 I'm your host Steve Zerger. This is our twice monthly program called Looking to the East. Thank you very much for tuning in. We have a very special show on tap for you all today. Since we are coming to the end of the year, I decided to assemble our usual cast of characters, although we do have a new guest today, to take a look at what has gone on in Japan over the last year. So this is a roundup show, taking a look at political economic trends that we think are interesting to talk about in Japan, and then also talking about Japan's continuing relationships with its neighbors, China, and then also the very important relationship between Japan and the United States. So we have Paul Scott with us. Paul, thank you so much for attending. Paul's former professor at Kansai Gai Dai, and now as a professor at the Catholic School of Lille. I think, did I say that correctly, Paul? Catholic University of Lille, that's correct. Very good. So thank you for attending. And we have a Jiri Masteki, who also has a Kansai Gai Dai connection in that he is a graduate of the Asian Studies Program, currently a partner at Kitahama Law in Osaka. So thank you, Jiri, for attending. Appreciate it. Hello, thank you. You're welcome. And our new guest today is Taro Tsuda. Taro is a professor, history professor, assistant professor at Kansai Gai Dai University. So I thought it'd be interesting to have his perspective since he studies modern history of Japan and also is following pain attention to the current political trends in Japan and so forth. So let's get started. Let's talk about what we consider to be the major factors, major events that occurred in Japan over the last year in 2022. Obviously COVID is something, not just Japan, but worldwide countries have been struggling with. It's interesting to me that Japan continues unfortunately to be the leading country in terms of the infection rate I checked before the show started and Japan over the last few days had over 100,000 infections. Looks like it's gone down a little bit maybe today in the reports that are coming in so far down in the 60,000 range. So it considers to be a factor here but not one that seems to be materially influencing or changing behavior. Everything seems to be running as per normal even though these numbers are so high compared to the early days of COVID. You guys all remember when we just had 3,000 infections the country was shutting down. Any comments or observations about how Japan is handling COVID? I might say one thing which is that I agree with you that Steve that we're coming out of COVID or trying to come out of COVID here in Japan just like the rest of the world but Japan's baseline is a little bit different than other countries as far as COVID protection. So I was just in Europe and Europe no one wears masks. Very little social distancing. It's almost as if COVID hasn't really happened. Japan however, it's a completely different reality. People here still wear masks. There's still social distancing policies. You have to be careful in restaurants. There's still plexiglass partitions and wherever you go. I think the measures here are very different but despite that, I think that we're having tourism is coming back. At least in the Osaka area or the Kansai area it's 90% of pre-COVID. So that's some good economic news. So look, I think Japan is dealing with it but there haven't been a lot of changes as far as people's behavior that that behavior has been much more careful than in other countries where pretty much the precautions have been disregarded in a lot of sense. If I had more hair to pull out of my head, I would but what's always annoyed me is the media and NHK does this all the time and Japanese news does this all the time. It's almost the first news story, it's the infection rate but the real story should be the death rate and the death rate and the mortality rate is extremely low and that's why here in Europe with the death rate of 0.01% people are basically juries completely right. People aren't even taking the fourth vaccination. The government is not saying COVID is over but psychologically and behaviorally people are tired of it. And if I can make one more point Steven you may be interested that Hewlett Packard bought a company called Polly for 3.3 billion dollars just a couple of months ago and Polly focuses in on distance on working at home audio and visual and that is really interesting that has Japan changed its work habits are people still having to go to the office or obligated to go to the office and that certainly has changed in the United States I think fundamentally but in Japan I'd let the people living in Japan answer that I would say no or not yet. Paro do you have any perspective on this? We're teaching now in person at Kansai Gaidae and even though the numbers are high there's no chance of interruption of that there's no possibility of us going to online education again but all the students wear masks in the classroom all the professors wear masks in the classroom my sports club just changed their policy this is Konami guys the Japanese famous one and they no longer require masks in the gym now and guess what 100% of the Japanese people in the gym are still wearing masks it doesn't make any difference the company has said no more it's not necessary everyone is still wearing masks I was quite surprised to see that I just had a class yesterday that focused on the pandemic and East Asia and then at the end of the class I asked the students what do you think of Japan's how Japan has been handling it they said that they think people have been behaving responsibly but maybe a little bit too cautious they wish they could take off their masks like people in Europe and in the US so I found that interesting but I thought people are following all the precautions but they're not necessarily doing so completely out of their own what they would do otherwise so it's maybe social pressure mostly that's what I would conclude as well very interesting aspect of Japanese culture alright guys let's move on to what I think to be one of the major stories and I've done a couple of shows on this already and that has to do with the obvious assassination of course that was a huge shock to the country that alone but then there was a subsequent scandal as to the motivation of the person who killed Abe having to do with Abe's connection to the unification church and then it kind of spun out from that to the incredible number of connections between the ruling party the LDP and other parties in Japan between their organizations and the unification church I think the initial strategy on the part of the LDP was to just hope this story would go away but it hasn't it's been a remarkably powerful story so what are your observations or comments about that maybe I can start with you Jiri on this time you've been watching this it's really interesting isn't it I thought this would go away like so many scandals do in this country but this one is not no it hasn't but the issue of the unification church and politics in Japan generally is not really a new issue here in Japan right I mean the unification church has been around you know for decades and the issue of the unification church has been around for decades and people giving their money to the unification church has been around for decades this is you know it hasn't been as much in the forefront until the the assassination really sort of brought it you know back into people's consciousness so I think it just reflects an ongoing well issue of government interaction and you know it's not that much and like at least knows it from the American perspective it's not unlike you know people talk about for example the involvement of evangelicals or the evangelical church influencing politics and you know that vein nonetheless the assassination really really brought it brought this issue to the fore again at the same time what I would say look I as an American again we tend to put things in our own cultural context you know when I was here I thought okay well this assassination is going to be like a JFK moment of deep reflection and you know shock to the you know the Japanese psyche really hasn't been I mean it hasn't been it hasn't been this huge sort of you know a reckoning of what's wrong with our society you know where where have we got it hasn't resulted in that so that for me was a little bit you know I thought it would actually have more impact but it hasn't and those are just my thoughts yeah I agree with you that story now I mean obviously Abe is remembered and the Jiminto party will have like memorial type of activity but the bigger story for the last what at least three or four months now has been this connection with the unification church that's what's on the daily television programs I don't know how many times I've seen Jiminto politicians in the diet kind of confessing it was like they're admitting that they met on these days and they've received this money it's been almost like a ritual yeah one other point I mean that I also found a little bit surprising was that when they had the they decided to do a state funeral for former prime minister Abe and there were actually people who were saying well he doesn't deserve one you know why are we there was sort of a controversy as to whether or not the state funeral was even warranted for Abe which again was an interesting debate to observe what is your perspective on this what is an interesting phenomenon for us foreigners to look at on the unification church issue I found it very interesting in the political and the Japan times which talked about how the unique structure of the electoral system and how campaigns work makes it susceptible for this kind of involvement so it's not something really that new and as we discussed and I don't think it would be a decisive factor in any big political change but it might fuel lower approval ratings and more discontent with the political system so I don't think it would be decisive but it might contribute to thank you thank you for providing a bridge for me to the next topic and that is Kishida's who is Japan's prime minister continuing low popularity in part because of this unification issue among other challenges that he's faced economic as well the weakening of the end though Paul I know you watch this very carefully is Kishida going to last he seems to be under criticism now by his own party those that are more in the Abe camp are the more conservative part of the LDP Well elections are in schedule until 2025 and so I think I imagine he will last unless there's another scandal or another shock which is not you know impossible the problem of course is a problem for most economies all economies that were affected by COVID is money was borrowed and countries are in debt and is 266% of GDP in debt the highest of any developed country or developing country and how are you going to pay it and this is a tax problem and I know from the 2022 budget that let me remember that Japan that Kishida had to supplement 660 billion yen to prop up social security taxes and they're not going to raise the consumption tax now but I think they're going to raise the corporate tax they're not going to I don't think they're going to raise income tax because that affects everyone but how same in France the same in Britain the same United States more and more in debt this is this is the most type of policy within within any political party who do you tax and how much and what's fair right in the news in the last week or so the prospect of increased taxes in order to fund the dramatic increase in defense spending that's right that maybe it's a legacy of the obvious leadership and so forth because he was very supportive of growing the military and the budgets now are proposed budgets for the defense spending on the part of the government are being doubled and the question to your point Paul is who's going to pay for that how is that going to be paid for is it going to be corporate taxes or personal taxes and all this uncertainty and the prospect of taxes I think is helping to keep Kishida's ratings and the ratings of his cabinet quite low but as I recall there they're somewhere in the 30% range now very very low I think there's a minister of economic security in Japanese politics and he has come out against a tax increase so that's a very public thing to say inside the government by the way have you been following this issue as well um yeah I think that's maybe the most recent development that the this proposal to increase the defense budget and the debate about how to how to pay for it as you said so yeah I think that will be a very difficult choice for the government to make and but I think there are other so there's the influence of former Prime Minister Abe and his faction but they're also the recent international events in East Asia that have fueled so China you once again have provided a segue for me so you're really turning out to be a wonderful guest helping me to move from topic to topic so obviously the increase in defense spending is as a result of the tensions in East Asia primarily with China and the rest of the region so there does seem to be some reaching out on the part of the Kishida government to have a rapprochement between Japan and China but the fact that Japan is raising its defense spending of course is not going to make China very happy and I don't know I haven't seen anything specifically from China on that but I'm sure they're going to be quite critical and bring back the the specter of World War two and all of those those days but I know you're interested in this topic quite a bit you had suggested that we talk about it do you have any insights as to how Japan-China relationship will evolve now that Japan is taking a much more aggressive position when it comes to spending on military right well you know the issue for China is that first of all China because of covid because of the increased militarism because of their perceived support for Russia vis-a-vis the Ukraine war China's image right now among at least the sort of democratic world is at a low and you've also had developments within China again sort of the reshuffling the consolidation by Premier Xi of his power it and you know the lingering issues that were going on before covid including the you know the artificial islands you know the claims about the South China Sea those really haven't subsided and you know the fear is if you don't have efforts by the Japanese government by the US government by other Asian countries we're going to be entering into a cold war here in East Asia which will be very unfortunate I think for everybody here and I think a good thing in Asia is that most of the players here realize that and so hopefully there will be efforts you know again which will also you know include the United States to try to I don't know dial back or again I get I guess the word Rappelsmois is probably the best word to try to less intentions so that we don't you know slide back into a you know a cold war mentality at least you know vis-a-vis China Russia is a completely different animal I think I don't the relationship that the world is going to have with Russia after the Ukraine war is going to be very different possibly even much worse than with the Soviet Union during the cold war so we'll see those are my thoughts you know Stephen if I could add that you know maybe over the top 10 stories of 2022 it's of course number one is Ukraine I would imagine but it would be the fragility of the supplies of the supply chain and who could possibly survive a Chinese attack invasion of Taiwan what would that do to supply chains and who China is more fragile I think in that regard I don't want to you know maybe then Japan but even in 2022 look at the inflation and the cost of food in Japan that's I think that's on the top of our list. Yeah I agree with you Paul I think it's more dramatic in the states because the numbers are in the 7 to 8% range but it's as a consumer you know someone who goes to the grocery store or Costco or wherever I go I've noticed that the prices have significantly increased and incomes are not increasing in Japan so that's true also in the United States I was reading the prices are going up and incomes are stable or actually trending down so that could create more political tension and then lead to greater criticism or unpopularity of the Kashida government at this point Taro do you have you notice the prices in the local stores in Hidakata going up as well I certainly see that in Kobe Yeah definitely things like vegetables and cheese I think cheese especially seems to have been going up a lot and in terms of China I think there are two like contradictory influences one is the Ukraine as we discussed the Ukraine Russia war is increasing tensions in East Asia and between the US Japan side and the China side but on the other hand it seems like domestic influences of both China and Japan seem to encourage a better economic relationship between China and Japan so it's hard to tell which way it will actually go Yeah Japan is always caught between their economic interests and their number one trading partner which is China has been for many years and the political realities that occur and Japan's strong alliance with the United States and kind of being most of the time locked step with the United States on its political positions and so forth so it found it interesting how the most recent meeting between Kishida and Shi was so positive amid all this other stuff that's going on so maybe that's because of the economic interests between the two countries but Alright we're running out of time we just have a few more minutes left but the last thing I wanted to talk about is Japan's relationship with the United States which of course continues to be quite strong I'm wondering if any of you have a perspective on the recent midterm elections and the fact that the Democrats were able to exceed expectations and hold the Senate barely and unfortunately lost the house so that does seem to provide the context for consistency between Japan and the United States in terms of foreign policy and Biden is still he's not considered a prime duck because he's I don't know if he's responsible but he is being attributed as being part of the reason why the Democrats did well in the midterms so I think that adds a sense of stability perhaps do you guys agree with that perspective that the midterms are actually helpful in terms of maintaining a positive Japan-U.S. relationship going forward at least for the next couple of years or so I'm not sure either the Democrats will have learned either both sides will have learned something from this election neither side will learn something from this election or it will be one and the other and I think there's a lot to be learned when we go to 2024 and I read a poll that now Democrats think 71% of Democrats think that Biden will win in 2024 I'm not sure if that's the correct message from this midterm the country I think from what I've read wants neither Trump or Biden to run in 2024 but that's not in the hands of the American that's in the hands of of other forces I would say the political machinery and so forth and party the contrast would be Biden against Trump we've talked about this before and I think the general perspective is that under Trump although there was a strong relationship between Abe and Trump during his period there was a lot of instability and to kind of chaos and now Biden although maybe not quite as inspiring as you'd like him to be at least it seems stable one factor is our ambassador Rahm Emanuel so I'm hearing through this too they love him I have people telling me that he's been the best ambassador over the last 30 years or so as a former Chicagoan Master Emanuel is the former mayor of Chicago he has a reputation for getting things done he's not an ideal and he is he's very practical and he focuses on the task at hand as opposed to again all these ideological arguments that Democrats and Republicans like to focus on yeah any observations on the US-Japan relationship given the election results in United States and also the fact that his popularity perhaps is so low yeah I think for now the status quo is maintained and I think even though Prime Minister Kishida's approval ratings is declining I think it's still not in the danger zone so especially in terms of foreign policy the status quo will be maintained for the foreseeable future as I can see it alright well we're out of time but I have to you know I remember the McLaughlin report right he always ended with predictions so we don't have time to go into any detail predictions but do you feel that 2023 will be on balance a positive year do I get a thumbs up or a thumbs down in terms of your sense of what's going to happen over the next year so Paul why don't I start with you it has to be a resolution of Ukraine of course and then other dominoes fall from that and whether or not Xi genius is knowing when to stop and China has to understand its limitations it's mismanaging its economy mismanage COVID 20% people are predicting that the Chinese GDP will go down in 2023 wow that'll be shocking that's man-made because of poor policies poor policies in Europe as well so it may get better very very diplomatic response Paul as I would expect how about you Jerry can you be more definitive you're out in the law firm I think on the COVID front I think on the COVID front things will get better I think countries will start to open up I think travel will start to come back to what we think of as normal so on the COVID front yes I do see a positive outlook on the economic and political I would have to agree with Professor Scott that it's going to really depend on what happens both with the Ukraine war as well as with China and that is to be determined all right I'm turning you to you as my last hope for a strong positive response what's your view on next year I think that I think the current trends will generally continue so neither huge improvements nor huge backsliding but I agree that what's going on in China is one of the most important one of the most interesting things all the tough decisions that she has to make about COVID policy as well as the Ukraine situation so and relations with Japan so I'm really looking at that and also if there are any big developments in the war between Russia and Ukraine so but I hope things will continue stably all right okay we'll need to leave it at that thank you very much guys for participating this has been fun really appreciate your perspective your opinions about this so I'll leave it at that thank you very much for our viewers for tuning in really appreciate it and look forward to another episode of looking to the east in the future alright that's a wrap thank you very much guys bye bye everyone thank you so much for watching think tech Hawaii if you like what we do please like us and click the subscribe button on YouTube and the follow button on Vimeo you can also follow us on Facebook Instagram and LinkedIn and donate to us at thinktecawaii.com Mahalo