 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Happy Sunday, happy weekend everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is having a wonderful, wonderful weekend. Hope everybody is happy, healthy, and all that good stuff that makes for quality life. As always, we really, again, really, really appreciate all the support, all the feedback, all the contributions from the online community. If you are brand new to the channel, like, subscribe, share, tell a friend, right? Tell a friend. We always try to provide as much unbiased data, right? Facts as we can possibly happen from this idiotic brain, so we really do appreciate your viewership. So thank you. So let's talk about the market. Well, number one, I always go into every single update. And I'm doing this for, next year is going to be quarter of a century, a lot of time, right? And, you know, about 10, 15 years ago, I really started getting humbled. What I thought what the market was going to do when I thought was going to happen, in my opinion, and all this stuff, and eventually you realize you're an idiot. You're a schmuck, right? That's me, king of the schmuck, king of the idiots. And, you know, I realized years and years and years ago what I thought was going to happen and what should happen are two different things, right? Like, this is what we always talk about. It's not the market we want, it's the market we have. And, you know, I always go into every single update. If you've been watching this broadcast for a while, you kind of know that every single day, look, I have an opinion. I have a sense of what's going to happen based on the research, but is it possibly going to go my way? Listen, we don't know. That's the whole point. If I knew 100%, I'd be all in max overnight on every single thing, but we don't. So this is why we try to always instill the idea is that we're not trading from week to week, month to month, year to year. We're trading from day to day. So let's, based on what we talked about here, let's take a little quick history lesson. So here's the chart on the QQQs. If you're brand new, if you are brand new to the channel, I primarily trade probably same tensile. You know, my universe is probably about 10 stocks, right? Same stocks, Tesla, Nvidia, you know, Meta, Apple, Amazon, you know, the big cap, mega cap plays in the market, AMD, all stuff like that. The QQs. So my universe is pretty much in the Nasdaq 100, you know, maybe 10, 15% max of everything, you know, throw in the Roku's of the world and stuff like that. But primarily it's the same names. So I always track what the ETF is doing based on what I think is going to happen for the next day. Again, not three years from now, not three weeks from now for the next day. And if you guys remember somewhere around here, right, we had this really phenomenal run. We, the sellers got tied around January 6. We reclaimed the 50-day moving average. And again, if you're, you know, been watching this channel for a long time, you know how important the 50-day moving average is. It's a really aggressive shift in sentiment. And we went from bearish, which 80% of the time we were in 2022 to bullish, where we got, you know, above this 278 level on January 11. And had this phenomenal run all the way up to February the 2nd. And then we put in this inverted hammer. And an inverted hammer, again, I'm not a, you know, I'm not a massive expert in Japanese candlesticks. But I know the basics, right? Over the years, I've picked up the basics. And I know a hammer, right, which is a hammer, which is an exhaustion cycle, right? Exhaustion cycle. And the sellers get tired, we'll go higher, you know, at least for the short term. And inverted hammer basically means we're, you know, gassing out, right? Doesn't necessarily have to happen the next day, but we're gassing out in the markets, getting a little bit tired in that direction. So here we put in kind of this inverted hammer and the market for the next several days started putting in lower highs, lower highs, lower highs. And then we started rallying again. And this was the kind of the inverted hammer that really set the market, you know, really set the market for the next two weeks, downside bias. And again, all these numbers we talk about, I try to put in these specific numbers. If I remember, again, I'm not getting any older, excuse me again, not getting any younger. But I try to put in the ETF numbers for everybody because, you know, not everybody trades the ETFs. But I like to at least share that information as a guide to the viewership to kind of say thank you, give them the specific numbers. So you guys can formulate your own opinion, but based on those technical numbers. So we started talking about three numbers, right? Three numbers are going to be very important after the exhaustion cycle. We talked about 297, right? You guys remember 297, 297, 297, the market broke 297. Then we talked about 293, 293, 293, I think Kyler made shorts of all these numbers, 293 to the downside and the market broke 293 to the downside. And then we said 290 is going to be very, very important because that is the 200 day moving average. And that's this whole channel going all the way back, go all the way back to January the 26th to where we were only three days ago. So it was a very, very big number. And if you guys remember, we tested the 200 day moving average, not once, twice, but three times. And on the third time, it was on Thursday. The third time, we gapped below the 200 day moving average, right? We gapped below the 200 day moving average pre-market 90, you know, 95% of the meat off the bone was gone, was absolutely gone. You couldn't shorten the whole because you were rallying, you were literally gapping down into this 288 lower daily bologna man. And then we started slowly but surely reversing, but it wasn't like one of those, you know, that's it. Throw the baby out at the bathwater. That's the bottom. It was basically, okay, you know, we're rallying a little bit back. It keeps on getting stuck at that 290 level. If you guys remember, it's kept on getting to the 290, kept on washing, kept on getting to the 290, kept on washing kind of in mid-morning, mid-day. And here's where we talk about, we constantly talk about it, constantly remind. And that's the most important part is, again, trade the market you have, not the market you want. And here's a constant reminder that nothing that you think should happen next has to happen, right? So we talked about any close now, any close below 290, anything. It could be 290, 289, 99, any close below 290. And we were going to start going into the 50-day moving average. Remember all those videos I was recording in the past week, right? Any close below 290, we're going to get to the 50-day. And then all of a sudden, and this is, again, why we talk about that the stock market and trading as a whole is the greatest reality show that's not on television. So you had Fed Bostic of all people come out. Now, mind you, Fed Bostic is not, to my knowledge, right? Fed Bostic is not a voting member, okay? So it's not like, you know, it's not like powers coming up and making these statements. So Bostic comes out around, I don't remember, I think it was like mid-morning, maybe towards, you know, maybe towards lunchtime, maybe a little bit after. And he turns around and he said, well, and yeah, I'm kind of going to paraphrase it, but from, you know, from what he basically saw, there's a shot, he said, there's a shot that the Fed can pause mid to late summer, right? Because again, that's what the market's looking for, the market's looking for clarity. And if you remember, here's the five minute view, here's the five minute view of the market, here's the five minute view of the market from Thursday, it just absolutely erupted, right? Because again, the market just wants to understand an end game. If the Fed definitively came out and said, right, this is it, summer of 2023, this is the last time we're raising rates, inflation is in our control, it's tamed, we got it, we're good, right? It would be a natural, you know, a natural springboard, and the next thing you know, the bears are scrambling to cover. But he didn't say that, it's one of those non-voting members that just said, hey, yeah, this could happen if this, if that could happen. Yeah, how many times have we heard that before? So, you know, we had a huge, huge reversal Thursday's action, right? Here's the reversal, and not only did we get off the mat and reclaim the 290 level, the 200 day moving average, we got above the next day, we got above the previous day's channel of 294, which is again, the most basic thing in technical analysis. A stock can't go higher if it doesn't take out the previous day's high, and a stock can't go lower unless it takes out the previous day's low. So not only did we reverse on those comments that we had, we took out the previous day. And the question was, well, what is this, you know, was this just kind of a knee-jerk reaction as we know the markets don't go straight down, or can the bulls actually build? And here it can kind of set the stage. We had the ISM numbers come out, we had an ISM number come out at 10 o'clock. The ISM number, the market really, really liked. Okay, it looked like, let's see, your ISM services report noted higher new orders with lower prices paid. The market liked that news, and then here we are off the running again. And if you were watching the video, especially in the last week, there was a specific number that I talked about over and over and over again. I said, there's no way I can get bullish, okay? I could get mentally bullish unless the bulls reclaim 299. If you guys remember, right, 299 was the highest candle here on February the 21st into this 20-day supply. If you guys remember, we kept on getting rejected, the 20-day supply, 20-day supply, 20-day supply, 20-day supply putting in lower highs. So once it reclaimed that 299 level, that broke this whole downtrend that started, literally that started on February the 3rd, continued on this inverted hammer on February the 16th. And now the bulls, because we had such a really aggressive 36 hours, the bulls, this was the highest close in the whole formation, breaking down, breaking the downtrend that we started all the way back here in this inverted hammer, second inverted hammer, confirmation. And now the question is, can the bulls keep this going? And that's the answer. That's the million-dollar question we have going into Monday. Here is the last hurdle. Right, guys? Here is absolutely the last hurdle. Now, again, you can call this whatever you want. Like, again, I'm not a fan of labels, bull market, bear market, bear market rally, bull market bounds, bear market rally, bear market... I don't care. Whatever you want to call it, potato, potato, right? The whole thing, potato, potato, tomato, tomato. So whatever floats your boat. But what I do know is stocks trade from supply to supply and demand to demand. Right? Again, keep this in mind. I'm an idiot. World's greatest idiot. Right? So here is supply and then we stop. You see how we stop? Right at supply here. Right? This is... This is the hundred... Let me see which one this is. This one is... This one is... Yeah. So this is the 20-day... This is the 20-day SMA. Right? Everybody see that? This is the 20-day EMA. This is the 20-day SMA. I believe so. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Maybe e-signals all jacked up. Doesn't matter. A line's a line a line. I forget if you trade a PS63 and understand why it's so important and you'll see visually, why it stopped here on Friday. If the bulls can start building a new base, in other words, if the price action can occur more times than not above this 300 area, then folks, we will resume this whole upward bias. And you can see how much airspace we have, because the next supply zone is all the way up to 311. So yeah, is Friday... It was Friday's reversal of big deal reclaiming all these levels? Absolutely. Is Monday going to be even more important to see if the bulls can... It's a pretty basic thing of sink or swim. The bulls are either going to reclaim this 300 level and start building above it, or they're going to get rejected off this 300 level, and if they start losing 297 on the close, you know what's going to happen next. So yeah, I mean look, if you go through... And it took me this weekend five minutes, right? Five minutes to do my watch list, because if we do confirm this ridiculous value, right? There's absolutely ridiculous value going into this trading week, but the key is we have to confirm, right? And you don't have to get very, very creative. All the NASDAQ has to do is reclaim this 300 level and build. Any close over 300 is super duper bullish. I primarily am focusing on the big cap, mega cap names. I threw in a couple of smaller names for you guys, but you know, here's some names that I love, right? NVIDIA, we've been talking about, you know, we've been talking about NVIDIA. Again, just to give you an idea of why we talked about on Wednesday that it's completely different. If you guys don't know, NVIDIA did an offering, I think it was like 10 billion, and people, oh my God, this is it, NVIDIA is good, right? Big cap stocks, Apple, they all access the debt market. They do, it's just they do that from time to time. It's not that they need the money. A lot of money is still very, very cheap to borrow despite the rising rates. So that's what a lot of these companies do. They access the debt market. Look at NVIDIA. This thing is literally an inch away, right? An inch away of taking out the earnings highs. If there's a red to green open, and hopefully the market gaps for obvious reasons, but if there's a red to green open, right? If there's a red to green open and the video starts taking down the earnings highs, it will start its next leg up. We saw on Friday, 250 weeklies rolling in for this week. Look at a stock like AI, right? A lot of you guys, especially the don't trade beta, this has been the hot stock this year, right? Really, really hot stock. Again, here's another perfect example. When a stock reclaims a 50-day moving average, right? It reclaimed a 50-day moving average at 1265, right? Wherever this conversation right up here, keep an eye on this AI. Especially if it gives a down open, right? If it gives a down open, watch the build above Friday's highs. If it could start getting above that, it could wake up. TTD I really like as well. Look at the TTD chart. It stopped now three times in the same area. If it could just reclaim this channel here, this thing is going to start waking up again. Look at AMD. You can go through a lot of stocks, guys. There's a lot of really good-looking charts that are coming off the bottom. All they need to do is reclaim their big areas. Meta continues to be a monster. Meta is the only one that I didn't participate in on Friday. It was rallying right before the ISM. I was afraid to buy it right before the ISM, and this thing exploded. So let me give you guys some of the names that... Well, let me give you guys the pivots from Friday. Again, some really pretty big moves. DXCM, I really like this thing. Trade is a little slower. Trade is a little spreadier. But the formation is there. If you are patient, this thing can go. DXCM 121.50, 122 needs to build. Here is DXCM. Oops, DXCM. Really, really nice-looking chart. Look at this candle on Thursday. In golf, two weeks' worth of selling. Stock closed about a dollar above the pivot. If this thing could just wake up, I think there's a shot it gets above this 125.5, and it gets above 125.5, and the market continues to rally. It could be really, really good, but nice move there. On the video, this was the big one. I mean, I missed Meta, but this was the big one. Meta 233.80 and 234.60 pre-market highs, which basically was an opening range high of 235. If it builds above punches shot, it could get to earnings highs, and that's exactly what happened. Great, great move into the close on the video. So here is the 235 area. It took out these two channels, and now traded right into the earning size. If it could just confirm it, I think it starts next like a $5 move there. AMAT, I still like. It didn't reject it. Watch this AMAT, guys. 1.1960 rejected needs to build. It didn't get there on Friday. I still like it going into this week. Look how tight this channel is. This is a beautiful, beautiful channel. So keep an eye on that. Meta, this is the one I regret, but again, how can you buy? How can you buy a stock that's breaking out into an ISM number that we knew the market was weak for two weeks? But I personally missed this one. If you guys got a great job, 1.7820 needs to build. Here was Meta, just absolutely one nuts, right? 1.7820, this thing went to almost 87. Oh, big miss, but you know it is what it is. Safe and sorry. Square finally broke out. We talked about this on Wednesday. 1.7860 needs to build. Finally broke out and confirmed its earnings highs. Beautiful move here. 1.7860 traded up to 81 and changed. I still think this thing goes higher. Next supply is 80 to 70. TTD we just talked about. Again, this is the one that triggered right at the close. 2.99 huge area of supply. Any close above starts next leg up. Again, Q's ran up about 80 cents. So that's it guys. We're set up. We are set up for tomorrow. Again, obviously, I would love to see the Q's confirm. I would love to see the bulls confirm Friday's price action because if they do, that means we have a ton of airspace to go and hopefully we can get kind of another resemblance of what we had when we broke out the first time above the 50-day moving average. Guys, God bless. Stay healthy and as important as everything else in our professional lives. Stay in business. Have a great day. I will see you all tomorrow. Take care.