 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Power Trading Hour with your host, David White. Call now, toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now, David White. As we return to another excellent edition of the Power Trading Hour, the S&P is up 40, NASDAQ's up 268, NASDAQ, I mean the Dow's up 47. And of course, it doesn't matter where you're at in the world as long as you're here at the appointed time. The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. And what do we have going on today? Well, we are up a little bit on the S&P. We haven't gotten it all back. Is this just a bounce in a downtrend? I think so. The problem with short, being short, is that you have to sit through a bunch of days like this. As I said before, it's kind of a, you know, you get three steps back all one day and then you get a couple of steps higher and then three steps down. And that's kind of the bear market out there. It's not always going down and it gets a little bit better. Everybody, hope springs a turtle and then guess what? You get clubbed again. But I don't think we're done with with the weak earnings cycle or at least the response to it. I think that goes on next week. I was looking for kind of the weak part of the market to come on. And of course, we had a couple of big bounces, probably because everybody got bearish before they came out with earnings. I don't think they would have moved as much. But of course, everybody got snapped thinking that if the fascist book got a little bit of a cold, in fact, they kind of had a bowl of the other yesterday, but if they were that bad off then snap would have to be even worse. And of course, once everybody decides that they want to get on one side, Mr. Market is more than willing to take them to the cleaner. So continue to watch when everybody decides that the market is problematic. But I look for abject depression to say that you should get out of a bear market. I think first time I really thought about it a lot was Jesse Livermore's book, Reminiscence of a Stock Operator. In that book, he says if a sudden, what is it, sudden depression, sudden, I think that's what it is, sudden depression goes around the entire street, then it's time to start looking at covering. I don't see that as anything. Everybody was still talking about buying stuff. They were a little bit more nervous this morning, but I didn't see the CNBC throwing the kitchen sink in on the end of the world. But can we kind of meander around here? Yeah, but I think we're gonna continue to see these occasional, maybe once a week, maybe once every two week, big moves lower. And it's gonna be a real challenge to stay short, but over a number of days, probably the trend is lower. You can call me today at 877-927-6648. You can always email me at path at tfnn.com and some have already. And anything else out here? I think that's about it. Eddie wants to know where Apple's going to peg today. I do not know. I've been working on something else and I haven't run the numbers. But let's take a quick look at it and see if there's anything there. To do 173.75. Just take a quick look at the options. APL for today. See if there's anything. By now, you probably should have a fairly good analysis of historical data profile options. Okay. Spirey for today. So you've got 40,000 options right now in the 175s. You got 13,000 on the 172.50s. Generally the lockup is on the 172.50s. So, yeah. You've got a lot of, a lot just higher. 127,000 at 170, yeah, yeah. Is that right? Yeah. 127,000 at 220, yeah, 17, yeah. Is that right? Yeah. Open, oh, is that different? That can't be right. Maybe they got these columns back. Open interest, I show is 13,000. I show volume is 127,000. Those have got to be backwards. So we shall see, but to me, the action all looks around that 172.50. Trying to get rid of that. 175, those look like they're probably already baked. 170s, got about 14,800. So don't know, but I can't believe that volume is right. It's 127,000, maybe it is. I didn't see what it was doing earlier in the day. But maybe you can email me. I just don't have that up in front of me, but if you just look at the options numbers right now, where's the biggest volume? And that's at the 172.50s. And that's just gonna tell you probably what they're going after today, to more likely 172.50. Although our last on Apple is, what is that, 172.50? Yeah, 172.50. Now, generally all they need to do is get within a quarter of that. So you'd say 172.75. Generally on that, it's about a quarter, maybe 30 cents, is close enough to get the action they need. We're gonna go to Al and Winter Park. How you doing? Are you there? Yeah, I'm here. Okay. What do you want to talk about? I've been looking at ANY, Annie, for the last few months and I don't have a clue of what this technology is about, but I do like what they're saying about how they're progressing and huge projections and the stock looks good right now to me. Okay. You had a big Gartley pattern develop. I don't like this big long leg off to the right. You've got a bounce and it ends volume today. Can you hang on? Yeah, yeah. Okay, Paula will review this. I don't understand it, but maybe I will buy the, I'm great though, we'll be back. Are you grinding in the market, but seeing little to no return or are you a successful trader simply looking to make your job a little easier? Learn to take the path of least resistance with David White's powerful trading newsletter. David White is an accomplished trader whose deep understanding of technology and the markets allows him to consistently find and share winning trades. Support and resistance define the ranges in which stocks trade. 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For free, each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN. Educating investors. All now, toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618. We return, hopefully we still have Al on, winner part. Yep, yep. Are you into big into Bitcoin? No, I don't, I don't trade, I traded it a couple of years ago, I made some money but I haven't touched it. Okay, you understand this as a bit, you understand this as a company that makes Bitcoin mining hardware, right? Yeah, that's all I know. Yeah. Okay. Yeah, why you've got a little bit of surge out here in the Bitcoin miners and it's up strong today. I don't see a lot of reasons to be in Bitcoin here. I mean, you've got a little bit of a bounce. Also don't like that they're a Canadian company. The biggest problem is not the cost of this mining equipment. It is the electricity to run it. And there's a lot better, mostly better hardware close and made closer and shipped closer to where the electricity is the cheapest in the Nordic countries. So not a big fan of that. You should look for a big discount on any Canadian companies. I don't know if you listen to me and talk about the connect discount. If you really have somebody that's smart, they're gonna come to the United States or get hired away and get a lot more money. So as soon as the company starts to get hot, all the employees get poached and it's always a problem with Canadian companies, especially with the taxes and the way they've got everything set up, everybody wants to come to the United States, make a lot more money. So I don't know about this. I certainly, if I was gonna get involved with this, I'd go to places where the electricity is absolutely the cheapest. And I thought these guys were in Toronto. Not very cheap electricity there, I can tell you that. I had an office in Markham. Yeah, I thought I heard you say that's why I called, yeah. Yeah, I'm not a big fan. They're really getting fairly repressive with their government too. So, I don't know if there's a whole lot of reasons to be in the Canadian company right now until maybe they decide that they like business more than they say they do right now. You know, can you get a dead cat bounce? You can, let's take a look at it here. I mean, you've retraced from the last tie out here, which is just under four bucks, what is that tie a day there? 378, you retraced 62%. So you're probably gonna run, you got some nice volume today, but you're just back at resistance, which is at three bucks. So let's take a look at this as just a straight retracement here. Let's get out a little bit. You know, if Bitcoin continues to do well, I'm not exactly sure it will. But just on a chart reading basis, you've got confluence at, what is that? $5.63 to 602, which is kind of fairly wide, but that's where that gap is from the 16th of November. That came down on almost 15 million shares. You're up today on 51 million shares. So it's nice, it is a sign of strength. You need the same to close over. What is that? Really over $3.78. So you're still 78 cents from that. But that would confirm the bottom. So you've got to give up a lot on this one to begin. Are you long already? No, no, I'm just thinking about buying it. Like today or Monday? Yeah. I mean, the time to buy it would have been on the gap up this morning. So that would have probably been the only time that I would have seen any kind of risk reward. And still at that point, it would be a gamble. You know, if everybody's all hot for Bitcoin going higher, I'm not exactly sure they are. It does have a nice bounce today. But, you know, you've got, you know, if I just looked at it as a chart, didn't know it was Bitcoin, that confluence level at about 563 would be my target. But that may take a couple of months to get there. Yeah, okay. Okay, well, yeah, I'm not looking for a long hold, just short. Yeah, well, that would probably be the play for me to get the risk reward right. You'd probably want to be in it so that it did go to 563. Right? So you've got a fairly decent amount of risk here. Although you got a good day, huh? Sure. But, you know, I was trying to connect that the Bitcoin, Bitcoin's been beating up so bad, I suspect the countertrend rally and I was... You know what Jesse Livermore, you know what Jesse Livermore said, rings true to me. Yeah. Stock's never too high to buy or too low to sell. It can always go lower, it can always go higher. So, but no, not a bad one. You would expect this to more than likely, if it's not just a couple of day wonder, you would expect it maybe to come back down to the low a day. So, let's say 275. If you could get into that area, that's probably where I, you know, look at buying it and it would have to hold the low of the day today, which is, what, 250. Okay. No, that sounds reasonable. I've been looking at the chart for many, many days. So, yeah. Do you have any fundamental reasons why Bitcoin would go higher? And this is not a... There are no fundamental reasons with Bitcoin. It's all auction. It's all based on, you know, exuberance of, you know, millions of people who don't understand trading. But that's okay. You know, Bitcoin probably will bounce one more time before it falls apart. So... Okay. So, that's the way I feel. On a chart basis, I was probably a little bit more bearish when I started than I am now. But, you know, risk reward at 275 looks good. Could you get that on Monday? Yeah. That'd probably be where things would line up. And then, of course, any close below 250 would be, would say that it's going to consolidate out. Okay. No, I like that. Yeah, I'm going to go with that. I appreciate it. I really do. Okay. Thank you so much. Bye. Yeah, I'm not a big Bitcoin fan, just assuming that it will one day be exactly like the tulips and be worthless in a couple of days. Yeah, you know, and, you know, JP Morgan's coming out with their own banking Bitcoin, and that's going to stay stable and never move in price and be used for trading. The other banks will probably jump on. So, it'll kill every other Bitcoin out there. Yeah. Okay. Thank you. So when you, so when you can, not when you have to be back in a minute. Having fun trading the markets, but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with? Become an Apex Predator in the trading markets and join the Tiger's Den Trading Room only at tfnn.com. 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Oh, let's do a little history real quick while we're waiting for our caller. And it's all just a little bit of history repeated. On this day in 2004, Mark Zuckerberg launches The Facebook, which of course later became the Facebook and Metamucil and the world changes forever. And in my opinion, the first five or six years kind of interesting. Then the descent into evil. And yeah, kind of the algorithm finally was developed to generate narcissists and a lot of other stuff. But yeah, always the issues with a false outrage. We're going to go to John in Philadelphia. How are you doing, John? Hello, David. Thanks for taking the call. Glad to have you. I hope and look see into home-building equities. Probably most simply by looking at two ETFs that contain those, ticker symbol on those are ITB and XHB. And those price patterns, I'm going, I'm looking at like the weekly chart going back 18 months, the weekly chart on both of those and the weekly charts for the big home builders that are listed in David using interest rates and possibly a slowing economy and a more top way back. Oh gosh, what was it, May? Yeah, it was May 10th. And now this decline in team area making lows repeatedly that I can envision because I can buy it here with starter. I take a loss and that loss is small and maybe I catch a good rally. So that's the background. What do you think? Well, you certainly had, if you're watching on Tiger TV or in the den, one of the things I dislike and kind of my theory is that if you come down on more energy that you went up on, that one or two things, you're going lower or you're going to consolidate for a while before you put in a low. So either one of them means that they are probably not worth trying to buy the low on. Now on this one, you have a higher volume low at 65.81, then you did it the last one that was 3.7 million shares back on October 6th. On my power law vector indicator number, you get 4.3 on the way up off that October 6th low. For the low on January 28th after it came down, you had a 5.6. So you had about 22, 23% more energy on the way down than you had on the way up. You had a high 3 million shares on December 13th. You retested that with 2 million shares. You didn't quite go above it, but it was close enough to be 30% or actually 33% light, right? So everything on this chart says bearish. Not anything really says bullish. The one thing that you can get in housing and previous housing patterns is that when interest rates go up, a lot of the people, you know, the first tick or something, they'll say, hey, I need to get in before it's all over. So you get kind of a little bounce right before the whole thing goes to hell. And you may have already gotten that up to 70.07. I would say more than looking at this. I mean, there's such a high correlation that you want to look at the TLT. If you, for those listeners not paying attention today or just wandering in on the bond market, we had a three-year high in the 10-year today or a four-year back to 2019. That's three years. So a whole lot there. I got somebody... I actually have somebody wanting to buy puts in them that just emailed me. You know, I'm thinking that the TLT breaks through next week. Maybe we gap down on Monday. So I certainly don't think that today is any time to go after it. I would say that the lows will probably come in as we challenged either 134.78 or 131.95, the two previous lows in the TLT. Now, that may be muted as the Fed is not quite done buying bonds, but they're almost there, right? And of course, we had the ECB yesterday saying that they won't buy any bonds after, I think, the first week in March. So, you know, they say that markets are a discounting mechanism for the future. I don't see a whole lot out here, other than maybe a little lighter volume today. Could you get a bounce on Monday in the TLT? Maybe, but I think everybody's running for the exits. David, thank you much for going through all of that on the ITB, the ETF for Home Builders. And as I listened to you, just an assessment of TLT and interest rates. The bottom interest contract with its price action, the current price, that fits with what you were saying on the TLT. Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa and Clearwater markets? Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area. Whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value, or you're in the market for a second home or investment property, Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay Area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels. From the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up and coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating, Tiger Real Estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market. Before you make one of the biggest decisions of your financial future, call Tiger Real Estate LLC today at 727-329-8322 or email us at tiger at TFNN.com. That's 727-329-8322. Call us today. The technology around us is changing every day. With so much happening, it can seem impossible to keep up with all the information. 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And there's no way those numbers were right. I'm going to say that someone went to whoever at the Bureau of Labor Statistics went to the Madoff School of Accounting on that, because you can't be that far off unless you deliberately want it to be. And my guess is the word came down is we don't want anything that looks good because we don't want the Fed to raise rates. So, well, Jim, now of course they've already said what they were going to say and so we better fix all this before it looks too bad. But I don't think you can be 300,000 off on a jobs number. I don't know how you would. I tell you what, if I was off that far I would feel so ashamed I'd have to quit. I don't think that you can phony the number that much and not have any shame. So that's my belief on it. But kind of like I did kind of look through it and they're basically saying that they were six standard deviations off. And I don't know how you get six standard deviations off. They never have been. So that's it. Yes, the Madoff School of Accounting had 20 years of exemplary service in one bad day. And that was it. But I remember the guy that talked about that. He said, yeah, having his record was the same thing as batting 958 in pro baseball every year for 10 years. It just doesn't happen. But no, I'm not thinking that we're going to continue to have a lot of this stuff. It becomes incredibly hard to remain short in a market. Where you always think that maybe it's going to come back. Maybe it's come back. And we talked about this last week. And that is that you've got kind of a rule of alternation. And that is if you get a sharp move up, that's really linear three, four, five days. And then you get these really jagged moves on the opposite side of that. Same thing on the way down. If you have a straight down move, then it's very jumpy, huge moves, makes it almost impossible to stay long. And then you get back in there and you get a big sharp move down for several days that just doesn't quit. And you think the end is there, then it hits a bottom. And then you get these things that you can't hold on the upside because they're all over the place. And that's kind of, I think it was a prector thing where he called it the rule of alternation, making it just miserably hard. But generally if you go down kind of linearly, you can draw a line and a lot of differences. Then the next one is incredibly jagged on the way up. But yeah, that's it. Our new sponsor, the Madoff School of Accounting. Dewey Cheetam and Al, attorneys. Okay, anything else going on out here? Probably the big thing is, you know, Friday you're going to have light volume already. We're doing about 7.4 billion shares. So it's not like a lot of volume came in, either at the bottom or the top, but I'm not a big fan. As I said, I'm just waiting for that other shoe to drop. Somebody in the den just brought this up. So I did look at it and that is our investments. They got a little bit of a bounce coming up out of here. But probably a good chance you're going to retest that 64. 35 sooner rather than later. On the TLT, what I'm looking for, like I said, I think we're going to get a big gap down. You really have a gap right here at about 148 to 146-ish. You have a gap on the way back up that was fairly large from about 140 to 142. That came back down. My guess is you're going to get one or two more big gaps down in this to get back into that low. 129.60 is the March 18th low of 2021. You all have 132.46 is the May 12th low. Now remember already on the 10-year, we made a high that's the highest since early in 2019. So this, I think of anything that TLT is behind the curve. And of course, the TLT pushing that flattening curve. So we're going to continue to look at this. And of course, this is the not the tail. This is the dog. The equity markets are the tail. And the bond market is at least 10 times even now bigger than what the actual equity market is in dollars. So when you see a little move in the TLT of a dollar, just figure you had a $5, a 4% move in the S&P. Because that's about historically what it's worth. They are moving much faster than that these days. My guess is this thing is just going to melt. You're going to have some big gaps down. And eventually you'll get settled in for some kind of low based on whatever the Fed decides is the time to quit raising interest rates. And again, this is going to be a tail of two cities this year. They're going to be stocks that do very well. Those stocks that don't care what the interest rates are. And its customers don't care a lot about what the interest rates are. So companies like Apple, are they affected a great deal? No, they've got lots of cash. And their customers are buying something that's $1,500 maybe at the top end. So are they really worried about a little higher interest rate? Probably not. So not so bad. But if you're talking about somebody buying a $1.5 million dump truck from John Deere, or actually the other one, Cat, Caterpillar. Or if you're talking about somebody buying a million and a half dollar implement for their farm, now they're paying, you know, two, three, $400 more a month for that bigger thing. You know, anytime you start talking steel, something heavy, something that you can't move without a crane, they do not like or tend to like higher interest rates. Question, if anything's going to happen with this bill making its way in Congress to encourage more people to, or more companies to build ships here in the United States, there's a reason why everybody left the United States. And that was the EPA literally chased them out. Intel kept some contracts because they were making stuff for the military. But there's a reason why everybody else left. Pretty much everybody else left. Question is, are they going to ease up on these folks, or are they going to step on their throat and hold the foot down again? There's always regulatory issues in anything. And my guess is that why we may have more people moving out of Taiwan, probably not going to move to the United States. They may move to Mexico or somebody where they're not always worried about that. Closer to home, maybe Canada. But again, those guys are pretty much on the leading edge, the tip of the spear for EPA. But you need lots of water. You need lots of culture here of water. And you also have to have somebody that didn't chase you around because you use a lot of rare earth minerals and other toxic stuff to go along with it. So if they're always chasing you around, you find an easier place to go. 877-927-6648 Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis. And it's not just dry, tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern. For free, each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be. TFNN Educating Investors You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. 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They're all about the same thing and that is, what do I see for the close out here today? Let's take a quick look here. Hey, hey, you know, I'm going to have 138. Yeah, still thinking 172, 51, 72, 75 for Apple. That would be pretty good for wiping out a great deal of those calls and not making it worth the while. So probably a tiny bit, let's call it 50 cents, to the downside before the close. That wouldn't be a big deal for Apple, but certainly would wipe out a lot of value of those calls that are sitting out there that expire today. And of course, more of a question about what's going to happen over the overall indexes. We had a huge pop, I want to say, I don't know, an hour ago or something, an hour and a half ago in the advanced decline line. And that kind of, I think, probably was the buying climax for the day. I don't think there's a lot of downside. I just don't think there's a lot of upside for the day. But yeah, the volume is going to be a little lighter on that side. Don't have a lot of people that were buying puts yesterday. So that continues to make me think if we didn't have a bunch of people buying puts today when I see that data tonight, and I'll come in with my newsletter Monday morning talking about it, then I'll still think that all we're doing is having some two steps forward, waiting for the three step. Now I wouldn't even call it three steps. We're going to call it the long jump back and two steps forward. And the long jump, long, anyway. So probably that week, but I'm looking for the big gap down. Maybe that happens next week. Maybe on the back of the ECB. Maybe several things are going to get it to happen. I'm still waiting for that big gap down in the bonds. Eight, seven, seven, oh, done. So what you can out when you have people be back on Monday, same back channel, same back time.