 Hello and welcome to the Monday market update with me David Madden today's day It is Monday the 14th of January 2019 and the time has just gone 1101 GMT It's been a fairly negative start for the markets here in Europe Essentially, we are disappointing trade figures out of China overnight and I said disappointing the two individual components We're disappointing exports and imports and there's continued concerns about this slowing Chinese economy And it's also an argument to be made that the the trade war between the US and China is actually hurting the Chinese economy So the two components of the trade are imports and exports looking at the import side of things which Reflects domestic demand in China imports fell by 7.6 percent China is a major importer of natural resources Metals and oil as we're seeing pressure being applied to mining companies and also energy companies This this morning in London also This tie is in which is wider Weakness in Chinese sales last week. We saw that Car sales in China declined on an annual basis for the first time in 20 years This really shows that the Chinese economy has been slowing down and we're seeing further evidence of that now China's economy has been cooling for some time This all can't be blamed just on the trade standoff with the US But speaking of that exports from China actually declined by 4.4 percent So once again, it's an indication That the standoff between Washington DC and Beijing in relation to trade is adding to the pressure on the Chinese economy And if you have a scenario whereby China has been already been cooling for a number of years, which it has been now The trade standoff is likely to make things worse So traders are a bit are a bit as negative sentiment in relation to that Keep mine last week We did hear that the US and Chinese delegates ended the trade talks in a positive note Only some details were announced. We haven't really heard any more additional information in relation to that But as I said, we've now seen evidence that domestic demand in China is cooling and also that the ex-Chinese exports are falling Because of the tariff situation. What else is going on in Europe this morning? We have some disappointing eurozone Industrial production figures on an annual basis that declined by 3.3 percent Last week we saw disappointing industrial production figures from the big three each Germany France and Italy and if the major economies in the eurozone are all Producing a poor economic indicators. It really doesn't bode well for the region as a whole and also for the currency There's been kind of increased talk that the eurozone has gone through an economic malaise We're now in 2019. So that means the European Central Bank's QE program has come to an end because it wound up last year and it really just doesn't look good whereby When the stimulus package was in place eurozone was doing reasonably well and we saw encouraging economic indicators and now we're in a period whereby the stabilizers have been taken off and we're seeing a decline in the certain certain economic reports out of the region Taking a look at some of the major markets now. I'll start off with the FTSE 100 So the FTSE 100 is still well up on the year 2019 We're well off the lows of late December But as you can see here, excuse me as you can see here the market at a fairly decent bounce back It's like a bounce back from late December up until up until the last week Where the market couldn't get beyond the 7,000 markets a big psychological number and if this Trend does continue. We could see the market turn over on itself You could see heading back down towards the 6,750 a region and if you go below that we could be like heading down towards the December low of 6,536 Notice how since August the market's been in a classic example of a downward trend by series of lower lows and lower highs and We'll see how things happen. We'll see how things play out But this 7,000 mark here could be the next lower high before we potentially look to move lower again Taking a look at the MACD histogram MACD indicator We can see that as the markets been edging lower positive momentum is falling. So The the the upward momentum is cooling and that confirms the downward move we're seeing in the actual market itself. So While we remain below 7,000 on the FTSE 100 It's likely we could see further losses if you do manage to take out 7,000 on the FTSE keep an eye out for this region here 7,200 and 20 it didn't act that region did act did manage to act as both support and our resistance Yeah, in the back in the back end of 2018 and if it was a metric was important in the past it makes it more likely they'll be important in the future I'll take a look now at the germarket the decks It's a fairly similar situation there whereby we're well off the low to December, but the market did manage to run our esteem as we can see here late December onwards the market had a bounce back But then again we have at the market did lose a considerable a considerable amount of ground for the back for the back half of 2018 We can see here the market headed towards the 11,000 mark once again a big Psychological number and we can see here in both October and also November just north of 11,000 did manage to act as support So this region now may be acting as resistance to kind of 11,000 mark there They're about the market didn't quite get there has been turning over on itself We can see a tapering off in positive momentum So we could see further we could see the market turn all about itself yet again And if you do look to press on lower from here We could be looking any back down towards the 10,400 region or perhaps down as low as a December low of 10,277 If you do manage to have a break above 11,000 keep an eye for this blue line here The fifth the moving average which comes into play at 11,080. We can see that the market Just was when it rallied in early December. It was just shy of it It did manage to act as resistance on a number of occasions in in September So that metric has seen as that acted as resistance in the past it may do so again in the future If you do look to press beyond that we really would need to be taking out this region here in around the 11,690 area before we could become more confident That the tax is kind of shaking off the negative trend is spinning for some time I'll take a look now. What's going on on the S&P 500? So the S&P 500 has had a fairly decent Bounce back since late December. This is the move here. We've seen since late December But similar to its European counterparts Recent sessions that the market has been running on a steam. It couldn't break beyond the 2600 mark once again a big psychological number and an area which did manage to act as support in October and Also in December, so adding more weight to the argument that the 10,000 sorry 2600 mark is an important level for the S&P 500 if you do manage to drift lower up again We could see support coming to play at 2,532 or perhaps at 2,500 itself and if you go south of that, we could be looking heading down towards 2,438 this region here, and if you go below that that would be Likely indicated that we could be heading back down towards the December low of 2,319 on the flip side if you do manage to break north of 2,600 keep running up for this trend line here This is acted as support on number of occasions on the back end of last year. It may act at resistance Should we break north of 2,600 and this line here we're coming to play in around potentially coming to play in around the 2,670 region And if you go beyond that keep on out for the two or two moving average this red line here Which comes into play at 2,743 I take a look now at the gold market So it goes broadly been moving higher since mid-August But it's really been since mid-November has the kind of more aggressive move to the upside bit of play We can see here that the metal ran out of steam On a few occasions as it approached the 1,300 mark so obviously it's big psychological number if we can manage to break north of 1,300 the next year to keep an eye for will be 1,326 this area here But if the market does manage to get a turn over on itself and it's a bit lower We could see support coming to play in around the 1,275 area or perhaps in at the 1,265 region and if you go below that we could be look at heading back down towards 1,250 It acts as both support and resistance recently and also coincides with the fifth of a moving average I take a look at what's going on in the oil market now take a look at Brent crude as I said there was concerns over the the Imports component of the of the China trade figure so the concerns over How much oil will China want in there going forward so we have seen a bit of a pullback in the price of all But all is still well up on 2019 so We can see a recent session the oil has struggled to get beyond this blue line here the fifth of the moving average at $60 and like and 96 cents If you do manage to kind of break beyond that we could be looking at targeting the late November high of 63 start 35 and if you go beyond that you could be looking at heading up towards 68 spot 36 this region here But we can't really ignore the wider downward trend that oil has been in since early October And if you do manage to kind of push on lower from here We could be looking at it back down towards 57 point 50 and a break below that we could be looking heading back down towards $52 and if you go below 52 we could be looking at retesting a 50 bucks level back down here It's a similar situation for WTI Or by it's had a good bounce since December But it has managed to give back some of its gains in recent sessions So as you can see here a very similar situation here once again This blue line here 50 moving average which comes into play at 52 spot Oh one is acting resistance for the time being if the market can manage to get above that we could be looking at her taking out The mid to mid to late November highs of 54 spot 14 And if you go beyond that we could be looking at targeting 58 spot 10 And if you go beyond that we could be looking at any backup towards $60 per barrel But as I said, it's been a classic example of a downward trend since early October and if the wider trend continues We could be looking at heading back down towards $47 And below $47 we could be looking heading to 44 spot 20 And below that you could be looking at heading back down towards the 42 region or the 41 spot 74 area Take a look now at the euro versus the US dollar so Since mid-November we've Broadly seen the euro dollar push higher hasn't really managed to make a whole lot of ground to the upside But we're well off lows of mid mid-November and we have seen a my series of lower high Sorry apologies higher lows rather apologies higher lows as the market is creeping higher We did manage to break above the 115 115 10 area Last week, but we are back below it again that area did was was of a fairly significant importance From say to May to true October and also to May through October So that area is important to want to keep an eye out for if you stay south of the 115 10 region we could we could see they we could see pressure remain on the single currency But keep mind we have seen higher highs and higher lows In recent weeks on the euro dollar So the trend may be slowly beginning to change and if you can take out 115 115 10 again, we could be looking at targeting the 116 area up to the 200 moving average this red line here, which comes to play in at one spot 16 30 but like I was saying if the market Remains back below continues to remain below 115 115 10 we could be looking at heading down towards 114 or perhaps even down to 113 Take a look at the pound versus the US dollar If you take a look at if you ignore the The this this particular candle here We're starting sold off heavily that was tonight. We saw a major move in the Japanese yen coinciding with an apple warned on first quarter sales in relation to slowing sales in China We can see that the pound has to make a decent ground against the US dollar in recent weeks It's been slowly pushing higher we can see a steady increase in positive momentum So the increase in momentum confirms the upward move that we're seeing in the underlying currency itself If you look to press on higher from here, we could be looking at heading up back up towards the 130 region But keep mind if you look at the way bigger picture since April Or even since September pound dollar has been in a fairly Clear downward trend and if you do love to press on lower from here We could be looking any back down towards the one 20s one spot 2710 region or perhaps down towards the The one spot 27 region itself and a move below that with what might bring us back down towards the late November low This region here 125 124 76 this area here If you do look to continue beyond 130 we could be looking at targeting the late November high of one spot 31 74 I Take a quick look now at the week ahead and the week ahead article can be found on our website at CMCmarkets.com under news and analysis you can see it here Looking covering the corporate and economic highlights of the week So between today Monday and Wednesday, we have a number of US banks reporting their quarterly their fourth quarter figures City group Wells Fargo JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs We've already had the Chinese trade figures out. So on Wednesday We're gonna Chinese retail sales figures coming out keep mind this big abrameter of what demand true demand Actually in China is like tomorrow and Tuesday British politicians vote on Theresa May's deal. It's widely expected to get voted down So we could see some uncertainty and some volatility in the pound on the back of that On Wednesday, we have UK inflation on on apologies also Wednesday. We have US retail sales Thursday, you Eurozone inflation Friday, we have both UK retail sales and also Canadian inflation If you've any comps make on this video or any of the videos we've made here at CMC markets Please feel free to leave her a view on Google a piece. Thank you very much