 I always start with this slide, which shows all the crises in the world, not all them, but most of the crises in the world. And every time I show it I say, the crises are getting worse, and they're getting even more interconnected with the world before. And I think that is really true. What we're interested in is making sure that we think of agriculture, food security, and nutrition security as at the centre of these crises. We think that we accorded that position. We don't really quite know where we're going to get to. The commitments that are being laid out in Paris mean that we'll probably get to something like three degrees instead of the two that we want to get to. There's a big move to go to 1.5, and I think that's a really good political aim. If you go to, we're on track at the moment, really to go to that right-hand side, which will get you to something like four degrees, and you'll notice there that you've got great areas of very hot climates in Northern and Southern Africa in particular. We always have to keep in memory that when something has an average of two degrees above pre-industrial, it's an average. Some places will do much worse. Africa is hotting up faster than any other climate in the plan. What is particularly interesting is this graph, which I came across recently, which shows when the climates start to move beyond the historical. In other words, when you start to get weather behaviour that is not in the previous record, a good example is November the first near our house in Sussex this month where we hit 22 degrees centigrade, and that's the first time on record that it's been so hot in November in Southeast England. Mostly you're getting outside the historical in the oceans, but you can see West Africa, for example, getting it in the next few years and so on. What we're also getting is more weather extremes. This is the great winter of 2010-2011. The whole of the country was covered with ice and most of Ireland too. That was the year in which there was the great drought in America, drier since 1936. It was the great heat wave in Russia. It was the great flooding in Pakistan and there was another drought in Australia. We're going to get more of that kind of phenomenon into the future when all these things start to come together and they will be very difficult to cope with. In the UK effectively what's going to happen is that it's going to get drier and hotter in the Southeast and the rest of the UK is going to get wetter. In the Southeast it means that we're simply going to go towards producing wine. We've got massive vineyards being planted all over where we live and elsewhere and that's probably going to be our salvation. It's growing very high quality wines for the rest of the world. In the West you're getting more grassland production and therefore more livestock intensity. I decided because I was coming here I'd try and find out what's going on in Ireland so I'm going to show you things that you know but I'll just do it again. If you look at Irish temperatures it's a kind of mirror in a way. Not a mirror, it's a replica of what's happening in the United Kingdom. You're getting in the West here much milder winters into the future and so you're getting earlier springs and that's going to increase your milk production. In the summer it's just going to get hotter and hotter and hotter. Sorry about that, it is. But the rainfall is particularly interesting because you are going to get more rainfall in the winter but it's this that's fascinating. It's the increasing degree of drought. It's not just in the South-East of Ireland. It's over a great deal of Ireland. You're getting very extensive dry weather into the future. What's going to happen is your milk yields have sort of levelled a bit but you're going to go on increasing your milk yield because of the early growth of grass in the West. The potatoes are going to be highly variable and they're going to suffer enormously from the drought. The papers I've taken this from, you probably know, the person has written them, is arguing that eventually potatoes will not be a crop any longer, a viable crop in Ireland unless there's considerable irrigation which is a sort of a rather tragic thing to think about. Wheat and barley are going to go on increasing but they're going to be replaced a lot by maize and by soybean into the future. I just say that because I've only just discovered it and you probably all know what I've just said that there it is. But what is important is that both in the UK and Ireland we can cope. The problems are not that great. It'll be easy, relatively easy to change your cropping patterns. In Africa it's already tough. You've got much shorter growing periods. I was in Ghana and also Ghana recently and the rains came a month late and they finished a month early so there was only 100 days. That's happening a lot now. Most important is the maximum temperature above 30 degrees is increasing and we know what that's doing to maize crops. There's been considerable analysis of maize yields as a function of maximum temperatures. It turns out that for every degree day above 30 degrees you lose 1.7% of the final crop. That's a result of 2,000 experiments in Africa. Very well-grounded piece of information. In other words, if you go to 31 degrees you'll lose 1.7% of the crop. If you go to 32 degrees you'll lose 3.4% of the crop. If you do that 2 days successively it'll be 1.7.2% of the crop. Massive loss of maize yield is a result of heat. The point I really want to make here though is that agriculture is especially vulnerable to climate change. Crops and livestock are vulnerable to too much water, too little water, too much heat, too little heat. Fundamental vulnerability. Also, farmers are particularly vulnerable. Developing country farmers are small. They don't have much money. They have less than a hectare of land. They have no resources to fall back on. Even developed country farmers out here often struggle to make a living and they depend on subsidies and insurance and all of them are highly vulnerable to extreme events. So unlike other sectors like say aviation or house building or transport or whatever else it is, this is a sector that's extremely vulnerable to climate change that has never really been accepted by the negotiators in terms of climate change. There's only a couple of sentences in all the draft negotiations that are going on at the moment which refer to food security or agriculture. And I think many of us think that okay, fine, they'll have this conference, but that's not what's important. What is important is after the conference. It's working hard to make sure that the governments, both developed countries and developing countries, donors and recipients work to make agriculture much more important in terms of adaptation and mitigation. We know that there's massive hunger in Africa and that's one of the problems we've got to solve. We also know that it's not an issue of population growth. Everybody, the public all thinks that the real problem is the population's growing and we've got to feed it. That isn't the big problem. It's the sort of problem, but it's not a big problem. The big problem is that we're eating more meat. The green there is pigment, I mean pork and other products of pigs. Half of all of that is consumed in China. Half of all the world's pork and pigment is consumed in China. They've recently bought Smithfield, which is the biggest American producer and processor of pork. The Chinese have bought it. The Chinese import huge amounts of soybean to feed pork and other animals. When we get the next great big, confluence of different extreme events, the Chinese are going to go on that market to gab all the soybean they can. It's going to get rough. There's also the problem of land degradation. This is work done in the University of Bonn. All that really is significant land degradation. These are the hotspots of land degradation, not just ordinary land degradation, but significant land degradation. In Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, it's over a quarter of all the land is suffering from severe land degradation. You can see it all along the Sahel, round the Great Lakes and down there. It's massive the amount of land degradation in the world. We're doing very little about it. It just compounds the issues that we've got. We have to intensify land production. We've got to produce more. Given that water and land of good quality is in short supply, we've got to produce more nutritious food, more variable food, and we've got to produce higher farming incomes. That's what we have to do on the same amount of land or less. I suppose, in theory, we could cut down all the forests in the Congo and we could grow a lot more land, but the climate would be even further affected. We have to produce more with less. But it has to be sustainable. You're adding and adding on the problems and the challenges. You've got to use your inputs more prudently, whether it be fertilisers or pesticides or whatever. You've got to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions. You've got to increase natural capital. In other words, you've got to build up soil organic matter. You've got to build up soil moisture. You've got to build up natural enemies of pests. You've got to strengthen resilience. That's what the task is. Some ways for young people, that's an exciting task. For most of us, it's really horrendous to think that that's what we have to do. At the centre of that is this notion of climate smart agriculture, linked into this notion of sustainable intensification. Climate smart agriculture is contentious. Many NGOs say it's all about industrial hegemony. The essence of it is that you're talking about adaptation and mitigation, but the mitigation has to be a co-benefit. I'll come to that in what I'm going to say next. These are the different bits, these are the FAO definition of what climate smart agriculture is about. I know that you've got a programme on this here and it will be interesting to see how you think about what you're doing in terms of these criteria for what's climate smart agriculture. One approach is precision farming. Sorry, this is a bit, Luke, you're going to have to take out because I don't have the copyright for you. You put fertiliser in it and you put that in a hole when you plant the maize plant. You may put some manure in there as well. That way you get away with very, very small amounts of fertiliser per hectare. You're producing higher yields and you're minimising the amount of nitrous oxide that's being given off by the field. You're getting all these double benefits and that's what's exciting about it. The same is true of drip irrigation. This is drip irrigation in home, somewhere. I mean, what's this captioning? Of course, you're making sure that you're just using the exact amounts of water for what you want to do. You're not wasting the water. The principle is the same, precision agriculture, even if the practice is very, very different. And the other interest that people have got is in conservation agriculture. Conservation agriculture consists in part, and you've done a lot of work in concern on this, in part on no till. In other words, you don't plough the land. And because you don't plough it, you can serve its structure rather better. You prevent a degree of erosion. But don't just not plough the land. You have to keep the land covered throughout the year. And you may do that by leaving the stover, the material after you've harvested, so, for example, if you harvest a mage, you leave the stalks on the surface of the ground, keeping the ground covered. But you also rotate, and usually you rotate with a legume. So, those three elements, no till keeping cover on the ground and alternating with a legume. And here you can see an example in UK, in Lincolnshire, where the wheat straw has been left on the ground and you're planting a bean crop in subsequent years. And you're getting increases in yields, reductions in crop establishment, reductions in fuel use, and reductions in erosion of different kinds. It works extremely well. And it's working in many parts of the developing world, as well as in the industrialized world. I said there's also the issue of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This is a complicated picture, but basically it talks about three gases, carbon dioxide, which comes from clearing land, primarily, methane and nitrous oxide, coming from animals and nitrous oxide from fertilizer. Those are what agriculture gives off. Methane and nitrous oxide are much more powerful in terms of creating global warming than carbon dioxide. So agriculture as a whole is a major contributor of greenhouse gases in the world. Something like 14% of all the greenhouse gases come from agriculture as such, and another, what's it, 15% more percent coming from clearing land. It's a big contributor. I will reduce methane and nitrous oxide with various attempts being made with genetics and better management and different livestock and so on. There are good examples working at a small scale, but there's very little working at any kind of large scale. And we need much more effort to go into this in terms of producing large scale solutions. In most cases, what we need is a combination of adaptation and mitigation. Now, mitigation needs to be the co-benefit or the afterthought or the extra that comes out. There's a well-known crop which RSA has been promoting. These trees are called phyterbia. They're a kind of albitsia. They have a curious habit of shedding their leaves in the wet season. And when they shed their leaves, you get more nitrogen because they're leguminous. And there's enough nitrogen underneath these trees to produce you three tonnes of hectare without three tonnes of maize per hectare without adding fertilizer. And they put carbon back. They'll put carbon back to... Oh, it's underneath, sorry. Two to four tonnes per hectare you can get from under this kind of agroforestry. It's much better than conservation farming, in fact. And you've got the standing crop where it's mature will give you 10 to 20 tonnes of carbon in land. We need more examples like this of where you do something that actually increases your yield but at the same time gets carbon back into the soil or reduces methane or nitrous oxide. The problem is of financing. If you're a farmer and your extension agent comes to you and says, we think you should do this and we think you should do that. After three or four years, you'll be much better off as a result. The farmer will say, yes, yes, yes. And say, I don't have the money, I don't have the time, I don't have the labour to do what you want me to do. It's very difficult to get farmers to invest in their land, particularly if they're small, with less than two hectares of land. There are all these climate funds, about 50 different climate funds in the world. We can recite them. There's the green climate fund, the climate investment fund, the green technology fund, the green development mechanism and so on. Lots of them live there. But they're nearly all very complex. They're very bureaucratic and they're very difficult to access. So virtually none of their funding goes to Africa. And none goes to Small Holder Farmers, or my new amount goes to Small Holder Farmers in Africa. And that has got to change. Nothing will happen until that really changes. That's the depressing thing that's out there. We'll hear a great deal about all these pledges of money for climate change, but it's not getting to Africa and it's not getting to Small Holder Farmers. Value chains are important as part of this mix You can think of the value chain running up from rural to urban. There's all kinds of issues you can hang on value chains. But one that I just want to mention very briefly is insurance. Farmers will only be innovative if there is some degree of insurance. They're only likely to buy new seeds or fertilisers or to invest in their land. If there is some kind of insurance that protects them when it all goes wrong. And I've had a brilliant PhD student called Eric Chaves who has developed a mathematical construct that gives you the probability of extreme weather over one or two decades for a particular area. And he was finishing his PhD and Sainsbury's heard about his PhD and they asked him to go and talk to them. And as a result of that he's raised one and a half million euros for this insurance programme. In the UK, £6 billion a year are lost because suppliers don't supply what they're contracted to supply to supermarkets. The bill for Sainsbury's was £600 million alone. And what he's done is to produce this scheme and it's down to eight kilometre pixels if you like which gives you the kind of weather and so on into the future. And we've got a pilot programme in Tanzania on this to see how well this would work. The whole notion is to give farmers much more confidence that when they do things that they haven't done before they will get some insurance in the programme. Finally, resilience. Resilience is about how you react to stress or shock. You can anticipate it and survey it and prevent it, tolerate, recover it. The trouble is we tend to spend all our money down here recovering and restoring, not in terms of preventing what will happen. How do you get resilient livelihoods? A good example in the mouth of the sentiments in India is that this woman grows rice and she also grows vegetables. She's got a husband and he raises fish fry. You've got a little bicycle taxi which he rides around the village and you can have a ride on it or you'll take your bags with him. So they've got the rice, they've got the vegetables, they've got this and as I was walking away there was a solar panel on the fat truth. Most of you who've worked in Africa know that if you go to a village what you have to do is ask a lot of daft questions and then you finally find out the truth. So I said, oh, why have you got a solar panel? Electricity. He didn't say electricity, he's done it, but he said electricity. I said, oh, why do you want electricity? He said, for light bulbs. He said, he's going to be pretty cross at this point. Then I said, why do you want light bulbs? Then he said, so the children do their homework. So his children do their homework, they will get some kind of qualification out of their school, they will go and get a job in the nearby little township and then there'll be another source of income for that family when the next cycle comes and it did come, not very long after I took those photographs. I think there's a general lesson there, it's not just the Sunderbanz in India, it's for all of us. That's one of the answers we have to take. Thank you.