 TFNN, the morning market's kickoff with your host Tommy O'Brien. Good Wednesday morning everybody I'm Tommy O'Brien coming to you live from TFNN just after 9 a.m. Eastern time we got about 24 minutes to go until the start of trading quite the day yesterday to the upside we've accelerated overnight to an area of about 39.64 so you were 30 points above where we're trading at right now you look at the low we just had I mean you talk about some volatility folks looks like a pretty calm market you wake up the S&P's are negative by two points meanwhile overnight you had the S&P's trade down more than a full percent from the highs to the lows it's becoming so normal that it seems just normal for lack of a better word but nonetheless we had a 1% pullback in the S&P's just from where we're trading at at 10.45 last night back to where we were at about 8 in the morning you take a look at where we are though you talk about a Fibonacci retracement level to pull it up not even back to the 382 of the entire move higher we had you're talking about 130 points to the upside we give back 42 to the downside you don't even make it to the 382 we're going to open right almost where we closed yesterday's action let's take that off NASDAQ 100 pretty similar action as well you're trading within two points 12,271 we started yesterday about 11,900 look where we are well above where we were Monday before you had the sell-off right S&P's well above where we were Monday before that dramatic sell-off as well you jump over to the Dow Dow trading 31,762 your negative barely as well the Russell off by two points Bitcoin continuing to run right now almost made it to 24,000 quite a far cry from where we've been Bitcoin just one second for me there we go you jump over to crude crude trading at $99 and four pennies we're going to talk to our man Teddy Kegstad at 40 past the hour will talk a little bit of crude if you haven't checked out Teddy's newsletter yet folks the Tiger 4x report check it out on the front page of TFNN you can save 25% for the life of your subscription this month only check that out we'll talk to Teddy later in the hour we'll talk a little bit of crude we'll also talk a little bit of notes and bonds with Teddy the tenure we get some action this morning you have lower yields we're talking about a yield right now 2.96% in the 10-year we get the 10-year up 14 ticks you get the 30-year up 29 ticks you take a look at the 30-year on a longer-term basis we'll back it up even further than that to get the full run you really got to go back with this run started where they were at the peak July of 2020 but things really accelerating from about March when you were at 1.6 to E trade down to 1.31 we're back to 1.3915 you're positive almost a full point on the 30-year we jump to gold taking a look at gold longer term August of 2018 1167 up to 2089 you had been shopping around right at the 382 would just below that level in the 382 now technical analysis folks it's a art not a science where exactly is support on the lower boundary line of this is it at the 382 of 1741 have we already broken below that level is your support the lows that we had about a year and a half ago those lows in March of 2021 and again at the end of March 2021 you're talking about low let's see exactly what we're talking about here 1677 I have March 31st that week and I got a little bit lower I think here 1673 was the low and just recently what are we making down to 1695 looks to be the recent low either way gold whoops it's back out of there gold at the lower end of its consolidation 1706 silver right now you see that much different right silver well below that kind of consolidation area had silver breaking out of that area 1878 silver's up seven pennies today and we jump over to the VIX this is going to be an interesting one longer term you zoom in on the action outside of COVID we've spiked this year alone to 37 and change 36 and change 35 and change the VIX right back down to the area we bounce that at about six weeks ago 2454 all right let's jump around we had Netflix earnings last night after the bell now Netflix it's up about 4% 8 dollar move $30 was the implied move we'll see what happens on the open sometimes you really get a move on the open even if you don't get it overnight Netflix did spike as high as 225 last night as the markets waned a bit Netflix has waned also given up about $15 of that action you're trading almost a pre-market session lows outside of where it was last night for Netflix and let's jump over to the numbers a couple interesting articles here you just get into the raw numbers they lost nearly 1 million subscribers in the quarter after forecasting a dip of losing 2 million subscribers it's all about the subscribers right now for Netflix eventually it's going to turn into advertising as well the company forecasts a million net ads for the third quarter market was looking for an ad of 1.8 but you add in the fact the market was looking for they were forecasting a dip of 2 million they lose just a million they forecast 1 million net ads now on the next quarter maybe they'll begin growing again counting on changes such as cracking down on password sharing and adding an advertising tier to start in 2023 I'm not so sure that if you just crack down on the password sharing which they definitely can do okay they can make it a lot more difficult when you're logging in on different IPs on different locations checking that the you are the person maybe it's double verification in some fashion that doesn't automatically translate to all those people signing up folks maybe you have an aunt or an uncle or a nephew or a niece or a kid or a parent or a grandparent that's sharing them or just a friend that person doesn't have their own account because maybe they're not using Netflix enough to warrant paying $20 a month $15 a month for Netflix just because there's a little bit more difficult for them to log in don't imagine that they're just going to transition to signing up immediately now that's the numbers okay they were positive as they talk about I was looking for even the earnings they don't even talk about the earnings in this right pretty remarkable because it's all about subscribers probably rightfully so now I jump over here opinion piece from Bloomberg okay Martin Pierce opinion piece this is opinion it's not news okay Netflix shouldn't take a victory lap just yet some interesting facts though that are in this subscriber losses were not as severe as expected in the second quarter but investors need to look at the fine print so we just went over the subscriber losses for the last quarter they only lost a million they were supposed to lose to they lost about 970,000 was the exact number just shy of a million they talk about that they pushed the stock higher but then Mr. Martin Pierce says well hold on a second if you look at Netflix's subscriber numbers regionally things don't look so healthy so this is an important part of this whole conversation folks the only area where Netflix showed any real growth was Asia Pacific where it has a smaller presence than elsewhere it's only growing in its smallest market in its two biggest regions North America and Europe I'm gonna sneeze hold on one second excuse me okay I'll do that again so the only area they should growth in was Asia Pacific it's two biggest regions North America and Europe the Middle East and Africa those are two regions North America and Europe Middle East and Africa Netflix subscriber losses increase meaningfully in North America Netflix lost 1.3 million subscribers about double the loss in the first quarter losses are accelerating okay accelerating in their biggest most profitable market it's never good to be shrinking in your biggest and richest markets North American losses in particular reinforce the idea that Netflix blundered by raising prices as competition from the likes of Disney Apple and Warner Brothers Discovery was increasing you know maybe they lose those people without the price out I'm not sure but Netflix is not what it used to be in terms of price it's now 15 to 20 to more than $20 depending on what level membership you have in terms of how many people you can have streaming but that's something I hadn't heard yet this morning you know shrinking in the biggest markets accelerating in the US losing 1.3 million subscribers in the US we'll talk a little bit more about this later in the show they're making more money though average revenue per membership in North America up 7% 1595 stay tuned I'll be right back folks Vista Gold owns and operates the largest undeveloped gold project in Australia the Mount Todd Gold project Vista Gold just completed their feasibility study resulting in a seven million ounce gold reserve Vista Gold has all major permits approved and has retained CIBC capital market assistance in evaluating alternatives and in completing an accretive transaction Vista Gold trades on the NYSE American and TSX under the ticker symbol VGC 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tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours the Tiger's Den available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just one dollar for the year there's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders just visit the front page of tfnn.com welcome back folks we got the s&p's right now you're negative by three points NASDAQ 100 you're positive by three points you get the Dow negative by about 37 all the markets just off the highs you had earlier this morning let's jump over to our man Kevin Hanks every trading day folks 12 noon eastern time right here in tiger tv the TD Ameritrade network with fast market with your host Kevin Hanks Tom White they break down the day's market action and folks it is a great time to check out the program because we're coming into earnings week we got some great companies this week we get all the big tech stocks coming out at least a lot of them next week as we kick into earnings season in full gear Kevin Hanks good morning good morning Tommy O'Brien yeah last going on this morning not a lot in terms of economic data but the economic data we did get wasn't very good mortgage apps the lowest level since 2000 in terms of mortgage applications Tommy it's inflation the combination of inflation taking money out of the savings account and higher interest rates are affecting the purchasing power of Americans and you know mortgage apps took a pretty big hit this week but overnight the news was all about Netflix today the news and the focus will all be about Elon Musk and Tesla we'll get some airlines United and American in there as well but today is really all about Tesla and Netflix the reaction to Netflix and the the apprehension or excitement about Tesla's earnings this afternoon so jumping back to Netflix real quick you guys had a great program yesterday as usual I was checking out the program I was watching the segment on Netflix and you had a trade out there one of them looking for some volatility Kevin I know you went out I think you went out a couple weeks right did you go out past this Friday on that Netflix trade that you guys are making for the volatility we went out to next week so our trade is is out to next week and we did two different trades one for the more aggressive intermediate trader and one more for the beginner and both looks for movement Tommy movement in in Netflix but what we did because we didn't focus on just this week in option we gave you a little more time a little more duration on the trade to make that move a little more more possible give you a higher probability on that trade Tommy but yeah what we focused on Netflix was movement what we we didn't know as we don't which way it's going to go so we prepared for movement in either direction Tommy I thought it was pretty cool man going out a couple weeks because most times people if you're trading maybe you're trading on the the earnings event right you go out to the shortest expiration to pay the least but I've got the thicker some platform up here Kevin and these prices as of the close yesterday folks okay on the option so you're looking at a 32 dollar and 37 cent implied move for this week but if you're paying the premium for the volatility you go out next week it's only 37 and man this market one of the read the things I'm always considering Kevin is if you're bullish or you're bearish the market is moving so much right now even being in individual equities right you'd want to have some idea what you're expecting the market to do and every two weeks in the market man we're getting some pretty big moves so we'll see how that trade plays out Netflix higher this morning up to 210 uh they lose subscribers for the second quarter in a row but they say they're going to turn that around we'll see where we go from there right uh Tesla as you said coming up there the main event today we jump over to Tesla Kevin I jumped to the analyze tab they've got about a 40 dollar move priced in for a 736 dollar stock that's for the mark one day expected move when you jump over to the trades this week you're looking at about 50 dollars is the implied move give us a little teaser maybe on what you're looking for Tesla as they come into their numbers sitting at about 740 dollars today yeah all the things that are affecting u.s. multinational and now Tesla is a u.s. multinational are going to affect Tesla right the u.s. dollar is going to affect Tesla supply chain problems are going to affect Tesla tip shortage inflation the war in Ukraine all these things are going to affect Tesla so expectations are fairly low so let's see how Elon Musk just like read Hastings right he was able to present a positive outlook for Netflix go going forward so it's all about Tommy earnings everyone wants to talk about what what are earnings about earnings are about expectations and whether you're able to beat or not beat those expectations at least for today or at least for that micro shot that that photo right then the snapshot that's what earnings are about it's the expectation Netflix didn't do necessarily great but it beat expectations Tommy yeah maybe that's the the road to turn around for Netflix and Tesla I've got it up on the thinkorswim platform from the entire run at the covid lows of about 70 dollars which is remarkable up to 1243 we're sitting at 736 and remarkable Kevin as time flies that you know it seems like Tesla's been going up forever and then you have the big pullback this year with many of the tech stocks but you could make a case that now we're at a price point we've been at for a year and a half on Tesla shares we came into 2021 actually at about the price point we're trading at right now a little bit of consolidation and some of these equities at least as time extends with that in mind Kevin I know one stock you guys might be touching on today for the program at farth fast market but what are you guys talking about at 12 today we'll start out with united airlines comes out with the earnings after the bell today along with Tesla then like bolio will do their presentation on Tesla and we'll trade Tesla and then we'll do d8 dr horton uh that's the homebuilder who also has earned so three earnings place today on on bass market odd united airlines Tesla and dr horton homebuilder yeah you know that you know you were talking about the mortgage applications man it's gotta be pretty tough to be thinking about buying a house you get your you know a lot of different areas you're in a rockin hard place right now rent prices you know skyrocketing it probably makes sense if you have the ability to get into a house even at these levels but it's gotta be pretty tough Kevin even you know i look at the florida market right you say prices up 30 percent or something silly on in most occasions so you got a $300,000 house that's now a $400,000 house and meanwhile a year ago a $300,000 house you got a 3.5 percent mortgage on and now you're gotta get a 5.5 percent mortgage on a $400,000 house that's a daunting prospect man for that housing market uh especially looking at those who need mortgages um so we'll see where it plays out but they're doing a lot of building man right here i'm in the middle of florida by lakeland uh and they have a unit they i think it's three different builders kevin d r may even be in there i know like lennar is in there uh like 1400 houses something like that getting built right right next to our property so pretty cool well kevin we appreciate the time and the education as always man we'll be watching today we got some airlines we got tesla and we got some home builders as well in there we appreciate it kevin having great day tommy thanks for having me on always a pleasure man you too folks tune in 12 o'clock today tesla they'll talk about uh they'll talk some airlines and yeah they'll talk some builders uh pretty interesting in terms of where that market goes mortgage applications why don't we jump over to that right now to start things off 22 year low makes sense folks you know i mean it can still make sense to buy a home okay you can always refinance when rates come down if you're going to be paying a very high rental price anyway why not be stowing a little bit of that away in terms of paying for the capital the equity into the home uh you could make the case if you're really looking for a big pullback in the market maybe you could rent for another year or two and avoid that and get better prices but that's not a guarantee folks we are in a housing shortage and with inflation raging that is going to contribute to possibly housing prices holding up even as you have rates rising hurting the buying power of consumers but mortgages they're going to see it man um you could almost make the case i'm surprised it's not worse mortgage demand falling more than six percent last week compared with the previous week lowest level since 2000 talk a little bit more about this when we come back we'll be back for the open folks stay tuned time of booming inflation we are purchasing powers eroded there's no better place to protect your hard-earned money than ain't gold this the gold flagship asset is the muntog gold project in the northern territory of australia this is australia's largest undeveloped gold project we are talking a world-class gold project in a tail one mining district this is a large-scale low-cost project with significant existing infrastructure in a politically safe and friendly mining jurisdiction this the gold just completed the muntog feasibility study which resulted in a seven million ounce gold reserve in a 16-year mine life all of this combined with the approvals of all major operational as well as environmental permits this distinguishes muntog as an attractive dearest party ready development stage gold project this the gold 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to be tfnn educating investors this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com welcome back folks we got markets open and you're looking at the markets basically flat s&p's negative by two ticks nasdaq 100 positive by four the dow negative by 18 let's jump over and see how netflix is trading on the open look at that man you almost give it back only up 2% maybe they're paying attention to the fact like we talked about uh in that opinion piece that they might not be out of the water yet when you talk about a shrinking north american base uh the last part of that conversation that i was going to have though talking about netflix do i still have it up i think i do yes was the revenue so netflix is losing people in north america 1.3 million people uh double the rate that they lost last quarter okay but they're making more money from those netflix executives can also point to the financial benefit of the price increases average revenue per membership in north america average revenue 15.95 that could be part of the reason they're losing people that's an expensive membership you're talking about hundreds of dollars a year for your netflix membership in the face of everything else competing uh it's a new landscape for streaming in a big way increasing revenue off a diminishing number of customers is not a long-term recipe for growth it is in fact how the cable tv industry has been operating for a while which is hardly an industry netflix wants to emulate yeah they don't want to start losing americans in north america and meanwhile look at this man did not expect it to give it all back when you look at what they did though up to 225 be careful on this equity man let's jump over to disney disney is barely positive they got a lift last night with netflix uh they give most of it back the market is negative barely roku catches a little bit of a lift you're up 2.7 percent for roku shares uh 2.8 after they spike tire as well roku got a couple downgrades early yesterday clawed back to almost uh get it all back from the open finished positive yesterday accelerated higher i mean some of the arc stocks really were rocking yesterday another good arc catching a lift at two percent some of these stocks and what's that going to be that's going to be roku has a big position in there zoom has a big position in arc zooms up 2.7 percent let's see how tesla's trading ahead of their earnings up 1.2 percent so we jump over to the analyze tab tesla for the week you're looking at about a $53 move that's not too crazy when you think about from yesterday to last night you moved $43 and you didn't even have earnings right i mean this market is very volatile right now if you could peg the directional market overall direction of the entire market and you peg an equity that's going to miss or beat their earnings in the same direction you can really get an acceleration at some of these prices right now all right you jump over to some of the chips they're getting a lot of talk this week with Nancy Pelosi buying some Davidia shares uh everybody's all up in arms about that and you know i agree people from congress maybe they should probably have a blind trust so they're not biased from their financial positions maybe they divest like presidents should also do if people are that up in arms but all that would have to happen is your politicians just got to get it done folks same thing with the presidency if you don't want that to happen we could just make it a law so they get held accountable and all that stuff but if your politicians wanted it if you voted for people that cared about that stuff then they'd get it done and there it is senate advances more than 50 billion dollar bill to boost the us semiconductor production uh and this one is important from a national landscape folks in terms of making sure that we have the power to produce chips that are going to control the world in the future because you're going to see that play out with china in taiwan with taiwan semiconductor um it's going to approve about 50 billion dollars in subsidies to bolster the computer chip manufacturing multifaceted bipartisan effort ever but then it states the but the current legislation comes more than one year after the senate first approved a 250 billion dollar bill to reinforce us chip making to compete with china and what is it what is it isn't taiwan semiconductor spending like 100 billion or 200 billion or something like that to produce more infrastructure to build chips i'll pull it up in the next break it's something staggering the amount of money they're spending that you have to spend to be able to produce these chips but we need to do it because if we leave it all to taiwan semiconductor and they're dealing with geopolitical issues with china that's a problem in the future all right what else do i have pulled up here oh okay this is a good one from john author's opinion piece over at bloomberg some interesting statistics in here about the market though full capitulation could mean opportunity knocking there's deep negativity over the outlook of the economy but previous occasions when big fund managers favorite bonds this much turned out to be historically great for stocks okay past performance not necessarily indicative of future results is the disclaimer you got a throw when you look at some of this stuff we are dealing with a very um what would be the best word very uh distinct market right now with very unique that's the word unique aspects of what this market is facing but you look at some of the data okay uh it's very unusual for big fundage fund managers to be overweight and bonds relative to equities and suggest deep negativity about the immediate outlook of the economy and yet the latest addition of bank america corpse monthly survey of global fund managers finds that they are now more underweight in stocks than bonds than at any time since march 2009 the month the stock market hit bottom after leeman brothers collapse you look where it is you got 2009 they were super overweight may of 2020 right after the pandemic when the stock market really accelerated on one level it's awful uh the people who deploy assets for long term think it's better to lead to the government than take a share in the profits of growing businesses well sometimes those multiples that you're paying for the share of the profits is not a very attractive proposition you can make that case when the s&p was at 4800 right when the nasdaq 100 was trading at 16000 and change taking a share of those profits of the multiples the market was going to charge you not very attractive but then at another level opportunity might just be knocking this is how stocks have performed compared to bonds excuse me since the beginning of 2009 the previous two times that the fund management community went overweight in bonds and that was in the wake of the 2009 crisis and during the coveted lockdowns of 2020 the last two times bonds were overweight there's the red area in 2009 and then there is the coveted acceleration when you were overweight as well so there's one take okay then you get into and this is uh the bank of america global fund manager survey okay and this is net percentage taking higher than normal risk levels okay and this is again talking about management okay and they talk about here this is what john author's saying okay bank most of the time bank of a's managers think they are taking restless less risk than usual and their times when they're wrong about this most spectacularly in 26 2006 and 2007 okay however it seems reasonable to assume that the survey is directionally accurate even if they are at times taking more risk than they think managers are probably right when they believe they're throwing caution to the winds and when they feel like they're being extra careful and they currently think that they're taking less risk than at anytime since the survey started asking the question more than 20 years ago okay and look where they were in october of 2008 the market is forward thinking it gets ahead of itself folks okay that's why it started tanking january 1st it's brilliant sometimes how the market functions and it's forward thinking and anticipates what's going to happen and money gets ahead of what has happened okay some of this data is pointing to that maybe we are reaching a possible point it's got to get backed up by the data okay but keep your eye on some of this stuff because when you hit historic levels like this and we are in a unique situation which is why you got to digest all of it but we'll talk a little bit more about some of that when we get back stay tuned tfnn has been your trusted source of analysis for bonds metals stocks commodities and options for years and we are happy to announce that we are bringing that same caliber of analysis for the forex market teddy kextat has 30 plus years of experience in forex trading commodity risk management forex hedging volatility and so much more teddy releases his weekly tiger forex report every monday morning with elite coverage of all major currency pairs including the dxy euro dollar pound dollar oz dollar dollar yen dollars swiss frank and so much more teddy will recommend specific trades when the market presents them and provide updates throughout the week when warranted for the month of july inaugural members to the tiger forex report will receive 25 percent off the monthly subscription for as long as they're subscribed just use promo code teddy 25 to lock in the added savings this offer is good only for the month of july so do not miss your opportunity to save on a tiger forex report tfnn educating investors the technology around us is changing every day with so much happening it can seem impossible to keep up with all the information david white's investment newsletter the technology insider is designed to give you all the 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fund's prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus call 866-476-7523 or visit direction investments dot com a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principle the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor for side fund services llc this program is brought to you by vista gold traded on the nyse american ntsx under the symbol vgz welcome back folks we have the markets barely positive right now you're looking at an s and p positive by three points at 3941 nasdaq 100 catches a lift up by 50 get the dow negative by 50 right now commodities currencies bitcoin continuing to rise hitting about 24000 crude right now sitting at 9842 excuse me one second and with that let's jump over to our man teddy keg stat from forex dash trading dash unlock dot com and folks if you head on over the front page tfnn right now teddy has an outstanding newsletter the tiger forex report it comes out every monday along with updates when warranted uh just kick things off in this month folks you can use code teddy 25 only through july so it's already July 20th right use code teddy 25 save 25 percent for the lifetime your subscription you still got a 30-day money back guarantee so nothing to risk teddy keg stat good morning good morning tommy so where uh where would you like to kick things off in this market teddy we got crude sitting at about 99 dollars uh we got the euro slightly getting a little bit of a lift back above parity uh what are you looking at in this market to kick things off this week i think one of the key things you got to watch you had the bank at japan talking yesterday and also later on uh today which is are they going to do something with the rates or not probably not so i'm thinking that you're not going to see anything really occur with that but you do have some economic numbers for uh japan's the cpi being one of them tomorrow i think that could actually rock the us dollar yen trade but that is something to watch if they do make a rate decision you know the yen has been one of the strongest trending currencies you know uh that pair you know for the past like six months especially so if they do make a rate decision meaning raising rates which is kind of unlikely right now if anything japan's probably going to wait a little bit longer and not fall under their pressure i think of uh the rest of the global central banks yeah quite a chart man when i put it up here two big moves you have the one in march and to a high in may a slight pull back for about three weeks and then you take off again and we're sitting almost right at those highs at 138 man and then the ecb right tomorrow we're probably going to get first hike in 10 11 years probably 25 but now i know it's a little bit up in the air with 25 or 50 um what are you looking at for their possible rate decision how that plays into to the euro and some of the other currencies potentially well right now i think that's what's giving the uh the dollar index a little bit of pressure to the downside and i believe that after tomorrow's meeting once they are done with that decision then it's going to just reverse gears and dollar strength will kick back in so i think right now this pullback in the dollar index remember the euro is the strongest component of that you know that's been pulling back for the past week so i think that right now anyone that read the for the tiger forex report knows that we're coming right into our critical uh target zone for this correction which coincides with this ecb meeting i think what will happen is tomorrow they'll do either they do raise the rates or they don't do anything whatever it is after that you're going to see a sell-off in the euro u.s dollar because the reality is is we have a meeting coming up next week and we know we're going to get at least a three-quarter of a point uh hike maybe upwards of a full full percentage point so that'll out that'll overtake anything the ecb does you know so the ecb thing is a one quick little unless they were to do something radical but i don't think that they can i mean right now all the economies in europe are imploding and it's pretty remarkable i was reading about i mean it almost gets lost and everything going on over here that they're sitting at negative 50 basis points right now and they haven't raised in like 11 years and the expectation is they raise a quarter point which would bring them to negative a quarter point as their rate i mean even if they go 50 basis points right their rates basically zero um but it is a change in things and maybe that is the reason you have a slight pullback boy i got it up though even just the euro u.s dollar you have a bounce here but this destruction has been so tremendous that all you have is is lower lows and lower highs and maybe this is one of those lower highs let's talk a little bit still there right yeah very much intact i would agree uh let's talk a little bit of crude so quite a little bounce we have going on from about 90 dollars last week yeah would we make 90 56 on thursday you hit 100 dollars just yesterday what's your take on crude right now in where we are uh well last week's uh swing low was a very critical support low i think that's probably going to be your base i mean one of the things that is kind of giving it a little bit of a pause on crude right now is that the global demand in europe it's not because demand is waning because they don't want to use it but there's rationing now of uh energy supplies whether it's oil and gas and everything across the board throughout the e u and it's getting more and more restrictive so as that happens you're having an artificial clampdown on demand that's probably what's holding back crude right now but as far as global supply i think that no matter what this is just a pause for the cause no matter i think that we're going to still see another balance now if crude gets back above 105 look out then we are then we're making higher move highs after a higher move low that would confirm a neutral to higher basis you know our bias excuse me it is pretty cool that we kind of just traded right back to that breakout area from february 25th you give it all back from that first acceleration you touch almost 90 dollars and just like that we're back at 100 like nothing uh our notes in bonds so we have a little bit of a reprieve right now the 10 years sitting about 2.96 i think you got the 30 year at 139 and change off of about 131 uh where do you see maybe that bond market going giving a tease with with everything going on with the ecb having having their action tomorrow um and of course with the fed having a meeting when is it next week right just that right next next tuesday wednesday right well i think right now what you have is i mean you can see that the the interest rate markets right now are kind of wedging you know they're not really they're not trending they're actually just kind of consolidating and i think that what you're going to see is basically the pump before the dump you know so like going into this ecb meeting i wouldn't doubt that you're going to see the the bonds in the 10 year probably rally a little bit over the next uh you know a few days a day or so and then after that we're going to start heading into that fed meeting so we know that the expectations are for at least a three-quarter of a point hike upwards of a percentage point so i think we'll see the bonds heading towards their lows going into tuesday it'll be sometime between tomorrow and tuesday heading back on support but remember during the fed meeting stay away from the interest rates because they're going to probably be very very choppy and sideways on tuesday and into wednesday's number yeah it's pretty cool to see how it's going to play out especially now that you're going to have the ecb potentially in a hiking cycle um a lot of these paths been dead set right with the u.s and they have so far to go i wonder how far they can go i was reading an article earlier this week talking about that their window was already tightening even before they started hiking in terms of the market expectation for their total hikes this year already going down just on the prospect that they can't really handle it man um with this economy not like we can a speed um at least and we're even in a tough spot right now you hit the nail on the head right there tommy yeah it's it's it's an interesting one man and folks you know forex even if you don't trade forex i've learned so much in talking to teddy now reading his report every week it's shaping so much of what's going on i mean i know we've talked about it before teddy and maybe it's just because i talked to you every week now and i understand the market better but it seems like this is an especially important time with like everything going on with forex with the interest rate structures of each country and how that's driving i mean we're going to see it in this earning season right now man you know with the dollar and these companies if you're not following forex and what these companies are doing it's it's going to be a huge part of this earnings is this is this an especially interesting time as somebody that's big into forex like yourself oh absolutely you know and that's the thing that most people don't understand is the dynamics of how currencies really affect things and right now when you have basically hyperinflation around the globe you know when you have all these supply chain issues and what have you it compounds these things you know yeah and copy you know right now with strong dollar you know lots of people are you know they're like well a dollar strong dollar is good for us but it's really hammering our uh you know the people we do trade with outside of the u.s. oh i mean the moves are just staggering man the yen the euro folks check out the tiger forex report enter code teddy 25 sign up save 25 percent teddy man i appreciate it we'll talk to you next week tf sounds good time you have a great day thank you man we'll be right back folks hosted at discord tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours and now they are expanding the reach with the tiger's den available to all tigers and tiger's is for just one dollar for the year there's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders in the tiger's den you can look over the shoulders of tom o' brian and the other tfnn hosts while they analyze charts during their live tiger tv programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas interact with other tigers and tiger's is 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at any time first time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today tfnn.com educating investors this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com welcome back folks we get the s&p is basically flat negative by one point NASDAQ 100 positive by 43 got amazon hire today we'll jump around to some of the stocks before we do folks we just finished up with teddy right there on the front page of tfnn and the tiger forex report again just enter code teddy 25 you add the code you'll see the 25% savings reflected that stays with you for as long as you subscribe and you still get a 30-day money back guarantee outstanding report teddy puts out every week and he's got updates folks that come out throughout the week very important time going to be interesting to see what happens as the ecb starts their hiking you got the euro basically a parity they're going to start hiking from negative 50 basis points and the expectation is they go up by a quarter point to bring them to negative a quarter point tomorrow i think it was about a 50-50 shot that they go 50 basis points that was at least the odds yesterday the odds on monday though where it was it was 80 chance they go 25 basis points so things obviously very fluid in this market you jump over to amazon there's a lift for you up 1.6 percent apple shares are flat this morning microsoft shares up a bit you jump over to netflix they give back most of it man pretty remarkable up 2% to 205 now what's interesting is netflix is up 2% right disney getting a lift actually up more than netflix up 2.9% check out roku getting a lift up 5.3% in the streaming sector uh so netflix giving some of these stocks to lift but what is going on is you just got some of these growth stocks going zoom up 4.2% arc up 2.6% continuing to catch a lift we jump over to tesla shares ahead of their earnings tonight basically flat down about two tenths percent for tesla shares so far this morning and that's with the nasdaq 100 positive by about 25 we jump around some of the airlines american negative by about six tenths percent united they are basically flat and uh the cruise ships as well up about two percent for carnival look at that let's see where that is that just break back to within its channel line so quite a channel line and check this out you back it up even further how cool is that right it's not cool if you're a shareholder okay but this thing's been in a downtrend channel since december of 2018 accelerated out of it during covid got back within it right and what you do maybe you break back into that channel carnival up 2% stay tuned folks now we got to replay this final hour last day we're going to do it with basil out i'll be right back for the 10 o'clock update