 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network It was a true delight to have baseball back in our lives yesterday all the way from 1 p.m Eastern until basically bedtime, so that was fun Which kind of makes today a bit more of a come down because there are no games until 640 p.m Eastern and you know just five games total so a bit of a bummer in that regard but still with just five games There are still some bets that I like over a fandall sportsbook. We're gonna run through those and then Also talk about some NASCAR got the Cup series and Xfinity series in Richmond and the truck series in Texas We'll run through all those here today to get you ready for what should be a fun weekend This is covering the spread right here on the fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim sauna saying a senior writer and analyst for a number fire calm here to preview Friday's MLB Slate breaking down money lines strikeout props and a homerun prop. I like for today Talking about those and also talking again about NASCAR Across this weekend if you are here looking for some final four discussion both in the men's and the women's side Those podcasts are already up over on the number fire or the covering the spread podcast feed So if you want men's breakdown from dr. Ed Feng a women's breakdown from a Justin Carter find those by searching for Covering the spread wherever you get your podcast hit subscribe Anything like what you hear leave us a five-star rating. We appreciate those of you who have done so already also these podcasts do go up over on the fandall youtube page as well Grand slams no hitters and double plays are back and there's no better place to get in on the nlb action Then fandall america's number one sportsbook. 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They're effectively the same thing But one more aggressive kind of assuming that the rule changes don't change a whole lot From last year to this year whereas the other one Bakes in a bit more volatility so kind of running bold to see which one Which one is going to give me a better read Early on the year the way that I want to play things is Identifying spots where both moneyline models agree There is value on a game and I play things a bit safe like that early on when my confidence in the model is a bit lower There is one game across tonight where I am showing value over a fan dual sports book And that is the white socks and the astros. I like the astros moneyline Which is minus 146 right now now I would mention this number has moved The white socks or the astros rather were minus 162 earlier on today That is now minus 146 so clear some interest in the white socks here But as of right now the implied odds 59 percent For the astros to win the less aggressive model hasn't been 65 percent So I'm showing value and people disagree. So I would hold off on betting this maybe, you know, see where the market goes It's 146 now if you open up your sports book app and see it's minus 140 Maybe keep holding off seeing if you can get a better number later on But I do think that 146 is a good number and one that I would like to get despite the fact it seems like People out there do disagree a lot of this is because I have faith in Christian Javier He was awesome down the stretch last year especially When he started leaning on his slider more and that's good for strikeouts sliders are a great pitch for that But for Javier specifically it was also great for hard contact His hard hit rate allowed in those 12 outings with more sliders was just 32 percent That's a very good number for a guy who is leaning quite a bit on a slider He's facing the white socks here. They're active roster last year a 95 wrc plus against righty's a 132 iso So Javier does let up a lot of fly balls But they don't tend to be that well struck and this offense against righty's not super powerful So I feel good about the astros despite their loss last night despite the way the market has moved here I'm going to bet them at minus 146 But again, try to get a read on this market try to look around see what other books have on the on the astros here Get a read on that But I do think that uh minus 146 a good value for the astros right now I also like a strikeout prop in this specific game and you know If i'm on the astros money line it makes sense that the bet i'm looking at is the under on land slid now Right now over at fendual sportsbook Under six and a half is minus 160. This is balanced all around this morning. It was minus 146 then it moved to Minus 136 and apparently some money is coming back on the under so it's back down to minus 160 Which means you are paying a pretty hefty penny to take the under here the implied odds at minus 160 are 61 percent so I can understand if you want to shop around and look elsewhere to see if you can find a better number on that But I do think that The under is still in play here despite it being minus 160 But I understand if you want to step off. I have lin projected for 5.2 strikeouts Which is why I'm so okay laying a bigger number on the under at six and a half. It's pretty well below that number last year For whatever reason lin was not as big of a strikeout guys. He had been previously He did cut back on a sinker usage over his final 10 starts and when I see that I typically think it's in an effort to increase strikeouts, but even then Lin's strikeout rate was just 24 percent We saw a pitch in the wbc, which likely means he stretched out I wouldn't worry about pitch count here in terms of if you want to bet the over But he is facing the astros. He is on the road The astros active roster a 19 strikeout rate last year versus righties And when you combine that with my thoughts on the money line These bets play well together now You can't combine them in the same game parley over on faddle because they meshed too well almost almost But I do think that individually they are good bets. So lin minus 160 That that is a lot again 61 implied odds on that or 62 implied odds to round up That is a lot to pay So between the two despite the way the market has moved I would prefer to go with the money line on the astros at minus 146 But I do think there is value on lin at under six and a half at minus 160 as well Now as we discussed last year here on the show, I don't typically do a lot of home run props I tend to leave that to tom vekio Dfs underscore tom because he does a great job with those But there is a home run prop I like for today and that's colton wong at plus 750 For the mariners taking on the guardians and wong is not like a huge power guy now regardless being such but He's facing off with hunter gaddis hunter gaddis In the miners last year let up a massive fly ball rate and when he came to the majors for a very small sample Let up a lot of hard contact there as well. That could get better this year for sure I mean he's you made the guardians rotation for at least now so I think that we could potentially see Maybe he steps up maybe improves this year, but wong Improvement last year for him too versus righty's his iso last year was 211 That was his career high against righty's by a pretty good margin His 39.8 percent growl ball rate was also his lowest and he doesn't strike out a whole lot So she'll put the ball in play did so better authority last year He had 14 home runs against righties. So it's not like wong went bananas or anything But he is capable of going yard We saw wong hit second last night, which means right behind julio rodríguez. I had a pretty good spot in this order I like that setup so I'm not going to do home run picks every day here on the show Especially if we have a larger slate where I can talk about more money law and talk about more strikeout props Only one of each for today though So not super often we'll dive into the home run prop market But I do like this one colton wong at plus 750 over at fan dual sports books So if you're looking for some baseball bets for today day number two like the astros money line minus 146 Lance lin under six nas strikeouts minus 160 and then colton wong at plus 750 To go yard for the mariners that's going to wrap up baseball for today But let's talk about some nascar because it's a fun weekend in nascar because we've got the cup series and the Excinity series over in richman the truck series is in texas and I do think there are some good decent value bets in all of those on the cup series side I'm showing value in only a couple of outrides and those outrides are Um on joey legano who struggled quite a bit in phoenix and ryan blaney who is terrible enrichment So i'm okay v tilling my model and saying i'll pass. Thank you very much But in the top 10 market, I think we can find a pretty good amount of value there now. What's interesting is that Most of the value I see is on studs really good drivers with very short odds and That can be scary because in order to profit more you need to put more on it But I think that with how low chaos how little chaos there is enrichment I do feel like that distribution That uh that chaos factor is being under accounted for in the top 10 market specifically So the guys i'm showing value on right now kyle larson minus 240 if and will sport spoke kevin harvick minus 230 denny hamlin minus 230 and then joey legano At minus 160. I will take legano top 10. I'm just having a harder time talking myself into The win bet at 14 to 1 Now looking at these guys specifically I've got larson's top 10 odds around 74 percent his implied odds at minus 240 closer down to 70 percent it's not a huge gap there, but it is enough and With kevin harvick his top 10 odds here are 74 percent as well Same for hamlin and the implied odds for harvick and hamlin 70 percent as for legano implied odds of minus 160 or 61.5 i've got him Pretty well above that so though again my model is admittedly too high on him so it is a bit odd but It's just really hard to turn down The way things shake out here and we look at these four drivers specifically They are four drivers on big teams typically successful teams less so at harvard with steward haas racing, but With larson harvick and hamlin all three of those guys Very good at phoenix the holding race we've seen so far in this lower downforce package non-road course edition They were all very good there larson and harvick battling out for the win Hamlin ran well the entire day had issues on the final restarts and then rex cross chastain But he was very fast there legano is not fast there, but typically does run pretty well richman So you get guys on good teams at a track where the good teams tend to rise towards the top There is minimal chaos these guys outside of legano ran well in phoenix I think it all adds up Really well you look at these guys historical top 10 rates and relevant equipment and outside of larson They've got top 10 rates around 80 to 85 percent So when their implied odds are 70 74 percent or 70 percent or for legano 61 percent I do think it makes a lot of sense As far as outrides, I'll probably be holding off there until we get some data from practice on saturday As soon as we get practice in on saturday Um, but I think that the place I'd want to go right now is the top 10 markets So again spots I like for the nascar cup series of richman's uh larson minus 240 Harvick minus 230 hamlin minus 230 and then legano At minus 160 on the extended series side of things again also richman's there is one outright that I like here And that is on coal custer who is 10 to 1 to win richman over at fan dual sports book Custer was pretty good on this track type in the cup series It was probably I would argue his best track type and we saw steward haas racing Be fine at this track type with rally herbst and herbst I is not as talented. I wouldn't say it's custer. He showed improvements at times But I think that custer is a better driver So if they were okay with herbst on this track type, they should be really good with coal custer Now he does have very tough competition. My model loves john hunter nema check 17% win odds sammy smith 12% win odds. He was awesome at phoenix Justin all guys at 13% So it is tough But I have custer at 11.2% to win versus implied odds at 9.1% at 10 to 1 So I will take that edge and I'm fine betting coal custer outright at 10 to 1 If you want some non-outrites, I would also check out brandon jones's top five odds You can find him at william hill plus 275 He did struggle at phoenix, which is disappointing because I was on him there as well But I like him teams pretty good as well junior motorsports. So For jones, it's harder for me to see him topping Guys like nema check smith other smith Custer but for a top five that I think he's okay there So plus 275 the number on brandon jones to finish top five And I do think that is a fine one as well in the truck series also an outright that I like there And it's actually on the favorite zane smith is plus 320 at vandal sportsbook But I've got him at 27.6 percent to win versus implied odds at 23.8 percent to win The reason that I'm very high in zane smith here is because a there are no cup drivers in this field b There are no Xfinity drivers in this field like john hunter nema check It's just the truck drivers and zane smith is by my numbers Pretty much the runaway top guy He has run seven races on mile and a half tracks since the start of last year Here are the average running positions for smith in the five races He has finished in that time the average running positions have been second fourth sixth first and fifth And there were some cup drivers in a decent number of those fields So smith is in my eyes at least a monster. It's a very good driver and has insane upside I do like time a jeski a lot. He ranks second in my win sims around 12 But he's plus 450 to win I think that's a bit too close to what zane smith I think there's a bigger gap between those two guys than what the bookmakers are showing right now I love smith at plus 320. It does feel short for sure But I think that it's a good number So zane smith plus 320 to win cool custer 10 to 1 to win in the xfinity series And then the top 10 bets on harvick hamlin larson and legano on the cup series side And maybe you'll be able to add in some outrides after we see practice Hopefully we see practice on saturday as well That is all that we have here for today On covering the spread across majorly baseball and nascar, but we are back again next week monday I'll be talking about some baseball once again should have a more robust slate there Tuesday the masters brandon gaddula will be back with us talking about the masters We'll spend spend the full show talking about augusta talking about various props You can bet for the masters and much more actually monday. Sorry And they spoke we're talking about the national championship game on the men's side with dr Ed fang he'll be with me in the morning So we'll get that up pretty early for you. Hopefully before 10 a.m. Eastern So you can listen to that and get ready for The national championship game that night and then augusta and the masters will be with on tuesday more baseball coming your way on wednesday Make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast If you want to get those right as they go live to make sure you get The best odds you can find me on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast want to thank you all for tuning in for today Good luck to you with your mlb bets and with your nascar bets having fantastic weekends We'll talk to you once again on monday for the national championship This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network