 Okay, very good morning. I hope everyone is well Tuesday 27th of August getting straight into the briefing as you can see from the side of me got the Calendar highlights for the week ahead. So we're going to discuss where some of the interest might be over the coming Trading sessions obviously a UK bank holiday yesterday. So beautiful sunshine. Hope everyone had their sun cream on Bank holiday though meaning that volumes yesterday particularly light I think the S&P traded volume was about 20% lower than normal, which is absolutely to be expected And so yesterday's session relatively Quiet as the G7 was kind of wrapping up and that really is going to dominate much of our discussion for the briefing this morning Otherwise quick look at the charts then as to how we reside at the moment It's as again fairly benign opening. I would say We have slightly lower index futures in the equity space While what has been an incredibly volatile period for US equities as we we're gonna look at Donald Trump is Don't think he himself can make his mind up at the moment about how he wants to approach Dealing with the trade talks with China But overall a fairly more conciliatory tone in the G7 did see equities just creep up a little yesterday But just giving back a touch this morning gold slightly positive, but again fairly Contained price action certainly seen overnight just a little bump as Europe's come in this morning In addition the US 10 year is up about seven ticks at the moment in the currency space dollar index Slightly softer and that is just lending its hand to some very Moderate support to your dollar and cable at the moment But again as per usual I'll let Sam take care of the the technical look at the markets I'll just wrap up some of the main headlines, which starting with the G7 You'll remember and actually one of the first charts. I want to jump to is it's actually this and this is looking at the S&P 500 and One-day percentage change and as you can see this encapsulates the the kind of year-to-date price activity of the S&P But what's really quite in stark contrast to the rest of the year is these real extremities that we've been seeing in price movement on the daily close in the S&P and of Episodes of multi percent When I say multi I mean two plus percent getting close to three percent losses on three occasions in August one percent being fairly common on the upside in recoveries, so just absolutely seesaw as markets react and try to Remain fairly agile to respond to the latest developments on the trade war situation kind of Trump Ramping it up China responding then power coming in that adverse feedback loop We kind of talked about but the problem is is that you know when Jerome Powell spoke at the end of last week It was almost and Sam making the point this morning. There's almost like Trump absolutely lost his mind For a period of a couple of hours. I mean he even spelt Powell's name wrong with the first tweet And the markets just collapsed at that point and then it was followed up with at the G7 This came out. This was really at the beginning of the G7s. This was like on Saturday They have altered the headline a little bit, but originally it was asked President Trump asked about whether he could rethink tariffs. He said sure why not? And kind of roll back everything that he was doing at the end of last week Saying that he was having the idea that he was having second thoughts However, as you can tell by the headline the White House pretty quick to come out and say well hang on that wasn't the case But such is Trump's want and need to try and Massage the the market sensitivity in the right fashion that he needs which is positive equity response You know it's been a lot lot a lot of volatility to try and pick through now a few other things that have been happening Overall the closing statements given by Macron and Trump Trump left the G7 taking a slightly more conciliatory tone has been the general takeaway on China He pointed to recent calls and a speech by China's top negotiator signs that Beijing wanted a deal And so therefore he's still of this belief that you know, there's a great deal coming however that journalist who essentially writes for Editor of the the Global Times one of the state-run Chinese publications on Twitter, and he's been very much the voice piece on that social platform for responding to Trump and They said that based on what I know Chinese and US top negotiators didn't hold a phone call in recent days The two sides have been keeping in technical contact at a technical level It doesn't have significance that Trump suggested China didn't change its position and China will not cave to US pressure So as much as Trump at the G7 said we've had really positive phone calls China have basically said no we haven't So there's been a real I feel distinct shift here Which I think ultimately might even lend its hand to continued Volatility because I really do think that China now have really Seem to have hit their stop and have had enough and they're definitely taking a different approach now And it almost feels like Trump is chasing a little bit to map to manage this and hence the reason why you're getting this flip-flopping in Communication which is highly destabilizing as far as market movement is concerned I do actually think that this is going to continue going forward This was another important tweet because Originally, this was the Washington Post one here down the bottom Trump said he regrets China trade dispute after recent escalation So this isn't referenced to Friday, but then China came back and said regret This should be seen as President Trump changed his tone after ordering US companies to leave China Regardless of his specific expression each time we're taking we're seriously making Preparations for scenario in which China US trade relations deteriorate further even much worse than now, so Again, it's almost like China's calling his bluff now, and I think Trump potentially getting a little twitchy Given the fact that China's saying quite openly and explicitly here Well, we're willing to let things get worse and the fact now that China if you remember has managed to Control this or devalue this symbolic Importance of seven with the Chinese Yuan against the US dollar I do think now that does give them some more room for maneuver given They know now that there isn't going to be this mass exodus of capital outflows out of their country Which was before a slight a slight risk So yeah, lots have been happening. I think from a trade point of view I definitely think that as I said this pattern of price Activity of large daily Intra-day swings. I think will continue for the moment and if anything, I think if Trump does start to To lose a little bit control that means he inevitably needs to start sounding more positive and if anything does that start to like Translate into more positive market movement again because it seems as though Powell Definitely is not going to be his saviour at this point. Not unless there is a dramatic Shocking markets where the Fed are forced then into action into easing further that this point fed still gonna cut 25 basis points in a couple of weeks time And still market pricing in multiple cuts thereafter But this trade narrative Certainly, I think it's gonna be still a tricky one to manage if you're trading intraday And that all I would say is that I think you've just got to be super vigilant in the intraday environment in terms of actively managing your trades Perhaps not sitting in anything for too longer a period than what is necessary so that kind of more prudent approach to the timing and duration of trades might be a Good way of going about trying to evade some of the fundamental risk to these headlines and tweets some of the other things that came out of the G7 was the French president doing his best to try and Bring forward a kind of solution in towards this conflict that's been growing in the Persian Gulf between Iran and particularly the US and so he tried to instigate talks between the two parties and Trump as much as he said that under the right conditions He would be up for having face-to-face talks with Iran Iran's Rahani has come out this morning and said that there's no talks with the US until Sanctions are lifted of which you would imagine is incredibly unlikely to happen. So that being said It was all the best will in the world from French president to try and get this over the line It doesn't look like that's going to happen anytime soon Then Boris Johnson he was obviously his first outing on the international scene if you like and Apparently handling himself relatively well in respect to definitely no blunders I think he's it's that usual Boris kind of tactic of You know, he's kind of charm offensive in just being You know fairly almost light-hearted completely charismatic in a way and that seems to have Gone down fairly well with his European partners. However, the status quo remains Johnson said he was prepared to take Brexit talks with the European Union down to the very last minute Before the October 31 exit deadline and if necessary to take a decision to leave without a deal on that day So there's nothing really that came out of concrete nature from Europe or Britain The only thing was is that, you know, no one was Offended in any way, which means that with what 63 odd days. I think it is left They're still looking to cut a deal at this point to avert the worst-case scenario. So yeah, I wouldn't say this is a direct By the pound situation, but it certainly was worst case avoided in terms of absolute loggerheads between all of the European officials and Boris which did not occur The other thing this is outside of the G7 to be aware of again reduced risk in regards to what was an episode of Kind of yield spiking in Italy as spreads Widening and the FTSE mid was under pressure on the back of potentially new snap elections Which could have led if polls are to believe to a more nationalist led potential push close to an overall majority or if not a coalition leading on the the way of The league under Matteo Salvini, but that's looking like a lesser and lesser Outcome given the fact that now the the DP party and the five-star look to be pretty close to forming a Solution ahead of what is a deadline this week where they need to put forward a new combination of political parties after the plug Was poured on the league in the five-star about two weeks ago The only thing that's causing a little bit of friction at the moment between those two parties is who's going to be the the premier Roberto Fico is being put forward Whereas the five-star leader would prefer the reappointment of Conte who's the the current person at the helm at the moment So overall risk dissipating over Italy And so you'd be looking for that to be responded to in the appropriate fashion spread tightening And if anything supporting of their local equity market and an element to help support the euro at least for the moment In that respect however for the euro. There's a lot of other stuff going on, of course Looking at the calendar for the week ahead Few things to be aware of and I'll just I'll just touch upon the highlights really as we get to Thursday we get the second reading of US GDP obviously going to be interesting and to see the scope and size if any potential revision to the advanced reading and Then on Friday you get the flash eurozone CPI reading Of course always an important measure just given how generally lackluster inflationary conditions have been in the likes of eurozone Japan and so on that has led to this more dovish sounding central banks that we've had on an on a global level and then going into the weekend You get Chinese manufacturing non manufacturing PMI, which is going to be important to follow of course as to continue to see the severity of the The significance of the trade deterioration that we've had with the US and its impact on the underlying Chinese economy So that's pretty much the general gist of it I'd say actually despite all of these scheduled calendar events of which you can access on my Twitter account that Sam will issue it within the weekly statue report later this morning But I'd say the main thing you want to be looking at there's going to be the pivotal kind of driver of sentiment for this week remains the trade war Ongoing between the US and China and at the moment It's hard to call about where that is heading the only thing I think that is quite clear It's for me China now have really changed tact and focus and they've really almost Managed to leverage the negotiation power out of Trump's hands and with Powell not being as Rightly he should be not playing ball with Trump's requests and Trump seemingly getting more increasingly Frustrated which is leading to much more miss communication i.e. changing his view and stance I think we could potentially be in for more volatility this week and that then creating You know just something to be aware of for your your intraday strategy is going forward. All right That's it from my part. Let me get Sam on You can look at the charts in more detail about what he thinks of the week ahead, but I wish you a good one And I'll see you in the chat room Throughout the week. Thanks very much Our guys. Good morning. Hope you all had a great Bank holiday weekend something a quick look over the the pound this morning and well the dollar in general Just just weakening a touch and following Friday's push to the upside Thursday Friday push to the upside you can see that the pound hits come up to 122 50 now A fair whack away from that that low that we had back on the 12th of the month So the pounders testing up a quite a key level from the trade that we had Yesterday just above the here about 10 ticks or so quite a key level for certainly intraday And then even then above that you got some nice resistance at 122 71 Which I would keep an eye on and especially when you know recently It's been to the downside but here to the upside now the pan has recovered a bit You've got a couple of highs that just get in lower. So worth having that that trend on there You can see you've really got the the free tests on the on the half hour and we're just you know Not too far away from testing all these points of resistance If that was all to go well, you've got to imagine the pound certainly for going into the Early part mid part of the week has got maybe a bit more to go and just bring in on here The the weekly Chart of the pound and you can see we'll see how we've got this marked up And I mean I really like the look of a short should we get to coming in around still 124 I think you know technically having broken that trend line a weekly trend line going back to 2017 This that whole area looks pretty good Along with 124 81 as a maybe more medium-term trade But decent enough bounce. I mean you could you could argue we've had a test of that 120 Just, you know, I think at one point we were about 30 ticks away Yeah, you can see that 30 ticks away from that multi decade load that we got into person 17 So decent push and I do like the look of a retest of this whole area as a place to Get short for now It's keeping an eye on the 10 ticks or so above bit of a range to the downside obviously for many of these Dollar pairs you're gonna have where we pushed higher Or in this case on the on the 27th from the McCron Merkel room as I should say But also on Friday for say the euro dollar that previous maybe range that we had In the case of the pound this coming in on the 122 handle before that obviously the lows of the day loads of yesterday But also worth having on same sort of thing as the top just that trend That seems to be containing price for now the euro Having a brief push and again with the pound it's you can just coming up to test some key resistance Not to say that this is where we completely break through now as you do have a fair bit just above the pivot at 111 40 As well and see you could argue here This is worth having on this trend line that's cut through yesterday morning to the afternoon and to now as well We had to see that that big push on Friday And I just like we and was saying we have to be able to say in this morning How he just seemed like he completely lost his head completely lost his head on Friday and whether he bought Jerome Powell was gonna come out and and lower interest rates or not Not too sure wouldn't put it past him if he did think that but the euro Strengthened against the dollar obviously that dollar weakness coming from his attack on the Fed Kid a pretty key level that high that we had back on the 15th That late last night. We have drifted down since I think really to the believe We're gonna have another test of that this trend and that pivot and the high rule gonna have to go this week As actually as we were trading near the low of the morning Well, we weren't too far again away from you know getting down to those lows of the year Which yes do seem a further away now But with Trump's easing off the the pressure it might be a favor to look again for this market to drift lower As well, where could that come from? I think to agree with that view rather than say going short higher up You know a break of these lows and the trend that's starting to form from yesterday to this morning Could be the opportunity to get short there or you know the case it goes higher The market tell you that is going to go higher as well quick look over at US stocks And it's quite interesting just having a look at this market on The daily chart and that we've been mentioned this before but every day and week that goes by this looks more and more Like exactly what we had in October November by just bring that into picture here. You can see just get in That in the rectangle there the price action is pretty much identical Just squeeze down into less days this time and you can see That that trend line going back to October November December last year. We just couldn't break above you could argue that is The highest that we've got now the original low is then Lower than the second one and now we got that third one as well So yeah, I think from a you know that opportunity to to see a big move To the downside it's still definitely on just the way price action is is repeating itself here We get on the Moving averages you can see the 200 days is very much still a level support and the the 50 a level of resistance as well You can see that that red being the the 50 in the green here the 200 a break of the 200 shot We can get a big breakthrough and Bigger level as any is that 27 37 to really down to 24 this whole zone here As well, but price action looking very very similar. I wouldn't really be looking to get long Obviously fundamentals can change that but unless we was a break above this trend at the top And that coming in around sort of 40s 29 40 unless it gets above there. I'm not interested Whereas for now It does seem that we're we're just repeating ourselves if we do take it a bit more intraday and start to put on the Pivots as well and just have a look at this close so you can see to the upside as well, you know, you've got this key 2890 level which has had good resistant a good price action before so I'll be keeping a Close eye on that but for me unless we were to get above literally today's are to enclose there I'm not too interested to the downside we can see we're just Well, we failed to break yesterday's high just below the pivot looks like quite an important point 2855 and below there 42 as well European stocks if we just have a quick look just testing their pivots if they were to go you've got some nice support Just below there as well similar to what we just looked at in the S&P if that was to to break down Then this one come a bit quicker You'd expect to the upside for that's the morning low before the breakdown at 8 About 26 minutes ago. We're keeping an eye on here So marking that with an X and also you can see we're just getting squeezed from the upside so a couple of Lines in the sand to be aware of most notably these areas to circle if they were to hold Or not quick look at golden oil to wrap it. You can see the pivot today Looks pretty important with yesterday's afternoon and mornings key levels just above their 15 47 point 3 But also to the downside what a level support this has been over the last 24 hours or so 1535 the good at levels good line in the sands as you would like for the week ahead if we were to break to the downside and If we were to see further easing off of those Donald Trump tweets and just be aware of any of these previous highs as gold just had such Fantastic Friday before gapping to what's that 1564 on Sunday evening as well I would only get excited to the upside if 1547 point 3 was to break and then you are looking at those highs from yesterday in the Asian session As well oil you can see here Just well keep knocking on that 54 door above the pivot But also you've got quite a key level 54 10 from price action wise yesterday That's something I would have marked up and certainly to the downside here and we talked about in the briefing I think on Friday it was just how we probably prefer Technically anyway all to look like it's going to break through as those trend lines from last week held and we are now Below them we are just seeing a bit of a trend line break at the moment So as long as we stay below that pivot I think this market could drift lower and then you are looking down at yesterday yesterday sort of lower levels of support 53 59 from late last night and also be the load of that week We'll go into a bit more detail longer term for sure Ahead of the midday when we release that strategy But a couple of interesting points certainly to be aware of just one market to finish on here is It's just caught my eyes the euro pound certainly You get where you had that retest I guess yesterday Remember that head and shoulders we were talking about break through retest and obviously it's attracted some interest to have got short there To the downside you'd be more comfortable holding this position if that level s1 Yesterday's low was all to break as well. You can see that trend line Just looking like it's going to appear around there as well. Any questions as usual, please Do do let us know. I hope you've all recovered from the amazing Bank holiday and England cricketers Heroics So if you are Australian, I'm sorry. There's still two tests left for you to get something out of it I hope you'll have a great day and a great week