 All right, what's up guys. This is Alex from Xtrades back to you with another weekly trade ideas list. Hope everybody had a wonderful weekend. Had a good trading week. It was very wild. We had an FOMC meeting to the Federal Reserve at a press conference and Marcus just totally sold off. So we went risk off last week. Very, very tough week. There was a lot of volatility that was tradable, honestly. And our setups that we had last week did pretty good. We had Google and Bobo puts that did pretty good. The only thing that didn't work last week was TLT. I was looking for calls on that. It actually broke through the demand zone that I was looking at, but then I actually re-entered some calls on Friday. So I bought some time on those and we'll see how that goes. Hopefully we can start filling that gap to the upside. But if you're tuning in for the first time from YouTube and you're not in our trading community, I wanted to remind everybody we are a trading community. We have a discord community. Folks a lot on education. We have alerts, whatever you need to learn how to trade. And we also have a web platform and also an application for mobile. So if you go to app.xtrades.net, plug in the link in the bio and I'll have the discord link there as well. If you want to come check us out, come check us out. You get a seven day free trial and then after that, if you choose, you can buy a membership. You can pay it on a monthly basis. You can pay on half a year basis or you can buy a lifetime membership. So come check us out, message the mods for some details on pricing, but enjoy your seven day free trial and come check us out. I believe we're a lot different than a lot of trading communities, especially a lot of discords out there that are, they're kind of just like pumpers and they don't really care about their members. We're very focused on education. We put out a lot of stuff for people and we have a pretty big team. So it's not like it's just one or two guys running the server. We have a pretty big team. So we have a very diverse team with a lot of different viewpoints on the market, a lot of different education resources, just all types of stuff. So come check us out. And that's the app.xtrades.net for the application. Honestly, I think it's worth the membership by itself. I recommend going to check it out. But then we also have the Discord as well. So I'll have the link in the bio for that as well. So for this week, we do have some more data coming up. We actually have the PCE this week. So this is actually the feds preferred inflation gauge. That's going to be on Friday, but you can see Tuesday, we have the consumer confidence and Fed Bowman. We also have new home sales. So new home sales and consumer confidence will probably be the most important for Tuesday. And then Wednesday, we have durable goods orders, durable goods minus transportation. This is a hit or miss if it's going to move the market. Thursday, we have our usual initial jobless claims. We also have the GDP revision, Fed Cook speaking. And then Fed Chair Jerome Powell is actually speaking, but it's not going to be a market mover. I don't believe it's actually just a town hall meeting with Washington educators. So it's not like the FOMC press conference or it's not like him testifying in Congress. So it's probably not going to move the market that much. And then Friday, most importantly, personal income, personal spending, PCE index, core PCE index, PCE year over year, core PCE year over year, advanced US trade balance and goods, advanced retail inventories, advanced wholesale inventories, Chicago business, barometer, and consumer sentiment at 10. So personal income, personal spending in the PCE, obviously the most important on the week, I would say it most important on the day as well. And then probably consumer sentiment and that comes out of 10. So that's where the economic calendars want to go over that real quick. Most importantly, just pay attention to PCE, probably the GDP as well. And then maybe consumer confidence on Tuesday. And then before we get into some charts, let's go ahead and go over the Almanac real quick. So Monday, September 25, we have the Dow at 42.9, the S&P at 42.9 and NASDAQ at 47.6. And these are all probabilities for the chance of the market rising. They're very neutral for Monday, Tuesday, Dow at 57.1, S&P at 47.6, NASDAQ at 52.4. So a little bit better historically on Tuesday, but still relatively neutral. And like I said, these are probabilities or the chance of the market rising Wednesday, end of September prone to weakness from end of Q3 institutional portfolio restructuring. And it's like this a lot of months towards the end of the month, you'll see a lot of big money start to rotate around different sectors, you'll see some risk off going into the end of the month. Sometimes you'll see some risk on you see some crazy buying into the end of the month. It just depends. September is historically weak. So a lot of times we'll see that weakness all the way into October. And then you'll start to see that bid start going back up in October. You can see Wednesday, we do have a bull icon. So this is a historically bullish day. Got the Dow at 61.9, S&P at 61.9, NASDAQ at 47.6. So higher probability day for the chance of rising for the stock market on Wednesday. Thursday looking neutral with Dow at 57.1, S&P at 57.1, NASDAQ at 38.1. That's our Thursday, another neutral day, no specific icon. Then Friday, historically bearish day, you can see last day of Q3 S&P down 16 of last 25. But up five of the last seven massive 5.4% rally in 2008. So during the financial crisis, probably just a big debt cap bounce. Then you can see the probability is really low. Dow at 42.9, S&P at 38.1, NASDAQ at 47.6. So very low probabilities for that day. It even has a bear icon for that day. So this is a historically bearish day on Friday, September the 29th. So that's for the Almanac. If you want to go get one, go to Amazon, type in stock Almanac, you can find, you know, the updated version, they might have the 2024 version out already. I'm not exactly sure you'll have to go do some research on that. I get a new one every single year, but I buy it towards, you know, December, January, when the year is about to end. All right, we'll go ahead and get into our setups. This week I have three. Our first is CLF here. This is a steel company, very popular in the steel sector is probably my favorite one to trade between all the steel names. My top three is probably like CLF X, which is United States Steel, and then also Newcore, Newcore is pretty good as well. But the volume is honestly the best on X and CLF. They have the highest volume and the options have the most volume and open interest. So it makes it smoother to trade spreads are better on the options and liquidity is just better overall. So CLF is actually in a falling wedge here. So you got a test one, test two, test three. So I had a downtrend, a confirmed downtrend as well after test three and follow through that's when you get that confirmed downtrend. But now you can see it's actually trying to break out of that. And then you also have the trend line support. So test one, test two, test three. So you got a perfect wedge here, you got three tests on each trend line. Now trying to break out of that to the upside, but we need to see it get over 1450. So then get over 1450, maybe make a base off that or if it just wants to go straight up over 1450, make a base somewhere else, that's a good sign as well. But with these types of patterns, sometimes it's good to see a breakout, make a base or higher low, and then it'll spring higher. So it just depends. The best thing to do is just buy time on your contracts, it'll deal with any drawdown risk. And you know, it's easier to manage if you were wrong, at least the drawdown won't be that big. If you bought 30 plus days out for expiration for swing trades, or if your day trading might be wise to not do the zero days, if you're going to do the zero days, stick to, you know, smaller size, very, very small size. That's what I've been doing. I actually got stopped out of a zero day on Friday, and it was a 60% loss in the contracts. But the thing is, is that I only took two two contracts. So I only took, you know, like $180 hit, nothing huge, nothing that's gonna, you know, kill me. So that's what you should be doing with, you know, short term contracts, cut your size in half, especially for September. September is just weak. And it's not that fun to trade. You know, if you put on a hedge at the beginning of September, smart move. And that's why we show you the seasonality. I showed you the seasonality towards the beginning of September, we were looking for the last half of September, from the 15th, and so on for the rest of the month to go down. And you can see exactly why it's exactly what we've done. It's been a little bit trickier because you've had a lot of random bounces, a lot of chop, right? But if you bought 30 plus days, and you got a nice hedge towards the last half of September, they're probably starting to pay off now because the market, you know, totally shit the bed last week. So that's just a little rant on buying time on expiration, definitely buy 30 plus days. If you're going to swing, if you're going to day trade the short term contracts, like I said, just cut your size down. There's no point in trying to gamble on those. And sometimes you need to give the market room to breathe and you can give the market room to breathe if your drawdown isn't too big. Because if your drawdown gets too big, and you're down so many dollars, you're gonna start making stupid decisions, and you're not going to want to hold. Sometimes stuff just needs room to breathe and you can do that if you go smaller, you can deal with a little drawdown. You could deal with a little bit of red. That's for CLF. I'm looking at calls need to have 1450 break over that and it can go higher price targets. Obviously, there's a little resistance right here at 1476 at the peak high right there. And then there's another peak at 1562. This is also a pretty big supply area as well. So that's your supply. It's actually a rally based drop. So maybe that's the overall area it can get to over time. But it really needs to get over 1450 and then also get over 1476, which is that peak right there. So CLF looking at calls, be patient by time on it. Next, we're going into energy. So this is XLE, which is actually been a killer. It's pretty much been running with the DXY or the dollar pretty similar to what we saw in 2022. VIX dollar energy all just going up at the same time. So it's been very interesting. A lot of volatility in the markets the past couple of weeks. Now XLE is actually starting to break a pretty important trend here. So you get a test one, test two, test three, and try to do a test four, but it wasn't able to it actually broke on the first test four candle. Even back tested right here, you can see the WIC actually touched the trend line and this little area right here. And then it tried to go lower. So this confirmation and this back test rejection is pretty nice. That kind of tells me that there's a good chance it could go a little bit lower. You can see there's a previous resistance right here. I really can't see past this 87 was the 8774. So if it does want to go lower, that's probably about as much as I could see it for right now just because this can act as a back test level. It actually kind of acted as one right here at a short term balance. And you can see once we tested the trend line and then it got back over the 8774 right here, was able to start going higher and then it broke over this swing high at 90 and so on and so forth. So this 8774 is probably just going to be a pretty big back test level. You got to test here, you got to test here, you got to test here, some trading right here, another test here. This can be a pretty high volume area where a lot of trades have taken place, which means there's a pretty good chance I could try to hold up with that area since it's a previous liquidity zone when there's a lot of people trading at. So it's probably as low as I could see it. 8774, the setup is pretty obvious though. We're looking at puts on this. If you're going to swing, obviously, like I said, 30 plus days, stick to it and don't swing weekly. It's just dumb. I know the gains are good if you're right, but if you're wrong, the drawdown is just not fun. So buy 30 plus days, stick to that. If you're going to trade swing trades, stick to the monthlies. They're just way better to trade. There's better volume and open interest to on the monthlies because all the big players and all the big shots on Wall Street, they're trading monthlies and most of the money expiring on those big expiration days for the monthlies is all coming from big money and Wall Street. So they're sticking to the monthlies. So I'll be looking at, you know, October 20th for your expiration at a minimum right now. You probably even go further out if you want to. But like I said, I can only see to 8774, that general area, if it can get down there, you know, it's probably good area to start looking for it to start bouncing again. So that's for actually looking at puts. All right. And last but not least for our individual tickers looking at Tesla here, I actually don't really like to trade this one that much. I don't remember the last time I did trade this thing. I just feel like I don't like the movement that much. There's a lot of fake outs on this thing. And it's just tough to trade sometimes. But what I do really like on this is this rally based rally demand zones. You got a rally base rally, really nice base candle right here. It actually acted as a launch pad right here and right here, the general area, at least, is able to go higher off of that. So this actually would be like a second or third test of the demand zone, which means it might not be as strong, which is why I'm probably just going to look for short term day trades off this. I'm not going to be looking for a swing specifically on this. And I'll show you why a swing trade a better entry, in my opinion, would probably be down towards this trend line right here. Yeah, test one, test two, if it came down for test three, you probably look for a bounce in that area, you know, buy 30 plus days and be able to deal with that. But right now, it did reject this longer term downtrend that I've been tracking. So you got test one, test two, test three, test four, test five, even so it's rejected this general area five times, and it's still mid range, which is why I'm just looking for a short term rebounce to the upside right here. Since it's mid range, there's really no confirmation, you know, of a bottom or really have a bounce yet. And it may need to go a little bit lower into the demand zone before trying to bounce. So I'm just going to be looking for short term day trades on the scalps, you know, just for a bounce in this general area. And if we can get that, it could make a really good day trade. I mean, it could be oversold on the hourly timeframes. It's been selling pretty hard, already filled this big gap and, you know, come into a pretty strong area right here. What is that about, you know, 243, I would watch the 244 area as well. Don't get too specific with levels, because sometimes you can, you know, lose your mind and end up missing out just because you were like a penny off. So just pay attention to general areas. If it seems like the general area is holding up, you know, as long as you have confirmation and, you know, you got some good candles to confirm your bias, you can enter a day trade. So just watch this general area looks pretty good. Tesla looking at calls, only day trades though. I wouldn't look at a swing right here. I mean, you could, but I'd rather buy, you know, towards that uptrend line. I was just showing you this longer term uptrend. That'd be a good, you know, first swing, assuming that a one day close closed over the trend line and it showed a nice reaction bounce to it. I'd be willing to go long there or maybe even this two 17 area rebounds right here. I'm sorry, rejected right here and bounce right here. That's a good area to look at a swing as well. But this is mid range right now. So maybe a little bit smarter to just stick to the short term moves as it tries to rebalance to the upside if it can do that. So let's hope it can just watch this area. Maybe needs to dip a little bit lower into the demand, but just watch the general area. So Tesla looking at calls for day trades. All right. Now we go on to the indexes. My first one we go over every week is the SPX, the S&P 500, the Spy, whatever you want to call it. Last week, we're focused on this 4, 4, 30. I mentioned that I could see it going down a little bit more. Let's see. This is Friday's close. And I said, maybe need to go a little bit lower before try to bounce at that 4, 4, 30, which it did for about two days. To his day, it kind of bounced off of it. And then we bounced a little bit on Wednesday as well during the FOMC. But after it was over, that's when, you know, we went full risk off. We broke under the 4, 4, 30. As you can see, this big candle confirmed that. And we also broke the up trend line. So you got to test one, test two. We had our test three on Tuesday and it bounced right there. So you had trend line plus support at 4, 4, 30. So you got test three of the trend line meeting right with 4, 4, 30 right here. That's why we kind of bounced on Tuesday. I can even show you on the 15 minute. So here was Tuesday right here. This is the same trend line I just showed you. Here's 4, 4, 30 bounced off the general area of the trend line. And then once we got back over 4, 4, 30, the velocity did pick up. We had a nice little ramp up right here. Once I got back over that really nice run, even gapped up a little bit on Wednesday. But then we went into choppy trading as it does before every FOMC meeting. And you can see we write at two o'clock. This is when the interest rate decision came out. They paused. They didn't raise or cut interest rates. Andrew Powell was kind of just 50-50 on if they would raise again. They did no mention of cuts. Nothing like that. It was actually a little bit confusing. They didn't really give a straight answer on anything. They just said we could or couldn't raise rates again. So there could be one more hike, you know, coming. Who knows? We have no idea. I don't think anybody really knows. There really wasn't any hints of any sort. So we're back to data dependency, which is just annoying. I mean, we've been data dependent this whole rate cycle. So as long as the Fed is data dependent, markets and traders are also data dependent. So we just kind of go one data set at a time. If it looks like crap, you know, you kind of have to second guess, you know, how the economy is looking, how the Fed is going to react to it. And you just kind of second guess everything. Because I mean, it's just so uncertain. There's just so much uncertainty in the markets right now. It's crazy. So yeah, I wanted to highlight what happened once we lost that 4, 4, 30, which is our level of focus. Just awful. Then even the next day is big gap down. And I'm hoping that eventually we could fill this gap up to the upside. But right now, so far, we did break under this big demand zone. So this week, before we try to go long or before we try to catch any bounces, we need to see it reclaiming 4,325, which is just the low of this bar right here. And that's also a little back test level from 2022 over here. So 4,325 is pretty huge. You got a bounce here or I'm sorry, a rejection here. You got a bounce over here, bounce of the general area right here. So the, you know, the 4320s is pretty big. So we need to get back over that support. As long as they can reclaim back over that, there's a good chance that the market could bounce. We saw it on Friday. So look, it dipped just a little bit below 4,325. And then once we got this bar back over it, there's a crazy algo pump. I mean, it's just insane. And then it's just a crazy algo dump right after that. And these are huge move guys. I mean, these are ginormous for an intraday basis. You know, this is almost half a percent. This is almost half a percent dump. So very big moves. And so it's towards the close. I just want to highlight once it broke under that 4,325 and reclaimed it. There was a pretty good shoot up right there. And the general area held right here as well. We had a nice, you know, continuation of it right here. So just this 4,330s to 4,320s. Just watch that area. If we can get back over the 4,325, you know, maybe we could see a bounce, but need to see that first. Otherwise, we really have nothing holding us up here. So we broke this low, which takes us down to our next demand or base out area. That's going to be about, you know, 4,283, 4,280s or so. If we start closing under this, you know, more consistently, there's a good chance it's just going to flush back down to that. Since we did break the support and probably try to hold up about there. Yeah, that's how it's looking. I mean, we have a level right here as well, this little low at 4,335. So we'll need to watch that one as well. That's just this low from was that August 18th. So we need to get back over that as well. So the 4,335 to 4,325 need to reclaim over that for the bulls. Or if it keeps staying under that, there's a good chance it's just going to keep flushing down to this little demand and probably try to curl up about there, at least on the short term. This little demand that we were focused on is now broken. We closed under it. So it is void and I do have to get rid of it. So we'll just watch the regular lows, just draw a regular line. You know, 4,325 or 4,328, whatever you want to call it, we need to get back over that. And that's the most recent kind of structure lows. So as long as we get back over that, maybe we can get back up, fill the gap, fill this big sale imbalance from the FOMC. Otherwise, really good chance just going to flush down to the 43. I'm sorry, the 42 80s. I got a showing you right there. That's a pretty good demand zone. It's a rally base rally demand zone. So that's my next price target to the downside. If it keeps, you know, closing under this 4,320s to 4,330s area, good chance it's just going to flush down. So watch that carefully. All right. Next, we're going into the QQQ. So last week, we were focused on 369, which is this low right here. And we're also focused on the trend line. Just test one, test two. So open for a test three bounce off that. It kind of got it on Monday is very short lived. As you can see, we actually got all the way up to 371. So it wasn't awful on Monday. We did get a bounce off the 369. So I was looking for dip buys around that area at 369. So here's Monday, actually bounced off of it to the tick. So I had a pretty good bounce off that even got over the trend line, which you can see is diagonal and trending right here. And then once we got back under it, this is where stuff kind of started to get a little bit slower. So we had a break under right here, market sold off, ended up going back up, but we never reclaimed back over it. Chopped out right here. FOMC came out. And that's when we went lower. So we weren't able to hold the 369s. We actually had two consecutive closes over the 369. Keep in mind, this is a mid range support. So this is not like a major, major low like down here. This is mid range. This is between an extreme low and extreme high. So I really wasn't too confident with this little support right here in the first place. It's not my favorite. I was more confident in this demand right here from the last huge buying balance we had. So this is our demand. I was looking for bounces off 367. That was an area I also mentioned you could look to buy the dip and it worked pretty good for this one day on Tuesday. Once Wednesday came, FOMC came, you can see we just kind of started slicing through it and then eventually we opened below it. So this zone went void and that's why it's not there anymore. But we did a pretty good bounce off the levels of focus, which is, you know, 369 got that on Monday, kind of got it on Tuesday. But Tuesday was more of this rally based rally we were focused on last week as well. Really nice week and push up off it right there. I can show you right here. So it's really nice on Tuesday, just how you would want to see it. So not too bad for day trading, not great for swing trading, unless you, you know, took some puts on the break of the trend line. But this week right now, the QQQ hasn't really broken the major structure low yet, like SPX has. I showed you an SPX. The low has already been breached and closed under QQQ actually still has this low holding. There's a little rally based rally demand zone right here. So as long as 354.70s is holding, I would feel good about a potential hold up of this area. But it looks like it could just go a tab bit lower. As you can see, it closed at 357.91 and this little support low was that 358.50s, which is this right here. So it closed under that two days in a row closed under it right here on Thursday closed under it right here on Friday, which then takes you to the next low. Unless for some reason we want to gap up on Monday and just get back over the 358, which is this low. If it can get back over that, there's a good chance it'll try to fill the gap back up. Maybe we can get up to 363. It's a little area right here. Honestly, this would probably be the most important thing. This little gap right here. So that goes up to 364. If we can get back over 358.50 and this holds a support, look for the gap fill to the upside probably find resistance about there. Maybe try to fill up the whole cell imbalance. Not exactly sure. All they can do is go one level at a time and right now it probably see resistance if it filled the gap completely. Try to see short term resistance, but these two consecutive closes right now. This is telling me it does have a little bit of a chance to go to that 354.71, which is this low right here. Like I said, I can try to hold up about there and that meets with a pretty good demand zone as well. This little base candle right here. So that's your two scenarios where either Monday, the features look good. Best case scenario, you know, we open over 358.50s tries to make a base there and maybe we can bounce into that. Otherwise, if it's, you know, opening under this or features are not looking good, it's probably just going to go to the 354.70s. So just pay attention to the open. If it's opening over 358.58 or just 358.50, maybe look for a bounce or try to look for, you know, some upside momentum, depending on the VIX and dollar and other things. If it's opening below, really good chance is going to be, you know, continuation down to the 354s, which is the low right here. So that's your two scenarios. Just pay attention to the open and you'll have a better idea. Alright, in our last equity index, looking at IWM last week, I was actually focused on this demand zone. I was expecting, you know, pretty much a bounce or, you know, bounce attempts until it started breaking under, you know, 181.60, which we determined the 181.60 was the neckline for the head and shoulders can't see the head and shoulders, you know, it's your first shoulder, second, third, so first shoulder, head, second shoulder, as your three parts of the sequence or the pattern. So we ended up failing the demand. We didn't really get too many bounce attempts. I can maybe look on the short term and find a couple like we had one right here from Wednesday. And then that's pretty much it. Just that one day for Wednesday and then one here on Tuesday. But once we started closing under the 181.61, which is the neckline as well, we did break through those demands. So we'll go ahead and remove these since they're void now. The 181.61 was the neckline. That's how we determine that you probably call this 180 area as well. Another piece of the neckline. So anywhere from 181.60 to 180 flat was a pretty good neckline. Now it's broken, it's closed under. It also filled this little gap basically, I wouldn't say it's completely filled, but it's basically there basically all the way filled. But I'm not really seeing any support or anything. No really very clean demand zone. You can maybe call this a demand zone right here. It's just kind of choppy, but it did lead to a really nice buy imbalance to the upside. So maybe we can watch that area. This is probably the lowest I can see it goes. It may be a little bit lower down to 174 or specifically 174.69. There's also a little Wicklow right here at 168.78 and a Wicklow at 167.40s. So that's pretty much your levels in terms of more downside. I would personally probably look for it to start holding up. This is a really choppy area. So I wouldn't expect you know the IWM without some major catalyst to just start knifing through this little chop area. It's probably going to try to hold up a general area, but it looks like it can go just a little bit lower. And this is more clear cut than SPX or QQQ. SPX you know closed just under the structure low as I showed you QQQ has not closed any under any structure load just yet. IWM closed under your neck line and it's starting to get you know, more mid range and not at a structure load just yet either. But this is a recent structure low and it broke. So now we're starting to go into the early you know 2023 structure lows just not quite there yet. But watch this demand zone. I feel like I go a little bit lower and try to hold up there. Maybe you could try to buy the dip at this demand. Like I said, it's a pretty ugly demand zone. Maybe it's a drop base rally type of sequence, or you could draw like rally base rally. But either way, this is focusing on this area that led to a big buy imbalance in this sequence right here. Similar to what we focused on up here to find this bounce area of you know, weeks ago and to find that short term bounce there as well. Definitely watch this area. You're focusing on this that led to this big buy imbalance. Even this gap up candle right here, those you know, up 3.6%. So this is a big gap up candle. So maybe something happened in this area to lead to this buy imbalance and it could be buyers waiting in this area. That's going to be like I said about 174 60s. So keep an eye on that. I would expect it to maybe go a little bit lower. Now that this gap is filled though, there's a good chance, you know, after a gap is filled, it will try to counter reverse to the upside. If you feel a gap down, it'll try to use that to support and bounce there. But you know, I would feel better about looking for this area to bounce, looking for that area to hold up. If that butters though, this area, I would just start looking for that, you know 168 70s low that I highlighted that comes from right here and that low that comes from right there. So that's your lowest for IWM. I expected to maybe go just a little bit lower into demand, but not too much lower, but another two points to the downside. And if it wanted to go back up, obviously, I can get bullish again. If it were to get back over the neckline support, it's going to be, you know, over 181 60s, it would absolutely need to get back over that for me to, you know, start buying it again. So either reclaim that or pull down into demand right here. That would be my two areas to buy calls at. If it were to start closing back over 181 60 or if it were to bounce off this 174 60s at demand. All right, next, we're going into the VIX. So I think last week we're focused on this big candle. It ended up holding that 1273 level of focus, which we've been, you know, talking about for pretty much every video for the last couple months. This 1273 is just a huge support now turned into a triple bottom support, basically mentioned this big candle, this big bid into the VIX could be giving a sign, but we need to see a little bit more from it. So we needed to see first to close over the 2021 low at 1410 and also 1460, which is this low where you see the arrows. We did get it in this one candle on Wednesday after the FMC meeting. That signaled us for a move over the 1553s needed a close over that. We got a close over that plus a 17. So this actually increased very quickly. And I would argue that it was actually because we're able to get over that 1460 right here. That kind of started to bring fear into the market. Once we got over these little structure lows, and this just put, you know, the icing on the cake. Once we get over this little structure low 1553, I've mentioned once it gets over 1553 over here, right here, right here, velocity ramps up very hard. Volatility ramps up with a lot of velocity. So that's what happened once I got over 1553 right here, all happened in one candle. It actually gapped up that Thursday at three in the morning and just kept going. And then once the cash session opened, kind of shopped for a little bit, ended up selling off and that ended up being a pretty big fake out because it just ramped right back up. But like I said, all that needed to do was get over that 1553 to kind of see that ramp up as well as that 1460 close. Once you got over that, that played into the move over 1553. So you just kind of take one level at a time and try to put the pieces together. What it's going to do, we have big velocity and a close over 1460 on this bar, which then leads to big velocity over 1553. It actually gapped up. So this happened at three in the morning. So the VIX was already getting over 1553 before the cash session or the New York trading hours even open. That's a pretty good sign of, you know, volatility was just totally screwed and it's going to go higher. But now we're at 1708 right near this wick high right here. So I'm not sure if it's going to go higher from here. Honestly, I need to see a little bit more. This close, could it convince me that it would go higher? This is also a 15% move in one candle. And the VIX doesn't always just go straight up like that. You know what I mean? It'll have a little bit of turbulence before trying to go higher because it's just a volatility index. You know, it's not going to just go up 20% or 15% two days in a row. Sometimes it needs to cool off. You can see right here at a big day, 18% at another day, up 10%. So this back in, you know, 2023 of March, you'd had two consecutive three consecutive days of big VIX. But, you know, a 15% bar after a 7% bar is a good chance. You know, the volatility was going to try to come back down before trying to go higher, which it did actually on Friday. You can see once it got back under 17 right here on Friday, the market actually did catch a bid. So trading wasn't too bad on Friday. Market did try to bounce, but you know, eventually had some turbulence. As you can see, it started ramp back up down here. Had a big sell off again right here, right off 17. And it ramped right back up. So just crazy. I mean, you can get tossed around in this if you're not careful. And these VIX moves on Friday is just proof of that as well as on equities. It all just plays together. So right now we're focused on 17 because that's the level we're at. We're at, you know, 17, 19. I'm not sure what the VIX will open at. It's going to depend on the futures at the futures gap up a little bit. Obviously, it's probably going to open under 17. And then maybe we can get back down and the market will try to bounce. But if we start closing over 17 on Monday, I would not feel that great about us, you know, being able to bounce. And then probably try to go up to the 1880s WIC high, which is right here. I'm looking not too too worried yet for the markets because the VIX is not over 20s. Once it starts, it starts getting over 20s and closing over 20. That's when fear really starts to pick up. Option premiums get a little bit pricier and the markets, you know, can have a lot more fear priced in. And you might have to start shorting the rips at that point. Once it starts getting over the 20s, but right now, not quite there yet. So maximum I can see to the upside 1880s, which is this WIC high. If it starts getting over that, I mean, the move to 20 is obvious 20 plus. So this will depend on, you know, Monday's open. I feel like Monday's open could play a huge role on whether the VIX is going to continue down. We can start closing back under 17 or the 1708. I'd feel good about it going lower. Obviously, like I said, if it starts closing over this on Monday and holding above the 17, probably just going to go up to 1880s. So I need to see some signals on that. You can see, I mean, you could actually use, you know, these VIX levels for day trading. You can see once it got back under 17, right at the open, I mean, the market pretty much caught a bid for, you know, an hour or two, VIX fell pretty hard below 17. And then once it came back up, you can see it kind of acted as resistance again right here. That could have made a good dip by 12 for, you know, calls and so on and so forth. So you just have to look at, you know, the one day levels on the 15 minute timeframe to make, you know, day trade decisions. But as for the VIX, just watch the 1708. You need to see a close under it to go lower. You need to see, you know, keep holding this above it in order to go to 1880s. Next, we're going into the DXY, the US dollar. Last week, I was looking for a move up to 10580s. We pretty much got that. You can see it topped out right at 10580s. This is this peak high and it's still making higher lows, higher highs for this structure. Obviously, it would need to get over this to make a like a really big higher high. You can see overall higher, high, higher, low, higher, high, higher, low, higher, high. So it's just it keeps going. And the thing is we need to get back under the 10470s to 10440s in order to start seeing, you know, the dollar actually starts selling off. Otherwise, this can just keep acting as a base. And you can see actually why I drew out this zone. So we actually drew out this little red zone last week. All they did was, you know, take this high and go to this back test level over here. So you got, you know, 10470 to 10440s. And look, we did actually did on Wednesday. So I dipped all the way down into 10470s and then just totally, totally ripped off of it. And that's just more proof that this is just a back test level acting in support. So here's Wednesday pulled into our level that we've been focused on. That's why we need to see it close under this on the one day. Otherwise, it's going to keep doing this or attempting to. And that's arguably why it went higher as well as the FOMC meeting. I mean, FOMC is a total wild card and it's totally random. But you could argue that, you know, the dollar was setting up for a higher move anyways, despite the news. If you paid attention to no news and it pulled into this level or this back test level overall, you probably expected to bounce. That's why I need to see it close under 10440s. If it starts closing under the 10440s, it's pretty much a free fall and the dog could go lower, you know, back down to the 10350s, 103s, etc. Right now, though, it looks like we do have big resistance 10580s. I really don't expect the dog to go too much higher from here. It's kind of just hanging around out here. I feel like I can pull back from this general area at 10480s. It might be dependent on the data. So PCE on Friday. And that's the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. So definitely pay attention to that. You could definitely give a pretty big insight into whether we're going to get another rate hike or, you know, how the fight against inflation is going. So definitely pay attention to PCE on Friday. Otherwise, I mean, technically here on DXY, I really can't see past 10580s. And that's just because this is big resistance right here. How to struggle with two wicks right here. So still making that, you know, like I said, higher low, higher high sequence, though. So it's still an uptrend. I'm guessing it's still riding the moving averages too. Yep. This is your nine and 21 cloud. Mac do still positive. So a lot of things are still positive on this. And the overall structure, like I said, that it needs to get under to break this momentum or break this overall structure is to get under that 10440s needs to get under that damn level. And it could definitely go lower. And maybe the market be a little bit more positive. But right now, not too much looking great. I mean, equities right near structure lows or, you know, slightly under them. IWM, especially a broke the structure low at DXY also at major resistance. So maybe we need to see a dollar sell off a little bit harder. And the VIX, you know, to go back under 17, we see the market bounce. See the DXY reject here. But I really can't see past 10580s. Obviously, if it gets over 10580s, I've showed you. It's just all free space right here. And these are 2022 zones and areas that we traded up from when we were having peak inflation and huge, huge inflation readings. Definitely we higher than they are right now. So, you know, if the dollar starts getting over 10580s, it's, you know, technically it's not looking that great. But I feel pretty good about it not getting over that currently. But we'll have to see. Just watch this 10580s. Maybe look for rejection there in the market could bounce, but still holding that higher low, higher high sequence. So play safe. If you want to, you know, wait for a real signal. Wait for, you know, a big one day bar reacting to 10580s or wait for a one day close under one of four 40s before expecting it to go too much lower. Otherwise, might keep marching up on the shorter term timeframes or at least keep going with this higher, higher low, higher high sequence. That's for the DXY. Hope you guys enjoy this video. 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