 Bit of an odd slate for tonight in daily fantasy baseball with a lot of good pictures on this eight game slate But several of them are in very weird spots where they're kind of in repeat matchups facing top our teams are doing something That kind of clouds are outlook a bit. We're just in really bad form right now So it does complicate things a bit for us trying to identify which guys we want to build around I do think there are guys who check enough key boxes to be quality daily fantasy plays But definitely some question as to the viability of them and how assert we should feel in those guys We'll break down who those guys are Why things could potentially go awry why so like them and much more to get you ready for Monday night and MLB DFS Welcome on into the solo shot. That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire here to break down Monday nights Eight game main slate what locks up for 705 p.m. Eastern for today The big weather note on this slate is that there is a chance of rain tonight in Minneapolis to the twins Mariners I would bet they get most of that game in but there is some risk toward the end of that night where potentially It's a delay post, you know a suspension stuff like that So I would check back on the timeline of the weather in Minneapolis later on to make sure you are good to go with Luis Castillo and kenta Maeda in that game We'll talk about those guys later on and get you ready for the pitching preview here in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast We were here every weekday talking MLB got some PGA on Tuesdays USC on select events on Friday's as well all right here in the same place And of course a solo shot doesn't go up as well over on the fandal YouTube page and on fandall TV plus on Amazon fire Apple TV and Roku devices as well The US women's soccer team is taking on the world and you can take home bonus bets every time they win with fandall because right now New customers get $100 in bonus bets guaranteed plus another $10 in bonus bets for every team USA win Sign up between now and August 3rd So this is still going despite the fact they have played their first game Then place your first $5 bets to unlock your bonus bets that way You'll be all set to bet on everything from total goals to player props all tournament long However, you want to play don't miss a chance to get $10 in bonus bets for every team USA win plus $100 in bonus bets guaranteed make every moment more with fandall America's number one sports book gambling problem Call 1 800 gambler in massachusetts. Hope is here gambling helpline ma.org or call 800 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in new york 1 8 7 7 8 hope and wire text open y Must be 21 plus in president select states first online real money wager only 10 dollar deposit required refund issued is non withdrawal bonus bets which expire in seven days Restrictions apply sequel terms at fandall dot com slash sports book Fandall is offering online sports wagering in kansas under an agreement with kansas star casino llc gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or is the fandall dot com slash rg in arizona 1800 next step or text next step to 5334 2 in Connecticut 1 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 7 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in indiana 1 800 9 with it and y oming in kansas 1 805 224 700 or in kansas ks gambling health dot com Louisiana's 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in maryland md gambling health.org and in west virginia Go to 1 800 gambler dot net Pitching preview for this monday main st louis castillo comes in with the highest salary on fandall his salary is $10,800 you darver's 10,000 followed by host a barrios in 98 We got logan allen in 94 with john gray brandon belac kenton maeta and grand ashcraft as the others At $8,000 or higher on this slate. We do have a pair of high strikeout guides facing each other in minneapolis That's louis castillo taking on kenton maeta The problem is those they're facing two decent offenses and Those two pitchers just saw the same opposing teams last week. So familiarity is about as high as they can get So i think i'm gonna put you darvish as my top pitcher the night at $10,000 Darvish is at home against the pirates, which is a pretty neutral matchup They've got a 98 wrc plus against righties with a 23 strikeout rate. They're basically league average in both those categories So it's not about the matchup. I just like darvish himself. He's always Experimenting he's got like 40 different pitches. So his pitch mix is always changing Most recently darvish has been throwing more curve balls. It's nade start sample and the results have been mixed But he is getting some strikeouts. He's hit nine strikeouts twice And he had nine or seven last time out. That's what making only three of his eight starts at home He is at home this time around and darvish's strikeout rate is four percentage points higher at home this year than it is on the road So i've got darvish projected for a 6.2 strikeouts tonight That's not a huge number by any means but it is enough to make him a quality play on this slate Where there are so many guys in somewhat daisy situations. So to me View darvish does belong at the top of our list for today Despite the fact it's not a great matchup and despite the fact that darvish not exactly in his highest strikeout form as of right now Number two is logan alan. He's facing the royal tonight and he's also imperfect, but It's a really good matchup and alan is at home And I think we can give him a swing here The matchup is a big part of this because the royals are an advantageous matchup for lefties with a 93 w rc plus And a 143 iso they also strike out a lot with a 25 strikeout rate But their walk rate is low at seven percent, which means that the royals average few pitches for plate appearance Relative to their high strikeout rate. So even though they strike out a lot You're not wasting a lot of pitches against and that's good for alan because he's had big issues with pitch efficiency at times this year He faced the royals back on june 28th He threw 98 pitches and lasted just three and two-thirds innings And he got demoted after that because they kept burning the bullpen after alan went out because he was super inefficient They have been keeping his stints kind of short this year But he did throw 132 and two-thirds innings last year. He's at 87 so far this year So I don't think it's a situation where they're scaling back his innings for that reason It just seems like he's not efficient And he may get better in that regard because of the matchup despite what happened back on june 28th and alan does have upside He said eight strikeouts. Um, he had eight strikeouts last time out In a five inning shutout appearance. He had 10 strikeouts in late may So I think alan can put up a big score on fandal and his salary is $9,400 So to me alan does enough to be a quality play for tonight I'd put him behind darvish for sure But I do think he belongs as the second stud For tonight, we'll talk about louise castillo and things to watch Among the value plays I do feel best about kenta mayeda I thought pretty long and hard about making a case for john gray But with the astros getting your don alvarez back tonight in gray kind of in a very weird slump It's a rougher situation. So I do want to go towards mayeda despite the fact He's had some weird matchups too or weird starts and it is a repeat matchup as mentioned with the mariners But mayeda has tremendous underlying numbers Since coming off the il he's made five starts and in that time He has a 3.11 skill interactive eray with a 35 strikeout rate and that strikeout rate actually went up last time out because He had nine strikeouts in six and a third innings against these various same mariners And honestly given their situation that makes a lot of sense They have a 25 strikeout rate against righties across the full season It is worth noting that mayeda did that on just 80 pitches So it wasn't like the twins suddenly gave him a longer leash Mayeda was just very efficient Now he does have to face them again But he's at home this time his swinging strike rate there was 17.5 percent And it's 16.3 percent in the five starts since he's come back The bad of ball data for mayeda is not great. Which is why you can have some weird starts But and you add that into the repeat matchup and the pitch count. That's why I'm not higher on mayeda But I think you can do a lot worse than him for $8,400. Again, alan has his flaws Darvish is not perfect either. So I see no reason to Exclude kenta mayeda from your player pool for tonight I've got mayeda projected for 20.9 plate appearances alan projected for 22.5 So not a huge gap between those two guys and I do have mayeda with a higher strikeout projection So probably would go mayeda above alan overall tonight after considering salary But Everyone on this late is kind of flawed. So keep that in mind if you find someone you think is better than them I'm probably not going to talk you out of them. We'll talk about least castillo in things to watch too So a lot of different ways you can play things a pitcher for tonight, but I'll go with Darvish one mayeda two logan alan three after considering salary Let's dig now into the stacks adam wainwright coming off the injured list tonight and he's expected to go around 65 pitches So it'll be wainwright plus the cardinals bullpen But I think that combo is a good reason to stack the diamond bags tonight The roof will be closed in arizona Which means it's not as good of a park as usual because it is a cooler temperature then But the matchup does make up for it wainwright really struggling before he went on the il He made 11 starts and get a 7.66 e r a His expected e r a is somehow actually worse than that at 8.22 Because he's not getting any strikeouts his bad at ball data much worse than it was last year His barrel rate this year is 11.7 percent and it was 6.5 last year So the hope as someone who's watched adam wainwright his entire life basically is that he'll turn it around Maybe the il stint can fix that for wainwright It's hard to see that though And the cardinals bullpen is average behind him They're facing a really solid arizona offense with a 109 a w r c plus against righties in the current active roster So I think the card the diamond backs great out really well here and will be my top stack of the night Even with the roof being closed in arizona I specifically love her although perdomo in these stacks where he's bad lead off against righties It's got a 146 iso which is fine But he runs a lot It's a similar thought process for jake mccarthy where he's not going to have for a ton of power But for him batting sixth, that's the spot where you can steal Perdomo batting lead off you can steal And both these guys perdomo mccarthy can't have big games via speed So what I want to do is use value plays like those guys in order to Get up to the studs elsewhere in the lineup and especially with darwish being 10,000 you can get there for tonight So arizona a team where you can stack them and get to the studs in the lineup Which is definitely how I want to play things for tonight I do think the other side of the game is interesting too. The cardinals likely facing rye nelson It has not been officially announced that nelson will start this game for arizona. So I would check back on that later to make sure it is in fact nelson and not someone else. So Feel free to ask me on twitter if they change starters and I can give you my opinion of that there But I assume it will be rye nelson nelson has had back to back really good starts And he's now at four good starts in his past five outings and all those are for the four good starts all came on the road So it might be dumb to keep stacking against nelson But I will let's look at those five starts and kind of digging into those specifically nelson's pitch mix and those pretty similar to what it has been all year and his vlo is similar so from a philosophical perspective and a stuff perspective not a whole lot different And the results have just been great But the peripherals have been fine more so than great Even if we look at just the five games where nelson has pitched really well So chair picking to make it as look as good as possible He has a 4.57 skill interactive era with a 42 hard hit rate and an 11.7 percent barrel rate last time out nelson led up three barrels against the braves and So that led up just three total hits I think what he's doing is unsustainable And the results should match the peripherals eventually and it could wind up being here because the cardinals Have a 116 at wrc plus against righties with a 184 iso So again, it's not a great park for hitting tonight. It is elevation which helps but not the the temperature But I do still think the cardinals very much worth it now The one thing that could change this is health because a lot of guys for the cardinals are banged up Nolan gorman wilson catreras now play sunday lars newt bar left that game early So you could still potentially stack them without those guys and they'd be great for one offs But it would downgrade them for sure overall lineup quality could decrease a lot depending on what the cardinals lineup looks like So check it out if they are super super depleted. Maybe reevaluate and look elsewhere But and again check on the starter for arizona 2 but as of right now I do think the cardinals are a solid stack for tonight Our third stack is not as good of an offense as the Arizona st. Louis. It's the nationals and It's rough, but they're in a great match of today and the weather is warm So I do think they belong on the radar. They're facing the rockies It sounds like carl kaufman is going to be the bulk reliever for the rockies after bird And i'm going to go based around that assumption because it does sound like it will be kaufman kaufman Spent some time in the big leagues earlier this year got knocked around with a 10.19 era in 17 and 2 3rd innings And that's kind of aligned with expectations based on what's happened with kaufman so far in triple a His era down there is 6.94 with a 5.78 xfib He got there because of a low strikeout rate and lots of hard contact And that's the same thing we saw when he was in the majors and some of those games were against non-elite offenses This one is in washington so kaufman does benefit because it's not a course field That's a big thing for him, but that's kind of the only positive here I think we'll want to be on the gnats in this game, which has not happened often this year So the nationals to me the number three stack behind the cardinals and the diamond backs It really does seem like cj abrams is trending up here for the nationals over the past month His barrel rates up to 7% His strikeout rate is down to 5 percentage points and because of how fast he is it's allowing him hit it for power But of course also steel bases Salary for abrams is three thousand dollars I think he is easily worth that and I will consider him for both stacks and one offs given That he does seem to have One and a half sources of upside I would say the power is still a half but the speed is legitimate So I think that's enough to make adrams a quality play for tonight in dfs Let's go now to things to watch. I do think you should consider louise castillo for tournaments the twins very high strikeout matchup Castillo just had 11 against him last week. He's salary is 10,800 dollars He's on the road repeat matchup. No Byron buxton first night sounds like he will be on the paternity list so I think we should see people stay away from castillo because of the repeat matchup and stuff like that But I also think that's why he is a tournament pivot at best I can't go beyond that because three feet matchup does matter the twins being a good offense, you know buxton does matter too so Didn't thought but maybe don't need to force it for tonight I've tried stacking against scram ashcraft recently and i'm probably done for tonight He's facing the brewer. So not a great offense and the ground ball rate for ashcraft is still really good And it's paired with good results. So I've seen enough where I'll hold off for a bit Maybe we'll be back on ashcraft later on but for right now. I'm okay No longer stacking against him Finally brandon belac is facing the rangers who have no corey seager which is a bummer for their offense But they still have a 114 at wrc plus against righties on the current active roster without him belac's results are Much better than his peripherals. So I'd be willing to use a couple of the rangers as One offs or maybe in a stack. I think that they are at least in consideration for that Against belac for tonight Let's finish up here with some dinger calls for the main slate the boring one Revenge game paul goldschmidt taking on arizona. I feel like we got to go there Facing a guy who has struck with hard contact with five balls if it is in fact nelson So to me, we'll make paul goldschmidt the boring home run call for tonight But the fun one. Let's go jamer condolario. It's actually had a really good year kitten for good power against righties 15 home runs so far it seems like it's pretty legit as far as the the You know against righties at least what he's done So I feel okay about it. So we'll go with paul goldschmidt and jamer condolario as our dinger calls for tonight second consecutive podcast the national being in the dinger calls that elaine thomas is there And he went deep in the first inning against alex wood back on friday So weirdly back-to-back podcasts with the nationals in the dinger calls That is all that we have here for today on the solo shot as mentioned Do not forget to subscribe to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast Check us out on youtube on fan duel as well and on fan duel tv plus if you've got any questions for me I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s want to thank you all for tuning in for today Good luck to you with your mlb dfs lineups And we'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down to stay asleep This has been the solo shot right here on the fan duel podcast network