 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessTrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is having a great weekend. It feels like a while. I haven't been with you guys. It's actually only been one week. Last week there was no video for all you guys, obviously, who follow us in our community. Obviously, no, for those of you guys don't, my son took silver in the take window on national championships for his weight class. So I was out last weekend and hopefully everybody had a good week trading with much, much less volume. We'll talk about that in a second. So let's talk about the market, right? Let's talk about the market. Let's talk about how a trader in its infancy stages can kind of adapt to what's going on here. I think the reality that a lot of traders kind of, they pick up things and they run with it without a lot of bias. People talk about how market makers control the market, which is ridiculous. It's basically somebody picked up that information around with it. Market makers have been relevant in years, in absolute years. Most of them, I would say the majority of them don't even trade for their books anymore. It's 23 year old kids taking orders from retail customers. A lot of it's nonsense. I think the myth of summertime trading. People say the market's dead in the summertime. Just leave, just forget about it. Come back after Labor Day. I think that's a myth as well. The first month of June, and again, summer really starts off June the 21st. Once June hits, I consider the summer. Once like 80, 85 degree weather hits pretty much all into the idea at summertime. 21st of June is just a calendar. We saw one of the more aggressive Junes that I can remember. Beta was very, very strong. The IPO game was just really off the charts. Probably one of the strongest IPO cycles. I can remember it in a very, very long time. You had stocks like RVLV, had big, big runs, RVLV, a Chewy, and Adaptek ADPT, which again, for all you old farts out there, if you guys remember, Adaptek ADPT used to actually be a semiconductor. How quickly time flies. Now it's a biotech. But the more important part is, I think when you're a new trader, and one of the myths that you hear is, well, 90% of the traders don't make money. I think it's false. I'm pretty confident to say that's false because I think the statement is, and the factual comments of that statement should be, it's not that 90% of traders lose money. It's 90% of the traders trading their first two years make, lose money. It's just the reality. Once you are getting in your comfort zone, that light bulb clicks, and you really find your little niche, whatever your niche is, however you decide to put stakes in the freezer. Options, E-minis, crypto, pivots, beta, small caps, mid caps, whatever you want. I think once you find your niche, and you start getting into a moral, like a really boring lethargic state of mind, and all it's taking you every single day, it's like this way of trading that's like literally waking up in the morning, brushing teeth, very, very systematic. That's when you start really becoming a trader. That's when you really appreciate the struggle and how long and how much effort really took to get to that point. So I think the reality is because new traders, especially in this whole social media time, right, a lot of the millennial crowd is waking up and they're, again, like we talked about so many times, are consuming so much bad information. I think that's where the 90% lie because if somebody keeps on telling you 1 plus 1 equals 4, 1 plus 1 equals 4, and all you keep on doing is digesting that information at 1 plus 1 equals 4, I don't care how many years you're going to be trading, you're going to be part of that 90%. It's so important to digest good information. So for example, when somebody is talking about buying a stock, and I'm looking at it and they're buying the stock into supply, I know they're going to be wrong. I know 99.5% of the time they're going to be wrong. And the one time that they make money off that trade, they don't think it's normal and they're going to continue making the same pattern. So I think what the market has seen is so many different myths and all these different things. And the most important part is, unfortunately, new traders because of the plethora of bad information out there, there's so much out there, they keep on digesting the same bad information over and over and over again. And the one thing that they do talk about that there is some truth. Again, I said June was very, very aggressive. This week has been, this week I only traded, basically I traded one day. I was fighting, I don't know what the hell I had. I caught some sort of virus on the plane. It took me like three days to get back to normal. But this week was slow, from what I understood from the people I speak to, this week was slow. And because people take vacations, people go away, people travel, taking advantage of the 4th of July holiday, you're going to run into cycles that are very, very lethargic. And the range is contract. And it's so important, especially in your first two years, to really understand and take advantage of intervals that are very, very strong. So for example, the last quarter of the year generally is very, very strong. There's a lot of volume. There's window dressing. A lot of people are positioning for the following year. So you're going to have a lot of market participants. A lot of market participants always leads to really, really good volume structure. When you have a market, when you have a market that's the 4th of July, the week of the 4th of July, then everybody goes away. Because it's a holiday weekend, you're going to run into contraction channels. It doesn't make a difference what the news is. You saw this week a bad jobs number, for example, on Friday, and nobody cared. Nobody was around. Nobody was around to crush the market. The market went down and the market went right back up. And if you look at the technical view of the market, the market's very, very healthy. And again, it's just the old theory of if the tree falls in the forest and nobody's around to see it fall, does it really make a sound? And that's exactly what the market is at periods in the summertime. So there is some truth that there is going to be some downtime, but overall it is based on your approach. It's all based on your process and your ability to kind of recognize when to step on the gas and kind of when to play the background and wait for some good value. And the most important part is when you're a new developing trader, you really have to pick up these things very, very quickly. Because if you don't, you're going to be trying to drive 100 miles an hour in a traffic jam. And again, like I've been saying, I don't care if you're driving a $2 million Bugatti. You're stuck in Times Square and midtown rush hour traffic. You're not going anywhere with that high performance vehicle. So it's very, very important just to kind of pick up on these intervals very, very quickly. Just understand when it's time to push, when it's time to kind of scale back, when it's time to digest. Because again, guys, remember, not only are you fighting market participants or you're fighting people on the other side of your process and the other side of your approach, you're also fighting reality, right? You're also fighting downtime. You're also fighting areas of the market that as much as you try to, you know, try to trade and try to get aggressive, you can't squeeze water out of a rut. So it's very, very important to kind of, you know, decompress at times, even when you're on a good hot streak. And I know a lot of traders, they usually take time off when they kind of get burnt out. You can get burnt out and still be on a very, very good streak. It's so important to keep your mental edge because everything we do, I'll say 85, 90% of what we do is so mentally intense that when you do have an opportunity like a Fourth of July or a Labor Day or a Memorial Day, take those times off. Again, you know, for the times that you trade Amazon, it goes $30 ranges, average to range $47 a day, you're going to have times like Fourth of July, like Labor Day, like Memorial Day, that Amazon will be trading a $3 cycle. Again, same stock, right? Same stock, same approach. But again, it's impossible to squeeze water in a rut. You have to recognize that keep your mental edge, right? Keep your mental edge. Take some time off. The market will always be here, okay? The market will always be here. But the most important point is keep your mental reserve. So yeah, I traded only one day this week. I came back. I came back Wednesday. I did okay. I think I traded on Netflix, something else. I can't remember far back. Thursday we were off and Friday was pretty dead. I mean, we had a couple of pivots, a couple of pivots, one with Tesla, one with KPTI, a couple of bounce plays, a couple on Facebook, I believe, was Facebook and something else. I just can't remember. Facebook and Tesla, Facebook and Tesla. But it was very, very slow, okay? Very, very slow. A lot of people away. And if you look at the macro view, okay? We're all time highs, okay? We're in a really big V-shaped recovery. I think market structure right now is very, very solid. I like the bull case. I mean, it's very, very tough to argue against the bull case. You have the nonstop open-ended China negotiations, which are not going away. But again, the market is okay with them. That's how we go higher. We're talking about a potential of cutting rates. Okay. Does that sound really healthy? No. But again, raise your hand. Who wants to pay higher rates, right? On your mortgage, on your car payment, on your student loans, on your credit card, right? So for the consumer, right? For the consumer, at least that's good, okay? So there's not a lot that you can, if you're a bear, if you're a perma bear, there's not a lot you could turn around and say, well, the market should be going lower. You know, okay, I should be six foot four and dunking backwards and playing the NBA. You know, what should be, what realities are two different things? And I think we're in such a very, very stock-specific market that we have the luxury as traders. And I don't care what type of trader you are. We have the luxury right now as traders to really pick our spots. Like, during, like, 99 and 2000 when the dot-com craze was going nuts, right? Nuts and nobody knew how to trade. Everybody's making money, but nobody knew how to trade. There were 10, 15, 20 things going on at one time. We don't have that luxury anymore, okay? The guys that I know, and even including myself, you know, we used to trade a lot of volume. Even going back to as early as 2004, we were doing a lot of volume every single month. And our volume has been basically cut the third because, again, you don't get that value anymore. You don't have that monster ability that you can trade seven to 10 stocks a day. These days, if you're getting two to four really good plays throughout the day, that's a solid day. Anything above that is kind of a cherry on top. And the fact that, you know, I'm a very, very specific trader now, okay? I don't trade the broader market anymore. I trade pretty much 90% of everything I do is the same nine stocks. I have a very, very good luxury to kind of pick my spots and wait for them to set up perfectly. If not, there is no trade. So, again, I think there are tendencies in this tape that you could take advantage, get aggressive, but it's so specialized now. You really, really have to pick your spots and really understand the dynamics that every single day might not be that A plus setup. Hell, you might not even get a B plus setup. But again, maybe you won't do something Monday, maybe you won't do something Tuesday, but you have to have the patience. You have to have the adult sentiment in your brain. You have to put yourself in a situation that you're mature enough to say, okay, I might not make money today. I might not make money tomorrow because there's no value. You know what? Wednesday will come along. I'll get that green light and truly try to knock it out of the park. So, let's talk about the tape really quickly. Again, all-time highs, very, very stock-specific market, low interest rates, China, all that good stuff. Good market, right? Good, good market generally. Again, June was great. Start of July wasn't really, you know, really wasn't trading for the first week because I was away. But again, I like what I'm seeing. Okay, I really do like what I'm seeing. Even stocks that have one big move, okay, they're not selling off. They're not giving anything back. That means sellers are very, very comfortable. So for example, when you look at a stock like Amazon, right? You look at a name like Amazon had that big, big recovery, right? Big, big recovery, just like everything else kind of came in, reclaimed the 10-day moving average. And you can see how tight the ranges are, right? You can see how tight these candles are. And it's just kind of melting up. Even though it's not doing anything intraday, it's kind of melting up. When you look at Square, for example, that's a name like I really like going into this week. And you can see why. Again, same kind of scenario. Had a big, big run. They attempted to sell off and just been kind of moving up on very, very tight increments. So what does that mean? It's not maybe an advantageous scenario out of 9 out of 10 days to trade these stocks. Okay, unless you have very, very specific plays like bounce plays or rejection plays that we have in live webinar. But again, it really does show how sellers are very, very comfortable in this market. And unless we get a really aggressive macro headline, you have to assume for now, things change out of time, but you have to assume for now. Okay, we're going to continue to kind of melt up for the rest of the summer. Okay, until after, until after Labor Day, whenever kids go back to school and people come back from a vacation and all that good stuff. And then you see a pretty aggressive market expansion going into the four quarter. So let's talk about Friday again, very, very slow day. As you can see, I mean, again, guys, we don't, you know, we don't pick and choose. These are the pivots. Okay, these are the pivots. We don't pick and choose. Sometimes they're incredibly aggressive. And if you've been watching these weekend updates of mine, sometimes you can get like four or five, six really, really aggressive pivots. And then market specific, you're going to have a very, very sometimes slow contracting day. And those are the days like I mentioned before, you have to be really, really mature enough to say, hey, you know, it's not, I'm not acting on a position of weakness. I'm acting in a position of strength to only pick and choose and take what I need to. And again, we want to trade, right? Most of you guys want to trade, but you don't have to trade. And that's the psychology behind the longevity part. So let's talk about Friday again, not a lot going on, right? Not a lot going on. What I like, what I saw was again, gap down on the jobs numbers and the futures just came right back up again. There's no selling pressure because again, there is nobody around. That's the whole theory of the market kind of continuing to melt up into the rest of the summertime. So let's talk about the pivots. This is it. This is all it was. And you can see my, you can see my comments, right? This is at 820 in the morning, expecting a low volume type range day. No surprise. Value will be in the bounce plays on strong names off the rise in 60 minute support. That's what we saw in, that's what we saw, especially in Facebook. We saw that in Facebook and Tulo in the live webinar. I forgot what else we had us. But anyway, that's kind of the point. Any pivots on beta will be for quick scouts. I can't imagine ranges will expand today. Most traders taking advantage of the holiday use second entries of all pivots, which basically means, you know, take, see the pivot, see the pivot trigger, let it rally or decline, depending on which way you're trading it, let it come back on the second entry through that number is the entry. So again, only couple of pivots here, Tesla 233.50, 233 for builds below can flush again. You know, Tesla very, very, very disappointing, you know, very disappointing. The last couple of sessions from that really, really big news. Okay, at least they look like big news. But again, it just kind of the client, just kind of the client, kind of the client. And here was the 233.50, right? 233.50, 233. And again, I knew there wasn't going to be a monster move, right? I said 23 points tops. And again, here's the 233.50 and went down to 233.80. So you guys took it again, you're not going to get an expansion $5 candle if the if the if the range is a contract. And again, well, you guys took that good job there. Facebook, I still like it. Didn't come close to the 9750. Although I really like the recovery from I really like the recovery from the morning, SY and never got close to 16. Adaptek ADPT, I still kind of like the name. Adaptek, you know, we talked about that 40 areas, 3970, I believe it was 3970, right? 3970, 40 needs to build. Again, here's the 3970, right? Here's the 3970 and built over, and it went to 4060. Again, is it the biggest move in the world? No, everybody's used to and spoiled about all these IPOs that are running up three, four, seven, $12 a day. But again, when there's nobody around to defend or push prices, you're going to contract and channels again, understand the dynamics of what you're trading. But again, if you took this trade, good job there as well. BYND, it held the bottom of the range. It's very, very important. I liked it if it broke that 147 level it held, which we'll talk about that in a second. I really, I started trading now beyond the good handful of times now. I really liked the way it's starting to trade. If you guys remember the first like month was trading crazy seven $12 candles. I like the fact now that the measure potential for the average candle is like $1.5, $2. Why is that good? It's starting to remind me of Tesla, right? It really is starting to remind me of Tesla in its early stages. It's already a hated stock. It's already watched by majority of the traders on a day-to-day basis. It's hated right now. It's still very, very tough to borrow. I know some platforms do have it, some clear firms do have it, but it's generally pretty hard to borrow. Once it becomes easy to borrow, I think this has the potential to be the second coming of Tesla. Obviously not company-wise, but strictly the way it trades. I see so many same characteristics in the name and it's trading pretty orderly. As it goes up in price or it comes down in price, it keeps on trapping the other contra part of the trade. I'm just waiting to see what happens on the next new cycle, on the next PR, how the market handles it. Guys, remember, markets love to pay for potential. This one is really starting to set up like a potential Tesla in the making. I like the way it held that 147 level bottom of the range. You can clearly see visually, again, you don't need to be an expert chartist to kind of see this. We've got a clear definition here, right? Clear definition at the top of the range and a clear definition at the bottom range. One of these ranges will get confirmed and if you look at the daily chart, this upper level gets confirmed. This 10-day moving average gets confirmed, which I believe is probably one of the stronger setups known as the birth of the trade. Once this channel gets confirmed, if it does, look at which room you have. You have room all the way to the upper channel here, 177. This will be very, very interesting to watch, but I do like the way it held that 147 level. 382 obviously on Netflix never got there. And like I said, everything here, take cash flow and everything say will be super tight, use second entries, blah, blah, blah, blah. And here's another example. This one never triggered as well. Here's a perfect example that you don't need to trade beta to trade pivots. You just don't. KPTI had nothing to do with beta, right? And again, as long as the stock has range and as long as the stock has volume, you can trade it as a pivot. Anything goes, but again, it has to have a range and it has to have a lot of volume. So here's a perfect example. KPTI, and I know a lot of you guys were trading this thing, I guess on Wednesday and Tuesday, whatever it was. But 930 held twice if the builds below can flush. And here is KPTI, right? Again, there's only six candles of the day. Okay, folks, there's only six candles of the day. One, two, one, two, three, four, five. And the last one was the death blow. And you can see it visually. You can see it. 930 was the low here. 930 is the low here. 932 is the low here. So once it started building below 930, and I talked about it on social media. I said, look, this thing builds below 930. It's going to flush. It's a very, very high probability. It's going to flush. And you just saw it just really, really come in and just stock out hit. Got stock out really, really hit. One is down. One is actually low to 836. So it's much easier if you look at it visually. It's much easier to look at a chart on a 60 minute view, right? There's only five, six candles. Then this one minute chart, there's so many, again, what can you decide? What can you get out of this one minute cycle? Social media has just really put down your throat. You have to trade on the one minute cycle. What can you gauge off this one minute cycle? What can you process? There's just so much information that's so much noise and lack of information that you can't understand what's going on. Again, and I say this for a long time, whether you trade pivots or not, kind of irrelevant. If you are trading the one and five minute cycle and you're not getting anywhere, just try the 60 minute challenge. Just try it. Just switch your view from one minute to 60 minute. I'm telling you, you will be shocked and the results that you'll get. It has nothing to do with this PS60 theory. It's just the area of concentration, switching intervals from the one to 60 minute view. Hopefully that helps you guys a little way. Going into this week, going into this week, again, I'm bullish until I'm not. Any trades to the downside will be nothing more than small scouts. The value continues to be, in my opinion, value continues to be on bounce place instead of short intervals. Again, I just think there's more value. There's just not enough selling pressure to get from point A to point B, especially if you are a permable bull. Let's get into some ideas that I do like, some macro ideas that I do like. I like Facebook. You saw some pretty good coal buying that I noticed the 200 coals. The 200 coals are pretty active. Pretty basic view here. The 52 week high is 9850. Obviously, that will be a very, very good macro point of interest. Obviously, if it fails it, it's not going to go lower in the top. But if it starts reclaiming, starts building, you could get a nice move on Facebook. If you're an aggressive trader, I kind of like this 9750 level. 9750 is a good, I don't want to call it a cheat level because the previous day is high, but you can see the channel here. But it really, really needs to break and set and reclaim this 9850 for a potential move. I kind of like Roku. Roku is very, very strong on Friday. If you look at the 60 minute view, and this is what I mean, stocks trade from supply, right? From supply to supply. Everybody see how it just kind of hugging supply, right? If it starts building above the supply zone, you could get a test back to 100. So let's keep an eye on Roku. I like square, pretty basic chart. I mean, pretty basic chart here. This is a 7460 level needs to build. Nice looking chart there as well. Let me see what else I want to talk about. Netflix is starting to get into a really, really good macro channel. If you look at the weekly chart of Netflix, take a look guys. If you look at a weekly chart of Netflix, you can see how it's getting really close, like really busting out. I know there was some 385, 390 calls. I think people are positioning ahead of earnings. So this is something definitely, definitely want to watch. The sneaky area here is the confirmation of this channel right here, roughly around the 382 for a possible measure potential to 386 and Y86. It's important because that was the last high on the weekly confirmation. So we're going to keep an eye on that as well. And yeah, I want to watch beyond. I want to watch beyond a very, very tight channel. You either have this 147 range to the downside or this like 54, 55 range to the upside. And if this channel, I'm telling you, if this channel confirms and starts building, there's a potential 154, 155. There's a potential for you guys are trading on the option side or trading or swinging it. There's a potential that you could, you could see a measure potential 166, even 177 on a multiple day run. So we got our game plan for Monday. Okay. Again, we're patient, we're adults, we're mature. Sometimes you have to, you know, you have to look in yourself in the mirror and say, am I doing everything possible to put myself out of the line of fire? Okay. Again, when things can track, the last thing you want to do is keep pushing, pushing, pushing, you will get nowhere. So you will have a lot of effort to make absolutely little money and you will burn brain cells, you burn mental equity and that you don't get back. So we have our game plan for Monday. Buy bias is on the table for now or obviously anything to switch, but for now we are by biased buying dips on strong names, waiting patiently for confirmation channels and seeing what the market gots confirmed. All right guys, have a great remainder of your Sunday. God bless. And I will see you all in the field tomorrow. Take care guys. Have a great day. Congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading. You're one step closer to owning your future and achieving the success you desire. Want daily trade ideas directly from Dan? Straight off his personal watch list? Unlock our free PS 60 vault where you'll get nightly updates on pivot opportunities we're watching for the next day's session. Click the link in the description to get started today.