 Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to this CMC market's pre-FOMC meeting webinar. First, I think, first large-scale webinar of 2016 and also the first meeting, first Fed meeting of 2016 in the wake of the historic decision to raise interest rates from record lows in December from 0.25% to 0.5% more. They moved the Fed funds trading channel from 0 to 0.25 to 0.25 to 0.5 and now really the big question is not whether or not the Fed is going to raise rates, they're not going to do that despite what some people may have been speculating on. It's really about the tone of any Fed statement because since that meeting in December, financial markets volatility has pretty much traded off the charts. With that in mind, Colin and myself will be going through all the charts to look at some key trading levels, some key support and resistance levels. More importantly than that, we'll try to arrive at a conclusion as to the type of expectations the market are looking for with respect to the tone of the Fed statement. Before we do that, I have to put out a risk warning to all of you there. It's just basically a regulatory thing that we have to do at the beginning of every presentation. None of what you hear today should be taken as trading advice. It's not, we are not financial advisors nor do we claim to be but certainly what we can do is give you an indication of what markets may do in the event of any surprises or in the event that the Fed acts as a lot of people think that it will do. I published a note this morning as did Colin on what our expectations are with respect to the FOMC and today's meeting and they can be found on the news and analysis section of the CMC Markets website and they're available to view by everybody and everyone. With that out of the way, we can pretty much get started. Colin, where do you want to start? I think it's probably a good idea to look at what equity markets have done. Sure. Why don't we just start a little bit with what we are thinking about the Fed and after a year of debate between Michael and I, we've reached a point where we're actually pretty much bang on in agreement on what's going to happen with this meeting and us and pretty much everybody else in the street. Which is a little bit worrying. Which is that the Fed will not raise interest rates at this meeting. However, and I'll add to that, that the Fed is not going to cut interest rates at this meeting either. There have been some rumors circulating in North America that some people were dreaming and hoping that the Fed would turn around and cut rates again. I don't think they're going to do that. If they did that, they would shatter what's left of their credibility and they'd have people thinking, gee, if the Fed's hitting the panic button, then what's going on, what's wrong now and you probably see the markets go down way more than the tiny little liquidity impact you'd get from a rate cut. So that's out the window too. And I think what's most important now as we look forward and what people are really going to be trying to sort out is how many rate hikes this year and when. And what does the Fed hint at that in the statement? We've had FOMC governors and the party line has been four rate hikes this year. I don't believe it. I've been at three and my thinking has been March, June and maybe December. We'll see what happens after the election and so I've kind of, okay, fine, three. I know Michael has been at two and... No, I think one if you're lucky. Yeah, and some people... Oh, sorry, why don't you go ahead there, Michael? No, I was just going to say, I think one if you're lucky and I think the reason for that has been borne out by what we've seen since the beginning of the year really. I think most people know that the Fed has not only a labor market mandate but it also has an inflation mandate and the inflation mandate is missing it by a country mile. True. Look at inflation expectations and where they were a month ago and where they are now. They're actually lower than they were a month ago and in fact they're at levels that we last saw in 2009 when the Fed started its quantitative easing program. So the Fed would be tightening into a disinflationary environment and that for me suggests that there's more upside risks to the dollar if the Fed don't manage this process in a very, very delicate manner. And I think that's no more better borne out by what we've seen in commodity prices I think Colin, since the beginning of the month. You look at crude oil prices, I mean they're down 20, 25%. In the commodity space the dollar has basically steam-rollered everything in its path and I think in that context the Fed has to draw, I think the Fed has to be positive about the US economy in its statement but at the same time it has to acknowledge in the same way that it did in August, it has to acknowledge the volatility in financial markets that we've seen since the beginning of the month. And to that, so right now the street is pretty much figuring that if the Fed's going to hit this four rate hikes and that's every other meeting so you'd be looking at a rate hike in March as would be the first of the supposedly four we might get this year. And I think there's still a lot of expectations that's the case. So one thing we'll be watching for in the statement is is there any hint that they're not going to raise rates in March because that's two things. Either they might delay the next rate hike is one thing but on top of that if you delay past March it increases the likelihood that you're not going to get four rate hikes out of the Fed this year and probably you may not even get two. And so that's one of the other things I think you'll be watching. And it's interesting, Michael, you mentioned the commodities because the other thing I've been watching is the US dollar index and on the currency side the US dollar has leveled off which has had me thinking that the four rate hikes have already been priced in for this year. So that's another thing to watch for is if we get any kind of dovishness we'd probably help commodities will probably also help currencies because if you don't hit that four the US dollar has the potential for some weakening relative to everything else. There is one caveat that I would add to that Colin is that four rate hikes are not being reflected in the bond markets. They may be reflected in the currency markets but actually if you look at the two year, the five year and the ten year they're all yielding lower than they were when the Fed raised rates in December. That to me doesn't suggest that the bond markets are pricing in. Anything? Anything. So you've got this slight contradiction if you like between what the currency markets are telling you, what the bond markets are telling you and what the stock markets are telling you because if you actually look at the economic data that we're seeing it's not been that bad. You look at the US manufacturing PMIs, the ISMs, they've been diabolical and actually we'll get another steer on that later this week ladies and gents with the Chicago PMI which was 42.9 last month. I mean it just fell off the cliff in the December reading. It dropped from 1 over 50 to 42.9 with the ISM manufacturing next week with you for January as well and that was at 48.2 in December. So on the manufacturing side of things we can see the effect the low oil price is having. It's not being reflected in the labor market at the moment and I think for that the Fed is probably quite grateful but I think it also gives a slightly misleading effect as to what is actually the overall effects or the overall health of the US economy because even though US manufacturing makes up a very small part there will be ripple effects once these job losses in the oil and gas patch start to ripple out through the broader economy. And certainly looking at the S&P 500 here we can see that we're at a very, very key support level. We touched it last week around about the 1800 level and I think that for me is key in the context of what the Fed does or doesn't do later today. And for me it's all about the statement. There's no press conference and the market's going to take its cues from the tone of the statement and for me I think it could well be dollar negative. We're hoping that. Certainly in the context of what the oil price is doing there's been a heavy correlation between stock markets and the oil price and at the moment. More than usual it's pretty high. It is very, very high. I mean we can look at this DAX chart and it gives us a pretty much identical steer on what the S&P was doing. Again there's a massive big support level at the 200 day moving average but also on, let me get rid of that red line there but also on the lows around about 9,300 are these three level lows right here and the oscillator is starting to look a little overboard. So at the moment we're still, even though we're in bear market territory you can read all these headlines about bear market territory. Put these into context. We're still above some very key support levels on the DAX, the S&P 500 but also and this is a much more commodity based index November 2012 lows on the weekly chart on the FTSE. But also look at this candle here, this weekly candle. That signals a potential reversal and what we need to see is confirmation on a move back above 6,000. At the moment we haven't seen that yet but we're certainly looking fairly well supported and if you're looking for a proxy for commodity prices I did a video earlier this week and my colleague Jasper did a video at the end of last week on the interrelationship between oil prices and the Canadian dollar. Now Colin do you want to start the narrative on that? Certainly. So the Canadian dollar has been absolutely crushed in recent months. It was following the oil price lower but on top of that at the beginning of January we also had speculation that the Bank of Canada could cut interest rates again. So that caused a massive, massive washout in the Canadian dollar and this is dollar CAD. Actually Michael could you bring up the CAD US dollar? Is that possible? Well the other way around. Yeah the other way around. Because I wanted to make a point, a particular point about that one. And then we can go back to talk levels on dollar CAD. So CAD US dollar, CAD is an interesting one because both are actually active in terms of price levels because most people that trade use dollar CAD but Canadians domestically actually use CAD US dollar. So if you're watching the TV news at night they actually talk about CAD US dollar rather than dollar CAD. But if we look at it here it got absolutely smashed but the most important thing was it dipped under the 70 cent round number. It didn't stay there very long and then it started to come back up. Just like we saw with crude oil when going under 30 got down to about close to 25 didn't stay there very long, started to come back. So the Canadian dollar got massively oversold or we can go back to the other one now Michael. What I'm going to do is this. Put them both? We're just going to overlay both. Okay great. So then we had obviously it's slightly exacerbated because obviously Brent crude is the green line and the Canadian dollar is, you know, it gives you a general sense of the decline anyway. So massively overbought on dollar CAD massively oversold on CAD US dollar massively oversold on crude oil and not only in terms of the level but we actually got a double bottom in the RSI which is extremely rare and hugely oversold. So we were ready for a big snapback or in this case here this double top and Michael and I were commenting earlier that that looks like the two hums and all we need is the rest of it for the old vomiting camel pattern which actually is almost looking like it isn't it? And now if we go to the weekly chart I think it becomes more compelling here. If you use that now we call that in the trade but those of you who aren't experts in Japanese candlesticks we call that bearish engulfing week but it's also a key reversal week because we've made a lower low and a higher high and we didn't quite make a lower low but we certainly closed below the open of the previous week and we opened above the previous close. So the actual body of the candle engulfs the body of the previous candle has to happen at the end of a previous uptrend to be particularly valid and what I need to see for confirmation of that break is a break below this resistance level previous resistance level which is now support level at 13980. So 13980 we're quite a way away from that at the moment but certainly over the course of the next few weeks the oscillator is starting to look a little bit oversold and it's starting to turn over which means the momentum is starting to turn negative. On a break below 13980 then I think there's a good chance we can hit 135 very, very quickly. So certainly looking at that that does speak to a strengthened Canadian dollar. If that is the case then there's a significantly positive argument for arguing but oil prices can rebound but we can also look at this through the prism of the oil price in terms of Canada Cross. Can I mention one thing on that, Michael? In the last couple of days this week, earlier this week we started to see some more plunges in crude oil and they weren't being confirmed by the Canadian dollar. We were seeing that the Canadian dollar was holding even the oil was getting pounded down which also was a sign of bottoming and as Michael said that we can see CAD a leading indicator of a turnaround in WTI. So I thought the best way to try and confirm or validate my thought processes with respect to looking at a short term base in oil prices was to look at the Canadian dollar or the Norwegian Krona to see whether or not we've seen significant reversals against not only the US dollar but in this case for the Canada against the Yen because Japan is a net importer of crude oil whereas Canada is a net exporter. So if you're going to get a turn in oil prices then the likelihood is you're going to see the biggest reaction in the Canada Yen Cross because both of the economies basically support a weaker or lower oil price in equal measure. There's a counter narrative for both and if we look at the reversal here we've got a hammer on the downside which suggests that this move that we've seen since November has the potential to be running out of steam. The shorts are starting to take a little bit of profit and this very violent reaction that we saw at the back end of last week suggests the market's getting a little bit short. We roll it on a week into a weekly chart and it gives us an even more compelling argument. We do have a key reversal here. We also have a bullish engulfing and that suggests we could get a strong move higher. The Canadian dollar is going to find it very difficult to struggle it's going to find it very difficult to move higher if oil prices move lower unless the correlation is broken completely and certainly I see no evidence of that at the moment. So that leads me to believe that there must be we must be or there's a good probability that we're potentially near a base in oil prices. Now that's a very hard thing to call because oil prices have been trading in 7 or 8% ranges in a single day. So it's very, very difficult to pick the bottom or pick the top but you can certainly pick a direction. So let's look at the charts for Brent Crude and let's look at charts for WTI. Now we're looking at a daily chart here and this all feeds in to the narrative of the FOMC. A weaker dollar will be good for Canada and the Canadian dollar more broadly but it will also be good for commodity prices which have been absolutely pummeled in the past month or so. So any steps the Fed takes even by sleight of hand will be good for the Canadian dollar will be good for oil prices. So there should be a double updraft in the context of a rebound. Now here we've got a bullish engulfing day on the daily. So again we've got confirmation of a potential change in trend. What we don't want to see ladies and gentlemen now is that we look at the lows of the last four days and it's interesting that after we made the rebound at the end last week which we got in the wake of what Mr Draghi said on Thursday about further stimulus from the European Central Bank but I think also the fact that there's been all manner of speculation about what OPEC might do. I mean to be quite honest what OPEC does or doesn't do doesn't really interest me that much. Everyone knows they're pretty toothless. It's what the prices are telling me and for me I'm looking at the lows on this chart here and the low is around about $29.30 and it's $29.25.30 on there. So we know there's good buying interest between $29.25 and $29.30 on Brent. So for our move higher in oil prices to take place what I want to be able to see is for the market not to drop below these lows that we saw in the early part of this week and obviously on Friday. And it's a similar sort of story on WTI as well even though the supply and demand dynamics are slightly different. We do have crude inventory data later this afternoon and that's likely to show a build in the same way that the API data overnight showed a build. But again, here... Can I mention, Michael, it's actually, it's in 12 minutes. It's at the bottom of the hour. Is the crude oil inventory numbers. So if we're still on we may catch them. It's okay. We may catch them. In that case I might bring up the calendar to actually one might do that now. Let's see if they're on here. One thing I wanted to note on the Brent chart that Michael had you don't have to bring it back up while you're doing that is if you looked you had a very established downtrend and then you had a couple of doji candles where the high and the lows were very close and that was telling you that the bulls and the bears were just starting to get tired and then the bulls were picking up. You had one little throw over date and then you had that huge bullies and golfing pattern. A period of looking over about four or five candles showed the transition from the selling to the buying and it's a pretty nice piece forming there. So you had that big red candle, two doji's, one throw over and then you took off. And what we need to do is say we need to hold above those two support levels there at 2925 but if we also look at WTI it's not that dissimilar in terms of the overall thrust lower. We've seen a couple of very positive days. We saw a negative day. We need to get back above $31.55 on WTI. They're all there about on this chart. At the moment we're slapping in the middle between $28.45, $28.40 and $31.50 and push back towards around about $34 and the downtrend line that we've been in since October and this is really what we're talking about here. If we look at the percentage decline since say for example October, we're down 39%. So we've seen nearly a pretty substantial decline. So I would ask this question and it's a rhetorical question I don't expect an answer to it. How much of this is already in the price? Because we've seen a 70% decline in oil prices since the highs in 2014. We've seen a 50% decline in the highs since 2015. So it's no real surprise that Iran's being let back into the oil market was going to happen and yet we saw an additional decline on the back of that. And that was widely expected for years. It has. It's been widely expected and it was confirmed and we got a further click lower. So we're expecting crude inventories at the bottom of the hour in 10 minutes. There's expectation of 3.4 million barrels a build. Because our API was over 10 last night. It was crazy. It was. But then it was over 10 but we didn't get much of a dip. Which also was really interesting because there was every reason for oil to plunge last night and it didn't really. And it finished the day up. And it finished the day up. And we're higher now. I mean yes we came off the highs but it's sort of out of the tradition. It's definitely a sign that the sellers have washed out. They've had their selling climax. It's totally exhausted. And they don't have enough energy left to push the market lower even when they have every reason to do so. So that's actually a bullish sign for the oil market. And that's something we'll watch with the trading on this in about 8 minutes is how far can the bears push oil down if that's a big number. Yeah because it's likely to be a big build in which case we'll probably see a significant sell-off. So what I'll do is I'll actually bring up the Brent jar, put it on a 5 minute basis and then we can see how it goes. As you can see it's been a fairly tight range today. This is a 5 minute jar. Let's do it on a 2 minute jar and then just pop it away in the corner somewhere. So again we talk about correlations and we talk about interrelated markets. Obviously another good sign of a stronger Canadian dollar would be an uptick in the TSX. And the TSX is actually quite surprising and it actually looks a little bit like our Canada Yen chart which I showed you earlier. And again we had a nice little thrust lower but the market wasn't able to consolidate those moves to 680. We came back to about 700. We haven't filled this gap here from when we opened 2016. And generally what happens with gaps is they have a tendency to get filled. So that suggests to me that we could well get a retest some point of this gap here between 735 and the 7 and the lows that we saw here. We haven't been back to testing yet. The momentum does appear to be turning a little bit positive. We got higher here. We've come back and we've more or less filled that gap there just about to the top of that candle there but we haven't as yet filled the gap on this candle here. So again the picture is that the risk at the moment is probably less to the downside and more to the upside because everyone is talking the same way. Yeah, I think the bearish trades out here right now on everything are getting pretty crowded in terms of the negativity that we see. You and I are watching Twitter throughout the day and you were commenting on this earlier that Michael was still seeing people going negative on the oil price even though we've seen it selling climax. We've seen these turns. And that's often the case when you get into this kind of a market. We talk about markets climbing the wall of worry is that when you get a turnaround the consensus usually doesn't believe it for a while and that's pretty typical. Yeah, I mean they're calling up the wall of worry but this month they've been basically sliding down the slope of sorrow. So there's been an awful lot of people caught out by this and that makes me a little bit cautious. So we're going to basically as we roll into the inventories we've had a look at that. We'll just have a look at cable because cable's decline has been quite sharp over the course of the past few years. But again, this has got overdone to the downside and an awful lot of people have been talking the reason cable has been falling so sharply is because of Brexit concerns. I mean now that lie right now. I don't believe it. It's nonsense. It's completely utter nonsense because if that was the case it would be declining against the euro, it would be declining against every single other currency that it trades against and it's still at a very elevated level on its trade weighted index. The reason the pound is trading at multi-year lows against the dollar is simply because of spread interest rate differentials between the US two-year treasury and the UK two-year guild. It's at levels last seen in 2010 when cable was down at 142 and in 2009 when it was down at 135. So the spread differentials are in favor of the US dollar. Mark Carney has gone to great lengths to rule out any possibility of a rate rise this year or certainly in the near future and that's caused an awful lot of sterling longs to take their money off the table and put it in to the US dollar. There's nothing to do with Brexit at all. That's right because I think it's fair to say that a lot of people pounded sterling and held up pretty well over the last year because a lot of people were expecting that once the Fed started raising interest rates that Carney would not be too far behind. There is still a lot of speculation that even heading into the end of 2015 that the UK rate hike could be coming as soon as March and clearly Governor Carney has pushed that out. I think we'll pass the reference. The only impact that Brexit might have is only in terms of if Governor Carney has decided he's not going to raise rates before the vote which is expected in June, but that's the only impact at all. Maybe we'll get a rate hike at the end of the year but I'm not even sure about that. No, I'm not sure about that either. To be quite honest, it's too early to start taking money off the table as a result of Brexit. This is going to be like the Scottish referendum. People aren't going to worry about it until about a week before. Agreed. We're getting a little bit of a sell-off in cable right now. It's coming down to around about 142, 142.30. It really needs to stay above the lows that we saw yesterday. I'm being asked about Eurodollar and how that looks. I'm going to come on to that in a minute. But ultimately, I think the bias in Eurodollar, despite what an awful lot of people are saying, is pretty like the same bias that I have with respect to the cable. If the FOMC is dovish, then I think we'll see cable move higher. I think we'll see Eurodollar move higher. The last thing the Fed wants is a Eurodollar back at 104 or anywhere near parity. Agreed. That suggests to me that the bias, the Eurodollar, is not lower despite what everyone else is saying. All these investment banks are talking at lower. I think the bias is probably more towards 110 to 112 than it is to parity at this moment in time. Keegan, I... Go ahead. I'll talk to Eurodollar when you're in. Are you going to talk about Eurodollar? I'm going to talk a little bit about Eurodollar and just to note, so Eurodollar got really crushed. It got knocked down around 105 and it blasted off of that on the December meeting. But if you look, since then, that's a really nice base-building channel there that's very strong. Stochastic's RS7 pointing sideways momentum, but it's about 108, maybe a snig lower up to 110. Very, very solid trading channel. Plus, as you're seeing there, the snig was just drawn in higher lows and lower highs, that's a symmetrical triangle. That's a consolidation pattern, not a reversal pattern. So everything to this is pointing towards, we had a big rally, we're digesting it, and we're getting ready for the next leg. And the next leg will be triggered by a breakout over 110, and that would measure you up to 112. And along the way, because I've seen that 111-11, even number, round number, whatever you want to call it, an interesting one that's acted as support and resistance in the past last year as well. So keep an eye on that, but the measured move would be about 112-112-10 on a breakout there. But overall, that's a very, very strong basing pattern. That's the beginning of what I call a staircase. You had a spike up. You're consolidating at a higher level and when you break, you'll probably get another spike. And that's really my bias as well. I just can't buy into the narratives of the Euro. No matter how much the ECB wanted to go lower, ultimately they're going to run into a Federal Reserve that really doesn't want it to go below parity. Now, I could well be wrong about that, but let's look at Eurodollar in a broader context. Let's look at it from the lows that we saw, the all-time lows that we saw back in 2000. We've got a nice trend line support coming in right at 106 from those lows. So for me, Eurodollar needs to break below 106 if we're going to see parity in that trend line support from the lows that we saw all the way back in 2002. So that's that line here, which is coming in along the bottom, this purple line here. If you want to see what my analysis looks like, it's in the chart forum, which is displayed on the right of any chart if there's any analysis there, or you can basically view it on the chart forum in the market polls section of the platform. So if you click on market polls, you can see the various bits of analysis that me and my colleague Jasper do. Occasionally Colin does some on the CFD platform with respect to one of the key levels on any particular given asset. Just being asked about the Germany 30, I'm quite happy to go over that with you. Yes, 8.3 versus 4.0 billion barrels. So it's higher, but not as high as the API was. And gasoline is 3.4 up versus 0.95 for the street, so that was a pretty big gasoline build as well. So we have spiked higher, but it's not really had a significant effect. It's back again. We've had a little bit of volatility on the spiked higher on a two-minute chart, but it's... Here's another example of where there's every reason to pound it under 30, and they're not, and it's not going anymore. In fact, actually, looking at it now, it's actually moving higher. Look at it. There it goes. So it's a disappointing number, but yet actually it's someone to go down. Right, so Germany 30. We talked about it a little bit earlier. I'm looking at a weekly candle here, guys, and the thing that strikes me about this is that we've tried to go lower on this weekly candle, and it's now Wednesday. We're still well off the lows. We had a very strongly positive candle last week with a very long tail. We finished pretty much near the highs of the week. We're pretty much where we were at the end of last week. We changed it to a daily. We are starting to ratchet back from those lows that we talked about earlier, around about 9,300, which is a very, very key support level. We've got the 200-week moving average below that. So we are trending lower, but ultimately I'd still expect to see the DAX, along with the FTSE 100 and the S&P, to find a fairly moderate bullish bias while above the key support levels that I identified earlier in this particular webinar. So I've seen no reason to throw in the towel on equity markets. For a very simple reason, the ECB is likely to remain fairly easy in the loosest sense of the word, no pun intended, but I don't think the Fed are going to want to put any more fuel on a volatility fire of their own making. And I think an awful lot of this volatility that we're seeing has been as a result of the Fed's current policy of looking to tighten monetary policy. It's pushing the dollar higher. It's creating a deflationary environment for the global economy. And the fact of the matter is, it's coinciding with a supply gut for broader commodities, not just crude oil and gasoline, but also agricultural commodities. And I think that's fueling concerns about a Japan-type scenario, which could actually be particularly difficult for the Fed at a time when they want to really normalize monetary policy. Yes, and that's probably another reason why they'll be a little bit supportive without trying to make it look like they're panicking, because when I've done the work in the past, it's not uncommon for the stock market to go down after the Fed starts raising rates for the first time because people get used to that. They've really done it now and they adjust the portfolios and getting used to the lower liquidity. And that often goes for a couple of months, and then we've seen that eventually the positive economy that's underlying the rate hikes kicks in and the stock market send up higher in three, six, nine months out from the first rate hike. So we've certainly seen that this, however, January, this particular downdraft was worse than usual. We had down to the lows from the beginning of January. We were down nine close to 10%. The worst ones previous to this were declines of about five to six percent. So we definitely had had a bigger downdraft after the first rate hike than we do normally, which is a reason for the Fed to tread more lightly this time around it. And the other thing that was going on, I know was at the beginning, we actually had three things going on at the beginning of January. Crude oil was plunging, China was crashing, and the third thing was that the Fed members were all going around talking about four rate hikes this year. As we've seen, saw them back off from that towards the middle of the month, the market started to stabilize a little bit. So another reason for them to, as they say, tread lightly, they don't want to go too dovish because then that creates a whole other problem. But I don't think they'll be quite as hawkish as they were earlier this month either. There's also another element of the story in the commodity currencies is the Aussie dollar. If we look at this here, we've seen a bit of a rebound there as well. If we look at the weekly chart, we've also got a little bit of a bullish and golfing week there at the end of a very long-term downtrend from the highs in 2013. The only thing about this particular bullish and golfing week is it's not particularly strong in the context of what's happened here, but I think this is one of those capitulation sell-offs here that's taken out all the long positions because we were building up a base, and now potentially what we need to see is a breakthrough of 70.5 for a move higher back towards the mid-70s. But I'm slightly more cautious about that particular trade. I think the Canada is probably the more obvious one simply because it's come an awful lot further and it's come from a long way back. If you look at the Canadian dollar and where it was in 2014, it's 30% lower against the US dollar. That's a huge amount for a currency that's basically trading next door to its bigger neighbor. I can't imagine the last time that happened. This has been quite a while, coincided with one of the last oil crashes in the late 90s, I think, was for our early 2000s, was the last one at the bottom of the bear market. Okay, ladies and gents. Colin and I are going to wind this up. There's one more thing, Michael. Go on then. I wanted to do gold. Of course, yeah. What was sending me? What was I thinking? Then that'll be the last one. I did want to talk a little bit about gold here. Gold is important with the Fed and probably can be active around the Fed meeting as well. And the US dollar, there's two things that drive gold. One is it trades off as it to the US dollar. The US dollar is the world's premier paper currency. Gold is the world's premier hard currency. And the other piece of this, though, is that, of course, gold also trades as a defensive play when you get fear and volatility, and the VIX goes up, gold usually goes up, too. So gold's been crushed for a long time. That big massive rally in the US dollar took gold down as well. But look at this. Since November, you've got a cup with handle pad, and you had a saucer bottom, a larger one, followed by a smaller one with a higher low, so it does look like a teacup with a handle, and now it's broken out of that base. What's most significant is that the breakout, which was the other day, that green candle there, actually happened on a day when the stock market was up. Earlier this month, the talk was, well, gold's going up because stocks are going down and volatility's up. But on a day when gold should have gone down, it broke out of the base. And the reason for that is because it's telling me that gold is also acting off of the fact that the US dollar's likely peaked and getting ready to roll down, and you're seeing the lead for that in the gold price breaking out. And that's telling me that we're likely to see the Fed back, probably, if not outright, back away from the four rate hikes to at least start to go a little more neutral to dovish. And if that happens, as I said, you probably see previously that the US dollar will probably peak and start to roll over, and it hasn't even been able to get back above 100 since the last Fed meeting. It's likely looking lower, and gold looks like it can start to turn around and trend higher. So this was yesterday's breakout on gold, technical breakout, a breakout when it should have gone down. It was a lot of reasons to say that this is signaling that you've got an uptrend starting in gold, and you're getting the momentum support in the stochastics in the RSI as well. Okay. Thanks, Colin. So basically to conclude, what we're expecting from tonight's FOMC is it for to be slightly in the dovish side. I think it would be a significant surprise if it's not, and ultimately we expect to see some further dollar weakness. Anything else you want to add, Colin? No, that's covered it. It looks like, I think, yeah, basically, yeah, I think you'll see a neutral to slightly dovish Fed this time around, and yes, and the big reactions you'll probably see in the gold price and in the currency markets. Okay. Brilliant. All right, Colin. Well, thank you for your time. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your time as well. And for those of you who want to listen to this back, it will be up on YouTube within the next 12 to 24 hours. In the meantime, thank you very much for tuning in, and we'll see you all again soon. Have a great day trading, everybody.