 Hi, my name is Leon Roe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180.com and welcome to this week's supply and demand Forex and gold fundamental and technical analysis if you're new and warm welcome to you And if you're returning an equally warm welcome and please don't forget to like subscribe and share if you find the content That I provide in this video and all of my videos on the you to my youtube channel useful Liking is a way of basically supporting for free doesn't cost you anything just press the like button thumbs up and it really helps get this quality content out to struggling traders and traders who don't really understand About really combining fundamental with 10 technical analysis. So if you are new just a quick I guess synopsis of what we do here at trading 180 and our trade processes literally just applying fundamental analysis to establish Directional bias and then we apply technical analysis strategies like capture paying relief supply and demand zones daily and stop hunts to To really just use to enter our trades along with some risk management and obviously some profit targets, right? so before we get into the technicals and fundamentals just looking at the calendar and the week ahead and zoom in a little bit First quarter running season gets under way So that service stocks with updates expected from major banks such as JPMorgan Chase City Group and Wells Fargo on the economic data front important releases to follow include the US and Eurozone retail sales and Industrial production figures UK monthly GDP that would be important GDP is always important China first quarter GDP that will even though we don't necessarily trade the Chinese Yuan currency It's good for global growth. If if China are growing as well and trade balance that directly affects Australia as well and and the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar who are And China are their biggest trade partners, right? So if China are growing nature have a knock-on effect on really the world but specifically commodity currencies like Australia and New Zealand Australia, I mean, sorry employment data will also be Something to watch as they're getting that is an indication of Growing GDP so business and consumer morale in India inflation. We don't necessarily trade the Indian currency Central bank meetings will be held in South Korea, New Zealand, so the New Zealand the RBNZ is something to keep an eye on them what their monetary policy is will be going forward and And yes, Singapore and Turkey anyway, so a couple of couple of things to keep keep an eye out on when it comes to understanding where the fundamental trajectories should be and getting into the technicals and fundamental analysis and starting off as we always do on the dollar index and DXY and this week we did have a bit of a pullback on the daily and I am personally Bullish on the dollar, but just because I'm bullish on the dollar doesn't mean that every single week or every single day that the Dollar is gonna make, you know new highs, right? It doesn't make doesn't work like that So we have to look at the bigger picture and see where the dollar is going And then basically try and take advantage of potential pullbacks into supply or demand zones again fundamentals Are the reasons why we choose our direction? But then understand also as well that not every single day or every single week You're going to get a dollar, you know pullback for example, what you know Dollar's gonna move higher every single day, but there was a bit of a demand zone Which I deleted which really was at the highs and I was I said last week that I wasn't keen on on on that And really we use the the dollar index is just a measure of dollar strength against the major currencies like the pound the euro and the yen and So this is really just used as a confluence right so if the dollar Index starts to move higher for example, then that would be confidence that of dollar strength It moves down a bit of dollar weakness or just basically just some sort of pullback, right? Doesn't necessarily mean that dollar is weak It just means that for this, you know period in history for example, you know this week It was you know, there was a bit of a pullback but pullbacks allow the financial institutions and the people that trade fundamentals and have long-term medium to long-term vision To actually buy the dollar for cheaper who wants to buy the dollar up here when you can buy the dollar for cheaper down here And look at your risk reward, right? If it at least reaches the overall highs So that's the way to kind of look at it, but moving forward for me I am more bullish on the dollar and for various reasons There was some very recent good news out on the inflation front So US data suggests inflation pressure is building So US producer price inflation hit a 10-year high in March adding to signs that there May be a durable jump in prices coming through that will set tongues wagging among Fed watches Some who of whom believe that the central bank will be forced to into raising interest rates raising interest rates is always positive for a currency or should be positive for a currency and If the central bank is forced into raising rates, which they should be if there is inflation quicker than some investors expect so Inflation a higher inflation and central banks have a 2% inflation target if inflation starts to get to a 2% target and maybe beyond that then the Central bank will be forced to raise or hike interest rates to try and stem inflation as long as obviously GDP and the and the economy is doing well and in the financial times US markets shift to price in Fed Rate rise next year. So analysts warn timetable is too aggressive even as economy quickly recovers and There's some interesting thoughts in this of the quickening US economic recovery has markets pricing in a federal reserve Rate hike as soon as next year, but analysts warn its accelerated timetable is Is far too aggressive so recent data pointing to a strong recovery in the labor market and leading indicate a signaling rapid growth in Both the services and factory sectors have prompted traders to sharpen their bets that the US central bank will lift interest rates from near zero sooner than previously Anticipated your dollar futures a closely tracked measure of interest rate expectations now indicate the Fed will Initiate lift off by the end of 2022 with three additional interest rate hikes Interest rate increases pension by early 2024 So this that stands in sharp contrast to what Fed officials have recently signaled Which is for rates to stay tethered to zero until at least 2024 So it's really kind of by the rumors of the fact the market is pricing in earlier rate hikes and The Fed are trying to be a bit more cautious. So what we go with obviously what the market thinks and So the market are really kind of pricing in Rate hikes so again by the rumors sell the fact right by the time the rumor starts to come to fruition The money would have been made So if the market is penciling in an earlier rate hike, then why would I? You know as a retail trader, you know think any any any different So it's just having a trade idea and having the confidence so going back to the technicals for me If if the market looking to price in a rate hike and that should be positive for the dollar Then any pullbacks are buying opportunities. So let's see what happens if we can get a little bit of more of a pullback into that zone It's confluence then that would be brilliant any kind of short trades up into this supply zone here I'm going to you know, maybe just move this over to this area there and there So that's where you know, we've got some supply. We've also got a little bit of supply right here as well a lower high lower low right there and Supply so so yeah, but I think it's higher area If you did want to get short on the dollar based on some maybe some negative news that might come out You know within the next week or two because remember that the data has to support the narrative So the narrative is for potential rate hikes and as long as there's good GDP growth inflation is going in the right direction then You know and obviously the vaccine rollout as well then that supports Dollar hike narrative safe as long as we keep seeing that then it's pretty much for me Anyway long dollars, but if you do want to get short These are the areas you want to look for any kind of short trades as confluence moving on to the dollar yen and the dollar yen Again was waiting for a bit of a pullback which we managed to get but just not down into this demand zone is daily demand zone at the moment So if again prices can pull back into this daily demand that would be really nice We've got another supply zone here, but focus on supply in a sec So any kind of pullback into this daily demand that be a really nice buy The dollar so the yen is a risk of currency and tends to do well in a risk off in environment But we're more in a risk on environment to be fair So I couldn't see really the the yen doing well and we've been in the risk on environment really since the beginning of the year And you've seen pretty much what's been happening So just a bit of a pullback for anyone who's trained trading into a demand zone before looking at getting long If you are getting short and there is a change in risk sentiment Then it's going to be a first and second areas to look for any kind of short trades to buy the yen If you think that the yen is a bargain at those prices moving on to The dollar Swiss and the dollar Swiss has pulled back to a very nice area again Just to go over, you know the demand zone So obviously there wasn't any kind of demand here and again just really looking at where demand was Considering the overall where the trend is really kind of buying at highs. You don't really want to be buying at highs to be fair Yes, there is opportunities there, but it's not necessarily the best area You want to really wait for pullbacks into, you know deeper zones deeper pullbacks And so this area here for me is really nice I do like that area of demand and let's see what happens here if prices can pull back Then brilliant. If not, then this is going to be the next zone for me Anyway to get long you don't have to and obviously this isn't financial advice. I'm going to just put another Supply zone here. Now again, you would look for any kind of supply zones If you think that the dollar is going to get weaker and the Swiss Frank is going to get stronger So that's going to be the first area to look for any kind of Short trades at the moment unless prices make lower lows and then you and then a pullback into that lower high before looking at getting Short but I think all signs are really pointing towards a stronger dollar and even In a in an uptrend you have to get pullbacks, right? There has to be liquidity again as I explained this last week But if you don't have enough buyers if people want to get long right of traders and ultimately You know, they want to get long and it has to be enough sell orders to facilitate Buying, yeah, and if there's not enough sell orders above the market to facilitate buying so that liquidity Yeah for liquidity and prices to go higher then Prices are going to look for this liquidity and if you and if anyone is buying at these areas It was buying in that area there. What is their stop-loss? It's a sell order So it starts to stop hunt these people also as well at the same time Draws in traders who want to go short who are just following price randomly because they believe price action is king They're getting short and who's taking the other side of these of that trade, right? As we know if trade is going short who's on the other side of your trade. It's the smart money. So Let's trade new traders go short the smart money are able to buy on the way down and Then look for potential long trades here. So it's all about buying at value and let's see Where where prices do lead this week if they do go higher brilliant If they don't it just means that for me longer term I'm buying dollar for cheaper Especially against the Swiss Frank the Swiss Frank is not really a buy. They've got negative interest rates minus zero point seven five I think it is Who wants to be a buyer and hold Swiss Frank's doesn't make any sense So especially when you compare it to the dollar, which is at zero point two five interest rates of a holding dollars Just for holding dollars you get in a higher interest rate And in fact if you hold Swiss Frank's then you then you're basically losing money. So Yeah, for me buys if you do want to get short then the zero point nine four one eight is your your Your preferred area your preferred supplies area moving on to the dollar Cad and the dollar cad again. This is a bit of a tricky one I'm not really interested in this pair to kind of strong pairs, you know fighting it out Inside the Canadian dollar is winning at the moment lots of supply, you know being being made Lots and lots of supply zones with downtrend lower highs and lower lows and to the delete those to kind of tidy up the chart Probably delete this one up top as well. So I Just zoom in a little bit again when you get two strong currencies Kind of Competing then you should get this kind of choppy ranging market trends tend to happen when you've got a weak currency versus a strong Currency, which is what was happening last year Or earlier this year I should say and then there was a bit of a dollar dollar sentiment change But you can see that the Canadian dollar is still Really a quite a strong currency as far as a commodity currency. There was some positive news out around Employment as well for the Canadian dollar. So it continues the narrative But if you do want to get long on the US dollar, then this is a really nice zone any short trades really should have been Probably this area here before getting short if not I think the best area is probably up around these highs one two nine area before looking at getting short Moving on to the New Zealand the New Zealand dollar Swiss. Sorry bit of a tongue-twister there New Zealand dollar again to Strong currencies last week all we saw is really just sideways price movement I think again this area is okay for a decent long trade If you do want to get long on the New Zealand dollar, but some again with just from a currency a fundamental Selection it's not really the best currency pair similar to the dollar CAD It's not really great But if you want to look for any kind of long trades pull backs into this zone here as decent Or you're looking at short trade from around this 71 0.7 1 908 area pound Dollar and the pound dollar again to currencies. I'm not too Or currency pair. I'm not too keen on trading at the moment And it's really because the the pound is seen as recovering quite well when it comes to the vaccine. So Where is my There we go UK sorry well races towards elusive milestone in quest to control COVID right so UCL Model suggests some 75% of UK population as antibody scientists see too many unknowns to say COVID and is near but the UK increased its COVID immunity. Sorry The UK's increased COVID-19 immunity raises Prospects of moving on from the worst of the pandemic with some scientists Saying the country could cross a key threshold as soon as Monday According to researchers at University College London That's when so-called herd immunity could be achieved in the UK Almost three quarters of the population will have antibodies against the virus either through vaccination or past infection estimate So Britain has already seen a plunge in new cases and deaths and the government will relax Restrictions including on outdoor dining on Monday. So those developments Have fueled hopes that the nation will suit will soon shake off its COVID shackles Which basically is positive for what? GDP growth, right? So we're getting back to some sort of normality You know in the UK Surprisingly very surprisingly is you know ahead one of the countries that is ahead of When it comes to the vaccine roll out and you know opening up their doors, right? So when we're looking at currencies to trade you always want to look for currencies that are diverging, right? So divergence between The pound and dollar isn't necessarily that strong because the dollar is also looking at You know reopening and their economy is quite strong and the UK, you know waiting on positive COVID recovery to Basically translate into positive data. So Two strong currencies so for me not necessarily the best from a currency pair Perspective, but if you do want to get long here is a decent long and if you do want to get short then I'd have to probably move this down a little bit more to about here And I would say that's probably the area you want to look for Underside of that one three eight one point three eight five. So one point three eight three five Four area is when you want to look for potential short trades, but overall I think for me this this pair isn't really something I'm interested in Fundamentally, I know traders tend to want to get married to pairs Which you shouldn't really be married to any kind of pair if you follow the fundamentals you're just following where the strength and the weaknesses and Then that will tell you where really the trends are and where the easier trades are But if you do want to get long again in this demand zone if you want to get short the first areas looking at that area I think up top if prices do come up here. I am interested in getting short there matter of fact But let's see what happens Moving on to the Euro dollar and the Euro dollar is something that I am interested in matter of fact and Earlier in the week this supply zone didn't really work out But again, as I was saying, it's just you're buying really at lows if you consider where you where the trend has been You know lower highs and lower lows right lower highs lower lows and then you're gonna try and get short there It's obvious that we'll say obvious it could have worked out But it's not the best area to look for any kind of short trades It's always a pullback and I did say that last week in last week's video that I'm interested in this area here So that's that's where the best area is and it's this whole area this whole Supply zone and again buying the dollar over the euro. Why would I be buying the dollar over the euro? so The ECB council is concerned about a slow pace of the vaccination in Eurozone So policymakers at March has been in also pointing out positive effects of US stimulus growth on prospects So There's again, there's there's there's an expressed concern About the slow pace of vaccinations in the eurozone and it might delay the union's economic recovery Yeah, according to minutes of their last meeting So these are the smartest guys in the room telling you what their concerns really are and we've got Germany doubles the pace of COVID shots amid Surge in cases. So there was a surge in cases when it comes to when it went Germany When you think about what's going on and going on in the UK and and in the US you're You're seeing massive divergences still Merkel agrees on changes to an Infection legislation with states So Germany has doubled this case after a slug it's pace of COVID-19 vaccinations after the sluggish star as it battles a third wave of the virus that threatens to overwhelm medical Facilities and I think there was another Some more bad news. So for example industry suffers in Germany and France as virus forces locked down This was on the 9th of April. So February output dropped 1.6 in Germany and fell 4.7% in France. So Economists had predicted increases in both countries. So that's again just adding to The the the negative sentiment potentially to Germany and France the euro area is too big as or too large economies both saw Unexpected declines in in industrial production in February suggesting that coronavirus restrictions are increasingly harming parts of the economy that have Proved resilience so far. So again There's massive divergences there. So as long as that continues for me It's pretty much shorts all the way But again, this isn't financial advice if you do want to get long then there is a bit of demand right there And then there is a little bit of demand at the top which prices have kind of bounced off of Temporarily now again, nobody knows whether prices are gonna go all the way down this week Or if it might pop up and go down or even they might pop up even higher But either way the higher it goes for me as long as the narrative stays the same when it comes to Understanding where prices should go in the medium to long term And obviously understanding that there's the divergences still continuing. So for example, the dollar is the US economy is growing the Euro your European Neuros only is struggling Then we should really want to look for some dollar buys which means shorting the euro So just look for opportunities depending on either right now or the higher prices go You know, we should look for some short trades and again not financial advice. This is just what I am doing So with that being said that's pretty much where we are if you do want to get long on the euro I'd probably say wait for a deeper pullback anywhere about in the 171 1750 area to 117 round number before getting long Moving on to the euro yen and euro yen has come up to this supply zone I did like it technically and you saw where prices did, you know kind of sell off a little bit Again, when we're looking at entries, we tend to go down into the one hour and look for some zones look for some candles to to short off of so That's where we get our good risk award from but this currency pair is not something. I'm really interested Don't really like the euro and I don't really like the yen So unless risk is going to be majorly off then buying the yen is the one But if risk is on then there are better really pairs to buy then the euro even though you've seen this Major uptrend to be fair on the euro yen. It's not something that I'm really interested in from a fundamental perspective Moving on to the Aussie dollar and Aussie dollar again similar to You know the CAD dollar sorry dollar cad in the New Zealand New Zealand dollar US dollar pair and it's really the you've got to Competing currencies to strong currencies. So when you get to strong currency You tend to get you know arranging markets So it's difficult to tell which way that you know the price may go in in the short term Overall, I think I do think on analysts have analysts have said that the Australian dollars should go back up to its 80s again, but there are easier trades I think until there's some negative news around the US dollar then I won't really look to trade this pair But if you are then look for any kind of pullbacks before we're looking at getting long and buying your Australian dollar You want to get short then look for a pullback up into the seven zero point seven seven five Zero area to look for any kind of short trades moving forward now to the Aussie Yen and Aussie yen For me, I do like this pair. I want it to come down a little bit more And that area there is that she would be quite decent in fact I think if it can come down to 82 round number, that's where I really be a I really want to be a buyer for me. It doesn't hasn't come down just You know enough for me to want to look for any kind of long trades because of the risk reward to the upside So I really want to see prices come down here and then you obviously have if that's your risk Look at the reward. Yeah better risk reward The more prices pulled back and in a risk on environment the Australian dollar is the one really to buy So as long as that narrative is maintained and the sentiment is maintained then the Australian dollar for me is a buy So it's just waiting for prices to pull back into a deeper zone a fresher zone before looking at getting Long but if price sentiment does change then look for any kind of short trades technically that area there 85 area Is a really nice zone for a short trade? if prices come up here and then some sort of risk off environment comes into the market and Finally looking at gold and gold Gold was a bit of a mixed bag again. You're seeing Prices come up to this supply zone Fundamentally, I think gold has a lot of things going against it, you know bond yields for example bond yields Going higher the dollar strengthening as well. So US dollar and also you have The the US economy right so US economy so sentiment is obviously on as well in the risk on environment Gold typically doesn't really do well Investors are looking for a return on their investment and gold doesn't offer any kind of yield any kind of interest rate so It is a store of value But with stock markets, you know making you know new highs and projected to make new highs Gold is gonna have a tough time Fundamentally, I think Making really new highs doesn't mean that prices are gonna go down here No idea, but if we're looking at where gold's trajectory is in the medium to long term I can't really see it, you know making, you know These these these overall highs for now until I think there's a there's a definitely a sentiment change on the dollar There's some really bad news on on the dollar and in the US economy Then I think gold is going to Maybe be a buy but until that day happens or that that time happens anywhere I think for me I'll probably look for any, you know short trades and you might see gold potentially make further Declines, but again, just keep an eye on maybe the dollar index if a dollar index starts to weaken Pull back a little bit more that could obviously put pressure on Gold to go a little bit higher, but overall I think We should I say we should but If I was trading gold then I would probably look for I'd be more inclined to look for short trades than long trades But that brings us to the end of the analysis By the way, just a quick one Enrollment starts on the 18th of April So if you are looking to get involved in our private members discord group enrollment does open On the 18th for a very short time not going to be forever. So Head over to the website trading 180.com and potentially sign up for, you know, any kind of notifications as to when You know, we are going to be open and How long as well so guys have a great Trading week and anyone I haven't answered yet I will get back to you as soon as I can just a bit busy at the moment preparing for the The opening and the enrollment and I will get back to you. So have a bit of patience and take care and I'll speak to you all soon