 Hello everyone. Welcome to another international relations capsule for the Shankar IAS Academy. Today we will discuss the recent controversy over shooting of a Chinese flying object, maybe a balloon over US territory. This is being discussed not just because it has resulted in the shooting of what China calls a surveillance vehicle, but also because it shows that the relationship between US and China are deteriorating fast. In normal circumstances, something like this would not have assumed the proportions it did because these things do happen, balloons tend to fly over other people's territories and there is a certain chord of conduct in which you protest or even shoot down and then exchange ideas and so on and then come to some kind of a compromise and assurances that this will not happen. But the fact that there are spying aircraft or spy balloons are floating over all over the world is a matter which is very well known. In international relations, there is one principle which is respected that trusts but verifies. So you trust your friends and even adversaries. But you must always verify that they are on the right track and therefore a certain amount of verification of facts is done by all countries in the world depending on their vastness of their interests in certain regions. So between US and China, certainly these things have happened in the past and will also happen in the future. But the fact that the United States postponed, not cancelled, a visit by the Secretary of State Blinken on account of this incident was rather of an overreaction and this shows that US-China relations are not yet on a balanced scale. President Biden has been very busy dealing with Russia, Ukraine, NATO and so on. Though he has made some pronouncements on China, it would appear that he had not yet formulated his policies, whether it is an adversary or it is just a rival or it's an ordinary relationship, strategic partner, all these options remain and things are yet to be settled. And Blinken was going to, Secretary of State was going to China after 2018 and to have postponed it or cancelled it was a rather important development. So it is in this context that many people look at this incident. Does it reflect a deterioration? Does it reflect a status quo? What are these two countries going to do with each other in terms of security? These are all questions. So when the balloon was spotted as early as January 28th, they did not shoot it down immediately. It was due, after due deliberation that it was done in the sense they watched it, made sure that this is a balloon which is the size of three buses, three school buses. So they had to make sure that there were no human beings on board. They had to make sure that when you shoot the debris, it does not fall on inhabited areas. And even if it is falling in the sea, it should not fall on anything that is valuable. It should be possible for them to secure the debris and take it to the laboratories in adjacent areas. All these considerations were taken before the President gave the order to shoot. It all happened as imagined and the debris was immediately taken to the FBI laboratories. And the Chinese, of course, declared that it was not a military operation at all. It was a weather related balloon which was studying the weather in the area. But it was a sensitive area because it flew over areas where there are nuclear installations like in Alaska and also next door in Western Canada. So all these factors were taken into account when it was done. And the Chinese reacted quite strongly. And for a few days continued this discussion as to whether it was the right thing that the Chinese did by sending these balloons and whether the Americans are right in shooting at them. Was it worth affecting the relationship between the two countries? So all this was discussed and many thinkers, writers, commentators in the United States itself felt that this was an overreaction because this is something which can happen. And I believe that some more, three more balloons were shot after the first one and fourth of February, more or less in the same area. So there is a way of adjusting and tolerating some of these things. And as long as there is no evidence that they have gathered some very secure information which you can't have gone into their hands. But we must realize that today technology has grown so much that from a satellite you can even count the calories on a Coca-Cola bottle. How much calories it contains, you can read it from a satellite up there. So what is the need for any country to engage in so many activities closer to Earth when such possibilities exist? So the only explanation is that they don't want to leave anything to chance. They want their friends and enemies and everybody. They should understand them, their intentions, their activities, etc. And therefore starting from sending actual individual human spies for contacts to satellites, every methodology is employed. And they know each other so well also. So the American reaction is considered to be rather unusual and there was criticism. And interestingly, both sides, China and the United States have tried to play down the incident after it occurred. The Americans said at some stage that perhaps it may have been a benign aircraft. It may have been a balloon which probably was meant only for weather. So they soften their approach a little bit. They said that Mr. Blinken had not really cancelled the visit to China. It was only postponed but he might go there pretty soon. And these balloons which have been in the area have been shot down on the February 10th, 11th and 12th. But the fact remains that all countries capable and interested in this incident, this kind of operation, are making a lot of investment in military use of balloons. So obviously balloons are capable of doing something which is different from the other methods and that is what we should note. So whoever is in this incident occurred in the US relations lowest in the last decades relationship. And the strategy competition between US and China has also aggravated. So US had detected some balloon technology which is being deployed even in 2014. All these were known. So this another feature of this balloon was that it had rudders and propellers not simply floating in the air. It could be controlled and it could be diverted to various areas when there could be a possibility of a shootout. So it and it has the capacity also to stay in the air for long periods. And it is very difficult to detect too. So these were the factors which would have prompted them to shoot the balloon. And interestingly, this was flying at an altitude of about 60,000 feet when it was shot down. So surveillance nuclear installation is possible even from that distance. And this is the only craft we can fly at that altitude because even the Concorde is the only other aircraft which can fly at this height of 60,000 feet. So that means there is something in this balloon which is very special and which caused suspicion. So in the briefing, American briefings, they said that this fell in the ocean, an area of 2.25 kilometers extended to that. And it was meant, the Chinese had meant to demonstrate its intention and the show of force. So there are all these factors, political and strategic factors, because it is not just as simply a balloon which was floating around, but it was controllable, it was turned to radars and other equipment. And US action was considered unacceptable and irresponsible by China. So initial reaction was really strong on both sides. And China demanded that the craft should be returned. And this was just a wandering balloon. And US balloons have been crossing into Chinese territory very often and they were ignoring it. So, but some commentators say that this shows that the second Cold War that is between US and China has begun and this is part of it as it happened now. So, of course, everybody will remember that there was a shoot down of a U-2 aircraft in 1960, which was a very significant development. It had a determined effect on the Cold War and it created quite a sensation at that time. So maybe a comparable aircraft is being shot down for the first time since 1960. That's also important. But after a week or so, as I was saying earlier, the United States took a step back and played down the incident. Some commentators said that US overreacted and these could be balloons tried for commercial purposes. And the Americans even said it could be totally benign. So even that state, so that means they were basically saying that Americans themselves overreacted to the situation. And accidents like the ones earlier which had happened should not take place. In 1983, there was a Korean airline which was shot down by a mistaken identity. So, Beijing is not seeking immediate normalcy, that's quite obvious, even though the Americans stepped back a little. But US balloons have, they mentioned the US balloons which have come in the Chinese military. And they started becoming a little bit apologetic about having done this. So, China was trying to repair some stations in Europe, flying over Europe. And China's support to Russia and NATO propaganda has not gone well in the United States. And so there is a certain amount of rethinking on the part of US and China. And evidence of this is that the foreign minister of China is flying to Munich for the annual conference. And Secretary of State Blinken is also going to be there. And there is some talk of an opportunity for them to meet and also to reschedule the visit of the Secretary of State to Beijing. So, it is quite possible that this crisis of the balloons or the battle of the balloons as I call it, may kind of cool down. Because both the countries are interested in not making it into an issue that would spoil their relations in the future. So, because China has been identified with Russia in the case of Ukraine, that is a considerable flag on it in the United States. And NATO has not taken kindly to China's attitude. And therefore, it is quite possible that ironically, the shooting may result in some kind of rapprochement between US and China. Particularly if Wang Yi and Blinken meet at Munich, which is a security conference also. So, again, the State Department has stated very recently that they are interested in preserving the dialogue with China. They are saying preserving because they obviously have contact with China and they do not want this particular incident to spoil it. And trying to understand each other. And the State Department spokesman said that we do not see a conflict with China on account of this. So, it may well be a happy ending in spite of the tension that it generated between 28th October, 28th January and now when about four such balloons were shot down. So, the damage was done in a sense because the credibility was in question. What they were looking for is not yet determined that there was any strategic interest for China in the observing these installations is not very clear. So, in many words, many ways it is still unclear. But given the situation that spying really does not require every trick in the armory. But it is possible that all countries do these things depending on the particular requirement. So, there is clearly tendency to play this down and not make it affect US-China relations. And that is on the advice I think of many experts who felt that this was an overreaction. So, it's quite possible, but after the many conference, they may resume the dialogue and things may cannot better for the China-US relations. So, this was probably an error. This was probably a wrong judgment on the part of China and the United States. And now they regret the incident and they are trying to make up for the future. Thank you. US-China relations are important and it is something that you should know and the general trends are very important. So, these general trends could figure and they may ask you to identify some events which may be related to strategic thinking. Very much with the United States naturally because there was suspicion that they were also flying over Western Canada where they have some secure installations there. So, of course, the Western world completely supported the United States. Yeah, Russia has not reacted I think, but the Western world including Canada, particularly because the United States mentioned that the balloon flew over Canada. Obviously, their reaction was wrong. Well, there is nothing right or wrong as they say everything is fair in love and war. So, this is not a moral question. That's why it started by saying that this is not unusual. Even between the best friends, people do not take any chances. Even we have been accused of spying. We have accused others of spying and all that, even among friends. So, this is not unusual and therefore there's no question of right or wrong, but whether it was justified or not may be a question. And on the Chinese side whether it was justified in sending these balloons out and crossing over into other people's airspace. You can say it is wrong, but sometimes balloons can stray, go into other territories. So, whether it is necessary to shoot down or do you inform the country and ask them to divert it? So, there are so many options available. And therefore, it's not a matter of right or wrong, but of national interest. And if that national interest is affecting somebody else's security or national interest, that is the issue. That is where the judgment is to be made. And it looks that US and China have made that judgment. I have decided not to make this into a big issue as it happened at the time of the shooting. Thank you.