 Major number two of the 2022 PGA Tour Season is coming up this week. It is the PGA Championship at Southern Hills Country Club. We're going to break down what you need to know about that course, what you need to know about this year's field, and get you set to hopefully fill out some good lineups over on Fanduel.com. Welcome on into the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by NumberFire. That's right here on the Fanduel Podcast Network and NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com. Joined here as always by Brandon Gedula. He is the managing editor, the senior managing editor of NumberFire.com. Brandon, major number two coming up this week. How are you doing today? I'm good. I love major weeks. Obviously great golf, great fields. And then I get to dig in to this prep and just look at all of the world's best golfers and try to split hairs and kind of go, you know, a little bit up the wall trying to figure out how to pick one golfer over the next. It's a, I mean, I guess it's a good problem to have too many good options. But boy, every time I think we break one of these down, it's like, I mean, sure, it looks like you like Rory this week. I don't have an issue with that, but I can't play everyone. So we're going to play a fight on the first, first minute of the podcast. We're, I mean, we've had quicker ones. That's probably fair. I didn't even get to the intro a couple of times and we were yelling. But anyway, I think it was especially tough with regards to like picking and choosing the mid range this week. Like, my goodness, trying to, for our player picks, whittle down the entire nine-ish thousand range to two guys, impossible. And it's not only because like, you know, there are a lot of options, but also like I can nitpick everyone. And I feel like I feel more inclined to nitpick at an event like this where I actually can. The problem is it leads to like, oh, well, I can't go this guy because like, well, I could go this guy instead. And you just kind of like work yourself into a tizzy. And so like, I might just wind up avoiding the tier entirely because you have a lot of options with a field like this where you can mold the lineup into however you want to make it look. And I find that paralyzing, but also kind of freeing at the same time. Yeah, I mean, like, I always feel, I always feel bad whenever I say at the end of a show, like, hey, you know who we talked about, you're going to know who other people, other shows, other articles are talking about. There's a lot of leverage to be gained and just sort of pivoting. But in a major, there's a lot of credence to it. And I I'm seeing some some movement just now on one Brooks Kepka. He is 42 to 1 to win on Fandall Sportsbook. He was 29 to 1 over the weekend. If like people aren't going to play Brooks, his salary is pretty high on Fandall. He's I think 11-3. But like, do we ever get word on why he withdrew last week? I didn't know I looked for it today, but I didn't see anything. But like, I mean, talk about a pivot option. I mean, I mean, yeah, like, yeah, we're just going to when you get you get those at every single salary in a major, you don't really get that last week. We had a few standout plays in like the low 10,000 range. But I mean, this week it's you got to find reasons not to pick guys. Yeah, whereas some ways you have to find reasons to pick guys. So and that and that low 10,000 range is pretty juicy. It's pretty juicy. And I think there's a fall off after that. And that might influence how we view things for this week. In terms of roster construction and so much more breakdown our concrete thoughts and roster construction. We'll let you know golfers we are going to need salary tier breakdown the course and so much more in just one second. But first a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast we of course run up a podcast Spotify Stitcher Google podcast wherever you listen you can find us and while you're there if you like what you hear leave us a rating or view not just PGA but also MLB USC NASCAR podcast this time of year and a fell back in the fall. 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Let's break down the course now for this week's event it is Southern Hills Country Club 7556 yards in a par 70 yeah that's a lot 7556 a yardage in a par 70 there are 156 golfers in the field the top 70 plus ties make the cut of two rounds it's different cut rules for this week if the top 70 plus ties there is no secondary cut either it is top 70 plus ties no matter what for this week but it's also 156 golfers so it's a very difficult field to make the cut in given how large the field is given the quality you know we still like all the pomp and circumstance of a major where there are some guys there who not going to be factors towards the cut but like it's still it's not easy don't it's not easy Brandon look like the PGA professionals look I hope some of them make the cut but it's maybe more like a hundred and thirty hundred and forty golfers deep that's still a lot that's still have to feel again cut a lot and it's going to play tough so can't really you don't have a whole lot of room for error exactly and speaking of that room for error it's because of this course and it's a course that is hosted seven different majors but none since 2007 and it's undergone a renovation since then so we in theory kind of have data but we also don't for this course so Brandon I want to talk to you when you look at Southern Hills Country Club what do you see in the data how are you playing things from a DFS perspective for this week so I'm not factory in the 2007 PGA championship or the 2001 US Open because I think that this course has changed enough from the research I've done and by research I've done it's notes that I've read on other people's research I want to make that we'll make that clear I don't have boots on the ground you were not out there like sniffing the grass to see you know stuff like that I don't know why you sniff the grass it might be better but it's a good way to get kicked out or banned or get a restraining order or something I don't think my allergies would like that either but fair enough good point so you mentioned the length here it's about 330 yards longer than the average par 70 on the PGA tour but it is rating out pretty wide if you if you look at things from a fairway acres per yard standpoint which is a pretty good predictor of just how wide fairways are obviously 7.8 on that scale PGA average about 4.1 so hitting the fairways it's still going to matter because they're going to do what they can to grow the rough up but in Oklahoma you know mid-May it's probably not going to be too penal but what this sort of means is that driving accuracy is not a key stat for me this week doesn't mean we don't need some precision though because we have pretty small greens just over 5000 square feet on average it's about 85% of the PGA tour average usually around around 6000 square feet and those greens are bent grass so long course small greens what else kind of jumps out well again I'm not really factoring in the 2007 PGA or the 2001 US Open but winning scores there eight under four under respectively and I think it's going to play their their reasons to think it'll play tougher than that in 2022 even with the added distance with that redesign with Gil from Gil Hans in 2018 the sort of the key thing that sticks out to me is that Hans said quote you get anywhere near the edge and your ball is going to as ball your ball is going off instead of being funneled back on the green and quote so basically what they did was shave down the edges of the greens not a whole lot of rough around the greens so if you miss the greens which again pretty small they're falling off one way or the other rather than funneling down toward the pin so the number one thing for us each and every week is stroke scan approach that matters to me even more you got to be able to hit these small greens if you don't and even if you do but if you don't you got to have good wedge play so stroke scan around the green very key stat for me this week it usually isn't we're looking at saving par rather than pin hunting and making birdies so for me I'm looking at like irons wedges rather than driver putter this week that's going to be that's going to lead me to some a little bit of a different subset of golfers for the week but it's going to be tough you're going to want some distance off the team because it is it's a long course but you can't be spraying it with the irons and you got to be able to get up and down so sorry Victor Hovland I don't know I don't know if it's a Victor Hovland week I would love it if it is I went to college in Oklahoma State so I don't know how that's going to sort of cross but he maybe he maybe he never had maybe he just hits every green and doesn't have to chip but if he does could be problematic so I think the and it's going to sound really strange but I think the key differentiation for me this week is if you're bad around the greens you're probably just getting crossed off because I can go someplace else play like a JT or I can't lay who's good around the greens and get similar ball striking to someone like Victor Hovland so I think those are the key stats that's how I'm viewing it this week so that's the around the green play and that's actually pretty in line with how we view majors typically because of they're so tough where it's harder to do well if you have a hole in your game I want to ask you about the greens you've done a lot of research in putting length does that factor any look at the size of these green they're smaller greens you don't a lot of research in putt length is there any interplay there in terms of what that may mean in terms of the degree to which putting matters of the greens are smaller or no. I think though the only difference would be to have fewer longer like lag putts to start things off but what I what I typically do is cut out lag putting for the most part anyway yeah the pretty small portion of your putts. So I'm not really going to change things based on green sizes maybe if maybe if they're extra large greens I would actually factor in lag putting a little bit more but the way that I do things I found that putting within 15 feet. Is pretty predictive of your actual strokes in putting so just sort of reducing the number of putts from over 15 feet that is even available to these golfers plus. I haven't seen you know we'll find out what pin sheets look like but I'm sure they can still even with small greens tuck these pins and have some long putts anyway so that's not really going to factor in for me for this week. Okay so the key takeaway here is it's a very long course but it seems to matter a lot how well you do around the green in distance in terms of mostly avoiding calamity which is not something we typically look for but in the major it is and I think that's especially true for this week so let's move now and talk about what golfers have done at majors in the past we're going to keep this broad because obviously we don't have course data from Southern Hills we can't do course history we can't look at golfers and what they've done in majors and obviously we care more about current form because the form you're in right now is always going to be the most relevant but it also does matter if you can perform well in tough tough tough tough fields which is what we have here for this week so you looked at some golfers and looked at their overall performance history in majors what did you find who should we potentially be bumping up a bit based on how they do in spots like this yes I mean there's no really right way to do this if you want to look back at majors you have to figure out how far you're willing to look back but I just pulled majors since 2017 and looked and saw who's gaining the most strokes in these events and unsurprisingly Brooks Kepka is at the top he gains about 16 shots per event which is kind of while that's about three shots better than anyone else but Colin more call obviously a standout when it comes to major performance followed by Scottie Schaeffler makes sense before he won the Masters lots of good finishes for him at majors Dustin Johnson always seems to be a bit of a factor still with the majors and I think that he's someone who could go overlooked pretty easily this week John Rom again like this is kind of what you expect whenever you talk about who's the best at majors and then we get to Ricky Fowler whose salary is eighty seven hundred you know I don't know you mentioned you looked at Ricky a little bit and did not like what you saw and I saw his name on the sheet and I just looked out of curiosity I did not look into him let's be very clear about this I think they're the terminology here's important it will look looked into does not mean looked into in a positive sense necessarily I just want to be clear inspected but I mean you know the numbers are the numbers next up we have Rory Zander speed Hideki no surprises there Louis we stays in Tony Finaw your boy kind of another similar situation to Ricky any thoughts on Tony Finaw so like I looked at the distance of the course like okay cool like the typical checklist Tony Finaw we then you look in you're like oh our boy is not nuking anymore and that's kind of the whole reason you go to Tony Finaw is for the the bombs and they haven't really been there he's also not great around the green which is kind of concerning in general but also more specifically for this week so I looked into it I actually will say looked into it for this one couldn't convince myself though so and like again I looked I spent a lot of time trying to figure out the mid-range I couldn't talk myself into Finaw despite being in that range from an investigation perspective a lot yeah I mean I think I'm with you it's it's an interesting range think Louie's a really interesting name to don't know what his for like his health status is going to be but again I can keep running down more names but it's who you expect like that's the top 10 to 12 it's the top of the salary field I just I will say Justin Thomas is right below Tony Finaw and that might be an indictment on on on JT in majors depending on how you view it but he's been a lot better in majors than I think some people give him credit for so I just want to throw that out there and if we look just at PGA performance Matthew Wolf had a good PGA in his lone start in this sample Tiger again you got to have a lot of caveats there and then it's Brooks more Calla DJ Schaeffler and Francesca Molinari so like again you dig back five years you're going to see the Francesca Molinari Tiger Woods maybe toward the top of the field does that mean anything not necessarily yeah I want to ask you about the flip side of this there are some golfers I would say of interest who do not have great history at majors specifically like Sam Burns it's not a bad history to the very short history but not encouraging I would say he has been to six majors no finish to better than 29 it's the kind of Augusta that was his first time playing Augusta we talked about how Debbie Todd's tend to struggle there so I think that's pretty forgivable but that's you know that's nowhere to be Tiro Hatton has a pretty bad history in majors as well and Hatton is in that midrange $9900 and to me I actually did view that as being a bit of a drawback for Hatton because it's like he's been good for a very long time but even when he's been quote unquote on there haven't been like these huge showings in major he's had a couple of top 10s like it's not all bad but like it was underwhelming so how do you view guys we haven't really like popped I would say the flip side of this we haven't really shown out in this specific kind of format. Yeah it's always an interesting conversation with majors because they're not all the same and we have Augusta for the Masters and then everything else rotates in theory the PGA should be set up similar to past PGA is the U. S. Open in theory should be set up you know just to past U. S. Opens things like that but it's not always the case I think what this really does though is tells us who like who isn't who doesn't back down and like we don't talk about this kind of stuff because we're always looking at data but like who can put it together when a major is on the line facing tough fields facing very difficult conditions who can do it and who can do it consistently and again if you go back to the list of names I read off at the top of the segment it's almost all of the best golfers and that's why they separate from the rest so I do factor it in but at a certain point you can't say I need every one of my golfers to have flashed and have consistent success at majors because once you get out like below 10 5 or so you don't really have that unless you're digging back into golfers who maybe had major success 10 years ago 8 years ago and that's not very relevant for me so I'm not worried about Sam Burns to that degree maybe if it's you know someone's first second major or something like that sure a little bit different but sure for Burns I think he's seen enough and he's shown me enough to believe that he can kind of get this done in tougher events and I think Burns has also performed in high pressure situations we can define him or broadly in the sense that he's like he's one events where he's been like you know he's been being chased down on Sunday he needs actually converted and I think that that actually does matter for me too so I think it's worth looking into like on data golf when you click on like a player page you can see major performance history like all group together I think that's valuable info to have and I would look at it but don't go too far with you and well you talked about the pressure I mean data golf seems to have some answer for everything they have a pressure tool which shows that shows you know entering the third round or entering the final round like how often a golfer was expected to win entering man how how often he should have won based on how he played I'm really nervous to do you have this pulled up right now for Burns no for people in general does I have like a list or is it like you can look it's player by player but like so for Sam Burns he has the four wins he was expected to have 2.8 2 so he overperformed there but given how he played he was expected to have 2.14 so I it's just always fun to know like that maybe Sam Burns has a few more wins than he should that's not to say that that that's anything against Burns but not interesting to put that here and that's what it means just stones that's that's on me where is this thing by the way I want to look this up for people for future slander it's data golf dot com slash pressure dash tool I'll send you the link here okay I'm not going to do this right now but anyway I look into this yeah fun it's going to make me real sad later though when I look into like some of our favorites and then get sad so maybe I'll leave the sadness for later on yeah like with Mac Toma maybe a little luck for for him that it's not luck it's stones come on like that's just it's math it's basic math like if they lose its variance if they win its stones it's never good luck Brandon just remember that how dare you let's talk about current form go with this and golfers who are golfing well right now and I'm not really sure why Scotty Sheffler is in this section I feel we should quest I should have audited this before we dove in so convince me first of all Brandon that Sheffler is in good form because I am skeptical and then tell me what to do with Sheffler as the co favorite John wrong for this week yeah so Sheffler very interesting case think we just have to lead off with him this week go he had reeled off four wins and six starts including that for a lucid first win not only just the first win but then also the first major so like he's got some stuff you know checked off the list a T18 at the Zurich not the Zurich Jim come on with that T15 at the AT&T Byron Nelson in a tune up this past week in his beloved Texas now he did not put well I was tracking this pretty closely because Sheffler was like he wasn't in contention but he was looking pretty solid he ranked 69th among golfers who made the cut and strokes game putting but was eighth T-degree his T-degree game is just phenomenal right now and he just has no holes in his game is a good potter he should regress negatively or regress back toward his mean a little bit in terms of putting based on the data that I use but again no real holes and that's crucial for I think what this test is going to be this week also you'll probably hear that he won at this course in 2015 for the big 12 individual championship it's been redesigned since then so it's not something that is overly important but it's also not like this course is just completely unrecognizable at least I wouldn't think I mean like and then if you've seen any headlines he shot a 64 in a practice round recently his caddy was basically raving about him he played with Ryan Palmer and apparently Palmer was like two or three under and Sheffler basically ran laps around him so you know there's no disrespect to Ryan Palmer but they're going to be some tougher tests in this field than than just Ryan Palmer but I think that Scotty Sheffler is a standout cash gameplay. I don't know how popular he will end up being because we do have other big names. I don't know how everyone views Sheffler at this point. So what are your thoughts on Scotty. Well I got to find this big 12 championship now if I got to grind some film on on Scotty I found the press release before it but didn't have the results. So I was unsuccessful in my quick googling to try to find if there were any other fun people in this field. You can look at that but I think my question for you is like because like I can't nitpick Scotty Sheffler the results already cool. Okay. I can't like nitpick Scotty Sheffler but like it's all about how do I view them relative to like John Rom Rory JT because like I can't say anything negative about Scotty Sheffler even in a major like I can't so I want to ask you is Sheffler the A1 type guy for this week for you from a daily fantasy standpoint I think so even though I still have John Rom as more likely to win if I'm if I'm really digging in and kind of overthinking this Rom has more question marks with the around the green play. His putting is a little bit more suspect right now than what we see with Sheffler. So if I'm just picking one to anchor a cash game lineup it's going to be Sheffler. Okay. How far are you willing to pivot like I think that's the pivot set what I would say is the top four of Sheffler Rob McElroy Thomas. I would probably want to like if I'm saying okay X guy winds up being popular on Wednesday I need to pivot I'd be okay pivoting to any of those guys personally I think that they're all in that consideration set. I'm comfortable with them is there anyone between McElroy Thomas Rom and Sheffler you would not use as a pivot if you know one of them winds up being chalky Rory's lowest for me so he's going to be the most likely one that I wouldn't use. Why what tell me why tell me why tell me why. So he's got a really strange split with his putting where he's actually really good from within 5 feet and from 10 to 15 but really bad from 5 to 10. And I think that's going to be like a key party of range this week. So that's kind of partly it but again I got a ranks who would you rank last go ahead let's do this. I don't know if the question is would I play Rory. Yes if the question is who do I rank last to whom I least likely to pivot to it's Rory that's all. Okay let's say that like Rory let's say that the other three are tracking to be 25% on 25% of rosters which seems there. Rory's tracking to be 10 to incentivize that's yeah I mean that's a lot of leverage. Yeah is it enough though it's for you. Yeah okay so Rory Rory is number one I think that Rory like is either JT or Rory will be the guy this isn't you didn't ask me who's the like sharpest pivot. You asked me I asked you would be willing to pivot and you said meh not Rory and so I took that as slander. No I would play Rory I have no issues with that I'm least likely to play Rory of the three that me that be something on Rory I don't want to bet inverses one of these guys bet me on something I don't care what it is. How was that a thing how was that like just very upset. Okay so Rory Rory's top 10 odds are plus 190 that seems short I don't want to do there they're all short this week. I'll short every week that's how that's how these markets work Brandon. I've been thinking about this for a very long time. I'll figure something out we're going to have a Rory bet of some kind for right now though let's talk about Jordan speed speed trending up again. He has a win and a runner up in his past two events regular events I should say it's led to some reduced betting odds and increase attention here on speed at $11,000 the key thing carrying speed for both those many this is interesting is his irons he gained 6.3 and 4.8 on approach and that comes after he gained 6.2 at the Valero it's pushed beat up to 55th and approach to past 50 rounds that may sound bad but from where speed was previously it's a pretty big increase speed has also been driving well and the course should suit him because you know the distance course so accuracy issues may not matter as much so I think there are two things that are true this week. I think that a speed surge is legitimate and I'm not questioning that but be he's probably going to catch a ton of steam because it's Jordan speed on a heater entering a major at a very good salary. I think I'm going to assume speed is going to be popular so let's make that assumption if we assume speed is popular what you're doing with him at 11,000 I will leave him off of my family lineups and be okay if he does win the PGA and complete his career grand slam but boy you don't really think about ever saying these words but Jordan speed spotters kind of bad right now it's it's a problem over me see here what I have this set to from from data golf's true strokes game query over the past 50 rounds I have this is a let me refresh your this is still set to the current PGA. All right I'm vamping he's 22nd 22nd in a true stroke scheme Tee to green over the past 50 rounds 104th in this field and putting his splits from within five feet are awful he showed us that not toward the end of the buyer Nelson missed the makeable shorty his putting from within 15 feet not particularly good. It sounds weird but like that's enough for me to go away from speed of it even though putting is not a super crucial stat for me this week because you need to Tee to green the just putting well not really going to be enough but he's going to have to make some of those pots wouldn't the counterpoint be that we know that in the long term Jordan speed is a an S tier putter and you would think that he might regress in that or progress is he I don't know is he though that's kind of the thing like Jordan speed is a great lag putter best on tour if I'm not looking at stat I don't know the stats would say but he puts it to within like three feet from anywhere not everyone can do that but the putting that actually is most predictive it's where he struggles if you look back at his career his best years putting are whenever he's actually good from within 10 feet he's not good from that range right now he's focusing on a swing he's got that backswing the the I'm just are you gonna try to illustrate this again with your hands we didn't know last time. No, no because I went the wrong way. Yeah, I know the tape don't lie ball don't lie. But now the pre shot routine it's clear that he's working on a ball striking and he's phenomenal with the irons right now but just give me give me can't land said so can't lay over speed without considering roster rate. Yeah, what about Xander versus beef about considering roster rate very close. If I'm playing a cash game it's going to be Xander if I'm playing a tournament I would be okay taking the upside the speed. Okay. Hideki I think it's Hideki. Yeah. That's more so because I like Hideki than than disliking speed for me. Yeah, I'm nitpicking speed here because I have to if I say like I can overlook that then then I still got to narrow it down from there and you know I understand anyone who's really I think it would be moved because I think he's going to be very popular so I don't think you have to worry about it right but like why would I like Hideki and not speed well I trust Hideki's long term T to green performance more than speeds and if they're both not putting well like give me the better ball striker and at its peak long term that's still Hideki. Yeah and with Hideki like we talked about around the green play I think that sometimes around the green play gets lumped in with putting as like short game overall but he's actually good around the green. Yeah. So don't panel don't penalize him improperly for his bad putting don't double penalize him for that. So talking about Shane Lowry. He is within that pivot zone of speed because speed is 11,000 Shane Lowry is 10 seven Lowry has shown the stones previously winning a major. He's trending back up or at least has been recently. He's 10 seven what do you say with rat Lowry right now. Yeah former major winner with that 2019 open championship and I think this week should play kind of roughly like a like an open where you got to hit your irons and your wedges well like get up and down with me windy as but and that might be an overlap as well and you're going to get like balls rolling off of greens like you know it's going to be an ugly test of golf and I think that that's something that puts me on Shane Lowry but we've seen him finish well recently third at the Masters and the RBC Heritage. He's got five top 15s in his past six individual starts and all in the five stroke play events top 15 and all of those data golf ranks Lowry over his past over everyone's past 20 rounds second and true strokes gained trailing only Scotty Schaeffler. They have Schaeffler to plus 3.26 which is crazy, but Lowry is it a plus 2.89 and then up third is your boy Rory McElroy to 2.37. So like Lowry has been phenomenal lately on his salary is reasonable. It's not low 10,000 but if you want to kind of fade the top say we're going to get a you know a little bit of an unorthodox winner like a a decky a Zander a Lowry and you go a little bit more balanced like you can load up on a pretty strong lineup within this range and for me Lowry is a key part of that. So if you go Zander a decky Lowry your average left is $92 and then let's go Karen young. He's 82 your back is 97 that's a stupid lineup. I think that my takeaway because I like Lowry to I should make that clear. I like Lowry a lot the more so like I was talking about with digging into Finaw and Fowler those not good the more I dig into Lowry the more I think I got to use him but I also think that about Zander I think that about Hideki and that to me says I think it to an extent is Zalatoris I'm frightened to death of the putter we talked about the putter being an issue last week and it was but I think he's still kind of like in that realm. So I think that my takeaway is I want one of those golfers in this this high 10,000 range in and I'm not using the word literally incorrect here. I want one of them in literally every lineup because doing so allows me to increase my exposure to this range and I want to make sure I have high exposure to this range in general like that's like a NASCAR thing we're like, okay, I need to identify the proper lap leaders. Let me just have a very top-heavy line to give myself more darts. I want more darts and I think that that means being in this range a lot whatever the route may be getting there. I think that's my takeaway here because Lowry is great like Xander like Hideki like Zalatoris to a lesser extent, but like I think this range is really really really good even for a field that's loaded with good ranges. Yeah, and as much as we can talk Cameron Young is the exception here but you're we're not going to I can feel pretty confident with any major and say we're not going to get a long shot winner. Um, good. How do you define long shot like 80 or a hundred to one plus Taylor Gouge is a hundred to one guaranteed winner. Good thumb. And again, you don't if you have if you take the savings on a value play and he finishes top 15 and so that you can roster Scottie Scheffler and he wins like that's a tradeoff that works out but saying if you're assuming that one of the top whatever like the the tier A of you know in the betting market those guys don't win and if that's sort of second tier you can really go balanced and that's going to be sort of a personal preference in a lineup to lineup preference because you can go both ways but maybe really think through your lineups and make sure you're not targeting lineups that don't really correlate very well. I will say to you can also be in this range twice even if you use a Scheffler Rom Rory or JT it does make things a little bit top heavy because you're down below 9000 for your average per golfer but I'll do that in some builds because I think that is worth it for this week. I don't mind the 8000 range too much and there's a minimum salary golfer that I can touch on later but who is it? Um, Oliver Becker. Oh, B E K K E R. Okay, I found him. Oh, I okay, I see the data golf stuff now. There we go. Yeah. Okay, we'll talk about him. We'll talk about him later on for now. Let's talk about Keegan Bradley. It's time Brandon. It is time. We've come full circle on the heat check Keegan back on the menu. We know Keegan's issues there. They're very real but he's overcoming those issues right now and churning out some really good finishes. Keegan has finished top 10 in four of his past six events. That includes a fifth at the players but he's also been top 10. He's just past three Keegan's getting there in a variety of fashions at the Wells Fargo Keegan MF and Bradley gained almost 10 strokes putting very sustainable very real but if you are skeptical for some reason of Keegan being a great putter he did gain for an approach at the Valero and at the players. He gained 4.5 plus off the tee at the players and the Wells Fargo and the around the green play for Keegan has been really steady recently. Finally, Ben grass is Keegan's best service by a pretty surface by a pretty wide margin. So Keegan is one of those guys whose major history is pure trash recently. He's missed the cut at five of the past six majors. He's played. He was 17 last year at the PGA championship, but it seems like the golf for Keegan is trending back up. So are you buying into this search for Keegan Bradley at $9,200? I don't mind it. The expected putting data that I use has him as a basically a zero in terms of expected putting. I will take it all day. Yeah. That could honestly be enough if the tee to green game is as good as it can be. If there is a chance of a little bit of a I will caught a spike and a little bit of a bump from a one week sample for for Keegan with a putter like that definitely works. Is he my favorite value play? No. Do I think I'll be in this range a lot? Maybe depends on how how far down into the 8,000 range I'm willing to go, but Keegan's a lot more on the radar than he was a few weeks ago. I firmly agree and I think that he will be in my rotation for sure down there. I think I'm on board with you where I'm not convinced he'll be like my focal point down there, but I'll be there for sure. So let's talk about Matt Kutcher. He's $8,600. We're looking for some guys to help us jam in more studs. Kutcher is 86. The form has been rounding up. He's not a course fit. I don't think maybe you can talk me into him being one, but what do you see with Kutcher at 86? So yeah, usually we talk about guys with recent form that we like and use that as a as an excuse to justify playing them. Sometimes we talk about golfers who might be doing well, but we're not necessarily convinced. This is a little bit more of the latter for me. I have mentioned Kutcher a few times in recent form lately, and he just finished 12th at the AT&T Byron Nelson. He ranked 17th in stroke skiing T-degree among the cutmakers. He now has four top 20 results in his past five starts and is coming in at that value salary of $8,600, but I don't love the course fit for him. It's long and it's going to be demanding. I don't know that he has the game for modern majors and he's actually missed seven straight major cuts. So for me, this is a little bit more of a cautionary tale of just because you see some good finishes next to Kutcher's name. You know the name, Matt Kutcher. It's a good salary. Like I don't, I'm not going to get there. I think that there's more upside and that there's not as much safety with Kutcher as it might feel like. So this is again, one of those cautionary situations where I'm not in on Kutcher and I'm kind of just pointing out that there's more to recent form than just finishing positions. So if Fandall sportsbook, if I called John Sheeran right now, it's not going to be very busy. If I were to call him up right now and be like, Hey, offer me a betting market on the odds of Matt Kutcher gain strokes off the tee. Where would you set that line? I don't know. That's too hard to answer on the fly. Plus, I can't do math in my head. I think it'd be like plus 450 odds that he gain strokes off the tee. And that's like, I mean, I could look up. Well, I actually have those numbers, but I should probably start. I mean, I can see what he's done recently in this, but this isn't like bad events, but I'm also like frightened of like hanging a bad number and getting hammered at the book of gym. So oh wait. Okay. So fantasy national has percentage of rounds with strokes gained in a certain category. He's gained off the tee in 46% of his past 50 rounds. Okay. I don't think it's going to happen this week. I know that this is entirely hypocritical because I'm going to talk about Taylor Gooch later on and Gooch is like also probably not going to gain off the tee, but he's not going to gain in a different way because he actually like, he has some distance. Gooch does. And so like, I feel like the odds that he gains are higher than cooters and like the rest of his game is pretty good. And I can't like justify using a spot on the guy who I know is going to lose in that category like that makes it tough for me. So you mentioned you like the 8000 range. I do too. I actually think it's a pretty good one for this week. Kutcher will not be part of that list. One guy who will though is Cameron Young. Let's talk about him. He's $8,200 very under salary and young is two key things going for him right now. He is super long off the tee and he is converting beyond just the driver and that makes him super interesting here at a very low salary. Young is finished top three Nietzsche's past two events. He was runner up at the Wells Fargo third at the RBC heritage. A lot of that is due to the driving, but he's also getting at least 2.5 an approach in five of his past eight events and the eight measured events should say in that eight event stretch. His only two finishes worse at 26 were both miscuts the issues that the two miscuts were against tough fields the players and the masters and this is obviously a very tough field to but I'm still really intrigued by young who is young. He's 25 so we talk about how it's easier to buy into gains and golfers when they're younger. Young is young. So he's 82. I'm in Brandon. Where are you adding Cameron young this week? Um, I love him. He won't be alone in that but at the salary. I think it's still worth it. And while you know anyone listening you're listening to the heat check PG championship podcast you're going to buy number five. You're going to know a thing or two about Cameron young by now but if we're being realistic Cameron young is not going to be in top three and in roster rate this week. He'll be a little bit hope will be substantially more popular than other value plays but he's also pretty drastically under salaried. He should probably be closer to like 92 than 82. So I don't have any issues with that. And if you want distance he has it. Speaking of that distance number that you were talking about with Gooch like I don't I don't talk about this because really complicated to like use these numbers but I use these scores for all of my stats. I just cite percentile ranks because it's very easy to discuss but Cameron young's is the score in distance which is a standard deviation above average in this field. He's a 2.24 which ranks him sixth in the field. Taylor Gooch is a point one nine. So he might tell you to my rank not that great but he's still a plus and then Kutcher. Let me scroll the whole way to the bottom here. He's a minus one point eight seven. So like with distance in particular I think that rankings can be misleading because you'll rank 70th in distance but you might be 50th is minimal. Yeah. So like you know again it's hard to discuss these scores in like a very natural way. But yeah Cameron young dominates there. You can put it well Cameron young. No, no, no I'm saying if I used it like all the time like oh yeah Cameron young's 2.2 in distance and Taylor Gooch is a point one nine. I think our listeners might actually be okay with that. I have a lot of true. No, no, our yeah our listeners. Yeah. For sure. Exactly. We're not trying to broaden the scope. I'm sure podcast. We don't want more listeners like we like our people we got you know. Honestly surprised people listen to this. But yeah. Well it happens. We can put a came on problem. I'm not going to put you on the spot. I'm guessing you don't have this in front of you. But like if you think back to that the masters were off a cabrera bio was like either minimum or seventy seven hundred dollars. His roster rate did not exceed 20% I don't think correct. That was it was about like 18 to 20 I think correct. And like young's not going to be that high. I think max 15 right. 15 probably somewhere around that's fine. I can do that like I have no objections that when a guy is under salaried sometimes chalk is chalk for a reason I'll pivot elsewhere where I have like legitimate alternatives in that range. I don't think I have like I have some alternatives but like not like I want to be different without being dumb and I think ignoring Cameron young is dumb based on everything we've got right now. Ignoring him entirely is pretty silly. I have him and I use this isn't just how I ranked golfers and leave it at that. But in my stats only model he's 15 in this field. Yeah. Yeah, I like it. Okay, let's take a look at what the bookmakers are saying for this week. We got John Rahman, Scottie Shetler at the top. They are co-favorites at Fando Sportsbook. They are both 12 to one Roy McElroy who Brandon hates is 15 to one with Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas is 16 to one. Colin Mora Kawabunga is 18 to one Patrick Cantland Dustin Johnson 19 to one. Can Smith is 20 to one. We have not said his name yet. That's weird. Anyway, we jump down to Victor Hovland who's 24 to one is Andrew Schauffer 26 to one Shane Lowry 29 to one Hedecki Matsuyama and was our tourist 30 to one Joaquin Neiman rounds at the top group. He is 31 to one. So let's have that roster construction discussion now we talked in passing about how at least I want to be in that that second tier a lot that high 10,000 range a lot. When you are building a quote unquote default build for a tournament this week, Brandon, how are you doing so? Probably like a modified balance where I have two golfers and like the 8,000 range and then I just try to go for winners from there. So I think I'm going to be a little bit scarce on the 9,000 range overall embrace a little bit more volatility with the 8,000 range because it's going to be tough to make the cut anyway. And I thought to say that all the golfers in the 8,000 range have the same cut odds as the golfers in the 9,000 range, but there is a drop off to me into this field and it probably exists somewhere around maybe 10 to with Neiman. Yes, exactly where I put it. I want to put like Max Homa and Corey Connors in that, but those two guys specifically have a little bit more question marks than a Neiman. So, you know, Abe answer Tommy Fleetwood. These guys aren't doing enough for me to roster them over like maybe like a Russell Henley. So, yep. And I think that exactly where you put it is where I put it with Neiman because Burns is 10-4 very okay with him. Neiman's 10-2 after Neiman. Sung Jae-in not sure if he'll be able to make it. Sounds like, yeah, he was okay. So, yeah, he's officially out now. Tiger at 10,000. I'm not personally like I'll root for it, but I'm not going to use him. I don't think actually are using Tiger this week. I should ask. No, reports are that he looks stronger. Reports are also from a certain Twitter account that may or may not be associated with Patrick Reed is that he's getting inside information and then it's a sham. But Patrick Reed also. Wait, wait, what? Can you explain the backstory on that last? I know the burner account thing. Use golf facts. Yeah, yeah, but what is golf facts was not particularly happy that Tiger was getting some practice rounds in at Southern Hills. But Patrick Reed did get some practice rounds in at Southern Hills according to other reports. So I'm just, I'm just saying I'm just reporting. Again, my boots weren't on the ground. It's reporting what I've I feel like next that we have to pay for you to go there specifically to sniff the grass and tell us, you know, since the grass sounds like a euphemism, by the way, I should probably stop saying that specific phrase. But like, we're going to send you there to give us direct reports on whether Patrick Reed is toggling between Twitter accounts on his phone. And if what Tiger looks like in his practice rounds, I need this content. So just let me wait till a few more years till the PGA is it around a minx I don't have to go as far. Where is that? It's like Philly basically. That's still a long ways. That's across state. And so it's a big stage. Yeah, it's a big state. I can boil well aware and very disgruntled at how big Pennsylvania is. Yeah, I think I think there's a big drop off after Neiman, which is why I would say my. So I talked about how I want one golfer in that high 10,000 range. I want three of Neiman or higher in every lineup. Yeah, I think that's what I would say as well. Are you okay with that parameter? Yeah, that sounds about right. I mean, we have came young. There's not like a free space because that definitely doesn't exist in this volatile week. But this Sebastian Munoz, Alex Dorn, we got some names down in the 8,000 range that I think, you know, can do some damage. So I forgot to have you victory lap about Munoz. I know he didn't win, but like he gulfed really well. I should have had to do that. Sorry about that. You know, first round winner that counts, right? Yeah, yeah. Brian was on him last week. He was a player pick. Hashtag follow Brandon Godula that wouldn't actually work as a hashtag, but let's disregard that anyway. Which golfers odds have shifted most notably the past couple of days? All right. So we'll start with the shortening odds. This is basically over the weekend and then into Monday afternoon, but Jordan Spieth unsurprisingly 22 to 16 at Fandle Sportsbook. Patrick Canley, 22 to 19. Love Canley this week. Xander love just love him all the time except last week, but he actually had a great Sunday 61, I think. So he went from 29 to 26. Jane Lowry love them this week. So all the guys I like this week going, you know, shortening 33 to 29 had Deckey 33 to 30. Joaquin Neiman 42 to 31. Love that for Neiman. Max Homa, Tony Finau 65 to 50. Jason Day 65 to 55. Your boy Keegan Bradley 90 to 65 and then Billy Horschel 120 to 80. I like think that's he check money coming in on Keegan, you know, I can lie to myself and say that that's what what's happening. Does it worry you at all the people we're on or all the ones who are getting attention from people who are investing money in the market? Um, I mean, it's also it's reassuring. Yeah. Always and it's only whenever we see like overly substantial popularity projections that we need to worry and we almost never get that. And we can't get better than everyone. So I think that's okay. Um, which golfers have lengthened in this time? Scotty Schaeffler, uh, was 10 or I guess 11. I know for sure. I don't think I should call John Sheeran to make sure he's okay begging for action on Scotty Schaeffler. It seems seems what he I know he was 11. I don't know if he was ever 10, but he was 11 at least and moved to 12. He was 10 when I pulled. Okay, Friday. Okay. Yeah. Uh, calling more Cala 16 to 18. I think he's fascinating this week because I'm worried about the wedge play. Um, just kind of if I'm nitpicking also not really a bomber so that could be not a like a that's a nitpick thing more so than it's like a disqualification thing like the around the green play is. Yeah. Um, Victor Hovland or sorry, DJ 16 to 19. Victor Hovland 22 to 24 Brooks Capca 29 to 42. So that's noteworthy and then Bryson the Shambo is in the field, um, posting some ridiculous, uh, I guess I shouldn't say track man because I think he's like some force. So I don't know what his, uh, monitor is of choice, which I'm sure makes them happy that I don't know that, but, uh, Bryson from 65 to 95. He was wailing on driver and some videos that I saw. Um, you know, I need to see a little bit more than that, but I mean, I guess you could do worse than like throwing like a dollar or two on Bryson. See what happens there, but I'm good. Um, he also doesn't have the wedge play necessarily anyway. So did Brooks withdraw to dye his hair back? Cause if he did that, I could buy into that. I'm, I'm, I'm fully in on heritives now, which is just a hair narrative, uh, Alex Alban dyed his hair red. Uh, in formula one NASCAR thing. No, it's formula one. Oh, it's kidding. The heritive, uh, he's going to raise our things. Yeah. And he's finished top 10, like each of the past few races like with a poop car. So I'm thinking to heritives if Brooks dyed his hair to be whatever that atrocity was previous and not be whatever it was treat previously, I could be more into him then I will not be on Bryson. Um, but like I could be more into Brooks if he's dying his hair. Also, people are fading the DJ wedding narrative, which seems like we got the heritive. We got the narrative of the heritive and the wedding narrative paired. They deal to stack these DJ Brooks all in. Well, then how do we handle Victor hoblin? Like going to Oklahoma state narrative. I mean, am I using Ricky too? Not really. I was going to say Ricky. I don't want to use Ricky. Can I use? I'll use Ricky in a Sunday only lineup where the Oklahoma state orange or burnt orange, whatever. Um, when he's wearing that color in the same state, I think um, geography, um, maybe I'll do it then. So like a Sunday only lineup, you can stack hoblin and Ricky, but like not for a full full event. Taylor Gooch, another Oklahoma state guy. Oh, no one wolf. Hmm. You can have a Mr. whole, uh, Oklahoma state food, baby, Ricky. Honestly. Offland. You could do it. I said, no, right? Yeah, no, I'm I've got four. I need two more. Do you get well? Oh, fine. I've got five. We'll figure this out the rest later. Uh, which lower salary golfers have odd standout to you? Um, well, the big one is Cameron young at 65 to one. He's 8,200. Um, and we got a slew at a hundred to one with Davis Riley, Alex, Nourin, shameless power Cameron champ, Russell Henley, Gary Woodland, Sergio Garcia, Justin Rose. I like Henley there. I like power. I like Nourin. I could see the case for cam champ. Some people are kind of expecting us to play a little bit like Augusta, which I could kind of see distance, maybe not the most penal rough. Um, bentgrass greens, you know, Cam champ does fantastically well at Augusta. Really good putter from within 15 feet as well. And then at 120 to one, we have K.H. Lee back to back 18 T Byron Nelson winner. Impossible not to root for K.H. Lee, um, Sebastian Munoz, Eric Van Roin, Christian Bizadenhout, Ricky Fowler, Harold Warner, the third and Maverick McNeely, your boy McNeely. Those guys are all 120 to one. Is it a Mav week or no? Um, honestly, that might be one where I need to look like more at his major history. Like at a certain point it matters. Like I'm just splitting hairs a little bit. No, missed all four cuts at majors. Yeah, but I mean he's 26. Yeah. Cut him some slack, Jim. Gosh, uh, also he's not in the field, but Charles howl the third an OSU alum. I'm saying OSU intentionally to make the Ohio State people mad, although it'd be T OSU because of the Ohio State, I guess. So maybe I don't even care. Anyway, um, there's a person named ab justice, which sounds like Donald max ab justice. I want to know more about this guy. He died in 2013. So I can't find out too much more, but I want to find out who this guy is. So the Oklahoma State stack lineup is, is short. Um, but I think you can make that work either way. Okay, weather for this week sucks. There's a lot of wind, wind speeds on Thursday. We'll start off around 12 miles per hour. They will steadily rise during the day and peak at around 19 miles per hour. They're going to sit there from one p.m. until the end of the round. So from, you know, whatever time the first tea time is until one, you'll get a little bit less wind from one p.m. On, it's going to be bad on Friday. We get the reverse where wind speeds will start around 19 miles per hour, then tail off in the late afternoon. The problem is going to tail off really, really late. So it'll be like kind of at the end of each guy's round that late wave might not get much of a break, but it could be a tiny bit. So I think if you're going to bump up anybody, bump up those team off early Thursday because they will play in lower aggregate wind speeds. But more importantly, I'm not opposed to considering wind splits. You said looking at like Shane Lowry because like it may play a bit like an open championship. It might be because of wind, honestly, in part. So I actually think wind splits are in play. They're on the table for this week and then bumping up guys with earlier tea times on Thursday. Wind does carry into the weekend. So wind will be a factor for sure this week. I'm not thinking like the players type stuff, but it will be a factor for sure. And I would at least be open to considering it here. Let's dive in now to our go ahead. But like Lowry is not actually that good in the wind. He's all right. He won the open. Therefore, that's that's like the yeah, but it's one of those like I don't care. There is no way in the way. Like dinner burger. Okay. I like burns and nemen more. Yeah. I mean, I think burger. Is is win odds make him a better bet than a Fandall play? Yeah, I think that makes sense. Okay, let's go tier by tier. Now break down our top options for the PGA championship over on Fandall Brandon in the upper tier. Where are you going for this week? I got nothing against Schaeffler or Rom. If I'm picking one, I'm probably going Schaeffler, but my favorite tournament play at the top is going to be Justin Thomas. I think people are annoyed with him in majors, which I kind of get, but it's a little bit overstated as well. And he does have a major win in his career. And if you look at spike weeks in T degree in play when adjusted for field strength, which I do now, he has gained an 80th percentile mark in almost 70% of his events over the past year. It's easily the best number in the field. If you account for putting give it some weight about 70, 30 or exactly 70, 30 in my spreadsheet, he is trailing only and this will trigger Jim. Trails only Rory and that's that in my adjusted spike week stats. So, hey, what are you going to do? I'm going to use Rory. And even if you remove the off the T numbers from JT, he is 90th, 96 percentile in adjusted strokes fairway through green that includes putting. So if you're looking for irons and wedges, which I am, I don't know how you go against JT this week. You wouldn't go against JT. You would just go for Rory or for Sheffler in a particular lineup. But boy, I got nothing against JT this week. And he's going to be my main win pick for this week. Do I just have to use Rory every lineup now? Like I have a defiance. You can. I think I will. I would say for a cash game. I agree that you had to go Sheffler. Just there's no reason not to at this point. But oh, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, JT now leads after last week in my spike weeks that. Where's Rory? Third. What? Who passed him besides JT? Rom is back in there with updated data. Boo. Okay. Let's talk about Rory. We talked about him a lot going to the Masters. He finished second there. So obviously very good. And I've seen nothing to convince me. I should back off now. And the key thing about Rory is we had talked about how he was doing well in everywhere except his approach. And if he could get the irons back, he'd be back to like peak Rory. He gained 4.7 on approach at the Wells Fargo. The one event he has played since the Masters. That is his best market approach since the WGC St. Jude in August. Now that's a negative because the other guys are getting more than 4.7. So keep that in mind. But the short game has stayed good. That's a key for Rory. He can launch it off the tee. He ranks third in distance gained the past 50 rounds. So if Rory puts everything together, his upside is just as high as everybody else in the field. Mentioned the the chipping is pretty good for Rory. It is better than or at least currently better than what Ron's been doing recently. It's been kind of his one like key downside. So I'm going to use Rory in tournaments. If I get the read that Rory will be more popular than I assume he's going to be, then someone else won't be and I'll be okay pivoting them. I would say the top four to me all in play as pivots, but I just assume Rory will not be very popular and I'm okay writing him for sure. Have you walked back your Rory hatred yet? It's never been hatred and just happened to rank him fourth out of phenomenal and would you have not ranked someone fourth yet in that group by the way? Let's move on to our other high salary guys. Who else do you like up here? I could go can't lay or Sam Burns. What do you think? I'll talk can't like the option to put burns in the mid range because I'm so I'm using neem in there. So if you want to talk burns in the mid range, I'll allow it because of the way the rosters are being built this week. I actually have them in the mid range in my helper on number fire. So that works anyway, but I'll talk can't I didn't read your helper by the way yet. So this is just us being on the same page as we always are yeah. So for me can't lays probably someone who will get a little bit overlooked. We have speed stealing headlines needs that PGA to get the grand slam but go ahead and point me to something that Patrick can't lay does poorly. You can't do it. He has major ready statistics in every single category 97th percentile bentgrass putter 99th percentile golfer in adjusted strokes gain fairway through green. It's a great scrambler gets out of trouble saves par 17 of 20 made cuts in majors with eight top 25s like it's kind of a no brainer play very safe not going to blow anyone away by picking Patrick can't lay but I think he's a great play this week. So I like can't lay to my question for you is do you worry about the lack of upside he's had in majors because he can't lay has been like in amazing form for a pretty long time now and I've used him a lot in majors but he's not finished better than 15th since the 2019 PGA championship. So in two top 10s in his life in a major does that worry you at all or no. No that's basically only a thing until it's not like one of those he's not been bad at majors eight top 25s. If you look at the spike week numbers he's actually a lot better than you would think if you look at round to round variants he's a lot better than you would think and I don't want to miss quote. I know what my data says but this one's something that everyone can look at over the past 12 months. Can't lay still ranked second in data golf true strokes gained like. It's really wrong not shuffler because again if you use long term form it's still wrong can't lay and then the rest of the field. There's no one can't lay at 11 to not not at all. I agree the I just want to ask the question because I thought that's a fair question but no I agree with you one guy who's major history I would not question is under shuffling he's actually been very much as you have he was one I was scared to look up on your pressure thing over on data golf I'm going to leave that for a darker time but it feels like Xander fatigue is kind of there kind of similar to what you were discussing with can't lay which may allow him to go over looked here at 10 9 especially because he is $100 lower than speed and speed is probably going to get a lot of steam. We won't well rounded golfers this week and Xander has always been that despite a bit of a lull he had at one point he's still 11th from the approach to past 50 rounds. He's also a very good Ben crafts putter. His former's come around the past couple weeks he and can't lay team that the Zerk they have top five at the Byron Nelson as well. Xander gets me access to a guy winning upside. I think you can argue if you want Brandon the the big Xander hater at 10 9 and that's what I need in a major so all the guys in that tier it's a very good tier I would probably go Xander one. It would be a hard thought through scenario though with him versus a decky and a decky be the other guy consider pretty strongly for the top spot in that range how would you who would you put top to from let's say can't lay through Zalatoris. Okay can't lay through Zalatoris top two. Yeah. Can't lay Xander but Laura is right right below that you put Larry above the decky. I think so you want to bet. No why because it's very close rude. Okay let's drop down to the mid range who do you have there also Xander should have given how he played 5.06 wins during his stretch of five wins so. Okay yeah. Also Scottie Sheffler should have 2.98 has more than that so stones. Scotty stones. Okay so I'm going I'm pivoting to Burns here perfect love it. Should I yeah yeah. I mean I had Max Homa is it home has got his own major issues he's got to work through but for me Sam Burns does everything he's feels ready to win a major and it feels more like a matter of when not if and I'm not really saying that he's going to win this week but he's got the game for it. 85th percentile driving distance 90th percentile adjusted approach play 83rd percentile adjusted wedge play is actually a really really good putter 83rd percentile and expected putting. There's nothing he doesn't do. Not a whole lot of major history that's the biggest knock but the salary of 10 for I think will probably cause him to be a little bit overlooked because we have some other names there. And I think that. Roses any chalky so this is an unsan Burns I heard the bark so she's an unsan Burns I am as well. I like Burns I like this range is why walking Neiman is my top mid salary guy Neiman is 10 to and I think that's where the drop off is and I'm always a fan of getting the lowest salary guy in a tier and to me Neiman is he's not on Burns level I definitely prefer Burns but he's at least in the same tierish as him is what I would say Neiman ranks 36th and distance game the past 50 rounds he is 17th around the green 50th and bank grass putting so forget everything we knew about old walking Neiman like 3-4 years ago. It's just a different guy right now the difference is he's lagging approach but Neiman has still shown upside there in 2022 he won the Genesis based on good approach play finished 6th at the farmers so I think Neiman is very worthy at 10 to and I think the drop off occurs after him you mentioned potentially not being in the 9000 range that much I'm fully on board with that approach and would like to approach things that way just because I think there's a big drop off here and upper 9000 range it's a very good range because it's a major but if I were to deem like a quote-unquote weak range again accounting for the fact that it's a major I think that's probably the one I would point to first. Yeah and speaking of of just where I am with Neiman I built a lineup with no golfers in the 9000 range for my first 5 so overlooking that entire 9000 range I have 10 5 left which could get me Daniel burger Matt Fitzpatrick or Neiman or Tiger Patton whatever it's going to be Neiman and I'll just eat the 300 I think I like Daniel burgers a win bet but I would rather just bet him at longer odds and to clarify that's because you had Sam Burns already in that line because he would be in that range as well I wanted to note that thank you I got it but yeah okay who else do you like in the mid-range I'm going down to Taylor Gooch but I think you have him as well right I didn't realize that you had him as a player pick when I was talking about him before but I'm very excited about this so let's talk about Taylor Gooch I'm just a good all around game 93 percentile and adjusted strokes fairway through green he's not a short he's not short off the T I have him 66 percentile but again a plus and if you look at it from a Z Z square perspective pretty average putting got a pretty good spike week number in T to green play made four or five cuts in majors T 14 at the Masters not a name that's going to catch a lot of buzz because the major and like Taylor Gooch but he's a heat check favorite for a reason yeah and I think that was it him last week I said it was like a mini speed like speed light I can't remember anyway he does a lot of things that speed does or typically does well but like is very low salary and obviously speed finish like second or whatever last week and Gooch this the cut so that that comparison did not work you said like Nelson light yeah speed flight very light but I think with Gooch like like you said his issues off the team mostly come from accuracy he's actually okay from a distance perspective and if fairways are wider this week and potentially less penal I think that's a great thing for Taylor Gooch because 26 and approach past 60 rounds fourth around the green above average bank grass putter like you said 14th at the Masters that was good putting but I like the ability to get good putting and it shows you can hang in a tough field when conditions are good enough here and I think that I'm in on him enough to be okay with him at 95 if you were to list other guys in the low 9000 range you like I think Keegan's in that in that consideration for me maybe Adam Scott who else would you look at down there low 9000 specifically yeah going from the bottom up Billy Horschel is fine he's going to have some distance issues but he plays better at tougher events and he's been very vocal about preferring setups like this I don't think there's anyone okay so basically what the takeaway is we don't like this tier avoid it if you can correct so we have I mean I could see the case for Jason Day if he finishes the event I'm not there with Webb Scott I guess I'm always in and out of Scott to some degree but Patrick Reed I guess Keegan would be third so I would go Gooch Horschel Keegan okay I guess I'm out on coke rack and search yeah though I think the reason I was in on Scott is because we just watched Severance which includes Ben Wyatt or whatever his name is the Parks and Rec guy other Adam Scott bizarre world Adam Scott I know that's not the other Adam Scott for most people but he is for us here on the heat check maybe Severance has gotten me to like Adam Scott for the PGA Championship who can say value range who are you turning to there I'll give you the lead on Cameron Young because I took the lead on Peter Gooch and there we overlapped there yeah so I think that like we're talking a lot about avoiding guys who will be chalky you just don't see that happen with value plays very often they're not chalky to the extent where you have to avoid them that happens more so with the studs because people filling out lineups on their phone while they're in line at the you know the grocery store which I've done they're probably not going to Cameron Young and I think that's going to suppress his roster rates and that's a good thing he can launch it off the tee he's had a good approach play recently he's had the spike weeks of the approach recently he's never made the cut in a major in three tries but it seems like he's on a new level right now and his most recent attempt was his Augusta debut so I will happily be high in him at 82 any final thoughts for you on Cameron Young I think we covered is that he's devalued play of the week okay who else do you like for a value play for this week so Augusta Bastian Munoz at 8000 he you know probably deserves to be a little higher salaried than he is but that's could be a little bit of an overreaction to the last week but very balanced golfer above the median and all three adjusted T degree in stats 72 percentile and overall adjusted T degree in over the past year with my adjustments factored in can go low but it's not really going to be the goal this week it's going to be to save par but we have a really balanced profile that helps you get there and I will once again mention Oliver Becker at 7000 37 years old it's not really when you want to see us a turn around but it's not really well in data golf true strokes game metrics mine mine are pretty similar so I just will leverage that one here but instead of top 100 in the official wargolf rankings 7 top 11 finishes in 11 DP World Tours starts this year one of those was at the Catalonia Championship even a second there and Brandon that was while I was there so I feel like we have to use Oliver Becker now because he and I were both in the region of Catalonia at the same time it's destiny Oliver Becker winner of the 2022 PGA championship because of this this is not a narrative it's not a herit it's a veritive because I was there if you've quit that's okay I accept your resignation my second low salary guys Harold Varner the third he is not super long off the tee but every other part of his game is great he's also like you she's not short he's not like super super long but he's good elsewhere he ranks 13th in approach 19th around the green 41st in bank grass putting bank grass that service for HV 3 2 and we look at him before a good finish to the Zurich his most recent known as the RBC heritage and in that one we saw HV 3 gain 7.6 an approach and finish third he was also 6th at the players I like that a lot for 88 what are your thoughts on Harold Varner the third this week don't mind him but prefer a few other names would you accept a Russell Henley versus Harold Varner the third head-to-head final nation is to scream yes but let me check and let me pull a gym here and let you know that I'm laying a hundred dollars in salary here yeah I'm about 30 extra 20 points shorter in the bedding odds you're not laying anything you're get out of here who invited you should quit why did you have to I made the stupid narrative joke you should have quit yeah I'll take that okay I'm also giving you like 0.06 and data golf choose to see in the past six months so get out of here with your I'm giving you this I'm gonna replay this next time you pull that on me yeah but like usually I'm giving you bedding odds to you're not giving me bedding odds which matter more than salary don't lie is that our only bet for this week yeah so I want to squeeze at least one in there you want to throw in some more I'm going to find a Rory thing but I haven't found it yet maybe I should just do no I don't like JT a lot so I don't want to do that and I can't do it versus shuffle or wrong because that'd be stupid I got nothing for Rory what about Rory versus beef if you're gonna make make a fuss about giving me a hundred yeah okay um how about because I want to make this happen a name we didn't really discuss cam smith I kind of like him this week but I can't like everyone give me cam smith plus no no no I'm not giving you plus anything actually I'm in an event where it's scoring will be lower because there are yeah I know that's gonna say like you know how about now if you if you won't do Rory versus JT then just yeah I don't think we'll go in there I did get a question over on YouTube from star lords dad I don't think that's actually you because he died in the movie spoiler alert anyway um thoughts and Adam hadwin $8100 hadwin not a distance guy but pretty good around the green decent putter not bad and approach Adam hadwin in your player pool 81 or no so I've seen his name floated around a lot I have him just outside the top 30 and my stats only model he's about average in the sort of spike based upside pretty solid fairway through green golfer so if you can give him just you know if he hits enough fairways and isn't totally behind in distance I think that there's a case to be made I would prefer hadwin or I would prefer Munoz to had win and also came young to hadwin but if I had to scrounge up more names there had one might be you know top three top four in that low 8000 range so again nothing against hadwin so much as can't name everyone but yeah it's a good call out okay so we are okay with Adam hadwin 81 after you get to those other guys down there but again also behind Oliver becker who is guaranteed to win as a result of the veritive narrative for this week win picks outside of Oliver becker will exclude him because it's too easy who are you picking to win this week based on their current odds of fangirl sports JT at 16 to 1 okay and it's between Cantley and Lowry okay or Zander but they all shortened which I don't love but I'll go I'll go can't let 19 I'm not I'm not this isn't a long shot week for outrides for me so I'm keeping at least 21 now by the way he lengthened okay I'll take that okay so I was like going into this like feeling great about Hideki and Sam Burns but they both lengthened which like you should be like oh hey Jim that's great you're getting better odds but it also means that people are not betting them and that makes me feel very uncomfy so I'm still gonna do it but like there's always a mental block of like oh seems bad although I think that lengthened a lot of people from being honest right now like Roy lengthened yeah Cantley lengthened well can't I shorten and then he was 20 I mean he actually shortened from Hideki's 32 to 1 he's gonna win Burns will also win he's 48 to 1 so I'll take those two guys so it's a little bit longer shots but like guys with like realistic paths to him I think that's a bigger way to view things correct like we're not like they are they're kind of long shots but they're like you're asking me how betting works they're not dark they're not Darthrose no they're not but I think Burns is about like Burns how far down as I would go personally I would go to are these guys till 50 now with no homeless 55 burgers 55 again that's about honestly where I would consider capping it for outright I agree because this is a don't bet top 5s and top 10s because the hold on them is hideous but this is this is not necessarily true if you run the numbers on some guys you'll find some value every now and then I ran NASCAR numbers last week and there is value one guy in a 36 driver field I'm not as car I'm mad every week every week we go over this why am I paying a higher tax to that NASCAR there in that injustice okay so you're with I didn't listen to your Olympics can't land who can't land JT I'm notorious notorious closures well we get a deck he used to have that similar you have it till you have it till you win Scotty Schaeffler had it till we won four times in six starts yeah Sam Burns already won twice in the past like I don't know number of starts so Sam Burns guaranteed winner along with the deck you they will share the trophy and it'll be great and I get credit for both them no dead heat rules I just get the bet for both that is all that we have here for this week for brand any final thoughts for you on this PGA championship before the good people go off to fill out their fantastic lineups just the obligatory major closing thought where you're going to be able to pivot from the chalk if you choose to do so because there there's not a whole lot that separates these golfers we went through this whole show barely taught I don't I mean I just throughout camp Smith's name you probably mentioned his betting odds but like camp Smith was all the rage not that long ago DJ Hovland if you're there like you're going to find guys who were overlooked and if you want to play that way this is the best week to do that kind of stuff so that's always how I like to close this one out and also consider the narratives the heritages and the narratives before you finish finding things out but also like Brandon said do you want to pivot if you can find a way to be different without being dumb I think that's always my key thoughts for a major that is all that we have here for this week on the PGA championship but if you are a new listener we use this every single week breaking down the PGA tour event it's not typically an hour and a half so it's not always long I promise you of that getting you in and out quickly to get you our thoughts on that week's PGA tour feel if you want that plus MLB USC and NASCAR podcast subscribe to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast eat wherever you get your podcasts and we also are on Apple podcast Spotify Stitcher I had a list of those in case whatever anyway you also follow the Fandil podcast network at Fandil podcast Brandon where are you on Twitter? Not but sometimes a Cadoula 13 and GDULA 13 in theory you're on Twitter at Cadoula 13 I am actually on Twitter chronically on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S want to thank you all for tuning in and good luck to you with your Linus of the PGA championship enjoy the golf we'll talk to you once again next week this has been the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire