 Hello there, this is Stowe Boyd on the other end here from Work Talk Research and I'm Gerd Leonhardt, Futurist and CEO of the Futures Agency today with a webinar. I'm very happy to have Stowe with me. Our webinar is going to be on social television and the future of television in general and the format of this webinar is very interactive so we're looking to talk a little bit less than usual and let me go to full screen here so you can actually see my beautiful slides here. If you want to follow us it's G. Leonhardt for my main feed and at Stowe Boyd and of course the website will be all in the email you're going to get sometime from tomorrow from us but thefuturesagency.com and Stowe is at stoweboyd.com right Stowe? And Work Talk is worktalk.ly. Okay cool. So what we're going to do here is basically do a short presentation. Stowe will go first. We'll be taking questions throughout. None of you at this point is activated on the microphone but we can do that so if you want to talk you can use the control panel. There's a control panel hopefully that you have up on your screen. You can use that to ask questions anytime and I'll be working it back and forth and I will also activate individually people who want to talk and ask questions but if you do want to talk make sure you use a microphone or a headset and hopefully not your iPad in a taxi in Los Angeles. So welcome to the webinar. I'm going to change the presentation and I'll make a brief introduction about what I do just in case you haven't actually noticed and Stowe will do a short introduction on his own past and what he does. I'm going to go to full screen on Stowe. Sorry I can't actually do that because I have to see the control. So we're still playing with the system as you can see a little bit. Can you Stowe can you see the slide okay here? Is it okay? Hold on just one second here. Make sure we actually have it. Okay there's another drawback here of the system okay. All right sorry about that. We're experimenting here with how we should present this but is this good now? Looks good. Okay all right over to Stowe and again welcome to the webinar. Use the question box and if you if you're having questions about PDFs and stuff that we're using in here everything is going to be in the email tomorrow including these slides and everything so we don't want to spend too much more time on the particularities. So over to Stowe. So the backdrop of everything we're going to talk about today is really something we're not going to talk about explicitly but it's important to touch upon it at least for a moment and that is we've seen the rise of the social web as an amazingly transformative set of innovations and in some ways completely unexpected. You know years ago I think if you asked people what was going to be the most important thing coming out of the rise of the internet most people a decade ago would not have said the social thing. They would talk about e-commerce or you know better connecting business processes or cross companies and so on and to some extent that is true. All those things have happened as well but the social web has been an astonishing thing perhaps as I say the most important unprecedented and unexpected thing humanity has done in the last 200 years and of course that's having a big impact on everything it touches and so in particular the rise of of social television and you know a range of other things we're going to talk about the second screen which is a primary aspect of this and I'm going to ask Gerd to jump ahead and skip over my background or slide because people can look at that when we send out the deck but I'm really well-known guy we're doing a lot of stuff in the world of social tools and that's my research area but we will send you more information about that later so you can jump right to the next slide. What leads us to say is though if people haven't heard about you they've lived under a rock so here you are here's the next slide. Well the thing that underscores all of this I think is this great quote by Kevin Kelly that the thinking about the economics of the new environment we're operating in is that the imperative of that central imperative is that you know everything that is going to become meaningful to us or increase in meaningfulness to us is going to amplify relationships and that is exactly what we're seeing in television. You're seeing this really amazing phenomenon where entertainment people who years ago might have been very risk averse to using things like blogging and so on with the rise of the new technologies today particularly based on tablets and and mobile devices they are anticipating a one-to-one relationship with every person out there who is you know as they say consuming their content from my viewpoint I just think of it as TV use that we're using the television now like a device that has apps on it and we are now having this connection to you know the the studios the producers the directors the writers of these these art forms in a way that was on that is totally unprecedented and so the biggest change next like dirt the biggest change is this transition of what we think about television so television can be thought of as you know a spectrum of electromagnetic radiation the way the scientists might think about it you can think about it as a medium of communication the way that you know McLuhan thought about it back in the 60s we often just think of television is like the kinds of entertainment we're seeing but the thing that's really happening now that's most important and central to our discussion today it's as I put it here another corner of human civilization that is being pulled into the black hole of the web and just as the web has changed all the other media that it's come in contact with like print journalism and so on it is radically changing the way that television is created way it's distributed the way it's part the term they use consumed I hate it I don't like to talk about consumption of media but the way that users are going to use television is already changing dramatically and that's that's the central thesis of my talk today which I'm going to race through because I want to get interactive as Gerd said okay just a quick input a few more new people in here if you want to ask questions please use the question box and type away I'll be monitoring this throughout and then we can assign the audio to individuals later on as well go on so next slide please so basically I characterize this as a transition from old television you know the dumb box in the corner connected to a cable box or a satellite dish but now it's coming in contact with the internet and everything's changing very fast and we're going to new TV and so the next slide Gerd shows what old TV was like and the standalone television the dumb box it was a broadcast model where they would you know send out you know the the old appointment television model where you watch the show at nine very centralized monopolies I mean we're still seeing a lot of those things very much in place the the fact that I can't you know watch a single NBA game or just rent you know Game of Thrones from HBO is is a telling problem and is going to be one of the biggest hurdles and I know it's one of the things that people want to talk about because of some of the new news that's coming out for example HBO is experimenting now in Scandinavian countries with an over top unbundled version of HBO and that's creating a lot of tongue wagging and we will talk later about why it is that things like that might happen and when but this is a mechanism that is based on scarcity economics and is very content-centric but the new TV is just starting all right it's still new days and in fact we're actually seeing it in the order of more or less that we're looking at here first of all we're seeing the swarm of devices it's not just a dumb TV in the corner people are watching television with all their devices on at the same time they have the tablet they have their mobile phone it was a study done by Ericsson quite recently that shows worldwide now over 50% of users are accessing social media while watching television while watching the dumb TV in the corner but they're connected with their tablet or phone to various social media tools and the number in the United States is much higher it's above 70% of Americans are now watching as they watch television and multiple devices on and this the reason that people doing it is it's very social and participatory and these other things are going to trickle through and change the way the complexion of this industry at a business level we're going to talk about those in the next few slides obviously the swarm of devices the next slide is you know increasingly being driven by the the adoption of smartphones and now tablets as I said earlier the majority overwhelming majority of Americans are now doing this and they're also doing things combination of things they're looking things up yes they're doing searches to find out more information but they're also using specialized apps which is sort of the interesting most interesting thing of the growth of these new apps that are designed to run on the second screen that provide an amplified experience for people and they have all kinds of fascinating capabilities like audio fingerprinting where you can turn on your your Shazam on your on your iPhone hold it up to the TV and then Shazam knows what television show you're watching and then you can share that information with other friends so they can watch the same show with you and you can chat about the NBA game or whatever it is and so you can actually synchronize your watching and become very social through that but it also could be a really interesting experience for new advertising the possibility for someone an advertiser to provide you an ad about those Nike sneakers that that basketball player is wearing if you're that sort of person they could know something about your past viewing preferences and know that you're interested in sneakers and then give you real-time additional information about those sneakers up to and including the possibility of buying them while you're watching the show so we're seeing a whole bunch of opportunities here and some of them are actually very radical and I'm going to revisit one of those later the the end run as I've called it in the report that I wrote earlier this year on this topic on social television and the second screen but I'm going to hold that for the my last comment at the very end so do you hear me so yeah yeah it strikes me that this is really no longer television by definition really right because you know if you look at the original definition of television it is it is a one-way thing right and we watch and that's it right it's broadcasting right and so I call I call this broad banding and I think we have this convergence of broad broadcasting and broad banding which which will completely implode the business model of a one-way thing I don't know what you're thinking about this but if it's a swarm of devices we're not going to have the same guys own that part of the food chain and well and that's that's exactly the challenge you know who is it that is paying who to sell you that that Nike sneaker it might not be the NBA and so you know there's a there's some really interesting questions about you know if it's if you're using a device let's say you're using on some hypothetical future Amazon device you know that provides a integrated experience into Amazon you know that meaning the store the the whole spectrum of things that someone like Amazon offers Amazon doesn't necessarily have to make a deal with the NBA to provide you that sneaker information or the sneaker itself or give them a slice of the revenue so it opens up all kinds of alternatives that are in in fact threatening to the sort of established monopolies in in today's television production world yeah really right I mean it's well yeah it's the craigslist it's the craigslist alternative for them you know what what craigslist did to the newspapers because they unraveled the newspapers revenue model you know was devastating and there was no effective response once people you know started to switch over to go into craigslist for classifieds and the same thing holds with these people that they can't if they can't subsidize their production costs or the cost of how much they spend how much they give to the NBA or how much they give to some production studio to build a series for them if they can't get that money from the advertising side then the whole economics of the system you know fall apart just like we seem with print print media as well so it's the same kind of challenge I mean it's a now analogous kind of challenge go go the next slide huh please yeah so of course the social and participatory what we're saying is that people can get very involved they can they can actually you know be tweeting in real-time information that gets sort of synthesized into shows in real-time so you know you could be voting and the American Idol can respond to that sort of thing in real-time but it also can be a slower kind of interactivity like people can get involved with the direction that a series might be headed in over time and also of course the people doing the production start to figure out how in fact to involve and participants into the into the things that they're doing not necessarily you know you know deciding you know which which way things fall in a in a drama or something but getting involved in all kinds of promotional activities and so it's it's transforming the television production side of things but it's also providing a mechanism for all sorts of new information to be provided to people because of what's going on the sentiment analysis of people watching their show for example can be surfaced in real-time and that's that sort of thing is is is just at the really earliest turning point now the direct social thing we all understand you know you're sitting there and you're arguing with your brother about who's going to win the game through text messaging now that's being incorporated into specialized apps that might make it easier than using text but it's analogous to things that we already understand so that part is a little more obvious the the way that it's going to trickle through to the way that production takes place is is going to be more you know unsettling it's going to be a bigger change next distributed marketplaces so instead of instead of having this centralized model we're already seeing some people who are capable of doing it defecting from you know the established you know business models of television so you know Louis CK and other you know really well-known performers can just say I'm going to go direct to my public I'm not going to go through the production series I'm not going to be managed through you know an HBO or a comedy channel kind of a model I'm going to go direct and keep my margins myself and be able to develop a mechanism I go directly to people and and have that benefit me without the headaches involved it turns out that you know people like Louis CK have shed light on the fact that you know doing a special on Comedy Central doesn't pay very much money for the individual it's very good for the channel but it's not very good for the the comics and so going the other way is actually significantly better significantly better and so we're going to see more and more of that happening where people are jumping out and so this there's been some discussions for example that Apple might had might buy the rights to you know Premier League soccer or football as they say outside the United States and that they would take that and distribute that globally if they if if the if the league could actually make more money that way why wouldn't they do it and so it's just a question of can you in fact you know see the economic you know lines go in the right direction where all of a sudden it could be beneficial for an end run around the centralized controlled sort of monopolistic marketplace and I think that the likelihood is combination of factors are going to make it very attractive in the near term for different companies different groups like the NBA or Premier League to jump out and allow somebody like an Apple or an Amazon or a Google to take them over the top worldwide and one of those is the the transition of cord cutters and so on a new study that I I read yesterday actually from Erickson says that cord cutting went up 7% from 2011 to the present day and so in perhaps less than a year we've seen an additional 7% of the population decide to turn off any connection to the cable networks and so the combination of that and a number of other factors could make it financially advantageous and so we'll see this distributed marketplace sort of happen and I have this feeling it's all going to happen at once kind of like what we saw with Apple and iTunes breaking the stranglehold of that the record labels had and they started to see the light of the at the end of the tunnel because they were afraid that you know piracy was you know was killing them and they saw that with Apple they had the opportunity to go back to selling records at least the same thing is likely to happen here but we have a question here from from Jamal Reigns he's asking is the do you think globally present companies will be the first benefit from this new distributed marketplace I guess he means the incumbent globally or not globally present companies like any global presentive company I suppose so what's your thought on that well I think the people will benefit first from these other these large players who could potentially become you know the new intermediaries in a over-the-top world you know the apples Google's Amazons of the world and then there's also a second tier of new software companies who are going to build you know better and more interesting software to run on the second screen to give us that social dimension or you know better advertising or better information options you know out there somewhere there is the Facebook of you know social television to be and it could be it might be Facebook although Facebook has you know been lamentably bad at being mobile so it seems unlikely for them to be that player right away but we'll have to wait and see there is a number of very interesting companies many of which I reviewed in that report I was talking about earlier and we'll send out the links for that tomorrow so people can download it but there's a whole bunch of new interesting players I mentioned Shazam already but there's a bunch of you know get glue for example there's a whole bunch that are doing very innovative stuff and certainly some of those companies are going to do very well by becoming you know one of the market leaders in this space and that they will relatively quickly become global as a result of that although they may be starting in a much more local sense but they will be pushed into global great let's go the next slide huh yep so abundance economics here's a picture of you know the million channels that we were offered you know years ago and when people were talking about the brand new internet of television and so on but it really hasn't happened that way I mean you know most people have access to a few hundred channels or something but it's all locked down in such a way that you know you can't get at what you want the way they're bundling everything and forcing you to buy these packages you can't get what you want the natural unit of television is a show or a series right the natural unit of watching a sporting event is an event and I don't necessarily you know it's artificial to force people to buy 90 channels so that you can get HBO so that you can see you know Game of Thrones and that's all you're interested in so we will see this explosion of opportunities as more and more things are going to be breaking out and going over the top and of course we'll also see more and more activities like you know Netflix building its own series and so on now they're bringing back series that have you know come off all not conventional television we'll see more and more of that and ultimately that'll be a more wonderful experience because we'll have access to a lot of really interesting you know content out there that now is too expensive artificially made too expensive to access next line and the most important thing is we're seeing this transition from a contract content centered universe which is the way that the production companies and the cable companies think about it they have this content they make and they're holding on to it at every transition point making it really difficult for people to get at it except in the way that they want to do things they want to have you watch it on the TV and they want you to watch the commercials and they want to make sure it's locked down and you can't do anything clever with it but it's starting to dribble away it's it's escaping and what we're seeing that the most important aspect of that is this transition to a user centered television universe where it's all going to be about the user experience not just you know the quality of the TV show it's going to be the quality of the experience for the individual who is watching television and socializing and pulling up other supplemental information all at the same time and so the real battle to be fought is on the other device and so it turns out the most compelling number is that when people have access to other devices and are watching television more of them the majority of their time is spent looking at the other device not the dumb TV so people's you know consciousness gets split right we're time-sharing we're time-slicing and we spend more time looking at the other device than the television set and as a result that's where the battle is going to be fought yes we still need to have good quality television shows or high quality sporting events or you know the brightest minds on Sunday morning television arguing about politics but the thing that will determine who is going to get the most eyeballs if you will how much involvement are you going to have with the community of people up there that care about that content it will be determined not just by what goes on on the dumb device in the corner it's going to be based on the quality of the whole experience and that's going to be a very distributed thing because there's going to be many different players and they're not necessarily going to be all orchestrated tightly but there's going to be a real radical shift in how we think about what's going on as a result next okay so there's an answer I bumped over to you a question I mean look how do you build a brand and content awareness in this new digital world well I think it depends on who you are I mean somebody like a Louis CK has a brand and is able to craft a new way to interact with his community of followers if you will somebody like an Amazon you know has a brand and is going to be able to exploit it if you're a if you're a production house you know building a show and trying to get a series out there's a whole lot of alternatives today there are other channels that you can use to get through to people who want to see your your might want to see the the the content that you're creating you don't necessarily have to go through HBO or you know Fox channel or whatever so there's just more and more options and then I think the more interesting is you know the branding of television experience is going to be different because people will take advantage of this new participatory side of television and that opens up a whole new dimension if you will of competition in the sort of the content side of it okay there's another question relates to this from from Jamel Reigns thanks for asking the question Jamel by the way anyone who's out there right now you obviously muted on the microphone but if you want to speak just send a quick message and I'll unmute you but please only if you have a headset the question from Jamel's has why do you think that Apple has been the go-to incumbent when it comes to content creators allowing their content to be distributed with this new shift I take a crack of this real quick stone and bump it back to you basically I think Apple has paid a fantastic game of making the content owners like record labels to start with but also now movie companies believe that there is a way to have a global distribution system but charge more and keep more control than before so this is basically they they've succeeded in playing this role of you know changing it but but without scaring them and looking like a really safe way like in music you know clearly iTunes music sales are not increasing very much and and it's it's a solution for 2% of the population but it has worked and and it's so safe and locked up and secure and and Walt that everybody feels really comfortable but in the end in my view it's not a real solution to the large scale of consumers around the world well I think that's true I mean if you look at it demographically there's no doubt about it if you look at teenagers you know they're they're wandering around listening to YouTube music all the time right they don't they don't necessarily ever quote unquote buy that song you know they simply every time they want to hear it they go to YouTube or they listening to Spotify or something but actually you know young kids the real young kids are doing stuff through YouTube and it's it's kind of fascinating to see that as an alternative and and you know they're amazingly adroit that being able to like get back to the particular thing on YouTube using YouTube search I mean you know this is really kind of annoying when you think about I mean I'm a total Apple fan I buy everything they do I love their stuff right but when you think about the policy of what we can do with the content there it's appalling right I mean it's like you have to be mad to play the game and I do I rent movies there and then they expire after 24 hours and I haven't watched it not a pay again I mean you have 30 days you have 30 days to watch but once you start yeah there's a yeah I mean how crazy can you be I mean you've got to be stupid really to do that but I do it and and because it's it's quality and so on but still you know here's a related question from Gerhard Rettenegger thanks for the question Gerhard he's asking which role will play traditional TV enterprises like the BBC or CNN or AF in Austria in this future of television you just described well I think you know there you've picked sort of you know one of the most conservative edges of this you know this the swarm of things that are happening and moving slowly you know over in one direction and they're going to be some of the slowest simply because you know especially the BBC we less so here in the United States where we have PBS but it's not as well subsidized to say the least you know it's going to be you know they're going to they're going to move at some some pace based on their perceived need to do so rather than you know some entrepreneurial frenzy of activity like we're seeing in the startups in the second screen but you know it's certainly the case you can imagine them having you know innovative new attempts at figuring out how to interact more in a rich way with you know the the greater community of people I just think it's not the place that you're going to see you know the most rapid innovation which honestly is going to come from from my viewpoint is going to come from some combination of you know some very clever person it will wind up let's say being in charge of Time Warner for example and some forward-thinking guy will make some kind of a pact with Amazon to an attempt to try to you know become the dominant player in the space in some clever way and we'll see some really large-scale innovative things but I think in this case you're going to see it sort of as I said a sort of two-phase thing the real big players will innovate some will come through with some new breakthrough kind of notion of how the platform should work and it would allow people to be able to write applications in a smart way so for example imagine if there was a stream of information that came out of a show sort of a data stream that ran in parallel with the show and that data stream included all kinds of information that would make it easy for people to build apps and amplify the user's experience so for example when a new actor walks into a scene on the TV the data stream would it have the actor's name and a collection of information that would allow you to pull information out of a database to put it up on the on the second screen so you could look in that column on your second screen app and see who that that actor is who just walked on stage and said something so if you did that then there would be this clever way for people to build apps because you'd be publishing a whole bunch of information about the what's going on in the show and so the people that figure that problem out and figure out how to do it and figure out how to monetize it and make new money out of it and share revenue opportunities to people like we will give you this information about which Nike sneaker that is if you give us some of the money back for the ads that you're going to show on your second screen app so the clever people that do something like that up will have this big breakthrough and they'll create a new ecosystem of apps that could do wild things I just don't expect that to come from someone like public broadcasting or or the BBC because it's going to be driven by the desire to get in on this new gold rush you know this new new source of advertising revenue. Hey Stowe. Okay I'm here sorry I had it on mute here for a sec I'm going to answer a question I answer the question real quick and then we'll move on we have two more questions here. I would split it up into two things you know public television in my view has a fantastic future in this in this new future of television but they have to get out of there thinking that they have a monopoly on attention because they get paid by taxes you know they the BBC is doing an amazing job in my view and many of the things that they do and it's of course you know because it's it's you know UK rather than say France or Germany or Switzerland where that is part of the DNA you know but but the big incumbents like ABC or CNN in my view I think there there's going to be a lot of innovation that will happen outside of them and being totally impacting them in a very very short time very much like the record labels have not invented Spotify they do own a piece of Spotify now they didn't invent it and of course they couldn't because of antitrust but in my view I think the public TV has a huge opportunity here also to justify the fact that we're paying without taxes but you know the embrace embracing of technology in this whole groundswell of people producing and and connecting and having several devices and stuff I will show my own presentation I think represents a huge opportunity for that to put new meaning into public broadcasting let's move on to the other question here by Wes Madlock do you know if the content providers have much to say in how a viewer views the content or is this a service providers using the Apple 30 days to view it but only 24 hours once you start what is the question yes well of course the the content owners the rights owners stipulate that kind of stuff and it's basically Apple fighting for better rules I think for their users but this is obviously not a high priority rather than to sell their stuff that's how I look at it but it's you know it's sort of like better than nothing kind of right and I I think that into the spectrum is also the sort of most conservative most traditional kind of usage model which is you're renting a single thing you know this one show and it's basically like a DVR and you have to watch it because you're you know DVR is gonna erase it in some period of time but it's the the whole question of rent versus ownership and what ownership actually means even I mean the the the news story this week was I'm not sure if it's true it seems maybe it's a spoof but Bruce Willis was ostensibly gonna sue the Apple because he wants to bequeath his iTunes to his children so and of course it's against the the regulations of your agreement with Apple and they expire when you pass away you don't actually own them in the sense of like owning a hardcover book in your bookcase and so the question of what is it that you really what your rights are as a as a subscriber to these services is really kind of murky and well it kind of it kind of seems to me now then this is really annoying as far as the rights concern instead a lot of major content providers are thinking that on the internet they can get they can give us less rights than before and they can charge more for it and then be better off in the long run and of course that's not gonna happen this ties into the next question from Patricia mollus with young viewers spoiled with good quality free content will premium content models die what are other monetization streams apart from advertising I believe people will pay for what has value and meaning and relevance and and I think that's true whether it's a car or a TV show or a band or an author if we figure that out they will pay for for our high quality content they are gonna be much more demanding and they are much more demanding and I think if we want to sell stuff I have a slide showing this later my view is that we have to do a pay will not a pay wall so we can't force them to pay we have to attract them to pay well least in the States you know our transition has gone far enough ahead now the great majority of people aren't getting free anything and most people in America who watch television are getting it through a cable box and so they're paying it's not free in the typical fee in the U.S. I think it's something like 60 or 70 dollars a month in order to get you know the cable and the basic services and then everything on top of that is all a car because you have meaning you want to buy your package that gives you a ESPN that's gonna cost you another you know chunk of change every month I think we agree on this though I think it's basically privacy to me it's just unmet demand it's not that people are evil or don't want to pay and of course this opens up a huge can of worms here maybe we shouldn't go there but I don't know and the thing you said before about quality you know that the Ericsson study that came out this week you know people are 40% of people are willing to pay more for HD for example if they have a big HDTV they want a higher quality image up there and they're all willing to pay for that and the other thing is of course you know that if you take a deal like Netflix which we don't really get anywhere but the US or maybe I think Brazil or so right that kind of deal is basically you just pay to be part of it and and doesn't matter how much you watch because there's no damage to watching and that model could scale to a billion people just imagine that trend and this kind of model will take off around the world once this this stumbling block is removed of who's allowed to do this I think so was was the last there was your last slide just a minute ago right was okay yes okay so I'm going to go to okay yeah one more question from Drew Chandler again if you want to speak audio just let us know and we'll activate you and we'll hear to what you have to say Drew Chandler is asking at what point if ever will content providers be able to dictate more consumer friendly terms to content owners this is a very good question you mean like a platform owner will be able to dictate more content from yes well I think that point is coming very very quickly because I mean what else are you going to do I mean look at Spotify just as an example you know I'm I'm an avid Spotify user and it's not video but it's sort of a good example you know 32 million users and four million subscribers is not growing fast enough a lot of people want to pull their content out because they say there isn't enough money but if we had done the same thing with with radio for example we wouldn't have radio today you have to have a large model that appeals to 99% of the population and I think content providers and rights holders are starting to understand that they have this elitist models like iTunes which you know because I'm an elite in parenthesis I like right but it just doesn't make sense for the global population so that point is coming very very soon because you can only ignore the consumers for that long right and I think you're exactly you're dead on listen looking at what's happening with music is the best pre-sentiment of what the same kind of sort of erosion of the conventional model so the example again that I point at is how kids get their music from YouTube which costs them nothing and so if if Google figures out a way and they obviously are because they're selling ads they're monetizing you know the access to all those videos that bands want to have out there so that they can make their money by people going to their concerts so the economics of music have shifted so that once again it becomes a user centric experience model because the whole premise now where the money gets made is people going to the concerts what comes down to it comes down a very simple equation that you either want control or you want money it are you going to be able to have both I very much doubt it I think also the other question that what came up early as like is the only money in advertising I believe there's entirely new models coming up in terms of how you monetize content including bundling including e-commerce connected to the content including premiums and specials and high-definition versions and you know Kevin Kelly talks about this and he calls it the new generative so I have a slide on that later but okay save your questions I have to go to full screen now to show my presentation I'll go through it fairly quickly but I can't actually look at the questions at the same time for technical reasons so maybe maybe so I still can't see them either so hold your questions for the next 10 minutes okay I'm just going to go through it and by the way I've just invented a hashtag that hashtag is Gert and Stowe hashtag Gert and Stowe G-E-R-D and Stowe if you want to treat about this we should use that for the next time I'm sure nobody has that hashtag quite yet again put the questions out and fire away 10 minutes and then we'll go to open conversation okay so I'm going to go to full screen now because that stuff okay so I have used two resources for this talk and I will send the links around the Aeroson Consumer Lab TV and video analysis of evolving consumer habits fantastic report and just yesterday the Google multi-screen world report fantastic stuff I'll send the links around but if you Google for this stuff you'll find them no problem or just look at my Twitter feed G Leonhardt and then you'll see them I'm referring to stuff so can you turn off the mic while we're while we're if you ask a question turn it back on okay I think what we're seeing here as though we're saying you know there's there's a new ecosystem in the making I call this a social mobile local cloud the solo more cloud and over the television but the thing about ecosystem as you can see on this nice little image here is that it doesn't work until it's together so if we if we have an ecosystem that is running then it works great for example electric cars if you can't fill them up when you're going down the highway a hundred miles later then there's no ecosystem you won't drive one and we'll have the same problem with over the top and social television content that has to be connected to a whole ecosystem I think 2017 five years from now we're going to have 50 percent more people on mobile internet and a 250 billion dollar advertising market on mobile devices and and digital and that's when we have the whole ecosystem so the fact that the ecosystem is kind of weak right now as you can see with Netflix and Hulu and all that on and YouTube right doesn't mean it won't exist it will but it's in the making so my ETA depending on the territory is between two three five years but developing countries first I think this also means that that it's kind of game over with this idea of living in silos you know there's a content guys there's a tech guys there's a device guys as you can see you know amazon is doing hardware google is doing hardware yahoo is talking about doing hardware and HTC is talking about doing music and software right so game over for the silos very important point I think we're going to see what I call telemedia which is the convergence of telecom and media and that is inevitable that's going to be a lot of disruption as Schumpeter says you know we're living in a Schumpeterian age now I listened to an economist podcast the other day on the audio version of the app which is cool talking about how we have this sort of great creative disruption going on and this is really what it's all about new interfaces I mean being able to talk and have it translated the Siri control for television gesture control right all that stuff that sounds like science fiction that's going to be huge for the future of television imagine that connected to a social TV that is definitely not television anymore right that's like that's almost like telepathy in a way so new interfaces just around the bent right now is still a bit early but worse control yes gesture control absolutely it'll be like minority report pulling up data from the cloud for the average person with a cheap television multi-screen futures the keyword here to me is best screen available and we see this in the reports I have some examples later about how people are easily switching you know watching something on the iPhone then they get home then they switch it to the computer and then they project to the television you know all that kind of stuff is basically best screen available and that really makes a huge difference for content producers also creating what's called cross-media content right and trans-media productions where you're producing on the mobile phone and then using tablets to then switch to television that's going to be absolutely a huge trend also for content creators opening up a whole new job description of trans-media producer which we're seeing around the world now interesting slide here as well I think the future of TV to me if in a nutshell is connecting the crowd with the cloud because all content is moving into the cloud the crowd is there pretty soon will be five billion connected people and they will use all different devices and that's where you know those models come in like Netflix or like Spotify or so you know well let's get 80% of those people connected and there will be plenty of money in subscriptions in advertising in premium in e-commerce right so that's the mission not to disconnect the crowd from the cloud like many people have been trying to do in many countries like initiatives like SOPA and PIPA and ACTA and all the bizarre other paths that we have around the world so TechCrunch has an interesting summary of this that people are using these devices but they're simultaneously using another device so this is the big thing about television it's still on but I'm actually diverted by attention somewhere else regular television unless of course I watch a movie and this is of course a big cultural issue much more ahead in the US in the UK than in Switzerland for example this slide better to download but basically what it shows here is that we have a significant behavioral and cultural change that's in progress is that while we watch TV we're browsing the internet we talk to others in the room which is not new but we're eating that's also not new but we're using social forums to discuss stuff right and and so television is just one of those input channels and I believe that mainstream television and common TV is here to stay but they're going to have to adapt heavily into how this works what we're paying and also the power of the user because we are creating with our comments and our activities and our ratings we're creating meta content that becomes worth gold as you can see with the latest developments with Twitter bottom line by Google from their slides it says TV no longer commands of full attention I think this is what it comes down to I don't know what you think about this though but I think this really nails it television is there people are watching people are not disconnecting by and large yes some of them are disconnecting cable but you know they're viewing another device at the same time well it's it's a it's a fascinating thing if you look at the the pattern of use over time when people initially get access to a technology communications technology like like radio or or TV in the past people would do it as they say rival adversely that means they would give all of their attention to the radio or the television and but what happens is after a while people get habituated to this thing and they're able to drive a car and listen to the radio at the same time for example and so you know the people that are sort of farthest along in this this this curve this transition of splitting you know time slicing on multiple devices are the younger the people are the more likely they are to be doing that and talking at the same time while watching television nominally and it's exactly one of those generational shifts that drives older people crazy to watch television with younger people because yeah it's tweaking and typing and texting and talking all at the same time and the you know grandpa wants to watch the show yeah this is this of course i think it's a whole behavior shift we're going into in this i mean it's television as we know it is dead for this reason not because of economic reasons but because of behavior reasons that we have other things to play attention to if you look at the next slide here right uh just what you said so right now the kids are leading once again if you're looking at these slides these are from Deloitte and GFK which is a global research looking on the left saying that you know the kids i call those kids you know 16 to 34 right they are occasionally and frequently doing other stuff along with their television and on the right it's showing what they're doing is they're browsing the internet for information so they're not actually engaging in the in the program quite yet or participating or actually talking about they're doing other stuff in parallel you know the evil multitasking you could say right but that is going to change i think the participation in the show and the feedback channel is going to explode once we have easier tools right now it's still a little bit on geek territory next one is a little bit convoluted but it's worth for the message the court cutting is what this research says also from Ericsson Consumer Lab saying that court cutting is somewhat happening but it's not big yet it's not really on decline on a global level in a serious way if you're looking at the reasons for reducing the spending on the right the blue box right it says the respondents saying that they have reduced or eliminated television they are quite a few but the box right underneath says that they have increased television subscription right and on the left the green box that gives the reasons to stay right live television easy background viewing habits basically so my view on this is that it's not really that strong yet but it will definitely accelerate and again the lack of the suitable over the top ecosystem is very temporary so guys you know if you you know if you're in the tv business you've got some time to get ready for this at least in the developing countries not in the developed countries not in the emerging countries which i'll show you on the next slide right same for mobile tv mobile tv is taken off but really mostly only where there are fewer alternatives for example in indonesia you can't get on the internet at home because there's no cable so use the mobile and that's where television takes off right and and this is you know if you look at mobile phone subscriptions in china india look at the explosion there that suggested that i think mobile tv is going to be huge but mostly in those places where we don't have devices that are well connected otherwise including there's several barriers there like better life yeah i'm still here good there's a sort of an yeah there's a there's an interesting question which is people are currently have a choke you know there's a chokehold that the cable companies have on us because they're delivering internet to our our houses as well as television and so there's this you know they give you the triple play package here in the us and people get their landline if they still have that and their television and their internet connectivity is a discount if you get all of it from the one service there's a potential breakthrough here where sometime in the not too distant future you can imagine a 5g you know connectivity through your cell phone or your mobile device or all your mobile devices if it really had the bandwidth that could supply it people would be able to jump away from having cable to the house for internet and as a result if they had that defection the whole bundling of stuff together might fail and it's another thing that might lead to the you know end of the sort of monopoly that we have based on you know cable here in the states of course there are there are huge the huge global differences here but by and large you know the telecoms and isps and mobile operators are the ones that have all of the advantages here because basically they can bundle because they're already getting money from people and as i've been saying for a long time they just don't have the balls right now to make a move right but but they will you know they have no choice because if they don't get into this and they start bundling content into mobile they will eventually down compete down to zero right so telemedia is inevitable in my view it will probably not happen in the united states first because for several reasons including legislation but uh next point is a bunch of snippets here and i think the most important is on the right from tech crunch and also from gfk and the ericsson study again is that social and smart television will be led by emerging markets because again they don't have much of an alternative right i mean look at china china is the leader in smart television south korea india you wouldn't have thought that of a nation where there's lots of people living on the street like in brazil there's 40 million people starving right but yet they're the leader in smart television uh and using this stuff so disruption is going to come from those places from emerging countries and we're going to learn from them how that works uh this will should be quite interesting you know again we're saturated we're over legislated we have in america we have more lobbyists than than senators i think there's about 2000 lobbyists lobbying for internet restrictions in the u.s so uh you know that is emerging market turf two more slides and then we'll go to the discussion as i said earlier i think the future of paid content that question came up earlier is about pay will not pay wall taken consumers from prisoners which we are currently prisoners of itunes i'm a happy prisoner but regardless i'm still a prisoner uh to participants right and this is going to be whoever nails that down and who gets the support of the rights owners that's a critical question right that is the mantra for the future there uh kevin kelly said this is the summary you may want to download this when you get the link tomorrow uh it's the new generatives of television there are so many that if i wasn't a television business i would have a very positive outlook on the future but embracing those new generatives is a whole different cup of tea that isn't really tied to the old business models so packaging and interfaces curation social context serendipity discovering stuff personal revenants i mean this this goes on forever just google kevin kelly and new generatives and you'll find stuff that i mostly are just kidding now you find his stuff as well but uh he has a great video there on youtube about this topic okay thanks very much for this uh and before i forget it we'll go back to the discussion i do want to put in a short pitch yes gordon stowe offer workshops and seminars if you're up for it you can certainly ask us okay let's go back here to the uh to the initial panel here okay we have some questions which one should we take first so i don't want to make you dizzy just go back to the thing here okay all right we have some question from uh jamel reince here what do you think needs to happen to the telecom infrastructure for conductivity to the cloud by the crowd to become a more significant reality mainly in the usa that's a very good question you know of course that america is shamefully behind in terms of the speed of the network and that's hopefully being addressed with the broadband initiative i think but right now is everything is a place second fiddle to the election process so i don't know what's your view on that uh stowe well it's it's exactly what you said uh the united states is you know got a relatively you know compared to other advanced economies we have a relatively slow internet here um my hope is that it'll be you know some some you know n run will will happen amazon will decide to go to 5g on on its whisper net service and and with the intention of and running the cable companies and all of a sudden we'll have a gigabit here to whatever mobile device you have that you you know going to attach to their whisper net service right now whisper net is just the thing that they have in their kindles to you know allow you to browse the web or whatever but it's that kind of a breakthrough that we need here in the states because you know they have very little incentive to invest the money to build out i mean Verizon fios for example which is fiber optic to the house you know they've definitely made a deal um you know basically not to really build it out very much they're not they're not interested in spending the money of putting all this infrastructure in the ground so we can have high speed internet aside from where they did instead they decided to make a deal with the existing cable operators and so you know nobody's right now got a very much of an incentive to do much i think the biggest opportunities are strange public private partnerships you know the idea of that municipalities might decide it's a good thing to have high speed internet in order to attract you know industry or innovative companies to be there and they build it themselves and they just say well we we we're going to take it away from the cable companies we're going to build it in like we like we own the electric company or whatever um and all the water in you know in in the city so i think those kinds of things would be the kind of challenge that we would need in america to get get this out of the hands of the people that have very little incentives to speed it up well i think you know my my view is that we're going to see a lot more disruption from google for example putting out more google fiber because google is being impatient about that not being good enough we're going to see a competition by likes of huwei you know currently it's more or less blocked of doing business in the u.s because they're from china but we're going to see a lot of these things and of course one thing is that it's just like you know you have so many people lobbying for the freedom to carry 50 guns in your backpack in in in washington uh that you have the same problem here you know you have lobbyists who lobby for that stuff to be better for them but not for the public uh and and you know if you watch larry lessick talking about what's happening with corruption in washington uh then then you know you can only pull out your hair but i think some of those things are related to those issues other ones are basically like what happened here in switzerland people just refuse to buy the deal unless it was better and just three months ago swiss come for the first time ever caved in and offered a flat rate because people weren't buying anymore so you sort of vote with your wallet there well i think we'll have some we'll have some other that pressure here as i say there's a point of disruption where the economics of the existing systems start to not work because people start defecting and you talked earlier about cord cutting but the biggest threat in the united states is the cord never's the kids that just have never paid a cable bill and just aren't going to yeah that's that's not gonna increase and they'll just they'll unrun everything they'll use all these you know live streaming services i mean that generation of kids just doesn't want to buy anything they don't want to buy cars they don't want to buy clothes um and uh you know they're not going to pay for televisions so at least not the way it's configured or for the reasons that cable the existing cable and tv production companies think that they should i mean you only have to take a look towards asia to see how this is playing out right i mean the most popular site in in indonesia for for television for music is four shared which is essentially a pirate up on download site in russia it's it's uh what is it um the friends network um v-contact right is where you can get all the tv shows and stuff right i mean basically to look at the future of content and especially television you know if we look towards asia and some of the emerging countries in india and brazil and africa and in in nigeria and you know we're going to see that happening there for us because clearly the need is there right uh another question here from patricia malz um you know who's going to own the customer she's asking the conversations with various telecos they want to be the gatekeeper and get a lion's share of revenues well my my quick take on that is basically we're moving to the end of this idea of that that because you can then you will dominate and you'll just keep your finger on it it just won't work anymore because there's there's too much you know it's it's it's an ecosystem now right i mean basically very much like you know one of my new projects is a book called from ego to eco and and it's uh it talks about this you know how we have to move to to a networked approach uh to me the telecos have been sitting on the money and shuffling 300 million dollars worth of sms into their bank accounts every single day but that's going to end sms will eventually end or more or less not grow and and they're going to have to get with the program and this is one of the things i think that's going to be a deep change well the big the the fundamental social answer to that question is you know the question once again is who's going to own the the customers um in a fully socialized model the customer owns themselves you know they they make in in like you know their their choices for what they want to do and all of the reasonable alternatives are available you know it's an open marketplace and and so things will not be dominated by cartelish behavior or collusion in a marketplace like a cartel instead it'll be open and then things find their value and price based on you know supply and demand we're switch we're switching clearly to a user-centric model instead of contra-centric model and you know it the reality is it's very threatening to the established players because you know they don't understand how it's going to work i mean if the other hand it's it may actually be just as good for them if you jump far enough ahead into the future but they to jump far ahead into the future they would be so reconfigured they wouldn't actually seem like at the same companies anymore well if you look at what's happening right now is it's quite clearly that we're going from this idea of owning or controlling the customer to sort of earning their trust right and and this is what companies like Facebook and Twitter set out to do whether they can do it is a different question i mean look at Facebook for example clearly Facebook has refused a lot of advertising that's completely disruptive this is why GM left by the way because they wanted to have really disruptive ads right and Facebook has the user experience in mind and now the stock market is punishing them for this change of paradigm in my view is a punishment for because Facebook is the poster child for that new idea of earning trust rather than locking people up even though they they have tried that as well but now we can see i think that this this paradigm shift to owning the customer to earning their trust is basically everywhere uh and i just wouldn't hold Facebook as an exemplar of trust building in no no no absolutely not this is this is the only way forward for them right this is that this is the biggest problem that Facebook has if if they are successful at keeping my trust and earning it and giving something back then their stock is going to go through the roof they'll be very successful right well they have the same demographic problems that the people we're talking about now is you know the fastest growing you know tranche on Facebook nowadays is the 55 and older crowd or you know people trying to do things in in in distant lands but you know Facebook hasn't figured out how to capitalize on what it has as you know a being a platform with you know hundreds of millions of people going there every day and and perhaps worse they're starting to see a defection of the younger folks who now think of Facebook as being less interesting than it was a few years ago you know we're seeing you know that's that's a significant problem for them because if they're no longer hip then they could they could lose it they could lose you know their advantages very quickly yeah but i i think that you know that is is a very cruel reality for Facebook now you know if they go down to $15 or so this is pretty much where they should be in my point of view but you know this doesn't mean that their model is is not realistic it just has never been done before right they have to invent all that stuff and it's this is really sort of the cruel reality but let's not talk about Facebook too much as a question here from from Gerhard Rednecker about the programs like news that need the attention of the audience what is the future of news in television that's a tremendously interesting question i think i think you know we're it's such a strange world right now with the nature of what news means relative to entertainment i mean it's it's almost you know some of these networks it's impossible to say that they're actually news networks they're they're you know they're propaganda machines or whatever so it's very odd but leaving that you know sort of political dimension of it aside we're at a time when things could change very dramatically in that space so that for example news or reporting on activities of things that are going on you know now or today or in the last five hours that's really been savaged by things like twitter and facebook to the lesser extent as the place where things seem to break uh the news breaks you know that that famous weekend where you know the arab spring was starting to break out and cnn was playing like reruns they were playing old footage of you know some sporting events they completely missed this thing as it was breaking so it's clear that the combination of you know new social tools and the the is is a collision or is is undermining in a sense sort of conventional news reporting and that's you know no no kind of brilliant insight but the the notion of who is it that is going to most quickly most adroitly take advantage of things like you know social sentiment analysis for what's going on in the world right now and reporting on that right now is a fascinatingly interesting thing and really hasn't been done very well at all right you know i think that the news thing is quite clearly the the conversions of web and of the web and television and mobile that's the future of news and and you know the only reason that i watch cnn sometimes because they use twitter otherwise i prefer ljazeera because they already they are already doing that right so web television mobile conversion that that's the key the other things of course curation because yes i can get the news on twitter but the curation is tough i mean i have to know how to do that right um i think this is where news television has a huge opportunity to be real time to be social to be connected to have a flat hierarchy but with great expert ship i mean there's nothing worse than having this huge pipeline of 50 000 opinions raining down on you when it's about an important real-time event right but uh yeah curate curation is certainly a very hot area and has you know it's it's attractive to me conceptually to imagine that i would tune into some show maybe from aljazeera for example which is one of the few things i have on my iphone and i would be getting like uh here are the five video clips about things happen today that you really want to watch while you're standing in line at the bank right and that that kind of capability is is something that is you know my in the print world of print journalism i've come to rely deeply on people out of those kinds of curators you know here's the Atlantic wires five things you have to read today i read that religiously every day but the equivalent thing in television content just really hasn't happened yet and it's because television thinks of itself um as producing new original stuff and they and they don't think enough about the notion of it being a curatorial potentially a curatorial medium well they think of themselves being the center of what they do right so so yeah rather than being uh you know the platform of where it happens so i think this is the biggest thing anyway uh we gotta head towards the end here we're gonna do a short poll don't sign off quite yet there is a very cool poll here uh and uh whoop let me see uh okay you pulled results that's great okay the poll is closed that's fantastic that's hilarious okay uh well i i pulled it too early so you can't say anything you you could just take a look at my answer you know will we watch most of our tv over the top is what i've asked and then i had various answers but you can't vote anymore because i messed it up too early so i will know better about this next time okay we're gonna put this stuff up on youtube again my my uh web address media futurist.com and also as of late gert futurist.com i'm on youtube and geelyonhardt on on twitter and sto is worktalk.ly right yep okay and of course we are both members and participants in the futures agency which is a global outfit for doing stuff workshops seminars and speeches and think tanks and all that stuff so you can gladly at any time give us all your money and we'll give us all we'll give you all our knowledge if that can be arranged thanks very much for being part of this anything else anyone anyone want to take the microphone or no i think you know we're dwindling down here there's a big thank you yes thank you as well and uh we hope to do more of this in the future so check out your email okay the next couple days you'll get the results of this thing thanks very much so also for for being part of this and yeah we could talk for the next 20 hours you know not that we could convert that much video in one place but um really appreciate all of you dialing in and uh please spread the word and we'll talk to you down the road thanks very much