 OK. Hello to everybody. I am Askanjo Scambiati. And I am in the first year of PhD. So now I show you some preliminary results of my research. So I study something different because I'm looking for the Adri circulation, especially the link between the tropical precipitation and the Adri circulation. Včešta biti srkulacija o vzve. Zato znam, da vzve, da vzve, da vzve cel izgleda in vzve, da je energija, momentu in mojstru z vzve, da je estratropija. Prvši sjanč, ki vzve, da vzve vzve, vzve, da vzve, da je Halley. Zato se zelo v komentu, da je Halley, da je vzve, da je vzve. ​​and was the first scientist to describe the manner in where differential heating can explain fluid motion. But it doesn't explain why we have this ersterly component of the surface concentration. Then the next centuries, the Adley understood the relevance of the angular momentum. na srpne, da imamo tento terzen stajne componenti vsega strade. Vsega adelja je vsegje, da je vsega zamemaridiona, in ima intensitivne zelojnosti in zvrčenje klimat. Vsega adelja je zelojnosti, na kajštama zelojnosti, in je variabilitiva začala življenje ljudi. Zato, da se prišli, neče se o svetu adresirikulacijenih. Svetu se, da je izgleda svetu adresirikulacijenih v mediterijnje regionu, na Australiju in Kaliforniju, in tudi, da je šifta z vsej od vsej adresirikulacijenih vsej od vsej vsej z vsej od vsej stran, in to je konectiljo prezettak. In nekaj nekaj je vzelo na vso motovlj vse, ker smo nekaj nekaj, nekaj načal, nekaj nekaj ustvarim, kjer jaz je, in da smo nekaj nekaj načal na rejmenu, ali, da njetimo načal na dvega adresela, vse prezettak v tropici treba nekaj nekaj, da ta nekaj se koncentrati nječ. Prezivno utravim izgleda je, da je izgleda D'Agostino in D'Onello izgleda izgleda izgleda v 3 datacete, r.A. Interim, r.A. 20 C.M. in r.A. 20 C. Zgleda izgleda izgleda ima prišelja, prišelja, če je prišelja. Vsezaj vzpravimo pusten, da je vzpravima nederilj saj, in način način za toz nezpravim. In v the same way the strength of the others regulation is given by the maximum of the string function, 14-other hemisphere, and the minimum values of string function for the Southern hemisphere. Whereas the Northern edge and the Southern edge, so to define the edges of the other circulation, are defined using this other quantity, that is called the bulk stream function, that is a weight average of the stream function between 150 and 700 ectopascal. So we define the edge of the other circulation as the zero-constant latitude. In this case in this graph I show as the S-desired dotted line. V tej grafiji najbolj imelem mesecije vzelo in ta vzela v sezonu, v dj, f, in dj, j, j. Vzelo je razgleden R20CM, zato počkaj zelo svoje odglede izvedanje z R20CM in R20CM. Tudi je, skupaj, Write these method, so using to define the northern edge and southern edge, the zero-clones angle latitude of thisesting function. We reconstruct the time. Seles of the northern edge and the southern edge for all data-set the they use. v red, v toh red line še erat 20 cm, so erat 20 c is the dotted line, then the other red line is erat 20 cm, and the red line is era entry. We use the whole period, so whole data set from 1900 to 200 and to 2010. We can notice that there isn't a polar wall shift of the northern edge. On the other hand, we have a polar wall shift of the southern edge, but it's interesting the behavior of the era interim because here for the southern edge era interim is quite close to the era 20 c and era 20 cm. On the other hand, for the northern edge era interim, the behavior is quite similar, but it seems that there is a bias of the respect to the era 20 c and the era 20 cm. As far the strength is concerned, we can observe that we don't have a trend, so we can say that there is a strengthening of awakening of the other circulation in the northern edge with the era 20 cm and the era 20 cm. Whereas with the era interim, we can notice that there is a remarkable trend, a remarkable polar wall shift of this circulation. For the southern edge, we can notice a trend of a polar wall shift of the other circulation with all three data sets, but it's more stronger with the era interim. This other study, so this study... So we can answer about the differences between these three data sets that you are using, because I don't know where everyone is, so how many are in this three particular agenda screen. Okay, yes, because era 20 cm is an ensemble mean, because I have used the 10 members of ensembles, so this is an ensemble mean of era 20 cm, so all ensemble. And then era 20 cm is another data set, because it is the Amip experiment, era 20 cm. And then era 20 cm is the first member of era 20 cm, because they have the same sea surface temperature. Era 20 cm is a real analysis for me, and I even decided not to go backwards in a consistent way, it only uses surface pressure data. And the model is forced by the same SSD as era 20 cm. Era 20 cm is basically a name in graph. So there is no conservation at all. So it is quite remarkable that in fact, in the ensemble mean of era 20 cm and era 20 cm, some of these interannual equations are in place, which is an indication that the SSD is actually putting us on constraint. So a lot of the units actually come of the SSD value, which is the same with this. Okay. So just once, era 20 cm is a real analysis that goes back in the past based on the surface pressure, on the surface pressure. But then after the 1980s, other data is also used on the surface pressure. So that explains why they should be so different. Okay. And then is, so, with the string function, the adres cell is something that is a zonally uniform. But in other study they consider that the adres cell is not something that is zonally uniform. So Chen and Toll divided the hemisphere in the sixth region. So we have two regions over the continent and two regions over the ocean. And they use the OLR to describe the adres circulation. In particular, they define this threshold to 150 watt per meter square. They use a different data set, as this threshold is defined as the polar wedge edge of the adres circulation in these three regions. So we have a region over Africa, another region over the American continent, and another region over America, and the other region over the three main oceans, so Atlantic, Eastern, Pacific, and the Indian Ocean. So they study this time series, and on the right we have the northern hemisphere, so for the edge in the northern hemisphere. And we can observe that in the northern edge we have a polar movement of the adres circulation in all five regions. On the other end for the southern edge, that is the left column, we don't have a significant movement of the adres circulation to work pole, apart from South America. So this is in contrast with the result that we have found before. So this suggests that there is a disagreement between different model, because they use this data set, whereas with the other data set we found different result. So using different quantity we don't have the same messages, and there is also a disagreement among the model. So to sum up the study, because I have found a lot of literature about the movement and about the widening of adres circulation. So we can sum up that there is a polarward expansion of adres circulation, but there is a disagreement among the model. And the disagreement among the model is strong if we study the strength of adres circulation, because someone say that the adres circulation is strengthening, someone say that the adres circulation is weakening. So it's not easy to understand the behavior of the adres circulation, but anyway the climate model projection suggests an expansion, so consequently a weakening of the adres circulation with the global warming. So in my study I have used the precipitation to describe the adres circulation. So we know that the adres circulation is a thermally driven circulation, because according to the insulation we have the migration of precipitation around the tropic and the equator. So this is the precipitation field obtained using average all year using era 20CM. And this is the precipitation field for a VJF. This is the precipitation field for JJR. And here is the zonally average of the precipitation. So I have decided to study the adres circulation using precipitation, because precipitation is something that you can measure. So you can see the effect of this circulation on a parameter that you can experiment, you can measure with, for example, rain gauge. So I describe the adres circulation using the zonally average mean in this way. This black line are the edge of adres circulation that are defined as the first absolute minimum, starting from the equator, are defined as the first absolute minimum of the zonally average precipitation. In this way I compare the result that I found it, because in this way I found, as I am in all year of the analysis, I compare this result with the stream function. So in this table we have the northern edge, southern edge and central edge that is the ITCZ, founded using the stream function method. So the method that I described before. Here we have the northern edge, southern edge and central edge founded using precipitation. So founded using this method. So consider the edge of adres circulation as the minimum of this precipitation distribution. So here we can, and I have done this for all three data set. And here we can notice that there is a good correlation between the edge of the adres circulation founded with the stream function and the edge of the adres circulation founded using the method of precipitation. But I noticed that this correlation is stronger in winter than in summer. And also is stronger in the boreal, so in the boreal hemisphere than in the austral hemisphere. Then I do the correlation between the stream function and the edge of adres circulation. So I correlated the strength of adres circulation and the position of the edge of this circulation. And this is the stream function computed on the northern edge and the stream function, so the Pc north is the stream function computed on the northern edge and C south is the stream function computed on the southern edge. And I can find that there is a good correlation in the northern hemisphere between the strength of the stream function and the position of the northern edge. In particular, the sign suggests that stronger the stream function is less extended the adres circulation is. So then I go further and I consider this parameter that I call total precipitation that is the amount of precipitation in this latitudinal belt between 10 south and 10 north. So this it could be related with a sort of measurement of the strength of adres circulation. In fact, I found that if we have a lot of rain in this latitudinal belt the stream function is stronger. Then in the end I do the correlation between the edge of the adres circulation found the stream function and the total precipitation. And there is a good correlation in particular an anti correlation as just the sign between how much rain in this tropical belt and the position of the northern edges. So to sum up all this correlation we can say that if we have a lot of precipitation in the tropics, I mean in the deep tropics so between 10 north and 10 south the stream function is strong and the adres cell is less extended. Or in the other way around we can say that if we have less precipitation in the tropics the stream function is weaker and the adres cell is more extended. So I consider other parameter to describe the adres circulation. I have chosen this other parameter according to the precipitation because these other parameter are related with precipitation. So the vertical velocity, the balance between the precipitation and the evaporation so is a sort of hydrological balance and the OLR. So I've done the same procedure so I've done the zonal leverage and the red one is the stream function. The green line is the precipitation minus evaporation and the edge are defined as the zero crossing latitude of this line near to the equator. So this point is considered the edge of the northern, is considered the edge of the northern edge of adres circulation and the other point this point is considered the edge of the other circulation in the southern hemisphere. Then with vertical velocity I consider the edge of adres circulation the maximum so the maximum vertical velocity. Whereas using the OLR the yellow line I adopted the same threshold of the chain at all so I consider the threshold of 250 W per meter square. I consider the edge of adres recoration when this line crosses this threshold at whirlpool. So this is the northern edge and this is the southern edge. This is for summer the same for winter. And I've done the same procedure basically so I've found the northern edge and southern edge with these three quantities and I compare what I've found with the stream function. And even in this case we can notice a good correlation in winter, so in DJF and poor correlation in JJA and we can notice a good correlation so the correlation are stronger in the northern hemisphere than in the southern hemisphere especially for the for the stream function. I have done this only using era20Cm and now I'm doing also the analysis with era20C and erainterium. But I've done it for era20C last week and I found a similar result so with era20Cm and era20Cm we have a similar correlation. Now I'm doing the correlation also with also using erainterium. So this correlation and this other correlation suggests that the adres cell is not something that is only uniform and there is a big differences in season. For this reason I've done this correlation map this is a correlation map between the vertical velocity precipitation minus evaporation and OLR. So on the right we have the correlation map between this three quantity and the stream function in the northern edge. On the right we have the correlation map between this three quantity and the stream function in the southern edge. I've done this map for the winter so for the boreal winter and for the austral winter because we know that the adres regulation is stronger during the winter season for both hemisphere. And here we can notice that we have confirmed that when the stream function is stronger the adres cell is less extended but also we can see that we have a signal that is dominated by the Pacific region. So we can say that the adres cell is mostly in the Pacific region or in the Pacific basin with a less signal in Atlantic. This is true for the boreal winter but also for the austral winter. Then in this other correlation map I've done the correlation between the position of the northern edge found using the stream function method with these three parameters. And I found the same messages so we have a strong signal in the Pacific region so we have a circulation that is dominated so is dominated by this region and I have found the same messages so that stronger the stream function is less extended the adres cell and the adres circulation are. So here is another correlation map but using the total precipitation and basically I have found the same things so that we have this strong signal in the Pacific region so we can affirm that the adres cell exists but only in the Pacific region or in the Pacific region. So to sum up this preliminary result we can affirm that according to the literature we have an expansion of the adres reculation and the rate of the expansion is about 0.35 latitude per Kelvin warming but we have noted that there is a disagreement among the model so this expansion is not something that is only uniform but there is big differences in the hemisphere and now we can say that there is a strong signal in the Pacific region so is the Pacific region that dominate the adres circulation whereas in the other region the adres circulation is very weak or sometimes also negligible but we can notice using the correlation map that there is some hot spot so where the correlation is strong for example in the Pacific but also in America and sometimes in especially as far as the southern hemisphere is concerned the tropical maritime content so we can use this hot spot of high correlation like for example maritime content in Central America to study the adres reculation behavior because in this region the signal is stronger than in the other region.