 Okay, good morning. It is Wednesday the 18th of March for now still broadcasting from the office in London But we will do our uploads to continue Doing our sessions should be even need to do this from home One thing to give you a heads up though The plan is that we will be moving these regular morning briefings offline into a private room So stay posted for more details on that But we still will be publishing regularly content in a much more shorter form on our YouTube channel. So please do Leave us some comments any ideas on things that you'd like to see do let us know but before I begin obviously every day it almost feels like this The situation is becoming ever more real for I'm sure you're the same people you talk to friends and family. So obviously, I'll try to be as Sensitive on the issue as I can but it's still the biggest dominating thing. There's nothing else really to talk about but the overall growing threat of a global and potentially Severe recession that we're facing now on the back of the reality of what this is going to mean economically as it's going to most likely get worse before it gets better and In terms of what's happening now as you can see from the headlines to the side of me is a number of coordinated pretty unprecedented really since war times amount of government Spending that's going to have to take place in order to offset and try and get ahead of this impending downturn That's going to face every nation on the planet pretty much And this was the main one coming out of the US last night. I'm sure you probably would have seen And just yeah the clothes on Wall Street. We were up over a thousand points on the Dow The Trump administration discussing a plan that basically amounts to about 1.2 trillion dollars in spending including direct payments to US American consumers of a thousand bucks within the next two weeks that they were saying however I will put a caveat on that in a second The administration have been discussing a total aid package of about eight hundred billion But later discussions then that number went up to that north of a trillion dollar level Although this isn't yet concrete ironclad confirmed at this point To give you an idea Congress back in 2009 This was in the immediate aftermath of the collapse of markets during the global financial crisis to combat that they did also Take this step of sending out these kind of stimulus checks But to give you a historical precedence from the time of signing the bill to actually getting those checks issued Took two months So this idea that they can do it in two weeks I'd say is incredibly challenging But here Len lies the problem is that you know businesses most likely are going to have to take quite Radical and immediate action, which means that people again could face Unemployment within a matter of days weeks which Comparative to the speed of which these checks are going to go out This is then you could take this up a few notches the same for businesses Although as we're going to discuss the UK government is talking about government-backed loans The idea the problem here is the ability to get access and approval to those loans in time before these companies basically go out of business And that's the worrying threat and the reason why markets most likely will continue to trade with this very Fragile and risk-off kind of sentiment overall I mean at the moment what we're looking at here is a market still a little bit Filling the aftermath of that that those big headlines coming up the US yesterday Obviously, I did fire up US equities But as we've seen with other measures on the monetary side the gains in terms of longevity Particularly short-lived US stock futures already limit down However on that point. I would just Say that the limit down nature of US equities No, this is let me just make this bit bigger US stocks have gone limit down Every session for the last five sessions. I should say limit down I should say they've gone limit level one whether up or down every session So it's becoming less and less kind of a real Shock and all type thing now. This is just a regular way of which the the current market is is performing at the moment Another interesting statistic you might see me share on Twitter, and I'm not saying that This is going to happen today But it is a quite interesting observation that I saw and it was the fact that the S&P 500 has started each day Moving in the opposite direction from the previous day's late-day move every day for the last two weeks And so what this data would basically suggest that given we ramped up into the close on the fiscal package We're going to sell off the following day And we are seeing that already in the case of the futures But then if we tank today and particularly in the last half an hour That means we rally sharply tomorrow is essentially what the data is telling you over every session of the last two weeks We're looking at the S&P 500 over those time frames Elsewhere just jumping back to this idea of stimulus Wrapping up the US individual taxpayers Maybe getting a deadline extension on paying their tax up to one million dollars corporations might get Tax deferrals up to ten million dollars over in the UK We had the Chancellor come out so after issuing the budget which had its own kind of coronavirus related Emergency package that's been added to basically and let me just run you through some of the details Ministers are promising to help with mortgage payments support for airlines shops the hospitality industry 350 billion pounds of government back loans grants and tax cuts for struggling companies that does equate to about 15% of GDP So prior to the Trump coming out and kind of pledging this trillion dollar package The UK one actually was the biggest pretty much seen in the world as a proportionate of the country's GDP You know the UK government has done pretty much more than anyone in terms of the amount of money that they're willing to spend To offset this downturn So again as I mentioned it did talk about things like a three-month mortgage payment holiday for borrowers But that would be again contingent on affected Or those most affected by the virus and again, this is where it's about how quickly Can the government really convey the details and also unleash this promised cash Which is going to be the real crucial point on how severe this economic recession could be The fear being that it's not quick enough and that will amplify the fallout and it's almost a vicious Cycle where the more people then unable to do that more businesses shut the more unemployment There is and then that spills out and starts to manifest itself The Bank of England have said it will set up a lending Facility for affected businesses. You've had overnight the Federal Reserve have done the same thing So adding to their emergency slashed to rates to zero the 700 billion QE The Fed have come out and talked about opening an emergency lending program for the primary dealers again Remember what I was talking about yesterday Trying to avert a financial crisis in a sense of all banks having a lack of liquidity Which would then put a risk a systemic risk to the system which could make this almost a catastrophic event Not just an economic One of significance. So here primary dealer credit facilities They'll offer overnight and term funding with maturities up to 90 days That facility will run for at least six months You know when and with all of this that I'm saying what I would say is that As you can see this situation is evolving day by day Governments are having to provide more information and more firepower same with central banks every day I would expect that to continue now question I had yesterday is well, when is the market going to hit this eventual bottom and I would say the defining factor What's moving all this of course is the virus. So really it's about now that the you know, there's lots of different simulated kind of Number modeling that they've done with the breakouts in various different geographic regions of the of COVID-19 and and basically It's the trajectory of these these cases as we've seen in in places like Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan South Korea China Generally starting to level off and I think really it's about this exponential growth of the disease or the The pathogen at the moment which in the UK is is growing rapidly It's in that early phase of basically doubling every 24 hours It's when that starts to shallow as a trajectory. I think when markets might start to see a little bit of Reassurance at least that we're getting towards some idea of close to the peak The problem is at the moment We're right in the darkest part of the moment, which is the complete uncertainty and that then feeds the The rationale of the consumer of that become fearful and stockpile and that again makes the whole situation somewhat worse So yeah in terms of that that telling point of when is it going to be? The bottom I think if you were going to watch that sort of thing you'd need to look at then The rate of growth across these other major and Western areas and in the interim period. It's about then The confinement measures that are taken by governments You saw yesterday France now unless you actually have a letter of proof showing that you need to travel basically for more Urgent reasons, let's say that know your doctor or nurse working at the hospital or something of that nature Then they have put a hundred thousand more police on the street. I'm not sure that was just in Paris, but then What that meant is that they can now find you they can question you any proof So real Kind of measures taken to the end to degree and again this in itself I'm sure in the Western world is going to throw up quite a lot of difficulties about how that is going to be Controlled and implemented. So yeah Unfortunately not not good times ahead When I'm when I'm discussing this but the other thing that's happening in markets just to quickly go back I mean from a Bank of England point of view I do think the Bank of England are going to make an emergency announcement I can't tell you when that's going to happen But their next bank meeting is not until a week Thursday and for me. That's too long the Bank of England I've got to go again. So whether that happens today tomorrow in the coming days I think that we are definitely going to see QE from the Bank of England north of a hundred billion most likely buying Guilts and corporate bonds. I think is a necessity now at this point whether or not they cut rates I if they do I think you're probably looking at about 15 basis points to take rates to basically point 1% I think would probably be The most common view of what they could do but as they say I don't think it's a matter of if but when And I think that they will act in the coming days the other thing of course which is Drawn some attention Yesterday and I'm gonna get Sam on and he's gonna have a talk as well about the kind of technical levels, but WTI crude Well, let's just look at the long-term chart here This is what oil looks like flirting its lowest levels in almost 17 years Yeah, you've got to go back a long long way and in fact I was just looking on the weekly chart here if I switch over to my screen. This is the same On my my trading terminal and here you can see this is that key level which we were testing this was the the big fallout that we had with the oversupply the glut in the market really came about here at the end of 2014 November that was when OPEC took that decision to flood the market to squeeze the shell industry You have the China hard landing fears and that was when we hit that 26 Well, we're right there at the moment and actually a whisker below puts us back down at these levels not seen to this kind of period here in Basically the beginning of 2003. So once you start looking below these levels You start to see the next kind of areas I guess down at the March 02 lows and then you start getting down to the the psychological $20 level and then below there. You've got the low that was seen Literally after 9 11 In 2001 that would come at $16.79 now a couple of banks have been out Goldman's have cut their Brent forecast to 20 bucks in Q2 So they are seeing a breach of these current key levels down another few dollars Standard chartered is going for below 20 now put us back down at the 01 lows And I find it hard to really disagree with that view. I mean, it's such a mammoth Economic challenge the globe global economy is gonna face. I do feel quite bearish with oil I guess it's just how far lower does it go and I Think once you start getting to $20 and around there I don't think it can be discounted that we do get down to that real 16 type level Over the coming weeks is is not off the table. I'd say at this point That is pretty much it from my point of view I mean, I can show you the economic calendar, but as I said, it's getting more and more To the point of really this is less and less meaningful I eat things like building permits howling starts. It's just all of zero consequence quite frankly I mean from an oil infantry point of view probably worth keeping an eye on given We're at pretty precarious levels here technically all it needs is a match to light the The the kind of logs piling up and then the flame the spark could cause the flames in the in oil market That cause it's to crash down quite violently Could potentially happen So definitely would keep an eye out for that, but lol and all I would say the cap economic data now It really doesn't matter what we're trading now is just this kind of behavioral view Monitoring of governments. What can they do? Further updates on that front is going to be key look out for any more emergency measures from central banks I the Bank of England as I discussed I think will move in the coming days And then the escalation I guess in case if you're based in the UK is that we start then at some point To implement more forcible measures like we've seen in France Whether or not that happens, and I'm not here to speculate but We shall see and if it is going to happen that way You're probably going to see some various other steps happen beforehand schools nurseries are still open at this point in the UK But you know just reading and watching the news last night I think political pressure is going to get so much that I'm not sure how much longer they can hold that off And certainly I don't think they can hold that off up, you know and buy enough time up to Easter So again, that's probably force coming as well in the near future. All right, gonna hand you over to Sam Back by popular demand So let's get him on and hear what he's got to say, but take care guys all the best Yeah, guys couldn't get rid of me that easy. I don't know which market to start on I've got pound about a hit 120. You've got S&P limit down. You've got Boyle near one of the biggest levels of The last few years Let's start with oil Look at this insane these moves and I mean, where do we go if we if we close the table over there? I mean, what's stopping 20 what's stopping 20 Tim? It'd be interesting to see what you think about oil here. I know you've been bearish for quite some time and You know back back last Monday nice little bounce from Ferre if we then try to get above that range But yeah, that weren't happening and then when Trump did the the travel ban overnight Well, I never looked back did it so keep an eye on these levels, of course Big big area 26 bucks as well. Let's have a quick look with the pivots on not that, you know They're gonna be the be all and end all today But you can see if for whatever reason we could drift back up towards $28 You've got a like that as the look of these sort of lows previously as an area to find some resistance 2737 similar kind of thing with the original low that we had last Monday So keeping a watch on that For we to wait 23 the hourly close below this this historical level below the 26 is low 26 I think that could could lead to a further push down and as we bring in that 15 minute You know these the the type of areas though if we don't close below you can get a strong rally higher So yes have the bias that we can you know go one way or the other but just remember You know prices is king here and what will happen will happen eventually But it doesn't have to go down if that's your bias straight away It could of course have a little rally if we fail to close below for example, so yeah big level Potentially a bigger level in markets for me is is that 120 in the pound. Let's just bring this on without those pivots on and Bring this into picture. You can see we we spiked through it Didn't we back in in September very very quickly We broke down and spiked back up and then rallied up to 135 Not saying that's gonna happen now, but you can see the importance of that level as well. This is going back here, too You just hover over that Yeah, that the post Brexit low can't quite get the month on it for whatever reason, but it's around I think it was October time And then if we have a look here on the weekly just to put them into some perspective of you know here where you know The futures here, you know with this going only back to 2001 But you can see how low that is, you know be worth bringing on the the spot market going back even further But here you can just Imagine if we can close the day below here Then you know this market potentially can can fly and you know got certain people in my ear telling me You know look at this trend line going from here down to there. We're gonna get 110 We're gonna get 116. Well, you know, you know what if we close below 120 You know, what's gonna stop it? What is gonna stop it? The dollar is strong at the moment keep an eye on 120 Remember what happened last time just because we briefly go below doesn't mean it's gonna Absolutely accelerate down and ever come back. So just be prudent be careful Euro at a big level as well the 110 put this on the daily chart You can see the importance of this whole area if we just draw up 110 Historically not just from yesterday but going back here to November time October time last last year Below here when yeah, you got to say dollar is king and we're gonna look to test those lows again, which is insane Unfortunately my trade the the fib 0.382 115 hand all high from the the 25th of June. Yeah, I mean that was out last Friday What what hindsight can tell you a I mean that would have been Such a good trade to hold but this is a key level You're coming to a key level in the pound and the euro both against the dollar here one market That is quite interesting Combining those two is euro and the pound. It's been Vertical at the moment. We are coming to a quite an interesting level here This is more, you know, I want to see how we close the days and weeks up at these points going back to September last year And I mean if this breaks through then, you know gonna get that higher from the 12th of August last year, which is pretty much a double top you could save from August 2017 Looking more intraday if it doesn't quite get up there and it's better on the spot You've got quite a key level of support here That I'll be looking at from yesterday's lows today's lows and a bit of half decent price action on the 16th So we can get below there You know, I don't mind the idea that we can potentially drift lower But then, you know close the day above those levels we push on and and those August 17 and 19 levels Well, they could easily come through as well. So keeping an eye on that I think it's worth while the Aussie dollar has been well That's been relentless to the downside and that is on the low right now Drifting that chart back as far as it can go on the daily You see we're nowhere to be seen put it on to the weekly once that loads up You can see now if I drag that there we're at levels Well, we just hit a level which was the post Financial crisis low there in the Aussie dollar futures. So what happens below here is, you know It could really again look for the daily clothes, but it could accelerate down and then you suddenly look into what's this here 2003 levels same for the Kiwi under, you know pressure and these markets not too long ago We're finding support where you think okay, we got a bit of a rally here But again look under massive pressure the Kiwi so dollar is strong at the moment. I mean to see what exactly that is trade on the Dixie Yeah, broke a hundred didn't it long ago, which is a key point did it a bit of resistance from from yesterday evening But yeah above a hundred dollars is very strong to have a look over at equities, of course limit down today. It's You know just looking here at the Dow We haven't had two days positive in a row since the 28th of Feb and then Free I mean going back here to the 12th of Feb, so yeah, I mean where we open today We'll see what obviously happens in the meantime between 130, but Yeah, it's not a pretty picture for equities at the moment and trading them at the moment is very tricky as well You're constantly having these breaks in the market. You're having swings of you know 5% up and down each day minimum and the spreads are pretty big Don't feel like you have to be drawn towards this market because it's the most talked about of course currencies are now moving How equities were so there's obviously plenty of opportunity for that as well. It looks like we could well open up below 20,000 in the Dow Jones, which would be pretty insane to think about that just given how How far how recently we were at all-time highs just from a longer term point Of view, you know, this is when you know, you've got to start thinking about well Hang on is this actually an area for a longer term to to get in and you know, you're you'd be unwise Unwise to I don't know unwise to go full in full size right now But look we are I mean if we do it to where we're training down at those loads You've got a 30% discount at the moment for me you know this This area here Was a is a point where I'll be looking to get in longer term as a sort of a fading in approach looking to to hold some of these Positions for you know number of years and then this is one of those points where I've got marked up as this is a you know We could absolutely smash straight through fine, but it doesn't bother me You know, this is a longer-term play to eventually, you know when this market does start to recover You're getting up towards those highs again. It's a 46% move You know, you're not going to complain too much about that. Where do I think we can go to? Well, that's anyone's guess to be completely honest. I think we have to take out these December 2018 lows That's very much the the talk in the street. We need to do that and then it's you know reassess from then on It would be heartbreaking for the Trump when it if we got down to the election lower at 2028 it's not out the question to be completely honest But the other level that I've got marked up is the 50% Push lower needs to get that currency. So if we were in the S&P to do a 50% move Which would be obviously quite insane. So, yeah, it's just a bit above there You know if we were to get down to those 2016 Lows then, you know, that would be the main part of my longer term point to get in Don't think we necessarily get there though. However, have a quick look over at gold It's you know, it's a market where we're having wild pushes either way as well Just like pretty much every single product. It's one where you've got to be it's a condition where you've got to Obviously identify your levels maybe wait for your your signal your reg to get into that trade and take it on But be quick to get out because these markets can turn on six points and you can see here That's what it's been doing for the last couple of sessions. We have got quite a good line in the sand here 1519.4 the highs from Monday evening Tuesday morning and then we've broken through fan resistance there as well So keep a watch on that and then just having a look, you know here 1487.1 This is the same kind of thing that I've been looking at decent area support good price action through there if we come down You know, why can't we see something similar to talk? We saw it at those levels to the upside and this is how I would look at every product and you know Identify your levels and don't feel don't get that FOMO feel like you need to jump in straight away because there's going to be opportunities throughout the day As well, maybe worth having a bit of a trend line on there comes in probably could potentially come in around the same sort of time They're for gold which incredibly as well is, you know, I mean so high At 1700 to where it is now. I mean that's Centage wise to where we're trading, you know, 12% move those lows we hit in You know didn't quite get taken out here on the future's November levels. I think we could in time get another test of those As well, especially if the dollar is going to remain this strong As usual guys any questions, please do let me know massive levels in oil pound euro and of course equities as well That's just having a bit of recovery So keep an eye on on US equities if they were to get a potential boost from from European stocks But at the moment doesn't seem to be the way. I hope you'll have a good trading date and and any questions guys Please do