 This is covering the spread. Here are your hosts Jim Sonnes and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody? Welcome on into covering the spread. That's right here on the fan dual podcast network in numberfire.com Where today we are getting you set for week number eight in the NFL by talking to Drew Dinsen Whale cap we're gonna swing by and give his thoughts on the biggest games this week including the Steelers against the Ravens My name is Jim Sonnes I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com joined here as always by Ed Fang You can find his work over at thepowerrank.com and Ed it's pretty easy to get pumped about week in the NFL We get a fun game like Steelers versus Ravens on the slates. So how you doing today? I'm doing good I mean, that's the game that is gonna make me be on time at 1 p.m For for where I usually go watch these games with some friends on Sunday. So yeah, I mean just an excellent matchup I mean You know Ken Lamar Jackson get it done, you know Numbers really haven't been there in terms of the passing game two great defenses stuff that we'll all get into later in the show Yeah, absolutely We're gonna get into it Drew Dinsick find him on Twitter at whale underscore capper He of course is the host of the deep dive podcast we had Andy monitor on a couple weeks ago He is Drew's co-host there on the deep dive podcast We're gonna preview week eight with Drew getting his thoughts of course on Steelers versus Ravens Many other games and talk about some future bets as well if you are Tuning in for the first time this week. We also had Eli Hershkovich on yesterday to preview week number nine in college football You can find that discussion by searching for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast Make sure you are subscribed to get Notifications as we go live each and every week on Spotify Apple podcast wherever it may be you can find us And if you like what you hear from Eli drew or either of us make sure you leave a rating and review as well We're gonna have to week eight in just a second at first. We got to go back to last week We had John Shearan on to preview week number seven and John had some good thoughts on those games Covering the past All right last week here on covering the spread We had John Shearan the director of trading at Fandals sports book to preview week seven make sure you follow John on Twitter At Jay Shearan in 1981 and John showed us why he's in the position that he is because John had a good week He thought the Steelers were the right side of their game with the Titans And he apparently was having that discussion with the the staff at Fandals sports book He favored the Steelers they favor the Titans So they had it at minus one and a half and he had the Steelers plus one and a half Yeah, he had he disagreed with them He thought it was Steelers side and he was right the Steelers got a huge lead early in that game and pulled out the win Outright, I know the Titans battled back But hey, you know John hopefully he was able to gloat a bit in the office on Monday about that one John also is on the Rams minus six over the Bears the Bears did almost claw the way back But the Rams won that one pretty comfortably. So another win for John there and Ed I know the Bears were team you had backed the previous week. Did you have anything on them against the Rams as well or no? Oh, yeah, I mean, I bet them against the Rams You know after the show we talked a little bit and I was like, look, I think the Bears offense. I'm sorry I think the bear it's poof. I think the Bears defense is great and You know, they look really good in my numbers I still have my doubts about the Rams even though that they you know, they've been a great team Like how how much can we get off our preseason prior that they were very NFL average? Yeah, and I think he accepted those arguments, but You know didn't did not go my way. Yeah, which is fine. Although I did it My numbers did agree with them that Pittsburgh My fit my numbers at Pittsburgh winning that outright. So yeah, my numbers and John Sharon Yeah went went against his colleagues and we're on the right side See John or is he at the thing you got a count for here is that the Bears defense is facing future Hall of Fame or Jared Goff, you know, you got a you got a count for that You have Rob Azul on your podcast this week. I've got a I've got to bring the good vibes for Jared Goff's another Rob is not a fan. So I gotta bring the good vibes It's my obligatory role here is to pump up Jared Goff act as his agent and Get him in the Hall of Fame eventually Finally both John and I were on the Seahawks minus three and a half Wolf they had a 20 to 7 lead in the first half. They also led 27 14 They were up 10 at the half. They were up 10 in the fourth quarter They promptly blew that lead. They went over time. They lost. It was frustrating. I'm not a fan I like I feel so like a tortured soul for having been someone who has previously bet against Russell Wilson and lost So I was like, oh cool. I can just bet Russell and not worry about it But then Russ was the guy who took me down Yeah, he didn't know the yeah, some of those picks were not Yeah, it was just very uncharacteristic and when you need that kind of Performance from Russell to for them not to cover and not to win Kind of shows you like the confidence you might have on this team on a normal basis Obviously the defense leaves a lot to be desired. Although, you know, I mean, I think you can say a lot of good things about Arizona At this point in the season as well. I mean there absolutely Maybe inching up into the conversation in a very tough division. Yeah, especially that defense playing like competently Even without Chandler Jones, like that's a pretty big endorsement of them because I didn't think the personnel was that great But they've been playing good football regardless the other game I had was really frustrating too because I had the Broncos over 17 points and They scored a touchdown early. They missed the extra point and I was immediately like, oh no. Oh no, no, no I hope this doesn't bite me They finished with 16 points Partially as a result that extra point and like they played terribly still got to 16 points if they had gotten that feel go out of pushed and like That's the point. Yeah, it's sorry if they got an extra point out of pushed That's two really rough ways to get losses. I've had two bad weeks and like I Think my process may have been off in week six I feel good about my process in week seven, but that doesn't make it feel any better Like I'm just annoyed with the way those like if I have lost and deserve to lose cool Whatever it just stings a little bit more when I lose in that fashion No, exactly and like losing Chicago losing the Chicago game just didn't feel good I mean, I don't I think they played bad and that's not gonna happen every week But they kind of did get dominated right and that's not Yeah, like just just brutal like come on man, whatever you were on the Texans Plus three and a half against Green Bay. They actually close at two and a half So you actually cross three there depending on where you look depends on The book you look at but you did cross three there But the Packers pulled away early in the Texans couldn't quite get back into that one But the movement was good. Just not the result. So Tough week for us here on covering the spread. Yeah, I mean, I still think Houston was the right play there I mean, I think there's two two very good teams. The yard was actually very similar I know Green Bay piled it on early Houston a little bit late But you know, I mean Houston You can see I don't know. I think my process was good for that one. Yeah, pretty happy with it I'm really praying that they don't trade away their weapons Before this deadline. Oh because you had the over on the team total or the the wind total, right? Oh, that's dead. Oh That's long long been I guess I was seven and a half, right? Yeah. No, that's okay Well, I'm gonna go now. You know, I'm just like I like watching Deshaun Watson throw the wool fore. Yeah, that's no That's true season. I'm gonna be sad. You don't want to watch Deshaun Watson throw the Randall Cobb or Yeah, Randall Cobb's fine. No fullers. Yeah, I'd rather I'd much rather watch willful or believe me I am right there with you on that one. I am a full endorser of Deshaun Watson So I fully agree with you there as well. So we got a bounce back in week number eight We'll try to do so with your dinsic here in just one second But first betting on the NFL is great betting on the NFL risk free is even better Fandals sportsbook is giving you a chance to bet on week seven of the NFL risk-free with their exclusive same game parlades Simply place a three leg or more parlay on any NFL week eight game to be eligible for the offer and follow along as a game unfolds If you don't win your bet Fandals sportsbook will refund your bet of ten dollars in side credit. What do you have to lose? Must be 21 plus and present in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado or Iowa Refund issues a non withdrawable site credits that expires in seven days max refund ten dollars terms apply gambling problem Call 1 800 gambler in West Virginia call 1 800 gambler net in Indiana call 1 800 9 with it in Colorado Call 1 800 5 2 2 4 700 in Iowa call 1 800 bets off Let's bring in drew dinsic now make sure you follow him on Twitter at whale underscore capper and check out the deep dive Podcasts with him and Andy monitor. We're gonna preview week number eight and get Drew's thoughts on Steelers versus Ravens and many more Covering the present Let's bring drew dinsic into covering the spread to break down week number eight in the NFL drew We have not had you on for a while since I think August. How are you doing today? I'm doing incredible Can you believe it's almost Halloween? Yeah, yeah time flies when you can't do anything fun And it's kind of been that way now It's like it's weird because March felt like it took forever But it feels like no time has passed from April on I just don't know if like we just gotten so used to this or what? But it just feels like time just feels very different right now. Yeah. Yeah time is broken in 2020 There's no doubt about that. I mean a lot of things are broken Yes, that's correct My podcast and we were talking about the cigar room and oh my goodness in Boston that you how somehow escaped I Will never I'm I must honestly I think I must have had it in January or something because there's no there's no way that every everyone in that whole place You know, I my my thinking is that's just how random this is you can you can shut yourself in a room with at least five guys That definitely had positive tested positive for COVID and you come out and skate you are super super immune I went to the Celtics game where Rudy of O'Vare and the jazz had it Indoors to obviously at the TD garden or whatever they call it now and then Yeah, though the conference was amazing and fun got to meet all those people. We were hanging out inside In a cigar lounge blowing smoke like I was yeah, that was that was wild wild Any other chances you want to take like any other super spreader events? You want to go to you because clearly this is your your bullet period at this point. Yeah, man I mean, it's yeah, I'm gonna knock on wood because I write it's nothing to joke about a lot of people a lot of people suffered here But yeah, this is it's all been surreal the entire 2020 has been surreal But NFL's you know the fact that they're the fact that they're crushing through and they're you know We're seven weeks into the season and you know short of a little bit of schedule You know shuffling we really haven't had any impacts is pretty you know We were all pretty pretty lucky to have what we have in the NFL and I really hope the rest of the season continues and I'm a little nervous about how some of the players and some of the teams who fall out of the playoff picture You know if they can kind of keep things together and keep people committed to you know a safe and you know healthy system It's that's that's kind of the X factor here coming down the stretch Yeah, it's always concerning when that when those things happen. I had that same concern with baseball Thankfully, they were able to avoid it, but football is a tougher game. I like physically So I think that checking out is always a concern there So let's talk about NFL because we haven't had you on like we said since NFL started and you'd mentioned Making some tweaks to account for changes in this season Did things play out the way you had expected the first couple of weeks or have you had to you know? Ditch those priors now that we have the actual data Yeah, I would go both with in general. Yes the kind of the principle hypothesis that I was using to Adjust priors off of sort of market, you know market available information I was lower on teams that had a lack of continuity at the head coach and quarterback position And lower on teams that were trying to integrate new defensive backs and wide receivers especially especially youth and so a good example is I was especially low on Vikings for instance coming in because they have all of these You know all these rookies on defense that they were trying to integrate and that ended up being lucrative Number one. I have some nice, you know Vikings under tickets in my pocket Which you know knock on wood they get 16 games played and they can cash those but even beyond that You know Green Bay week one money line was a was was one of my favorite plays of the season so far one of my biggest wins and You know, it's it's it was it was good to capture you know some of the Continuity issues in terms of handicapping But then there's been other examples like Carolina where I expected them to take longer to kind of find their find their legs And realistically by week three They were like clicking and that's a huge credit to you know, Matt Ruhl and Joe Brady and you know Maybe just I didn't appropriately Have a good rating on a lot of those players because they've turned into you know a pretty a damn average team and You know the numbers would have told you before the season. They would have been fighting for the one seed Yeah, I mean for the yeah, excuse me for the number one pick And yeah, here they are, you know, probably you know kind of on the outside looking in for the playoff picture But almost certainly a 500 team this season. Yeah, that's super interesting It's such a compliment to say that Carolina's league average Drew what have you been doing with home field? I just ran some numbers, you know, it's less than a core point right now A bunch of different ways Yeah, how are you treating that? So first of all, I Think it's important to kind of evaluate home field through the framework of Neutral situations, right? So sometimes you have extreme situations where teams are, you know, they're really in especially poor travel spots or especially difficult stretches of the schedule from breast standpoint and that can sometimes mask what home field advantage really ought to be But the and it's also important to look at home field advantage in terms of win probability as opposed to points Because I would say, you know, 2% win probability added around 50-50 is going to get you two two and a half points but 2% win probability at, you know, 10 is maybe nothing, right? So there is some in some cases depending on what the spread is the home field advantage bump that I apply through the lens of win probability is between, you know, between point point and a half or nothing at all And, you know, realistically in terms of a handicap and in terms of, you know, how I think about, you know, making a wager on a home or away team I'm really not factoring it much at all this season. I mean, it's it's basically neutral We have what, you know, a year and a half worth of data where, you know, the win probability added for a home team is You know, it's effectively zero So it's it's I think that's real signal and I think it's a it's, you know You can attribute a lot of that to You know how the NFL has specifically tried to change the way the game is is officiated You can attribute a lot of that to how teams are specifically planning and in me on and implementing their travel And I would not expect that to suddenly turn on a dime and all of a sudden we see home home teams, you know You know, you know regress back to two two and a half as we come down the home stretch of the season Yeah, absolutely Drew is good time to take a look at the futures market Is there anything that stands out to you on Fando Sportsbook that you'd like to talk about? Yeah, and I mean, I think you can look pretty clearly at the records and the data and get a good feel of what each team ought to be and I think it's pretty unanimous across the Data and analytics and even the odd space that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ought to be the favorites for the NFC title I personally see their performance and I see the Rams performance so far this season as opportunities to Regress back into the pack a little bit I don't think you're gonna see the same level of defensive Standout defense that we've seen from the Bucs through these seven eight weeks here And you know, this this is a classic old handicapping maneuver where you just kind of look at a team that is over performing Defensively through eight weeks and you can say, you know, don't do not count on that team being as good through the you know The second eight weeks of this of their season and I would put the Bucs kind of squarely in that category Rams to I mean both teams a Little thin, you know a little vulnerable to injury. They haven't really been bitten by the injury bug yet Rams Especially, you know, that's a stars and scrubs unit, you know I said and you know, they lose a player like Burgess who's playing really well at safety Against the Bears and does he matter? I mean, maybe not in you know, just in terms of you know, the casual handicap, but you know His replacement player may not, you know may not be even replacement level just because the the way that that team is rostered So I would say the Bucs in the Rams in my opinion as far as price to win the NFC are too high Which then you know, you kind of look down to the next tier of teams teams like the Packers I'm keeping a very close eye on the on the wire to see if they are Realistically in the market for another wide receiver. If they bolster their pass offense, I think that can help us help, you know patch up some of the issues that exist with that defense I know that's weird to say it, but the Packers as currently rostered You can you can run on them You know with impunity if that and when when you come in with a plan to run on them And they still can't stop it That's a problem and you saw that in the NFC title game last year And you know to the degree that they have a even more dangerous passing offense that counters that because you know You're you're gonna be you're gonna be able to gain the lead more effectively and you're not gonna be you know You can kind of neutralize the ability to Defend the run because your team is not gonna be in that game state where they can run, right? And so it's a weird way of saying, you know the Packers can you know can bolster their offense a bit here And you know come up, you know, I'll bump them up in my rankings And you know them in the ballpark of 10 to 1 for the Super Bowl is interesting But but most the team I'm most interested to buy on right now is the New Orleans Saints and it's not close Number one, they've kind of fallen down to the middle of the pack in terms of overall team ranking Just based on how they played I will like point to history and tell you Sean Payton's teams Start the season slow. This isn't new information We have a we have plenty of signal that tells us they treat the first four weeks or so of the season as an extended preseason and You know, they rounded to form through the middle of the season And a lot of what I feel like we a lot of what we saw even not covering against the Panthers It was kind of indicative of Sean Payton from a play-calling standpoint starting to get his fastball I like their sequencing a lot I like the way that they've built and rostered this team around Drew Brees and what he's currently capable of And realistically they have three games coming up against Chicago Tampa And the third game is escaping me right now, but it's a it's a realistically tough test. Oh, San Francisco, maybe? Yeah, San Francisco. That's right. Chicago Tampa, San Francisco And if they can kind of peek through this stretch and win those three games They can entirely Sweep the rest of the board They don't go up against another difficult past events for the you know the entire rest of the season The schedule has broken incredibly lucky for them in terms of who they end up facing towards the end And now that we know a little bit more about these teams And so I can entirely see a scenario play out here where the Saints finished 14 and 2 or 13 and 3 And scooped the number one seed and you know, it's it's tough to project whether they'll have You know fans in stadiums in the playoffs They probably won't just because especially because it's indoors down there But either way if you're have you have drew Brees in that offense inside As opposed to having to go to say Lambo For the NFC title game. I like them a heck of a lot better. So Saints in the ballpark of 7 to 1 or better For NFC title is probably my favorite look across the futures board right now I don't think you can touch much in the AFC side of things because The chiefs are as good as the market thinks and That number is probably only going to get shorter even if they drop a couple of surprising games You know Padma Holmes is playing at that, you know at a level that warrants that much respect And but but my overall Approach and this was going back to even preseason I'm expecting the Ravens to be in the mix Come january, but uh, they have obviously currently their offense is not You know, they're not flexing the way that we expected whatsoever very very different team offensively than we saw in 2019 And I don't think I think it's going to take until probably Late november december before they really start to come together as a unit and play at the same level that we saw last year And I think that's part of their plan Honestly, I think they're looking at this as a longer arc and they realize they peeked too early last year And they're going to try to be you know informed come december january So I'm going to wait and you know, I'm quietly hoping that the Steelers upset the The Ravens this weekend and people continue to cool on them because I don't think we're at the low point now But certainly if if the Steelers look like they're in the driver's seat for the one seat And you know, the chiefs are right there in the conversation with the best quarterback in the NFL You could start to see that number come down a bit and I think it's a good buy buy on time Before you know, and again, this whole you got to look at the Raven schedule. They have cowboys jags giants and and bangles four Five games are against the absolute bottom feeders in the in the nfl They'll fit the other game in there. I think is is cleveland who I think they're obviously they're quite a lot better than as they proved But so basically once they get to that part of their schedule with five games remaining I'm going to hammer the Ravens and hope that they can You know Exercise some of the demons of our last couple playoff runs Like so drew dinzik. You've you've talked about drew breeze. I want to go back to New Orleans You talked about drew breeze and his arm and and the weakness and this causes concern for you Sure, uh, their past defense doesn't quite look like what it's been in the past couple years Any cause for concern? Yeah, I I I honestly I want to give their past defense a little bit of an excuse because They still have talented players, right? It's they still have you know, march on latimore is Extremely talented player marcus williams is a talented player They're they just haven't performed to the level that we've seen in years past And so it's a little bit of a gamble that they're all the sudden going to snap out of it And you know be able to play coverage at the same level that we saw last couple years But even more than that a ton of the You know come specifically like think of the Raiders Raiders game, right? They were subject to some absolutely horrific referring That was so lopsided and just in general the gap between them and the next, you know, the next Most penalized team is huge And I I have a very difficult time thinking that that's something fundamental or You know specific about this particular roster that's gonna Last throughout the rest of the season and you know, if they so if they just play a little cleaner or get you know Games that are officiated a little bit more neutrally, we'll say Then I can entirely see this defense all of a sudden looking a lot better and people are gonna look for reasons Well, why well they have a lot of talent Marcus Davenport, you know, it came up with the game winning play against the Panthers, you know, he's he You know sacks teddy bridge water on third and You know medium that would have had a makeable field goal for joey sly pushes him back Joey sly attempts a 65 yarder and he's a couple inches short, right? Davenport doesn't make that play that game probably goes to overtime and who knows if the saints even win So the fact that you're starting to see some of these, uh, you know key players for the saints making plays is encouraging and I'm you know, I'm Gambling a little bit that it's not it's not it's a matter of the talent is there and it'll manifest as we come down the Stretch. Well, you talked about the saints getting better as the year goes along. I think the defense is the biggest Biggest example of that because it seems like every year They start off slow like they year against, uh, ryan fits patrick and the bucks They went up like 40 points at home in that game And then they become one of the best defenses in football like four weeks later. Great point. Yeah No, it's I don't have any I don't have enough. I don't get it Right I mean if I'm uh, if I'm denis allen and I'm calling that defense. I'm not like throwing games Um, but what but whatever the case is maybe it takes them a little bit longer to kind of figure out roles and responsibilities Maybe they use those first four weeks to experiment a little bit Um, but whatever the you know, however it works out, um, they're relatively healthy. There's no real key Glaring weakness, uh in terms of a talent perspective. So I think I you know, I I'm I'm down on the saints defense now For sure without question. Um, but uh, you know the the numbers the numbers tell me this The saints defense is not playing well. Um, but of all of the priors well, you know that that are kind of pulling from the Preseason that one's the biggest. I mean that defense should be should be better come weeks come week 17 All right, so we are into the saints and waiting a bit on the ravens We'll talk about them in a second but first let's get you to a tongue of my lowest debut It's the rams at the dolphins rams now three point favorites here total is 46 points and it's to us debut And obviously he is a very different quarterback from ryan fits patrick I think we sometimes have an overinflated view of ryan fits patrick personally, uh, but two as a rookie You know in rookies, it's it's tough to adjust the nfl at no preseason So how are you adjusting your view of this team with tula starting instead of fits patrick? Yeah, it's yeah, I can't realistically come up with a prior for tula just because We haven't even seen him take a you know, take a meaningful snap in the nfl at this point And so I I'm mostly staying away from this game. Although I do think there's a decent second half angle I'll just kind of stick to the big picture here with the dolphins, which is you know at at three and three And the you know ryan ryan fits patrick was performing at a top 10 level the day would tell you And would was that gonna last all season probably not right? I mean it's he has a very cyclical nature to his His nfl history that would tell you that you know, you may be at the top at this point And that it was going to go down at some point in the future But uh and and tula, uh, you know, I get why they're doing what they're doing This is this it's a really important organizational decision to find out what you have in that player because they are the They effectively control the 2021 draft given how much draft capital they have from the texan so To the degree that they need to know as soon as possible, whether tula is their quarterback of the future They better get him starts And the obviously the biggest question about him even more so than his quality of play I would say is his ability to stay healthy And so you can't just you know throw him in out there week 12 and you know get a four or five game sample And make any sense out of that you really need to see him be able to do it week in week out And uh, you know show you that his hip is fully healthy and that he can You know play at this level, uh, just physically And and this is an extremely tough test. There's no doubt about it. The rams are at least based on the way that I You know crunch the numbers they're performing at a top five level in the nfl right now And a lot of that is on the basis of they have the best player on defense across the entire nfl and erin donald I don't think that's really controversial Um, you know, maybe he's in the conversation with uh, you know miles garret this year tj watt But uh erin donald is is such a such a unique force and such a difficult Player to defend and he's going up against an offensive line that coming into the season I would have had in the bottom five and yeah, they've played better than that, but It's still very young very inexperienced and they certainly haven't ever gone up against an erin donald So um, I I'm a little concerned about uh, how much time two is going to have to be able to operate in this one I'm not especially in love with the fit of you know, his game With what would be, uh, you know, a quick passing You know get the ball out of your hands quickly and you know neutralize the pass rush through that mechanism So i'm i'm cool on the dolphins into it for now that you know until we until we see something that says otherwise and I that would all support. Well, why aren't you betting the rams then this week and I would tell you well They are really subject to one of the more brutal Scheduling quirks across the entire nfl in terms of travel A lot of people have probably talked about this already this week, but if you didn't already know this is their fourth trip east in just eight weeks and Really in just the last seven weeks Um, and this is their fifth game and on the road in the last seven and that's tough. I mean, it's it's a really difficult You know, it's really difficult to properly account for how much potential fatigue is built up But these guys doing all of this travel And you know, I I'm I'm prepared to see them look a little sluggish Look a little slow coming out of the gate Especially because they just played their last two games in prime time and now here they go You know attend in the morning pacific time, uh, you know, so i'm i'm gonna hold off And try to find a good Approach to back the rams in the second half of this game Because either way if the if the dolphins are up the rams, you know, the dolphins pass Uh, excuse me the dolphins, uh rush attack doesn't scare me to the tune of they're going to be able to put away You know run away and hide and put away this game and shorten this game Rams are going to be able to have a comeback in them. Uh, and if the rams are up at halftime, uh, you know, I really I don't have a ton of respect for the for the dolphins rush defense And I could see the rams, uh, you know doing the same sort of thing that they did to the Washington football team where they just put their foot on their throat So i'm going to back the rams in the second half regardless of game state probably Excellent, uh, let's go over to Steelers at Ravens probably my favorite game, uh for the week Ravens are minus three and a half total at 46 and a half And uh, you know the Steelers defense is incredible The Ravens offense has not been what it was last season. So what are you seeing in this game? I would actually even say as credible as the Steelers defenses, uh, the Ravens are out playing them defensive Ravens are out playing almost everyone right now Yeah, they I mean they are on and they and you know and this shouldn't be surprising because it was a good defense last year they have a good scheme um and They added parts to this defense been the form of Kalei Campbell now Yannick and Gakue and and uh, you know, they drafted You know linebacker in round one Marlin Humphrey has taken another step forward. Maybe you know top three quarterback in the league All told scheme and personnel. This is a fantastic unit And they're gonna need their best performance to beat the Steelers in my opinion because it but it it is strength of the defense against strength of Uh, Pittsburgh, which is to say Pittsburgh has this diverse set of weapons in the passing game And I'm expecting Deontay Johnson goes. I'm expecting uh, juju goes And that they you're gonna have four Potential, you know threats in the passing game that you're gonna have to be aware of But you have depth and personnel in the you know in the secondary for Baltimore, which is huge They haven't you know, not a lot of teams that that Pittsburgh has gone up with can match them strength for strength in that regard So I think that this is going to be a you know a very hard fought You know hard fought contest Steelers offensively to really do much of anything that like especially since You know people will point to well, Ben Rothesberger is great You know when he's been blitzing and he's getting the ball out of his hands A heck of a lot faster this year than we've seen in years past and that's absolutely true But he's also a lot less mobile that he's been in years past And I would even argue less able to just kind of flick guys off and stand in the pocket and you know be able to Deliver a strike down the field. Uh, so the blitz happy, uh, you know Raven's attack kind of coming in on him and making you know making game changing stops through Sacks and fumbles and things like that. I think is a real factor in this one So if there's an edge in that matchup I slightly lean towards uh, Baltimore's defense and then you mentioned it Ed The Baltimore passing offense is not good right now I don't know what they were thinking in the off season not trying to upgrade this wide receiver unit Clearly they have a higher evaluation of marquise brown than I do and miles Boykin than I do and willy sneed than I do But to this point in the season it is one guy who is drawing any attention from defenses and In the passing offense and smark andrews and he in the red zone has cement hands from time to time. So it's it's really not dynamic at all in the passing attack and that also presents a problem because we know That lamar jackson has a one weakness in his game Which is make him throw down the sidelines past 10 yards and he's gonna You know, he's gonna be a little You know unsure of himself in those moments and he's gonna air some balls out that should you know that that should be You know players should be able to make a catch on and oh by the way, his wide receivers aren't getting separation there anyway, so it's uh, it that is definitely sort of A concern as far as you know future ravens back or potentially But uh, you know, but they you know, they do have one advantage With when their offense is on the field and that's that you know, pittsburgh's defensive line is very aggressive It's they're likely going to you know, think you can't do what you just did against derek henry versus lamar jackson Inspect that to work because lamar jackson is going to be able to you know flip You know, he can make some you know, he can make some decisions about You know, whether he's going to keep it in run They're going to have some nice, you know design run schemes. I'm sure they're going to show us some wrinkles We haven't seen so far this season But they are going up against the formidable unit there. I would expect the Steelers can take You know take mark andrew's out of this game and really make it You know, if you're gonna if you're gonna beat us, you're gonna do it on the ground with misdirection and with some You know, you some of your best plays And but so either way I see advantage for both defenses when it all comes down to it slight advantage for baltimore in terms of coaching slight advantage for baltimore in terms of special teams And so I think the line is fair I would have probably made it three so three and a half maybe a little bit of an edge on Steelers But I think the total especially the opening total was just way too high I think this is much more of a field position game much more of a field goals instead of touchdowns and You know all of the edges that I was mentioning that I think favor both defenses amplify that in the red zone And I just have a very tough time seeing how this turns into a shootout And I mean in in years it 46 may feel like a low total in today's nfl But I mean realistically, uh, you know, that's that's not That's not all that high In the last five years worth the data, especially Considering there might even be a little bit of weather factors. So um under under in this game. I think is the right play So it was 49. It's now 46 and a half. That's still high enough where you're willing to go under on that one Yeah, I mean you're crossing a couple key numbers in there, but nothing that I would really be super scared about I mean the highest frequency totals we're seeing landing nowadays in the nfl or 44 51 55 So there's kind of a mushy area there in the 40s And I wouldn't put I wouldn't put probability of landing on 47 48 Or 49 I wouldn't put probabilities any higher than about two three percent on any of us So you're losing, you know, you're losing cumulatively about five percent given the move But I think I still think you have a few percent edge on the under at 46 and a half This is the benefit of your range of outcomes. Uh, the way you do your models So that's it's fun to hear. Let's move now to the 49ers at the seahawks and seahawks two and a half point favorites Now the total here is 54 and the 49ers offense. They're banged up. There's no debo here The running backs for however much that matters they're banged up to but the seahawks can't stop anybody So I don't know if it matters So do you see the 49ers putting up points here despite all the injuries? I don't actually and it's largely because this is now I guess the one thing that I have confidence that seattle can do defensively is stop the run and And if you can turn You know, if you can turn san francisco into a one-dimensional offense where all of the weight of the world is on jimmy grapolo to make chris passes Give me the seahawks every time Realistically like I like jimmy g is a quarterback. He's a fine guy to build your franchise around He's obviously dealing with some health issues this season But if you can specifically, you know, make him Make him beat you down the field with the passing attack With a set of wide receivers that really doesn't have a game changer. I mean george kittle is obviously a game changer But he's a tight end And so you can at least put a couple of hats on him And I would say, you know debo samuel not expecting him to go Jamal adams, I think may go And I think really all the injury information that we have to this point in the season would tell me that You know, seattle is the more healthy team on top of this san francisco Just flew across the country to play new england played there one of their best games If not, I think their most complete game from whistle to whistle Their first half against the rams was better probably but the most complete game they played was against the patriots last week And you're getting a little bit of a market Sell high on the Niners right now and a little bit of a market by low on the seahawks The seahawks absolutely should have won that sunday night football game I have no idea how I'm very aware. They should have won that game. It was not it was not enjoyable I have no idea how they lost let alone didn't cover the three and a half like that should have been In every way shape and certainly didn't help They certainly didn't but a couple of fluky penalties that were completely out of their control I guess out of the control of the cardinals who end up winning right like, you know The seahawks did some some boneheaded things I guess But uh ticky tack personal foul call that extended a drive the you know the the field goal attempt penalty was You know completely unnecessary and then of course the one that took the What would have been the game winning touchdown off the board? He didn't you didn't need to be holding in that spot. So it was a it was a frustrating loss for the seahawks I think they bounced back and I laid the three here. Um got a great number I've blown away that this got bet down across three at some spots As someone who had I had DK Metcalf in DFS and the the seahawks minus three and a half that that holding penalty It will haunt me for a very long time Yeah, I knew a guy that had He had longest reception for DK Matt the DK Metcalf like over 30 something yards for a huge price He had over receiving yards, which was what 70 something ish that would have gone over with that completion that yeah That was a real bummer. Yeah. Well, I mean, I think the reason to move that way is because like san francisco has performed really well this year Sure, and by my metrics like better than seattle despite how explosive they've been on offense But you have to recognize like the 49ers are seriously banged up and probably playing Over their level, right? And I think that's coming in like the markets are taking that into consideration Um, you know in 40 and ours have some injuries in the secondary. Obviously the long-term one with Sherman But with some of their safeties as well So, yeah, I think this is a it's a really interesting game because I mean I think when I looked at my market numbers that had seattle by four And I think that's where a lot of people are coming from because that's that's You know digging past what you've seen in the season so far And I think a seattle defense that probably shouldn't quite be shouldn't be quite so awful as well Yeah, yeah, I mean if They're fundamentally what Hopkins did for arizona exposing them, you know what the What the cowboys did with their three wide receivers and when dak press got was healthy You know, those are the offenses that I'm a little bit more concerned Not concerned about kendrick born Not as concerned about kendrick born nor am I yeah And you know congratulations to kendrick born for 10 receptions 180 yards on sunday sure Yeah All right any other games you see is standing out as being good values in week a true Um, I put a couple of other ones in play, but the one I guess I would kind of key in on here I still think Tennessee has value. I bet this at four. I would still play it at five and a half This is kind of the blowout of the week as far as I could tell you And yeah, I was actually looking around for all markets to see if I could get uh, you know, some of the Some of the higher spreads here because this is just an absolutely perfect get right spot for Tennessee Some of the injuries that matter to um an offensive line that was struggling struggling mightily 32nd best offensive line maybe 31st in the league for Cincinnati Bengals has now lost two starters Um, and you know, we haven't really seen starters It started with the two most important positions and let's act like center And like to me those are the two most important spots of looking at offensive line to lose both in the same time It's tough Yeah, and this is so so the pass rush for Tennessee has been anemic this year and when you're a unit that is struggling like that and now you get to go up against You know this the the worst offensive line in the league with replacement level players Like, you know, these guys got to be licking their chops. I think they're gonna have a hell of a day and on top of that Um, I have no idea You know how the Bengals are getting off the field in the second half here Derek Henry is going to run a muck in the second half DJ reader Is kind of the only guy who I think is a reasonable run stopper for uh for Cincinnati Gino Atkins can generate pressure, but he's not uh, especially a good run stopper in my opinion I don't even know if he'll play because he's on the trading block. So he's been playing like 25 of the snaps anyway right so Not a great not a great, uh, not, you know, if you're trailing by two scores in this game and you're Cincinnati I'm not exactly sure how you are getting the ball back This feels pretty one-way to me And I think Tennessee gets this done in style. So that's probably my favorite look of the week Yeah, the Bengals injury situation the trade situation. It is not great for this specific matchup with Tennessee That is Drew Dinsick. Make sure you follow him on twitter at whale underscore capper and check out the deep dive podcast as well Drew, we appreciate the time. Good luck to you in week eight and with all your other stuff and we'll talk to you again soon Absolutely. Thank you guys again for having me and best of luck this week. Thank you appreciate it Covering the future Big thank you once again to Drew Dinsick for stopping by and spreading his knowledge about week number eight in the nfl And it's always fun to talk to drew. I love the way he analyzes things from a schedule perspective with the futures market and all that He always knows The peaks and the values for each team, but just a really diverse knowledge set when it comes to drew talking about the nfl Yeah, I mean drew is this earthquake engineer and you know runs these numbers with z values Z scores and and everything like that and we get to get deep into that But what you know, when you talk to him, he's got a lot of knowledge about what's actually going on what's going on underneath those numbers coaching tendencies individual players and things like that and So, you know, I mean there's like a spectrum of kind of numbers guys But you know, I had Rob is all on my podcast and you know, he was talking a lot about yeah, I run my numbers and yes I use them but he's he's also happy to go with what he sees on the field and Yeah, I always think that's interesting. You know, I tend to lean more on my numbers Rufus Peabody tends to lean a lot on his numbers as well So just a just a spectrum, but I do do Definitely respect what drew and Rob do In terms of really digging into the game Well, I mean with I think that's the thing that I like about drew so much is that you can tell How much knowledge he has about both? Because he has this I know that you talked about it Talked we talked about it too. Like the way he runs his numbers is like he actually runs the probabilities of Things in across numbers. He doesn't have a median number. It's the probabilities that Numbers get across different numbers and that's just it's such a smart way to do things So obviously there's a lot of math knowledge involved or it probably comes from his day job like he said studying earthquakes and stuff, but He can tell that he's watching these games and getting knowledge and getting information from that as well And it's nice to know How deep that knowledge goes in both departments because that's that's valuable intel to have Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I mean, I think Models are useful and models can be a good tool for stuff But like you you you must understand the limitations of those or you end up with things like the 2008 financial crisis Right. So, I mean, yeah, I I think it's really important to to understand the game and and you know, I mean personally I watch a lot of football I do but yeah, I don't as much as those two So I really respect that and I think the key thing is is at least for me in watching games is I can better Better know context. I can get context from numbers So like I just need to know where to look and watching games helps me know where to look and I think that's a really helpful thing For me. So let's move into covering the future for week number eight starting off with you Ed, you're talking about a game that I think is going to be a delight to watch on sunday At least I hope it is that is the raiders against the browns. I know this isn't like the most exciting game overall, but I find both teams to be exciting because their defenses suck and I think bad defense is great So, uh, what are you seeing in this game between the raiders and the browns? Yeah, so that's interesting. So one of my notes I have here is that yeah, the laws Vegas's defense doesn't seem good I've talked before about their pass offense and and how much respect I have for them and how they're doing well and success rate and that and passing success rate in particular and that That that is all persistent. They are very good. They're fourth in my numbers But the defense as you said doesn't look good, right? They're 31st in the nfl when you look at points a lot per game But I think that's really deceiving because when I look at my adjusted success rate, they're 17th So they're they're very league average and I think what happens Do you remember they had that stretch of game where they lost five fumbles? I think they they they were the defense got some pretty poor Field position there. Um, you know stuff that you just can't do much about um So, you know big discrepancy in terms of points a lot per game and where they are in my adjusted success rate Now, I don't think this is a good defense, but Um, it's not it's not terrible. Um, oh, so let's look at Cleveland You know by by those numbers like baker mayfields looking much better than than he did last year last year in my adjusted passing success rate They were 20th. They're moved up to 10th this season. So definitely things are looking in the right direction Except the you know, the defense has been terrible. Um So they're worse than the league in my adjusted success rate So again, probably a game with a lot of points, but what I really see in this game Is that the data from this year really favors las vegas? And one of the reasons is because of strength of schedule, right? So think about who these teams have played Cleveland has got Cincinnati twice Washington and dallas So bottom bottom feeder teams. Um, okay, and we we do need to acknowledge that they've also played two of the best teams in Pittsburgh and and baltimore as well Um, but look at who los vegas is faced, right? So they've gone up against norleans got the win there Kansas city got the win there tampa bay, uh, did not get the win there. Um So their kind of easiest game was like against carolina That is a team that we expected to be terrible, but like it's shown a lot of life on on offense at least so um So so anyways, uh, I'm I like I like los vegas in this game. I'm sorry. I'm trying to look at what my prediction says but it definitely favors, uh, los vegas plus two and a half and um, You know, you know, obj is not going to play in this game, you know But bakers not going to have his his primary weapon as well. That just makes me lean even more Uh, that way so But anyways, I like los vegas and a big part is the string of the schedule adjustments that that I do Yeah, and like the interesting thing about that is the browns have been very Scheduled dependent because you mentioned they faced pittsburgh and baltimore Like what happened in those games is they got absolutely rocked. They've been Very much dependent on their situation and That gets tougher when you lose a guy oda beckham I know they played really really well against since natty and since natty, you know, they're terrible But like that does not mean you should expect their offense to be better going forward when you lose someone who's objectively a good football player in oda beckham like One game 20 22 or 25 drop backs Is different than the next eight games without beckham Like you can do well in that small sample and still not expect them to get better And I think that's been a narrative that has kind of floated this week that maybe they'll be better without beckham I have a really really hard time believing that Because I think he's a good football player and this is a bold statement But losing good football players is a bad thing. It's a bad thing So so my numbers have flew in by about a half point. Okay. Yeah a tight game You know, there's a lot of things that go into that number but the data from this season is certainly in favor of los vegas And pushing my prediction towards that And I think the good thing with los vegas is they've always graded out well in a success rate perspective But their ability to generate big plays is better with henry rugs healthy He's been healthy the past two games. So that should make them higher upside too, which I find really intriguing Let's move now to that uh pittsburgh versus baltimore game I actually do have a play in this game and I like the ravens minus three and a half This game opened at five and a half. So there's been some pretty heavy heavy movement Towards uh, the stealers here, and I think that's fair enough Uh, it makes sense. I can understand why because of the conversation we's had about this ravens passing offense Not being the best so clearly there's been a lot of money on the stealers potentially recognizing that that ravens offense It hasn't been that great But the reason that I Want to go with the ravens here is the other side of the football Talking about this ravens defense against the stealers offense and after adjusting for schedule The ravens rank second in overall defense according to number fires metrics. They are fourth against the pass First against the rush. So either direction. They've been awesome The stealers look good on paper offensively because they are fourth Or sorry, they're sixth in points per game this season. That's an awesome number You want to rank well there But true kind of alluded to this they faced a lot of really bad teams If you look at their opponents defensive ranking so far this year in our order They're opposing defensive rank 23rd overall defensively sixth 29th 19th 28th and 20th So the browns have faced a good schedule like uh an easy schedule But the sealers has actually been easy even easier So you kind of expect them to put up points against those teams Once you adjust for that schedule the stealers offense actually ranks 13th by number fires metrics So they're not bad But i'm curious if they're good enough to move the ball against this specific defense baltimore's offense Has not been anything special so far this year. They're actually worse than the stealers by number fires metrics, but if I We're betting on a bounce back betting for regression on any offense I'm going to bet on the ravens rather than the stealers in this specific game I'd rather bet on lamar jackson right now than ben rothasberger So as of right now three and a half is the best number that you can get According to odds fire I'm going to fire at that number and bank on a bounce back here for the ravens I am okay laying three and a half and getting some action on a game that should be pretty fun to watch But what do your numbers say here about the ravens and the stealers? Yeah, I mean my numbers have it exactly three and a half So Because I find it hard to you know, sidewise I find it hard To I mean, I think baltimore slipped from last year. I think we see that what's happened with their offense I think Pittsburgh's rising. I mean the defense has been awesome. Um Still some questions about them on the offensive side of the ball So, you know, when you put those all together you kind of land on exactly where the market is I'm kind of ambiguous on the side But as we talked about like I think the under I think I like the under in this because Because I think the defenses are really good. I think it's gonna like a field position game as drew said Drew had that one too. So under 46 and a half are both ed and drew and I will take the ravens minus three and a half Hopefully this game, you know plays out where it's close because it would be a fun one to watch We can get four quarters of good football from the bar Jackson and the stealers defense That is all that we have for today But as mentioned, this was our second show of the week So make sure you go check out our episode with Eli Hershkovich breaking down week number nine in college football You can get that by searching for recovering the spread wherever you get your podcasts And while you're there, please make sure you subscribe and leave a rating and review as well We always appreciate it. That does help us out quite a bit ed What is going on for you at the football analytics show and at the powerink.com? Yeah, absolutely trying to write about my analytics on my free email newsletter Uh, I've gotten some nice unsolicited feedback on that this season Which you can check out and sign up for at the powerink.com And great conversation with Rob Pizzola on the football analytics show Rob is uh, one of the best in the business. So definitely don't want to miss that I was like listening to Rob. So I'll be sure to check that out and always a good time for sure. So Rob, uh, Rob hates uh, Boston sports teams So I got to ask him whether he liked closing line value or watching the Patriots lose more, which was fun That's really funny. I got this from Nick Costos He threw he did this like whatever you prefer at me one of the times I was on uh, yeah on You better you bet and uh, so when I have a guest on for the however, you know the the multiple times someone I know pretty well Yeah, I think that just three of them at the end and I've got some good ones I got Bill Connolly to yell at me for Making him pick between the Sun Belt and the Bundesliga. Wow Yeah, he wasn't happy about having to answer that I would say that Rob's having a great year with the Patriots being down, but he's a Cowboys fan, right? He's a Cowboys. Yeah, I should we should have talked about that more. Yeah He is a Cowboys fan poor Rob the one year you can he can be happy about the Patriots losing and he loses Dak Prescott so uh Poor went out for Rob and uh, make sure you check him out on the football analytics show check out ed thepowerank.com and also At the power rank on twitter. I am at Jim Sonnis j i m s a n n e s We also had our dfs podcast earlier today That went up on the number fired daily fantasy podcast Feed with myself and Brandon Godula breaking down the week eight nfl dfs slate There is a lot of wind to consider on that slate. We discussed What the data says about wind and how much that impacts quarterback performance and stuff for running backs and receivers as well Find that on the number fired daily fantasy podcast feed also Make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread and follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to Calvin Theobald our video producer for running the video side of things here today Thank you cow as always. Thank you to Drew Dinsick and illa hershkovich for being our guests this week And good luck to all of you with your bets in college football in the nfl We'll talk to you once again next week. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network