 This is covering the spread. Here are your hosts, Jim Sonnes and Dr. Ed Fang. What is going on everybody? Welcome on Into Covering the Spread. That's right here on the FanDual Podcast Network and numberfire.com where today we are getting you set for a huge week of college football by breaking down Michigan, Michigan State and much more with Drew Martin, who you can find in wager talk and sports grid getting his thoughts on that big game and plenty else. My name is Jim Sonnes. I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com. Joined here as always by Dr. Ed Fang, you can find his work over at thepowerrank.com. Ed, big week in Michigan this week, obviously it's in the slancing, not Ann Arbor. Otherwise we could send you off and get some like remote hits from how to game being stuff like that. But pretty exciting week. You can still, I mean, it's only an hour away. It's not very far, so. Let's do it. No, I will probably be, yeah, I'll probably be here watching it, so. Are you watching with Michigan aligned fans? I assume because you're in Ann Arbor, will there be some Spartans sprinkled in there? I mean, there's always some Spartans that infiltrate things just with the way the state goes. But I expect there'll be mostly Michigan fans and probably mostly people who bet the side too. So yes, this is a game that I've kind of been, kind of had circled on my calendar for a while. I think Michigan is pretty good, but with its feeling that the quarterback in the passing game kind of landed, Michigan has a ceiling. Don't really expect them to beat Ohio State, but I do think this is a favorable matchup for them. I think Michigan State is a little bit overrated. And you look at that they were a little bit lucky to beat Indiana with their backup quarterback, had fewer total yards than Indiana. And then the backup quarterback got benched against Ohio State last week. So just one of the reasons why, I think Michigan State's a little bit overrated. So we'll see what happens on Saturday. Yeah, we're talking about that game with Drew Martin, as mentioned, you can find him on Twitter at DrewMartinBets. You can find him on WagerTalk and SportsGrid, giving his college football takes over there. We're talking about week nine in college football. Talk about head coaching changes, the impact of that, from a betting perspective, similar to the discussion we had Drew Dinsick last week on the NFL side and get some implications and a team Drew is eyeing as a result of that right now. Tomorrow on the NFL side of things, well, Kevin Cole, a pro football focus on to preview week eight, get his thoughts on that slate, get his thoughts on underlying numbers to look at when recapping games and more. You can get that and every other podcast we do here on Covering the Spread by subscribing to Covering the Spread wherever you get your podcasts. We are an Apple podcast, Spotify, Stitcher, Google podcast, you name it, you can find us there. While you're there, hit subscribe, leave us a rating and review as well because that does help us out a bunch. Now, before we talk to Drew, gotta go back to last week and recap week number eight in college football where, Ed, you've got a big win out of your bet. Covering the past. Our guest last week on the college football side of things was Michael Rondello. You can find his work over at numberfire.com and find him on Twitter at Michael Rondello. Couple sides from Michael here. He liked UCLA minus one and a half against Oregon. Close at just a point. UCLA was down 34 to 17 and they did a rally. They made it a three point game with six and a half minutes left. They got the ball back with 255 left. Dorian Thompson Robinson gets hurt and not sure how things would have changed had he been healthy, but DJ James came in through a pick and allowed Oregon to win the game outright. Kind of tough luck with quarterback injuries which has been a theme it feels like this year, Ed, with that. Right. Well, I mean, do you see like a backup? Like he threw some good balls and we were talking about this big story, you know, upset win over Oregon and then he threw the pick and that was that. So, you know, it was one drive and I don't think it says much. I think the most interesting thing about that game was how unblockable Kevon Tibido is. No one could block him on UCLA. I don't know why they even tried to single block him on any single play in that game. You can, Draftings has odds for the first pick of the NFL draft and he's like minus 110. I think right now and with a lot of the quarterback struggling, same hall hasn't looked like the first pick. Spencer Rattler is not starting. So with that situation, I think you're kind of expecting Tibido to be that top pick for whoever's there in April. I just feel bad whenever I look at him because he's like so chiseled. Like he's 20 years old. He is 10 years younger than me and he looks like a Greek God. And like, I just can't imagine being 20 and looking like him. And I think it's like, we're talking about the college football side of things but it's kind of bad luck for Detroit that they like build this good organization. It seems like they're doing things the right way. They're tanking and it happens to be in the year where there are no quarterbacks. Like that kind of sticks. I mean, there are quarterbacks. I mean, I'm not completely down on same hall but yeah, it doesn't look particularly, it doesn't look as good as it did two months ago, for sure. It definitely does not. But whatever they do as a consolation prize, that's pretty okay too. Yeah, they do have Jared Goff and as much as I think that's a downgrade from Matthew Stafford, they are, I think they're like 10th in my passing success rate adjusted for opponent, which is a miracle. So based on number fires numbers, they have not faced a pass defense outside the top 15 yet. They've had an awful schedules in terms of like facing tough team after tough team on that side of the ball. Right. And Goff does not have any help at receiver, period. So. I mean, I'd love for Jared Goff to be their starter. I'd love it. I'd love for Jared Goff to be their starter as like, I still have that like kind of like little flame inside me that roots for him. I've divorced myself of that take, but like, you know, I'd love to see him get a shot again. Why not? Look, I feel like their pass offense numbers are going to regress, I mean, Goff's done a pretty good job. They covered against the Rams. That's all that matters. That's all that matters. Get the cover. That's all that matters. Other one from Michael was Tennessee plus 24 and a half. That spread did widen by a point, close to 25 and a half. And to Michael's credit, Tennessee kept that game close for a very long time. They had a 70 yard touchdown to bring it within seven points in the fourth quarter, but Ed, there is a reason why we don't care too much about big plays because they are fluky, hard to predict. And we saw the downsides of that later on that game, Alabama scored, Tennessee through a pick, Alabama scored again, Tennessee turned it over on downs, Alabama scored a third time. So they went by 28 to get the cover, you know, it's always possible with Alabama. I think that that makes sense, but it still, it still feels tough when you like earn that position and wind up still losing the cover on that kind of a run there. Yep, that is a bar. The one you didn't worry about a backdoor cover on because in order to get a backdoor cover, you got to score points. And I don't think Northwestern's offense ever really was going to do that. You had Michigan Lane, 23 and a half against Northwestern and it was 10, seven and a half time, but that was the most deceptive 10, seven game I have seen in my entire life. Northwestern had the big play by Hull, but like that was part of your analysis, you know, you talked about the Rutgers game where they had a couple of big plays, but like big plays are more random then that's right and stuff like that. And Michigan now gained Northwestern 457 to 233, they won by 26 and covered, but it felt like a lot worse than that. Like it felt like more lobster than 26 point game. So a cover for you that could have been even more impressive than it was. So I was, I was watching the first half of the game. I think it was 10 nothing. I think Michigan had just missed the field goal or something. And then I had to go because my kid had a soccer game and that's clearly the most important game of the weekend. And then I look, it's like 10, seven. I was like, oh, what happened? You know, you look, scroll through your phone. Ah, 75 yard touchdown run. I was like, all right, fine. That happens. And then Michigan goes down and dries. Like, all right, they'll score again. And I think they fumble. But yeah, they fumbled like a three yard line. Yeah. So, so anyways, I head off to the soccer game in a pretty bad mood, but then it all worked out. I actually didn't end up seeing the second half, but it did work out. And so, yeah, so it was 23 and a half at close. I mean, I bet it at 21 and a half. So yeah, nice to get the win. You didn't miss much and not seeing the second half. I'll put it that way. Like you would have felt good about your bet and you would have gotten those positive feelings, but like you didn't miss much from the actual game perspective. It was gross. Northwestern, like they went to their fourth string quarterback at one point. I'm not sure what Hunter Johnson's health status is. I don't know why he put them in anyway, but like, I don't know. It was a, it was a weird game. So no threat of a backdoor cover there. Easy cover for that. Easy win there. And the victory from Michigan, heading into their big game against Michigan State, which we'll discuss with Drew Martin in just one second. Again, you can find Drew on Twitter at DrewMartinBets and check him out on wager talk and sports script. But before that, hockey fans, NHL season is in full swing and Fandall is giving you a chance to get in on the action with NHL Parley Insurance. All you got to do is play, say, four plus leg Parley on NHL games between now and next Tuesday. If exactly one leg of your bet loses, get a refund and site credit. Next refund is $25 per day. Kick off the NHL season right this way by heading over to Fandall Sportsbook and placing an NHL Parley. Must be 21 plus in present Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, or West Virginia. Refund issued as non-restorable site credit that expires in seven days. Max-free fund, $25. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fandall.com. Gambling problem, call 100 Gamber or visit fandall.com slash RG in Connecticut, 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana, 1-809 with it. For confidential help, Michigan, 1-802-707-117 in Tennessee, call the red line at 1-800-899-789. In West Virginia, 1-100 Gamber dot net or in Arizona, call 1-800-NEXT-STEP to 533-42. Covering the present. Let's bring Drew Martin into covering the spread now to break down a huge week nine across college football. A lot of fun games, Drew, we appreciate the time. How are you doing today? Jim, thanks for having me. Always good to be on with you and Ed Fang, two of the nicest best handicappers out there. So always fun to talk sports betting overall and especially college football with you boys. Well, yeah, we had to get you on. We had to get a big guest for this week because the slate is pretty sick. Past couple of weeks were kind of weird, I guess, is the word I would use for college football. But from a preference perspective, are you someone who wants these big time games or do you do better when it's a down slate like we had the past couple of weeks? That's an interesting question. I would say from a fan standpoint, I'm one of these guys that locks myself kind of in the office, multiple TVs, watching the game, taking notes, getting ready for the opening lines the following day really in college football. So from a handicapping standpoint, Jim, it really doesn't matter, but from a fan standpoint, I like the big time games. It's something that got me into college football specifically is the atmosphere around the game because that's just what made me love it at first. So when I can turn on one of those games really take in that atmosphere, I guess it is something. But from a handicapping standpoint, it's all the same, man. It's get up early, it's stay up late and it's take as many notes as the normal betting person wouldn't really realize and just try to take it advantages of the inefficiencies in the market, man. And we're gonna try to take advantage of your notes here on the show for today as we talk through these games. Let's start things off here by talking more broad because we had a really fun conversation with Drew Dinsick last week on the NFL side about head coaching changes. And that weirdly this year is pertinent on the college side of things too because you got the LSU situation, the Texas Tech situation, there've been a lot of positional coaches who have gotten fired as well already which should feel like it's a deviation from the norm but how are you accounting for those things? Those in season coaching changes when you're betting on the college side here? Well, Jim, I mean changes in sports betting is the number one thing I'm looking for. So just change in general because that gives the odds makers less information, less kind of statistics with what's staying the same to make their numbers off of. So just change in general is the thing I'm looking for. So talking about coaching changes, that's one of the best things to go off of in college football because things are gonna change from that point forward. So you look at these different ones like you bring up Texas Tech, LSU, LSU being one in particular, talking about big time kind of programs. One, that's a great job. Whoever gets that next, talk about a great recruiting job. I'm sure there's guys in the NFL picking up the phone call, things of that nature. So it'll be interesting to see where LSU goes with their next hire. LSU this season in particular, going off of the Ed Orgeron news of he's gonna be let go at the end of the season. I'm actually not sure if that's a positive, if that's a negative. He's obviously got some personal, I don't wanna say issues, but just differences in what he's doing in his life. And it's affected what he's doing as a coach and LSU's kind of realized that and some off the field. I don't know what's really rumored, what's not. It doesn't matter from a handicapping standpoint. And, but it seems like the players, the locker room, Jim hasn't quit on the, and that's something to notice here because sometimes if you can find a team that's quit and just fade city, that's almost even better than finding the teams to bet on because a lot of people don't realize that but I wouldn't put LSU in that category at least as of now, that's not what I've seen. A coaching change though, Jim, I wanted to bring up that I find fascinating and it's kind of new in terms of, after COVID is Washington state and what happens there with Rollovich being shown the door not because of the vaccine, but well, that's why he was shown the door. But I'm saying from a handicapping standpoint of the assistant coaches also leaving, you talk about a hierarchy that is difficult to replace in terms of a head coach, offensive coordinator and quarterback coach. I don't know how they're going to kind of overcome that. The article's on reading is Deloria, their quarterback, you know, he's a mature guy. Even the new coaches they brought in aren't even really, I guess, approved to be coaching the players, which I find really tricky to handicap and it's really tough to find it as a positive. So I actually put the Cougars in kind of the look to fade category here going forward unless they show otherwise on the field. So that's one that maybe you can take and run with in terms of looking to fade Washington State in the next couple of weeks. Yeah, that's really interesting. Drew, is there any, you know, obviously James Franklin's name pops up with any big time job that's out there. Is there any sense, would you think that matters for Penn State team that suffered one of the most horrendous games in the history of the program last week? Sure. Those coaching rumors that, yeah, I think that that matters. I mean, if I'm a, you know, 20 year old kid and I came to a school for at least in part due to the head coach wanting him to coach me for the next four or five years and have a trajectory into the NFL. And then he kind of jumps ship. I'm sure I wouldn't like that. So I always look at it from kind of the player's point of view and how the coach is handling it. And of course, you know, if being coach speak, you know, they're all gonna say no, right? I mean, Nick Saban said he wasn't gonna be the coach of Alabama and sure enough, the best coach of college football history. So it can happen, even though no matter what they say. So yes, Ed, I don't think it's a good thing by any means, but at the same time, it might not be that bad of a thing. It's kind of dependent on each locker room. And it looks like actually Penn State, you know, if they have a healthy quarterback, you know, they're a pretty talented team. But do they? Do they what? Do they have a healthy quarterback? Oh, well, that's the question. I mean, I don't know. Yeah, I mean, they're passing numbers. I didn't see the game against Illinois, but their passing numbers were awful. Yeah, Franklin's saying that he's healthy, which I don't know how to take that, but it doesn't look like the markets are kind of reacting here because that's spread against Ohio State has moved. It's 18 and a half now. I think it was 20 and a half yesterday at one point. So it's like the markets are buying Clifford. I think it was 20 and a half. It got to 20. I didn't see that yesterday. I mean, I definitely, yeah. Maybe I'm a misremember in there. But either way, I mean, it's a, it's a tough spot for them. You know, if there is any sort of motivation shift when you're facing Ohio State, because Ohio State's playing really good football right now. I was looking at Bill Connolly's SP plus rankings at ESPN. You know, Ohio State's the number one team by SP plus right now. So we've been having this conversation, you know, who's number two team behind Georgia? And I don't know, great question. I have no idea. Those numbers have Ohio State and we're talking Michigan in a second, but how are you viewing Ohio State now, Drew? Like, do you think that they are in that upper echelon of teams right now? Oh yeah. I think the Buckeyes, you know, are one of the best teams in college football. I know that that's not saying much, Jim, but you bring up, you know, Bill Connolly's numbers. I know Ed is a friend of Bill. I really respect his work as well. And to see him have Ohio State that high, absolutely it matters to me. I mean, they've obviously got talent top to bottom on the roster, well coached team. Plus the fact it's almost a weird scenario where that lost to Oregon because it happened early and they were able to rebound off of that, Jim. It could actually be at this point in the season, almost even more bet on for the Buckeyes because they don't have as much room for air as if they were undefeated and they dropped a game and they still won the big 10, they would likely still get a playoff bid. So I think that them knowing they can't lose and, you know, looking to run up the score, which they have, they can blow teams out, they have the offense to do it. Yeah, I didn't want to make it sound by calling Penn State a talented team. Like, hey, I'm jumping on this big number, you know, plus 18, plus 19, whatever it is because I'm not. I think the Buckeyes are more of a bet on than looked for, you know, tricky spots to go the other way. Yeah, for sure. I would agree with that. So, Drew, let's move on. We are Michigan at Michigan State. Michigan was started as a three and a half point favorite as up to four and a half total of 49 and a half. Michigan State's awesome is Michigan State's offense has had some pretty massive individual outputs, but Michigan's defense has been good. What are you seeing in this game? One, it's a fascinating game, you know, from a fan standpoint, Ed. You know, looking at Michigan State overall, I love what they've been able to do. You know, you get the Nick Saban disciple at the head coach position. You get thrown at the quarterback position. Who knows how high he could go. You know, he could be taking snaps on a Sunday. I think that you get an NFL running back, good solid offensive line play. I think that Michigan State is a really good football team. Now, looking at the talent on the defensive side, Ed, I don't know. I don't know if they got the speed at the linebacker position, you know, watching them against Indiana, the Hoosiers. And I know the Hoosiers were off of a bye and Michigan State was able to win the game and actually cover by most numbers. I still took away, hey, wait a minute, maybe this Michigan State team is a step down from kind of the top notch teams in college football. That's what I took away anyway. And actually coming in and projecting out to their next game, you know, off of a bye week against Michigan at home. I was thinking to myself, man, if this is a competitively priced game, I'm gonna actually look to be on the Wolverines because I think talent-wise in the trenches, they actually might be better. And they've obviously shown, you know, their offensive talent at the skilled positions they're talking about Michigan. But sure enough, the market was on it. You know, I was kind of surprised by this number from your alma mater at getting so much respect in the betting markets because I really didn't project that out with it being in East Lansing off of a bye week. And sure enough, they were all on it. You know, these odds makers, they're pretty smart too. They got big casinos in Las Vegas for a reason. For sure, I was really hoping. Is that too big for you to take that right now, Drew, then? I haven't bet it personally. So I haven't gone one way or the other. I was looking to get on Michigan, but it is over that key number of three, you know, even over a semi-key number of four here. Yeah, I'm likely not gonna be on this one, Jim, but hey, have it on and try to learn as much as possible for both teams going forward. This is a game that I've been looking forward to for a couple of weeks, looking for value on Michigan. I was hoping it would open, you know, minus two and a half. Yeah. I did bet it at minus three and a half. I'm not sure how much value is left at this number. So definitely agree with what you're saying. So let's move to Ole Miss at Auburn here. The Auburn is two and a half point favorite, total 65 and a half. And we got Drew Martin on. We got to talk to Auburn on the show. You got the Auburn helmet over your head as well. So they got the big win against Arkansas. Then they had a buy. Did you see anything in that Arkansas game that gives you confidence going forward that they can replicate that? Or do you think it was kind of some fluke-ness? Or do you think about the Auburn team after that win against Arkansas? Sure, Jim. And actually watching Auburn, I took something away from the Penn State game. So even going before Arkansas in that, I know that a lot of the people watching, and with good right, we're talking about, you know, that third down to fourth down and Penn State missed something. And it seemed like the announcers were just like drilling that in. But actually I thought the big plays in some of the critical calls went Penn State's way. Not saying it in a way like, oh, Auburn should have won the game. It's just things I took down for, how good is this Auburn team? And I thought that they went toe-to-toe with Penn State, meaning if they play that game 10 times, I think that Auburn probably wins half of them. Now Penn State did win the game, but a lot of times when that happens, I look for the team that lost the game on national television, you know, prime time Saturday night, a lot of eyeballs on it. And I look to be betting on the team that lost the game. That happened to be Auburn. And sure enough, the next week, they looked really bad against Georgia State, a prime letdown spot. They almost let one loss become two against the Sun Belt opponent. They got lucky to get out of there. And that actually was a huge bet on for me. So I've made a little bit of money betting on Auburn here since that timeframe. And when you look at Ole Miss, this game on Saturday, a couple of things I take away. Auburn's won five straight in the series, Jim. They've kind of had Ole Miss's number, four and one against the spread as well, going back five years. Auburn, let me go back to the schedule setup, Jim, for this heavily favors War Eagle here, the Auburn Tigers, because they're off of a well-needed bye week. They just played what, LSU, Georgia, and that Arkansas game that you bring up. So three tough opponents and then a bye week. Ole Miss, on the other hand, had a really early bye week. They played at Tuscaloosa, at Alabama. Then they played Arkansas, at Tennessee, LSU. Now they're having to play in Jordan Hare on a Saturday night. This is a really, really difficult spot for Ole Miss. It's something that I actually bet Auburn minus one off the open. I missed the pick-up price, I believe, is how it opened. But I did get it at minus one. And sure enough, we've seen it, what, minus two now, I believe it fandals to even minus three at some shops now. You always love to see the market go with you, but it doesn't mean everything by any means. You can lose those bets as well. I guess sharper money does lose in college football. But the thing is, Auburn off of a bye week has been a great bet, Jim. It really has. But that was under a previous administration and Gus Malzahn. So you got to go back and do a little bit more research going back to Boise State here, Brian Harson. Him off of a bye, talking about Harson at the head coach for Boise State, was 10 and two. They looked really good off of a bye in multiple years there. So actually, I'm going to look for that to translate here to Auburn off of the bye week at home, at night, and facing an Ole Miss team in a tough spot. Granted, Ole Miss is the better quarterback. Coaching-wise, heck, you might even give it to Ole Miss, too. But off of a bye, I think that that favors Harson. And Auburn has the much better defense, especially up front. So yeah, I'll take the home team under a field goal. I think Auburn's the side in this one. Well, I think the other tough thing with the schedule analysis is that, like, it's not just that Ole Miss played those tough games. They were tough games. Like Mac Carrell was beat up after that Tennessee game. I think that when you go from that, go to facing LSU right away the next week and now have this game, that all kind of compounds. You don't get that rest to, like, to revitalize your body. And it's just really difficult to have that quick turnaround and have big game after big game when your quarterback is so physical in the way he plays. Absolutely. And yeah, we talked about health of the quarterback position for Penn State. Mac Carrell running around making plays like that. That's a healthy Mac Carrell against Tulane, against the early opponents that he played and making those plays, getting into the Heisman talk. Now we've actually seen, even against Tennessee, those were two of the top five teams in terms of plays per game. I was on the over thinking that that would be, I took the loss, but one thing I learned from that is, hey, maybe pump the brakes on this Ole Miss offense because everybody knows about it, first of all. So it's usually tough to make money betting on that. As you guys know, when everybody knows about something, it's usually, that's the time you probably need to jump off of those trends. And sure enough, with him being banged up, I don't know. I don't know if the value's really there in betting Ole Miss over the total and betting Ole Miss anymore. Yeah, the SEC is certainly tough. I think that's why they have Cupcake Saturday coming up soon, right? Yeah, hopefully. We need it in the SEC, you know? Big 10 needs that too. What, does the Big 10 have Cupcakes too? Maybe a Mac week or something like that? Yeah, we got, well, we got Maryland and Rutgers, right? Maryland and Rutgers is your Vanderbilt? Hey, Northwestern's pretty close, you know. Hey, Northwestern's been tough every year. Yeah, Northwestern took it to Auburn in the Citrus Bowl. I was there. They did. It was one of the, like, 500 people there, right? Yeah, yep. Yeah, for sure. All right, so Drew, let's move on to the American. Got SMU at Houston. It's a pick-up right now, Fandall Sportsbook, total of 61 and a half, you know, both these teams have great records, but underwhelming schedules. What are you seeing in this game? Sure, I mean, great game. You talked about it, you know, at the top, the AAC with what these two teams combining for 13 and one overall. SMU was a team I had circled early in the season, Ed. As a bet-on, you know, you get, Levitt is a defensive coordinator position. They can actually play a little defense and obviously offensively. Both of these two teams very, very good. Just looking down at the, you know, who each team's played. I love that you said it, you know, underwhelming schedules. Sometimes in the AAC, it kind of depends who you're playing. The AAC is kind of almost like the SEC, you know, like really good teams within at the same time. If you can kind of navigate it right, you can get into week four, five, six, and still, you know, some of those really good records are actually a little bit fraudulent looking. So, especially on the SMU side, you know, who they've been able to beat, what, Tulane, Navy, USF. That's the last three games they've played. So that's three wins they're stacking up with not a whole lot of substance in my opinion. Houston on the other side of things, playing those three same teams. So kind of getting some wins, but I don't know. You know, betting this one, it's another game I haven't bet personally here. Sidewise, I probably would go with SMU even though they are on the road, five and two against the spread. The odds makers or the betting marketplace is kind of underpriced them a little bit more than the Houston Cougars on the other side. I think you get a little bit better quarterback play and the better defense with SMU. So if you needed a bet, I would probably be on the Mustangs, but one I haven't bet personally. With college football, you never need a bet. You can always find someone somewhere else where you can find some value. That's the luxury here. You don't have to force it with anything. So it should be a fun game to watch. Similar to the Michigan game right now, we'll see how those play out. But Drew, as mentioned, we got like 100 games we can go through. You mean you talk about all of them effectively over on Wager Talk. So where are you seeing value this week facing the odds of Fandall Sportsbook? Sure. I mean, a couple of games that I find fascinating, handicapped, I could just rattle them off real quick if you want, Jim. UNC and Notre Dame, 62, I believe is the total at Fandall with Notre Dame minus the three in the hook at home. A real interesting scheduling caveat is this is the four straight opponent off of a bye that Notre Dame has played, Jim, which going back, it's maybe something how Notre Dame in the AAC got into cahoots with playing a quasi-conference schedule. Maybe Notre Dame didn't think about this, but the AAC has really taken it to them giving their ACC full members the bye week before playing the Irish. I think that's going to hurt long term. So going into this week, I was like, man, Notre Dame is a lot better talented team, but after that happening four straight weeks, going up against a good quarterback into well coached team, it actually took me off the Irish side and even maybe even more so at a key number here, three and a half towards UNC to go on the road and stay tough. Also another one actually interestingly enough in the ACC, the Miami Hurricanes and the Pitt Panthers. This is another one. I went into this, you know, we just saw Pitt knock off Clemson, a lot of eyeballs on that one. First time Clemson was what an underdog since 2016, I believe, and sure enough Pitt wins and covers. Now they're having to lay what 10 at home against the Miami team that, you know, a lot of people were writing them off. I'm actually talking to you here from South Florida and I'll tell you, you know, it was like three weeks ago, it was, hey, Diaz needs to be showing the door, it's over. Now people are talking, you know, on sports stock radio, hey, maybe Miami has an outside shot at the playoff. I'm not saying that personally, that's just how kind of crazy they are down here in South Florida. But when you start looking under the hood, Jim, at this Miami team, sure enough, going into their bye week two weeks ago, they did not look good at all. You know, quarterback out, meaning Derek King was injured. They had a freshman in Van Dyke. He was a highly recruited kid, but he didn't look that good coming out. And sure enough, they had the bye week. Rhett Lashley is their offensive coordinator. So going back to Gus Malzahn being very good off of a bye week, I knew to circle that and be like, hey, watch out here. This might be in a very improved offense for Miami. Since the bye week, two straight covers, we just talked about UNC might be a bet on team. Well, against Miami, they went up there and scored over 40 points against UNC on the road off the bye week. And then just last week, this past Saturday, beating NC State very surprisingly, 31 to 30, over 400 yards of offense in both of those. So with a young quarterback off of a bye week, that's something that, you know, another, I don't know, I call it sharp angle, but something I circled to actually look to bet on because a lot of times in the betting marketplace, people aren't really noticing that kind of stuff. So Miami is actually one that I have circled. And usually that's not the case. When the Miami Hurricanes go up to the Northeast, you know, in late October, November, that's the situations I look to go against them. In this case though, especially pit off of that huge win against Clemson, I think getting doubles at some sports book right now with the Miami Hurricanes. I know it looks ugly, but that might be an ugly barking dog there with the Keynes. So Drew, that's awesome. I wanted to ask you, we're in the ACC, my numbers of life Clemson every week as they've dropped precipitously. That hasn't been really working out. Can Clemson get it together? I don't think so, Ed. I think something's wrong. And obviously, you know, sometimes you look at the, as you know this, you know, the straight up record everybody looks at, but look at the ATS record. What, 0-1-7? They're the biggest money burners in all of college football here. And how is it gonna change? I don't see it changing. I mean, I'm surprised that they've stuck with, I call them DJU, this long. I mean, obviously you need a spark. You need something to happen there. You need to change something up because it's really not working. And until I see it, Ed, you know, we've talked about this before. It's not like, oh, this week is where it's gonna change. No, I don't like doing that. That's catching a falling knife in the stock market. I'll give up the unit of loss and see it with my own eyes where they do turn it around and then maybe look to jump on them. Not like, you know, pick the spot where they turn it around. I don't like doing that type of handicapping. So no, Clemson is Fade City for me. Yeah, defense really got victimized at hit. You know, we talked, everyone's been talking about the offense, but the defense didn't do their part last week. Well, you're right Ed. Everybody's concentrating on the offense. That's another thing, you know, not enough people concentrating on the defensive side of things, but you can kind of also look at it like, hey, we're playing this, you know, good defense, holding what, going back to week one, holding the best team in college football to what 10 points losing that game, week after week after week, playing at least decent defense at some point that usually kind of fades away and the defense kind of throws up their arms, you know, and we might be seeing that with Clemson. Yeah, a fascinating team. It's unfortunate the way that it's gone, but hey, I mean, yeah, I agree with you where it's okay to miss out on like the rock bottom and not be totally in there. You want to hit that inflection point after the inflection point hits, then you're good, but not sure we've gotten there just yet with Clemson inflection point. So I think I agree. No, it's a great point, Jim. Yeah, because I've learned that the hard way, you know, losing money being like, oh, this is where they're going to turn around and sure enough, three weeks later, three lost bets. So I don't want to see something first. And I have not seen something just yet. So I'd agree with Drew there. That is Drew Martin. Check him out on Twitter at Drew Martin Beds. You can find them, of course, on WagerTalk and on SportsGrid.drew. We appreciate the time. Good luck to you this week and enjoy all the Austin College football. I hope that we get. Thanks for having me, Jim. Ed, always a pleasure, man. Best of luck. Hope your cash in was well, buddy. So enjoy the games this weekend, guys. Thank you. Yeah, thanks, man. Covering the future. One final big thank you to Drew Martin for swinging on by and breaking down his thoughts on a big weekend in college football for week number five. Week number nine, make sure you check out Drew's work at WagerTalk and SportsGrid. And one thing we discussed there with Drew, Ed, was this Penn State, Ohio State game, it's like coming week. It is a decently big spread, 18 and a half points spread right now. What's your read on that game? Yeah, I mean, I think this is kind of interesting because, you know, I mean, Penn State has been a team that I've liked most of the year. That huge win at Wisconsin to open the season. My number is like Penn State heading into that Iowa game. And, you know, I think they probably win that game if Sean Clifford doesn't get hurt. And so things have been fine with Penn State until last week where they somehow lost to Illinois as a 24 and a half point favorite. And there was a lot of problems in that game. Like Illinois had a 54.7% rushing success rate. We talked about how Clifford might not be healthy. And the reason I say that is because Penn State had a 21.4% passing success rate. Going into the Iowa game, you know, they were ninth in my adjusted passing success rate, which I thought was a remarkable achievement because Clifford had not led an offense that had been that good in previous years. So, you know, is he hurt? Is he not? We'll see. And now they play Ohio State. And this is a team that had a rough beginning of the season. They lost to Oregon, but they've really come back to being Ohio State in the last three big 10 games. You talked about Connelly's numbers. I have Ohio State second. I'd only make them about a point and a half underdog to Georgia at this point. His, you know, his model tends to be even more aggressive than mine is about moving teams. And certainly Ohio State deserves to have made that jump. So, my numbers like Ohio State by about 23 in this game, that is a pretty big number. The system, the model is certainly moved based on what happened last week. I tend to like betting Ohio State. I think they're pretty good. I, their offensive numbers look pretty incredible. And I did, I bet this was 17 and a half earlier this week. It's at 18 and a half a lot of places that I looked right now. I still think there's potential value in that, but after I bet it, you know, it kind of occurred, someone was like, oh, you know, that's a really big number. They always play close. And I personally don't care what's happened in the game, previous games between Ohio State and Penn State. What I look at is that like, you know, Penn State's a top 20 program in the country. And that's not what my numbers say right now because of this game against Illinois, but that, you know, more than likely maybe that's a one game fluke, right? So if you're not gonna, if you're not gonna bet Ohio State, I get that because you think, oh, there's no way Penn State's really dropped out of the top 25. Preseason, I would have made this Ohio State about 11 point favorite in this. You know, you can imagine it being somewhere around two touchdowns. And then, you know, are we overreacting to this one game? Now, the model that gives Ohio State by 23, that is for sure the, you know, my most accurate model in terms of predicting point spreads in games. Also, when I only look at data from this year, that also predicts Ohio State by about 20. So there's a lot of metrics from, and that's with all the filth of Ohio State's defense, those first three games of the season. So when you put that all together, you know, I think there is value in Ohio State. I don't know if this number is getting any higher. Maybe it will. So anyways, I think the point is I bet 17 and a half. I like that. I'm a little uneasy though. And I can definitely, I can argue the other side as well. Yeah, I think that it makes sense to be a bit wary of it because like, you know, Clifford, they said that he's getting healthier, but we haven't seen that on the field yet. So it's kind of taking James Franklin at his word, which not so much that's worth honestly. He just changed Asians, right? I read that this morning. Yeah, he did. So like there was like the buzz about LSU and he gave like the traditional like, oh, I'm focusing on, I think that what he said was in folks in Illinois, this is on Monday, of folks in Illinois, but the Ohio State game and like that's probably just a slip of the tongue. There's nothing to read into that, but like it was pretty funny that that happened. The same day he like fires his agent. Oh, so he had to fire his agent, interesting. He changed agency. I don't know what the deal was, but like to have that occur that same day, it's like, you know, there's the Mike Tomlin rebuttal of like yesterday with like the USC job. James Franklin was the polar opposite in terms of like trying to deflect off-room and stuff like that. Yeah. And it's also interesting to me that the LSU job is so much better. I think in my eyes with then the USC one in terms of money that's going into those programs from television contracts and things like that. Yeah, the Coach O.J. situation definitely changes everything with these top candidates. For sure, it definitely does. And James Franklin, you know, has flaws, but if you look at like, but Elliot's numbers of the blue chip ratio, he can recruit, he can get dudes to the program. So we'll see. I'm pretty sure, I haven't run my numbers on this, but I'm pretty sure Conley had them as a top 10 program over the last five years, if not longer. And I mean, they've basically been on average a top 10 program while he's been there. And so, you know, you can pick about little things, but they've been pretty good. They've been very good. And that matters a lot. Yeah, absolutely. So we'll see how that plays out. Right now, 18 and a half the number on that one for Iowa State, but as I said, you can see both sides of that one for sure. I'm going to the NFL side of things from I cover in the future and talking about 49ers bears. I think you want to bet this one now, because it was a three and a half minus 104. That's up to minus 110. I thought there was a chance initially we might get a three here because it was minus 104. It seems like with Clio McBean ruled out, that is no longer in place. So I would take this one right now and bet the 49ers minus three and a half at minus 110 at Fandall Sportsbook. So to me, I'm comfortable laying the points here because I think we're overreacting to one bad game from the 49ers offense. They were terrible against Indy, but even with that game being included, there's still 21st and schedule adjusted passing efficiency based on number fires metrics. Obviously 21st is not great, but the Chicago Bears, a whole heck of a lot worse. They are currently the worst passing offense in football, according to number fires metrics, even worse than the Jets somehow. I'm not sure that was possible, but it is. Chicago's average dropback is losing 0.14 expected points and average dropback for San Francisco is gaining 0.11. So that's a difference of 0.25, which is a massive, massive gap, probably bigger than the three and a half points spread. Chicago should improve as the season goes along because you don't project minus 0.14 going forward for any team, but San Francisco could also improve too given the baseline of that offense, given the talent that they've got. Trent Williams didn't play last week, aggravated ankle injury. Sounds like he might be able to go this week. He's day to day right now. If they get Trent Williams back, then we should expect a better showing out of the passing game and the ground game as well. I've got the 49ers fair by six and a half here. So there is a good amount of value at three and a half. And again, I think the odds of getting to three are now pretty much gone with the Clio Mack news. So I would be okay betting this one right now, laying the three and a half on the 49ers and pulling the trigger at minus one 10. Ed, what are your numbers saying here between the bearers and the 49ers? Yeah, I mean, I have San Francisco by about three. So it says it's roughly fair on this one. It's a tough game. I mean, I remember what, I didn't see the bearers game this past week, but two weeks ago, I mean, Justin Fields made some incredible throws. And I think it just kind of shows you how good you have to be to even suck in the NFL. Right. Like all these guys can make a throw. Right. They can't do it nearly as consistently as Tom Brady. And, you know, and Fields also has some just bonehead throws that got picked as well. So yeah, I don't know. I don't know. I have no idea what to think about that game, especially with the struggles with the Niners and they don't really have a backup option with Lance being hurt. Right. Yeah. So it's, yeah, it's probably kind of a stay away from me. Yeah, I think that for me, it is partly anchored in the fact that I had a pretty high opinion of the 49ers passing offense in terms of efficiency going into the year. And that's still, you know, a decent part of this number. But I think even when I look at just the 2021 numbers and still would push me towards San Francisco here in this game, so I will lay to three and a half with the 49ers, much more NFL talk coming up tomorrow uncovering the spread. Well, Kevin Cole, a pro football focus on get his thoughts on the week eight spreads. We'll talk about Justin Fields with him as well. Talk about other stuff with Kevin and get his read on those games. You can get that by subscribing to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts. And again, while you're there, leave us a rating and review. Big thank you to Drew Martin, our guest here for joining us for today. Breaking down his thoughts in this week's college football games. Find him on Twitter at DrewMartinBets and check him out on WagerTalk and on SportsGrid. Ed, what is going on for you this week over at the PowerAid? I had Andy Molliter of the deep podcast, one of our frequent guests here on the football analytics show. We had a really nice conversation. He gave me some nice whiskey bourbon rye recommendations. We had a very conversation about books too. That was a lot of fun. But most importantly, we talked about the NFL and we talked about his model, his process, some bets for the week. So that was a ton of fun. Check that out at the football analytics show. My sports betting email newsletter is something that I think you'll find a lot of value out of. We also do Seven Nuggets Saturday. I do that with Edward E. Gross. So we try to summarize energy news and bets people are making, sharp people are making. So that's a free service. You can get that at thepowerrank.com. And with the Andy interview, Dr. Erickie, you're tweeted out saying, I'm excited to listen to this because of Andy's accent. And I was like, oh, wow, this is the same thing that I experience every time because Andy is from or lives in the same part of Minnesota I'm from. So I get to feel like I'm back home and stuff like that. So that is the extra incentive. If you are a Minnesotan to listen to Andy, get that. He's actually got more of a Northern Minnesotan accent if I had to like pinpoint it, but like. Yeah. He talks differently than you and Dr. Eger do. Yeah, well, yes. Yeah. Erick's from La Crosse, where he lived in La Crosse. He might be originally from Wisconsin or from Minnesota. I think he's originally from Wisconsin. He went to college in Wisconsin. Oh, sorry. He taught at La Crosse, which is on the border. But that's Southern as well. Like I would always drive through La Crosse and I was going to Evanston from Minnesota. Like all the time. I was in La Crosse a lot. But I think Andy might originally be from up north just because like that's, if I'm tracking the accent, geolocating the accent, that's what it is, but like it's nice to get the Minnesota accent back. So get the whiskey and bourbon recommendations and then stay for the accent on Andy as well. You can find at on Twitter at the PowerRank and find Ed's work at thepowerrank.com and find the interview with Andy Molitor at the football analytics show, which I'll be checking out later on today. I am on Twitter at Jimsonus, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the FanDuel Podcast Network at FanDuel Podcast back once again tomorrow to break down NFL week number eight. We'll talk to you then. This has been covering the spread right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network. What's up guys? This is Jordan Spieth. If you're watching this video, please like and subscribe to the FanDuel YouTube channel.