 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com Nightly Wrap-Up Show. Hope everybody is doing great. This was obviously going to be the last weekend update of 2019. So for all you guys who joined us this year or have been following us for a while, hopefully you guys had an amazing, amazing 2019. If you are an experienced trader, you can see the difference between what a normal year, quote unquote normal, that's a very subjective word, or something that's very exaggerated. We'll get back to that in a second. If you were a new trader, and this is the year that you started. Well, congratulations. You started the most euphoric year probably since the dot com era, again, which we've covered it in nausea here throughout throughout our time together. But I think the most important part of going into 2020, I really want everybody just to be happy. I think the idea of being happy is such a subjective word, and happiness means different things to the different people. But I think if we all are just trying to be better friends to ourselves, and really taking care of ourselves and our families, I think the subjectiveness of happiness will really ooze out in our lives. I think that's the most important part. So for all you guys who are with us for a long, long time, I wish you guys a very, very happy and healthy new year. I wish you guys nothing but the best for 2020, and beyond. And the most important part is I just want everybody to be happy. So let's talk about the market. Okay, but before we talk about the market again, you know, there's really nothing macro wise to talk about this market is on just an incredible, incredible run. Okay, really, there's no really talk. There's no really need to talk about the Dow Jones and then as that composite, what happened this week, blah, blah, blah, they're all less than a percent. And again, linear move. Today, I want to start out with something a little bit different. Okay, and I want to start out with a guy by the name of Bobby low. Now, for all you guys who are watching this the first time, usually I don't put kind of different, different things to compare to in life and stuff like that. But I found something very, very interesting. Some of you guys who are wondering why is there a black and white photo on my video? What the hell does this have to do with trading? Well, first of all, who's Bobby low, right? Bobby low. And again, I didn't know who he was till today. But Bobby low was a professional baseball player towards the end of the 1890s, the start of the 1900s. And you can see by his like Wikipedia page, he played for the Boston beateries, right? Not in the red sauce, the Chicago Cubs, the Pirates and all that good stuff. And if you look at his career numbers, okay, if you look at his career statistics, you'll see that he had a very, maybe a little bit more than average batting average of 273. And he had 71 home runs. Okay. Now, why is this guy, why is this guy on my screen? He did something that two other well known guys did actually a good handful of people did. But two of these guys are are much more known and in the baseball world, guys by the name of Willie Mays and guys by the name of Mike Schmidt. Willie Mays has hit was hit 660 home runs Mike Schmidt, I believe it was hit like 548. So who the hell is this guy and what do they have to do with anything with him? Bobby low. Okay. In 1894, did something that only probably a dozen people, maybe a little more did through the history of baseball. And that's the same thing he did with Willie Mays, just like Willie Mays and just the same thing as Mike Schmidt. He hit four home runs in a game, right? If four home runs in a game, if you notice, and if you notice his total count, right, his total home run count, and this is he played about 1215 years, his total count was only 71. Okay, so the most amazing part of those four home runs were that it was basically about 15%, almost 15, 20% of his total home runs in one day, okay, in one day. And how does that correlate into trading? Okay, think about this like this, we are in a market right now that I'm hearing a lot of new traders having an incredible amount of success very, very quickly, very, very aggressively, not everybody, obviously. Okay, but if you look at your friends, the people you speak to, just social media in general, there's a lot of new traders getting great amount of success. And that's fantastic. Okay, that is the most biggest blessing that you can have, that you have the ability to make some money, support your family, whether you're doing it full time, part time, whatever the case may be. It's just a blessing, especially towards the holiday season, to be in that position that you can just, again, just, you know, rest a little bit easy, take a little bit of a deep, you know, deep breath. But right now what we're seeing is something that you're not going to see in 2020. Now, before everybody turns around and say, whoa, Dan, don't be, you know, don't be a Debbie Downer. Now what I'm trying to say, every trader who's been trading for at least a decade, I don't want to go back to two decades, but at least a decade, we'll tell you that there is a lot of things, a lot of similarities with every single bull market run that we've had since at least I was trading. You can go back from 99. You can go back to the four moves, starting at the bottom of 2009, right, all that good stuff, right, to kind of where we are now. But unfortunately, what happens with every euphoric market, and every single professional trader will tell you this, eventually, it is going to come down just strictly because of the fact of gravity. Now, again, before you turn around and say, oh, Dan's calling for, no, no, I'm not calling for anything. I'm the king of the idiots. I don't call for anything. I don't predict anything. I don't forecast anything. I don't have a crystal ball. I'm speaking from the point of experience. Okay. And when you see stocks putting in an average true range out of a breakout, right out of a breakout out of a natural channel that goes up three, three and a half, four times average true range. Okay. And you find yourself, especially a new trader finds themselves in a position saying, I had my best day ever multiple times in a month. Okay. That shows you the disconnect between fantasy and reality. And the most dangerous part about a market like that. And again, we went through that. Okay, we went through that hook line and sinker with the internet craze. I didn't think for a second, for a second. There was a reason why the internet bubble was ever going to pop. The market keeps on going higher. The stocks keep on going higher. The real estate prices are going higher. Sentiment is going higher. There's nothing that's going to derail this market. And then one day, the market bubble popped, right? The market bubble popped. And stocks that were $200 a share, there's no way they can go to 150. Oh my God, at 100, they're just giving it away. No way the stock breaks $75. $50 is a gift. 25 back up the truck. $10? Oh man, people, right? You kind of get the point. And the problem was when a euphoric market bubble pops. And again, nobody who's to say it's going to pop in 2020. Who knows, right? We don't know. We're talking about from the point of always playing devil's advocate. Again, I don't trade with rose-colored glasses. Okay, I've been through it. I've been through the wringer way too much and emotionally destroyed way too much and had my hopes and dreams and emotions and everything in between crushed so much. So I'm not speaking from the point of euphoria. I'm speaking from the point of experience. I'm speaking from the point of what I went through, okay, trading euphoric markets. And then what happens is you are at the point that you don't believe it's ever going to end until it ends. And then you find yourself in a very, very horrific mental state of mind realizing that, well, wait a minute, maybe I wasn't as good as I thought. Maybe I'm not as a good trader as I thought. Maybe the results that I got in such a short period of time, okay, were the byproducts of me being a little bit lucky. And you start doubting yourself and you start putting yourself in a position of weakness and everything you've accomplished to this point. Now you are second guessing over and over and over again. And when the ranges shrink and the average true range of a stock like for example, like an Amazon or a Tesla doesn't put in a $30 channel only puts in six doesn't put in a $15 channel only puts in two. What you start doing is trying to relive the average true range of the year past of the 2019 and all those trades that normally ran again the word normal is a very subjective term. But the normal trade on Tesla that normally you would take the $2 the dollar 50 the 275 the three and a quarter. You're trying to hold on to the years past of that $9 candle of the $25 move in two days of the $48 move in a week. Okay. And instead of trading from reality, you are still hanging on the same way I tried to hang on to the dot com error. Okay. How can I possibly only take a dollar in this trade? What am I crazy? I had 20 just two months ago. Right. And you start developing really, really bad habit. And the problem with developing bad habits are psychologically the newer you are in this business, the easier it is to crawl into your shell and never recover. And for the traders right now that are having phenomenal success. Again, guys, God bless. It's phenomenal. God has blessed you. Okay. You're doing great. It's fantastic. But the worst thing you can happen. Okay. The first thing the worst thing you can possibly do to believe that you are doing something exceptional. Okay. And the most the worst day. Okay. The absolute worst day in the worst week and the worst month that happens in any trader, especially new traders journey is that first week. Right. It's that first week of the new year that everybody's overly excitable. Look what I just did in 2019. This was my best trade of the year. No, two days later, that was my best trade of the year. I know I couldn't make any money for the first six, seven months of the year. But I think I finally got it. Look, I just caught Amazon for 100 points in two days. I think I finally got it. And then you realize slowly but surely ranges start to contract. Okay. And normal years and gets a very, very subjective term. Normal years, a good move on Tesla right for the first half of 2019 all through 2018 was like two, two and a half dollars per interval. Okay. Maybe you could get a five, seven, eight dollar run throughout the week, maybe $10 if it gets extreme a week, week and a half. But when you see Tesla going on $48 run in four days and five days, that's crazy. When you see Amazon put up an $80 candle, literally an $80 candle. We talked about this a couple of days ago, that massive, massive range break that finally woke up the stock and put up $110 move within 24 hours. You can make an argument, well, it's an $1800 stock. Okay. Okay. But when Amazon has been trading with $9, right, with a $9 range for four months and it puts up $110 candle, again, is it something that, that is normal? Okay. Which one, which part was the normal part? Was it the $9 range for three months or was it the $110 range in two days or actually in 24 hours? And unfortunately what happens is you start sipping your own Kool-Aid. Okay. You start sipping your own Kool-Aid and going into the next year, you believe you're holding on to what you just saw and you start making careless mistakes. Okay. One by one. And they start off small. Okay. They start off small. You start believing that a stock can go from $8 to $23 in two days by next week's expiration will be a 35. Not realizing this stock has already gone from $8 to $23. And you start putting on small bets, small bets, and start pushing a little bit more. Start pushing a little bit more. And the next thing you know, sentiment changes, ranges contract, and not only are you giving back a really good amount of money because again, you're getting confidence. You're getting false sense of security. You keep on pushing and pushing and pushing. Okay. Until the camel's back breaks. Okay. Not only are you going to start losing money slowly but surely. Okay. And start deviating from what you're doing to get to that point that you made some money. Okay. You are going to start getting depletion of confidence, mental equity, and slowly but surely you're going to start to doubt everything you did to get to that point. Okay. This can be avoided. Okay. It's incredibly important if you've never heard, if you've never listened to anything I've said. Okay. Anything said, ah, this guy is Schmuck. Okay. And I am. Believe me. The Schmuck, the king of the eighties. Anything you want to say, I am. Okay. Guilty as charged. But if for all you new traders, okay, they've had some success this year and you're in this kind of euphoric honeymoon stage that you believe this is it. This is your tipping point. This is to that next level ship. Right. Right. They should keep on hearing about social media. Take your trade into the next level. Again, I don't know what that next level is, but right. You think you're there. The best way to kind of curb your enthusiasm. Okay. And save yourself a lot of heartache because it will come again. Any market professional has been doing this for at least a decade. I'm not talking about the 22 year olds been doing this for a year and a half. They're calling themselves experts. I'm talking about market professionals been doing this thing 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 years. They will tell you it's only a matter of time. Okay. No matter how good the market has ever been in our generation, no matter how strong the bull market, they've have common denominations and I get common denominator is they will crush your soul. They will crush your bank account because again, the market will never tap your in the shoulder and say, Hey, by the way, euphoria is over. We'll go back to natural true ranges. We don't know what's going to happen for 2020. Don't worry. It's all good. Keep pressing, keep pressing, keep pressing. And the one advice I always give aspiring traders, okay, aspiring professional traders is every single day, take a step back. Just take a step back and breathe. Okay. Nobody is telling you not to appreciate what just happened to nobody is telling you not to celebrate some joy and happiness in life. Okay. What I'm trying to tell you, try to drill into your big, beautiful skulls, especially if you're new traders that are doing this less than two, three years. Okay. Every single night, take a step back. Okay. And ask yourself a question. Look at your positions. Look at the chart and ask yourself a position. It's not where the stock just came from. Okay. Where can it go next? And a lot of times when you look at a chart or you look at a stock or you look at sentiment. Okay. And you just take a step back and take off the rose color glasses. Right. Amazon's going to 2,500 tomorrow. Okay. Maybe. Right. But if you take a step back and really listen to what you're saying and really look from where the chart came from, such a very, very short period of time. Okay. Is there, is this the safest place for your money? Okay. Always ask yourself that. Is this the safest place for your money? Not where you think it's going to happen. Not that you believe the gravy train is never going to end. You always want to turn around and ask yourself, is this the safest play for my money? And the reason why you should do that, because when you're in a linear market, okay, we're going straight up. And again, I'm not trying to be Debbie Downer. Who's to say we can't rally for the next year, for the next five years, for the next 10 years. Nobody's saying that. Well, we're trying to say what I'm trying to convey to every single new trader that hasn't gone through the depression of a nasty rug pull before you start getting consistent in your ways of thinking, your ways of trading, all that good stuff, money managing, so forth and so on. I'm just putting you in a position that before you get run over by gravity. I don't know if that makes sense. But before you even get run over by gravity in the reality of whatever goes up and goes down, at any given point, always put yourself in a position to say, can tomorrow be the day of the pull? Everybody knows it's going to come, right? At some point, everybody knows it's going to come. And if you think, and if you're right now watching this video and turning yourself, Dan, you're more on your crazy, I wish you the best of luck. I really, really wish you the best of luck because again, you don't need to go through it. The market people who've been trading for 20 years, again, I'm going on my 21st years, I already went through that emotional rug pull twice. With the dot com error, I saw it happening with the pull right before the mortgage mess that started coming down and we couldn't figure out what was going on. At 2007, we couldn't figure out what was going on. It was getting pulled, right? We had a big, big run from 2003 to about 2007. Really, really strong run, right? The rebirth of Shapiro after the internet craze and it pulled. It pulled because again, dynamics change, the markets change, new technologies form in, more market participants form in, more people have the ability to raise money. You can be on the other side of your trade trying to take down your position, okay? All that good stuff. Again, you could be the most abrasive, egotistical, arrogant human being trader. Nobody could tell me nothing. I'm Teflon. I can walk on water and look what I just did. My best trade ever. My second best trade ever. My third best trade ever. This is all in a week, okay? Just listen to me. Just listen to me very carefully. This does not need to happen to you, okay? You don't need to fall into that lesson. I can't believe I gave it all back. You don't need to have the bravado, okay, to keep pushing and pushing and pushing, okay? The market is not meant to be powerful, okay? Moves of $48 in five days, 100-point moves in one day or in 24 hours, okay? 150-point moves in three weeks. He's in that moment, okay? I don't care who you spoke into, you know, the dot-com area was special. Everything else after that became a grind, okay? Even though the most aggressive markets, they became a grind. And ultimately, your area of interest, your psychology behind everything you're doing is you have to approach trading every single day. I don't care if you're a swing trader, day trader, however you trade, but approach every single day with the mental makeup of, can this be the day? Okay, can this be the day that the market finally pulls my card? And once you get into that really, really linear aggression area and the market feels like it will never come down and it feels like you're doing something superhero-like, that's what happens. And if you just go into that, you know, if you go into every single trading day with eyes wide shut, I give you my word. I promise you, the monetary result of your actions will be a picnic compared to what it's going to do mentally over the course of the next several weeks, okay? I give you my word. You can avoid that, okay? You can avoid that. A lot of you guys don't have any traders in your lives. They've been trading more than three, four years, okay? I'm giving you my word. This will happen. I give you my word. And every single day, the one thing I'm always keep on saying, especially in live webinar, wait for value, okay? I'm not checking to buy Tesla up $78 in two days. I'm not checking to buy on that one candle, Amazon up 110 points. Wait for value. Wait for the same trades to give you an advantageous reentry point if there is. Use risk versus reward, okay? Risk versus reward, not reward versus risk. Because again, anytime you think you are doing something special, the market guys have a very, very sick sense of humor. Incredibly aggressive sense of humor that they will pull your card, slap the shit at you, okay? Mentally, monetary, okay? And we'll really show you how insignificant our ability is to function within these walls of the stock market. So be very, very, you know, be very, very wary of this. I promise you it will happen, whether it happens this year, next week, three months from now, it will happen, okay? Any market professional watching this has been doing this for at least 10, 15 years. We know it's not a shock. The question is, when? The only point is, put yourself in a position of strength. Don't trade in a fetal position when something smells fishy, because if it looks like a duck and it smells like a duck, I promise you it's not a rhinoceros, and have a wonderful, amazing, prosperous, but more important, happy and healthy 2020. So going into this week, you know, going into this week, again, look, maybe we have three days left, right? We have a couple of days left in the market. Just look for value, okay? Just look for value. Can the market continue going up? Probably, maybe. Who the hell knows? Do we really know, okay? Friday, there was a lot of weakness in some beta names, but again, are they really, really weak, right? Nvidia is having a monster, monster run. It has pulled back the last three, four days. Is it really, really weak? Apple's had a monster, monster run. You could turn around and say, well, I'll put an inverted hammer. It's probably going to back Tesla in the next two days. Okay. Who cares? Amazon had a phenomenal run, phenomenal run for two days, but put in an inverted hammer, which is, again, showing softness for the next couple of days. Can it pull back for the next couple of days? Absolutely. Same thing with all these names, Facebook and Tesla, right? Again, do you really want to go along Tesla? I mean, the arrogance of some of these bets, okay? The stock has gone from 320, okay? 320 to 435 in two weeks. And the arrogance of some people betting 500 next week's calls, really 500 next week's calls, okay? Maybe it does. Maybe it doesn't. But again, these are all signs that the euphoria, right? The Kool-Aid is being not only sipped, okay? It's being chugged and people are helping you lift the jug. So be very, very cautious, okay? Look for value. Look for areas of the market that stocks are still coming off the bottom, still coming off the range areas. Those are the names you can swing, okay? Don't look at the stocks that put in a 30, 40, 50% move in two weeks. The value has gone there. This is all continuation. This is all the prudent, you know, the prudent idiot theory, which basically says you're looking for a bigger idiot than you to pay a higher price than you did. So it's very, very easy to get caught up in all this, okay? But it's so hard to recover if you don't know what's happening. So please, for new traders, again, if you've never picked anything up for me for the entire duration of you've been watching these videos or any content that I've ever provided, just trust me. Stay safe. Safe than sorry. So if tonight instead of you waking up tomorrow morning saying isn't Monday, just relax, relax. Are your positions doing well? Are you starting to see some tendencies of disconnect, how the stocks were acting last week with a previous week? Do you want to put on some protection? Do you want to put on something like a safety net that in case something does happen, at least you are protected, your money is locked in, then you can make decisions technically and not emotionally. So for all you guys who are joining us for next year, again, business as usual, there are no predictions. There are no anticipation. There are no emotions. There are no expectations as business as usual. We don't trade because the markets open. We trade because there is value. Guys, have a happy new year everybody. God bless you all. I love you all. And with God's help, we will see each other all in 2020. God bless. Congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading. You're one step closer to owning your future and achieving the success you desire. Want daily trade ideas directly from Dan? 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