 When we first discussed this week eight NFL DFS main slate, I was a bit wary because it seemed as though it would be tough to find value wide receiver and that might make things difficult when we had, you know, not a ton of value running back either and some tough quarterback play. Now, as we get to Thursday, though, there is some value running back pretty possibly at running back and some pretty good potential value there and I'm starting to feel pretty good about this slate, which might be a bad thing, but I don't know. I'm going to break it down. I'll break down what that value is, how good we feel about it and get you set for week eight over on FanDuel.com. This is the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire. That's right here on the FanDuel podcast network and NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Saunders. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com joined here as always by Brandon Gedula. He is the senior managing editor of NumberFire.com. Brandon, I am warming this week eight main slate, but I feel like I should ask you how you doing today on this beautiful, lovely Thursday. I'm good. I hope that the planes overhead weren't picked up on the on the mic here, but I can only think that they're flying over to celebrate another edition of the heat check and to kick off Tony Pollard week potential. Can we get a flyover? Can we like arrange that? How much does it cost? I was trying to book a flight to Denver or to and from Denver for a wedding and it was in Pueblo, sorry, not Denver, Pueblo. And one of the kayak suggestions was to take a private jet and it was like $11,000 for a ticket. So like, if I can get a private jet ticket for $11,000, I feel like we could probably, you know, we expense that like expense a flyover for the heat check? Maybe for like the Thanksgiving slate. I could see maybe getting that written off maybe maybe for the opening of next year. I don't know about week eight, but again, I am wearing my 2022 football sweatshirt. So, you know, it's a to commemorate kickoff. Got it in week eight. Good to go. And there are going to be some kickoffs this week. There will be several hopefully more than usual because scoring has been pretty rough. We're going to break down our view of this week eight main slate and break down Tony Pollard, some potential other value as well and where we're seeing the best plays on FanDuel 4 this week. But first, a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts. We, of course, are on Apple podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Amazon, I think Google, you know, you name it, you can find us there. And while you're there, if you like what you hear, leave us a rating and review, not just NFL twice weekly, but also Tom Beckio with the Daily ISO every weekday breaking down NBA DFS. We got NASCAR up for Martinsville. Got some USC for the big events, PGA as well, all right here in the same feed. So go subscribe to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. And of course, the NFL podcast also streamed live on the FanDuel YouTube page at 10 a.m. Eastern. Hello to you YouTube for today. The week eight NFL Sunday Million is officially live on FanDuel Showcase, your NFL knowledge and construct your best nine player roster while staying under the salary cap. Then follow along using FanDuel's live scoring feature to compete for your share of $1.4 million in cash prize, including a cool 250k to first place all for just a $5 entry with superstars like Jalen Hurts and Saquon Berkeley all scheduled to take the field on October 30th. There is no shortage of big names to help you build your lot of surround NFL season approach quickly. So go to FanDuel.com and submit your lives today. Eligibility restrictions apply. Go to FanDuel.com or download the FanDuel app for more details. I know. I know. Do you want me to say who you skipped over? Go ahead. Go ahead. Jim skipped over Cooper Cup. I can't get there this week because I don't want to say his name. I know he's in the read. We're giving a script and I followed the script word for word. I did skip Cooper Cup because I felt like I didn't want to say his name. So sue me. Sue me FanDuel. I sit here in my FanDuel hat with my FanDuel. They're on way. FanDuel sweater. FanDuel background. I'm not talking Cooper Cup. You can't pay me. So. I mean, with all these value running backs, potentially. No. I don't want to use any RAM ever. I will ask you about a RAM later, but it's out of obligation. I don't want to. I know it's not Daryl Henderson. Yeah. You're right. I also think he missed practice, right? He did. He's ill. But the whole, the whole back feels ill. It's just. His fan back. Oh yeah. That's what I'm asking you about later on. I have a brand that I must uphold that brand is anti Cooper Cup and pro Van Jefferson. It's been a great last year and a half for me. Slate overview here for week number eight, Brandon. I think that the key for me has been the emergence of value running backs, specifically Tony Pollard. If Ezekiel doesn't play, but also Deontay Foreman's in play where he most reads in play. And. I think as a result of that. Like we've, I was worried on Monday about the value receivers because there aren't any. But I feel like I can potentially just avoid it this week and not worry about it. Maybe like one per lineup and like have none. And a lot. So my overall vibe on this slate is if I don't like the value receivers, just don't use them, use the value running backs instead. What's the slate overview for you? Yeah. I mean, I don't want to just copy that. I think I could add to it where like, we can look at the value running backs. And compare them to the stud running backs. Cause we have a lot of big names on this slate. And once again, it's like, are we just going to write those guys up? I don't know. I think that whenever we do get value at running back, the justification for, for spending down generally makes sense. So long as we're. Not. Not locking in guys with very questionable roles. If the, if the role is clear. So part of what I wanted to say was like, we got stud running backs that we should at least take a long look at, even if we are interested in the value. But I think that's, I don't know, just take a long look at even if we are interested in the value. But I think for me, the bigger thing is starting to be quarterback. Yeah. You know, we have Jalen Hertz at 9,200 in a game where they might not have to throw very much. We have Kyler Murray once again at 8,200. Can we go back to Kyler? And from there, like it's generally pocket passers. And we don't typically roster pocket passers. But we also have a minimum salary for a quarterback and who, who might run a little bit and Sam Ellinger. I think that that's at least appealing. It would be more appealing if we didn't have the value of running back. But honestly quarterback almost every single week so far this year has been, we know the three or four guys we want. Yeah. This week I have one love written down and I'm going to wait and see where things go from there and see what opens up. But I think quarterback is really hard for me this week. I think quarterback and tight end are pretty tough. I think that like the depth of tight end is a bigger issue. Like I like Dallas Goddard a lot and I can feel good about that. But like beyond him, it's not voluminous. So. Yeah. You can be wrong at tight end. Correct. Destroy you if you're wrong at quarterback. It's there's really no coming back from that. Yeah. So you mentioned you have one love at quarterback. I have two right now, but one of them might not have his like specimen wide receiver and mighty playing in rain and wind. Yeah. We'll figure it out. Luckily only three outdoor games this week. So that's a problem is one of them is impacting our Gina Smith revenge. Let's dive into injuries here for week number eight. Of course the headliner is Zeke Elliott sitting out practice Wednesday with a knee and thigh injury. They have a buy coming up in week nine. So it seems like Zeke's probably going to sit if he is out. How much Tony Pollard is too much Tony Pollard? Well, to quote cinema classic, the limit does not exist. Yeah, buddy. If it's always in my brass thing about the gift last night because of this exact situation. So yes. Lindsay Lohan providing content for generations. But yeah, we'd be getting Pollard potentially just. I mean, assuming nosy untethered and if we get even if even as he plays, I think Pollard's implied because if it's this questionable, there's really not a situation where I think Pollard is sticking to his usual like 40% snap rate. It did go up last week, but that's because he could miss some time. But, you know, we're itching for some value. Pollard is very capable. He's at 1.91 rushing yards over expectation per carry. That ranks him fifth best among running backs with 50 plus carries. In Zeke's defense, they have about the same success rate, but Pollard's much more explosive and can do more with the carries that he's given. So I'm actually going to I'm going to pull a fast one on you a little bit. We always play this game on Monday, so people don't listen to the Monday show, but we play name that salary and try to predict what salary we would we would pay to roster a player. What salary do you think is appropriate for Pollard's without Zeke for week eight? So even with Zeke playing every game this year, Pollard has 86 plus yards and scrimmage through four separate games, four out of seven. He's had 98 plus three times and 100 plus twice. That's a Zeke playing and now you're putting him into more of a full role. Last time you played without Zeke, I think he had 12 carries and nine targets back in 2020. A couple touchdowns there. They're playing at home against the Bears, 87. I'd probably say like 84, 85. Put him in like that Christian McCaffrey range, which is kind of weird, but like like Tony Pollard or Josh Jacobs straight up this week. Pollard. I think so by a bit and that's not like I love and this is all assuming Zeke's completely out. Yeah, and I love Jacobs, but I think that Pollard would be above him. I would go Saquon over Pollard and I would go Derek Henry over Pollard and then McCaffrey probably, but I think it's only those three guys over Pollard. I know it's sort of, it feels irrelevant, but it's like how high is too much, or how much is too much Pollard? What would you roster him at? Like if it's that big of a discrepancy, plus then it brings like Derek Henry in play because you could effectively play both of them at like 80, 81, 82. And I would take that for sure. It makes Derek Henry easier to get to. I can get to Alvin Camero without like having scrubs at receiver. I think that's intriguing as well. So I think he opens up way too much. You talk about having like a lock button situation where these 100%, I would give it strong consideration this week with Tony Pollard. I might not get to 100, but I'll be very, very close, very close. Very close. Yeah, I think that's totally fair. Also on the Cowboys, Noah Brown missed practice Wednesday with a foot injury. Typically a Wednesday miss is not a big thing, but Brown led the team in targets in Dak Prescott's return. Would Brown sitting alter your view of any of the Cowboys past catchers? Because Michael Gallup, I think, Alvin's disappointment might actually be okay at 58 if there were no Noah Brown. Yeah, I would bump up Gallup a good bit. He burned a lot of people last week. He got, yeah. He was basically a lock button for me last week, but I don't typically do that for a receiver. It's much easier to justify that at running back. Both of his targets were deep. His ADOT was over, it was 22.7 yards downfield. I will school Gallup, and not in a complimentary way. Yeah, I will say his second target on a post Dak threw behind him, and I think if he caught it in stride, he might have a house like an 80 yard touchdown. Again, that's even that's not enough to be like, okay, he totally blew up on one catch, but I think that there are the building blocks, as you like to say, for Gallup, still to get downfield work and then maybe some extra bunny targets without Brown. So I think this would impact things, especially whenever the passing volume might be a little bit muted again this week for this team. Yeah, I'm not sure if I would get to Gallup if Brown does play, but like if he's out, I think I just use Gallup and power in the same line, I feel pretty okay about that. Personally, I would not object to that anyway. Other potential value back could be Deontay Foreman, Chuba Hubbard mispractice Wednesday with an ankle injury. Foreman played well while splitting the backfield with Chuba Hubbard, Shubbard last week, something like that way. How would you view Foreman if he were the lone ranger here with no Shubbard? No, Hubbard. Shubbard, I'm just going to call him Shubbard from now on, it's fine. Yeah, I think it'd be appealing. It's a bit less appealing with the assumption that we'll get, let's even say like 75% Pollard. I'm kind of put it in the more likely than not that we'll get Pollard. But what I do think is interesting is potentially pairing Pollard with another value back that we get, that's going to change everything from where we were on Monday. I know we're talking about getting back up to Henry or Saquon or CMC, but I might then just feel better just playing Jalen Hurts and not questioning the quarterback situation so much. Foreman basically had a split last week in the backfield, but we've seen him have good short yardage, at least in my recollection good short yardage work and efficiency on that stuff. Super efficient last week 118 yards with an expectation of like 53 yards, so he really had some damage there. Not a great success rate, so it could be a little bit nerve-wracking, but he's in the consideration set and I know we're I'm going to ask you what you think about him, but what are your thoughts on Foreman versus like a Tyler Algeer at 61? Because Algeer's been getting like 60% of the snaps it's a he doesn't he has no path to any targets and Foreman had two last week with covered I'm just going to lean into it setting you up a little bit for like what's the difference here? I think the better question for me is Foreman versus Moster. Moster at $6,800 we talked about him Monday I liked him a lot. I think that he would be in line with Moster at minimum and part of that is because so like Detroit's defense is outlier so bad looking at my defensive power rankings they're dead last second last in a tier with Detroit near no one else is Atlanta so Foreman's in a very good matchup the spread has been tightening I don't know if I agree with that I haven't checked I guess what my numbers say about that one but like I think they'll actually be okay so I think that he's more in the Moster tier than he is in the Algeer range Yeah I'm saying he's like in between in between those two in terms of salary what puts him more toward Moster than like down toward Algeer and again I wasn't like it wasn't like a gotcha question it was like I think people might because look I might need to play Tyler Algeer in season long I think I think that sometimes can bleed over into DFS is like hey this dude's been getting consistent carries it's a run heavy offense the difference is you know I think that Foreman would be really fun and I think he'd be similar to Moster looking at my numbers I have Atlanta favored by 5.4 and then 5.3 depending on my model so the spread is I think a little bit light should be a bit more in favor of Atlanta but despite that I still think that Foreman would be very implied not on the Pollard tier but he's in the Moster tier for me if we get in without Chubbard in week number 8 and we'll start Andy Dalton against the Raiders this week by Michael Thomas Jarvis Landry and Adam Troutman almost practice on Wednesday Marshawn Lattimore sat out too we'll talk about them in the bookmaker section Darren Waller returned to learn to practice on Wednesday he sat out week 7 but appears Poist return this week again we'll talk about them later on the Colts will start Sam Ellinger over Matt Ryan against the commanders Ellinger played well in the pre season he can run a bit but he's also a 6th round pick how does it shift to Ellinger alter your view of this offense I gotta throw this one right back to you because you do a ton of quarterback prospect work what should we be thinking about Sam Ellinger at 6000 he's very similar to and this is gonna sound like weird but he's similar to Billy Zappi in my stuff because both guys were regarded well by my model because it highly regards guys who are young and very experienced in both those Zappi wasn't as young but like both guys had a ton of experience coming out Ellinger started at like a big program that's significant he had decent efficiency stats didn't like light the world on fire but I think the interesting thing is like his mobility which is something that they pretty desperately need so I can't view as you as an upgrade because as much as we made fun or I may find Matt Fryan he's still like you know he the mental aspect of the game matters a lot but I don't know if it's necessarily a huge downgrade either and it may open up more lanes for Jonathan Taylor given that Ellinger can't scoot a bit so I would say is that rushing ability enough to consider especially honestly where quarterback is very uncertain can we play Ellinger at 6000 lead no but I'm not going to say hard no what's your read on it I think it's appealing again we don't typically jump at like minimum salary or low salary quarterbacks because they typically don't have a path to upside but if he can run the ball a bit I can't imagine it's much worse than a lot of other quarterbacks that we have on the slate again it's a bet against Jalen Hurts and Kyle and Murray putting up like 35 or 40 I don't think Kyle can do 35 I don't know if he can either I don't know if Jalen Hurts needs to this week and so look if we had like Josh Allen and Mahomes and Lamar like in good games I wouldn't consider it but it's something how likely are you to use Ellinger I want to get a gauge on your read on it so if I build give me 20 if you do 20 if I do 20 I think I'd probably have roughly 3 to 5 shares of Ellinger and I would not stack him with anyone I would not be shocked if I wound up 3 to 5 I could say that so about what's that like 15 15 to 20% ish I wouldn't be surprised if I got there like right now I would like not to but I might be forced to just based on the quarterback landscape for this week I agree with you though we're like I can't upgrade the past catchers here I've made jokes about Michael Pittman Nick Michael Pittman he's his longest target this year is 17 yards downfield like I've made jokes about that but I can't get to him I think Alec Pierce is like interesting but not from a DFS perspective yet at $5800 so I think for me it would be a stay away here and like Jonathan Taylor at $8300 that's a really good salary the question is do I use him over Alvin Camara at $78 I can't use him I love Camara I adore Camara Camara might be my favorite play that's not a Pollard on this slate it's tough to view him relative to McCaffrey at $85 and Dalvin at $82 I'm having a really hard time getting rid of him specifically here Jonathan Taylor yeah yeah I don't think I'll get there I don't think I need to and if I'm going to allocate more salary to a running back at this point with with value it's going to be on McCaffrey in that range Dalvin Cook is in a game that's very fun mm-hmm Andy in Washington it's not fun for it's not registering on the fun radar for me and frankly like if I'm just going to bank on value and make consider Ellinger or another sort of lower salary quarterback I'm probably trying to use it to get up to Henry who might have $35 carries and yeah we'll talk about that in the trans section too I got a good question from Mr. Monty over on YouTube asking Davis Mills or Ellinger because Mills is $65 I think the key difference is Mills I don't know if he cannot run but he does not run and like that's kind of the key pitch with Ellinger it's not the salary it's a salary combined with the rushing output potential for rushing output I should say if he didn't run I wouldn't give him any thought and I think he'll run he might have to behind a not great offensive line against team that can get a pass rush so it's not about the salary it's more so about the fact that he might run a bit I think is the key thing for me yeah yeah and back in week five I did a trend on the predictability of you know rushing and how it impacts upside and just predictability if you have a pocket passer who doesn't run and is not in any lead matchup even at a low salary those guys generally aren't worth it so again you can go back and cherry pick like oh this one quarterback put up 400 yards and two touchdowns but it's predictable but it's not that easy to predict so I think that I'm out also while I'm in the YouTube comments I mentioned that you have a good hat so congrats you won Pete over with your Dolphins hat this is why you watch on the YouTube feed do you see Brandon's hats and nothing else Jihad Dotson missed another practice on Wednesday due to his hamstring injury in their first game with Taylor Heinecke both Curtis Daniel and Terry McClaren had eight targets any interest in either of those guys if Dotson were to sit again so I was yeah I was looking into some stuff and then I looked a little bit more and I saw last week Curtis named a 5-yard 8-ought which I don't love for a receiver Terry McClaren 13 and a half and five of the eight targets for Terry McClaren were at least 10 yards downfield which I love and I was like yeah okay cool I'll play Terry at like 62 he's 68 and like that's that's too high that's too high for Terry it's I want to like him I have historically like Terry McClaren but again I also did a trend I think week three maybe about like guys who score their salary goes up they underperform next week almost exclusively or like a much much higher rate I would much rather play Curtis Samuel at what's he 56 he's in play I think Terry's out though Samuel's in play but not a prime target is what I would say there also this dongle has more arm strength than Taylor Heinecke so this is also why you watch YouTube see my dongle that I play with because I need something to do with my hands. We're like a prop show now like not talking people listening to the audio version are probably questioning why Jim has a dongle in his hand and they're like do I actually want to watch YouTube are we gonna get taken down for like some sort of like I don't know some sort of like well anyway Ron Tannehill mispractice Wednesday due to the ankle injury he suffered in week seven it seems like he's still on track to play but what do you do if Malik Willis were to start instead and how would that alter your view of Derek Henry if we get no Tannehill yes I looked at Willis he's 67 which is makes it tougher to justify I think if he were 6000 I'd say you know I'll take a deeper look but what were your thoughts on Willis he ran a con in the preseason and he was very effective doing so so I think I'd have more interested there than with Ellinger but part of it would depend on like Geno Smith if DK doesn't play and there's rain and wind in that game then I might need to get to a you know another guy and I probably would consider them at that point and Willis would at the edge for me so I think I'm more into him than I am to Ellinger apart because the matchup is so disgustingly beautiful against Houston I would also say that if Willis plays typically I'll downgrade a running back when he has a back of quarterback because decreased efficiency leads to fewer touchdown chances but you mentioned or I think JJ Zachary did a study on like rushing quarterbacks or impact on running backs it's a very good thing for them so I would still use Henry even if Willis were to start yeah the only thing I'll flag with Henry is he's like under expectation with his rushing output he's doing a lot of it on volume the volume seems pretty guaranteed so I'm not going to knock it but I feel a little bit like if we had Henry last year when he was like going off to start the season I would be like I gotta find ways to get Derek Henry it feels really different or is it just me that it feels different? I think it's I think if you overrate the first two weeks it could feel different but the past three weeks different varieties have been 32, 32, 32, 36 his yards and scrimmages are 143, 147, 132, 138 so I think we're back but what I'm saying is yeah I'm thinking I'm back what I'm saying is why why did we not lead the show ok how do we get to Derek Henry this week I feel like last year we would of we're not this year well I have a trend on it like to go from like headliner to trend. Like he's like a mid card play now, like in terms of like talking points. I think part of it's because the value of a receiver is so bad. Yeah. But, and also because I love Alvin Camaro. I know I said that like 16 times, but we're just gonna keep going back to it. The Jets traded for James Robinson due to the Breeze Hall injury. Robinson did practice Wednesday, but he's reportedly dealing with knee soreness. He did pass his physical, which is good, I guess. But Corey Davis also missed practice due to an knee injury. He has a shot to miss this week. How will you handle Michael Carter if Robinson winds up inactive this week? And what if Robinson plays? And three questions. Any interest in the pass catchers with Elijah Moore back, but Davis potentially out. Okay. So if we get Carter with no Robinson, I'd consider him because we know that he's gotten the pat. We know Pollard's one. Rank him compared to Mostert and Forman. If we assume there's no Chubbard. Mostert over Carter, because Carter is salary 66. I'd rather play Mostert in a much, much better offensive situation. I think Carter probably still be fourth then. I agree. And if Robinson is active, no Carter? Yeah, I don't think we need it. I'd rather just bank on Forman in that case. And pass catchers. So I thought Garrett Wilson initially was intriguing. Salary at 5,400. We definitely, at least on Monday, we could have used that. He has a team best 21% target share in games with Zach Wilson, but that's only five targets per game. A catch rate over expectation of minus 17 percentage points, which is dreadful. And the ADOT is 4.7 yards. So I think based on that amount, even at 54, we could get this squeaky wheel game for Elijah Moore at 5,000, but that's also pure guesswork. And I also don't like this passing offense enough. I feel like I'd be bogging down lineups with a potential for like a 1.7 point game. I'm probably gonna use Elijah Moore. Do we need to now? Do we need to now? No, but I might. If I wanna get like a Pollard, Kamara, Henry lineup in there, which I'll want at times, I might use Elijah Moore. Should I? No. This is a do as I say, don't as I do. Or do as I say, not as I do. I don't think you should use him, but I probably will if I'm being transparent. They seem to like him. As in like his teammates seem to like him. Seemed like he was in a good mood Wednesday. No Corey Davis. Davis has been like the the wet blanket on the just passing game with Zach Wilson. I feel like I would. Well, and also like the other thing too is he's a good stylistic match with a Patriots defense because they let up a lot of deep targets like their eight out allowed is third or fourth highest, fifth highest, top five, I think in the league. And that's kind of the reason he's been down this year is he's been getting so much downfield work. So, and now they might not be able to run as effectively with no James Robinson or with no Breeze Hall. Breeze Hall was taking targets as well. I think there are enough factors saying I can justify Elijah Moore again, not recommend him, but justify him to myself. Yeah, the Patriots 32nd and passing eight out allowed based on my numbers and 31st in yards per target allowed on downfield passes. So more Elijah again, don't listen to me, but I'm going to do it. Mac Jones sounds like he will resume his starting role for the Patriots this week. They get the jets, any interest in any Patriots pass catchers with the return of the Mac. You know, I usually like Jacobi Myers well enough, but he's I think 6600. That's which I was actually relieved by because like his target is the past two games of Taekwondo and Thornton being back had been down. And it's like, okay, cool. I don't have to worry about Jacobi because the salary is super high. Yeah. If he were like 6,000, I'd be like, okay, I really got to think long and hard about this is he the better play, but it's 66. I think it's a bit too elevated. I agree for me. And again, I don't want to, I don't really like to, if you got two quarterbacks, you don't have any. And in this case, even if you have any to begin with, I'll bring back the dongle. Anyway, I did look into Taekwondo and Thornton for awhile, 17% share in his two games, the full-time player, 40% deep share with 33% in the red zone, got a red zone rush as well. So I looked into it, I'm probably not going to get there. I think I'd rather use Elijah Moore. I'd rather use George Pickens. So Wandao 59, it's a little bit higher. I guess Taekwondo is 57. What am I talking about? I'd rank Wandao above Taekwondo as well. I think that's fair. Josh Reynolds and TJ Hawkinson, both missed practice Wednesday for the Lions. Both guys played through injuries last week, although Hawkinson's might have been new. Montrose and Brown got in a limited session. He should be good to go. And DeAndre Swift was a full participant, meaning he is likely to return this week. That is fun. We'll talk about them in the bookmaker section. Both James Connor and Darryl Williams got into practice on Wednesday. Talk about the Cardinals in the bookmaker section. Debo Samuel missed practice Wednesday with a hamstring injury. Sounds like he's got a legit shot to sit here. Cal Youscek also sat out practice and he may miss this week, which would be a bummer for the rushing game and apparently the downfield passing game too. How would those absences, if we assume Debo and Youscek sit, alter your view of Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Brandon Ayuk? So usually we downgrade offenses when they lose key pieces. It's not like a one-for-one. Oh, guys are just gonna get more volume. So it's gonna be an overall positive. But in this case, I think it's a plus because we have guys who moved the needle to begin with, there are just too many of them. I would, you know, if there's no Debo, I would, we were kind of shaping up where Christian McCaffrey was a write-down play as of Monday. I feel like we're moving away from that. That could be a mistake, especially with no Debo. Brandon Ayuk's salary of 6,700 was too high. I think it's much more reasonable if there's no Debo. And then George- Reasonable but not desirable, correct? He's not gonna be someone that I'm trying to put into a cash game lineup or a, like a single entry, I'd rather play is a lot, a lot of a still 69, right? So like, a lot of A over IU, 10 times out of 10 for me. Correct. And it makes me think twice about George Kittle because if he has a portion of the ceiling he used to have, he can really change the slate. And if we're gonna get some value at running back, it's a little bit reckless not to think about a tight end who can really change things. I think that he'd be the one I'd be most inclined to use. Well, I mean, McCaffrey's a given, but like I think I'd prefer Kittle over Ayuk, which it sounds like you were saying as well. And I think if we get both Foreman and Pollard as like legit full time backs, I can probably actually get there. Let's build them out now. Put Camara in there, Skittle-Kittle and we'll put Tyreek and we'll put Aman, no, no. Oh yeah, that's fine. Just kidding. Yeah, this works. So I can actually get to Kittle pretty easily if I have both Foreman and Pollard and still use Tyreek Hill and Aman-Russein Brown in like a hypothetical lineup. So I would probably be decently high on Kittle if there were no Devo this week. Same. Okay. Van Jefferson got into a limited practice on Wednesday. He's tracking to make his debut after missing the first six games of the knee injury. They need juice. Van Jefferson has some juice. Would you give him some consideration at $54 if he does play? Minimal consideration and probably not enough that I would actually play him. Let's say I'm playing 20 lineups. He's not gonna be part of that. I'd have to play 50 lineups, I think. Yeah, that's probably correct. Where would I view him compared to Elijah Moore? I'm asking myself this. I'd probably go Van by a smidge because they can't run and the Jets want to run. So I would probably go Van over Elijah Moore. He would need to like, so the good thing is I think he's been technically activated from IR. Let me check this because that means we actually get practice reports on him whereas if he were still on IR we wouldn't see what his practice status is. Yeah, so he's off of IR which means we actually know what his practice is. If he gets a full practice in by Friday I'll probably be on him. Not like super, super high but I'd probably use him to increase my exposure to Henry, increase my exposure to Kittle and stuff like that. A little bit, a little bit of usage there. Also as a way to decrease my George Pickett's exposure which would probably be a wonderful thing because it was shaping up to be a lot earlier on this week and I need to backpedal on that. Nico Collins this practice Wednesday with a groin injury. He seems unlikely to play this week. Does this make Brandon Cooks or any other Texans pass catcher viable to you? Did you say no? That's it, no. Okay, good. We're gonna move on then. Two bookmaker at your video glitch for a second I couldn't tell. I was like, are you making me wait for this? I was like, are you gonna bomb the drop? I'm using something? No, we're not using Texans. Okay, let's start things off in the bookmaker section with the lone 50 point total for this week. That is the Dolphins and the Lions. That's a 51 and a half. Dolphins favored by three and a half. This gives the Dolphins actually the highest implied total on the slate above the Eagles. The Lions defense has been booty. So that makes sense. How are you handling this game and how high will you be on Tua Tunga by Loa at quarterback? How I'm handling it is I want exposure to a lot of these guys. With Tua specifically, he's probably shaping up to be my default quarterback. And despite the hat, I'm not like a Dolphins home or anything like that, which is why I usually try not to wear my NFL hats on NFL shows, but I have no affiliation to any teams. Although I did grow up a Dolphins fan and then an Eagles fan. Just want to make, you know, clear the air. This is not like a Homer thing. There's also a reason why I don't talk about my affiliation. I hold up my James Chadwick Pennington figurine. It's hard to talk sports and have favorite teams and stuff. Yeah, it is. I just kind of died. But Tua, he's the guy that I'm trying to get into my lineups. And with the value and with this value only being 7,700, it's very easy. So I might be in, I might be in danger of getting overexposed to Tua a little bit. That's sort of more of my concern. As for the other pieces here, you know, we can stack him with Tyreek, Waddle, Mike Gasicki's roles getting better. And it's a little bit stickier too, even with Durham's smith back. Where he most certainly like. And then on the other side, it's more specifically going to be Amon Ross St. Brown and DeAndre Swift. I want to make sure I get enough Swift in his return. Seems like he's been close to returning, but they've been cautious with him. So he should be four to go. But that's a lot of ways to go with this game. And I guess maybe the deep, the difficult part is narrowing down exactly how I'm going to get exposure to it most often. Yeah. So I think that what I want to do is lob off the fringe guys. Like I think that you're right to bring up Gasicki because like his role has gotten better. Even like you said, a Durham smith active last week still had a good route rate, good snap rate, good matchup and not a bad salary, but I'd rather lob him off to make my self more concentrated around this game. So just going with Waddle and Hill. And then I will have most of it in there too. I don't really care about the passing game overlap there. I'm okay having everyone in there at the same time. On the lion side, I think it will be Amon Ross St. Brown and DeAndre Swift for me. Hawkinson being banged up makes it a bit easier to justify, you know, being off of him. Amon Ross St. Brown apparently did not suffer a concussion last week and he's $2,200. So we got a salary reduction. We know what he can do. This dolphin secondary is banged up, just lost his safety to IR. I think he makes a lot of sense. The question is, will you get to Swift outside of Game Stacks because I have both Alvin Camara and Damian Pierce above him. And if I'm going to be using Mostert, I'm going to be using Foreman, Pollard, et cetera, then I kind of have to lop somebody off. So I think that Swift might wind up being Game Stacks only for me, unfortunately. Yeah, he's close to it. I want to sit here and offer a bet for Swift versus Pierce, but I still question Swift's red zone rule enough where I would not actually want to go that route. And I think that having Pierce above him is largely a result of that. Like I love Swift, the player, I love the juice he has shown. I think that they'll use him in a fun way, but the red zone rule is the least a concern enough. So he's probably Game Stacks only. Waddle and Hill will not be Game Stacks only. I think that they are awesome, relative to salary. Now Waddle in non-Game Stacks, I'd probably try to just go with Deandre Hopkins because Waddle, salary 78, Hopkins 79. I think I'd just go Hopkins there, but Tyreek among the high, high salary guys, I prefer him over Devontae, from over Justin Jefferson, from over Cup. I think he's my number one guy above 8,000 this week. I agree with that. Okay, anything else in this game for you? Are we good to move on? I think that's probably it. Okay, total for the Raiders and the Saints has been arising as the week's gone along. Brandon messaged me on Tuesday, like a demon asking about games for the bookmaker section. And I said, I don't really want to talk about this game because I think it sucks. And then the total went up like two points. And I'm like, okay, I guess we'll talk about it. 49 and a half right now, the Raiders favor by 1.5. I think it, I'll check that. Yeah, I think it's whatever. New Orleans defense has fallen short of expectations this year and the Raiders rank 28th in my 2022 only defensive metrics. Neither offense is lifted up. So that's why I have my reservations still. The aid here is that we have fun names of both sides. So how are you viewing this game overall from a stacking perspective? Well, it's a no quarterback game, which we always dislike whenever we are talking about one of the best games of the week because that decreases the amount of stacks we can actually get to it because we can have many stacks all we want with Camara and... Waller. Probably, I mean... And Jacobs, Jacobs, despite the fact that he's not like a priority for me above this other guy is like, he's still like an option for sure. I mean, that's not like an anti-Devante Adams thing. He's been good. I just don't know if I can rank him. I think I would need to have two receivers in the 8,000 range in a lot of to get there because I just prefer Tyreek by a really good amount. Yeah, and a very obvious way to pivot in these situations is to another stud receiver. So it's not like an, again, it's not like an anti-Devante thing, but how do you stack this game? I guess Olavé and Devante maybe. Yeah, I would say, honestly, I'd say Camara Olavé and Waller is a good way to stack it without overexposing yourself to it financially. Yeah, it's just a pretty narrow... I think that's the one benefit of this game is that it's... It is. So it feels like we should be higher on it. It's okay if we're not. Well, let me talk about why I'm high on Camara then. He hasn't scored yet this year somehow. And that's not like, oh, I'm gonna use him because he hasn't scored. That's stupid. I'm not gonna do that. But if you look at his base... But in this case, because he gets so much work. Yeah, I mean, I'm not actively seeking him out because he hasn't scored. What I am doing is actively seeking out his workload. His baseline workload is sick. He actually leads this slate in adjust opportunities per game in each guy's most relevant sample at 29.4. Second is Saquon Barkley at 29.0. And Camara's red zone share is 41.5%. That is a very good number. He hasn't scored yet. And I know that Tayson Hill is annoying. I know that they can use someone else down there too. But he's gonna have a three touchdown game before the end of the year. Maybe not, because that's a lot. But he's gonna have an eruption and I'm gonna be there when it happens. I need to be because he has that within his range of outcomes and I need to account for that. And it's not baked into his salary at 78. He has scored 20.4, 15.4, and 14 fandal points in the past three weeks with no touchdowns. Absurd. If you give him one touchdown, that's 20 automatically. Give him two, it's 26 in the worst game in that sample. So I think Camara outside of Pollard is my favorite play of the entire slate. I'm close to it, yeah? Yeah. I think that I'm not gonna go where I'm going with this one but it's very nice to see the elevated fantasy points without the touchdowns because that means that with touchdowns where there's a path to an eruption spot. So we're both in agreement. Chris Olave 69, I think is the best receiver in the 6,000 range by a tier. Is he a full tier above everyone for you in that range? Cause he is for me. Yeah, this is not a particularly good tier. Again, I can make a case for Terry McCormann but not at that salary. I'd have to play a lot of lineups to get relevant exposure to Terry over Olave. I like IUK and in Jacobi Myers but I think there may be a little bit over salary before IUK cannot play Deontay Johnson. Your boy Josh Reynolds, just the mega salary increase. He's no longer my boy. He's been crossed off the Christmas list. It's definitely his fault that his salary got increased. Yeah, so Olave is number one. Like we talked about this a lot in PGA DFS when like, oh, what's the difference between a $93 dollar golfer and like an 87? Like if there isn't one, you just go down in salary. I see no difference between Myers down to like the mid 5,000 range. Like why would I pay a premium for someone who has the same output? So I think Olave is a full tier by everyone else in this range for sure for me. Let's finish up with our third game here in the bookmaker section. That is the Cardinals at the Vikings. Cardinals, three and a half point underdogs here but the money line has been tightening during the week. So some money on the Cardinals that's never gone poorly. Total is 48 and a half. We know both sides have interesting names but both these teams regularly give us the big old middle finger. What's your view of this game? Again, I like it a little bit less than probably consensus, which probably just justifies the fact that I want to stack Miami and Detroit a lot. Sure. It's a one quarterback game. It's closer to like a half quarterback game because I'm not sold on Kyler. I do like what I saw from this team with DeAndre Hopkins at least. There was a true alpha within this team. James Connors is going to be back, right? Yeah. So like, I don't know if that makes Benjamin dust but- Makes me entire backfield dust. I'm not going to chase it because I don't want to be wrong when there are a lot of easier ways to be right. So the only, I was saying the only ways to get exposure but the primary ways to get exposure is high-side receivers with like a Hopkins Jefferson stack but that's going to take a true like Pollard form and most shirts start with like a value quarterback as well. I don't know if I can do that very often. Yeah, I think well, you can probably get there with like Tua to that lineup. So that's fine. But also you'd probably want Waddle or Tyreek in there. So would you want to do that? Yeah, exactly. So I think that Hopkins individually is like an amazing play. Rick came back to a very good role this past week. They used him in creative ways, getting him around the formation. I think that's pretty encouraging. So I love him. Jefferson I have below Tyreek as mentioned in the 8,000 range. I would want to get him in gain stacks because he is a guy who has like slate changing upside and like the 2021 Cooper cup where it's like, well, why didn't I just use Justin Jefferson? He's had a hundred yards in four out of six games. He's had 140 in three out of those. So I need to get there. But it's like, it is kind of a bummer to like have to wedge a guy in like that. But I feel like I have to based on the ceiling that he possesses. Question for you about the secondary options in this game because Hopkins, Jefferson, fine. Dalf fine, but not a priority for me relative to Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Camero. But we have Adam Thielen at 62. I think that his workload is good enough to make him viable. Irv Smith is 5,000. I don't want to use him, but it's a good matchup for tight ends. And he's a hazelow salary in theory has a ceiling, but I haven't really seen like the building blocks for it like in practice as of yet. And then also Rondale Moore slash made me Robbie Anderson. I prefer Rondale cause I think that Robbie's kind of dusty, but what's your view of the secondary option in this game? Yeah, I think that I'm going to talk, I have a trend on value receivers and one of the best things to do if you're, if you have to play value receivers or you want to play value receivers, you put them in from games that can shoot, you just be true shootouts. And while we can nitpick Rondale Moore's role and his lack of downfield work generally, put him in a game that's very promising for scoring points. I think we have to bump him up manually from like what general projections would have him at. Feeling is also interesting. He's got a 20% target in-game target share in three of the past four games at 62. He hasn't been getting like as much red zone work as he has and I know that some Vikings fans like to point out that he'll never regressed because of how good he is in the red zone and how much he's used, but I think feeling is very viable this week. Yeah, so if we look at the past five games, so Irv Smith was limited the first game. So I lopped that one off, but the past five games of the Vikings, Jefferson leads with a 28% target share, dealing a second at 21%, Irv is a 15%, which is viable enough for a tight end. Deep targets though, 27% for Jefferson, 27% for Thielen. His yard per route run is awful, which is why I like didn't really wanna go here, but like he is getting some downfield work. Now the problem with that quote unquote deep share is that they're not throwing deep very often right now. I'm guessing because the offensive line, but Thielen, I think against a pretty aggressive defense, I think that could aid him because he's more of like a crafty type guy than a, he was a burner when he was younger, but he's more of like a crafty type guy at this point in his career. 25% red zone share in that time is gross to like Adam Thielen, but I think that he is like an actual like fine play this week. I could not justify using him over Olave if I had, like if I had the ability to recraft a lineup to get to Olave, I would just get to Olave, but if I can't do that, I think Jefferson is the next, or Thielen is the next most viable guy in the 6,000 range. Yeah, so in that sample, Thielen, as you mentioned, 25% red zone share, but 33% of the end zone targets, it's 44% for Jefferson. You know, again, I think Thielen is one of the best value receivers on the slate because of the game he's playing in. Yeah. Will you get to Rondale? Cause I think I will, but. In Game Stacks, yeah. Any Robbie or no? No. And then any Erts? Probably in Game Stacks cause Thielen's so, I don't wanna say like, like irrelevant, but there aren't good play, like great plays. Yeah. So I might as well put guys in from games I wanna stack. I agree with that, but still kind of wanna avoid him just because I think I can justifiably bump down his target share with Hopkins being there. And that was kind of the only thing he had going for him. So I think I'll try to avoid it if I can't. Let's talk about those value receivers more and dig into the trends for week number eight. You're talking about the hit rate of value wide receivers and how to find good ones because I don't know. So talk me through it, Brandon, how do we find good value wide receivers or is it a fruitless endeavor? Yeah. I mean, I don't wanna ever wanna say it's like completely fruitless, but it's important this week. I thought it's gonna be way more important when I started doing this trend. Then it might be this week because we might not have to be down here. It was shaping up like we might need multiple value receivers to make a lineup work because we didn't have value anywhere else. But a big part of DFS is hitting on the right value plays and every single week there are value plays that put up good numbers, but they're not as easy to predict before as they are to look back in hindsight. And I think that that really, really matters. So I wanted to see the hit rate of value receivers. So I pulled pregame projections and data for receivers since 2016. Again, obviously number fire projections here. If I look solely at receivers on main slates with salaries below 6,000 who are projected for at least 1.75 Fandal points per thousand in salary. So about 9.6 is 5,500 or 8.8 at 5,000. It's about four per week, which makes sense. There are usually like four guys we kind of consider in the 5,000 range above the rest and then everyone else is sort of a dice roll. That consideration set of value receivers with just three X values to three Fandal points per thousand in salary just 13.8% of the time. And again, these are the better projected receivers. The weaker projected value plays just to put some context around like it's not just that the projections are projecting guys and they're not really hitting. Again, it's also a three times value threshold which is pretty rare to begin with but if you look at the guys who are projected for weaker value outputs but still projected for about at least five Fandal points so they're not just looking at like the 4,000 range of guys who don't play. They get there 9.6% of the time so about 4 percentage points less often as the guys with better projections and that really adds up over a nine player lineup. So seems small but it's pretty massive. So unsurprisingly, the better projected guys are typically the better plays but those are also against small rates and it's again, very easy to cherry pick after the fact than to predict ahead of the time. So what are some characteristics of games in which a value receiver ends up being good and sort of erupting and blowing up at value? So for this, I'll look at the all of the value hits not just the guys who have good projections all of the value receivers below 6,000 who hit three times value in their games. One thing that really jumps out is that matchups matter extra. 21% of these big games came against bottom six adjusted past defenses. It's about 18 and a half to 19% for the full sample but most importantly, guys against top six adjusted past defenses really underperform by comparison. So they're more matchups sensitive, which makes sense but sometimes we can forget that as we're building lineups looking at market shares trying to project who has the best role. Matchups matter more for these guys. The average over under for these hit rates these receivers who hit 46.3 versus a sample average 45.8 so not a huge discrepancy there but obviously the higher over under the better average wind about six miles per hour. Now the teams, the offenses for the team receivers to hit average 26.7 points but notably their opponents also averaging 25.4 points. So that means these guys are typically coming from shootout games. The average point total being 52.1 beating that average over under by a good amount. This makes me less interested in one-off plays. I think that was the big takeaway is like was it last week we liked Romeo Dobbs a little bit probably shouldn't have because I didn't like that game I didn't think it was gonna be a shootout. I think I need to bump up guys in potential shootouts such as I know Adam Thielen 62 doesn't quite fit but Adam Thielen, Rhonda Moore these guys who may not even have the best projections but are in these games that typically produce these hits more often than not. If I look at the actual value receivers on the list who have generally roughly meet these criteria we have about four. We have Robert Woods at 5,700 he's projected for about 1.76 fandal points per thousand in salary but is facing the 28th ranked adjust defense. I don't think I'm gonna get there but he is someone who kind of fits and I wouldn't have looked at him otherwise. Adam Thielen fits below average pass defense as well. Garrett Wilson at 5,400 but is facing a top eight adjusted pass defense. I don't really wanna stack that game. So I think he was almost a consideration for me. I think I'm crossing them off for that reason. And then Drake London pretty good matchup but we know that the passing volume's down. Don't love that. Maybe if I try to get weird and stack that game I guess but I think that this means I'm open to Adam Thielen a lot more. That was the one stand out here. Not a whole lot of guys fit that this week. I think that banking on too many value receivers this week is a losing proposition and that is ultimately why as much as I love the value running backs it's ultimately why I think I'm gonna be low on the stud running backs because I can't feel good about many value receivers. So what are you thinking about value receivers for this week? I think we're gonna see guys like London and Wilson be optimizer favorites. We talked about that a lot. Like guys pop, I ran optimizer while you're talking to see who popped up and it was London. So that's not super enticing to me just because we know what that team wants to do. And the same thing with Wilson like they want her on the football. So it's hard to get super high on guys in the situation. One guy who I thought was somewhat interesting doesn't really fit your checklist but is in the feeling mold right above 6,000 is Darno Mooney. We know the Bears want to be run heavy but I'm not sure they'll be able to against Dallas and he's $6,100. Robert Woods has had 40 yards once this year but Mooney has a 50 plus yards in four straight games. I think that like for me the takeaway is value this week seems worse than usual. So I'd rather try to avoid it via guys like Theland via guys like using the value running backs to avoid it and maybe via potentially Darno Mooney which feels bad but might be in play. So I think that my kind of takeaway is more so like I just, I think that your process is right which is why I'm less enthused this year than I was before. Yeah, so again, like I'm sure I've talked about similar things in the past but it really makes sense to target these guys in games where, because they're based on their salaries are based on their production which are in like games that these teams typically play. If you inject them into a much better game or you just, as Jim likes to do, make assumptions like you're building Tony Pollard lineups for example you say it's because Dallas is gonna put up a bunch of points that makes Darno Mooney someone who I completely overlooked time and time again as I was scrolling through here. If we say, okay, it's gonna be a bit more of an offensive shootout for the bears based on what they typically do. We should look at Darno Mooney over who else is in this? Like, Chase Maipul? Chase Maipul? Sorry, the same team that I'm gonna ask you about this. Yes, I mean, you could make the case similar, again similar case if you're playing like Jalen Hurts, A.G. Brown, you're like this is a stack that people aren't gonna get to because of the spread or whatever then play like a George Pickens but if you're playing like Tony Pollard be more open to Darno Mooney. So I mean, again, it's not groundbreaking to say value receivers are hard to find and we shouldn't trust them but- It's a good reminder do you have though? It's a good reminder and especially this week like you can lock it, like you can consider and you'll add you more but if you don't like that game so much or Garrett Wilson, like if you don't like that game as much maybe look elsewhere. So Ron Dale doesn't fit the projection aspect of it but does check a lot of the other boxes. I think that kind of goes back to what you said like maybe bump up his projection a bit and like make him justifiable. George Pickens is fully antithetical to almost everything you just discussed. Would you still consider him due to like workload or do you think that the takeaways are definitive enough where we should just seek out guys like Ron Dale Moore in games we prefer to stack? So I think like you can make the case though for Pickens like you can say that there's gonna be more passing volume and Pickens is the only guy fortunately for the Steelers doing anything with his volume like by a mile he's overperforming Clay Paul and Deontay underperforming drastically. So like if you like the Eagles you can like George Pickens if you hate the Eagles and you don't like that game I would avoid George Pickens. That's kind of how I think I need to think about this stuff now. So let's talk about the Eagles and dive into my first trend and talk about what they do while they're playing from ahead because I mean it's easy to like the Eagles offense this week against the Steelers in the second highest implied total on the Slates they have the second highest projected offensive efficiency by my numbers as well behind Miami. They're also 10 and a half point favorites against a Pittsburgh offense they could torch to the ground. So I wanted to dig in and see how they operate while ahead to see what we should do with them in the situation and luckily for us it's a huge sample they've been up by a lot this year. They have run 149 plays while leading by two or more scores so nine plus points. Their pass rate in the situation is 47% and the second half that falls to 40%. In the four games the Eagles have won by more than seven points. Hertz has averaged 29 pass attempts. A 25% target share on 29 attempts is 7.25 targets. Additionally, they're not that aggressive when they do throw. Hertz's A-dot is 7.4 when they're leading by eight plus points, leak hour to 7.7 in that scenario. And that's also been down overall recently could be because they didn't have Jordan Milada for a game and a half, didn't have Lane Johnson for half a game but even the half they played with Johnson and Milada back it was still down. In that Monday or Sunday night game against Dallas it was still down in that one before Johnson got hurt. It was 4.0 for the full game 4.4 before Johnson got hurt. So this is a long way of saying I'm not sure much upside there is in the past catchers here. I do like Dallas Goddard. I think that he has enough workload relative to his position but I'm really, really wishy-washy on AJ Brown and Devontae Smith. Miles Sanders doesn't get enough work from you to super high on him when Boston Scott is active. Am I overthinking this? Are you hesitant too? And what's your view of Jill and Hertz in a likely super, super positive script? So there's a lot of questions. Where should I start? Hertz. Hertz. I don't know that the passing volume will be there and you can get away with efficiency. Like efficiency matters more for quarterbacks than just the volume. But we could see this team just run for some touchdowns with some handoffs. Of course, Hertz can be part of that. I think that the ceiling is capped. I was trying to dig back because we looked at the bill's offensive tendencies back in week five when playing with the lead. And I know I had some notes on like some big favorites but I'm not out on Asia Brown because we do see that yardage upside is there for receivers who are heavily favored. Even if it doesn't seem like it would be, though the wide receiver one tends to benefit because they just usually are the path to the eruption. And if it is going to be a blowout, the offensive team has to do something. Typically that leads through a quarterback and his top receiver. And then after that happens, it scales back. So like I'm not out on A.J. Brown. I would be lower on Devante Smith. I like Dallas Goddard, but I'd be a little bit low on him because I don't know if he needs to have seven, eight targets in this game. So ultimately what I'm thinking is I will have, let's stick with a 20 lineup example. I'd probably have three to four Jalen Hertz with the pass catcher so that I could play George Pickens. Is it bring back? I think I'm okay with that. It's not like a write-off situation because again it's not like they got a 20% pass rate in these spots and for this team to get ahead there is still gonna be some production. So I'm probably higher on the Eagles than you are but I'm also not going full war here. Well, I think that what my takeaway from it would be if I were to like summarize it in a thesis statement is that I still like the Eagles this week. I am just putting a cap on how exposed I get to them because there are paths to disappointment. I think that's what I would say. Like I'm still gonna use them. Like you said, we might be on the same page with Hertz honestly, like probably number two quarterbacks still. I don't know, that's hard. But like I'm still gonna use him. I will use him. I will weasel him in there no matter what but I'm not gonna have him as my number one and I'd rather use my salary savings at receiver personally than with Hertz. Yeah, historically speaking, heavy-favored quarterbacks they'll get you like 24. But will they get me 35? But they probably don't get you 35 because they don't need to. Right, and there might not be anybody on the side to get 35. That's fully possible, but I'd rather spend less to get not 35. Or can someone at a lower salary get you 24 as well? Correct, exactly. So let's move now to your second trend talk about the game that actually ranks second in projected efficiency for me right now on offense. That is the Seahawks and the Giants. Now that's before baking in DK Metcalf if he sits and before baking in weather but I think this game is kind of spicy. You're talking about the Giants offense. What are you seeing there? Yeah, so two of the, or one of the, let me start over two of the three games that we talked about in the book. I was like, I don't know. We do this live. We'll do it live. Two of the three games we talked about in the bookmaker section, we seem to be a little bit lower on than what we would assume consensus would be with the dolphins and lions being the outlier there. This is the game I think that you and I would be higher on than a lot of people. And now we're getting a lot of weather concerns. So I want to make that caveat very, very clear, but even with that, it's probably in, it's probably the fourth ranked game in the tier of its own. I don't think it's, with the concerns, I don't think it's in the same tier as the top three, but I think it's also tier above the other games, but this could still be an offensive shootout. And so I think that means we need to take a look. The Giants without Kenny Gallade, Kaderius Tony, and of course, Sterling Shepard. Daniel Bellinger did not practice on Wednesday. He got a pretty nasty eye injury this past week. And I think that that leads to a few obvious plays potentially for the Giants assuming that the health all goes the way that it's trending. Starting with Wanda Robinson, returned in week six, played just 23% of the snaps, but then up that to 67% a week ago. In those two games, even with Robinson limited in week six, he leads the team with a 22% target share. Darius lightens it 17%. Seyquan Barkley and Marcus Johnson at 13%. In these two games, Daniel Jones, I know, we're probably not thinking Daniel Jones, but if the weather holds off, I think he's probably more in consideration than we'd like to admit. Daniel Vickie mean 22.4 Fandal points per game, despite just 187 and a half passing yards. He's averaging, he went over 100 rushing yards last week. I know that, but I still averaging seven carries per game. He has the ability to have rushing upside on the ground. He has 21 or more yards and six of seven games rushing. You'll like that. He has at least six rushes in each game. I'm not saying that we like load up on Daniel Jones, but if the weather subsides and this turns into a game that we wanna stack, this might be a two QB game, at least the one and a half QB game, that's appealing. He's also been pretty efficient over expectation in the split. I'm just saying. We would love to play Saquon as much as we can against the Seattle rush defense. It's allowed 0.51 rushing yards over expectation per carry. At 9,500, it's a bit hard to justify, but again, if we get DK, the weather subsides, like this is the game that I think we're both targeting as could be the most fun. I'm obviously gonna be highest on Wandale. He was just featured in the first half last week until he got nicked up. Darius Slaten at 5,700. Again, if I'm playing game stacks, if I'm learning anything from my first trend, Darius Slaten, I should be higher on him when I'm stacking this game than I would be otherwise and not do a one-off with like the George Pickens if I'm lower on that game. So how do you see yourself getting exposure to the Giants offense and how worried are you about the weather for this one? Yeah, it's at 11 miles per hour, the wind right now. The problem is we'll just move the weather section now because why not? It's the only game that's noteworthy there. The wind gets worse later, like right after the game is done. So if that were to change, if that window were to change and the wind got worse, I would be down pretty far. I'd also downgrade the game entirely, like not a lot but I downgrade the game as a whole if DK Metcalfe were to not play. I think he's, I think his odds of playing are higher than people are giving him credit for right now. It seems like they're assuming he's out. I think he'll probably be out but I'm not assuming that he'll be out right now. It's just light rain right now. So that's not terrible either. So if the wind were to come down like two miles per hour-ish, like nine miles per hour with light rain, no issues for me. I think that's totally fine. I would be okay with the one down at 59. I think Saquon is like I wanna have him in my player pool. Will it be a heavy exposure thing? No, because I probably can't and I like some other guys more like Derek Henry but I'd like to weasel in a couple for Saquon. Yeah, I think that mentioning Daniel Jones, I think you phrased it correctly saying it's a one and a half quarterback game if we get clearance because Gino is in there assuming that the weather is okay, assuming Metcalfe were to play, maybe even without Metcalfe, oh, I'd be a lot lower on him then revenge game too. I think Jones is at least like a consideration. Will I get there? I'm not sure. I would lean probably not but I'm open to him and would give him thought. And I think that's more than I would have said two weeks ago just like the running, like we want running quarterbacks and Hertz runs, Kyler occasionally runs, then like sometimes I'm fangirl to let you bet, like, hey, league leader in receiving yards this week. If I could bet quarterback rushing yards, the guy to lead the slate in quarterback rushing yards, like I'd wonder what Daniel Jones's odds were for that. So he's a consideration. I might not get there, but he's a consideration. Yeah, I'm with you. Again, I still don't know who my second quarterback love is gonna be for the week. That's not like a, it's like a cop out. It's like I don't, nobody else ranks in the tier of two. Yeah, I agree. Okay, let's talk about the Texans defense now because we know we're pretty strapped for value on the large part for this week, which might make it tough to get Derek Henry. And if you use Henry even with like a Foreman and an apollard situation, you're probably using a 5,000 range wide receiver to get there. But I think it might be worth that trade off because the match up here pretty good. My blended model of a prior and a 2022 data has Houston ranked 28th against the Rush, which is pretty rough. But if you look at just early downs in 2022 adjusted for opponents, they are an outlier and how awful, how wretched they are. They're at 0.15, rushing net expected points per carry allowed, which is like twice the NFL average from a passing perspective. It's like 0.07 or 0.08 this year. They're rushing allowed as 0.15, it's absurd. No other team is above 0.12 and only one of their team is higher than 0.09. They're hideous. The Texas have led up 140 or more rushing yards, just rushing three times in six games. They've also led up 40 plus receiving yards to a back three separate times. They're bad. Henry 130 more yards or more yards from scrimmage in forced rate games. He ranks third on the slate in adjust opportunities per game and his 47.2% red zone share ranks third behind Kenneth Walker and Damian Pierce and each guy's most relevant sample. Using Henry does force us to go with an alternate roster construction and there is a big opportunity cost in doing that but is he worth that bending over backwards for you to get him in your lineup for this week? Oh boy, that's a tough one. I think the best case for Derek Henry is that we are assuming we're gonna get Tony Pollard. And I would play again, I know I use this example but I would play both of them at like 81 and 82 respectively to get up to the same salary total. That helps. We are banking on, we are banking on him to convert but he does have what? Multiple targets in all but one game, I think. He's had a streak of multiple targets recently. So four straight games. He got six, five, two and three targets. I feel like if we, again, it just feels like if we had Derek Henry, like with 58- I think that's a perception problem though and not like an actual like Derek Henry problem. Like our perception of him might just be too low. Right, that's what I'm saying. I'm trying to figure out why Derek Henry with 58, 33, 30 and 10 receiving ours in his past four games with 30, 28, 22 and 20 carries is not like, we gotta lock him in, like not lock him in but like we gotta get 50% exposure here. So it's probably like you said, it's a me thing. I just don't know why I'm not fearing it more. I think it's more so because we've been so focused on non-stud running backs this year. So our mindset is not geared towards our default assumptions we have to spend up. Yeah. So I think that like if I have like my, like we talked about like our primary single entry lineup, my primary single entry lineup is very unlikely to have Henry in it. I think I wanna get to Camara with the value running backs and preferably not spend below Olavé at receiver. I can make that, I'm staring at it right now and it looks pretty good. I can make that happen. I'm gonna do that if I can, but I will have like, if I have a five entry contest, I think Henry will be in that five entry, one of the five entries. I agree with that. Okay. Let's go to our positional plays then for week number eight, whether we talked about with Seattle just being the one game it's only three outdoor games, blessed slate. Just wish the one bad game we're not involving Gino. Let's go to our positional plays starting off at quarterback Brandon. I actually have to ask who are you targeting here? Cause I don't know. I don't know either yet. I have two other number one. He's gonna be my main play by far. A high total is a check, low wind is a check in a dome. Good matchup is a check against the 32nd ranked adjusted past defense. Nobody fits the checklists better than Tua this week. Trust me. I'm not advising that he runs the ball, but he did run four times on Sunday night. So he seems to be fully back. Stop it Tua. Don't do that. But yeah. He's got two or three or possibly four. Cause I think we should count most or does a stack candidate with Tua because stacking your quarterback and running back is a plus play. Totally fine. Yeah. He's number one for sure for me. I might pull a gym here, which if anyone doesn't listen to the PGA show, it's not that uncommon for Jim to talk about someone in the win pick section that he didn't talk about. Can I guess? Yeah. Is it Derek Carr? No. Thank goodness. We talked about Derek Carr more than we talked about this guy. Jack? Yeah. Okay. I think that the salary accounts for the potential concerns here at 7,200. We have multiple stack candidates. I don't think that Noah Brown's absence would decrease the efficiency for this team. We could stack DAC and Pollard. Yeah. We could stack DAC and CDLAM, I think. People seem to love CDLAM. CDLAM was super chalky last week relative to the rest of the position. I get it, but like, I think that DAC might be in play at 72. Is that stupid? No. I don't think so. I don't think it'd be that stupid. He's a good quarterback, 72. He was efficient in his return. That's what makes me feel better. With Nozeek, maybe they throw the ball a bit more. And like, I wouldn't deem DAC a pivot off of Pollard. I would say he's a pivot in addition to Pollard to trim down like, duplicated lineups. Cause people who use Pollard probably aren't gonna use DAC. So. Correct. Okay. Yeah, I can't push back on that, I think that's fine. My first quarterback love is to a tongue of Aloha as we Brandon mentioned, you know, he did run a bit last week, shouldn't please don't Tua, but like just a terrible defense. I don't know how they can hang with these pass catchers, honestly. It's indoors, slight favorite, high totally checks every box. We saw upside from him. Like that's a key box to check. We saw that he can torch a team. So I think the Tua makes a lot of sense. If we were to get Geno, if we were to get Metcalf with no, with like lower wind speed, I would be on Geno's my number two quarterback. Without that assurance, I'll go Kyler. Again, I like to use quarterbacks for our slight underdogs because it typically puts a lid on their roster rates. Kyler, three and a half point dog, but money line movement in his favor. So far this week, he's been better with the under Hopkins throughout his career. Last week didn't do a whole lot in terms of fantasy, but remember they were up huge and had two pick sixes. They didn't have to do a whole lot in that game. So at 17.16 fan dual points, despite 29 passes, he ran seven times. I think he's trending up. That's why I'll put him seconds. My conviction in it is not super high, which is why he was not there originally, but I'll go with Tua and Kyler as my top two quarterbacks for this week. Probably hurts third, if I can't get super high on Geno, but I don't know. Running back, what'd you got there? I think we're gonna have the same three and the same four if we pivot. Yeah, cause we can just say universally, Tony Pollard is the number one quarterback or running back of the week. If we get him with nosy, we can just say that as a blanket statement, correct? Yeah, absolutely. Okay, cool. Then who else you have? Alvin Camara, 78. He's got a 20.2% target share overall, which is third best among running backs in games with Andy Dalton. That's 23 and a half percent for eight targets per game. 47% red zone share in those games. We like this game overall. And the Raiders do rank well against the Rush, but are average against running backs out of the backfield. Not that concerned there. I wanna say DeAndre Swift, but I'm gonna go with Damian Pierce at 73 instead. I feel a bit safer with him. The snap rate was down last week, but he had a 68% first half snap rate. That game got a bit out of hand toward the end. The Titans are good in rushing success rate a lot, but the overall matchup is fine for the Texans. It's a two and a half point spread or close spread, so it could be back and forth. And I talked last week about how lower total is for running backs don't matter that much. And then third love is where he most hurt. I do prefer him by a good margin over Deontay Forman as like a second guy in the 6,000 range and as well over Michael Carter if we don't get James Robinson, even if we don't get James Robinson. We've been monitoring him for a while. He's been on the ETN scale for sure, but his snaps have been good recently. 63% at least in four straight games, double digit carries and all four of those, multiple targets and all, but the first game of the season as well. I Detroit terrible, just terrible. So I think that most are is one of the best plays of the week as well. I don't want to overlook that. Yeah, I agree with that. And I think all those points are valid. Those are actually my three as well. Camara, the only thing I'd want to add is like I understand being worried about Taysom Hill. I totally fair, totally fair. It's frustrating. I've been there too, but his actual red zone usage, which is what is better predictor of future touchdowns has been very good. And I can't remember the last time I was this excited about a guy, which is frightening. But like, am I too high on him, Camara or no? Not, not. Well, what do you think an exposure level? 70. I think it's, it'd be more justifiable if the salary was a bit lower. Like if he was being accounted for the fact that like he hasn't scored and like the fantasy points aren't what they could be, but I mean, I'll probably be like 60% this week. Fine, I'll go 75, compromise. Damian Pierce was my number two as well. The other thing I wanted to mention about him is that he has a 52.9% red zone share in his games to lead back, which is sick for running back in 2022. Like that's a very good number. So for 73, the Titans early down defense is, they're very good on third and fourth down, but they're hideous early down. So I think they should move the football here. So I like Pierce a lot. I agree with you where you said Mostert is above Foreman. I just think that I might have Foreman in his tier, whereas you may not. So I put Mostert above Foreman, but in the same tier. And if I want to go in the lineup of Mostert, Foreman and Pollard and just go bananas at receiver, I kind of like that this week. So we'll see. I think that all those guys pretty intriguing for week number eight. Wide receiver, what are you on there? I'd love to put Tyreek or Deandre Hopkins here, but realistically, I think I'll be a little bit lower with a lot of my receivers, or at least sort of in the mid-range, but I'm going to go Almond Ross, St. Brown 72. Just played minimally last week. That did not actually have a concussion. So kind of just got a salary decrease in a week off. In three games, he's finished. He's got a 31% target share for 11 targets per game, 36% red zone target share as well. And I did not know this, but his dad is a two-time amateur Mr. Universe winner, which is interesting. It talks about that on like every broadcast. I've never heard that. I think I remember this because Northwestern recruited Equinimius. And I remember like looking that up, like when he was like being recruited, he went to Notre Dame, I think eventually because Northwestern sucks. But like, you know, I remember hearing that then it's not quite Antonio Gates play basketball, but it's getting close. So you're going to notice it a lot now though. Now that you've heard it, you're going to notice that a lot. Yeah. Well, I do red zone. So I don't really watch like individual broadcasts. I become a red zone guy and I hate myself for it. I upgraded, well, anyway, it's a long story, but I red zone. We're deep into this. We don't need it. Yeah. Love Chris O'Lave. I might have, he's in consideration for the guy I might end up having the most, like not the most exposure to. That's like a Pollard. Yeah. He's up there. 27% target share in games with Andy Dalton for nine targets per game, 45% air yard share, 132 air yards per game, 2.64 yards per route run in that split, which is like disgusting. That's like an all time level. He's just very good. And then my third love, I think I feel good with Wondale Robinson, almost regardless of just how bad that game gets. Cause I don't think that the wind is going to be like 20 miles an hour or anything like that, but. Right. At 5,900, he has the ability to dominate what his role looked like at the end of that game. 78% first half snap rate last week, all eight of his targets were in the first half. You know, Seattle's not, they're just an average adjusted defense against receivers. Somehow having some good touchdown luck on their end zone targets. And I think it's like a volume based ceiling is definitely in play for Wondale this week. I was going to check. Was he on the injury report at all yesterday? I don't think so. Cause I looked and I was like, I had to double, I went straight to the Giants website too. No, he's not there. Okay. That's even better than. So I was like, oh, did he practice? And it's like better yet. He wasn't even on the injury report. Yeah. I'll take that. That's encouraging. My top love is Deandre Hopkins. I do love the dolphins guys. And I think that Tyreek Hill, I can fit in this week with the value running back. So I'm going to, but Deandre Hopkins, 14 targets in this first game back. He had three deep one in the red zone. They used him in creative ways, which they hadn't in the past. So good game to stack under salary. I love Hopkins. I also love Chris Alave. I went with a different split looping in James because honestly, what's the difference between James and Dalton? Like they're the same dude at this point. But if the games, even if we count the games he has played with Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry, who might not play again, he has a 27% target share, 38% deep, 19% in the red zone. And again, they might not play. The Raiders defense is booty. They're playing indoors. It's a high total. It's tight spread. I find nothing wrong with Chris Alave, which is frightening because he's a receiver. I'm like, I should have something to pick, but I can't. He's amazing. My third level still be George Pickens. I don't know. They're big underdogs. I hate chasing that, but he's $5,500. He has yardage upside if you don't see a lot in this range. He has an 18% target share from Kenny Pickett with 27% of the deep work. He has caught all four of those deep targets. Pickett is two for 10 with four picks on deep throws, not to Pickens. Whereas he's four for four with good efficiency going to Pickens. I'm not like, I don't know. It's not, this is not a gave Davis 6,000 kind of situation where I want to get super high on him. I will rotate in Rhonda Moore, rotate in feeling, rotate in maybe Mooney, Wondale as well. But I think Pickens is still in play for me. Let's go to tight end. Oh no. Oh no. Let me clarify. I just got sick of having the same loves as you. So I switched it up here for tight end. Don't do that. I prefer Jim's two loves. Just use them. Don't want to have notes on them. You can talk about your first one. Don't talk about your second one. How dare you? All right. Then my first one is Mike Kosicki, 5400. Once again, I'm not a Dolphins Homer. I promise just a fantastic matchup this week. Even with Durham-Smith back, Kosicki had his now typical 60% snap rate, 58% round rate or 58% snap rate or better in four straight games. With two of back last week, that was a 20% target share for him on seven targets, just 27 yards, a catch rate over expectation of minus 12%. Downfield target for him, eight out of eight and a half, Lions are 29th and adjusted Vandal points for target, allowed two tight ends and the highest route rate allowed on a per target basis. I think at a certain point that has to speak to your defensive scheme. Once you've played off different teams, like Kosicki, you don't want me to talk about no fan at all. I would rather take a zero than use no offense, but I might take a zero while using no offense. Well, welcome to the tight end. Again, I prefer Jim's two loves. I just got sick of having the same notes as Jim, but no fan at 4,700. If you want to play Jalen Hurts, if you want to play, like if you want to play Justin Jefferson. Go bankrupt. Oh, sorry. I forgot to throw the gas for you. Okay, no fan in Justin Jefferson. Well, I'll find a two V two. I'm going to take the other one. Phantom Jefferson versus like Darren Waller. And again, I like Darren Waller and Jalen Waddle. I'd rather go Waller Waddle. The Giants have a lot of target on 23% of tight end routes so far this season. It's the second highest rate in football. On those routes, they've given up 1.83 yards per out run. That's terrible. It's the fourth highest rate in football. We like this game. We could get this with no DK mech. This is more of like a if DK sits play as well. I don't understand why you're so down on it at 4,700. When will you tilt more after Will Disley's first touchdown or his second? Then why is Disley not at your player picks? Because he has no, he's the worst. They're both the worst. They cannibalize each other. Like, ah, yuck. No, no, ah, fans. No, no, it's literally in the name. No. Fine. George Kittle, how's that? Good, I like it. Okay. My first love is Dallas Goddard. He's the one guy in this passing game I can feel good about because he's tight end, basically. He's had 70 plus yards three times a series. He's had 60 in another. He trails just Travis Kelsey, Mark Anders, and David and Joku in yards per out run among tight ends. So I'll go Goddard if I can get there, 59. If I can't, I'll bump down a bit to the Raiders tight end, which is left open intentionally because I'm not sure if Darren Waller will play. I think he will. But if he does, he's 55. Sweet. Time me up. They may throw more than they did. They have recently. So even if it is Foster Merode 5,000, he had a 20% target share last week, I will happily use Waller if he's a full practice by Friday. The worst case scenario is if he's limited still on Friday, then maybe I dip down to like, first Smith. First Smith. Oh yeah. I know. I know. I would also say if Adam Troutman doesn't play, Joanne Johnson at 52 would be in play again. He's kind of no a fanty, but like, still, I'd rather use him than fans at least. Man, you're just hating. I am hating. That's exactly what I'm doing. Thank you for correctly identifying my emotions. Defense, what you got there? You know what? I was trying to think of a different team, but I'm gonna take yours because... I'd rather you do that to talk about no a freaking fan. I like Washington 3400. I am gonna be dangerously overexposed to this defense. Colts 28th in pass blocking grade. 3400 opens up a lot. Even when, even in lineups where we have value, I'm gonna have a lot of Washington this week. I will too. I'll have a lot of them. I would also say Seattle's in play at 35, facing off. I mean, Daniel Jones played a lot better this year in full respect to him for that. But there's still some Daniel Jones in there where he can get a little erratic, a little loose of the football, a little loosey-goosey. There's wind. Actually, there is a pretty decent tie between wind speeds and defense and special team scoring. It's factored into my model a little bit. Oh, really? Oh, that's cool. Okay, so I like that. I think them at 35 are pretty intriguing. I would say Atlanta is intriguing given the PJ Walker's gotten a lot of like Twitter clips this week. People might be a little bit too high on PJ Walker because he's still an XFL quarterback. So Atlanta 38 despite being hideous is in play. India 39 is in play. So I don't think I'll need to spend above 4,000 for a defense this week. And that to me is very reassuring. Yes, sir. Alrighty, any final thoughts for you, Brandon, before we spend, send off the good people to fill out their laps? I think we covered every game. Literally every player on the slate. Literally every single one. A lot of injuries to go over. So it takes a bit, but we'd rather cover it. And if you don't want to listen, you can skip ahead, but please listen. Especially this week, the injury section is pretty important given the value guys. So hopefully we get Zeke, rest up, feel better. Chubbered, rest up, feel better. We'll talk to you guys next week. And we can, well, I guess Zeke's on vibe, but I'd like to have that value running back so we can just kind of go nuts at receiver and avoid the stupid, stupid value plays as always. Do not forget to subscribe to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy Podcast wherever you get your podcasts for NBA, NFL, PGA, NBA. Did I say that? I did. PGA, USC, NASCAR, all in the same place. Search for the Number Fire Daily Fantasy Podcast wherever you get your podcasts and hit subscribe. And also for the NFL podcasts, make sure you're subscribed to the FanDuel YouTube page. Brandon, if people have questions for you on Twitter or want to talk about little Disney's third touchdown, how can they find you there? Well, they probably won't find me, but my Twitter, I can go with 13, GDULA13. Just don't expect much. It's gonna be Colby Parkinson, isn't it? Wow, I overlooked that. Colby Parkinson's gonna score three times this week. Maybe they all score once and Noah Fan's skill still doesn't score double digits and still is the tight end one in the week. Anyway, I'm on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the FanDuel Podcast network at FanDuel Podcast. Big thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your NFL DFS lineups for week number eight. We'll talk to you once again Monday to wrap it all up. This has been the Heat Shack Fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire.