 Want to start things off for today by giving a big thank you to Tom Vecchio and Austin Swain Who filled in for me to the past two weeks here on the solo shock giving you hopefully a very profitable insights and it's a It's a very fun job to do doing the solo shot each day, but it is a lot of work So I appreciate all the effort they did to allow me to go to my honeymoon in France and Spain Have a lot of bread and a lot of cheese a lot of seafood and now get back here to do what we love once again Talks and MLB DFS today. So again a big. Thank you to Tom Vecchio Austin Swain Check out Tom on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom Austin Swain is at a swing three on Twitter. Thank you to them Thank you to everyone doing the draft stream for me to had a good time Happy to back you though to talk some more MLB DFS for you And well looks like a pretty fun slate for today because there are some good pictures on the bump And I'm excited to once again break it down with all of you welcome on into the solo shot That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm here to break down Thursday's six game and main slate with lock set for 645 p.m. Eastern for today. So it does include that Phillies versus Mets game at 645 do you tend to put things off things off like I do make sure you have your line ups entered by 645 p.m. Eastern to get them in before lock for today only one weather note for today That is in San Francisco shockingly pretty cold out there relative to the rest of the slate It is 53 degrees there versus at least 60 or higher Everywhere else. I assume the roof will be on it in T-Mobile Park today in Seattle So I should increase the temperature there at least a bitch from where it typically is so bump down bats for cardinals and Giants in San Francisco as a result of the cool temperatures We'll dive in and get you set for this late in just one second But first a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast Of course and the NHL now in the playoffs But we do have a lot of other good stuff here on the the daily fantasy podcast feed We have PGA is of course as always MLB UFC NASCAR those things chugging along here as always so Search for the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast hit subscribe if you like what you hear Leave us a rating and review as well Also coming up on Saturday is the Kentucky Derby the Derby is here And there has never been a better time to get in on the action because new players can bet risk-free Up to two hundred dollars on TVG that is right You can get up to two hundred dollars back in site credit on your first single horse win wager If your horse does not win plus TVG's money back special gives every customer up to ten dollars cash back on select races It's your horse finishes second or third You will also get access to free picks analysis and so much more win or get your money back for the Derby with TVG Sign up today at TVG.com slash cover or to bet risk-free up to two hundred dollars again the the page that TVG.com Slash cover Allah our betting podcast covering the spread TVG.com slash cover We'll have a full breakdown of the Kentucky Derby with Megan divide of TVG getting her thoughts on this year's Derby and some bets that She likes coming up later on today on the covering the spread podcast feed again The the entry of the site there TVG.com slash cover Let's dive into the pitching preview for this Thursday main slate Logan Webb typically my guy not as much today He is ten thousand three hundred dollars Shane McClanahan is ten one era Nola ninety nine hundred dollars Miles Nicholas is ninety six Tarek scuba is ninety four Hey, Sue's Lazardo is ninety one hundred dollars Then we have Robbie Ray and Nick Martinez as the others at eight thousand dollars or higher now looking at this slate I do feel compelled and very okay with ranking Shane McClanahan first for today And I think that the performances of McClanahan has put forth this year really forced me to do this He's been too good for me to deny so far and I am looking at a small sample with the clan of hand But I'm okay looking at these small and what he did previously and throwing fewer sliders If you look back at last year both those pitches the curveball and the slider had or the curveball and the The changeup had higher width rates for him than his slider the key point of his sliders to generate widths And it wasn't doing that as much as those two pitches were that's not typically how things work It likely means the clan hand slider is just okay, but you look at the curveball gets a healthy amount of ground balls that curveball I think it's just a good pitch with the changeup the velocity this year is down on that from where it was last year That's what was fastball velocities up a smidge. So the delta between his fastball velocity and his changeup velocity is Increased that's a very good thing. It's led to a 58% with rate on that pitch according to baseball's event It has been Disgusting and it makes sense given the gap between his fastball velocity and his changeup velocity It's led to some pretty absurd numbers from a clan of hand across his first five starts He has a 39% strikeout rate his flyball rate allowed is 26% and It's allowed him to get seven plus strikeouts in all five starts He had 11 last time out and that's despite not going super deep into games just yet I do think eventually we will see McLean hand get the leash taken off But his max pitch count so far is 90 which was where he was his last time out I've got him projected for 88 for tonight despite that You know middling projection He does still have the highest strikeout projection for me on this slate by a decent margin He's facing the Mariners here They're not a super high strikeout team, but they also don't hit for a ton of power So I think that McLean a hand is the top guy on the slate and I feel pretty good about that I feel comfortable putting him there and buying high off of the sweet start that he has had so Shay McLean a 10-1 to me deserves to be the top guy and I will rank him as such for today number two will be Aaron Nola who did just face the Mets his last time out and It's a bummer because we should downgrade him as a result of that familiarity. They have with him from this year Even downgrading Nola from there though I do still think he has to be number two for me behind McLean a hand similar to last year Nola's results like his er a type stuff. It's underwhelming He has a 3.90 er a this year and his velocity is down So you couple those two things together with the fact that he had Bad results last year. It could be a cause for concern But as is always the case of Nola his peripherals are sick He is a 2.21 skill interactive er a with a 32 percent strikeout rate and his ground ball rate Which had been down the past couple years is back up It's 56 percent this year versus 41 percent last year that all leads to an expected er a baseball savant of 2.29 so The results were annoying and they were annoying last year too But the strikeout upside is very good And I think the results for Nola should get better as the year goes along We've seen both those things the good peripherals and bad results against the Mets and his two starts against them this year He led three and runs in both those games. We don't want that but last week He did strike them out nine times that game is on the road. Nola does traditionally get a bump at home And he had nine strikeouts to start before that as well against different teeth I've got Nola projected for seven point three strikeouts for today That is second on the slate behind the clan a hand and the clan a hand and Nola the only two guys Would they strikeout projection higher than six point six? I think it means we have to put Nola second Even with his issues So I don't feel great about it. I have been burned by Nola plenty of times I did when I recommend him I use him So if it's not worked out for you hasn't worked out for me either But I do something the process there. So I will keep on using Nola for today. He is my number two pitcher behind Shane the clan a hand on this slate now as far as the value guys go guy goes I went into this assuming haste this Lazarda would be the value because he's facing the Padres It's a bad match up, but I'm fine with that if he is the value play. So I went into this thinking, okay I'll write up. I'll have talking with the clan a hand talk about Nola for the studs and then get Lazardo as a value play but he's 91 and I typically want to go below 9000 I could have been annoying but the saving grace is that Robbie ray is instead of value 8900 dollars and Ray's been pretty bad this year But I think that's a big enough discount where I will happily ride with him despite those issues and you know ray is here for a reason He has four point one five you are ray this year with just a 21% strikeout rate If you're getting Robbie ray minus the strikeouts, you're not getting Robbie ray but Ray has shown some signs of turning it around recently the velocity for him was super low Concerningly low to open the year but last time out his average fastball velocity was 93.8 miles per hour That is still lower than it was last year, but it is actually in line with 2020 and Within a mile per hour of where he was up point seven from the season-long average for this year He did still walk four guys, but it came with eight strikeouts his swinging striker is 12.6 percent So it wasn't a phenomenal start by any means But it wasn't improvement from where he was now we put ray back at home and have him face the rays ray versus rays Very confusing for me, but and they're a good team, but they will strike out a bit They have a 22% strikeout ray versus lefties down from where it was last year, but This is since the start of last year their current active roster since the start of last year So I am worried about ray the walks are still high the velocity is still low And he has had stretches similar to this in the past where things didn't always click for him But what ray has is a path to a ceiling which you don't typically find For $8,900 and I'm willing to take a shot on that for 89 here given that he is a value guy for this late So I would rank him below Nola because Nola has at least had the good strikeout number so far this year Whereas ray has not but I put him above Lazardo above Logan Webb bus mother guys So to me, I think it is McClanahan one Nola to ray three as far as the pitching options go for today Moving on to the stacks. We got the twins out in Baltimore for today And finally the weather on the east coast heating up temperature there at 68 degrees It's not a great park for hitting right now Given the the porch being moved back and left But I do still think the twins again Spencer Watkins are the top stack of the night Watkins results this year have been really good his ERA is 2.55 and He is getting more ground balls this year than needed last year I think he's doing that because he's leaning less on his fastball probably a good thing for him But the issue is that the peripherals for Watkins aren't as high on him as the results He has as many walks as strikeouts so far this year at 10.5 percent each He's still letting up a 39 percent heart rate and as expected the array is 4.61 So basically he's been able to work his way around calamity pretty often But probably not in a way that is sustainable going forward We didn't see Watkins let up a couple fingers to the angels back on April 23rd The Red Sox had a 47% heart rate against him last week So I do believe that Watkins is better than he was last year But I question if he's better enough where we should avoid stacking against him and I think that The his being better part should stick but I'm not sure if he'll be better enough where we should avoid stacking against him So I'm fine putting the twins at the top of my list here as a result of that for today the interesting thing here for the twins is We might not need the value because a lot of the top stacks for today are pretty low salary But I kind of want to take a look at Jose Miranda. He's been hitting in the middle of the order since he got called up He's bat batted sixth fifth and fifth across the three games and two of those were against writings and Miranda is a Good prospect hit the ball crazy. Well in triple a last year. He Got called up and the results in triple a this year were not blazing But he was still hitting for some power. He is minimum salary $2,000 So I would include Miranda and stacks especially it helps me get to more Byron bucks I don't think I'll need to use him because again a lot of the other stacks are pretty low salary for today Buckston's only 41 so I can get to him pretty easily But I do think that hosting the round up is worth your attention for minimum salary Especially you do need some extra flexibility for today now the second stack will discuss is in that same game and Not sure if I'd rank it second but figured we were here anyway And I think you should stop talk about the Orioles for today Basin Chris Archer and Archer is pretty similar to Spencer Watkins where he's had decent results in four starts But the peripherals are not good I think that means we can stack the Orioles here the big thing for Archer is all the fly balls He's led up a 51% fly ball rate this year It was 52% in a small sample last year and that can work for some guys especially this year where the balls aren't going as far but you really got a limit hard contact and limit balls and play for that to work and Archer does limit balls and play but it's mostly because his walk rate is 14% and his hard hit rates is 40% So basically what you're doing is when he does let up balls and play He's getting into super dangerous spots. It hasn't been in so far But it can it can bite pretty fast and Archer is doing this while not pitching super deep in the games He's going for so innings each time and I'd expect him to be around there again today Which means we do need to game plan around the twins bullpen, which is not bad They're not elite either though, and they're not one we need to avoid the Orioles are a big time a fly ball team They have a 40% fly ball right against lefties. That is the highest mark on the slate So again, we do want to downgrade this park due to the the pushback porch and left and fly balls may Not be as valuable this year with the bad balls But I do still think the long-term process play will be to target pitchers like Chris Archer Let up a lot of fly balls some hard contact that puts me on the O's here And I do want to give preference to lefties due to the porch and left and due to other stuff Of course as well, which means I'm okay bumping up Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander I am not entirely opposed to a root netto door either. He is at least getting some power against righties this year Got a 53% fly ball rate So I think I'd start with those three guys Odor Mullins Santander and then go with the righties after that. So Prioritize lefties here on this Orioles team take advantage of the fact that the right field did not could change too much and Go from there when it comes to that as far as the third stack go Jose or Keedy is facing the Tigers for today where Keedy has Struggled open this year. He has a five point nine five. He are Ray across four starts and part of that is the tough teams He has faced. It's been a tough schedule But I do think we can stack the Tigers here where he's past two starts have been against the Jays and he faced the Angels in his first hard, that's a pretty tough road to face but where Keedy is struggling to a point where I don't want to fully write off his issues as being a product of the tough Schedule he has faced. He has a 15% strikeout rates. His fly ball rate is 50% He's let up a 51% hard hit rates and it's led to a 7.21 expected era over a baseball So that's pretty bad. His skill interactive era is 4.5. Oh, so he should get better as a year goes along But those issues are legit and they are concerning So I don't want to write them off just because the the opponents he has faced has been tough The Tigers definitely are not a tough team. They actually have the second worst WRC plus on the slate Based on their current active roster since start of last year, they strike out plenty But they can still put the ball in the air They're playing in some of the best weather on the slate Depends on whether the roof is open or closed even if it's closed It's still be probably the the warmest game on the slate But if it's open boost them up even a bit more either way I do think we should be in on the Tigers here due to where Keedy's struggles He has had one thing to keep in mind here is that or Keedy has had pretty extreme reverse platoon splits since the start of last year Last year he led up a 455 slugging percentage to righties versus 339 to lefties And we've shown seen the same thing for Keedy in a small sample this year, too The Tigers do have some lefties and some switchers at the top But they do have good righties in their hobby or Bayez the big power guy He's a righty Spencer Torquilson gets bumped up against a lower strikeout guy It's been his key issue so far this year is a lot of strikeouts for Keedy not getting a lot of those right now Eric Haas if he plays he's $2,200 he's typically very good against righties So I wouldn't avoid the lefties But I would bump up the righties more than you typically would Because of where Keedy's reverse platoon splits. He has shown over the past couple of years Let's move now to things to watch and talk about Logan Webb because again, I'm typically a very Logan Webb type guy. I tend to love him. He is on the slate He's at home super cold park and he's the highest sour guy. Did you know I don't care about that too much I'll happily pay up if I think it's the right spot, but doesn't quite do it for me today He is not striking out a ton of people to open the year He's throwing a lot of change-ups and that doesn't seem to be a big whiff pitch for him Facing the Cardinals. They are a low strikeout team against righties So Webb does check a lot of my typical boxes and I usually do love him But not for today. So no looking web for me for today I'm probably back on eventually, but I want to see that strikeout rates climb back up first If you stack the three teams we discussed the twins the Orioles and the Tigers You're going to have an excess of salary to spend I would allocate that on the Phillies if you're looking for a place to splurge They're facing Taiwan Walker who is getting more ground balls in a small sample this year And that sample both is two starts that come against the Phillies That's why they weren't higher on this list The fact that he's done some interesting stuff against them to open the year But they've already seen them twice Walker has struggled with hard contact released it last year So the Phillies firmly on the menu and a team I would turn to if you have extra salary to spend Boxing obviously priority one, but then the Phillies would be number two in terms of if you can find studs I would go there Finally the Astros will likely get quite a bit of buzz for today They are decently heavy favorites against the Tigers, which means their implied total will be higher They're facing Terrik Schuble. He's played pretty well ever since he started throwing more sinkers and fewer four seamers Which is something he did I think over his final seven or so starts last year First 12 this year too and he's especially getting more ground balls So I understand liking the Astros. They're facing a lefty. They have a lot of righties in the lineup It's a warm park etc etc But I'm likely to be lower on them in the consensus here, especially if they do get buzzed up As a result of that high implied team total so the Astros an option for sure Not going to say no to them But I do want to be lower on them in the public because I believe what schuble has done so far Let's finish up here with the home run calls for today. It's my first day back I know he was out of the lineup yesterday, but like how can I not go byron buxton? I know again the porch is pushed back and left But he's facing spencer walk-ins low strikeout guy buxton has been fine when he's played post the Hit by pitch and the knee injury. So give me byron buxton is my boring home run call No other possible way I could have uh come back into Work for this week. The fun one will stick in that game and go to the Orioles here Anthony santan dare. I think he is fantastic. He puts the ball in the air a lot against righties Um, I think he's a very good player. He's played pretty well so far this year So the home run calls for today byron bucks in the boring one Anthony santan dare the fun one very on brand for me if you listen to this podcast for a couple of years That is all that we have here for today on the solo shot Good to be back in the saddle once again breaking down some nlb dfs for you and we back here every weekday As always monday through friday breaking down each day's mlb dfs late So make sure you are subscribed to the number five or daily fantasy podcast feed to get that podcast right as it is posted And also, uh, check us out if you leave if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well If you've got questions for me. I am on twitter at jim sanis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your mlb Dfs lineups will talk to you once again on friday to close out the week This has been the solo shot right here on the fan dual podcast network