 A date has been set for the by-election that could decide Keir Starmer's future. Batley and Spen will go to the polls on the 1st of July. There is a by-election there because the incumbent MP for the constituency, Tracey Brabin, is moving on to become the West Yorkshire mayor. So in 2019, Tracey Brabin won, but we have only 42.7% of the vote. You can see the Conservatives were on 36%. There's only a sort of three and a half thousand majority for the Labour Party. Slightly different dynamic to win Hartley-Paw because the Brexit party didn't get much in this constituency. They only got 3.2%. But you have a wild card, which is the heavy woollen district independence whose candidate was Paul Halloran. They got 12.2%. So it'd be interesting where those votes go. Now the heavy woollen district independence, they do have some crossover with UKIP, some of the same personnel. So it's quite possible they have a similar voter base, but it'll be interesting to see where they go. It's not as obvious as when it comes to the Brexit party. The obvious comparison here, as I've already intimated is Hartley-Paw. That was the by-election that Labour lost catastrophically really earlier this month. Now it's similar in the sense that it's traditionally Labour votes in place and it did vote for Brexit. At the same time, it didn't vote for Brexit to quite the same degree that Hartley-Paw did. So in Hartley-Paw, there was 70% leave in battalion spend and we think about 60% leave. I say we think because the boundaries of the EU referendum weren't on this constituency, but that seems to be the best estimate that it was about 60%. So Brexit, but not as Brexit. Another difference with Hartley-Paw is that it also has a much larger ethnic minority population. That should be more favourable to Labour. It also includes a large Muslim community. Now that is why one particular candidate seems to think he can go into the constituency and cause an upset. That's George Galloway. The political class here has taken the voters that I see around me entirely for granted. They assume that you're a vote bank, that you'll vote for them whatever they do or more often whatever they do not do. They know the things that matter to you but they don't care. For example, during Gaza you were crying, they were supporting Israel in the bombardment. The leader of the Labour Party, against whom I'm standing here, doesn't matter who else is on the ballot paper, I'm standing against Keir Starmer. Why? Because Keir Starmer has made it clear, let's be fair, he's been honest. He said, I am a Zionist without equivocation. The meaning of equivocation is unconditional. He unconditionally supports Israel. Well I unconditionally support the Palestinians and I have been doing so for 50 years, not yesterday or last week but for 50 years. I unconditionally without equivocation support the right of the Palestinian people to be free and I think there are thousands of people in Batle and Spen who agree with me on that. Georgia Galloway trying to make Palestine a big issue in this election, Labour have been fairly weak on it. He's saying, I unconditionally stand with the Palestinians, presumably lots of people in the constituency will like to hear. He has caused massive upsets before, he has beaten Labour in constituencies with large Muslim populations. This time around, I think it's unlikely he'd win but the way he's sort of pitching himself against Keir Starmer, I think he's trying to help Labour lose essentially. Do you think he could manage that? Let's look at this kind of as a sequence of what he's got going for him and against him. First, it's only a month long, which is a problem for him. He can't win in a month. No, he can't. Secondly, you've got Covid, so the extent that he can have rallies, hostings, if there are hostings indoors, multiple hostings, he's going to clearly cause major problems for Labour. If we were having this with Hartlepool, less so, because people are going to hear less from him. So I think there's a lot of moving parts here. I think in 2017, he only got 2,500 votes in Manchester Gorton in a by-election, but 2,500 votes here, which I think would be the baseline, that's the bottom I think here, would be enough probably to really screw Labour. 3,500 majority, you've got these independents who are quite far to the right, you've got Brexit issue and so on. I think if you get 2,500 then Labour lose this. And like you say, Michael, people say he got 20,000 votes in Scotland or whatever. George Galloway's forte is foreign policy in the Middle East. He won 2005 by Bethnal Green as a respect candidate, Michael. He beat Labour and burned Bethnal Green as a respect candidate. During that campaign, Michael, he went to Bangladesh, right? He didn't just campaign into our Hamlets, he literally went to Bangladesh campaigning. It's just unbelievable. And then in Bradford, in Bradford West, I believe, what year was that? 20, it wasn't 2014, was it 20? Anyway, Bradford West before 2015, when he lost to Nashar. By the way, when he lost to Nashar, he still got 8,500 votes. He's beaten Labour twice, running as a respect candidate, running as somebody who's very principled on foreign policy. And to be fair to him, the only thing he's ever been consistent on is foreign policy stuff. He said horrific things about, for instance, Nashar. He said some really, really bad things about many people he's run against. His views on the union has kind of tilt the right on cultural issues, recently is kind of odd. He's a political narcissist, but he's very good at this, Michael. What we just saw there was George Galloway at his launch. And actually, there was a photo going around of Kim Ledbetter, who's the Labour candidate. She actually went to the same place. But the people, they were wearing the Palestine T-shirts. The difference is, those people wearing the Palestine T-shirts had sort of vote George Galloway when he was there. So we can already see he's getting endorsements from people that Kim Ledbetter's not getting. A shorter campaign also doesn't suit Labour necessarily, because they're meant to have this ground campaign, although clearly under Gears Timer, that's gone. So I think the shorter campaign, the presence of George Galloway, I think the weakness nationally of Keir Starmer, I think Labour loses by a couple of thousand. That may change, right? That may change. Kim Ledbetter was a candidate, was a Hail Mary of a candidate. They rarely work. They very rarely work. Actually, I think that demonstrates Labour's desperation here, but they can work. So we'll see. But I think she has big problems and I think she'll lose. And the question is, if she does lose, what happens to Keir Starmer? I mean, it probably is worth emphasising for the record that while on the face of it, George Galloway standing against Keir Starmer for being unprincipled on the Israel-Palestine conflict, that might seem fair enough on some level. He also has a history of being a very unpleasant person very recently. I mean, especially very recently, when he was running against Nazshar, part of her back story is that she was in a forced marriage and suffered abuse within that marriage. He said she was basically lying about all of that, giving quotes in newspapers saying the ex- abusive husband has denied being abusive. You know, real, real nasty campaigning. So I'm 100% not back in Galloway in this constituency. But at the same time, he is exploiting weaknesses that I think, you know, Keir Starmer has brought upon himself to some degree. Also in the constituency, someone who I think will be much less of a threat to anyone is Lawrence Fox. It's unlikely he'll be standing, but he is pictured here with Paul Halloran. So he is the candidate who I explained to you earlier, came third last time around with the heavy woollen district independence. He got 6,400 votes. I presume probably Lawrence Fox wants him to stand for his reclaim party. But I would have thought that Paul Halloran will say that actually I can do much better as a local independent than with your party that has, you know, no supporters. Quick fire round. Will Labour win or lose this constituency? And will Keir Starmer go? We'll see. I think they'll lose it. The question is how badly. If they lose it like Hartlepool, 7,000, 8,000 votes, which I can't foresee. If they lose that, he has to go and he will go. And from what I'm told by sources, in the last couple of weeks really, in the last week, the Labour right is losing confidence with Keir Starmer too. That includes bureaucrats, that includes people on the NEC, that includes MPs. They're not defending him anymore. And I think they don't want to be associated with somebody who goes down really badly. And it looks like they may go down really badly in battle in Spen.