 Hey everyone, this is Dan. Let's talk about BioNTech and Moderna. I'm very bullish about these two companies Let me explain why First of all, this is the review of the price forecast. I did in my March 15th video on Moderna and BioNTech at a time I projected Moderna to be at $180 to $200 a share and BioNTech at $130 to $150 a share before the end of July 2021 and on that day the closing price for Moderna was 143.66 and BioNTech was 107.88 quite its distance from my target price range Us of today Moderna has gone up $33 at 170.81 and BioNTech has reached the high point of my range at 151.54. I'm pretty happy that my predictions are coming true Today I'd like to tell you that I'm revising my targets for Moderna to 200 and BioNTech at 210 by the end of 2021 in the next few minutes I'll be talking about the most important news that happened recently related to the two companies We'll look at the number of new COVID cases in the US UK and Israel where they have many people vaccinated already with either one of the vaccines and We'll look at my own the evaluation of the companies Then we'll compare different vaccines available in the market and then we'll look at the charts technical analysis Us of April 15 yesterday. It was reported that The European Union is in the process of drafting a huge order for the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine To the tune of 1.8 billion doses for the year 2022 that's a very significant increase from the current order for 2021 and then on April 13 It was reported that Johnson and Johnson Vaccine had been stopped because of the blood clotting problems and then March 15 It was reported that the major European nations Suspended the use of AstraZeneca vaccine because of blood clotting issues That was about a month ago and most recently as of yesterday Denmark became the first country to permanently stop the use of AstraZeneca vaccine because of the blood clotting problem That's bad news for AstraZeneca, but the flip side of it is that it would mean more sales for Moderna and BioNTech Also on April 12th The Chinese officials admitted that the Chinese made vaccines are not very effective And they're trying to mix the different vaccines to boost the effectiveness All the news the Moderna and BioNTech vaccines are found to be effective for at least six months The fact that they are not a permanent fix is good news from a commercial standpoint That means it will probably be needing booster shots at least once a year That'll be a good steady stream of income for both Moderna and BioNTech From a health perspective, it's not so good from a commercial perspective It's great news for the two companies and then Moderna and BioNTech are both testing booster shots to counter new COVID variants Such as variants from UK, South Africa, Brazil, etc Those variants are supposed to be more contagious than the original virus In the meanwhile, BioNTech and Moderna have been conducting vaccine trials to include children as young as age 12 And they hope to have results by June 2021 If you like what you've seen so far, I appreciate it very much If you can click the like, subscribe and notification button So that you can be notified when I post another video in the future Also, this is for the sake of the YouTube algorithm Thank you very much, let's continue Let's compare the different vaccines available in the market First of all, the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is 52% effective after the first dose and 95% effective after the second dose And it's selling for about $20 a dose Based on the most recent contracts, Moderna is 80.2% effective after the first dose and 95.6% effective After the second dose and it's being selling for about $32 to $37 per dose Johnson & Johnson is a one-dose vaccine, 68% effective It's being selling at about $10 a dose And the vaccine is supposed to be 85% effective overall against severe disease But it has the blood clot issues As we mentioned earlier, AstraZeneca, 76% effective after the first dose, 82% effective after the second dose It's been selling for $3 to $4 a dose But also it has blood clotting issues on the patients CenoVac, that's made by China It's a two-dose vaccine according to the target It's 91.25% effective Indonesia says it's 65.3% effective And Brazil says it's only 50.4% effective And Sinopharm, two-dose vaccine also The UAE said it's 86% effective As we mentioned, the Chinese officials said the Chinese vaccines are not as effective as they thought And that's why they're trying to mix the different vaccines to boost the effectiveness Gamalaya sputnet produced by Russia is supposed to be 91% effective Basically, Moderna and BioNTech have the best vaccines in the market That's why I'm very bullish about the two companies Let's look at the new COVID cases in the US, UK and Israel Where they have high percentages of people vaccinated with either the BioNTech or the Moderna vaccine In the US, so far 38.5% of the people have received the first shot And 24.3% of the people have received the second shot According to the chart, it's going down quickly here Although there's being a resurgence here That's because some of the newer variants have been spreading Such as the UK variant, which has been spreading very quickly in Midwestern states such as Michigan But I'm pretty sure as a percentage of people getting vaccinated go up That this line will come down quickly It'll follow the pattern of UK and Israel, which we will look at now In the UK, 48.6% of the people already received the first shot And 12.7% of the people received the second shot The chart looks really good It's dropping very quickly Israel, where 59% of the people received the first shot And 54.8% of the people have received the second shot The curve is even more impressive It's to the point where it's almost zero As they roll out the vaccines in the different countries I'm pretty sure that the pandemic will be under control in about six to nine months And more importantly, more and more countries would gravitate towards Either the BioNTech vaccine or the Moderna vaccine Because they are the best available in the market This is my own calculation for the stock price for Moderna I use the forward PE ratio of nine different pharmaceutical companies With the average of 12.4 average PE ratio And I assume a 33% net margin, which is a net margin of Regeneron And then I extrapolate from the assigned contracts for 2021 Factoring the increase Because of the problems related to Johnson and Johnson and AstraZeneca And that's why I assume that they will have 5.3% of the world market share in 2021 And it will go up to 615% for 2022 and 2023 And with these assumptions, I arrive at my price forecast of $200 a share by the end of 2021 Similarly, for BioNTech I use the same assumptions for the forward PE and net margin But for BioNTech, there's added advantage of this contract That will soon sign with the EU for 1.8 billion doses for 2022 And using these assumptions, I arrive at my price estimate of $210 a share by the end of 2021 Let's look at the other analyst's opinions I'm here comparing the analyst's projections from March 15 to today If there's any number that's been changed during this past month I highlighted the changes with the yellow background For example, with Moderna, Yahoo increased the target slightly from 174.25 to 175.58 Louis-Nevolier maintained his rating of overall an A strong buy rating TipRanks.com revised the high target from 208 to 234 And the medium target to 165, the low target remained the same at 80 CNN Money also revised the high target outward to 234 For BioNTech, Yahoo increased the target to 126.5 from 120.28 Louis-Nevolier increased its rating from overall B to overall A It is now a strong buy And TipRanks.com increased the high target from 126 to 130 And average target from 116 to 117 I believe the analysts are really lagging behind what's happening with BioNTech That's why my target is fairly aggressive at $210 a share By the end of 2021 I'm pretty sure within the next 2-3 weeks the analysts will revise their price targets for BioNTech Outwards Let's look at the chart This is a chart comparing the price movement of BioNTech with the movement of Moderna and the S&P index and the NASDAQ index The candlestick chart here is BioNTech And then we have this yellow line which is Moderna The purple line here is the SPY ETF which is pegged with the S&P 500 index And then the blue line here is QQQ the ETF that's pegged to the NASDAQ 100 And then I plotted also TQQQ Which is the triple ETF pegged to the QQQQ The TQQQQ has three times volatility of QQQQ As we can see that the movement of BioNTech more or less Follow the TQQQ movement with about the same volatility Except it's got its own also ups and downs depending on the situations with the pandemic And then Moderna is even more volatile than TQQQ or BioNTech And in the last six months BioNTech went up by 61% and Moderna went up by 131% Both are very impressive stocks This is a daily chart for BioNTech We can see that it broke out of this ascending triangle in the last five, six days and started to shoot up We have this overboard warning sign from RSI And then of course preceding that we have the buy signal from DMI and the buy signal from MACD So definitely BioNTech has been very bullish in the last few days But it's getting to the point where it's probably overboard So it might ease up a little bit either go down a little bit or maybe just go sideways Let the RSI indicator cool down a little bit before it resumes It's March upwards This is the hourly chart Of course it's been going up and up in the last couple weeks We can see that the RSI has been flashing this overboard signal almost every day Yet the next day the price continued to go up because of the very positive news About this imminent European contract from 2022, the 1.8 billion doses Certainly in the last few hours we still have this bullish buy signal from DMI and the bullish buy signal from MACD Let's look at the support and resistance levels for BioNTech Because the price has gone quite a lot above the previous peak of $129 a year Achieve in December of last year I have to use the Fibonacci extension to look at the support and resistance points For support, I see 147 Which is the Fibonacci extension of 38.2 percent The next level down will be 140, which is the 23.6 percent on the Fibonacci extension And the next level down will be 129 Which is the previous peak for resistance. I see 153 Which is at a 50 percent Fibonacci extension and the next level up is 159 and the next level up is 178 This is a daily chart from Moderna. We also see that it broke out of this Triangular pattern and started to go upward in the last couple weeks In the meanwhile, we do have the bullish buy signal from DMI and bullish buy signal from MACD This is the hourly chart We have the bullish buy signals from both DMI and MACD From the last few hours and again, we have this warning sign of overboard situation With the RSI indicator and of course when it hit that point the price started to go down a little bit I don't think the price would drop a lot the next few days It'll most likely just go sideways horizontally for a few days until the RSI indicator cools down a little bit And then it will continue to march up again Similar to what happened to BioNTech Let's look at the support and resistance levels. Again, I plotted the Fibonacci extension lines here First of all, for support, I see this historical support point at 155 And then 143, the next level down will be 124 So these are the support levels for resistance levels Then we will have to look at the Fibonacci extension I see the next level up for resistance will be at 189 And incidentally today's closing price is 169.98 And the next level up beyond 189 with 201 for resistance and then 219 To recap my forecasts, I believe Moderna will hit $200 a share and BioNTech Will be at $210 a share by the end of 2021 Thank you for watching all the way to here If you're watching this video a few days after April 16, 2021 You might want to check the update section below this video In case I've entered some update notes And if you like what you've seen, please click the like, subscribe and notification button So they will be notified when I post the next video This is also for the sake of the YouTube algorithm As usual, I welcome your comments, questions and suggestions I'd like to remind you that I'm not a financial advisor You should make your own decision regarding buying or selling stocks And you should probably consult with your advisors before you do so This concludes my presentation for now I will chat with you again in the next few days In the meanwhile, I'd like to wish you the very best of luck with your financial investments