 Week 15 is just around the corner for NFL DFS and it sets up as a pretty interesting slate with some viable value plays at running back, not terrible value wide receivers as well and some fun games to stack. We're gonna break down week 15 in a whole talking about trends and injuries to know, gain stacks and our favorite plays at each position here today to get you ready for Sunday's main slate. Welcome on into the Heat Check Fantasy podcast. That's right here on the Fandual Podcast Network and Fandual Research. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandual Research. Joined here as I am every Thursday by Brandon Gadoula. Check him out on Twitter at Gadoula13. Find his work at Fandual Research where he is a senior managing editor. Brandon, week 15 is coming in hot. How you doing today? Oh, I'm great. You were singing some lovely renditions of the same song over and over and over again before we started the show. So that got me in a good mood. I hope that continues throughout the show. No, I don't sing publicly. The fact that I was doing it in front of you is embarrassing to me. And I like, we watched a Christmas movie last night and like a song that has a same word in it is now stuck in my head and has been stuck in my head ever since then. So it's not gonna go away. I'll guarantee that. What movie are we talking? Hallmark. Some of the Tiffany's. I think Amazon Prime Christmas movie is actually good. I enjoyed it. I mean, most Christmas movies are good to be clear. This one though was enjoyable. So add it to the list. I assume you have Prime. No free ads, but... Yeah, sorry. Yeah. Did we even Amazon Prime read on the show earlier on this year? Yeah, we're fine. Yeah, we can, it's not free anymore, but like I can say that word at least. Yeah, I mean, well. I know you're more of a Hallmark guy. Yeah, I was gonna say like, should I not say Hallmark? Yeah, I mean, like these are actually good. So I don't know if like this is that kind of kills the vibe for you or not, but these are like legitimately fine movies. So like Hallmark still has the reputation of being really, really bad, but like the quality of them has creeped up and up and up to the point that like they're very viable. They're not, they don't like blow you away. There's been a, there's a couple that are like, oh, this is good. Yeah. A couple are like, oh, this is really bad, but we used to like laughing at them. Yeah. And it's like when Nicholas Cage is in like legitimately good movies, like, oh, I'm kind of sad about that. Yeah, so I mean, credit to Hallmark for up in the quality. I know millions of people like them, I know how much, how much money they make Hallmark. They're working, but yeah, you lose a little bit of the what is happening right now kind of stuff in these current day ones, but I know you're a Netflix and sort of Amazon Christmas movie guy. I did scroll through some of the Hallmark ones. Apparently Field Yates' mom's dog is in one. So I might need to check that one out. Like they had a puppy and like it's, he tweeted about it. So I want to find that one cause his dogs are incredibly cute. So like for that reason I might seek out like that Hallmark one specifically. So if anyone knows what that one's called, I could like go back through his Twitter and find it. Just check the dog's IMDB page. Oh yeah, okay, cool. Like that's pretty helpful. Okay, so I'll do that. And I think that Brandon, if you're looking for the what is happening factor, you can look at the week 15 main slate because Zeke Elliott is actually potentially like kind of a core play. Joe Flacco is relevant. There's no Odell on the main slate, but we could have gone like full 2017 if Odell had been on the main slate with Zeke, Flacco and Odell. Alas, it's still a pretty interesting slate cause there are a lot of like, are we actually doing this? Kind of questions for week 15. We'll break down those throughout the show for today to get you ready for week 15. Talk about what we're doing with Zeke and much more in just one second. But first, a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast. A daily ISO at Tom Vecchio goes up every weekday breaking down MBA, DFS. Austin Swain has your USC DFS needs covered as well. And of course, a daily ISO heat check and covering the spreader also available on FanDuelTV Plus to get FanDuelTV Plus, go to fanduel.com slash watch and log in with your FanDuel account or go to the FanDuelTV Plus app on Amazon Fire, Apple TV or Roku devices. Score early this NFL season with FanDuel America's number one sports book right now. New customers get $150 in bonus bets with any winning $5 moneyline bet. That's 150 bucks if your team wins. If you've been thinking about joining FanDuel, there is no better time to get in on the action. The app is so easy to use. 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Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXT-STEP to 533-4-2 in Arizona, 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash Chad, Connecticut, 1-800-9 with it in Indiana, 1-800-522-4700 and visit ksgamblinghealth.com in Kansas, 1-877-770-STOP in Louisiana, visit MD Gambling Health or Oregon, Maryland, 1-800-GAMLER.NET in West Virginia, 1-800-522-4700 in Wyoming. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call you 100-327-5050 for 247 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-80 hope and why or text HOPE and WHY in New York. Let's dig in now to this week 15, May and Slate and Brandon to me. It's a couple of key questions we're asking ourselves. The first one to me is, what do we do with Zeke? He's $6,500. He had a huge workload with Noor Ramandri Stevenson last week. Facing the cheeses, you know, decently heavy dogs, eight and a half that money line has tightened a bit though in that game, which I am intrigued by slash confused by, but anyway, that does help Zeke for sure. And then what do you do with the games with high totals on the slate? Do we load up on Bill's Cowboys? Do we go hard at Matthew Stafford in a very good matchup? Do we prioritize the 49ers as big favorites against the Cardinals? So it's a lot of key questions for me that will help define the slate. What are the things that stand out to you when you dig in to week 15? Yeah, other than what you really focused on, the one team that jumps out to me is the 49ers just because they have what? I mean, you can almost put Purdy in this conversation, but guys who can really alter the slate, like if Purdy is putting up 30, like 30 from Purdy, we'll get it done. I think he has that kind of upside. McCaffrey, of course, Debo and IU, IU's like target shares are still good. George Kittle obviously has that potential, but they're just, what like 12 and a half points is that spread? It has tightened and they have a lot of defensive injuries. So the concern for me with the 49ers is always blowout risk where they're not getting guys involved late, but I think the blowout risks, the blowout odds are decreasing slowly throughout the week, which is good. Yeah, it's still elevated, but I think the, again, other than Zeke and the top games, I would say like specifically the 49ers making sure that we don't just kind of write them off or move past them or justify how easy it is to overlook them, it's moving into the other games. You can build lineups with six teams in those games, maybe five if you don't include the team that's a 12 and a half point underdog. You can build a lineup with just targeting those games, but where are you going other than that? Is I think the question that jumps out to me, I think we're probably both on the same page where we like the Battle of the Bays with Green Bay Tampa Bay, but then things fall off and then you get into the question of, okay, it's late in the season, some guys are injured, there's gonna be opportunities for teams, but their offensive expectations are low, how much does that matter? Are you going out of your way to target value plays on these teams with totals under 40 points? I'm not gonna say that there's nobody there, of course, but figuring out that right balance of when to take advantage and when maybe to ignore it is something that we're gonna have to ask ourselves throughout the week. So let's start with that and transition now into our injury section and talk about Zeke Elliott because we're monitoring Stevenson this practice again on Wednesday, I think he's gonna sit this week. And we know that Zeke's role last week was very good. It was tremendous from an actual role perspective where he played 90% of the snaps, had in that game 22 carries and eight targets for 140 yards and scrimmage, kind of flukey because he had a long reception that you don't project, but also a 75% red zone share at three out of five opportunities down there. So let's assume we're Mondres even since it's again, the role for Zeke is great, but they have the lowest implied total in the slate of 14.3, despite the fact that spread shortened by a point overnight. So how are you handling Zeke here with a low salary at $6,500? Yeah, I think that you can't really ignore someone and he played 91% of the snaps if we round up, so it's even better. But someone coming off of an eight target game, I know you had the long catch, but his underlying data is still really good. Tons of routes as well, not just like just happened to get targeted at a really high rate on his handful of routes. He had 25 routes. You love to see that. Look, their future is uncertain, I'll say, with the coaching situation. So maybe we see a little bit of a little bit, like pulling out all the stops, just kind of doing some stuff and maybe they just kind of make some things happen. It's really hard to sit here and say, Elliott coming off of a 91% snap rate at 6,500 shouldn't be played heavily because of the implied team total. But also, I think that implied team total, the realistic probability that they just only score once or twice, although just could easily come from him, makes it hard to say he's a true 100% core play. So I can see the case for both. If someone says, hey, I'm playing Zeke in every lineup or I'm not touching Zeke because everyone's gonna play him and they're not gonna score, I could see both sides. He's really, really polarizing in a sense. Yeah, and I think the reassuring thing for me with Zeke as someone I do wanna be overweight on, not 100%, like he's no redacted like we had the past two weeks, thankfully he's on the Saturday slate. So that's a delight. He's not in that range because the implied total. I think the one thing that's reassuring though is the game that Stevenson left early, Zeke had 92 yards in that game. He had 88, two games before that as well. So it's not as if like the yardage has come out of nowhere. So I think that's why I'm okay with going here. Do I love the fact that I'm gonna be heavy on Zeke? No. Am I gonna do it anyway? Yeah. I think that to me there are four core running backs this week in Rashad White, Zeke Alliated, Christian McCaffrey and Tony Pollard. So he's firmly in that four for me and a guy I'm comfortable going to despite very much known downsides of his profile and his team's profile. Yeah, as I sit here, look, I always talk about like a main lineup. I think Zeke's very much in the conversation for that main lineup. I think he's very likely to be in it for me. I think he is, but I can easily just get to Rashad White as well. Sure. So, but that includes if I'm playing Christian McCaffrey, which then is, that's how it gets hard now is to be in that main lineup, which is part of why I want to use the for sure. Yeah. Then that ups the probability for me to get to Zeke too. So we're on the same page. Well, some of the other side of that game quick, Isaiah Pacheco, missed another practice Wednesday for the cheese, sounds like there's still a shot that he plays. They're gonna evaluate him throughout the week, but most likely he sits. We saw Clyde Edwards-Elair and Jared McKinnon have the roles we expected last week without Pacheco. Are you on either of them this week against the Patriots, CEH's salary, I believe is 61 and McKinnon is $5,500. They pretty much just split everything down the middle. Of course, it wasn't exactly the case, but yeah, CEH 61, McKinnon 55, both had good receiving roles, but right in that 45 to 50% snap rate, split two red zone carries between them. CEH actually, two fewer routes, but one more target. I think that the probability with a workload like that, that someone's gonna torch us, just goes so low that I think you're doing yourself a disservice. Yeah, I think Rishi Rice is the guy you go to if you want a value playing the cheese, $6,500 for him. So I'm gonna go there, I'm not touching those two and that's fine by me. If Pacheco were to play, even that I'd probably be a bit cautious because shoulder injuries are concerning from you at backs. So I think the cheese backfield won't to avoid this week but I'd be okay, very okay with Rishi Rice. Tyree Kilmas practice Wednesday with an ankle injury that he suffered on Monday should be able to go after he returned to that game but he's definitely not a hundred percent right now. Devon Achan also in this practice with a toe injury. We'll talk about the dolphins in the trend section. CJ Stroud and Nico Collins both in this practice Wednesday and they seem likely to sit this week facing the Titans. So it's a good matchup, but they're missing their three best offensive pieces now with Tank Dell also out. Dalton Schultz looks like he'll be back. Noah Brown has played well this year but I'm avoiding everybody here with Davis Mills starting, what about you? It's kind of wild that this team has better offensive expectations given their circumstances than the Patriots do. Yeah, why is that? I don't agree with that personally. That's weird. I mean, you would know cause you model things out from that perspective, but- I took the over in Chiefs Patriots and I bet the Titans against the Texans, but yeah. It's because the Titans defense sucks. I think that's actually why. I thought about it for a second. That's why. Yeah, I don't see myself going here at all. Yeah, I agree. Crystal Lavey dealing with an ankle injury and didn't practice Wednesday for the Saints. Bit concerning cause there was like Dennis Allen specifically mentioned that he had an ankle injury. So that's concerning to me. Tayson Hill and Rashid Shaheed both at practice and Seaman Tract returned this week but a Lavey would be a pretty big loss here. So how are you in the Saints at home against Tommy Cutlets and the Giants? Well, I love a Lavey. So this is, this is a tricky one. I've just basically been playing a Lavey. You know, I've been overweight on him. It feels like week after week, these injury reports are for some teams are getting really, really hard to navigate and it's hard to talk about things Thursday morning cause we get the Wednesday practice, but where's Tayson Hill in terms of salary? He is 7,000. I don't know. We have some value tight ends who are definitely lively. That helps, especially if we're trying to prioritize Christian McCaffrey. We haven't gotten to the quarterbacks but we got Josh Allen. I'd probably still be most likely to play Hill but then I go back to that question. There's like no Lavey. Did they lean on Alvin Kamera? I also think it ups Shahid a bit. He's salary is 6,000. He's indoors. It's not the best game environment by any means. I prefer guys like him in better game environments but, you know, he's a very talented player, earns downfield targets. Derek Carr has been more efficient than Perception this year. Cause like whenever we see him, he's getting yelled at by his teammates, which is bad vibes. But like, I don't think Shahid is out of play at 6,000. Would he be someone I would like adore necessarily? No, but like I'd be receptive to him if there's no Lavey. Receptive for sure. I think someone like Shahid, again, he would need to be full in practice by Friday, of course. I was kind of coming into this one where it was too much of a coin flip to know if he would play, but I think Shahid's someone who as much as I like him as a talent probably benefits a lot from having a Lavey draw attention away. So he might get volume but it might not be as efficient as we like. True. Again, I think he's good, but I don't know if he's number one receiver good. Yeah. So, I mean, it's the Giants, but you know, so I'm with you. He'd be in that consideration set in low 6,000 range. I might prefer if a Lavey plays, but I still don't like this game enough. Like if a Lavey plays, do you want the Saints? Like, do you like the Saints guys enough? Not really. No. Yeah. Which is a bomber, but yeah, not really there. Brian Robinson didn't practice Wednesday with the hamstring injury he suffered before their bye week. That puts his availability in pretty serious doubt as they faced the Rams, which could make Antonio Gibson viable. We'll talk about them in the bookmakers section. DJ Moore didn't practice Wednesday with an ankle injury. Didn't really notice anything with him on Sunday. So I think he'll be good to go, but worth monitoring. They get the Browns on Sunday. Any interest in Justin Fields or DJ Moore assuming that Moore does play? I think Moore did get like rolled up and left for a bit. You're right. He did on the side. You're right. Yes. Yeah. So again, I'm definitely not trying to defer, but there's a. I feel like late in the season, especially we just get to the point where we don't know. DJ Moore has been a lot better than I expected. He was someone who I felt was a little too highly ranked in like season long leagues coming into the year. I was like, they're not going to throw enough, but he's been a guy. I just, it's 7,900 this week. I think he's great when you're stacking fields, but I don't foresee myself using fields against the Browns defense. Yeah. Although the Browns are kind of interesting for like bringing it back. So I could see the case for it from a differentiation standpoint. But if you just sort of look at Moore in a vacuum, there are at least with all right. Let's go Devo, Mike Evans, Mike Evans, Puka. Devo is right there. If you want to include him, it's a little bit further out. But yeah, I did. Like I like Ike more, honestly. Yeah, I said him to. OK, yeah. So I think I think I use pretty sneaky, not sneaky, because it's almost 8000. But it just feels like he hasn't erupted lately. But yeah, would you rather play DJ Moore at 79 or like a fully healthy Crystal Lobby at 75? Similar game environments. Oh, Lobby's indoors, I guess. So probably a lobby for the salary savings. I think so, too. I love Crystal Lobby. So that's part of it. I love DJ Moore, though, too. He was sure I love him coming out. But yeah, I'm probably not going to get the DJ more this week. Even if you need to go. I need DJ more for dynasty facing JJ Zachary. So then our dynasty league. I think did you get a buy in that league or? I don't know. You're in the playoffs. Look at your lineup. My gosh, tall thinking. Limited in practice Wednesday with shoulder and thumb injuries. Shoulder was the bigger concern, but it does seem like he'll be good to go. We'll talk about them in the bookmaker section. Jerome Ford able to get into limited practice Wednesday. He got banged up on Sunday. He has a wrist injury. Curry Hunt missed practice Wednesday, but he never practices Wednesday because he's old. So that's fine. We'll talk about them in the trend section. Aaron Jones returned to a limited practice on Wednesday. He has missed three games with an injury. Digi did three limited sessions last week before sitting out. Christian Watson remained sideline. AJ Dillon didn't practice with a thumb injury, and Vita Vaya also missed practice for the Bucks with the toe injury. So interesting that backfield, I will say for sure, but you'll talk about the Packers in the trend section. Finally, Tutu Atwell did not practice Wednesday with a concussion. Tyler Higbee did return to a limited session with his injured neck. DeMarcus Robinson popped up for a big game last week with Atwell out. We'll talk about them in the Bookmaker section as well. Speaking of which, let's dive in now to our Bookmaker games for week number 15 beginning with the tied for highest total in this late now, which is in Buffalo. For the Bills and the Cowboys, 50 and a half right now is the total. Very slim favorites are the Bills at one and a half points, and it checks the heat check boxes of high total, tight spread, but it is an outdoor game for the Cowboys. The Bills defense has at times played okay despite all their injuries. So how does this game rate out for you for stacking? Very well. We have enough options where it doesn't feel too narrow, but it also doesn't feel like you don't know who would be. The names, I think the hardest part for me is where I am with Dak Prescott. I like Dak a lot. He's got a path to upside for sure. I'm going to have a hard time building lineups with Dak over Josh Allen. So this might end up being a week where I kind of duplicate a lineup because I'll have stacks from, you know, I'll have receivers or running backs from, you know, both sides here. And I could easily justify just pivoting from a Josh Allen at quarterback to Dak at quarterback with the absolute same lineup. I know I'd lose 400 in salary there, but I don't want to guess wrong and have Dak sort of be the one who has the bigger game. But, you know, he's had those. He's had what, like 230 point games in his past five. He's got like passing upside. He's got some rushing upside as well, especially in a big game. I think Dallas could make a statement here. So where are you with Dak relative to Allen, but more specifically relative to the rest of the quarterback slate? Yeah, lower on him than Allen, because I like Allen a lot. And I was worried with indoor quarterback going to the road. I think the big point in Dak's favor is this game here against Philadelphia. That was outdoors, huge game against a pretty bad defense. But 373 and three touchdowns in that game, 28.36 fan dual points. And they played legitimately awesome in that game. Just didn't win. And was like a shoelace away from a rushing touchdown. Correct. Neely has won rushing touchdown recently. And he's been running a lot inside the red zone, I believe. Dak, when he was Dak prime, I guess he's Dak prime now, but when he was previously at his previous peak, he was running a lot inside the red zone. And that was huge for him for fantasy, because he'd stumble into a lot more rushing touchdowns. This year he has 11 red zone rush attempts. He actually has four the past two games. So I think that's encouraging. Yeah. I think the problem I have is if I'm not getting Josh Allen, I'd probably want to spend down for Stafford at 72 to get to McCaffrey. So Dak to me is quarterback three at best, but he might be quarterback three. I don't think anybody else is up there. So yeah, he's quarterback three for me above party. So like I think for me, it's Allen won. Well, it might be Stafford won. It's one of those two won and then tier drop down to Dak at three, but then Dak might be in a tier of his own as well. So I'll get to him for sure. Yeah, that's why I think he's so interesting. I could make a case where I don't end up even having a lot of Dak, or I could say he's the most obvious pivot in the world with being in the game that we like and everyone loves Josh Allen. But yeah, it sounds like we're mostly on the same page here. Recognize the upside with Dak. Biggest question is moving, moving outdoors. But like you said, we've seen him play well. But what also helps is, you know, a value running back on the same team. I guess tight end as well. So what are your thoughts on the rest of the Cowboys? So let's talk a Pollard first. His salary is $7,000. It was the second time this year where I've been doing the salary scroll on Monday and like I've gasped when I saw Tony Pollard's salary. The first time didn't go well. You'll be shocked to hear that. But this role has been a lot better recently. Target totals have been four or higher in now four consecutive games. Rico Dowdall is getting some work towards the goal line. So Pollard's goal line role has gotten worse. But it's still like fine. So I like Pollard quite a bit at $7,000. And he is a firm core play for me. And I actually think that like if we're talking secondary plays in this game as far as like game stacking, I think that James Cook is actually in play. As you know, I've been off James Cook pretty much the entire year because of his lack of red zone involvement. And like that's still true. He's still not getting a lot of work towards the red zone. But since Joe Brady took over as OC, and this is probably just randomness, but like they've had 13 plays inside the 12 yard line and Cook has been on the field for nine of those. Nine out of 13. And he played the one goal line snap they played in that time. So like I still think his red zone role is going to be bad. But like there is at least a path to it being better than it was before Joe Brady was the coordinator. So I'm pretty receptive to James Cook. Whereas I have not been previously, he will not be in my core. But like a 20, 30% kind of play from an exposure perspective. Is that dumb? And where are you on Pollard? Let's go Cook first then Pollard. I was in for like, is that dumb and where are you on Cook? But yeah, he's a game stack only for me. If I'm, I think especially if I'm not playing Josh Allen, I wouldn't mind playing Allen with Cook, but I'm kind of assuming that Cook does have a red zone score or two. And therefore Allen doesn't get those rushing touchdowns in that situation. Yeah, that's your, you're right. You're right. Yeah. Are you sure? Yeah. Because you said rushing touchdowns specifically and that's what you want with Josh Allen. So you were right. Yeah, so again, it's not like I would not consider playing Cook with Allen. I just think that if I'm playing Cook, it's probably with the assumption that he has the rushing touchdowns. And therefore, you know, could you hear that? That was way across the apartment. Yeah, I heard it. I never know if it's good or bad. We haven't ever like kept track of whether those are, those are good or bad. The Rosa Barks, yeah. So yeah, he's a game stack only for me. I like him as a player. Yeah. There's something about these bills running backs when they play alongside Josh Allen, where the red zone work is, you know, hit or miss. 7200 is reasonable for this game environment, but that's the best I can say for Cook. Is 20 to 30 percent too high for you? Like to me, that could be game stacks only because I'll have a lot of stacks of this game, but. It's like one out of four or five lineups. Yeah, I mean, I could see that. Okay. What about Pollard? Is he a firm core play for you? Yeah. Running back to me overall doesn't do a lot. I agree. I love McCaffrey. There's still a lot of potential. I love Kyron Williams. I don't think I need to force that in. I think he's sort of at his salary peak in a sense. Camara's workload is great. But then you kind of get a lot of imperfect resumes in the 8000 range. If I'm going to take an imperfect resume, maybe I'm going to save some salary, plug it into a good game with Pollard, who looks kind of lively or two. Doesn't necessarily reflect in his rushing yards over expectation for Kerry, but it seems like he's running hard still. I agree. So I like that. Yeah. Okay. We'll talk about the passing game pieces. You mentioned Jake Ferguson. I think that he's like one of the better tight end plays in the slate. Salary $5,900. I also do not mind Dalton Kincaid at 56. Kincaid dealing with the shoulder and thumb injury right now. But like had eight targets last week in Dawson Knox's first game back, still played a good number of snaps. So I feel like both these tight ends are firm considerations. And I think that what I would do again is just if I'm using Dak or Josh Allen, just put either of the tight ends in there and just let the tight end right at the game stack. How do you feel about Ferguson and Kincaid this week? So I'm just going to spoil the fact that we have the same exact player loves to the player across all positions. I think this is a really obvious, at least for our process, who are the best plays at salary and why a lot of overlap. We've been podcasting together for a long time. But this slate in particular, again, there's like three great games and there's sort of some obvious opportunities. But Ferguson's part of that. And I think I've liked him a little bit more than you. It's not that I've played him. You definitely have. But I've upped my view of him because he's getting more like yardage upside via downfield targets. So yes. Yeah. But we also haven't had a lot of cowboys on the main slate, at least as memory serves. So we haven't considered Jake Ferguson a ton. But yeah, he's got over 20% target shares in each of the past two games. And we've also seen him be relevant early on and then things kind of dipped. But now things are back up. So could have been maybe one of those a little banged up, but maybe not enough to matter. But yeah, he's getting work. He's plugged into one of the best games of the week, if not the obviously best game of the week, just depending on how you view some of the other games. But yeah, Ferguson, $5,900, save salary from some of the top guys, but also has a little bit of that juice that you want. So Ferguson for me, I can't sit here and say he's my absolute favorite play at tight end and then I'll plug them into my main lineup. But I would not feel bad. Yeah, because I'm probably going to want to stack this game as much as I can. Yeah. Okay. Wide receiver, CDLim, salary 92. Stefan Diggs, 85. Then you get down to a lot of value plays in Brandon Cooks, Gabe Davis. I'm still not going like a gal. So I'm going to bring him up. So like, what are you doing with the receivers here? Because I think they're tougher for me to decide on than the tight ends are. Yeah, I feel like this is not Faraday Stefan Diggs necessarily, but I feel like I'm only ever playing him due to like FOMO, which is a little bit too dismissive. But when you compare him to CDLim, there's like really no comparison. And, you know, there's a salary discrepancy. I understand that. But Diggs can just sort of be a little bit of a non-factor because they have other options. And then Josh Allen can just run in touchdowns. And it just, it's good for the team, but not first to find Diggs. You know, he's obviously coming off of back-to-back 11 target games with okay results in one and, you know, obviously subpar results in the other. So I'm not ignoring the fact that he's coming off of like two double-digit target games. And it's clearly they're, they're wide receiver one. With that said, though, if I'm paying up for a receiver, if I'm paying up for a receiver, I'm probably just going to get to that guy CDLim and then run it back with Gabe Davis. Yes. Oh man, you, you yelled at me on Slack so much yesterday about Gabe Davis. How are you, how are you doing this? I needed to fight yesterday. Of course, I think Gabe Davis makes sense. I just like to, to start like instigate some stuff and also point out that Davis, I know we ignore the floor on this show, Gabe, Gabe Davis can get a little more scripted out than I'd like, but he was what, 68 last week, the salary is down to 62. Once you get like below 65, no receivers are ever perfect. So Davis in this game environment makes a ton of sense. Yeah, I think that that's the big part of it is like, I don't think that Gabe Davis is a phenomenal football player. In fact, I kind of don't have a super high opinion of him in that regard. So like you can sometimes predict one who'll have a dud like against the Jets. Why would you ever even think about him? Like what, what do we do in here? Because they have good outside corners. The Cowboys like do as well. But like, I think it's not as a spot where we necessarily need to avoid him. And like, like you said, a salary 62. If you look at, and this is, this is parent cherry picking. So just, just chill out for a second. Can I mute you so you don't rebut this? But if you look at guys who've had the most games of 80 plus yards and a touchdown this year, number one is Terry Kill, who has done it nine times, I think, which is stupid. And then there are a bunch of guys with four, and that does include Gabe Davis. So like upside is still there at 62. I prefer Jaden Reed by a mile. I prefer Rishi Rice by a good, good bit too. But like, if I'm stacking this game and I need a value piece of the net, sure, I'll put Gabe Davis in there and I'll feel fine about it. Even though I know two targets, zero catches is within his range of outcomes, because he's done it twice in the past month basically. Yeah. So when I point that out, Jim, Jim yells at me like that. No, I point it doesn't matter because like we're looking, like you're not putting him in a cash game lineup. Like I might have used him in cash against you in that film game actually. But like at this, at this situation, you're not putting him in a cash game lineup. You want a guy who can erase mistakes elsewhere and Gabe Davis can be that guy at times. He can be, but. What's that? Well, I was going to say, you already mentioned Jaden Reed. Like Jaden Reed is getting handoffs. He's like their number one guy. He's like 27, when he heard of Samuel, which is like my favorite DFS player of all time. The best player of all time, yeah. Yeah. So what brand of cooks? No, you have to sell me on him. Go ahead. I don't think that I quite can, aside from a game theory standpoint of he's on the field. His target shares are not great. His single game target shares are 12.8% last week, 10, 15.6, 10. Like he can spike and get a little bit more focused. I don't know if you saw anything individually with this matchup because you usually have a good read on watching film and seeing who might be a little bit more focused on in certain matchups. But if cooks doesn't do it for you and 6300, we're getting into the Rishi Rice territory, Jaden Reed, like again, those two guys in particular. But I do think there's enough at least internal logic here where if someone's like, hey, I know everyone likes this game, I'm going to play Dak with Brandon Cook since the fondigs. I'm like, that's a very easy way to be different. Sure. I think cooks doesn't necessarily need to be in there. You can play Ferguson, but I'm not going to yell at anyone for trying to play Brandon Cooks here. I just don't want to use cooks on the road. Like I can use Dak on the road. I can use Lamb on the road. But like once you get to 12.6% target share, which is what he's at since their bi-week, that's tougher for me. So I won't get, I say that while acknowledging that Gabe Davis' target share is like 10% and the game is with awesome knocks. Um, I had the most relevant sample as being week seven and 14, because that's when Kincaid's role spiked and Knox is healthy and then Knox is back and Gabe's target share is 9% in that time. So like, you know, it is. I cannot wait for you to play Gabe Davis against me in our head to head and he scores like three times. I'm not doing that. I'm using Jaden Reed against you. I feel like you've okey-doke me a couple of times. Yeah, Jaden, things have changed. And it was with like, is it the different player? It's like a player I thought had no upside. Not a player who I thought was like raw unfiltered pure octane upside, which is what Gabe Davis is, but no cooks for me. Anything else for you in this game? I think we covered it pretty well. I know we spent a long time on this one, but this is the game to cover in the most detail this week. I agree. So let's talk about the second game on the bookmaker slate, which is the 49ers at the Cardinals right now. The 49ers are 12 and a half point favorites with a total here of 47 and a half that puts their implied total up at 30, which is very, very high. It's an easy match up here at the Cardinals too, and it's indoors, but they also might not need to keep their foot on the gas for all four quarters. So can the Cardinals keep this close enough to give us the full 49ers experience or do we not care? We should just use them regardless. I think there's a little bit of a doesn't even matter anymore. Someone's going to have a big game. That's just how this team operates. Debo's coming. He's got 18.9, 33.8, and 30.5 Fandall points in his past three games. Lots of touchdowns, which is worth noting. Meanwhile, Brandon Ayuk, he'd scored in four straight, didn't score last week, but had 126 yards. I think it's very, very easy for people to look at those two receivers in particular. Go with Debo because he's just been at his peak right now and deservely so because he's very, very good and he gets creative touches. But both of those receivers, if this game were a little bit closer, I feel like I could buy into it a little bit more. So I'll follow this up with a question. I like these guys a lot. I think it's a really easy way to get different. Everyone's probably going to be on McCaffrey. I think people will be on Debo, but Ayuk, George Kittle, these guys still make sense. You mentioned that the spread is getting a little bit tighter, 49ers defense, not 100%. What does your motto say? What do you think about this game? Can it stay close or no? Don't ask me about the spread. I don't want to talk about that. But I had the total at 53 in my motto. So it likes it a lot. Then on a lot of overs for the Niners this year, their pace is slow and I think people might overweigh that a bit. It's in my motto, but I think it might get a bit more weight than it deserves. And again, the defense is banged up. So I've got the spread around two touchdowns. So the fact that it moved to 12 and a half was a bit annoying for me. That's why I didn't want to talk about it. But it's because of the defense of injuries. I think with Ayuk, the pitch in favor of him, because I agree with you, is that people are on Debo, but Ayuk has a lower salary. I think the most relevant sample for these guys is the games where Debo has been fully healthy and Ayuk has been fully healthy. So I'm emitting the middle part of the year where Debo is very clearly playing through an injury. So emitting that part. In those games, Debo is at 95.3 yards and 200 per game. That's an insane number for a wide receiver. And you love that. But Ayuk is still at 86.4 in that sample. And this is the sample that's most generous to Debo. It's still not bad for Ayuk. So Debo is a better play because his red zone usage is about double Ayuk's when you count the carries and because his yards and scrimmage is higher. But from a pivot perspective, Ayuk rules. And I think that he fits really well. I don't mind putting him in a McCaffrey lineup, too, because Brock Purdy is playing so efficiently right now that multiple of these guys can get there. Earlier this year, he was like, blowout risk. Maybe one guy will get there. So I'll use one of them. But here it's like they're all getting there, even Kittle. So I think that Ayuk makes a lot of sense. And I agree with you a lot. He's pretty fun this week for tournaments. So I know we love McCaffrey. We probably don't need to spend a ton of time on him. We want to get him into our main lineup for very obvious reasons with his workload being what it is. Is Debo close to core play? I know we're talking about Ayuk from a pivot standpoint, but should we just keep playing Debo? I think, yes, we should be on Debo. The problem I have is I'm going to be stacking Ram's commanders pretty aggressively. Which is going to include Pukinakua. And his stat rate is 8,000. I want to have lines where I get to Mike Evans as a game stack with Jayden Reed, or with maybe some of the backfield there, or Tucker Kraft. So I'm using a lot of receivers in the 8,000 range. I feel like I need to actively try to get Debo in there. And I'm worried about being too low on him. Does that answer your question? It does. It's just one of those, can we realistically feel good? Both Sopuka and Debo play at 405. Let's say it's 435. Can we feel good in hindsight saying we played Pukinakua over Debo Samuel? I feel like yes, but I also think that when I phrase it that way, I should probably really think about Debo a little bit more in terms of a main lineup situation. I agree. I would also say I am less inclined to pair Debo and McCaffrey together. I did for the Philadelphia game, but because Debo can get those red zone rush attempts, it does take a bit more away from McCaffrey than Ayuk does. So I'm more willing to pair McCaffrey with Ayuk than McCaffrey with Samuel. Not opposed, not fully off, but more inclined to. Kittle? Yeah. Salary 68 is very reasonable with what he's doing right now. I think the main issue I'll run into is I'm going to be spending down a tight end a decent amount this week because I want to get to McCaffrey. And it's harder to do so if I'm not using Tuckercraft at 47, using Jake Ferguson, guys like that. But if value opens up and I'm not using McCaffrey, then I think that Kittle makes a lot of sense. It's just not like I like to pair my tight ends with quarterbacks. And I'm probably not going to get to Purdy this week because of the spread. But so I'd like to get there. I just realistically, I'll build my core lineups and I have the lower dollar FOMO lineups. And I think that he'll be more in the lower dollar FOMO range than anything else this week. Yeah. I mean, we have Kelsey against the Patriots at 75. He's probably worth his own conversation somewhere. But Taysom Hill at 7000 and then it's Kittle at 68 is the guys who, and I know Njoku just is coming off a huge game. But there's only three names that we can probably pin points. Like this dude's got like 20 point upside and can really change things at tight end. Kittle's got a lot of like 18 point games, not that long ago. So I don't want to, again, I want to write them off. But I think I'm with you where it's going to be a little harder to prioritize, especially if we like McCaffrey, if we think we're going to get to Josh Allen in either primary or like immediate lineups. I know we'll talk Matthew Stafford here in a sec. But I want to get some Kittle. Yeah. He's really easy to overlook all the time for me because they have so many names. I think we should have 149er in every lineup. Like their path to failure is hard for me to identify. I think that's logical too. Because someone's going to have a big game. And even if Kittle doesn't have the big game, he's probably going to have a game worth something, for example. So like, I think it's a good call. For the Cardinals, I don't feel the need to force a bringback personally. Me, McBride, Salaries fine at 66. But it's the same thing with Kittle where it's like, I'd rather spend down. I hate all their receivers. Michael Wilson probably back this week at Salaries 51. Like, I don't know, maybe you could do that. But like, I think I'll just avoid the Cardinals altogether, despite the fact that the injuries for the Niners make this game more competitive. So I'm probably out. What about you? Yeah, it's hard to look at a team that's going to have to throw if the game plays out the way it does. And Glossover McBride with, I mean, he's got 89, 60, 43, 131, 22, and 95 yards in his past couple games. But again, I know San Francisco, 900%, but they put their clamps on tight ends historically. And this year or so, I think I'd probably just move past it and not necessarily force a bringback, which I don't love doing, but that's what 2023 has done to me. I agree. Okay, let's talk about our final game here and talk about the commanders at the Rams where the Rams are six and a half point favorites. And the total is 50 and a half, which means that the Rams have the second highest total or implied total on the main slate of 28 and a half trailing just the 49ers. I think we'll both be hiding the Rams skill guys here in Kyron Williams, Pukinakua. Yep. But will you get to Matthew Stafford and any bringbacks on the opposing side, or do you rather just not deal with the headache that is the commanders? Should we probably sell people on Stafford here, right? Sure, do it. Okay, so he's facing the 32nd ranked adjusted past defense according to Number Fires metrics. Stafford's faced just one team, the worst in 23rd, and Number Fires adjusted past defense metrics. That was twice against the Cardinals. In those games, he averaged just 227 and a half yards, but 2.5 touchdowns for 0.31 passing net expected points per dropback. League average is like 0.07 right now. So it's like wildly efficient, 55% passing success rate, which doesn't really happen a lot over like larger samples. And he's averaging eight yards per attempt. In that span. And if you look, if you kind of narrow things down whenever he's played with Pukinakua, Cooper Cup, and Kyren Williams, he has five games there, 2.6 passing touchdowns, 250 yards. But two of those were actually against top two adjusted past defenses. I don't want to make this like the sample super narrow, but he's getting it done with these guys healthy. As you just sort of pointed out like, or asked on Slack, like, are the Rams just a good offense? And I think they're kind of just a good offense. Yeah. And the best selling point on Stafford. And look, we don't play a lot of low salary quarterbacks. We don't play a lot of pocket passers because they don't have a ton of upside this week, though, we have Josh Allen who can burn us. I think that can burn us pretty can still burn us. Mahomes hasn't really burned anyone this year. It's not the right matchup necessarily for him to, to flamethrower the slate. I think this is like a good case for Stafford and that extra salary this week can go a long way because we got one specific running back at least in receivers at the top are really intriguing. Is it enough where you would put Stafford in your main lineup or do you want to get to Allen there? I don't know what Stafford's path to a complete dud is other than throwing for like 250 and then Kyren Williams runs all the touchdowns in. Yeah. That's probably it. And that's, that's it. But this is the best pass defense matchup possible. He's been good against tough defenses. I mean, look, touchdowns are fluky, but he had three touchdowns in each game against Baltimore and Cleveland the past two weeks. Top two adjusted past defenses in football. I don't know if we're going to get a better sub $7,500 quarterback play the rest of the year. Doubt it. So I agree. I think he's like a real, real likely to be in my main lineup for this week. I think that honestly seeing what he did against Baltimore and Cleveland the past two weeks is what sealed the deal for me. Seeing him play that well in those matchups was really impressive. And also like the past matchup, like you said, is amazing. I want to emphasize how good this matchup is with the commanders. You referenced number fires, net expected points. So on the season, the top quarterback in NEP for dropback is Brock Purdy of 0.38. The number two quarterback is quarterbacks to a face of commanders since the trade deadline at 0.32. And then Dak Prescott is at 0.25. So like quarter, the generic quarterback facing the commander since the buy has been more efficient than Dak Prescott and Josh Allen. And like that's what you need to put up a huge number on a slate when you don't run. So I think that's why I'm really high on Stafford here. Higher than I've been on a sub 7,000 quarterback this year, I think, or sub $7,500 quarterback this year. And like, again, big part of the appeal is that we know who to stack him with. And to me, at least Pukin and Kua, you can make the case for Cooper Cup. And I think there is a case to be made. But like for me with the Kua, he's getting rushing attempts. He had a long one called back and a penalty two weeks ago against Cleveland. He's playing through all these injuries because he's just tough as nails. Overall, target shareer in the games with Cooper Cup and Pukin and Kua. The Kua does rank second behind Cup at 25%. But as a 31% deep target share in that span, and again, the rushing attempts do matter for me. So I think Pukin might be one of the top three or four plays in the slate regardless of position. How are you doing the stack partners with Stafford? Yeah, Pukin has a lot going for him. Just great combinations of work with Downfield, safer targets, carries, and he's laying out for catches. He's really locked in. And I think that someone like Stafford probably notices that kind of stuff too and gets him a little extra. Again, the biggest fear for me is that they move the ball and then just hand off the touchdowns. That's really about it. So N'Kua, I want him in my main lineup, I think, because I can stack him with Stafford. Are you going to play any other Rams other than Stafford and N'Kua to a high degree? Do you know actually is tied for the team lead in red zone targets this year? Who is tied? Yeah, do you know who? I'm assuming Kyren. Yeah, he missed four games and he's still tied for the team lead in red zone targets, not red zone chances, red zone targets tied with N'Kua and Kapu also missed time. But I think that means you could stack Kyren with Stafford because there's the potential for a passing touchdown with Kyren. Salary is really high, but his role is... It's similar to McAfrey's, honestly. He's not... I don't think he's good as a player as a McAfrey, which is why we're not going to view him as well, but his role is pretty similar. So you said play heavily. I don't think he meets that threshold. I don't think Kapu either. I think that... But I do want to get some Kyren in there. And with Kap, I would say if you give me 10 Stafford lineups, I'm going N'Kua and eight, and I'm going Kap and two. He had better production last week. He still looked really not right at times. That's why I'm low. But E-Show last week, there's a path to him playing, like having a good game. So that's why I go eight N'Kua, two-cup. You could pitch me on just going all N'Kua, honestly, though. Yeah, I just wanted to make sure we talked about it. And look, I love Kyren. I was targeting him coming back from the injury because his workload has been so good. I think he is a good player. And again, if you can just tie your running backs to an efficient offense, I will take that, especially whenever it is tied to such a good red zone workload. I'm building some lineups, as we're talking with McAfrey, even with Stafford and a lot of the values. It gets a little tricky. Like it's very, very, very doable. But you're basically saying, all right, McAfrey's the guy, and I'm going to find upside with just the lower salary plays, which I don't always love. Well, I said she won yesterday that had N'Kua in it. It was Stafford N'Kua and McAfrey. You probably played Tucker Kraft then. I did, but I like Tucker Kraft, so. I do too. I worry a little bit about what his sheer upside is. I know it's not a 64-yard game, but sure. That's one of those where I see the case. It's easy to make the case, but can you really give me like 15? Yeah. Let's talk about Antonio Gibson. Brian Robinson didn't practice on Wednesday with his hamstring injury, which to me implies he's probably not going to play. My concern with Gibson, I think you'll get a lot of targets, which is good. We want targets. For our running backs, my concern is that they seem to kind of like Chris Rodriguez as like an early down potential guy. And as much as we love targets for running backs, I do want early down work too, because it boosts your touchdown odds. So I would probably use some Gibson if Robinson sits, but I think even if there's no Robinson, I'd still want to keep them around 20% to 30%, just because I know the passive failure there are pretty obvious. How do you view Gibson if we assume Robinson does not play? Yeah. So we love targets for running backs on this show, like you said, because they're on average, historically worth about twice as much as a carry in terms of fandal points. That half point really adds up when it's tied at like a 70% catch rate. I think you probably just need to think about it that way, but we don't target third down backs because we love whenever someone has the featured rushing workload and then targets on top of that. That's usually really hard to find in the value range, which is why we aren't on value backs a lot. But no, I'm with you. I think that there's not necessarily enough... I'm not convinced that Gibson's, I know he's coming off the 10 carries. I'm not convinced he's going to get 15 carries and the five targets. So look, if you want to stack this game, you're kind of just one player, like one value play away. I probably wouldn't do it. But then again, sometimes these are the situations where I'm just too low and I miss out on... I get a little too stubborn and assume that there's not going to be a role, but I really don't see... Because I would love to play a value running back in this game. Like pass catching in this game? With pass catching? Yeah. So I would love to be there, but I have to be a little bit skeptical because there's a difference between seeing it a little bit and then the opportunity being there. What we've seen this year is that they like Brian Robinson a lot. Yeah. I so... Yeah. And again, they're not in the playoff hunt. They seem to like Rodriguez a bit. I know Ron Rivera is probably trying to save his job, but like shit might have sailed. So I would be okay with some, but I want to keep a pretty serious lid on exposure there. Let's talk about the pass catchers here for the commanders. Other pass catchers, I guess I should say, given that Gibson does catch passes. Yeah. We have four of them, which is frustrating and I think means I don't need to bring back. How are you viewing all the commander's options? Another one of the situations where there's like a recipe for upside for all of these guys in different ways. For Terry, it's Terry McClourn. It's what, 67? Yeah. Yeah. It's leading the team in targets, being good at football. And converting on his opportunities. For courtesy, it's getting creative looks, carries, red zone touches for dots. And it's kind of just catching some bombs or doing some stuff with his opportunities. This is probably the exact kind of profile that I would just say no. Yeah. I think it's really easy to get one of these guys wrong. And if you get them wrong, you're probably getting like a handful of fandal points. And that's not good. We want ceiling. We don't think about floor. But the reality is, if these guys don't have a huge game, they're not going to have a viable game. Yeah. I think I'm probably highest in the Samuel of the Bunch, just because I am a caricature of myself. He hasn't had as many rush attempts this year. But he has been getting a decent amount of work recently. If you look at the games that they played with all these guys healthy. Excluding games where he's gotten ejected or Logan Thomas left early, stuff like that. 20% target share for Samuel. McLaurin leads at 22%. But Samuel has a 28% red zone target share in that time. So that's pretty enticing. I don't know. McLaurin, for whatever reason, hasn't had any yardage juice this year. And Samuel has a better yards per route run and a better target per route run rate than McLaurin does this year. So I feel like I prefer Samuel. Like the best Fandall point output from a commander's receiver this year was from Johan Dotson in Week 8 when I believed Samuel was out. They have not had anybody else top 20 this year. Number two is Jameson Crowder. I forgot he was on their roster. I think he still is. I don't know. But McLaurin's best is 18.6. Terry, I think he recovered a fumble. In the end zone for that one. McLaurin's caught 48% of his downfield looks. It's a little subpar. Because for me, it's 10 yards. He hasn't really had the splash. I think it's 67. It's just a little too high. Final question. Tutu Atwell. Probably not going to play it seems like. DeMarcus Robinson is 56. He's been your guy more so than mine. But I think he had six deep targets last week. Let me fact check that. Because hashtag facts matter. I'm in the wrong division. Okay. There we go. Wait, do you break your spreadsheets down by division? Robinson last week, eight deep targets. My bad. Eight deep targets on 10 total targets. And I think he had four in the red zone. Four red zone, three end zone. So any Robinson for you? If he had 168 area hards. And now moving doors. On a 98% route rate. I feel like we kind of got to do it. Right. Against the league's worst past defense. Right. Some. Some for sure. And just to clarify, I like DeMarcus Robinson when he was running a route on the Chiefs. Sort of their offensive peak. Not that I'm a specifically at DeMarcus Robinson guy. He's also the fastest player on their team right now. You look by their 49s. If you take 2-2 Atwell out, he's the only guy who's run better than a 4-6 and you're at a 4-5-9 coming out of college like 15 years ago. So I have no idea what his age is to be fully honest with you. Okay. So yeah. I'll have a non-zero number of lineups with DeMarcus Robinson. I'm going to use him in dying to see this week too at in some spots. So hit three downfield targets the week before as well. Plus an end zone target. Mm-hmm. Okay. Yeah. Awesome. Not a main lineup consideration. Yeah. Although, would you rather like, I don't know, DeMarcus... It's going to be someone I hate. I guarantee it. No, like DeMarcus and Kelsey or like... Oh. Who would you get? Probably like an IU. If it's anyone plus Kraft, I would go Tucker Kraft. The Tucker Kraft lineup. Are you worried about Tucker Kraft, Jayden Reed overlap? Nope. So let's talk about the Green Bay Packers moving to our trends discussion for week number 15. Well-timed by you there. The Packers are facing the Bucks and the Bucks suck against good passing offenses. And, you know, there were some issues with the Packers. This past week, I'm running out of football, didn't play super great, but honestly, I'm still into them this week. So your first trends talking Packers, I'm going to talk Bucks and mine too because this game is on the early slates, my favorite game. Like a 1 p.m. only lineup is probably going to have Jordan Love a quarterback for me. But let's run through what you're seeing here with the Packers when they've had plus matchups. Okay, that's reassuring because I'm going to ask you about Jordan Love for the full slate as well. It's quarterback for me, I think. Yeah, I think he's about that for me as well. I'll talk about why here right now. So the Buccaneers have become a funnel defense again. They're 29th against the pass, according to Number Fire's adjusted metrics. Fifth against the rush, and that's just good news for Jordan Love, who's been not entirely matchup dependent, but somewhat matchup dependent this season. He's got six games against teams 20th or worse against the pass, and he's averaged 248 yards, two touchdowns per game, 7.8 yards per attempt. We're talking passing net expected points per drop back. He's at 0.24 there. If you would set the baseline at zero, if everyone just plays to the opponent's expectation, he's at a plus 0.17 on a per play basis, so really, really good accounting for opponents there, and a 47% success rate. In four games specifically against teams 24th or worse, he's over 8 yards per attempt barely, 8.8 yard ADOT. And then if you flip the script and look at his matchups, five matchups against top 12 opponents, 6.34 yards per attempt. So you mentioned, you alluded to his struggles at certain points. I think he just might be matchup dependent, and we used to talk a lot about matchup dependent quarterbacks whenever we didn't have a lot of rushing quarterbacks who were just studs. We looked at matchups and just pocket passers in matchups, and I think love kind of fits. His salary is 8,000. You could talk me into that. You could especially easily talk me into the QB4 for the week, but this team has a lot of injuries, which makes it a little bit tricky on Thursday to talk about who we love, although spoiler alert, Jayden Reed is our guy either way, because he's good to go. But Aaron Jones is limited. We talked about that in practice on Wednesday. A.J. Dillon's got a thumb injury as well. If Aaron Jones returns at a salary of 6,200, I don't think we'll have his full workload, but A.J. Dillon seems like a cool guy, but I don't think he's given them a ton. So I think that they'd probably lean on Aaron Jones a good bit. Christian Watson got a hamstring, Dantebian Wicks ankle as well. Watson missed Monday's game. It's a little too early to tell here, of course, but if we look at four games without Watson, Jayden Reed leads the team with a 23% target share at 7.5 per game. Just 44 yards per game, but getting some downfield work with 2.5 targets, at least 10 yards downfield, 2.3 red zone targets. So 23% total red zone opportunity share once you account for his rushes, which he does get. So Reed at 61, one of my favorite plays of the week, pretty safely going to say he's in my main lineup as a core play. Romeo Dobbs still a good role, but Luke Musgraves out, which opens up the door for Tucker Kraft. He played every snap last week, ran 81% of the routes, four targets for 64 yards again. I think we both like him a lot. I just want to be wary and not assume that he's got a huge ceiling, but if we're banking against Kelsey, Jason Hill, Kittle, just being sort of okay, Kraft makes a lot of sense. I believe in love, Jim, in this matchup. I love Reed already. Very hallmarky of you, yeah. I love love. You already mentioned it loves your QB4. Mm-hmm. We love Jane Reed. What else do you need injury-wise, health-wise, to want to play more Packers? I would need a full practice for Aaron Jones by Friday, because I don't know the last time he had a full practice. It's been years, I think at this point. A.J. Dillon being banged up does help there, and also Vita Vea being banged up for the Buccaneers helps. But it's now at 62, so that's enough to make him somewhat intriguing. I don't think I'll get the Dobbs personally. That might be a mistake, but I don't know. I think, I feel weird about him. For some reason, he doesn't give me strong upside vibes, I guess. That, I don't know. Vibes-based DFS is not the best, but I don't know. How about you for Dobbs specifically? I glossed over him in the notes because I figured that would be your case, and that's where I am. But he has seven targets last week, which is an 18% target share. He's got a 20.3% target share in the games without Christian Watson. He is, he scored seven times. My model has him with three expected touchdowns, so that's kind of fluky. But he also hasn't scored in a while, and it's not like every player's season levels out to zero by the end of the year. Some guys should overperform. At 64, I don't, I don't hate it by any means. I would, if I'm playing Jordan Love, it's probably like eight to two with Reed versus Dobbs. Yeah. In terms of my stacks. Yeah. But I do think that Dobbs makes sense. I think that's the right distribution. I just like, I like read a lot. So to me, Reed and Kraft are both like primary line of considerations. Aaron Jones, not there yet, but could get there if we get into full practice by Friday, especially if there's no Air A.J. Dillon, then that would help me with him quite a bit as well. If there's no A.J. Dillon, but Aaron Jones is full, where are you with him? Pretty high. Probably above Zeke at that point, honestly. I think it'd be silly to sit here and say not like he'd be a core play if that happens. I don't think that'll happen to be clear. Correct. If it were to happen, I'd be very high on Aaron Jones for sure. Do you think Christian Watson has a chance? No play. Do not. I didn't think so either, but I guess he's weird though, because like it's the second time this year where he's looked like it's the like tour every ligament in every part of his body and is like then like, maybe I'll play next week. So I don't know. He played the next week in the first one, but let's talk about the other side of the game, the Buccaneers. They're also in a plus matchup. They've had six previous matchups this year against bottom half defenses. And in those games, Baker Mayfield is at 0.13, passing net expected points per dropback. He's at 0.05 in the other game. So it's been a lift, not a huge one, but at least a lift for Baker Mayfield. They've hit 20 points as a team in four out of six games and two of the three highest point totals this year, 37 against the Texans, 27 against somebody else. And those came in those plus matchups. So they can have upside games and they become a bit more likely when the matchup is softer. To me, though, that doesn't mean we need to use anybody other than Mike Evans or Shot White. Baker's topped 20 Fandall points in, or he hasn't topped any in any of those games. He hasn't hit 24 in any game at all this year. Chris Godness had double digit Fandall points just three times this year. He has not hit 60 yards since October 22nd and now he missed practice with a knee injury on Wednesday. And Kate Auton has had one relevant game in that Texans game. But White and Evans, I think, are both really nice. White has topped 18 Fandall points in three of the six plus matchups. Packers ranked 21st against the Rush. One of the better matchups White has had this year. He has 98 plus yards from Scrimmage in seven of the past eight games and his two biggest adjust opportunity totals have come the past two games. So I think that White is a really nice play, even with his salary up to $7600. He's my favorite bring back for read and craft lineups. But I also actually do want to get to Mike Evans as well. All three of Evans 20 point games this year have come in the plus matchups. He's averaging 17.9 Fandall points per game in those games up from 14.8 for the full season. His salary is $8300. And I do want Nakua in that range, Diba Saniel's in that range. But I'm going to actually make sure I get some Evans as well. So Evans and White are both prime considerations for me. How are you viewing those guys? And will you get to any of the other three Ancillary Gebronies? Shout out Rich Rebar on this team. Who are the other three? Baker is an Ancillary Gebronie. Usually the quarterly doesn't count. But yeah, that's why I was confused. No, I've mentioned Godwin a couple times just as someone who I think has like a path to some touchdown regression. Let me see where I have him. He has a lot of red zone targets. His yardage stinks. Yeah. And in my model is basically relying on things like yardage more than red zone opportunities because they all sort of go hand in hand aside from very specific issues. So he should have four. He's got two on the flip side. Mike Evans is the most overperforming receiver in touchdowns on the main slate for me. That'll happen. You bust off 78 yarders. Yeah. So I just I like to be aware of that. It's not that he can't do it. It's not that he hasn't done it in the past. He's had really fluky touchdown numbers in his career. It's just I'm paying a premium for Mike Evans at his peak right now. I think someone like Puka Nukua, Debo Samuel, Brandon Ayuk make more sense as a standalone play. But if I'm stacking this game, I will take Mike Evans. But the more core play for me is Rashad White. We've loved him all year. He's got an 80 percent snap rate, which if I unfilter here for the main slate, would it sort? If I click sort. So Kyren's at 82. Sequan 82. McCaffrey 81. And then Rashad White is the only other player above 71 percent. So like the results aren't always there. But as you mentioned, his matchups have been pretty brutal for the like for the most part. I should probably prefer Rashad White to Zeke. He just makes it a lot harder to get to McCaffrey. Right. Would you rather play McCaffrey and Zeke or Kyren and Rashad White? McCaffrey and Zeke. I do think there's a way to play McCaffrey and White. It does mean like that's a difference of $1,100. So I think back to that lineup I had, I had McLaurin in there as a bringback with Stafford and Nakua. It would require me to jump down maybe double stacking Stafford with DeMarcus Robinson. I'm receptive to that. So yeah. And with Stafford, you're looking for passing touchdowns. So. Right. So I'm receptive to it for sure. Okay. Maybe I'll just duplicate that lineup and then do the Robinson plus White pairing versus versus McLaurin with Zeke. Could also go from Pollard. I prefer Pollard over Zeke, but like I could do that too. So yeah. But I think we're on the same page. There's about four running backs we feel really good with. It sounds like Kyren's probably our RB5 but hard to get to. Yes. Actually, unless Aaron Jones, we get him as like the more legit option. Do you like any other running backs and like the between Camara and like, we mentioned James Coke. We like him as game stacks, but like between Breeze Hall at 75, we've got Breeze Rashad White who we like, Saquon, Mosturt, Henry, Devon HN, Bijan and Camara. I'm not using any of those guys. I don't think so either. And it feels it feels weird, but I might put James Coke above Kyren potentially at salary that I could see. Yeah. But yeah, I think we were on the same page there. Okay. Let's go to your second trend and talk about Waco for Flacco because Joe Flacco has been an improvement. He hasn't been good. I'm not going to say that, but he's been an improvement on what they have before. So at least there's that. So you're going to dig into what they've done with Joe Flacco and what it means to the rest of that Brown's offense. Yeah, never, you know, I like to say, you know, if he told me in August, I'd be talking about, you know, this player by week six. I'd be like, what happened? But never thought I'd be talking about Joe Flacco at any point ever again. But he's played two games. He's averaged over 280 passing yards and two and a half touchdowns on 44 and a half attempts. So the volume is up. His eight dots, 9.8 yards, which is wild. NFL average just under eight. The rest of the Browns are at 8.2 if you exclude Flacco. Now, as you mentioned, it's really kind of misleading. The EPA numbers are really bad. And so that's something to consider. This could come crumbling down. And not only are the EPA numbers bad, the success rates okay at best. So there's a lot of kind of either broken plays or a lot of over expectation performance here. Let me see if I can pull up quickly his because I forgot to check this one. His completion percentage over expectations actually minus 4.1 percent. So I don't know how this all goes hand in hand. It doesn't quite help. But what we know is that the Browns are throwing it more. Their pass rate over expectation is plus 4.7 percentage points according to NFL faster. Their pass rate over expectation leading into his starch were minus 6.4 percent. Roughly the same pace. So no huge change there. But this shift in passing volume has brought life to a couple pass catchers. We saw some big games or building blocks of really big games at least for the pass catchers with Elijah Moore. Then week 13, David and Joe Coon week 14. But if you look at the two game sample, Amari Cooper is the one who leads and target share his salary 7200 this week. 22.6 percent target share for nine and a half targets per game. 4.5 downfield targets per game again for me. 10 plus yards at least on those. His ADOT in this sample is 10.3 yards. He's averaging just under 100 air yards per game. Just 55 and a half yards per game. But caught three of nine downfield targets you love to see. 9 downfield targets in two games. Want to see a few more catches there. They're not always going to be catchable from Flacco. But that opportunity is pretty solid. Elijah Moore, is his salary really 5,700? Or did I write this down wrong? Seems low. I thought it was 62. It is 57. Wow. Okay. Okay. So he's at a 21 percent target share. He's got nine per game. Six and a half downfield per game. A lot of this came in week 13 when he had set the single season high in air yards for a receiver this season. He's averaging just under 165 air yards per game. 63 yards per game though. Minus 15 percent catch rate. It is what it is. But look, you could do worse process wise than a sub 6000 receiver who might just get a bunch of prayer yards. I don't think he's a core play. But if that's salary, there's some appeal there. David and Joakoo. One should be efficient. One should be not. I'd probably go Robinson for offensive expectations though. I agree. I agree. And then David and Joakoo will probably get some popularity at 62. The models have like the, it seems like all of the projection systems that have loved in Joakoo for a while. Yeah. His salary is 6,200. Maybe that's what you were thinking of for war. But 17 percent target share coming off of a big game. The two that you touched on game. I'll even shout out Cedric Tillman at five targets per game. I think he's, sorry, it's 4,800. He's got a 13.4 yard ADOT three downfield targets per game. I wouldn't get there. But if I was building like some dollar lineups and just kind of making stuff happen, trying to get like McAfrey plus CD lamb or something just wild. It is what it is. I'm not going to the running backs. I don't think even if even if Ford is out, but look, this is a very different team now. I like Cooper. I think this salary might be a little high relative to other options. I wouldn't hate though, if I had to settle for a Mari Cooper. Sure. Because of the volume seems there. Do you have interest in Cooper? Do you have interest in more? What about in Joakoo? Interest in Cooper because he missed half that first game and still had five targets and then 14 targets when he was healthy. He's a better player than Elijah Moore. I feel pretty comfortable in saying that. So interest there again, it's just like, will I be in that salary range? That's the one hang up. So more so roster construction and player level. I'm receptive to Elijah Moore. I agree with you where I prefer to Marcus Robinson, but like, you know, it's not the worst idea to use a guy 57 on a team that's suddenly very pass heavy. I'm not going to get the backfield either because that matchup with the Bears is pretty tough on the ground. I prefer the other tight ends over in Joakoo. So it sounds like I'm pretty wishy-washy on them, but like I'm at least receptive to a Mari and Elijah Moore. And I have not been for most of this year for those guys. Yeah. So Cooper's target per route rate would be like 32.6%. I think they would put him second on the full season behind Tyree Kill and that two game sample. That's pretty good. And Puka would be among relevant guys. Puka is at 29.8%. So. Okay. Yeah, it's not bad. I think he's more of a like a cash game, had to head to sort of play. I agree with that. Yeah. I think that's very fair. Let's talk about Tyree Kill because the Dolphins are in a tough matchup this week. My final trend, they've been kind of funky recently. They've put up some good point totals, but like they felt off. I don't know if that's just me, but like they felt a bit off and now they're facing the Jets. So I wanted to see what the Dolphins have done in tough matchups this year, but it's kind of hard to do so because they haven't had a lot of tough matchups. They've had only one game this year against a top 10 defense by Number of Fires Metrics. And that was against the Jets the first time they saw them a couple of weeks ago, that Black Friday game. We expand the sample to top 16 defenses. It's a six game sample. So a lot of like middling defenses, not a lot of great defenses. They still average 25.7 points per game in that sample. That's down from 32 in the other games. To a tongue of aloas, passing any peep or drop back is 0.08. It is 0.39 in the easier matchups. So that's kind of tough there too. It has impacted his DFS output quite a bit because averaging 15.4 Fando points per game in these tougher matchups. If the wind remains high, it's currently 17 miles per hour. That's enough to cross off to. I had interest in him at 76 when I first opened the salaries in the slate, but digging in more, I'm pretty much off right now. Tyree Kill still has 20 plus points in three separate games, but he's also been under 13 in the other three. So a lot of his Duds have come in tougher spots, and this is one of those. Jaylin Waddle has been more neutral. He had eight targets in the first matchup against the Jets. His salary is 7,000. I'm highest on him of this trio, but probably would prefer a Mari over him, honestly, in that 7,000 range. The backfield is tough because salaries are high. The two games with Devon Achan back are he most or it leads with 16 carries per game, but just two total targets. He has 75.5 yards of scrimmage. He's been like David Montgomery, but at a higher salary kind of. Achan is 87 yards on 12 carries and 6.5 targets per game, but his salary is 85. So I want to be high on Achan in general, but that's too high of a salary for me to get there in this matchup. So I was high on this offense and the pieces within it earlier on this year. I just don't think this is the spot to go hard at them. So am I missing out on a chance to get the dolphins at a lower roster rate than usual, all things considered? Probably are missing out, but you're not getting any salary relief for the matchup, the conditions either. I will just shout out like 8,500 for Achan, 8,000 for Moster. Those are kind of salaries for more featured backs and they split work to some degree. Achan coming off of a nine target game, two downfield targets in that last game, one of which was should have been like an 80 yard touchdown catch. I don't know if you saw that one. I had him in the two game flight, so yes, I did. So 48 yards in that game. So he'd probably be the most likely player for me to get to, but Hill coming off of the injury conditions, tough matchup. I might say for the first time this year, really with Hill, if he burns me, he burns me, but I think the probability that he just torches me gets lower and lower the more I look at it. Like you could use McCaffrey indoors in the best matchup on paper or you could use Hill outside in 17 mile per hour winds in one of the worst matchups. I'm going to go McCaffrey. Yeah. I mean, a couple of weeks ago, we had the Tyreek or McCaffrey conversation. You leaned Tyreek a bit. I ended up playing McCaffrey in our head to head. You played Tyreek. I don't think it's really a conversation this week. I agree with that. That was against the commanders, by the way, which is why you should use Nekua this week. Weather for this week beyond that Dolphins Jets game again, that one's 17 mile per hour winds right now, which is tough. Other really tough one is Falcons Panthers. So all of the pieces in there are going to be downgraded that we've talked about, you know, tons of pieces. For this game, 16 mile per hour winds with rain likely. So Panthers defense at $3300. Sign me up, baby. Texans Titans, 10 mile per hour winds right now with rain potential there. For Browns Bears, wind speeds 11 miles per hour. That's pretty in line with what those two teams typically play in. So it's not a massive deviation. There is also rain potential in Cleveland for that one. And then finally for Bill's Cowboys, slight chance of rain, wind speeds 9 miles per hour. Nothing to worry about right now. Just worth checking back on later. Let's dig in now to our positional plays for week number 15. Brandon, starting off at quarterback, who are you targeting this week? Again, we got the same guys across the board. I think we can also talk about pivots. We also talked about some of these people in a lot of detail already. But we're really looking at Matthew Stafford, but I don't want to forget about prioritizing Josh Allen. The afternoon games this week, really intriguing across the board. Allen could be in the best game of the week pretty easily. Dallas is a tough adjusted pass defense, but in four games against top eight adjusted pass defenses, Allen still at 23.9 fandal points per game. 266 passing yards, 2.3 touchdowns. Passing success rate of almost 50%, 0.23 passing net expected points per dropback over expectation. Again, you'd expect that to be zero if they played the level of opponent. That's a phenomenal number. Also, 6.3 carries 25 yards and 0.5 touchdowns in this matchup. He's going to run the ball the rest of the season because they need to win. He's going to do whatever it takes. It's hard to sort of match up with that on the high end. But I think he's kind of the one guy with amazing upside. There are other guys who could maybe get there, but if that's all we're looking at, I'm okay going down to Stafford as we talked about. I already mentioned how good his splits are in the sort of rare opportunities that he gets against weaker pass defenses. But again, I think the thing that really stands out to me is he's had five games with Puka Nakua, Cooper Cup, and Kyren Williams. He's averting 250 yards and 2.6 touchdowns in those, and two of those were the most recent games, as you see here on the screen. If you're watching along on YouTube against the top two pass defenses in football, he is now facing the worst pass defense in football. So what else could you want? And it's also a slate where weather isn't play. It's not in play here as they're playing indoors. There is some wind at 0.5 still, but it's not terrible by any means. And I feel like if you're going to spend down a quarterback, this is the spot to do so. More so than we've had pretty much this entire year. Do you like Sam Howell? No. Okay. Do you? Like he'd be on the bottom of my consideration set, but I don't play that many quarterbacks. Yeah, I will get there. I have the same two quarterbacks as you and Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford, and nothing really to add. As far as those two guys go again with the commanders, 0.32, passing net expected points for drop back allowed. Since the trade deadline, like you kind of got to go with that. Josh Allen, 5, 9, and 10, rush attempt with Joe Brady as OC. I think this is a good week to keep your core tight at quarterback. And to me, it's Allen and Stafford in the top tier, Dak in the second tier by himself, and then probably at Jordan Love as quarterback 4. And I might not get to a fourth quarterback. So I think it's a very branding kind of slate in that regard where you can keep your core tight and feel pretty good about it. So I think that's where I'm at is probably just three quarterbacks. And if I get to a fourth, it'd be Jordan Love for me. Sounds good to me. Alrighty, running back. What are you cooking up there? I'll let you talk about McCaffrey more, and I'll pivot to Kyron Williams. If you look at the five games that he shared with Pukinakua and Cooper Cup, he's averaging 128.8 scrimmage yards. He's got an 86% red zone rushing share, the overall red zone share. If you count for all plays in his carries and targets, 49.1%. That's an elite number. He's at 66% of the routes. This is just one of the best workloads in football across the board, and this team should move the ball easily. I don't know what else you could want. I still prefer McCaffrey if I can get there, but Kyron's probably more of a, like, what's the word? Compromise. I don't know, there's a word for it. Settling? Like, I don't know. It's like, settling. Starts with a C. It'll come to me in a couple of hours. My sec. I have no idea what word to try to get to here. Look, I'll figure it out. We'll cut it out in post. No one's listening. Yeah, sure, sure. Second Love. Do we need to pivot again here? No. Okay. Second Love is Tony Pollard. Game of the Week. He's at at least 70% of the snaps in three straight games. 83 scrimmage yards on 15 carries and four and a half targets. Very viable. 33.7 red zone opportunity share as well. Kind of a moderate defense here in terms of running back matchups. And Pollard, the efficiency does check out pretty well, but I also just kind of like what I'm seeing from him from an on-field standpoint. And then third Love. I'll just stick with Ezekiel Elliott. But Patriot's offense at least showed some life last week, which feels like a long time ago because they played Thursday, but look, you couldn't really pencil in a much more realistic workload for a running back in 2023. Thank you. Alfredi already home. I was like that. I think that came to my head, but I was like, that doesn't sound right either. I think I wanted to say consolidation, but boy. I don't know. I couldn't read the word out already. I tried to just say Alfredi and that doesn't make any sense. I think I thought Alfred for some reason, but already home, consolation. Thank you, already home. So we're not cutting it out on post. We're not going to retroactively like men in black wipe the brains of people watching on YouTube. Thank you already home for saving the show. Don't make me look good in this. Make me look like an idiot who doesn't know words. But Ezek, 140 yards, 91% snap rate, 75% of the red zone opportunities. Chiefs are a good match up here on the ground. I'm not going to overthink it, but I'm also not going to sit here and say Ezek is a 100% core play. Yep, I agree with that too. My first love is Christian McCaffrey as you alluded to. I can get here using Stafford. Honestly, Brandon, remind me to send you a screenshot of a lineup I built with Kyren and McCaffrey. You're going to hate it. I know that. But like you can do it with the Marcus Robinson. I knew he was going to be in it. And Tucker Kraft. Yeah, but just listed out the whole lineup. But yeah, you can do it. He is at 139.1 yards instrument per game in the games with the big four being fully healthy. That is McCaffrey with a 51% red zone share. He's had no touchdowns in two of the past five games. So we kind of forgotten how big his upside can get. The 49ers defense is banged up. So this game may stay more competitive later on. I think that's a positive for sure. My second level also be Tony Pollard. Pollard, his passing game usage is getting better than what it had been coming out of their bi-week. He's had four plus targets and four straight games, which is a lot to get. A lot of adjust opportunities are Karius plus two X targets. He said 22, 25, 28 and 32 the past four games. Despite that, his salary is back down to $7,000. I love getting past catching backs in games with high totals and tight spreads. So he gets me lower salary exposure to it. So I do like Pollard. You talked about Zeke and I do like him. So let's talk about Rashad White here briefly. It's not a game that we feel pretty good about stacking. The Packers are pretty soft against the run. And we saw that with Tommy DeVito shredding them back on Monday. But I mean, we saw Safe Home Bark. They do pretty well on that matchup as well. White has been really good honestly throughout this year, especially relative to the expectations. The Sour has gone up. Yeah, but like it's a pretty fun game. I took the over this morning with the wind speed going down one mile per hour. That made all the difference in the world to me. So I think he pairs well with Jane Raider Tucker-Crafts to bring back option. So I do like Rashad White. Prefer Zeke, I think at salary, but I do think that White is pretty fun. And he's right there. It's not a huge gap between those two guys, even considering it's salary. Yeah, I just think like it's 130. I could have played Rashad White, who's been good all year finally getting a good matchup before I played the guy on the team that might score three points. Might. Yes, that would be above expectations for them at times. Receiver, what you got there? I'll just stick with the same plays and then we can kind of rattle off some pivots if we want. But the reason I like Pukinakua is everything. Just checks every single box with his workload. There's five games with Cup and Kyron Williams. 26% target share for 8.2 per game. Darnage of just 63 yards per game, but great 8-odd of almost 11 yards. Four downfield targets per game. Washington is 32nd in yards per route run allowed to receivers. 30th in 8-odd allowed to average up the target. And 28th in catch rate over expectation. Couldn't really like slot in a better situation for Pukinakua this week. Second love is Rashid Rice. I think Rice and my next guy, Jaden Reed, we like McCaffrey a ton, we like Stafford, but Rice and Reed might be the first guys I just plug in. So that's how high I am on these two. The breakout for Rice is continuing 10-9 and 10 targets in his past three games. So in-game target shares are 31.3%, 30% and 25.6% to help sort of give some context. It hasn't just been elevated passing. His workload's been really good relative to the rest of the team. 81 yards on those 9.7 targets per game. Really low 8-odd, but he's still getting some downfield work. Two downfield targets per game. Two red zone targets per game for a 40% red zone target share. Seems like his workload is just outpacing that salary, which I like. Then Jaden Reed, we talked about a lot, gets carries, has led this team in target share without Christian Watson, but love the carries. He's 1.3 per game in his recent games. Never bad for a receiver to get high-leverage carries, and he is good at football. And the Buccaneers, again, funnel defense. So I'm not necessarily looking for the best rushing game from Jaden Reed, but I think elevated passing is going to go toward him anyway. You mentioned the value of rushing attempts. I think it actually does apply to Pook and Nakua as well. Nakua is my top love at wide receiver checking into $8,000, and I just don't think we can pass him up in this matchup. Again, a 25% target share in the games he's played with Cooper Cup and Kiering Williams with 30% of the deep targets, but also he has four rushing attempts across the past four games. He had a really nice run that got called back on a penalty as well, so the rushing yardage from him could be even a bit better than what it looks like right now. And I think to me, what the rushing attempt signal is, they want the ball in this guy's hands regardless of how it gets there. So that's good for Jaden Reed. It's good for some other guys, but especially for Pook and Nakua as well. And I think that the salary of $8,000 is too low when it's a guy who has this good of a median expectation and also a very obvious path to a ceiling, playing indoors against the league's worst pass defense. I think that's too many boxes being checked to ignore. So Pook and Nakua, to me, is one of the top priorities any position across all a week 15. My second love is also Rishi Rice. I just agree with you what you're saying here, where his role is better than the salary implies. The route rate finally went up this past week, but even before then, he had 10 and nine targets in the previous two games, and he had 10 last week. And that's when they said, hey, we want to get the ball to our good playmakers. Rishi Rice is that. He's had good yardage totals in those games too. So the Patriots ranked first against the rush, but our 25th against the pass. So volume here should be good. So I like Rishi Rice a lot. My third love is also Jaden Reed. I typically don't like low ADOT guys because I want that yardage upside. But again, they want the ball in his hands. That matters a lot to me. He had 10 targets in their first game with no Christian Watson back out. And he had four rush attempts on Monday alone, two of which came inside the red zone. East Curtis Samuel, it's back. Being used like 2020 Curtis Samuel is an underrated role for DFS, both in terms of meeting expectation, but also upside. So I like Reed a lot. I would also say to Marcus Robinson, 56, if you need to save salary, maybe Elijah Moore, 57. And then also Gabe Davis, 62 in game stacks of Cowboys Bills. All guys, I am okay. Any other receivers you want to shout out here? Again, Dibo and IU I think are great pivots and Amari. I'm kind of warming up to Amari at 72. Don't mind my Kevin's. Okay, tight end. What you got there? I got Jake Ferguson, 59. I've got single game target shares of 20 and 20.5% in his past two. The role of scaling back up from where it was earlier in the season. Bills kind of funneling some extra targets toward tight ends or 23rd in target per route rate allowed to tight ends. Or sub par, like barely in the literal sense, like just sub par in yards per route rate allowed to tight ends. So it's a fine matchup and it's a way to give exposure to this game if you're bringing it back from a Josh Allen stack, or if you're trying to play DAC, playing a quarterback and plugging in his tight end, never a bad idea. Second love is Tucker Kraft, the sort of punt play of the week at 4700. But I think there's a little bit more to it than just sort of punting. He's got three games without Luke Musgrave. 97% snap rate, 76% route rate, four targets per game. It's under a 12% target share. But solid red zone role, 19% target share. Tampa Bay, 26th in target per route rate allowed to tight ends. 22nd in yards per route in 24th in ADOT. So I think it's probably hard to find a better sub $5,000 tight end this week. I agree. We don't always get to a sub $5,000 tight end. We do have it here with Kraft. For the reasons you mentioned, he is my second love as well. Only two or 12 targets in the three games without Musgrave. But lots of snaps. Targets have been pretty efficient and they should be efficient in this matchup too against the box. So I will take all the salary I can save on a slate where I like Josh Allen, Christian McCaffrey, Puka Nakua, Mike Evans, Debo, et cetera, et cetera. I'm okay, saving the salary tight end. I also have Jake Ferguson as my top guy because he's just good access to a great game for $5,900. And he has a 17% target share since they're by when they've been throwing a ton. So 17% matters even more in this offense with a 24% red zone target share. And the reason I've come around on him, you were right in that you were hiring him earlier on. I have come around though because the yardage on the side is there, 70 plus yards in three out of seven games since their bye week. So fully in on Jake Ferguson, like him a lot here. Defense, you got a question? Any other tight ends? King Cade when I'm stacking Bill's Cowboys. Probably just primarily him, I guess. Okay. So low on Kennel, low on Kelsey this week by comparison. Because I want to get to McCaffrey, yeah. Yeah, all right. Defense. Panthers, they're the kind of one standout here at 33 against the Falcons. Even their last and pressure rate according to next gen stats. Desmond Ritter still takes sacks against low pressure teams. He's 2.2 per game with a seven and a half percent sack rate. Really bad EPA numbers even when you adjust for these low pressure teams. I don't think you do a whole lot better than Caroline at home at 33. I agree. They're my top one as well. Like for a cash game, I think you just put them in and figure out the rest later. So love the Panthers at 33. I would say that or 34, 33, 33. I think there is appeal in the Rams, given how often the commanders drop back. Their salaries pretty high at 43, but it's also not super restrictive. And they're not a great defense, but I like that idea. If I'm stacking like Bill's Cowboys or if I'm stacking Packers, something like that, I don't mind getting to the Rams at 43. Because I don't think they'll catch a lot of attention for this week. So fun with going to them as well as a potential other option. Any final thoughts for you on the week 15 main slate before we close up shop for today? I think we really covered this one. Lot of ways to go at the top games, the top three. Maybe some... Look, I think the thing that stands out to me is the two areas we really overlooked were the 75 to 9,000 range at running back and the stud tight ends. And just overlooking the sense that it sounds like we're low on that range. So there are still ways to get different, even though like me and Jim overlapped exactly with our picks. There are still ways to get different without being goofy. And that's always something that you can take advantage of if you... Not that what we say is representative of everything, but there are still going to be ways to get a little bit different, even though there are a couple obvious spots this week. Is this the most aligned we've ever been on a slate in nine NFL seasons of doing a podcast together? Well, we started doing the same. We used to like not talk about the same loves. But like, would we have like had this much alignment overall previously, even if we had allowed that? Probably once or twice, I feel like there were, but exact overlap, I don't know. Yeah, I think it's pretty good. I feel good about that, you know? Could be a bad sign, but I think it's good omen. Yeah, I trust your process. No, I would never admit that publicly, but I trust your process. So we're overlapping. I'll feel good about that. That is all that we have here for today on the week 15 preview podcast. We are once again back with you on Monday to wrap it all up. That'll be live on the Fiddle YouTube page at 10 a.m. Eastern. And that's actually the last recap show of the year I just realized. So come swing by 10 a.m. Eastern. Talk about week 15 and recap things there. Also check out the Daily ISO at Tom Vecchio for your Thursday night NBA DFS. Needs all right here on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast, meet and over on Fandall TV plus branded. People have questions for you on Twitter. Where can they find you there? I'm on Twitter at Goodwill 13 G D ULA 1 3. And I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis. You can find me on threads at Jim dot Sonnis. You can find Fandall research on Twitter at Fandall research. Want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your lineups across week number 15. We'll talk to you once again Monday to wrap it all up. This has been the heat check fantasy podcast right here on the fan dual podcast network.