 What is up navigation traders? Happy Friday today is Friday January 19th. Hope everybody had a good short week of trading Monday was a holiday. So we got started on Tuesday Before we jump into the alerts one quick announcement. You should have received an email regarding a Web class that we have next week With CML. So CML is the group that has created the options strategy back tester Ophir Gottlieb is the creator and he's going to be joining us on the web class. So super excited to have him involved and make sure that you reserve your spot our Our webinar platform holds about 200 people. I believe 200 or 250. It's already starting to fill up So make sure you lock down your seat here. Just go to navigation trading comm for slash CML dash registration So like I said, you should have received an email and with a link to go to this page in this web class We're going to be talking about when does momentum trading work when does technical trading work and when does Non-directional option trading really work, which is a lot of the core strategies that we use also earnings announcements are starting to be released by by the different companies so One of the biggest values of this strategy back tester is for earnings trades and we do pre earnings trades During the earnings announcement trades and post earning trades. So make sure you check that out It's an extremely valuable tool and again super excited to have Ophir Gottlieb joining us to host the host the web class So make sure you check that out if you're interested and and also even if you already use the CML trade machine that the strategy back tester Ophir is going to be talking about some of the new releases and Upcoming stuff that they've got going on. So pretty cool stuff a lot of exciting things happening there Let's jump into the alerts. So starting on Tuesday the 16th And by the way, I I'm gonna break each week up by just saying new week here Previously we had posted our weekly video updates that you're watching in the alert section But we've got a new spot for them in the weekly video updates. So hopefully that's a little bit easier to find I was having some members shoot us an email asking asking where that video was so First trade was in the QQQ So we had an iron condor on in the queues with this strong market going up Price breached our upside break even so we closed out the untested side So now we've got three call verticals in the queue. So if we go to The Analyze tab on the platform, you can see we've got we've got three different ones. We've got the 163 Let me just uncheck these we've got the 163 166 We've got the 164 167 and then we've got this one here Which I'm showing is a theoretical position Because I'm still migrating over all the alerts over to the new account But this is the position that we've got on here. So all three of these together I mean, they're they're fairly close in distance and we just we need some downside in the market I sound like a little bit of a broken record here because the market just continues to grind higher But it's not going to do that forever. So just be patient stay mechanical Keep short delta in your portfolio, which is what we're doing Next trade was in the ES So we actually had two two alerts back-to-back in the ES So the first was our long put vertical and this is one that we're holding for that short bias for that short directional Delta in our portfolio and we simply rolled this from January to February and we roll adjusted our strikes from the 26 80 26 40 up to the 28 30 27 90 and with with futures remember Toss does not allow you to do that role in one transaction with options on futures yet So we have to do that as two separate ones. So essentially we Sold our January and we bought in re-entered in February So that's why that sent out in in two separate alerts And then the next alert very similar the difference is this was a short call vertical instead of a long put vertical But we simply rolled this from January to February and adjusted our strikes to the 2800 28 30 So if we take a look on the platform what that looks like Here's the here's the here's the short call vertical So you can see prices is just within a range here still again Just need some downside movement to benefit that and then our long put vertical, which it looks very very similar Again, just looking for this some down movement to benefit that piece Next trade was an opening adjusting trade in XLV so we had on an iron condor we have on an iron condor in XLV and Price moved up breached through our break even and so we added another XLV iron condor and this one in the March cycle. So if we take a look at XLV What you'll see is so this is the this is the initially we initial one that we had on you can see price has breached our break Even and I had a couple questions from members about why didn't we remove the untested side? Why didn't we close the untested side when it breached the break even well? The reason is is if we uncheck the calls and we just look at the untested side, which is the puts What you'll see is there's still a little bit of premium left in those options So you can see the max max profit on that side 162 we're at about 135 now So if price does continue higher in early next week, then we will go ahead and close that out because it's basically worthless at that point But for now, we're just gonna keep it on and then we and then the alert I just mentioned the XLV iron condor that we just added right here not much movement yet So just waiting for some time to K and they did it to decay in those options Next trade was an opening trade in TLT and this was more of a directional play It did a couple things one I was looking for some downside movement in the price of TLT in the price of bonds Which we have gotten and then secondly it also gives us a bit of long delta in our portfolio So we always want to keep that short bias that short directional bias in our portfolio But we're getting we're getting a little bit off balance meaning we're getting a little bit too overweight to the short side So this helped give us a little bit of long delta Typically when bonds go down stocks go up. So this was short this was a bearish play a short bearish play in TLT But gave us long delta when we beta weight it to our spy portfolio. Hope that makes sense I've done some videos on beta weighting and and delta So I have to go check that out check those out in our blog if you haven't seen those but Look at TLT and you can see we've gotten we've gotten that down movement So we got in up here and the last couple days TLT has really gone down I want to I'm looking for a price down a little bit below 123 to get out that would book us a profit of about 50% of max profit, which is what I'm looking for So it gets more theta decay next week and if we get a little bit more down movement will book that profit in TLT Next trade was in DIA. So this was an opening adjusting trade. So we added an iron condor in DIA so if we take a look at our Graph here, so this is the one that we just added. This was the alert So we just added this iron condor you can see not much movement since then So still just waiting on that and then we've also got these two other positions on in DIA, which our From previous iron condors, which are those short call spreads that we've rolled a couple times So again, just waiting for a little bit of down movement in those before we close or roll those again and and with those those are in February So we've got a decent amount of time left and we've still got 28 days so a lot of time For something to happen in DIA Next trade was an opening trade in GLD. So IV percentile at the time got up to 56 So we entered a an iron condor in GLD We take a look here At the charts you can see we've already gotten a little bit of contraction in IV since we put that on but just need more time to pass and You can see we're still very very centered on that so not much has happened since we put that on in GLD So we'll wait and keep you posted on that one Next trade was a closing trade in Costco. So this is one that we put on a While back and this was actually a post earnings Short-put vertical that we put on in Costco. So after Costco announced earnings right here back on December 14th Stock price popped up and typically when that happens if it pops up above its expected move It's typically going to grind sideways to higher in this case It dropped on us and then came back a little bit. Anyway, we held on we held on and you know It got below that 185 or it was kind of finding support several times I was gonna cut it loose and cut our losses, but we did get a nice little pop up Nice little rally. We were able to book a profit of about 124 dollars on that trade. So that was a good hold Next trade was in SPX. Okay. So SPX was the one we had the calendar on so let me walk you through this From the beginning and make sure you understand this because I did get some questions on this and rightfully slow rightfully so because one of the Adjustment techniques that we used is not one that I taught in the course because we don't use it very often It happened to make sense in this case But we just we don't use it very often. So it wasn't even it's not even in the course. So let me walk you through what we did So SPX we put on a we put on an initial calendar, which was the Which was right here. So I put these have been taken off But I put them on as theoretical just so I could show you what we did So we initiated a 2705 put calendar back when price was trading down here around 2705 Okay, price came up breached our upside break even so we added a call calendar And so we had a double calendar on now price continued to move higher and we were running out of time so the first adjustment and the alert that I just showed was to Remove the 2705 so we simply closed that out. So I'm gonna uncheck that we close that out a Couple reasons one. We're running out of time and two I just I wanted to reduce risk on this on this trade So we took a loss on that 2705 and we we kept on the 2740 call calendar for a couple more days So price didn't give us our down move that we were looking for so the final adjustment that I made You know, so these are our near-term options were in on the January 19th expiration cycle, which is today they expire with the long dated options in January on the January 29th So what we did is because we have some, you know, we have some space in between there to buy ourselves a little bit more time We simply rolled that January 19 short call up to the January 24 So we essentially bought ourselves another week to potentially look for a little bit of down moving and by doing that We collected a credit. We reduced risk further in the trade and gave ourselves a little bit more time to be right So if if price moves down We'll take it off and try to get out for a scratch or maybe a small profit on the trade overall Or if it stays where it is or moves higher, you know, we're gonna we're just gonna cut our losses and and book a loss On this trade, so we'll see what happens next week But but if you are in this trade and you're looking at your analyze tab You might be a little bit confused because you're seeing the profits up $4,500 and and and it looks a little goofy But remember toss doesn't take into the account the other trades that we already took off So that's why it looks a little bit goofy And so you got to manually do your calculations to figure out your your total P&L Once you're once you're totally out of the trade So we'll make sure to do that but the bottom line is we're just we're looking for a little bit of a down movement in SPX to benefit that piece and we've got another week Well, let me verify that how many days do we have? We've got another I think yeah five days so early next week We'll be we'll be closing that out either for a loss or if we get a down movement for a winner Next trade was an opening trade in the euro four slash six E So I mentioned that is an alternate trade You can do a short strangle or iron condor in six E or the corresponding ETF, which is FX E So if we take a look the reason I did four slash six E is just because I like to trade the futures because you get such a good bang for the buck and if you look at this we've got You know total max profit on this of 925 and we're only using a little over a thousand dollars of buying power to put this trade on So the that's where I say that you know the leverage the bang for the buck with futures is just really good If you don't have permission to trade futures or you're in an IRA you could have put on a trade in FX E Speaking of permissions, you know, I know I know some of you have had issues with thinkorswim giving you permissions to trade futures or Tier two or tier three permissions and What I'm hearing from tasty works is that it they are people are getting approved much easier So if you're not married to thinkorswim And and you want to make sure you get the permission to trade those those strategies and those permission levels Tasty works is a good option as well And I'm gonna be doing so all of our training videos to this point have been on toss I am waiting for tasty works to come out with their their new analysis tab It's going to be kind of like this except from what I hear much better And once that's available I'm gonna be doing a ton of training videos on tasty works for every strategy that we trade How to roll how to adjust all the different things that I know you a lot of you guys have questions on I'm just waiting on them to to produce that To make that analysis tab available before I before I start recording those videos So stay tuned there Next IBM okay, so this was another one that I want to I want to talk about because this was this was interesting so IBM is a trade that we put on as a short straddle right after they announced earnings last time So we've been rolling and adjusting and making that the mechanical adjustments and now they came up and they had earned They announced earnings yesterday. So as a note I mentioned IBM announces earnings after the market closed today if you do not want to take the risk of holding through earnings Then you should exit the trade Based on the credit I received though I originally I'd planned to close this out for a small loser Before earnings because I wasn't sure if I wanted to take the risk of earnings myself with this trade But based on the credit that I got and kind of where the price was of IBM I thought you know, I mean they're due for a little bit of a pullback and And and with the credit that we received it just made sense. So I did hold it through earnings And so let's take a look and then so the alert was right before the earnings announcement We rolled our strangle and I rolled I rolled the 160 puts up to 165 To add a little bit more protection to if the price moved higher as well as collect some more credit And then we and then we moved that From January to February, okay So we the previous spread was in January So we just wanted to roll that out to February cut down our deltas cut down our risk a little bit right before the earnings announcement So what happened with earnings? Well, if you're in the trade, you probably know That IBM even though they came out with some some decent profits The stock dropped, okay, which is what we wanted it what we wanted it to do So we got a nice downside move in this in the price as well as the IV crush That's typical right after they announced earnings. And so here's where we stand now So you can see it shows that we're up a little over $500, but that's just on this piece here But what we've got to do is we've got to take into consideration, you know all the roles and adjustments that we've made So essentially what what's happened is we've collected now. I totaled it up We've we've collected a total credit of $15 and 91 cents Okay, so so that's the total credits that we've received. So we've added all those up now if we closed out the trade right now What that's going to equate to is we would be able to close it out for about Little under 18. So we're still we're still down overall on the trade about a hundred and $180, okay So what's so the decision now is we could go ahead and book this And I didn't book it because a I wanted to show you this on this on this video update But B, you know implied volatility is still pretty decent. I mean if we would have got a collapse Under 20, you know, so they're so that the implied volatility was extremely low I probably would just close this out and either take a small loss or we may have even gotten to be a winner If that was the case, but the fact is I'd be percentile still 63 I'd be ranked 44 so I'd be percentile still above 50 so I want to stay in this trade and so what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna hold this into next week and You know, hopefully get a little bit more theta decay if we get a little bit more downside movement That'll help us even even more and then what I'll do is I'll eventually roll this trade from February to March Okay, so so February's got 28 days March has 56 Which is again right in our wheelhouse if we were to enter a new trade So next week at some point probably towards the end of the week I'm gonna roll this from February out to March collect another credit Give us a little bit more time to make up make up some of that some of that money and hopefully close it out for Winner, so that's that's the process with IBM Next trade was that that's the spx one that I already went over those were sent out in a couple different alerts and Then next trade was in XLU. So we opened up an iron condor in XLU So if we take a look here, you know, XLU has just been on a utilities have been on a real slide and An implied volatility has has really spiked so Up near a hundred on the I think it was at 97 when we got into this trade So with this one, you know, it's only a $50 symbol. So so what we have to do is we have to We have to really tighten up our iron condor So this is almost like a butterfly, you know, a butterfly would have a Go all the way to the point at top So we it's a tiny bit wider than a butterfly But it's tighter than an iron condor and so when we when we manage these winners We're gonna book profits at kind of that 20 25 30% of max profit level not wait for the full 40 or 50% of max profit like We do on a typical wider iron condor last alert was today in soybeans where we bought back an iron condor Booked over 40% of max profit on that piece of the trade Working our way back nicely in soybeans. So we still have on in soybeans. We've got this Short-put vertical. So need a little bit of movement up Early next week, you know, these options have 35. Yeah 35 days left in March So we'll add another iron condor on in March early next week Hopefully we'll get a little bit of up movement in this February piece and close out of that early next week as well or sometime next week the So those are all of our alerts Let's go over some of the other positions that we haven't mentioned yet starting with natty gas So we've got this short call vertical, which was part of an iron condor needs some down movement there This piece has just seven days left. So we'll be taking that off next week And then we've also got a full iron condor on in that gas I'm showing this here as a theoretical position because it still hasn't moved over from the old account But we do have this position on up a little bit not enough to take off yet Let's see EWW. We've got a position on So EWW and FXI are pretty much in the same boat where Prices it breached through the short strike and breached through the breakeven So I've gotten a couple questions on this as to why have we not adjusted this yet And you know in the course I teach that if it breaches the upside Or the the short strike or the breakeven, you know, that's kind of the trigger to adjust and it is that that's the trigger That's when we start looking at making the adjustment But in this case, you know, if we look at just the untested side, which in this case are the puts Reset this so I can Uncheck these boxes So if we take a look at just the put side, you can see there's still some value in there There's still $40 worth of premium So we don't want to make an adjustment unless it's absolutely necessary and in this case I would prefer to wait and being in February. We've still got 28 days to expiration. Okay, so we still got a lot of time So in this case, you know, if price continues to move higher We will roll up the untested side and potentially put on, you know, another another piece to this trade with implied volatility Still is high But we will but we'll see what happens if it continues to move higher if it moves back down into our range We're not going to make any adjustments and we'll you know, hopefully book a profit on the on the trade as it is Same thing with FXI Where prices continue to move higher but implied volatility is up to so if we take a look at the put side here Still got a decent amount of premium in there So we don't we don't want to roll up those puts quite yet So we're gonna wait if price continues higher. We will roll up that untested side But we're just going to wait for now And then lastly XRT so we've got two different pieces to this trade We've got a we've got this strangle, which we have not adjusted yet price has just barely breached the The short call to the upside but again same thing still a decent amount of premium there And then we've got this other so we if it continues higher, we'll adjust that next week If not, we'll let it let it roll And then lastly, we've got a straddle which was originally a strangle. It's been adjusted in Same thing price has moved up through the break-even, but with implied volatility so high We haven't Needed to adjust that yet because there's still a decent amount of premium in those puts So we'll just continue to wait So that's it everyone. Hope you have a great weekend. Look forward to a great week of trading Hopefully we can get some volatility maybe a little two-sided action some down movement and Make this a little bit more interesting instead of just this one-way direction Have a good weekend. Talk to you soon