos probably far more qualified in that area than I am. But I think sustainable aviation fuels aren't just about growing crops or biomass for fuel. I mean, the market's also starting to look at the role that waste can play. So there's potential for collecting waste. Some of the early sustainable aviation fuels have come from collecting waste oils from cities. Now, the scale of that is limited. So of course you do then have to go into biomass sourced aviation fuels. But I think that's manageable. We already have a very large biofuel industry globally. And of course that today is manufacturing fuels for the automotive market. But if you think about this in parallel, as the aviation market is starting to look for sustainable aviation fuels from biomass, the auto market should actually be declining because we're moving to electric vehicles. So I think that the total is manageable. We shouldn't just imagine this as piling on more and more demand on the agricultural sector because that will be shifting as well as a result of other changes in the transition. Thank you, David. And Darson, indeed, would you care to comment? Thank you, Kevin. But I think the key is, we're talking about the transition of decarbonization. So what we are seeing right now is a major base solution is one of the pathway to get there. And our experience shows that not only that we are reducing potential emission, we're also working inclusively with communities. So it is very inclusive as well as a business to be in. Of course, everybody would love to have one day we are not going to have emission from the aviation sector. But as a land use, it contributes a lot to the world in terms of emissions. So one way to have a win-win scenario is to make sure that we have our nature intact while we are working on our path to get the sustainable alternative view for the aviation. Thanks, Darson. And perhaps Robert can add an initial or concluding thought on that as well. Robert, perhaps worth mentioning that aviation as a hard-to-abate industry actually has at the moment no alternative viable pathway for decarbonization, whereas transport like road and perhaps even shipping does. Yeah, thanks, Kevin. That's very true. And I mean, to your point of, you know, well, land use change or environmental impacts of sustainable aviation fuel, I'd be very clear when we use the word as the industry, when we use the word sustainable aviation fuel, it does have a very specific meaning and the aviation industry is particular, both from a regulatory standpoint in what is defined as being sustainable. So all of these factors are taken into account and that's included within the coarsier framework on things like indirect land use change, direct land use change. But also the industry has signed some declarations and this is a whole of industry factor on what the minimum requirement for sustainability would be. So that is things like not competing with food, you know, not impacting biodiversity. You know, we all know aviation is a very public industry and it's important to uphold the standards that the public would expect if we are calling something a sustainable aviation fuel. So I can say, you know, that there is industry agreement on that and it's taken very seriously. Wonderful. Thank you, Robert.