 anybody watching, welcome. Group mind mapping and brainstorming exercise. So I guess the goal that I was going to show you on the screen, but I can't now, is developing a robust personal strategy to deal with likely ecological, social, economic disruptions in, let's say, about 20 to 30 years from now. A cheery and pleasant topic as any. I will not stop there. No, but well extremely important, right? So I think that's all of us are here with that idea that, OK, we know climate change is real, that there's going to be some unpleasant things. You can either ignore it or you can try to, like any other threat, start dealing with it and think about preparing it. Because any step you take now is a step that won't hurt. So what I would like to do is, I'm assuming, let's just start with that, I'm assuming we are all familiar with the basic climate change stuff, right? So let me just quickly summarize. We're thinking, if you look at the science, increasingly severe weather. So usually wherever you live, imagine what you have, but then worse. So climate change means more intense oscillations, higher highs, lower lows, shit being more frequent, stuff like that. In some extreme cases, plausible that things flip into very different weather patterns. If you're in a wet area, it might become very dry. These things are possible, but for the sake of our sanity, let's keep it in the more extreme thing. So what I would like to do as a first step is to imagine that 20 to 30 years. Just kind of think for yourself, OK, where am I? How old am I? Because we're all different, right? And I'll be close to 20, 50 or put me close to 70, 75 even. So I'll be an old man, older than now. So I might, and I see younger people as well, for you, might be later when an adult might be then. So imagine yourself. You're there, and what's outside the window? What do you see? And I know we've come from different places, so if you're living in Switzerland, you will see different things around you, maybe molten glaciers. You might see mountains that have no vegetation, because the rain has stripped them off. If you live in Holland, you might have been flooded once or twice because of too much rain. So OK, just for the physics, for those that are from Netherlands, the expectation, the science I know is 20 to 50, don't worry about it. This is the last place you want to worry about flooding sea level, because we are obviously at a very low place. If you look at the specifically Dutch situation, the level of protection we have, institutional systems in place, and the physical everything we got, we'll find for the next 150 years is 3, 4, 5 meters, we'll be fine. It's not a good. But it costs a lot. I'm strictly physical. I'm saying from the physical perspective, you will not likely be flooded in Holland from the sea. You will, however, be much more likely flooded by rain. Think Dutch. But the human population actually lives very close to the sea. I fully understand, and my point is try to think of where you live, because if you're trying to think about strategy, what do I do now? Because I cannot help Bangladesh directly right now. They're fucked no matter what badly. Indonesia and you don't want to be in Miami, either, all of those places. But I'm not there, and that's not. I can't control that. I do live minus 4 and 1 half meters below sea level in a polder. So for me, rain, for example, locally is a huge problem. If the pumps that evacuate my polder are broken, I am going to swim. So I would like to collect from, just think about it. What kind of weather, what do I have today, and what do I think? Can you use one or two, three words so we can group them together to see what is the range of things we might expect? Right? So I'll just give you a couple of minutes. And then just get away, and I'll collect your picking out, and I'll start picking out. Claudia, do you have a mask? Can you copy some tape so I can stick these things up in a second? Yeah, right, sir. I'm sorry, I'm just not awake. I'll add here, this is tipped. Also think about the, what's your, not just weather, but also what kind of biological environment am I in? Am I close to forests? Am I in the, for example, in the farmer's field? To what? Farming. Farming land, do I live around farming land? What that might mean for me? That's, let's say if I'm in a clay area and it's going to be raining like mad all the time, or I'm sand, and maybe there is a range of rains. What if I am in an environment where, if the winter goes extreme and it freezes like hell for three weeks, four weeks, it doesn't fall? Right, again just thinking about where am I doing, what do I see now, what's the shitty weather I really hate? Imagine a time stand, and then five times a year, not once, every five years. Because that's the order I'm going to be talking about, this time right, so next winter, beyond that, no, they're really not sure. What do I expect in terms of birds and the bees? Do I still think, is that something I care about? Posterity, I'll start grouping and you shout if you don't agree, right? Because I want to reduce the number to a manageable sort of clusters of things. Let's see if it's possible. I'll just randomly start grabbing. We have drought. That is clear. What do you mean by drought? Whoever wrote that? Not enough available fresh water on our agricultural fields? So you meant something much more specific, OK? So drought is specifically agri-food, OK? I have natural research external supply chain breakdowns. I will park supply chains, because I want to have that with a more economic side of things. Floods, pollution, plastic, toxic, excellent. So this is floods. Let's put drought there, floods there. What's here I think very interesting here is the link to the toxics, right? There was the one of the side effects of Brexit at some point was, oh, now we have the waste processing for manure is back topic, because normally it goes to Holland, now it stays to the UK, and now they're having these pillovers of basically raw animal sewage going into the waters, because they just can't deal with it. And this is the kind of thing where once you start flooding, and we've seen that in New Orleans with the last flood, it's dead cows and gasoline, and oil refineries being flooded, and you do not want to swim in that. Right. So this is interesting. So I like this one. So we have flood and we have pollution. So that's a very interesting one. And how do you then deal with the crap? Let's say you have a garden, and now it has a layer of toxic mud. Awesome. Extreme heat, less trees than now. OK, so keep it with the drought. So we have the high temperatures, droughts. Climate refugees, I will park as social. Super rapid, the bio-dervis still lost. OK, bio. Let's keep the bio together. Bio is, what does that mean for you? Whoever wrote that one? But what does it mean for us? It's not me. I'm sitting at home in my garden and going, is this food? OK, so this is I will add here sort of food and then the rest. And this is at least the thing that I spend a lot of my time thinking about systems scientifically, and it's all, we get that, but then what does that mean? And that's the hard part. How do you bring it down? Right. And then we'll keep this one. Please do remember this, because we'll come back at the economics, and then it becomes food, and it becomes justice, and it becomes, yeah, that part. More frequent extreme weather events. I'll keep it somewhere here, I guess. Also here, if whoever wrote this one specifically, try to think about, for your situation, what does that mean for you? Are you in a mountain? Are you usually caught by blizzards? Uh-huh. What if I have non-stop blizzards for a month? Because that's when you can start grabbing it, because more extreme weather is like whatever. More deserts. Lack of drinking water, I'll keep it here. I'm already depressed. Storms, OK. Storms. Storms are insurance companies hate storms. They damage a lot of things, and they damage things over wide area. I did some European projects on flooding and storm damage. Floods they don't care about. Floods are local, general, in the world of insurance companies. Storms come in at many hundreds of square kilometers and hit everything. So OK, if it's a storm, if you live in a flat, you have a different thing to worry about than if you own a house. We were hit in Netherlands. We had a storm in November. Was it? No, what is it again? November? Half my neighborhood lost roofs. I was luckily fine, but my neighbors were not. Solar panels flying trees. So that means, OK, fine, if I'm preparing for, and that's clearly a short-term emergency, I have a hole in my roof. Now what? OK, so if that's a likely event, and storms are the easy, likely thing to have, what do I then do to make sure that? And we can talk about that in a minute. Not pollinators, bees, food, put it there. Unemployment, I'll park here with economics. And so sea level rise increasing something. Sea level rise. I'll put that under the flooding. The difficulty thing with sea level rise is that you don't necessarily need to have a lot of sea level rise to start having problems. It's not necessarily about I'm going to have permanent water up to here, but even a little bit more water will allow much more frequent erosion. So that's also a couple of storms because these things are nasty, especially Dutch coast is sensitive to that. Also here, whenever you think for yourself, what does it mean for me? It really depends where you are. And because of the social and physical systems involved in the Netherlands, this is the least of my worries in terms of flooding, which is weird enough, because we are so extremely well-prepared. But in the Netherlands, we always bring sand to the beach. Yes. We bring lots and lots, millions of tons. Yes, exactly. Here, 12 million tons a year of sand to the beach. And if the sea level rises, you have to increase that and significant things. Exactly. We have to find areas where we can win sand. The ships are really using a lot of energy. We have ships that use a ton of petrol, a tower. So it's not nothing. And also the wind areas also have explosives. So we have to see where we can win the sand. So it's not nothing. At this moment, it's OK. Agreed. Agreed. So if you're comparing severity of dealing with this, let's say in the Dutch coast where you have, I mean, the Dutch water boards are over 1,000 years old. Democratic institutions. In a situation where you have that context, a high risk is probably going to be less of an impact. The same kind of situation without the institutional context, without the rules and the systems in place, is catastrophic. And that's what makes it so hard. Because generally, it's like, well, sure, high water is sometimes a huge problem, sometimes not. And that, again, depends. If you're on the French coast, just a few hundred kilometers from your south, this becomes a problem. Because they do not have that setup. Because they never had to worry about it. And Dutch did. So what's not to worry in Holland might be a war in the French coast. And again, depending on where you are, try to think those things through for yourself. That's why we cannot really, there's no one solution. It's going to be all piece wheels for your local situation within your context. Mars migration. A mass, I was like, Mars. Are we going to Mars? Sorry, people. Oh, yeah, well, that's the question to Mars. There's an interesting side topic here. You might have read the Three Body Problem science fiction book from Sishin Liu, one of the few Chinese, one of the things that is a Chinese science fiction novel about how we know aliens are coming in 400 years and they're going to kill us. And now what? There's an interesting point where at some point the world government, because at some point they have that, bands talking about leaving the planet to the point that they imply mind control to prevent those kinds of thoughts, because the thought of leaving the planet is so damaging to survival. And of course, that's science fiction. But as a thought, why we should not listen to Elon Musk? Because there is no Planet B, and you do not want to go to Mars to be a slave to eke out existence rather than fix your shit here. And so I thought that was a very interesting thought there. More very wet extreme precipitation, more droughts. So that's kind of in between. This one is interesting. Again, precipitation. Usually, if you're on the Atlantic Coast, sudden heat waves will bring sudden storms, will bring a lot of water very quickly, which eventually leaves. But you really need one centimeter of water in your living room to really ruin your day. Also, farming land with lots of precipitation in a very short period with very dry ground gets all the nutrients out of the ground. And kills the plants and all of that. And so that means that there is a whole body of literature, not just scientific literature, but more popular on property level protection measures for flooding. You can look into that if you're interested. There's lots of very practical advices. How do I make sure that my house, if it gets flooded, is not too badly damaged? Which means moving your sockets to not there, but there, not having hard floors, having all sorts of things. There are ways you could do if this is a real threat to you. The thing here to worry about is you don't have to be flooded by sea to be in trouble. You just have to be the lowest part of your neighborhood. And this is extremely local. If you're in the Netherlands, you have the AHAN, Aachen in the Hoogtekaart Nederland, AHN.nl, which has millimeter level accuracy of all the surfaces in the country. You can exactly look where is your garden compared to the street in terms of water. So where will the rainwater go? I look at that first before I decide buying a house, because I'm looking for a different house, because I live minus four and a half. Lowest part of the hake, no fun. I've never been flooded yet. So if you are in a different country, check out those height maps. Be prepared. If you look at the map, you're like, well, but I am 20 centimeters taller than most of the street. I am probably not, don't have to worry about it, with a heavy rain at some point. But if it's more than X, et cetera, et cetera. So these are very concrete, local things. Extinction of species. I'll put it here with the rest. It's one of those, like how do you even, food shortages, water shortage. OK, so I'll put it in the middle, because this is the less of everything. And now that's going to come back in, I think, the second part, is how do we learn to have less? Yes, please. Yes, please. Just saying, because you said to speak from your lips, I'm not a boat on any marine. Obviously, it would affect me not having sitting next to me. Right, right. So that's interesting, because now this couples, of course, the supply chains to the infrastructure, to the older things that if you're on a boat, and the bridges are bent out of shape because of heat, and now you can't leave. And it's always thinking about those processes like what, when we're trying to do this, it's really about what is the obvious, never-think-about-it stuff that I should suddenly start thinking about it, because it might not work. A typical example of this in the Netherlands that I know of, I live in the West, right at the Hague. And a lot of logic there is, well, if you flood, we would just leave. Because we'll, right? Now, not just even where to, but how? Because the Hague area, to give you a sense, has three highways. All of them contain the lowest spot in the neighborhood. So the first thing that will happen is that those holes are filled with water. And nobody can leave, because no single vehicle, unless you have a freaking boat in your garden, can leave the area. So the whole logic is, I have a disaster. I believe it goes out of the window as a strategy. Strategy has to be, if I'm dealing with immediate response to a threat, I have to stay here. Which is a whole different approach to, I'll just pack up and leave. So, OK, how do I set up an emergency response to stick around? And so even the security agencies will be like, yeah, but people will evacuate. No, they won't. OK, please. Leaving is really nice. But if everybody's leaving, nobody's leaving. Even if you don't have a spot where it's flooded, only the first ones will leave and the rest will stay behind, because they're in traffic jams. Exactly. So we know that. That's a given. So then how do I design around that? And I don't know. Do you leave by car? You can say in the car, so it's possible, but can we leave by bike, or probably? I would say you're safer on a bike. If you're like really up, you know the Golden Rule, 72 hours before shit becomes ugly, right? You can usually survive three days. The idea is by then you're rescued, or you're fucked. That's kind of what I know, at least, from that literature. So 72 hours, stick on or leave. And then the question is, are you then leaving to come back? Or you're not coming back. So which scenario makes sense for your situation? Are you, do you expect, like if you're in those valleys in Limburg when the rains hit and your house was swept away and you just escaped, you're not coming back because you have nowhere to go to because it's gone. If you're no polder, you're not gonna be swept away because we don't expect torrents, right? It's not gonna be, they're not hills, they're just gonna be gross. Well, I can deal with gross, right? Because I can shovel and I can clean up and everything, but I cannot deal with a building not existing anymore. And so if you're in Limburg, that's a worry for you. It's not a worry for me personally, but, right? Agricultural water availability, prices. I'll keep that with prices here. How are we doing with time? Because this, I need to maybe hurry up. How fast, okay, let's hurry up a little bit. Heat wave, heat stroke deaths. Okay, this is one, thanks for this one. You're aware of the wet bulb temperature notion? Everybody knows about that? The wet bulb temperature? Yeah, for those that don't, wet bulb temperature is the, it's a thermodynamic phenomenon at which, that's the temperature humidity combination at which you cannot cool something down by evaporation. Right, at, what is it? I don't remember the exact details. Around 80% humidity and 35 Celsius, you will not be able to sweat yourself cool. A fit human has a few hours to live in shade because your body will simply start increasing its temperature and you will die. We have had a couple of days of that in India this year. There will be probably a few coming up in the US in Texas this year as well. Yes, please. It's hard to tell these things from user reports, this from user reports because a lot of you see a report that the humidity is something, is such and such a place and that the temperature is such and such a place and if they're not the same time of day, it doesn't actually exist. Right, so it's a tricky one indeed. So that's, it's hard to tell. There are calculators online that will help you with that, there are measurements if you look at wet bulb temperature. But this is the one that makes me worried long term because if you start having periods, let's say in India and places like that, tropical parts of lots of people that are humid, if you have these conditions for weeks on end, there will be a lot of very dead people and that's just terrifying because if you cannot hide, if there's no mechanical cooling. Now, for Netherlands, is that a likely scenario not yet? Even outside of multiple countries, I was worried about it in the UK for my grandma during the recent heat wave with your elderly. Excellent, again context, yes. So, okay, if I'm thinking about this prolonged heat waves, what do I do with grandma, right? Do you have a plan for that? I literally just went to my mother-in-law and we delivered a couple of fans and we had towels to her before we left for camp because we were like, well, it's gonna be hot and you were 80. But one meter below ground is very cool. Or is that a different plan answer for grandma? That's, do you really want me to answer that? Okay, I have droughts drying, dying woods, burning woods. This is, if you're in a forest area, yeah, that's good point. See, I don't even think about forest fires because I'm in the middle of a freaking swamp. But if you're not, let's put that on the droughts. This one is of course, we've seen it a lot last couple of years. What's your plan for that? Do you have a, I have no idea. I mean, I always think about floods and never think about forest fires for my personal use. So anybody who has that context? Yeah, I mean, if you have a house, defensible space is the main thing. We can show that there's like a hundred meters all around your house where there's trees or flammable bushes or anything and then leaving early so that if there is a, if there's fire and you need to leave, you wanna be out of there as soon as possible so that firefighters can actually come in and work at least. But then you need to jump forward. Thank you, Ernie. Yeah. Well, you need to do the defensible space thing way ahead of time, yeah. You can, in California, for instance, where I used to live, if you live in the mountains, no one has like a cabin next to the forest and the forest is being safe. You have a cabin and then you have 100 meters of grass and then the forest is way over there because if the forest is next to your house, the forest burns, your house burns, construct the tissue made of a campfire and fuel or things that you're doing now. Right, and what you just said is something you do ahead of time. You don't do that while it's burning. You had to come, you had to come, sorry. Tropical countries, you learn in permaculture, design courses, you learn about putting banana plants around the soil, they block the main fires. Banana plants, permaculture, the excellent idea. So if you're in a situation where you can afford permaculture, for a lot of these things, probably a good idea. But that's also not something you do overnight. That's something you do years ahead. So if you... Keep in good shape. Back burning in Australia is like a real thing, like for decades and decades, back burning is like really useful to contain the fires. What is back burning? Intensely burning. Intensely burning a corridor. About fires, I'll keep them. Okay, but I'd like to say that you, if you chop the trees then the carbon storage is gone. So... There is, just to make a comment on that, thinking across scales here is very hard. When you're talking about 100 meters of forest around your house, whatever, we need to worry about hundreds of, thousands of square kilometers of Amazon. We need to worry about oceans, because a lot of the oxygen and all that stuff is oceans, not so much. And there's always that trade-off, like, and I don't know how to deal with that, but there is the local, I'm emitting something because in the long run, or, but scales are hard, and planetary scales are not something we as individuals know how to think about. You know, 16,000 kilometers, that's 60,000 kilometers, that's not a quantity you can think about. Six billion people, what does that even mean that number? Like 150 I can understand, not six billion. I've had some more floods there, lots of nature, vegetation, high altitude forests, yeah, that's, if you're in mountains, that's the other worry I'll add it over there. I've done quite a lot of stuff on flooding and flash floods, and if you have no vegetation or mountains, flash floods will break things up really bad. There's a scary paper we wrote about St. Martin and their floods, where we show how rich people push the poor people up the hills. And because they don't own the land, they're not allowed to have concrete foundations because concrete foundations means property. Therefore, you're in a shack and you're on a steep hill and you get swiped away every couple of years by a typhoon. Lesson is don't be poor, that's kind of, yeah, sorry, I just got a little bit cynical, but that's the worst, can somebody read? What was that? Urban heat islands, overnight. Fantastic, thanks for that. So, not everybody is suburban, I keep on forgetting that because they're living burbs. If you are a city dweller, what happens, right? Overheated grid, grid goes down, if you're lucky to have air conditioning, now you have nothing, now what? And yes, the heat island is very powerful. So, for example, I have neighbors who love concrete for some very strange reasons, I have gardens full of concrete. Mine is full of wood chips, bark, and plants. My garden is literally 10 degrees cooler than theirs. And these are small things you can do, just make sure there's no concrete around you if you can afford not to have that. And if you have, if you're in a flat, do you have plants? Because living things will suck up heat. Tropical weather, okay, tree is replaced by the new, tropical weather trees will be replaced with the new, new species, right? Invasive species in general, how much do we care? If you are exposed to kudzu, for example, in the U.S., and the kudzu comes and covers everything you own and kills everything, then it's a problem. In Holland, frogs, we got our crabs in Holland, but they're pretty tasty, even though you're not allowed to catch them, thanks for that. That's the one, a few years back I was working at the Center of Environment in University of Leiden, and they brought in somebody from malaria. This person was 80 years old, they have never left a country in their life. They happened to live close to Schiphol. I wonder what the fuck happened, and that was no good, because elephants will not stow away on planes accidentally and spread out, right? Mosquitoes will. And so that means, okay, so fine, that's in our swampy context, that is a real worry. Dengue, yellow fever, all those scary things, do we know to recognize it? So maybe you should just read up on it or have a little booklet somewhere in your cupboard like, oh, that's how it looks like, and if the doctor is like, I don't know what's wrong with you. Well, maybe, I don't know. Okay, droughts, I have droughts on high sand areas, I'll put it with drought, same there. Lots of, please, I can't read it, I'm just hoping somebody recognizes there, knows what this was. So what? But it's not mine. Anybody recognize their own sheet? Aha, lots of rain, right, so that's the, where do I put that, storms, I put it on the storms, that's the same as that. We are not allowed to go outside during heavy storms. That's an interesting one, you see, this happened to me just last November with the storms, I saw my neighbor's roof fly off, and I was like, oh, I'll go outside and tell them because they can't see the roof I can, and my wife was like, are you fucking insane? And then she was like, she was right because as I was about to go outside, I see bricks falling down, because I live in a narrow alleyway, and I see bricks coming down from his roof, like how about I wait for about an hour and then go tell him because there's no point in getting killed while I'm trying to tell him his roof is down. I mean, he was out, we were out there, but there is these, how far do you reach out and, but you don't, again, save yourself first, right, because you can't help other people, sorry. The phone was so good. I actually don't have his phone number, which is an excellent point socially. Do you know your neighbors? Do you have your neighbors phone number? Yes. You do? That's smart. Who else has their neighbor? What's up, neighborhood? Okay, so, but that's less than half. How many addresses? Yeah, he's like two houses, he's in the back. I don't know him, and I saw about less than half of the hands. Lesson learned there, local community, right? At the first aid center here, we asked the fire estimation mark joke from the IT cloud that you, if you see a fire, you have to send an email with fire estimation mark. Right. I will put this one here. This one says farming will move to more dry crops, grains, and legumes. That's a long-term adaptation. Swiss glaciers melting. I'll put that under, where was it? It can cause floods and droughts. Floods and droughts, oh, fun. Let's put it there. Toll buildings covered with green, that's a solution. I'll put that there. Farm turned into water buffers, that's a solution. That's great. More greenhouses, especially vertical. A solution. Farming done by machines, that's a thing there. Mass migration is a social. We'll keep that there. Flooding, we have flooding. We had droughts, flooding was there. More civil action, great. Let's put that there. I have wasp takeover work from bees. That's an interesting one. That's ecosystem function. Extreme heat, torrential rains, flooding. Okay. Okay, so, in retrospect, thanks for your input. We see, oh, there's one more. Oh, thank you. Less local fish, that's great. So where do I put that food, the cost of water or food? What do we see? What have we seen? Let's look at this. We have our droughts. We have our fire, again, immediate problems coupled with storms often. We talked about how to, what do you deal with that? Can you evacuate, can you not evacuate? I also heard very different things, right? Oh, I mean, in a city, heat waves are different than if I'm in a dry land, if I'm in the mountains. There is the species, food aspect, which is something we'll have to address. And this is the one where being, this one is hard not to be naive about because you cannot, the amount of, okay, so if you are a hunter-gatherer, UK, which has about 80 plus million people can support about 80,000 people. I've seen some papers claiming that. That's a very significant difference in numbers. So the idea, I'll go in a woods in southwest of the Hague and gather my food, what the fuck, right? Of course not. Like, just know, these concentrations don't work. So how do you think about things like providing your own food if you know that you either physically aren't able to do so because it takes hectares per person? And lots of work and years of preparation and skill, which we, most IT people I guess don't, I mean, I certainly don't. I mean, you know, it's a job, right? It's a skill, you need to know how to grow food and my radishes get eaten by snails. How? And, you know, please, yes, thanks. Just to go back one step, I just want to clarify what you're mentioning about the UK, about not necessarily having the resources to defeat everyone. Is that, do you mean like because of the current production locally we have now, or do you mean like even if we utilize the land that we would never have? The publications that I've seen were estimating if you are a hunter-gatherer, if you literally live off the land by just looking around trying to catch an animal, collect berries, the carrying capacity of the ecosystem to support human energy requirements of the entire country is about 80,000 people. Right, I understand that. This assumes no agriculture. It's like the extreme, we are literally just bands of roving humans doing... Good old days. Yeah, when you get to be a ripe old age of 30, right? That's the... I'm a ripe old age of 20. I'm still made of the 60s. Yeah. True, I mean, okay, so let's move this, and then it's a target. Yeah. So I want to move the ecological ones, this one. So I get killed. And the result? I will shock the environment. So then... Yeah, happy? Yeah. So we'll try to summarize this at some point and put it online. Okay, so that's ecological environmental and of course, environmental sleep. Okay, so what I would like to do now is to keep, also in view of time, to repeat this exercise, but now bring it closer to home to us geeks and think about the techno political aspect of things. Right, so this is the stuff that is just whether it's going to be climate, it's going to be things that hit us. Let's try to think about the social, governmental, and the things around us, the machines, the software, the papers, please, aspect of things. What do we think in a world which is going through this kind of repeated frequent shocks that we either can handle but not so often or we never had to deal with before, such as long-term extreme heat in the Netherlands, we're not built for that, we're built for wet and cold, not for that. Or like what you see in Texas, you're not built for freezing, right? You have everything set up to keep the heat out, not to keep it in, so they went terribly wrong when they had weeks of freezing weather. So let's think about what kind of world, if this is happening, if I've been flooded for the fifth time this year, or the seventh storm in three months has brought down again the roof and I'm trying to get the guy to come fix it, but he's fixing his own roof and everybody's roof is broken, now what? What does, how does this look like? Are we, does government come show up? Does military come show up? It's a question, write it down, but does... I've seen it in Brabha and the roofs where they are not fixed for like five or six months. I've been liberty, still have vision, they are, they have vision for more than my year, I've been fixing all the damage of the floors. Please write that down, because I would like to gather, and then you can put there like very long or no help from, if that's the world, how you think it's a thing. Also think in infrastructures, the systems around you, the roads, power grid, can it handle it? Yes, is that useful exercise? Please, so my question is, please again, in the same way like we did, identify things you expect to have to deal with in the techno, social, government world. Do I still have internet? Do I have electricity? Do I have electricity? Do I, can I call the police if something goes wrong? Do I think that's a thing? Maybe it is, maybe you think it's not. I would like to hear that. And then I think we have a break and then see, use that to think about, okay, so now what do we do then, okay? Take a few minutes. If you need more pens. My pen disappeared, I don't know. Oh, I have one for you. Probably this one, I had green one, so probably was this one, I don't know. Okay, you may have to bring one. I don't know. So no drinking water is more a previous exercise, right? So I don't know, if you're drinking water for you means, go to the river cleaning it up and drinking it, then that's that, but it is, I open the tap. And I hope that the water company did their job or is able to do their job. And then I think the one's here. But also think, and again, this is hard because it's multiple scales, but also more general things, like do I still have access to a bank? And my love to do things is a well-meaning government, in the state of constant disruption, necessarily a high auditorium, because you only have so much food and you have to make sure it's wet and you can only do that when you provide it by metrics. Because that's a rational, smart and fair thing to do. It's a fantastic view, but it's not for us. It's definitely the thing because you, I don't care if this is a mistake, I want to have it, is it probable, and so what we do, if anything. Sorry, but she's talking. Thank you. Yeah, this bill. Oh, no, it's from the... Yes. It's for self-media. Yeah. It's, it's... There are some interesting things, after this, yes. Yeah, so please subscribe, I hope it's out of competition. You want your coffee color to win, eh? So... I'm not even considering that, but yes, that's a completely misunderstood exercise. Something with shorter memory and lack of sleep, but yeah, thanks. Okay, and then maybe just another photo, Claudia. Okay, last call. Yeah, thank you. Awesome. One more, here you go. One more. Thank you. Can you please take a photo? Yes. I realized I don't want to be staring off more paper, so I'll just reorganize it on this board, just to not waste more paper. Okay, I'll move a few things down so that I can start up grouping it together. Let's just start here. No internet, no electricity, no phone, okay. No, uh-huh, no telecom, right? Supermarkets, empty or closed, survival of the fittest. That's bleak. No water on the top, yes. Let's just talk about this, because I've seen it a few times already. The, what's plausible? Temporary, and I'm not saying it's not, right, but I just think about it. So there is the, something terrible happened, things are disrupted. Is this a likely long-term thing? It's a short-term. Right, which is fine. So let's then try to keep them short. I tried to put a short-term here and a long-term there. So the long-term question is, how do I prepare for a unpleasant, relatively short-term disruption, versus is it really, should I be preparing for the world where there's never more drinking water from my tap? Living in a western rich country. Is that a plausible scenario? Please. So when I'm thinking about this. Yeah? I mean, if it happens now, I think we will be fine. German government says be prepared for 10 days. Right. There's something like that. 10 days without running, right. I think we cannot do anything without emergency scenarios. But if this happens a lot of times, I mean, at some point we won't have the money and the backup solution, because the backup solutions will have run out. Yes. And so I think at some point, there's no backup solution at any point. So that's an interesting thought. Let's run with that. So you're saying in a world where this keeps on happening and you still have a functional government. That's an assumption. So you have a government that somehow still is there. At some point they can't afford it. And if your government that cares is trying to do its best, what is then the, do they say, well, no money or interesting company you have over there, that's now mine. I mean, I'm not, do you think that's plausible? Yeah, I think so. Because that's a thing where, again, I come from a country that has had war. And that's, a lot of these things are war situations. And then it's like, well, too bad. Democracy out of the window. We will do this. This is now ours and you will work. Pay, how do you mean pay? You are working. You are going to be digging that channel. You will be fixing that pipe now. The end. And so that's fine. No, it's not fine. But so in that scenario, which I think is a very likely one where you're like repeatedly being stressed, you cannot cope. You naturally, I think, and I'm curious what you think, end up in a very authoritarian government situation by necessity. Not because they're necessarily evil. Also people will help each other. People will help each other and there will be people who are fixing the pipes. Yes, that's very correct. Even without salary. Correct. I think that in the situation where everyone is suffering, there will be people who will work for others. That's exactly right. And we know that. We've seen that in more situations. We've seen in these other situations, people are generally decent in general. It's the few extremes that are annoying, but you're right. So it is always that how far do we believe that our societies will be able to stretch that and that you cannot keep up doing because you have to eat at some point and you can't go fix other people's pipes while your kids are hungry. So how is that gonna work? I don't know, but that's right. Perhaps what can happen is that there are not enough people who have the skills to do that kind of job. Excellent point. Of course we have here, we have really a society of managers. And well, I don't know, but I think most managers are not capable of fixing some water pipes. You're absolutely right. And this is, I'm glad you brought that up. So that, as a long-term strategy, that's in our part two. Yes, please. I just want to add that in times of crisis, there is always a need to restructure everything. So even if you are a manager, you become a plumber out of the need. Yes, but you have to have a plumber who can teach you what you need to do. Yeah, yeah, yeah, but that's... So if they're all gone or if they're all busy elsewhere, it's no option. What time is it? And you have to teach yourself. Yeah, but what I've seen during the times of crisis or during the times of war, that there are always people who can organize themselves because the government is failing or the government is occupied with something else. So yeah, like you said, that there is some decency among human beings still. The question always will be scale, but that's a very good question. Can you scale it up? You saw it indeed in Germany, but for example, last year during the flooding. Yeah. And my big question for me always is, does this scale up? Because this works in an emergency in a city, in a region. What if whole Europe is like that? What if whole world is like that? How far can you stretch this? I don't know. We do know that there's a lot of literature on the aging problem of lack of skills. We see that in all sorts of energy, network companies like, fine, I'll build that if I can get enough people, which they don't, because first we're having low birth rates, especially Europe, and who wants to be a tech because we can make more money as a manager. But so that's in terms of skills. Let's summarize this and then have a break. Forced degrowth, very interesting. Notice the word forced, and you know what that means, a government that says, you shall not have this now. Like heating swimming pools in Germany. Or forced vegan diet, somebody wrote. Environmentally sound. Will you be voting for the political party that says everybody must be vegan? This is literally the only place where the answer is yay, I think. But again, think about it, right? So in an environment that you normally live in, how will your neighbors react to something like that? I suspect not very favorably. Is it smart? Probably yes. They might not be able to. Yeah, but that's... So I have no power, no fresh water, no internet memes, oh no, put it here. China plus eco-fascism, state power, concentrating cities. That's interesting one, city concentration, that's humanity has been doing that. We are moving to cities more and more. Contrary side is for outcasts in corporate food, yeah. Somebody been playing cyberpunk 2077? I have, but yeah, that's... You right? It's interesting to observe what China is doing because they have compared to most other countries an exceptionally high degree of ability to organize. You can disagree the methods, extensively. You cannot argue with the results. I remember that Friday, when you're a nerd like me who worries about these things, there was a Friday that the Chinese government announced from today on you can only buy neodymium magnets. We will not sell you neodymium metal or neodymium ore. Now, neodymium, you're nerds, you know. And they have bought most South African, South American mines. They have priced out all the American mines and made sure that they are bankrupt and have full monopoly on neodymium right now. And before the US industry has re-established itself, that's not gonna happen. And they basically said no more ore for you. Withdraw ore from American production, kill the American production of neodymium, and they monopolized fully now. And only sell and... Long term, very smart, I mean, it's evil as hell and I wish I could pull it off, sort of. As in, right, I'm being flippant, but you get it, right? So it's really effective. And western governments are probably not able to pull that kind of coordination off. For better or worse, right, at cost, below cost, at the societal investment exactly. And no western capitalist environment allows for that. Right, absence of social services after major disasters capacity, right. Again, I'll keep it here with the, this is short term, I'll move that there, because that's the long term. No internet, I'll move that there, we already have that. Breakdown of payment systems. Oh, that's dog, okay, breakdown of payment systems. There will be Jackie, what's her last name? She's the lead of Team Waste. She's from Iceland and does banking system modeling as a scientist. She'll talk about this. She's going to have a talk at, I think it's tonight, I know, tomorrow night, at Clare, the Clare... Clear convoyance, yeah. And so she's an expert on financial systems and modeling. So if you care about that, go talk to her, look at the talk, we convinced her to submit one. Clear convoyance, yes. A convoyance, yes. The very long repair time for parts, yeah, repairs, maintenance, I'll put that. Nope, that's a whole different thing. This is about financial systems specifically. In, in the CV, yeah, can you please? In a superior heat stroke, we cannot bury the dead. You cannot bury the, oh God, yeah, okay. Now, yeah, there is a, one second, there is a science fiction book from, what's his name? Line of polity has, yeah, the owner series, oh my God, what is it? Somebody does something and then four billion people die instantly because of some implants or something. And then he talks about ecological disaster of having four billion corpses on the planet. It's, it's not fun. It really made me think of that. But there is that, like, what did you have biomass that just, oh, okay. Jesus Christ, okay, what this conversation. Come in, sorry? Oh yeah, sorry, apologies. That's okay. So I had the second no internet one. Yep. And I drilled down a little bit more because it's also, you know, no Netflix, no entertainment, people at home. I go so crazy. I go crazy. And I think that one of the reasons that, you know, Corona wasn't so bad was that everybody sat in front of the TV and watched TV, but what if there's no TV? What if people have to read books all of a sudden or play cards? It's, I'm curious what you think about. Interesting. That scenario. One of my buddies is a American divorce lawyer in Florida. And he said the first thing that happened, like after first half year of COVID is divorce rates went down. It dropped like a rock. And first everybody was like, oh, but that's amazing. And then they realized, oh no, that's terrible. Because people don't dare to get divorced. And so people stay in abusive relationships because it's so much insecurity that can't afford to leave. And it's actually a very bad thing. And so indeed, what they've seen is divorces went up, battery and domestic violent cases have gone up. And it's been, I mean, you can just tell, it's just got the graphs. So yeah, it's, and then we also know who's essential, right? It's the people on, right? Kids miss lots of school. That's a very important long-term thing. What do we do when we have systematic disruption of education, right? We've seen that now with COVID, it's not a good thing. I mean, I have kids at school, it was no fun. It's not good for them. They're desocialized. They didn't really learn how to be friends. It's not good. Authoritative governments know democracy. Yeah, that's put that there. No clean water infrastructure breakdown that keep that there. People noticing the limits, failures of capitalism and infinite growth. Yeah, that's, let's hope. Well, people notice. If water becomes scarce, no concrete, no construction. Somewhere there. Government restrict to buy items. So we put that on the government control. It's one of those things again. People were bitching when EU limited the maximum power of a water cattle and of the vacuum cleaner. I don't know if you caught that at some point, right? It's like, my freedoms and I need a three kilowatt cattle. Do you? Technological development pause. So that's interesting. We do know also that humanity never wastes a good crisis in general. And that's a very interesting one. So does it mean that development stops? If you look at major wars, they were major, major pushes because then YOLO anything goes. What now ethics? And so as terrible as it is, a lot of the advances happened because of Nazis locking up Jews and experimenting, which is terrible, but we found out things you would never found out about because they're extremely unethical to test. Right? NASA is half former rocket scientist. Right? But it's also not that out for us to use technology and not find it again for eight hundred years or more, right? That has happened. I've actually done a master's student with some archeologists who looked at a 13,000 years ago, there was an explosion of volcano in the Northwestern Europe somewhere that covered ash-changed local climate and they have historic records of tribes forgetting how to make bows and arrows. Right, and the interesting thing there is, and that's the thing that makes me really worried is the how much tech you need to make tech to make tech. Right? How much, I have to be able to make steel if I ever wanna make a chip fab. Even though not a lot of steel goes into it, but the layers of stuff I need to be able to, and that bootstrapping once you start losing certain levels will be very interesting. And especially if the rare and special things are required. So that's interesting. So do you have a chip fab low-level one in the hacker space? I don't know, but I also think it's useful to make up because they don't know how to use them. Right, and there's a lot of intensive knowledge locked in society which then starts becoming difficult to access. So when we talk about robot strategies, do you run a backup of Wikipedia on your home server? Just because, you know, yeah? Maybe you do, because you just wanna be have access to that knowledge if you don't have internet. No drinking water, that's all the emergency stuff. Pause, we had no internet due to heat energy shortage. Cars cannot drive because they need internet. Oh God, yeah. There's that. Yeah, we had the bury. Okay, so what have you seen? Yes, please. Oh yeah, did I miss something? That one, yeah? Yes, thanks for this guys. Which one, this one? Yes. Okay, so we have here no food, water, internet, no medical, right? Thanks for that. There is, especially when you are taking life-preserving chronicle education that you need to keep on taking, that's a thing. I just wanna share a story of just how bad this gets. I take certain pills that at that time could not stop, I have to continue, because side effects were psychosis and suicide, which is like, you don't wanna just do that. It's not, you know, it's one of those extreme things, but, and I'm a professor at the university, my mother is a psychiatrist in Switzerland. Okay, I have connections, I'm a white dude, middle aged. I can pull strings. And one day I show up at the pharmacy, give me my pills, because I was forgotten, they were like, no, there aren't any. It just ran out, I'm like, I have two more days and then I go crazy. We don't have them, because supply chain breaks, it's something happened. It took me 48 hours to get it organized. And I have a psychiatrist in the family who can write a recipe. I have it fedexed and I'm rich enough to afford that. And it was a lot of effort, a lot of stress, being at the top of the, I can push it off pyramid. And now you're a single mom with two kids, no job. Black, Muslim. Are you laughing, right? No, no, I know, but that's really bad. That's really bad. And then you ran out of life saving medication and the doctor goes, I want to help you, but now what? And that to me was really sobering. It's just how much effort it took me to fix something that's extremely easy for me to fix compared to most people, holy cow. How do we as a society deal with such things? And so I stopped taking medication, I take different ones that I can't stop if I have to. That's an adaptation that's, you know, no transport, obviously, absolutely. So if you have diabetes, you can't stop. Or if you need oxygen, you can't stop. Exactly, so then the question is, if you're in that situation, what is, what can you do? I don't know, I just want to raise that point and to really, because you know your low situation, but what can I do? And you might want to have some supplies, you want to have some buffers if you can. What in the long run? Please. Yeah, yeah, sure. So a related thing is how do we learn from these things? So we mentioned Germany before and people helping and there was this flooding and then the insurance companies paid out and the government decided we're gonna rebuild everything just like it was before and really just like it was before. In the same areas that flooded, we're going to rebuild these houses so that way when the next storm comes, we can rebuild them again. Of course, telling people to move, you know, go someplace else is also kind of mean, but it seems to me like we had this great effort, there was a horrible situation, people came together and then we didn't learn anything. We can rebuild in a different way. Rebuild in different ways. We can rebuild the buildings, but also build some areas where the water can go. So just to react to that, this is the difficulty about I think all this whole thing is that not that there is no solution because as smart intelligent people, we can come up with solutions, but do we expect them to actually be implemented? And then the answer is no. We had much less damage from the flooding because we had some areas where the water can go. There was damage as well, but no casualties. Right. Much less damage, still too much damage, much less than in Germany. Right, so then the question is, okay, given your institutional legal political context, what can you expect to be the response? If you look at UK, where I looked at the flooding there, the call it the elevator effect, which is this really weird thing where because you build protection, the formula used to assess risk lowers the risk which says, oh, now I can build because insurance is cheaper, because I built, value at risk goes up. So you have to build more protection which lowers the risk, you build more, and it's like, what the fuck? We are doing exactly the wrong thing, but from that logic, this is the logical thing to do. Keep on building where you shouldn't be building. Nice experiment at this very moment is moving Jakarta up the mountain a little bit in Indonesia. Right, so how do you move a city? Can you organize it? They also switched the main capital or? Yeah, they're switching actually the capital. They're switching the capital. So some countries seem to get it, right? And if you know that your environment will not have that ability to adapt and build better, what does that mean for you then? Do you then preemptively start, your next house will not be in there if there's a next house? Should there be a next house? Can you even, I don't know, we don't know. So, yes, please. So there's one more I want to go over very quickly to give to just around food shortages, really. Yes, food shortages, okay. I have an idea that in the UK, we import most of our food. Yes. So we couldn't feed our own population just from our agriculture? Yes, you cannot. Presumably if these other countries where important we are from, they have agricultural problems caused by climate change. The first thing they ever want to do is stop exporting and keep the food. You're seeing that exactly right now with grain. There's actually, I can't want to reproduce a little more, but there's actually a website that's tracking all of the different food export bans. I believe generally this year there's around 30 countries with some form of food export ban at any given time than another less intended, some other weird restriction. And then, but the actual number of products is a bit more, maybe 40 or something. Anyway, but it seems the website started this year sort of tracking it, but you can watch that and get an idea how this is gonna keep growing. Yeah, so just for the recording, so there are websites which we don't have, you're all right now that track food export bans. And that's again a logical, rational response to if you're a government and you need to make sure your people have to eat, you will not sell your food anymore, which is too bad for everybody else who's buying it. And that's that degradation at that level to parochial protection because it's just logical. They're not evil necessarily. Or they might be also evil, but yeah, right. Yeah, so what do we have? We had a few of these direct disruptions, short-term emergency stuff, so for this, I would say for these kinds of things that are short-term, we know how to deal with it. You got your UPSs, you have your life straws to filter your water, get a family pack size, they're not very expensive. I've did the math there, I have them at home. They look, because in Holland, I will have water, right? Quality, I don't know, but I will have water regardless. So how do I get clean water? Get a family size life straw, I can filter 25 cubic meters. I could drink with family for four year or more if I only had to drink. So that's fine. If you're in a place where do I have water, then you have a whole different problem. So these kinds of things, and if you take the muscle of water of needs, I need to breathe every minute, no, every couple of seconds, then I need to drink every couple of days, I need to eat once a week, and then I need to shelter and all of those things. So you need to have that stuff sorted out on the emergency response side just because of the first 10 days. Then there is the, what you've seen here is authoritative centralized control that seems to be a very common theme for better or worse. And I find that an interesting list because a lot of the policies, I'm like, yeah, we should probably do that. But yeah, when we start forcing people to be vegan, that's gonna be fun. And then we have more cultural, how do we deal with capitalism? I have no idea. Education, supermarket supply chains, food supplies, always big, big thing. Okay, maybe we have a photo of the slightly organized thing, and I would propose a break, I'm also just very tired, maybe 10 minutes, and then I would like to finish up with a more focused session on, okay, so what are the things we can do as community, as individuals, in terms of action? And then we can pick up some of these things. Yeah? Say 10 minutes. Okay, so welcome back. Thank you for coming back. It's always a fun to actually see the audience return, which is, breaks are critical, you'll never know. That's my test with lectures, you know, in the halfway, because we usually teach two hours after one after the other, and halfway there's like nobody comes back. Anyway, so let's do the final exercise. And let's use different colors just to keep things separate. So let's say, what do we have? We have blue, yellow, and red? Pink. Pink-ish. So let's do yellow for short-term things, and let's do anything that's not yellow for long-term things. Just so that's one first separation, and we'll hand the, please share. So use bright for short, dark for long. Yellows, do we have blue there? Yeah. What is short and long? I'll, I'm getting there. So what I would like to do now is, because we talked about the socio-technical stuff going wrong, more ecological, environmental stuff going wrong, let's think about what can you do? What are the things to learn, to train, to teach, to organize? What are the, let's keep it as close home as we can, because society, we kind of all know, but that's all the stuff that's not, it's useful, but not something that's actionable that will help me in my daily life. And that's what I would like to get out of here is, can we get some form of grip? So what are the things that are short-term actions and activities that we can do? What's your definition of short-term? Yes, that's, thank you for that question. No, I would want to keep it even shorter. That would be the, I have to deal with an emergency caused by climate change and whatever. So food running out, my medicine's running out, whatever, I'm being flooded, my roof blew off. These kinds of things and the long terms are, what do I teach my kids? What kind of skills do I want them to have to live in a world that's going to experience, maybe authoritative, well-meaning, but authoritarian governments that's going to mean, disruptive economic systems is gonna mean, access to limited information, all of those things. So long-term skills, long-term behaviors, whatever comes to mind, versus more short-term oriented things. Stickerches. Yeah, this is Nihondo. Yeah, please, can we have more darker ones, long-term ones, oh, here, okay. Yes. Yeah, there we go. Yeah, they're blocking it last. That's sound like a, seemed like a good idea, those papers, or we have to use more plastic. Oh yeah, all right. Darker stuff will be, can we please have more of the blue ones? May I please have that stack there? Yep, thanks. Okay, I'll give you a few more, couple of there, some more darker ones here. I'll split the stack there. And yeah, yellow, bright color, if you can grab it, something short and a darker color for the long-term. And think about things you would like to learn because you think it's useful to know because it will help you deal with change. Things that you will teach your kids, or I should teach my kids. Things you wish your neighbor knew. And if it's something very specific to your situation, please add, in which situation does this make sense? Like, I want to learn how to do permaculture that it's great, but that means I have to have a place to do permaculture. So if I live in a flat, that's not very useful. Doesn't mean it's, never, I mean, if you think that's useful, think please put it down. Yes, okay. So I'll put. Yes, I'm very interested in this. Yeah, please just stick it through. It's a little kind of, right? It's on there. Yeah, it's up there. Let's just look at it, because there are many different things. Let's look at the short-term things. Degrowth yourself today. Could the person who wrote this just clarify a bit more? Yes, please. There's less resources. What I'm not doing maybe, not sufficiently, because if tomorrow we are going to have a partial collapse or a problem, the less you need and the less you're using, the more prepared you're going to be. And also the exercise itself of thinking and going through the, through the less resources, prepares yourself for that scenario. So the question is, let's think about what do you really need? All right, do I need that third-game computer or? Right. Do you think that server in my closet went for a second? Of course you do. All three of them, yeah. Yeah. Okay, weapons, stashing, and or 3D printing them. I get it. It's. Americans have plenty proven that it's not the real viable solution. And to be contrary, I would say it also helps. And that's, I don't know, it's a strange thought, right? Because you know people will be dicks as well at some point. And so what's that balance? Because especially when things get ugly, how do you balance that out? You know, you cannot go full US because that doesn't work. Sorry for the Americans. No, no, I'm specifically just responding to weapons, right? Because a society that's so weaponized is just going to be scary. On the other side, I don't know. It's, I think it's a very tough moral question because you don't want to be defenseless. You want to be, you know, you're going to protect your family. Of course you will. No, it's, I'm glad you brought it up. It's, it's scary, but switch to work, close to home. I'll move that to more or long-term, but I get it. Vocally public, you oppose. CC, yeah, climate change now. If you have the nerve and energy. Yes, please. Thank you. Aikido, there we go. Unarmed defense, no, that's an excellent point. This one, vocal, vocal. There is always a worry though that people who don't want to believe will never ever want to understand. And you see it in Europe, you see it very much in the US. It's so extremely polarized because of various reasons. Breaking that, you know, there's basically no point anymore because they will not listen to you. I see the point as not necessarily to convince people who already climate change denies not to do that, but to try to make sure that if you're in a society, while we're all in the society, if you're in a particular group, people are in a particular discussion, making sure that they don't stand unopposed. So no one's going to hear that and think, oh, that sounds reasonable. No one's disagreeing with this. So it's the continuous anti-voice of keeping it loud. I agree with that. Yeah, stopping it from spreading. Civil disobedience, very much so I agree. Very much depends on can you do you there, you have the ability to actually go and be chained into offense. Sometimes it works. Save a three kilo beaver, okay. Do not buy ice cream from the North Pole, fair enough. Learn as many languages. I like this one. I don't know why it's shorter. I'll move it to long term. I think that makes sense, but I like it as a communicate, right? It's the more you communicate, the better. And across cultures, that's always hard. 3D printing of false teeth. I think that's really nice. Things you can, I mean, these are the things that imagine you are in a barter economy where you can, the payment system is down, and you can make teeth and people need that. And you're making, I don't know, life straws. Yeah, that's emergency preparedness, basic stuff. Life straws are these field, yeah, right. Simple things. I have strap-on bands for these ratchet bands because I carry lots of loads. Last storm, I just brought them out of my car because I don't know, I was paranoid and I ended up strapping down my shed. It did not fly off. It's like just have, you have a shed that could fly, have things to tie it down in case of. It worked, I saved my shed, looked really funny with tape. Organized local communities, yes, awesome, volunteer. This stuff touches people's lives and that's, you help somebody, they will always remember that and they might come back and open source is viral, community building is viral. And think about these things, that's great. Even though I would not put it here because that's a long-term thing, but it's a very good strategy. Have a amount of water plus food in your house, have supplies, medicines, yep, that's basic. And think it through. Basic emergency response is just smart. I mean, literally the government, the Dutch government has a list, have these things. Those lists are stupid. There are some very dumb things on there. But as nerds, we can debug that and maybe make them open source, emergency preparedness per region or per situation. Because one for a flat developer, a single person is different than a family of six in the boonies and they need to be, yeah. Change career to sustainability, if you can afford, yeah. On the paper, old-fashioned CSM, because, yeah. You might need it. You don't have to. Right, have old tech also, which I appreciate that. So have low tech available because you never know. And not hoard them, but have a few just in case. Yeah, change of careers, not for everybody available, obviously, but that's if you can, because if it feels better, you're gonna be more enjoying it. You'll be doing something meaningful. It's a long term, yes, please. Yeah, I try to, I try to change my career. Okay, so I'll keep it short, right. I'm in the process of changing my career. There you go. So what I've seen from psychological research on this is autonomy, mastery, and sense of purpose. The three things you need, right. And it's the sense of purpose often lacking in most corporate jobs because you're just buying somebody bigger fucking yacht, right. And autonomy is lacking in, but sense of purpose. That's why I stay in academia for me. That's how it works for me. Yes. Autonomy, mastery, and sense of purpose. So you wanna be free to act. You wanna be good at what you're doing. And it has to mean something. And that last one is maybe the most important one because if it's meaningful, then you will accept much less because you know why you're doing it. If it's meaningful, then the salary. If it's. If it's high enough to sustain my. That's a very important if. And what sustaining means is very different for different people. And that's something that really matters, you know, what your local situation is, right. Degrow, very much so. That's also that attitude, right. Do you need new stuff or are you, is having second hand furniture or virtue? Because why spend money, right? I don't know. Okay, playing football in a refugee camp. Football, I don't, what's that? Football, that's me, that was me. Somebody said like meditate what skills do you need in a refugee camp. And that was one reason. So what is football? Football, what could you do? Oh, like just football. Oh right, I thought you meant football. So there was a. Yeah, okay, whatever, I can't start. No, no, no. You meant something different with it, okay. Another one, learn to spell. No, so like to play with other people in order to make connections. And I think that's a, you know, can you survive in a refugee camp? Yeah. Because that's a shitty, you know, this is how humans are shitty to other humans. And can you handle that? And that's not fun if you see what's going on there. Yep. Monetize climate solutions, I will, yeah. That's a, I like this one, think about business models that make people make, help people make money by saving the planet. If you can do that, you will be very, very rich. Which is glorious, right? So the Chinese. But how do we make saving the world extremely profitable? Right. Caing it. Masa is kasa. Masa is kasa, yeah, right. So inform, repair for local, emergencies, yeah, there is that. Sustainable travel, hitchhiking, if that's an option for you, do it. Go to farm with kids, short water, oh yeah, there is some filter, water. Manning, do I see the skills? So how do I build filters, filter my water, community building, food kitchens, first aid. First aid, basic things, just take a first aid course. I still have to do it. Local communications at VHF. Yes, VHF, thank you, yes. Yes, that's on my list. Learn how to become a ham operator. Not because I care about radio, but because, yeah, you never know. Right? And it's geeky. Have supply, oh, we had that. So, emergency preparedness, inform how to reduce, deregulate. Oh, that's a long-term one. Anything I missed? No, that's, I think, fine. Long-term, stimulate curiosity in my kids. Yes, please, teach. Go out and teach. Do coder dojos, do whatever, reach out to kids. Teach them to learn, absolutely. That's very, very important. Get them into the simple things you can do. Collect old waste, machines, electronics, and then have a day with the community, and just tear them open. Nothing, you don't have to repair anything. Just open it, sit there with your kids, and open things up, look at them. I won as a parent. There you go, right? I decided I won as a parent when my, then about seven-year-old came downstairs and said, the PS4 control is broken, where's the screwdriver? Not like, I want a new one, where's the screwdriver? Because he grew up in the hackerspace, and that's, of course, you just open things up. And then I've blown kids' minds by just giving the screwdriver an old toaster, and they were like, you can open it? I was like, oh yeah. And when you're in this community, you really forget how weird we are in the sense that, of course, you're gonna open it up. And get kids in that mindset, because it's fixable, right? Teach kids to enjoy free things in life, yes. Experiences, switch to working close to home, if you can. Boycott non-sustainable. I want to pause at this one. There's a huge amount of corporate shaming of consumers. It's very easy for Shell to say, oh, we should all drive green. No, fuck you guys, no. Clean up your act. There's a lot of pushing into individual responsibility, but for that it means that there has to be choice. And if I'm a single mom on welfare, and I have four kids, I will buy the cheapest bio-industry meat for my kids, because they're growing, I want them to eat meat because they need protein. I cannot afford to be sustainable, because I have no money. And then you get guilt on top of that. So this one is very tricky, because how, what can you boycott? And can you afford to boycott? That this is for rich people. And yes, do it, but don't shame people into it. And a lot of the well-meaning woke crowd will go crazy on that, and shame people who can't afford to do that. And being poor is expensive, you know that, right? Poverty traps, and you buy an old, inefficient washing machine because you have a couple of kids which then uses a lot of power, uses a lot of energy, breaks often you have to, but you will never be able to afford to buy a meal of 2,000 euros, because... They take it instead of taking it home to my thing. Right. And a person who has so much on their head is dealing with these things, cannot afford to think about these things. So how do we help people who cannot afford to be picky? That's hard. Community. Right, but then that has to be there. It's coming instead. Right. Well, for example, one thing I do, I volunteer every now and then with a repair cafe. And if you don't have a repair cafe, start one. Repair cafe basically is, we announce it, there'll be a group of people fixing stuff on Saturday morning in the community center. Come bring your thing, you can bring one device and we'll try to fix it if not, then we'll just dispose of it. And the number of tiers of joys I created just by replacing your fuse is just shocking. Because if you, I mean, you're nerd, you literally just unscrew it, you retighten the thing and people go, oh my God, this was my, and I'm not exaggerating. My husband recently died, this was his favorite radio and now it stopped working and now it works again. It's a crime. Fuck. Now, things are weird and what did you do? Yeah, unscrew or screw, right? Plant medicine, yes. This stupid, but it's like that. I just learned how. You know, geek out on that, right? I mean, you know, what if paracetamol runs out? Well, you go find the willow and chew on it. Because salicylic acid comes from willows, yeah? And that. Why not? I mean, is it gonna make you more stupid if you know your local biology and what's useful? No, that's a thing to learn. But you don't do that when you're trying to save your life because of a storm, right? So you need to prepare. How to cook healthy, yeah? Public open supply chains, oh my God, yeah. Pashamama, can somebody elaborate? That's you, right? It's like a figure of motor health. Of motor health, that's used in Latin America. Okay. Don't upset Pashamama, don't take too much from her. Okay, that's interesting way. Thank you. What do we have? Local pockets of information, BBS, private, skill sharing. Yeah, I mean, start a hacker space if you don't have one. Just that, because if people know where to come to learn. Universal knowledge repositories, yes. Pirate, more scientific papers. Absolutely. Run copies of Wikipedia, all the stuff that you know to do because you're not anywhere, you have that server in your cabinet, do something useful with it. Teach my kids to have survival skills, sure, why not? Alternative economic models for distributing what you do have. If your job is supply chain management and you have these choices, yes, then do that. What else do we have? Permaculture, learn about permaculture, awesome. Farming, more oriented to dry crops, talked about organized local communities, volunteer. Teach meditation for compassion, part of communities. Yeah, start involving your kids when you make decisions, why is decision, okay? Vote for green policies, yes. How to build local networks, neighborhoods, you mean, whoever wrote this, you mean technically or socially? Both of them, okay? Know your neighbors, I like the point, you knew your neighbors phone number, I don't, I should probably work on that. Oh, but that's brilliant, it's that, know your neighbors. Capture more CO2 than currently midst, yeah. Excellent idea. Okay, so with things like this, again the matter of scale comes in, right? It is. Right, so that's part of that. There is, we overestimate the amount of control I think we have on our emissions. I don't know where the paint pigment that went into this plastic bottle came from, I can't control that, I can buy a reusable bottle, but I can't control that. So there's a lot, a vast majority of impact is also behind the consumption. So in this case, this is obviously good, right? But there are. But it's still 65%, on top of the 100% used to create it in the first place. Okay, so like plastic, I'll use less plastic, fine. Netherlands burns all with waste, right? UK landfills, Netherlands burns everything. No, they don't. Well, it's law, I mean, you're not allowed to. Well, yeah, but. Vast majority is burned, that's not going to details, right? The point being that since plastic has been recycled and paper is being recycled, the calorific value of Dutch waste has gone down, which means that we have to burn oil when we're burning waste to keep the temperatures high enough, because otherwise we get dioxins because chlorine is in everything. And dioxins, you look at them at 100 meter distance, you get cancer. So you really don't want dioxins in the environment. And when the temperatures below 600 Celsius, they form. So we solved it, but then we, so is burning plastic a bad idea? Yes and no, right? Because you need that oil, so it's delayed oil, right? I'm not advocating burning more plastic, but you get these weird interactions in the back end. There is so much demand for recycled paper in Sweden that they cut down trees, make paper, then shred it, now it's called recycled, and it's recycled, and then sold as recycled paper. And that's serious. Yeah, actually you have it with plastics. Right? So you think you're doing the right thing. And so you have no idea, you can't know. Which is like, really? But yeah. I mean, sell your car, don't fly. Flying, yeah. You don't want that, yeah. Yes, don't buy a new smartphone. Furniture has to be replaced, or if it's still working, can you buy a second hand, then that kind of things. Because for example, furniture, there's a lot of second hand furniture. Yeah, I agree. People die, I want the things in the house, but they don't know where to put those things. Yep. All the animals, as a impact on the planet. Those are totally meat. Flying, that's the two things that matter most, and then things like turning off the lights if you have LEDs, nobody cares. It's symbolic, it's the... Anyway, just how are we doing with time? Right now. Okay, so, as a recap, and then I'll let you go. We have a bunch of very useful, we have a photo, right? Yeah, we have a bunch of useful stuff, I think. The difference who you are depends what you can do, but you can do a lot. And I've seen a lot of community, which I really appreciate. A lot of teaching, a lot of lifestyle. And the weird thing with these things is it doesn't matter what you do, and it also matters a lot what you do. And that's the big paradox of individuals in groups, is that you could be that one person that triggers, but that trigger can only happen when there is sufficient amount. But there is sociological research that says if you can get three and a half percent of the population to agree on something, you can change society. You can change society, you can fundamentally cause revolutions. 11, so I've heard three and a half. I've heard this word in position of familiarity. There you go. Fair enough. Whether that actually works, we don't know, but you might need less people than you think that agree and focus, so organize. That's, I think, the message here. I think, for example, I said sell your car, and I think also 11 percent of the population would sell their car, don't buy a new one. Okay, we don't, we need much less parking with places. You can solve, you can solve the mobility with shared vehicles. Sometimes. If you could, if so many people would sell their cars, it would really have impact. And that's absolutely agreed, and again, it's very context dependent. Where you are, who you are, can you afford to sell your car? That's, I cannot say you must do that, but it's probably not a bad idea. But only if you can. We've done a lot, so if you look at, in retrospect, yes sir? No, no, yeah. We have a nice list of, nice, terrible list of things that we expect. Have a look, come back to this, think for your situation what's important. Many things might not matter, some might matter a lot. What does that mean? See if you can for yourself find things that you're like, yeah, I can see this happening to me, how do I, can I use any of these things? Yes, please take photos, we'll put them on the wiki as well. Any final thoughts before we close for you guys? Thank you for working so hard. You mentioned the wiki. Emergent.Earth. Okay, okay. Claudia runs that, and she'll be putting up these things up, and then anything else you wanna, there's also the reading, there's material over there that you can read about, that's also available as PDFs, very legal. So you can, yeah, just adding things that's, that happens. And will you play a game or something? At least if you want. One second, please. What are you doing with all this? We collected a lot of things, we put it on the wiki, but, are there any actions you perform to make people do all those things? I cannot make anybody do anything, I can hardly make myself do things. How, what is the, what is the simple of this? Excellent point. The reason why I did this exercise is because I did something similar for myself, to give me some peace of mind, and I personally learned, there's some very interesting things I haven't thought about before. So for me that's when, because my list now grows of things to consider and some things to think about. I hope that it works for you the same way, it helps you give a slightly different angle to the same thing. What do you want to follow up? It's up to you. I can help you bring it together and then share these things, and if you want to pick it up and run with it, by all means please do so. You mentioned last night in your talk, at the end, like, I drive an old diesel car and I'm not going to replace it. I'm not able to, yeah, I can't. I'm personally working on this project with the government or some big company and they use a gas or something like that. Yeah, yeah, massive. Something that you personally can do. And when I hear you say that, I think, well, how could I do that? No, but you can do other things. But you can do other things. Any of these things. Because we have different skill sets, different experiences. And I think that the challenges really look at this and say, well, what are the things where I feel I can make a difference? And that could be at any level. Because there's no point of comparing yourself in that sense to other people because you're not me and I'm not you, right? So it's a tricky thing, right? So of course, I also have, I'm in a particularly privileged position. I'm very well educated. I have a fair amount of money, so I can do things. But what about other people? How can we generalize this? Because you mentioned also this idea of shaming people to do something, like don't use straws, if you use a straw. Yeah, such bullshit. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Right. Kids also brought this home when I'm flexing. Okay, I don't know about that. It's one of those divergent strategies to distract people, yeah, yeah. Of course, don't use plastic as you can avoid it, but it's such a little scapegoat that people pick up on or industry picked up on. Like, look, we're doing something. We're actually attendable for sort of normal people. By doing these kinds of attempts? Please, if you have any, yeah. So one thing that, so there's an awful lot of students who go study engineering. Yup. Not typical engineering, so you can learn about the typical one, but quite a large portion of them. What makes some sort of sense is for engineering schools, if you can get engineering schools to start, and essentially teach a more, have a track which is, which teaches a breadth of things, ranging from low tech to other things and whatever, the same could be said with biology and whatever, essentially what you do is you wedge in, about you wedge in an educational program, essentially that is basically designed to, so that more of the people coming out with these degrees are not completely dependent on being shoved into complex supply chain. That works for me, and I've done that. I've set up an industrial ecology, master's program, that's sustainability, but that's my sphere of influence, and if you're in tech, maybe, I don't know, let's imagine you are responsible for ordering a server file. Maybe you can make sure that you start to find renewable code in there.