 Good afternoon ladies and gents and welcome to this monthly market webinar with me Michael Huston and my colleague in Canada, Colin Zizinski, he will be joining us shortly, just waiting at the moment for the Philadelphia Fed survey to come out, just doing a quick risk warning as we speak. I think it has actually just come out, someone has just tweeted 20.7, actually has come out on the Bloomberg, yes it has now, so that's 20.7 which is a slight improvement on what was being expected, we're expecting a number of 19.8 and that contrasts quite significantly with the empire manufacturing number yesterday which was extremely disappointing. So make of that what you will with respect to where these markets are going next. Obviously as a result of that we've seen a significant rebound in equity markets, certainly the FTSE from being 1% lower on my Bloomberg is now 0.75% lower. So we've seen a bit of a pullback on the back of that some Philly Fed number, certainly much better than expected. I think expectations have been lowered as a result of that empire manufacturing number tomorrow but I'm guessing a lot of you are basically logging on to this to try and make sense of what the hell is going on at the moment because the volatility that we've seen this week I think compares, I was going to say compares quite favorably but that's probably the wrong choice of words, compares to some of the volatility that we saw in 2011 and 2012 at the height of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and certainly the moves in equity markets do seem to reflect a great deal of jitteriness amongst investors about where we go next and to be quite honest it's been a long time since I've seen moves like this. We've been in a five-year bull market, every dip has been pretty much bought into but this time feels different and Colin and I are going to discuss why, is there potentially any further downside in stocks? Again it's very difficult to say, all we can do is look at the charts in front of us, we can look at the price action and we can come to a decision based on that. Now US markets are currently lower, we're going to start with them so I'm going to throw this across to Colin because I know you want to talk to our delegates about US markets and you want to start with what Colin? I'd like to start with a doubt today Michael please. Okay so I'm going to open this, saved Dow chart and this is a weekly chart, if you need me to change it and pull it lower I'll break it down a little bit more Colin, I'm quite happy to do that. Okay well let's start here with the longer term perspective and then we'll flip to a shorter term chart for short term trading and I think what Michael put up here pretty much says it all, I mean we've been going pretty much straight up for the last several years and in particularly since the summer of 2011, if we look at this long term chart here, we had a correction in early 2010 and we had a correction in about this time during 2011, it was actually August of 2011, both of those times coincided with the end of the previous two US QE programs, so QE 1 and QE 2 ended and what these QE programs are doing is basically you have the Fed plowing tons of money into the financial system, the path of least resistance is into the stock market so with increased money supply you've got two things, one it inflates stock prices and two it drives down the US dollar and in both cases when those were unwound you had a rally in the US dollar, a 10% plus correction in global stock markets, what are we getting this time around, we've got the corrections been kicking in, in the US dollar we had the big rally already back in August, September, now initially stock markets ignored it, now we're seeing that it's catching up to stock markets as well, so this is a combination of a liquidity correction, a seasonal correction and factored in with that the troubles that we're seeing in Europe particularly in Germany right now, but just to focus on the market here, if we look at 2014 in September we had a higher high on the US 30, we had a lower high and an overbought on the stochastics, so that's a negative divergence, we've actually had a negative divergence kind of growing through much of the year and this time it all seems to finally have come together and actually knocked it down, now I think that's significant in some context because it's not just the down that's broken down, it's also been related markets as well and I think that more than anything has helped drive this risk off scenario that we've been seeing unfold over the past few days. Absolutely, so we're at a point where the markets were overdue for a correction anyways, whether it was overbought, whether it's QE3, whether it's seasonals, there were multiple factors saying that we were more than ready for a correction, the yellow light has been flashing for months, the biggest one was the big rally in the US dollar which said everybody else on the currency side was looking at staring down the barrel of a much more hawkish fed, we had the US dollar going up, we had commodities getting crushed and the one thing left was the one last shoe to fall was the stock market, that's what we're seeing now, so interestingly this break of 16.3.10 that Michael has shown here on the weekly charts is very significant and yesterday's action was also interesting, could we go to say a one hour chart please Michael? So a couple things I wanted to highlight here on this, so we've had the markets in the States getting pounded, pounded, pounded and it took out 16.3.10, we saw a first wave of selling, then we saw a second wave of selling when it took out 16,000, the round number there and I think what you're seeing is probably you had yesterday multiple waves of stop losses getting hit and likely some margin related selling as well, so a lot of forced and automatic liquidations in the market, it just so happened that when the beige book came out yesterday afternoon and basically it was a steady state of the course, everything's kind of humming along, we did get some short covering and some bargain hunting, however this has been contained on the upside to about 16.180, it's still short of that 16.3.10 support level we broke, so we're still in the downtrend but if we looked at today's action, again in and around this 15.900, we were starting to get some support so it looks like we do have a short-term double bottom here, we are back above 16.000 but really to see any kind of a sign where we would take this as a serious rebound, you'd have to clear that 16.190 at a minimum and really you'd want to see the 16.3.10 but it looks for now like we're kind of going into a sideways range for the US market could continue today, we can see it getting kicked around on both sides as data comes out throughout the course of the day, we still have a lot of numbers and there's a lot of big reactions, Netflix is down over 20% today after it's missed badly on subscriber numbers and earnings, we've got eBay's down just under 5%, even Apple's off a little bit, they've got another big product launch event coming up later today too, so lots of news right through the day. Okay, that's absolutely right Colin, the break below 16.310 was important, certainly in the context of this particular breakout but there was also another break that was just as important and I think the reason we're seeing the rally at the moment is because of a very, very big chart point that I've got on the S&P 500 and that can be seen on this chart here, I've drawn a trend line through to 2011 lows, look where it comes in, we've rebounded right off it, it's around about 1825 and that was again the lows that we saw yesterday, so we can see again it's a similar sort of story playing out, we've also got the April lows as well around about the same sort of level, so between 1815 and 1825 we've got a significant area of support which basically could well act as a short-term base for this particular move down, but we saw a very strong rally yesterday as Colin indicated into the close but for me we weren't able to basically get back above 1875 and that 1875 area I think for me is particularly key, not so much for the S&P but it's also the 200-day moving average, we've closed below the 200-day moving average for the first time since late 2012 and that for me is also very, very significant, particularly if you also look at it through the prism of the small cap 2000 because again here is a similar sort of story that we saw on the Dow, the only difference was look at this breakout ladies and gents, this more than anything is key and I think it will be key to the future direction of US markets, we broke below 1077 those series of lows on this weekly chart this week, we closed below it last at the end of last week, we've tried to get back through it this week on that rally that we saw late last night in the US, we failed to do that, so we've seen a strong rebound on the Russell this week and we can see that and that's borne out by these daily candles here, look at that, how important is that level now becoming, so for me I think if you're looking for a leading indicator for a rebound in US markets I think the small cap is it, the foot soldiers I think as you called them in a webinar a month ago Colin, yes absolutely and in particular because the small caps and the momentum place have been leading this decline, while the Dow has actually been trailing it's been lagging and that that actual breath that had been showing it had been a bearish signal on on breadth of the bull market was that the bullishness was getting contained into a smaller and smaller number of large cap stocks while whereas the troops were actually going the other way into retreat as we've seen here and these breakdown points that Michael's highlighted here, this one on the S&P and also the one we were showing on the Dow, if these rallies get contained by these breakout points where they can't get back above them it's a confirmation that yes you've had a trading rebound but you're not out of the woods until you clear those levels you're still in the downtrend and you still have the potential for more weakness. I think you could see weakness flatly continue for the next month if we think about the historical seasonality is that the worst time of the year for the stock market is usually about middle of August to about middle of October this year the stock market sell-off started about a month late it started in mid-September it easily we could see the back end of the of this volatile period for markets push into November the reason for that is that we've got we're into earning season now we have the US Fed meeting at the end of the month where they're going to end Kiwi 3 plus in the first week in November we've got US mid-term elections so there's there's lots of news in the States that could keep markets choppy and volatile for some time and that doesn't even begin to cover what what could happen in the rest of the world. Exactly in Europe obviously is a big concern I mean we've got the asset quality review on the 26th of October and we've got the ECB rate meeting at the beginning of November and also obviously we have non-farm payrolls at the beginning of November as well so you know what's what's driving European markets well I did a video earlier this week on the DAX those of you haven't already seen it I've already missed about a free 400 point move basically if we look at the DAX and the breakout saw the end of last week this is a potential head and shoulders reversal double top double bottom whatever you want to call it it's a big big level the fact that we've broken below 9,000 8,900 what we really need to see happen now on the DAX is for a rebound back above 9,000 to even suggest that the current downside thrust that we're seeing in these markets is currently at an end now we have declined four weeks in a row obviously this is a fourth week we are on a Thursday there's still quite a bit of distance to go before we close on Friday so you know I'm not going to say with any conviction that you know we can't go lower but I'm also not going to say that we can't squeeze all the way back higher again equity markets have a habit of doing exactly that as and we certainly seeing evidence of the volatility I'm in the markets so far thus far but I think at a minimum while we stay below this key resistance level here 8,900 then I think we can definitely come all the way back certainly to 8,000 over the course of the next few weeks but even as low as 7,740 you know this is a classic reversal pattern and you know certainly while this resistance level holds then I think there's a very good chance we can see the DAX starts to lose a little bit of ground but in the context of the overall uptrend ladies and gentlemen you know what we what we're seeing is a correction is nothing it's a very very minor correction but I think don't underestimate the importance of the break of this level here it's held throughout 2014 and at the end of 2013 it's gone it's history we need to get back above it to stabilize so that's the DAX is around about 8,500 now certainly potential for us to go to 8,000 in the short to medium term brings me on to the UK 100 unless you want to add something else Colin I just wanted to add one quick thing about the context of this correction this is a normal healthy correction in the stock markets we get these from time to time yes they're they're rough and yes they're from emotionally but they're difficult to go through but they're needed to we can't have the markets going straight up forever or you end up in the kind of imbalances that cause the the tech crash of 2000 or the housing crash of 2008 and and so these are quite significant and so this is the kind of questions that you know that people have been asking me and one of them is I said we'll put this in context I said first of all reporters nobody calls me when the Dow goes up 400 points in a day they all call me when now goes down 400 points in a day and and if you're a long term if you if you've been in the markets for a long time you've been in a bull market for years you've had you've had tons of major advances over the last three four years and and so this is a normal correction of that but the losses we've seen so far as you said Michael relative to the gains of the last several years are pretty small they've been and even the 2010 2011 corrections which which seems so major at the time ended up being speed bumps exactly and again if you were looking at the UK the footsie 100 here and we can see straight away that we touched a low today of 6070 and that's round about where the 200 week moving average is so the 200 week moving average let's look at how important that has been over the course of the last few years and we can see that it did act as support in 2012 and since then we haven't really been back that close to it but also look at the highs in 2012 look at the lows in 2013 and now look where we are now so for me I think even if we do fall further on the on the footsie 100 I think the downside should be limited to the 6000 level simply because it was a significant support resistance area in the past so I don't think that the bottom is going to fall out of the market but what I do think is that what we've seen so far over the course of the past few days is a market that's very ill at ease with itself and as such we're going to get very choppy moves we could see we could see further losses most definitely on the DAX quite probably on the footsie but I don't think we'll see the bottom fall out of the market and certainly this risk off this risk off sort of new risk off sentiment that's coming out if it really if investors really were concerned about the bottom falling out of the market gold would be a hell of a lot higher agreed and so what we're into really is and we've seen a lot of this month on the on the daily basis last week we had in particularly in the states we were running one day up one day down and now it seems as though it's been almost twice in a day this week where where we're seeing these big reversals so it is a market that's more favorable to short-term trading that there are a lot of reversals there are opportunities for people on both sides to take advantage of but at the same time not to get too too in love with with either direction because things can change very rapidly so let's look at gold at the moment we're in a bit of a short-term uptrend the big big level on gold is 1180 we've tested that on a number of occasions over the past few months and years and that for me is really the it's the tipping point for a move lower we can see that from the lows that we saw at the end of 2013 it's been the lows this year and it was the lows as well again in mid 2013 so this particular level is very very important certainly on the dailies we go all the way back if you then bring it into the four-hour chart we're in a short-term uptrend we are trending higher but we will run into significant areas of resistance anywhere near 1250 and 1270 but at the moment gold looks to be it looks to be in a case of buying the dip at the moment and while equity markets remain under pressure and there is uncertainty about what the Fed is going to do next gold is going to remain significantly underpinned people have been pricing in arise in US interest rates sometime in the next six to nine months I don't think now that is particularly likely and it's that even even taking into account today's US economic data yes the industrial production data was good the fully fed was good weekly jobless claims hit the lowest levels since 2000 but despite that there is still an awful lot wrong with the US economy as much as there is an awful lot right yes it's the best of a pretty poor bunch but if anyone thinks that the US economy can continue to improve against the backdrop of a slowing Europe a slowing China and a slowing Japan then they're extremely optimistic because 50% of S&P 500 earnings come from overseas and given the growth outlook particularly in Europe and a slowdown in China and concerns about the Japanese economy really I think further upside for the S&P 500 could be difficult to attain they had a couple things there Michael sure first of all going back with the on the S&P earnings and with the with the answer with with the US dollar rally the US dollar rally about 8% about six weeks that's a massive move for a currency and and one of the things we will probably see that impact is on corporate earnings and guidance going forward because of the the for the S&P 500 companies that are multinationals their overseas earnings are going to come in at a much lower rate than they were earlier in the year and that people were expecting so that can be a drag on earnings absolutely the other thing to watch for is actually Michael could you put the crude oil for a second I can indeed I'm just bring it up I'm just doing a little bit of analysis on euro dollar I lost my what WTI or Brent WTI please okay would be great just something else to note here so we've had WTI drop from about $105 to $80 in the in the last sorry say 105 to 80 in the last few weeks so that's like a 20% drop that is going to work its way into inflation and and I'm actually finally saw the prices at the pump actually start to go down last weekend I couldn't believe it but it's true and and so that will take away that will ease some of the inflation pressures in the United States as well as commodity prices have come down so much and and also the rights in the U.S. dollar also takes as some of the inflation pressures out of the United States so that's one of the Fed's biggest worries has always been that you know that things will start to to get out of control as they have in the past this time it looks like inflation will probably stay contained that takes the pressure off the Fed to move on interest rates are one of the things that does because they do have that employment and and dual employment and inflation mandate so employment is going pretty good inflation was starting to take up inflation's probably not going to take up very far with commodity prices crashing like that I've just been asked about the extreme move in the 10-year treasury on the U.S. so let's have a quick look at that because certainly that was extreme yeah we can see that on this daily chart but I think what this is telling me you know lower yields you know are they sustainable I think what the market surprising in is the pricing in the fact that the Fed's not going to raise rates anytime soon but having said that looking at the long shadows on those prices there's certainly an awful lot of what I would call selling interest on U.S. treasuries underneath that 2% level that we saw that we saw posted not only today but also yesterday now we're just getting some news flashes hitting the wires now James Bullard who's an FMC member is saying the Fed should consider a delay in ending QE so that is actually a significant headline I'm just about to tweet that right now as we speak it's important to remember that the markets may react to that in a knee jerk fashion they may not Bullard is not a voting member of the FOMC so it sounds to me as if the Fed if he speaks for the rest of the Fed then they are significantly concerned about the global growth prospects and they certainly did indicate that in the FOMC minutes so that's something else to consider you know what if the Fed doesn't actually end its bond buying program at the end of this month what does that mean stocks then you know there's there's there's so much to consider so James Bullard does he really reflect the rest of the views of the FOMC we've got a whole host of other Fed members due to speak in the next few days on Friday we've got Charles Plotter he he wants a tightening of monetary policy so you've got the Fed you've got Mr. Bullard on the one side saying delay the ending of QE and on the other side you've got Charles Plotter saying you need to raise interest rates what it's important to remember is that James Bullard is not on the FOMC next year and neither is Charles Plotter so really you know do you really pay attention to what either of them says given the fact that neither of them will be on the voting committee next year tomorrow we've also got Esther George speaking she's fairly hawkish we got lacquer and we got Richard Fisher so at the moment Fed members really keep you God shut because now markets are coming back it's an absolute mess and it's very very difficult to really establish where things are going at the moment but certainly that statement is certainly just another piece of narrative that really traders and investors can do without can I just know something here Michael yeah so since this news has come out we had just before the that came out the Dow was down 200 points it's popped up to being down about 40 points and now it's down about 50 to 60 points so we you can see that through this that trading is very skittish right now people are there's a lot of uncertainty and indecision out there and and we can see significant swings off of off of really any news item that that comes out there which brings me to my next point don't try and trade for the sake of trading trade on levels levels is very very important I think in the context of when you when you're looking to trade a particular market everyone at the moment is talking a euro dollar lower you know and I think people think that it's a fairly easy that's been a fairly easy trade to make but for me it's really not about what everyone else thinks it's basically what the levels are telling you and for me I think there's certainly potential given the volatility that we're seeing at the moment is that euro dollar at the moment is looking to be a bit of a buy the dip trade and certainly if you draw a trend line through the four hour chart that certainly reflects the case the Fed does not want an inordinately strong dollar if it does the the the effects of it could actually help bringing bringing stock valuations down because of the strength of the dollar hitting forward earnings so now we're getting the countdown will we get QE for I think the Fed will end its bond buying program but now we're going to get more splits on the committee with respect to what we do next because the ECB will not do QE Colin yes we're definitely seeing this and also I've been seeing the some strengthening in the in the pound lately as well I was looking at a trading around 160 earlier in the day so yeah you did it was trading it's now above 160 again and again what we're seeing here see what we're seeing here could this be a descending wedge it could be if we draw a line through these lows here we'll knock out that line there does that look like a wedge to you the descending way it certainly one looks like one that's starting to form and yeah and a bullish one too and on top of that if you look down to the stochastics you do have a positive divergence kicking in finally after it had gotten I mean that's a huge oversold through through August in the first part of September and I mean I understand there were lots of reasons why the pound declined through the through the summer between the US dollar rally and the and the referendum but now that both of those are kind of subsiding we are seeing some interest kind of starting to come back come back into the pound although technically I do think it's got some more work to do but it does look like it's it's getting to the point where it seems to be start trying to form a bottom it just hasn't started to go up yet but if you see a breakout of that wedge would be quite significant I guess the question now is is the Bank of England in a position to start raising rates at the beginning of next year between Europe having problems and the election coming I think that's doubtful I don't think that given the weak manufacturing PMIs that we've been seeing those disappointing retail sales numbers inflation is still stripping average earnings yes it is at a 10 year low at 1.2% so why raise rates people talk about normalization of monetary policy but what is normalization of monetary policy in an environment where debt levels are still extremely high and even a 25 or 50 basis point rate hike could actually cause an awful lot of difficulty to an awful lot of people so you know for me you know you can listen to the narrative as much as you like certainly the moving averages are crossing over so momentum is starting to tail off in terms of the pound against the dollar in terms of the current trend it still sell the rally most definitely but if we break through this downtrend line then we could well break higher and the dollar could weaken further and that's no more prevalent than what we've seen play out in dolly in over the course of the past few days and weeks those of you who again saw my videos and watch my videos over the past two weeks or no once we broke through this 108 level on dolly in and we got this key day reversal here yes we got a very very sharp short squeeze back on the back and on farm payrolls and I think I remember saying at the time didn't I Colin that I would fade this rally and leave a stop loss above 110 that is in fact what happened we're now down at 106 and 105 so for me we could get a rally back above 107 to 107 20 but overall certainly this is oversold in terms of the daily chart but on the weekly chart we still have quite a bit of downside trajectory and look at this here this is a bearish engulfing week here we've broken this downward thrust here has ripped out all the stops on the weekly chart we've managed to find support just above the previous highs of 105 50 we did overshoot slightly to 105 20 but certainly we can trade now between 108 and 105 before drifting back towards 104 and 102 over the course of the next few days and that certainly would get played out if the Fed did show any signs of being more dovish and maybe what Bullard said is the thin end of the wedge when it comes for a slightly more hawkish Fed maybe that particular dynamic and narrative is now dead and buried yes between the rally in the US dollar I think that'll ended up doing a lot of the feds work forward in terms of in terms of cooling the some of the sentiment about the US economy certainly that had driving down commodity prices has taken some of the some of the inflation pressures off and and now we're starting to see the cooling in the in the stock markets as well which had been getting pretty frothy I mean if when we had the VIX down at down at record low levels and and record complacency that that certainly we've been that we've been due for for this for some time you know Bullard still speaking on the wire so you just have to be aware that he's going to move the market he's just said hard data on US economy have been good so why delay end of QE Mr. Bullard you know if the US economy is fine why delay it you know he's contradicting himself now so and this is this is basically what we have to cope with it's enough to make you go gray and go bald and I'm doing both so ladies and gents before me and Colin wrap this up is there anything that you guys want to ask us is there anything that you guys or one particular market want us to look at that we haven't already covered because one of the reasons we do these webinars is so that you guys can ask us questions and hopefully we can give you maybe you know some sort of idea that maybe you hadn't thought of with respect to a particular currency pair or a particular asset that you're particularly interested in what we're waiting for questions could you pull up Apple Michael yeah absolutely yeah because of course yeah we talked about that didn't we Apple so two things with Apple one is today's another product launch event they're doing new iPads new iMacs and who knows what else and on Monday night after US markets close Apple is reporting earnings so this looks like and just as a general the the biggest name in tech certainly Apple is also active off of off of general market trends so what have we got here early a couple of days ago we had this short term uptrend break at 99 there's a bit of a trend of higher lows we're now back here though testing a much more significant trend line in this 95 50 95 to 96 area here so we'll see if that that starts to get to the support if it fails you could see that the then those previous support levels that we've been drawing that Michael drew this line off of our back down in and around closer to 93 92 50 say 92 50 to 93 dollars so there is still some room for the downside if Apple breaks if it does rebound probably first resistance would be in and around these some of these recent lows and yesterday's high the top of that yesterday's the body of yesterday's candle in and around 98 and of course the $100 remains the big round number test for Apple yeah let me just get rid of that got rid of them both didn't really want to do that I'll come back to that in a minute I'm I've just been asked about Barclays so let's have a quick look at that because that's certainly been choppy on the back of what we've seen in recent days and look at this nasty little chart that it is yeah I mean we've got good support roughly pretty much where we are right now let me just get shot of that get shot of that as you can see I've been asked about Barclays before and I've got some old trend lines on there so let's just blow this all the way out well this Barclays chart looks very very interesting indeed if we just remove that line there and go through here yeah I mean basically I think if we break below 201 on Barclays then I think the trap door could open because certainly if you look at where the market is in terms of stops if you along a Barclays where would you put your stop you put it right below 200p so anything with a one-handle on it and if Barclays breaks down we could see a significant move lower while above that then it's still fairly susceptible to a rebound but certainly in the context of these highs and lows we're still getting lower highs in the short term we've just broken this up trend of the last few days we're still below the 200 week moving average so overall sentiment surrounding Barclays is a little bit negative the 200 day moving average is resistance if we drop below 200p then we could drop quite sharply just been asked a question about are you both still optimistic on the world economy recovery or is there any region that is dead end for now well I think you know the world economy has got an awful lot of problems at the moment you know we talk about a recovery it depends what you mean by a recovery if you mean will China continue to grow then yes if you believe the GDP numbers because essentially you know seven percent or six and a half percent is better than zero percent but will it grow as markets expected to grow and I think that's really the key will Europe grow in any meaningful fashion over the course of the next one to two years to be honest no I really don't see it I think there are too many structural problems the European politicians are failing to deal with and until such times as they do and even if they do they still have to basically implement the reforms and that in itself is going to be painful so for me in Europe I don't really see that much of a recovery in the short to medium there's still an awful lot of structural problems within Europe and that I think that's going to act as a significant drag on the global economy for some time to come I think Europe is in a debt trap and until such times as there are restructurings and banks fail and they deal with the underlying structural issues and that will remain the case for quite some time to come and have you got anything else to add on that Colin I just said I think that what we're seeing it what we've seen over the last two years is with Europe with Europe is that we got all the warning signals a few years back from the countries around the the periphery whether it is Greece and Portugal and Spain and Ireland and slowly but surely over the last two years that the problems have been seeping their way into the core of the of the Eurozone with with with France struggling and some of the other countries and and now what we're finally seeing is catching up to Germany Germany's been able to to fly above all of this for quite some time but now it looks like it's it's all starting to catch up to them too the question is you know when it's when it does finally catch up to them will that be enough to spur them to take more action that that being Germany and France or is this going to continue to drag on it it's hard to say and that's the big thing I think if anyone says to you they know where the markets going you know I think it I think they're I think they're lying I personally have very little clue as to the long-term direction of the markets what I will say to you is that on current valuations I will be very surprised if they go aggressively higher and I've been saying this for quite some time you know you can print as much funny money as you like at the end of the day stock price valuations have to reflect economic fundamentals the Fed has pumped four trillion dollars worth of stimulus into the global economy over the past five years and where are we yeah the US economy is recovering the but look at the participation rate the participation rate is at a 35 year low jobless claims are at 264,000 a 14 year low but that's probably because a lot of people are given up claiming it yes it's definitely possible with with and it's been a number of years I mean they've had to the in the US they've had to go back and and continually extend benefits and extend and extend unemployment benefits because it has been hard for people to to to find work initially let me just while we're talking here I'm just going to go up and look at the continuing claims which is a 2380 they actually rose that rose slightly and that's something also to keep an eye on as well as that yes you're seeing probably you know less less employment but but that their continuing claims number is still staying fairly high I've been asked if oil will make a further drop I'm guessing that you mean Brent and not WTI if we look at Brent we can see that we broke in a key support to 2012 lows the 2010 highs at $88 so for me yes Brent can fall further I think WTI can fall further I think certainly think there's potential to see $75 on WTI I certainly think there's potential to see a similar sort of level on Brent for how long that's debatable because at the end of the day the supply and demand dynamics of that could change very very rapidly we have an opaque meeting at the end of November if you look at the Gulf States not many of them can actually afford a crude oil price down at these levels at the moment what's happening is Saudi Arabia are hoping to squeeze US producers of shale where the break-even price is quite a bit higher but having said that even even the Saudi price of oil is still fairly high in terms of funding their welfare programs so certainly looking certainly looking at Brent crude there is potential for further downside but at some point we're going to get a sharp rebound and I would certainly be prepared for that in the event that it happens right I've also been asking about you going Colin go that's right I was gonna say I'm unless they want to start a serious price where at some point you're soon you are going to get to two levels where people are going to have to start looking at shunning in production and that's the key thing and that's the key thing because when we look at oil at the beginning of the year that the people were more worried about about supply disruptions and that there would be a shortfall of supply relative to demand now the problem we've got at this time of the year is the shortfall and demand relative to supply that supply is held up and demand potential has been slowing with with the economies in Europe and in China so unless at that point then the response becomes do you just say if oil prices go way too high then people cut back on their demand if they go way too low at some point people are going to have to start shutting in supply but where that floor kicks in and and that's we know Merck is always overshoot a little bit look at Disney yeah so I've been just asked about Disney I'm looking at that at the moment and that looks fairly bearish at the moment but we are on a very very key support line from the 2011 lows so I think if you if you if you're looking at Disney keep an eye on these levels here it's looking a little bit heavy but overall it's still in this uptrend and if we get a rebound in the S&P or the Dow then we could see a significant rally in that one other thing I would say ladies and gentlemen is any stock that deviates more than a significant amount away from its 200 week moving average eventually has to correct back to its mean so I'm not going to have them one or two ways you either get a very very sharp drop or you trade sideways for a very very long time while this line catches up I don't think we're going to see $90 again on Disney best-case scenario we could continue to trade sideways but overall I think we could well drift lower over the course of the next few trading weeks and probably come back down to around about $70 being asked about Blackberry now I think I'll leave this one for you Colin because that's one of your favourites isn't it Blackberry here we go being a Canadian stock yes so we have Blackberry is basically after the big sell-offs of 2012 and and 2013 it's basically going sideways the company itself is essentially trying to trying to stabilize they launched a new a new version of the Blackberry the passport last month they're focusing more on the on the corporate market they pretty much given up on the on the consumer market now what there's only two things that drive Blackberry one is is how they're doing themselves and the others how their competitors are doing so we had a run here in August and September into their product announcement and since then we've seen the shares retrenching back from 11 to 9 you're in a kind of a bit trading channel here from say that's about 870 up to about 11 and change 11 and and a bit and so if you follow at the bottom of this then you start you may start filling in the rest of this gap and you could see it dropping back easily into that you could see it drop back into that 7 to 7 to 8 dollar range where it does look like it's got some pretty good pretty good support on on Blackberry but for the moment looks like it's stabilizing in this in near $9 in this say 850 to 850 to 950 range initially it does look like it's starting to level off here and then we'll be keeping an eye on what's happening with their competitors the Apple earnings are going to be important not only for Blackberry but for the sector particularly because Samsung put out a profit warning a week or two ago and that's been dragging on the group as well interestingly I believe it was early October and since then since Samsung's profit warning Blackberry is actually stabilized which is quite intriguing definitely and obviously we have Apple's results later this month as well we'll see how well they did in the iPhone 6 the bendy iPhone 6 anyway ladies and gents going to have to wrap it up there hopefully you found that useful and we will be posting this webinar on YouTube for you to listen to it back but in the meantime I just like to thank you for your patience on what I'm sure is a very very busy day for all of you and we'll do this same time same place next month so please feel free to sign up for next month's one as well otherwise Colin and I would both like to thank you for your questions and your attendance yeah thank you and have a great day treating it there