 I kind of think and looking at this week 12 main slate here on a Wednesday that it might be my favorite slate of the entire year now that's kind of odd because typically my enthusiasm for a slate increases as the week goes along we get more value plays so you can be more creative I kind of think this one's good right now which makes me pretty enthusiastic about how we can build things out for the Sunday slate we're going to break down the Sunday main slate for today get you set for that hopefully we need some cash as well on Sunday over on Fanduel.com this is a heat check fantasy podcast powered by Numberfire that's right here on the Fanduel podcast network and Numberfire.com my name is Jim Sonnis I am a senior writer and analyst for Numberfire.com joined here as always by Brandon Gedula he is the senior managing editor of Numberfire.com branded week 12 I think looks pretty sick how you doing today I'm good yeah it looks like a good slate uh sometimes I feel like when we do this uh the show on Wednesday due to the holiday we go in a bit I don't want to say half hearted because like the effort's there but we just don't know enough about the situations clear eyes for arts can't lose I think we know clear clear eyes firm takes can't lose I'm assuming that's a reference but oh my gosh you've never watched front and it lights the TV show oh yeah we talked about this I tried it it was not you would have seen it isn't like the first episode yeah but it not not really messing okay how about this eyes closed head first can't lose do you get that one no it's a Brooklyn 99 reference you're just why do I talk to you like what's the point oh my gosh I don't know I'm out here I mean you've been talking to me a lot this week three I know it's our third straight day with a podcast Speaking of which if you're looking for a Thanksgiving show that is already up we posted that yesterday it's up on the fadle youtube page and up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed breaking down the three game at Thanksgiving slate time stands for each gamer in there in case you want to skip ahead for like single game stuff uh that is up right now this is the main slate on Sunday we're recording this Wednesday due to the holiday which means injury stuff's gonna change we're gonna go through uh tentative injury notes throughout the show for today weather will change stuff's gonna change but honestly Brandon I think this game this late rules do you agree with me yeah it it already is kind of easy to build some lineups that I like for this week and again usually I feel like when we do this the Thanksgiving means like not the thanks the main slate show during Thanksgiving week usually we're like well if that it's just if then statements the whole time yeah yeah we have a few of those that are crucial but we also have enough intel outside of that to build some some good lineups Wednesday uh so it's a it's a good situation to be in I can spend up a wide receiver I can feel good about some lower salary running back plays it's fun we're gonna break down what those lower salary backs are where we're spending our flexibilities I think we got some fun games to stack too not just the games talking about the bookmaker section but some others too so we'll get to that for the week 12 main slate in just one second but first as mentioned check out the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast need for all your DFS needs not just the Thanksgiving podcast but also Tom Becchio with the Daily ISO covering NBA DFS no show Thursday or Friday but we do have one for Wednesday and also next week for sure so get subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast football fans make this a thanksgiving to remember with Fan Duel America's number one sports book because what do you bet NFL Same Game Parley from now through November 28th which I think is Monday but don't know we'll say Monday all customers can get up to $100 in free bets win or lose just 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Louisiana 1-877-770-stop in New York 1-877-8 Hope & Y or text Hope & Y in Tennessee call the red line at 1-889-979 or in West Virginia 1-800-gambler.net let's dive into this slate the week 12 main slate and talk about our slate overview for this week and brand to me the key thing two things two things stand out to me the first one is that we have lower salary backs who have a pretty reliable path upside those guys being as of now most likely Rashad White but definitely Antonio Gibson definitely Isaiah Pacheco and then potentially Samajia P Rine as well I would be okay with all those guys if Nixon can't go we get P Rine I think that's a really fun option to have second thing is there are like five games I could justify stacking now not all those games involve a quarterback some of them are no quarterback games but there are a lot of ways you can play this and still feel pretty good about things so value running backs decent number of games we can stack what's the slate overview for you yeah I think sifting through the running backs and getting the the prioritization correct and not getting overexposed two value backs who maybe have a little bit more question marks than some others I think that there's really no no issue with Antonio Gibson right like we saw him in positive script last week surprisingly so I think that there's really no reason to be worried about someone like Antonio Gibson I think with P Rine there's still a little bit more projection Pacheco there's you know the passing game work probably not going to quite be there but I know that you and I won't quite get there but there are some other names that I think optimizers will like a lot such as Latavius Murray at 6200 I think Michael Carter at 62 as well like there's going to be a lot of names there and figuring out the better ones and excluding the ones we shouldn't be as high on I think is going to be key yeah I think so too and the good thing is too we don't have to force in thin plays like with Mike White starting for the Jets we're probably going to hear a lot of talking Michael Carter because he got a lot of targets when white was starting last year I think that's pretty thin personally because the Jets rushing offense sucks that's not going to change without Zach Wilson because the running backs aren't that great the offensive line is not that great no it's pretty good match up with the Bears but I don't want to go with a guy just because he got a lot of targets from a quarterback last year I think that I can be picky and not force in guys like Carter specifically when I have other options I don't have to you know extend myself if there's a game I'm shaky about if I decide you know this Chargers Cardinals game not doing it for me I don't have to force that I think that I've got ways to play things so I think that is very encouraging let's take a look at the injuries for week 12 again we're doing this Wednesday so there will be more injuries to pop up that we don't know about so check the number of fire player news page check your favorite player news source whatever that may be and try to dissect try to digest the way this is an impact thing start things off with Joe Mixon he's in concussion protocol puts the status of week 12 up in the air he could play but Samajia Pirine salary is $6600 how high would you be on Pirine at Mixon Can't Go? Yeah I'm actually gonna what my slate overview should have probably added was the reality of the holiday this week where staying in tune with the news is important to get a leg up but also finding some perspective and making sure that you're not just completely avoiding all the family for for your DFS lineups but yeah staying in tune figuring out like you know what happened like think through a contingency on Wednesday or Friday you know of what to do if you love love Pirine but we get news that that Mixon's gonna play like just think about that a little bit earlier if you know you can find some time to think through that but without without Mixon Pirine we talked on Monday about this you were higher on Pirine than I was I think that Pirine would probably be third for me among the value backs behind Gibson and Rashad White personally but he's a tier above I mean I know that you and I don't love Latavius Murray and Michael Carter but like what about Pacheco? Pacheco number three. Above Samajia Pirine? Above Pirine yeah. Why? I think that we have a spot where Pirine's team is going to score about 30 and have a lot of rushing work. I don't necessarily think that Pirine will have a featured role. We'll get receiving work but I don't see him getting like 20 carries I think Pacheco's going to have a season best on the ground this week just due to the game script. Okay I disagree with the like I think that he's going to get like if we're talking about him versus Rashad White and him versus Pacheco he is much more likely to get passing game work than either of those guys I think by a wide margin and he'll be the goal line back so even though the scoring expectation might not be as high I want access to that passing game work he gets me it for $600 a game I think is very stackable like a very good game. It's a tough matchup you know Titan's very good against the rush but I'm using for passing game work using it for touchdown equity and I think he's going to have that so I'm I'd put him second behind Gibson and I think he's in the same tier as Gibson at worst. Okay I have Gibson probably tier of his own and then I'd say White Pacheco and P Rine in a tier of their own I don't want to lose this I don't want to lose sight of the fact that Rashad White is expected to be the the featured guy for the Buccaneers against the Cleveland Browns. Yeah I mean I'm expecting probably 50-50 honestly similar to what they did in the first half against Seattle which was 50-50 right down the middle and no targets were in there pretty windy game which lower scoring expectations so you know that's that's the issue for me is like I think there is more uncertainty in his profile than there would be for P Rine if P Rine gets a start. So I think the real I think the real thing here is we're going to use Gibson yeah we're going to use P Rine if Nixon doesn't go yeah yep yeah that's we're going to use Rashad White and we're going to use Pacheco Pacheco yeah so there's four value backs you I mean we can bump them up and down all we want but I think they're all very good plays they're all very reasonable for sure same team Jamar Chase expected to practice this week coming off his hip injury I don't think he'll play he's missed the past three games but he might play how much would he return for Chase impact if you're the rest of the Bengals yeah would elevate the offense for sure I think that if we're if we're being honest if you if the Bengals are without Jamar Chase without Joe Nixon I still like the offense but Tennessee's a pretty solid defense they can kind of complicate things I think that's partially why in the back of my head I'm a little bit lower on P Rine is I'm not expecting Chase to be at full health I'm pretty sure your numbers don't like the Titans defense as much as sort of because I I focus more on early down EPA like I weed out the late down stuff they're very good on late downs because they create chaos but you got to get to the late down first and you know do you know a quarterback who can kind of invite more chaos than he probably should you know quarterback who moved the sticks on first and second down Shaskin I think I think it's a yes to both with with Joe Burrow here so it's volatile but volatility is good yeah that doesn't necessarily mean I want to prioritize a back with a more volatile situation I don't care I walk I think that Chase elevates the offense he would increase the chance that game shoots out which I think is enticing for Traylon Burks for Derek Henry so it'd be a benefit if he doesn't play I'll still probably be into some mini stacks here like T Higgins Smoget P Rine Traylon Burks Derek Henry fun with all those guys so I'll probably be here regardless but Chase would elevate it for sure I do I do think in P Rine's favor the P Rine Burke stack is very helpful yes sorry I didn't think for a second I thought you froze because you were so yeah I didn't know I'm out open for a second we don't know yet if Justin Fields will play this week suffered a left shoulder injury week 11 facing off with Mike White and the New York Jets the fight and Mike White's that that spread moved to five and a half the second the Jets announced that they were gonna bench Wilson but then went back to four and a half so it seems like people realized it's still Mike White you know we can we can get excited about the benching but it's still Mike White um what's your interest level in this game with all the moving pieces at quarterback uh zero no like Garrett Wilson with the quarterback change nothing like that I don't think I need to we're we're leave it to us to fight over great like strong value running backs um but we have four that I can realistically play I don't think I need to take a chance on Garrett Wilson with Mike White at six thousand I think his role will still be good yeah I just don't anticipate really building around too many receivers in that range yeah and I guess if I'm there I'm gonna go Birx over Wilson I agreed um I would also note there's some pretty high potential for wins in this game looks like 15 mile per hour wins that hurts Garrett Wilson as well so what else is new I know everyone's got wind no not Tennessee Nashville's Nashville's looking around nine miles per hour um I'm talking to some out of your eye as being a lock button play any uh any any Wilson for you uh I wouldn't be shocked if I assume but I'm not actually seeking him out which means if I have any it'll be because I need to lower my Birx exposure do you anticipate this game going over no don't care I don't think it like I think that the only guy I'd consider is is Garrett Wilson right I'm saying not combined for 40 points yeah assuming fields is out well just touchdown Trevor revenge game then though well I get like even if fields plays it does not defense is sick they're not going to run him they're not going to run him that defense is sick I don't really have interest in fields if he plays right so yeah I agree also I have jets minus four so let's go Mike uh the Broncos released Melvin Gordon this week they will be without Chase Edmunds as well he is on IR with an ankle injury they've got Latavius Murray Marlon Max in the practice squad Divino Zigbo remember that name he's in the practice squad too bad offense as we are well aware total is up to 36 and a half are you going Latavius Murray with a salary of 6200 dollars I am not uh he was we can move on okay uh the Panthers will start Sam Darnold against the Broncos does it matter no it does not I agree Matthew Stafford is a concussion protocol again meaning I don't think he should play probably will not play this week John Wolford also banged up surprise Perkins would potentially start he's a fun runner um fun preseason guy the team released Daryl Henderson that we barely played last week so likely a back of quarterback is that plus the hideous offensive line enough to keep you off of Kyron Williams at 5300 dollars it's it's tempting because it's it's it's tempting because in a vacuum I'm gonna question that is it tempting in a vacuum if we saw ostensibly a starting running back with you know some some juice uh some ability to get targets and run routes uh at 5300 in a game where they should trail against the chiefs almost seems guaranteed um that they'll put you be playing from behind that sounds appealing until you realize that we have at least four backs in the sub 6500 range that are much better plays so I want to say like yeah I can consider it still I would probably be more open to it if there were no value backs but with the four that we're already discussing I can't get the Williams in this offense that but I wouldn't be surprised if we saw another like 43 game here this week uh yeah so their implied total is 14.75 their implied win odds are 12.5 percent seems bad how are you gonna get in with a total of 44 in your in your totals under 15 points I want to see here your 14.5 point underdogs I guess is how but quickly um yeah my my numbers typically my numbers are are going to be like higher on big underdogs because like yeah that's the way things typically work from a modeling perspective I think the Rams money line is actually overvalued at 7 to 1 so I'm not I'm not doing it um Mike Williams may have a shot to go this week despite aggravating his ankle injury on Sunday nights he left after just a couple of series or snaps should say Keenan Allen is fully back though that's good with all of the chargers the bookmaker section we don't yet know the status of Kyler Murray as he deals with his hamstring injury Colt McCoy got pulled on week 11 but would likely start if Murray can't go the Cardinals could get Marquis Brown back this week Rhonda Moore dealing with a groin injury he seems unlikely to play Greg Dorch getting an MRI on his thumb after he injured that in Mexico City we'll talk about them in the bookmaker section uh the chiefs we don't know the status of juju Smith Schuster yet because he is in concussion protocol but canaries tony dealing with a hamstring injury of course michael harvin is on IR clouded with elare uh has a high ankle sprain he's not going to play we'll talk about the chiefs in the trend section the falcons placed Kyle Pitts on IR where they torn MCL they're facing washington very good rush defense does he pits injury combined with washington's rush defense open up enough volume for you to consider drake london at $6,100 so i knew we were going to talk about him to end this section and i was going to i wanted to ask like garret wilson or drake london i'd go drake london there um i think that the washington offense is kind of you know decent in terms of what they can give us especially with gibson but courtesy of my thing is a probably a bit over salary to 65 but he's still getting rushing work um and i love terry what's that red zone rushing work specifically like i don't mind terry in a vacuum 75 is a bit much with like locket and keenan and dk under him i could justify like mini stacks but i think the most realistic outcome for london is that he still gets like six six targets at most because they just spread things around on the little on the very limited passing that they have so i think that london is going to be one of the optimizer loves that makes sense on paper but not necessarily in practice i agree that i prefer london over wilson better quarterback play and we can talk about marcus mariotta but he's not mic white um so better quarterback play more likely to have a legit role in the offense because like they could always go to cori davis a lot more they could just run the ball lots so i'm likely to be in a fun game i think both these games suck i don't think the likelihood of either game being more more likely no equal it's zero for both there's no shot if these games is watchable the problem is like so uncovering the spread we'll talk about like what i what i say is this game is better than than bears jets and jim says no it's equally bad yeah they're both equal actually they're not good i like i like get out of here i looked at projected efficiency and this one is a lot worse or the jet scheme's a lot worse so sorry you're right you're right you're right okay okay let's dig into the bookmaker section for this week highest total your time for the highest total is in arizona for the chargers and cardinals that's at 47 and a half chargers are four and a half point favorites not sure kyler murray at a lot of moving pieces on the cardinal side but the chargers have some dudes we can probably get to austin nekler this week which i think is intriguing given that his role is a lot better uh how does this game grate out for you in terms of stacking uh two teams that generally feel like optimal stacks but then end up being sort of traps um this one's a bit hard because we don't know the status of marquise brown rondo more um or the quarterback which i guess i probably should have let off with but the fact that i didn't is probably a bit telling uh de undre hopkins salary of 8400 is a bit difficult um so i think that he's like relegated to game stacks only um i didn't quite see enough i don't think i saw enough from uh tray mcbride to go there either so i'm kind of down to like just hopkins for the cardinals as it stands now without like the knowledge of which receivers are going to be healthy that feels kind of bad so it's it makes it hard to say that i love to stack this game but you wouldn't be on dork like let's say dork is cleared from the thumb thing and marquise brown also plays would you be off dork at 49 i wouldn't like prioritize him it's 49 is low it is but again do i need i know but like so as much as i like the value running backs the stud running backs are pretty good too yeah so i'm not going to turn down austin eckler you know kenneth walker the third dara kenry i'll probably turn down christian mccaffrey but like i'm not going to say no if i can get it via bankable production and dorsch if you know even if there's hollywood there i think he's at least like in play yeah i think like a i guess a dorsch eckler stack is is fun yeah you're right where are you an eckler relative to the higher salary backs i mentioned henry we've got uh jacob's up there big ken big ken runner um i feel like for me i'm at the point where i'd probably i prefer walker i prefer henry and then i'd probably put eckler above jacob's but i'm not sure i should so although i'm higher on ecker than i have been i'm also not sure i'll get there which is which feels bad i probably should be higher the red zone roll still good yeah it's really good now it's yeah it's really good one thing that was a little bit strange was uh the pass catching um i know they got keen and allen back but i don't think it's like because there's keen and allen back you can't throw to eckler still ran about just under half the routes um just the two targets last week so again it's it's like not a perfect roll but there's still the building blocks within that with the red zone work the route rate to have a big game so i'm not going to relegate eckler to game stacks only but i don't think i'm quite going to be there in like a single lineup i don't know if it's a mistake to have walker over him but i currently do i do too um so i like his game like i like this game a decent amount at the hard part is again we don't have a whole lot of clarity with what's going to happen with the cardinals eckler versus etn big salary difference so consider salary as well uh well that's a tough one i love etn but i'd probably go eckler because he can score i can see him scoring multiple times quite easily in this match up etn has a 49 red zone share as the lead back so and i think that game goes over so i don't know i i like eckler more but there are a lot of good options up there i think that's a big takeaway for me yeah it's like that's what is it like a seven point gap and apply team total difference though i would assume that there's just more touchdowns for the chargers okay you can assume that but when the jags win by scoring 38 points you can you can uh run back crying very like this the jags and ravens has to be like your all-time biolo game yeah it's an awesome game what do you mean that's the best game of all time i just i've heard i've heard a lot from you about how the the ravens are gonna explode oh yeah i feel like the jaguars are in in that i've been talking about but i'm like oh i'm so excited about the ravens like i love the ravens my numbers love the ravens they're underrated because of the schedule they faced and then i bet the jags money line this week so like i love both sides man i want to tie 50 to 50 50 to 50 that means they don't score an overtime 5650 someone scores an o.t preferably jags for my money line ticket the like it's right man all right jaguars country let's ride first uh herbert yes or no yes currently yeah i think i think honestly quarterback is a bit it might be the most difficult position early on in the week i agree that maybe i know tight ends not as hard we have options i guess i just don't know how i want to rank them yeah i guess it's the same as quarterback where i don't know how to rank these guys just yeah i do like tua i like lamar yes i probably won't be able to talk you into gino but i think gino's fine burrow from a if this game wants to go and overlook perspective is really fun also they just said that jamar chases they expected to play um so that helps burrow too yes did i actually yeah i did okay cool um yes okay other 47 and a half point total is the seahawks and the raiders that's a 47 and a half the seahawks are favored by three and a half there are four different seahawks well three seahawks i love one i will try to talk you into at some point uh two raiders grayed out pretty well with two more at least somewhat viable am i dumb for loving this game too no i like this game okay uh how many quarterbacks for you in this game half okay because gino is a maybe so it's a half quarterback game okay i think that's fair uh i think this is like right for many stacks all different types of ways with the receivers and running backs no tight ends i'm kind of done with foster morrow but probably yeah uh i mean any combination i can get of the running backs and receivers i'm pretty much good with i don't know that's too simple but i don't think it needs to be too complicated because these are some of the best market shares uh we have in football yeah um i think this game is so the fun thing about this game is typically i have a hard time getting to the divante adams and cooper cup kind of guys because i want to spend it a running back and they're always too high salary to get there i can get there this week and divantes in a really good spot so that means the game stacks are even more enticing because i can include the good aspects of this game josh Jacobs too i can get there as well so i think that what i want to do is actively get to at least many stacks of this game um like make a conscious effort to have dk paired with divante that does mean you know let's make some you know maybe have to lower my exposure to dara kenry something like that but i i want to actively try and i'm squeezing in game stacks here just because it is a a fun game my numbers have this projected as the highest game wide offensive efficiency for the entire main slate in part because the cheese are facing a really bad offense the offense are facing really bad offense those individual teams will be very good and great up better than both these teams but like from a potential game stacking perspective it is it is pretty fun so i do like uh the uh this game quite a bit and i can get there as well yeah i think uh a fun stack is josh Jacobs with kenneth walker yeah not the most it's not the it's not the kind of stack that people think of first we have numerous value backs but you know and this can only work with one value back but like just because we have value backs available doesn't mean we have to play three of them in every lineup exactly you can play i think i want to actively make sure i don't use three yeah because i want to make sure i'm getting enough exposure to the stud running backs as well so a maximum of two minimum of one yeah i think that's that's where i am as well okay um who do you prefer between dk and lock it dk always his market shares are better the downfield work is is there the red zone work is a lot better for him so he's my preference and preference between jacob's and walker i know you said both but like i agree and i agree with that but preference between the two as a standalone play uh walker trust this quarterback a lot more i agree with you on all accounts there as well so let's move now um to the third game it's the jags and the ravens ravens are four point favorites here total is down to 43 and a half that went down two points from monday why him it's a livid i'm curious i'm just asking questions brand just asking questions just asking questions both these teams have top 12 offenses by my schedule adjusted 2022 only numbers um those numbers say the jack can keep this game close again i did bet their money line plus 172 does not move to my favor at all it's stayed steady 172 but we're we're we're keeping the faith we'll check back on wind later it's currently 10 miles per hour which is fine but i'm worried it might get higher if that's all clear where are you at in this game yeah i like this one as as both mini stacks but also stacks with i don't know if i can quite get to laurence yeah i agree with that so that's a one quarterback game for me agreed um i think that mark andrews is a really fun pivot uh because he hasn't really put up the numbers in quite some time a lot of saying he's gonna be some off the wall play that nobody thinks of it's not it's not bad it's just if you look at the game log hasn't really been there there's more to it than that with with how good his workload is uh kelsey coming off of you know yet another slate altering type of performance you got 230 point games this year yeah they're both on island games yeah and then he was on the main site the next week so okay well yeah so the salary is up there but um the research i've done shows that like slide pivots uh tight end or great plays so love andrews um we can talk about the the receivers here my my heart like the hardest part is getting access to like numerous receivers in this game i feel like it's kind of these two teams specifically have one key passcatcher and then other guys who tempt us but are really hard to bank on so they're game stacks only um yeah i agree this the receiver part of it um because like kirk's salary is very high that's tough to get to um with andrews i think that there are three tight ends i feel like decent about this week those guys being travis kelsey of course um uh take some hill for me i i don't mind if you want to say no to that that's okay i can't blame you and then i think andrews is third um i don't know necessarily but i think that all three of those guys are like legitimately good options this week so i think that's going to keep a lid on how popular we'll see um andrews get and i think that that's encouraging for the reasons you discussed seventy three hundred dollars still tremendous market shares in the games without rasha bateman playing with a quarterback i saw a lot of faith so andrews great quarterback option or great tight end option i love lemar i like etn a lot etn is my favorite uh bring back option relative to salary i am fully off zay jones and marvin jones i'd had a kick with that and i'm done i can't i can't do that anymore so that's the one aspect where i'm good being we'll see you uh talk to you next year maybe but a lemar andrews etn stack is firmly firmly firmly in consideration for if i had like one single entry lineup that would be on the table for me yeah the rare uh qb te opposing rb stack um but i think that's the best way to do it and then i have uh ooh a receiver game stack with either berks and chase berks higgins or a divante dk you know we'll spill the right now build it on the fly yeah but again uh i think kirk is this like the role's great the salary a bit much um talks to me about the marcus robinson though he's like okay uh this i wish the seller had a five in front of it right that's my primary issue so let's say i have 10 lemar lineups i'm probably going seven andrews three robinson and nobody else i think that's probably where i'd go what about you i think that's fair the salary while not low it's still low enough that if he's just okay um you can kind of overcome it assuming that lemar does what you rostered him assuming he would do my issue and this is like probably not fair but i just i have a hard time with the ravens because you can trust mark andrews and then we'll see guys pop and then they changed their game plan uh the next week and it doesn't it's not necessarily predictable so again robinson i like the game uh i would mini stack him if possible uh but outside of that like i don't think he's very good at his it is salaried to the point that i play him in a single entry like without a game stack component to this right so now game stacks you're assuming the guy has like a really good ceiling by himself and i don't think like as much as i've come around on him i don't think he has that ceiling like by himself so game stacks only i'm very okay with that i will include in game stacks um but i think i think the fact this game is kind of narrow is encouraging because i could just go i could pepper that lemar andrews lemar andrews lemar andrews like combo and feel pretty good about that yeah i think that's encouraging for me yeah you want you you do want games that are narrow sometimes i i say that a game is too narrow which means that i just like i'll place the obvious stacks but i want to make sure that i'm not getting out over my skis with the like tertiary sort of options that just don't necessarily they're not as good a place if i didn't like the game as much exactly that's a that's a robinson that's a marve stuff like that yeah okay let's dig into our trends discussion for this week and trends i think are better this week because there are more relevant offenses we didn't touch on during the bookmaker section that begins with the team that live it up on monday uh the san francisco 49ers they've had christ mccaffrey for now three games two of those were with debo you're going to dig into this offense with mccaffrey in the mix what do you see when you look at that data yes the three games with mccaffrey um played under 30 percent of snabs in his debut but has since um played 81 64 65 percent in the three most recent games that that that i'm looking at here despite like a what you would consider for mccaffrey like a fairly limited snap rate he's averaged over 110 scrimmage yards per game on 13 carries and over seven targets per game which is over 27 adjusted opportunities which for us is carries plus double your targets so great workload even though the snap rate itself if you looked at it a little bit concerning especially than two most recent games um he has 42 percent of the red zone rushing share 36 percent overall of the red zone opportunities in that three game split um debo samuel and eladjah mitch will have been back for the past two games and those are when we saw this the snap rate scale back a bit part of that though too you could maybe attribute to the blowout on monday night so there's a lot of extrapolation here uh point being mccaffrey still good of in in any split even on you know somewhat limited volume 91 and a half yards per game from scrimmage and those two again despite the blowout that should have elevated him even more so it's it's a tempting role we know how good the talent is i don't love this game overall and this salary is really high for mccaffrey at 92 so i think he is a great tournament play because the process is imperfect but if he plays 75 percent of the snaps in that game stays close he can go for 150 scrimmage yards in a touchdown uh or more um and it shouldn't surprise us based on what's like under the surface with with his workload um overall in the two games with mccaffrey eladge and mitchell and debo active together debo does pace the team with a 26 target share the eight out's only 4.2 yards but he has 25 percent of the red zone targets i mean he's also averaging three and a half carries in this split for 32 yards per game and his catch rate over expectation is a minus 12.4 percent i think that there's a lot of greatness with debo this week that is i just has him under salary at 6900 so i love debo this week mccaffrey is actually second in target share at 23 percent again i think he's a good play but not necessarily like a cash game or head to head gameplay um brandon iuk 19 target share 30 percent ariard share a lot of red zone work 38 percent i think he's just over salary though with debo at 200 more i don't really know how i can justify iuk because i'm not going to stack i'm not going to play garoppolo and if i was in theory i would fill the lineup with debo and then pivot and plug in iuk but i don't think that's the right play this week so i don't see how i'm going to get to iuk very much george kittle pretty distant fourth in target share at 14 percent um at 6200 he has appeal 13 percent red zone share though don't love that and kind of created his touchdowns his touchdown opportunities so you know it's maybe not as bad of a matchup as it might seem with the saints i don't know where your where your numbers have the saints defensively they're about average give or take according to number fires adjusted metrics so it's a bit of a beatable matchup i think that debo is the best play by far i think i think mccaffrey makes sense um if i was stacking this game like if we get on alvin chimera i could see just bringing it back in hopes that it's a bit of a higher higher scoring game but ultimately what this tells me is that i love debo this week yeah i think debo's under salaried my numbers had the saints 23rd so that's not great uh their defense 23rd yeah the issue that i have with mccaffrey is that like if it's a neutral script that means their offense is not clicking if it's a positive script he's gonna lose that work they want to save him for the playoffs we've seen that twice now like i guess in that chargers game like it was pretty neutral script and he's still lost a lot of work to elie mitchell the cardinals game he played a lot in the first half which i thought was very encouraging um but then they got out too far ahead which is also in the realm of possibilities this week i am probably not going to have any mccaffrey as bad as that feels yeah just like the workload is like it's good but it's not 92 good 92 hundred dollars unfan it was good yeah when i can use henry i can use big ken runner um i can use jacob's eckler stuff like that etn a value back it's hard to get there debo fine with yeah i think that he's he's definitely on the menu and i'm okay with that because he's uh outside a lot or he's like playing actual receiver a lot more which means his target share as you alluded to has been better so i think debo makes a lot of sense but he might be the only 49er i use for this week yeah i think i'm there um if i liked if we didn't have as much value i would play more alvin chimera sure um and then i would just force in more like george kittle because i wouldn't want to play just debo and chimera together and all of those stacks but as stand on plays i think this team just has two you know too many miles to feed in a sense and they're not necessarily good enough to give everyone enough work but debo is the one in particular who's just uh his salary's too low yeah and even debo like there are guys around there i like like kenan 73 yeah that is a $40 matters a lot but like dk is there for dk and kenan over debo personally it's a great juju 66 as well if he gets cleared we are going to have a gadget showdown between tason hill and debo samuel though so just stack them yeah the gadget stack also a hill stack is in play this week tyreek hill tason hill ryan tana hill it's in play tana hill probably not but like you know the hill stacks in play they're not even in the same game it's a name stack it doesn't have to be in the same game what are you talking about get out of here man if i mentioned playing ryan tana hill you would quit the show i didn't mention playing and i mentioned it as a joke the hill was it a joke yeah i'm not actually gonna use ryan tana hill not a moron usually well you did send me uh a lineup with with those three in it so yeah because of the name stack i'm dedicated to the name stack which is why i'm going to talk about tyreek hill and the dolphins are my first trend the dolphins massive implied total for this week 28 and a half points only problem is that they're pretty heavy favorites and my numbers say that spread may be a bit too light at 13 points i don't think it's a huge issue though the dolphins have run 94 plays this year while leading by eight or more points their pass rate while leading by eight plus is 57.4 percent the bears are like 20 percentage points below that overall which is not i mean that i made it up but like it's nuts how past 70 the dolphins are these situations league average leading by eight plus is 46 percent the rams are the only team that has run at least 20 plays while leading by eight or more points to have a higher pass rate the shocker here is the rams have been leading by eight plus points more than 20 plays it's been like 68 so there is a surprise there even if we reduce that to just a second half which it wouldn't matter more in the second half leading by eight plus points the dolphins have a 51 percent pass rate across 72 plays the only team higher than them with a significant sample is the bill is a 52 percent the dolphins have won by 10 plus points twice this year to a tongue of aloe 33 and 32 pass attempts in those games tyreek hill 12 and six targets uh jail and waddles had five and both which is disappointing but it's enough for us to get by with how good those guys are i think to us very inflated salary despite the spread the receivers fully justifiable i'm also down to clown with jeff wilson salary is high at 77 but took over the lead back role before they're by 143 yards of scrimmage in that game against a bad browns defense but the text instinct too 17 carries five targets so typically i want to shy away from teams with a big spread but i don't think i will hear i think that they're good enough to you know they're aggressive enough to keep their foot on the gas so how do you view the dolphin's offense against the texans yeah so i have uh whenever miami is up by at least eight their pass rate over expectation of plus 13 would you love to see um that's top three in the nfl um yeah like blowouts are always hard to navigate because yes they can lead to scaled back volume but specifically with quarterback uh you need efficiency like volume alone is not how you score points at quarterback especially if you don't run um too well you know can scramble here and there but he's not going to run the ball uh so i could see like a you know 30 attempt game even but just elevated efficiency and to get to a there and make him one of the best quarterback plays uh of the week the bigger question i think for me is tyreek sure because an efficient seven target game might not be enough to burn me at 92 i think i need a little more appeal for for houston to bring it back for for tyreek to push for like 10 plus targets i know you said he had uh what 12 and 6 and then the two double digit wins yeah so if we look at the games where he's had um let's look at less than 12 targets because he's had every game he's had double digits he's hit 12 yeah so the games he's had less than 12 33 yards 47 yards 143 yards and 44 yeah so a lower passing volume game reduces the odds he kills you yes for not using him that's my biggest fear if he were if he were 82 like let's say like oh it was accounted for the fact that this might be a blowout i'd say he could get there 92 is really difficult um and then you have to come in and ask like tyreek or derek henry or tyreek versus echler or something like that i think that gets a little bit more complicated now again if i felt like the texans could bring it back if i even felt like i could bring it back with like anybody but we saw them get blown out last week damien pierce was reduced to rubble um that's my main fear despite all that i still might have two as like my main quarterback play yeah because i don't see how he escapes this game because like worst case is houston keeps it close and so two is throwing more which over the long over even a full game uh he's going to be efficient enough with these receivers so so it's hard to envision how two doesn't get there i just don't know if there's enough for the the skill players to pop off what about jeff wilson 77 is high he's right by etn i'm kind of surprised by hi how sour high sourd he was i thought okay he'll be 7 000 and i'll have a lot yeah 77 is a tougher question i think i want to have him as a rotational piece so like 30 to 40 percent for me um but i can't go above that i also want to make sure i get some though where you got on him lower than etn i agree man it's just it's tough because look there i think i kind of want to let game stacks influence my exposure this week like okay here i have a kua tyreek team and i'm gonna adjust or i'm gonna signify this one is a raider seahawks game stack go from there i think i i kind of want to let it be that way more so than like okay i feel great like because like i think they're all kind of in the same tier so just make sure just make your game your line as as game stacky as possible and let that kind of dictate where you go so where does that put you on wilson then well he's the exception because i can't stack right like and i still want to make sure i get him in there like oh i see the dolphin's roll but even but even in those stacks you are not forcing it with the texas or sorry not in wilson line it's not stacks like you're not forcing it i will not have a single texan on any roster for the rest of my life okay like in your from the state of texas not my roster hashtag not my roster where's gino from gino smith is from oh georgia okay we're good yeah i'm gonna stand fast with no texan will be on my roster love it uh okay similar trend for your second trend talking about the chiefs while leading uh because they're in a very similar setup to the dolphins tougher matchup but not a an unexploitable one what are you seeing with this cheese offense yes it's similar because i think my homes is like i can't fail play because again if like the the rams keep it closed somehow he's gonna be on the field and throwing and over the long term that's gonna pay off uh but if they do cash in on being big favorites probably not gonna necessarily just gonna be on the ground so i think that my homes is really appealing but yeah 14 and a half point spread you don't typically love to see it um but the i think their main path for the rams to keep this one close is by being able to run on the chiefs because the chiefs will actually do that that just the rams can't run the ball so that's it feels like this one's just destined to be a blowout but yeah the chiefs lead the nfl and pass rate over expectation at a plus 12.4 percent they're the only team in double digits currently since the bills kind of fell off in recent weeks they double up all teams but one for the full season went up by at least eight the chiefs have a pass rate over expectation of plus 11.4 percent a raw pass rate of 52 percent they just you know they run plays with leads we did see the chiefs go a bit run heavy in week 11 against the chargers but and you can run on the chargers the chiefs were really late with pass catchers the last catterius tony in game that has to impact the game plan but i don't really see how this this team goes super run heavy in this spot i don't think they need to last week without juju smith shuster we saw travis kelsey lead with 10 targets which was 32 percent three touchdowns of course sky more was next with a 19 target share on a 40 percent route rate don't love that uh to be sticky because you want the route rate to be higher justin watson and marquez vowed as scantling had a 13 percent target share notably though watson had a 97 percent route rate which is not nothing he's kind of a fun player i think that's appealing if there's no juju um you know we don't have a good sample of this team without uh both juju smith shuster and michael hardman because juju left early in week 10 but you know in that game jerick mckinnon 23 target share uh kelsey 20 um tony was at 14 but now hurt mvs 11 so look we can go at kelsey as much as we can stomach it as much as we can actually get there really no salary too high for him but like sky more at 54 watson at 5000 i think can give us salary relief for whenever we do want to play patrick mahomes if juju plays he would be a love for me at 66 yeah um how high are you on the chiefs and specifically how do you view them compared to the dolphins because they're pretty similar this week i prefer the dolphins because they're facing a worse team but the spread is like the same so like they can get the same amount of pushback but a softer defense on the opposing side so i prefer the dolphins with that said the chief salaries are pretty affordable um i agree that you were juju would be a love if he were good to go the only like only like different take i have is on watson because if we get a situation where they're down tony and juju his routes will stay the same he's not a big like target earner he has earned a target on 16 of his routes so far this year whereas sky more is a 21 so an increase routes is more impactful for sky more than justin watson uh more is at 1.7 yards for route one watson 1.5 so i'd rather go to sky more by a pretty decent margin over watson if we i don't know if i'll get to watson at all honestly um but i can get to sky more if there's no juju if there's juju i feel like you have two target earners out there in kelsey and juju that makes it tougher for more to separate from the the pack so i think for me i like i agree that watson's actually a pretty interesting player i think he's he's funny he's athletic he's a he's an interesting player i just don't know if i'll get there because he's not going to get a role change necessarily whereas sky more will get a role change if those guys are out yeah i mean a to clarify i love sky more and you're you like him a lot like in the draft so yeah yeah and i prefer yeah i prefer him to watson i just saying watson also is is relevant if you're okay um you know taking a chance on someone who has a very very low floor but could you know open up a lot of 5000 for someone who's gonna run you know 90 plus percent of the routes um yeah one question for you does your view of the texan's offense change with kyle allen just being in the starter for the texan's offense uh i can't get worse right i don't think i'm gonna get any better but i'm gonna get better but yeah i think no i don't just had to had to ask i didn't really have to ask i should say but figured i would okay so we're on the cheese their salary is very affordable even like the studs in my homes in kelsie we can get to this week oh pacheco got to ask oh yeah uh go ahead no i was gonna ask you uh are you are you trying to get to kelsie in your single entry lineup like your main lineup no okay it's not because i dislike kelsie it's because i really like andrew's and really like tasim and i think they'll be a lower roster than kelsie yeah so it's not an anti kelsie it's a pro andrew's hill thing yeah for sure right now pacheco i think i like him more than rachad white is that bad i don't think it's bad it might be bad because the reason i like him is because i have and this is this is a dumb thought process i'm telling you again do as i say not as i do um i keep thinking back to alvin kamera's rookie year where they had adrian peterson cut him and that trimmed the backfield from three guys to two in the two weeks they played without with ceh basically not playing pacheco has had a hundred yards in one game and i think 80 something in the second game hasn't had any targets but he hasn't been running routes and we know how past heavy the cheese are in early downs so even if pacheco just plays early downs he's probably going to stumble into some passing game work he did have a wheel route that he ran on sunday night so that's in his uh his bag of tricks ten rides on sunday uh and mckinnon was at 15 so it's not like it was right you know it's like he didn't run any routes right so i think pacheco is very interesting he's very trappy as well so because white has a better matchup i think his floor might be higher but i think pacheco if he wants if there wasn't being a big discrepancy between roster rates between those two guys i think pacheco would be pretty fun for tournaments i kind of coin flip them i see the case for both i mean white started against seattle i don't think that they have any reason to ride Leonard for net correct so i'm honestly are they the same because let he is just jerry mckinnon except thicker well like what i mean white had a 37% route rate in week 10 true Leonard you know for net i know was banged up but yeah it's not like he did lose some work to kishan vaughn um that's a last-ditch effort that's a look as someone who also likes kishan vaughn they don't want to play kishan vaughn i know that they did they don't want to they don't want to though they did it so but i think the chiefs want to play jerry mckinnon in passing game work i think that they kind of had to play kishan vaughn and week 10 sometimes on on five snaps you're saying i like both yeah i like both too okay let's move now to my second trend and talk about a game that i've alluded to a couple times that's titans bangles my numbers kind of like this game they kind of like the over and i'm not opposed not really going to push back on that the bangles side should be pretty obvious they get your marches back that benefits everyone in terms of efficiency would reduce t higgins target share but we've seen him blow up and gains the chase before too so who cares honestly helps mix into because just a better offense uh his target projection would go down but i think they'd be sick and they're better than perception i think the titans are too tana helps him back for two games now and in those two games the passing offense as exceeded expectations on early downs passing by 0.20 and 0.28 that's a pretty wide margin above expectations they've been is that point is that like per player is that success rate per drop back okay uh any any p per play okay gotcha any people drop back or should well you've been doing success rate stuff i just because success rate on late downs okay but those numbers if that if that's not expected points is sick yeah that's sick uh they've been 0.20 or better in five of eight games that tana has started this year it's absurd they're also the above average team on late downs in terms of success rates neither defense here is what we really need to fear the bangles 15th by my numbers tennessee is lower because they do struggle in early downs they're very good in late downs like one of the best teams of football in late downs but uh not as good in early downs so there is some shootout potential here pace is disappointing which is keeping a little bit of my on my enthusiasm but and that's not gonna be enough to put me on tana hill uh i want to make that very clear but i can't get behind treylaunberg's 22 target share and two games since he came back seven targets per game he had two deep targets last week he had a red zone target both those games turned last week's into 111 yards uh the bangles allowing the fifth highest adot in the league so far this year berks might be one of my favorite plays in the slates across any position at any salary also on darry canary uh he showed last week that the low snap rates were not really a cause for concern just kind of guessing keeping him healthy and he was awesome in that packers game we did the salary to get there uh via the value backs i don't mind having both berks and henry in the same lineup either i think that's totally fine for this team so overall i think this game is fun it's super live for many stacks to the point where i actively want to seek them out in order to be different am i too high on this game uh i don't think so um i guess with the stacking component now i'm going back to to p ryan i probably stacked this game more frequently than i would like the browns than in bucks wind is very bad there so that would probably push my actual exposure level higher to p ryan than to rishad white sure so i'm just trying to i mean look usually we have an extra day to prepare for this so do a lot more thinking there's a bit more on the fly but now i think it's a good game i think you can stack it in a lot of different ways i think berks is in the conversation for the best play at salary i agree he's got 2.76 yards per route run over the past two games which is pretty disgusting um and that's with a 7.40 at a dot again you know he can get downfield work we've we've seen that but he's he's like creating after the catch uh which is what he did in college too so it's not out of character yeah so like he was a slot guy in college so like it was weird because like he's huge but they like just give him like these little bunny targets and he just go bananas yeah so i think berks again we mentioned that like floor is not real in in dfs but like floor is lava as always he he should be able to get both the downfield work and the short targets which makes it his a dot kind of not a typical a dot so right i think berks is great i want to get to derrick henry i don't know how often i'm going to be able to do it um i don't know if i'm playing henry outside of like i i would need bring backs if i want to play derrick henry so i gotta make sure i can do that but another spot where henry p-rind stacks so stacking running backs yeah same as we saw with uh las vegas in seattle i think that that's viable so no i don't think you're too high on the scheme at all where are you in the bangles now that we know chase is not not a lock to play but more likely to play than we thought um like will you use joe burrow at $8600 i probably should consider it i agree uh he's got a sick ceiling despite being just just a pocket passer but now that i'm looking at this he's got four rushing touchdowns yeah four rushing touchdowns in the past six games which uh it's not super sticky but yeah um we know that he can uh torch pretty much any defense um i'll trust you and and thinking that the titans defense a bit overstated but they're good but they're not avoid level i still at this point don't have a an idea who my lock button quarterback is when i'm building a single lineup it honestly might depend on the rest of my lineup i always i always put in quarterback first i'm gonna have a hard time doing that this week but burrow in the consideration especially if we get chase back and we we find out that he's not just limited in practice like all week yeah like if we get a shifty tweet at 11 i'll say 11 34 saturday night saying that chase is gonna play i'll use burrow i'm in i think where would he rank for you at quarterback probably okay so i'm gonna well i'd probably still go with lamar over him yeah is that dumb i don't think there's a right answer at this on wednesday i think he'd be in the two a tier well but same tears lamar so i think he's in the top tier if we get him with chase i think mohomes is the only guy who i have in his own tier okay a little bit lower on mohomes personally i know because you're a hater but sorry i feel so bad that you would call me up mohomes hater i'm just saying man i don't know i have the salary to get there uh this team just throws the ball um i'll talk into mohomes by the end of it so last week he had 329 passing yards which was his lowest since october 10th he has no fewer than 235 in any game he has six with 300 yards what an animal no fewer than 34 attempts in any game you know the rams don't generate pressure yeah they stink mohomes from a clean pocket 120.5 quarterback rating i'm shocked it's not higher to be fully honest 73 completion rate 23 touchdowns three picks 0.46 epa per dropback which is three times the nfl average from a how lucky are we get to watch this guy like how lucky are we this is great like i people complain about like having repeat teams and island games which i understand but i'm never going to complain about watching patrick mohomes like it's annoying not telling on a main slate but like sunday i had a bad dfs day it made my day so much better i got to sit down and watch patrick mohomes play football so i actually don't mind that much and like with the past catcher injuries like he's still yeah just he's sick okay we're not going to talk whether here i will say though early look is there is some pretty bad wind in a lot of east coast games shocker so i would recommend checking wind sunday morning before we finalize your lineups to check on that because it doesn't matter quite a bit we saw that with lamar last week my sentiment on him changed entirely once i saw there was big wind there so make sure you check back on wind to see how that may alter things let's now go position by position and break down our favorite place for this week over on fan duel starting off a quarterback with you brandon talk me into sir patrick yeah i basically just read off my my notes here uh to you just now but again no fewer than 34 attempts in any game uh 600 yard games uh i have the rams last and pressure rate according to next gen stats uh mohomes again from a clean pocket just incredible um i have value at running back there are a lot of different ways i can go with it but look you don't want to just like game log watch for performance but look back through it mohomes and really find me since since week three like disappointing games from him there really exists this team is just so past heavy that he's going to be efficient and i'm good with it um i i think that like in our head to head i'm going to play my home's against you i'm going to find a way to get there okay my second love kind of a toss up uh i don't really have a firm take i think justin herbert is appealing at 79 i don't know that could be dumb is it dumb no okay i just like the hesitancy it makes me look i love herbert um he's finally the salaries back down under 8 000 um already lost mike williams just immediately and mike williams face on the sideline was my face because i was just waiting for mike williams to come back but i think there's so a big ceiling um in this game on against the card was on a short week they're an average pass defense that's good for herbert um arizona does kind of cap downfield passing and herbert started slinging it a bit more um this past week but he's already been working with aloe dot for a lot of the season still putting up 273 yards per game 1.6 touchdowns uh keen now in eckler they can get yards after the catch herbert can get some rushing um i think in game stacks he's he's very fun and so i think i'm kind of solidifying my take on my home's where if i can't find a second guy that i absolute absolutely adore uh i must i must love my home's more than i realize that's fair uh with herbert he has run more a bit the past two weeks too looks like the ribs fully healed so that can be a good thing for him i'm not as high on him but um i get wired there my first love is to a tongue of aloe the dolphins still very past heavy while leading as we discussed the efficiency here should be just bananas there aren't a lot of high upside guys in the sleep but we see that from tua this year so $83 very fair i don't have my typical i know you're right sorry not a lot of high upside guys in competitive games on this no no no sorry i i i i made a face at something else down the list what what no what what did you think that i made the face at uh that i said there weren't a lot of high upside quarterbacks in the slate there are but they're all they all we can all like we can nitpick every single one of them to a degree would you make a face at like you don't have so much to be right in your loves and i thought you were like gonna because i don't know mix is gonna play fight me through the computer because mixin might play i'm just saying if if mixin doesn't play i like pirine okay we'll get there i just what are you talking about i figure you just assume at that point these these are not like the loves are not like hypotheticals if these are like yeah yeah i like this guy i'm gonna use lamar jackson my second love at quarterback um i think this game is as long as the wind stays muted which is it's like okay right now i think this game goes over 43 and a half uh the passing office to the ravens has struggled but they're seventh and only down passing efficiency so far mark andrew's another week healthier hopefully development better rapport with uh to marcus robinson with no workshop bateman this jag's defense when we can exploit shish i know you were right about the market robinson and it only took seven years baby yeah i finally had more than 50 yards in the game for the first time since like i was born so yeah i like lamar uh this week hoping the wind stays down i i want to go back to him because we know bananas games are within his range of outcomes i should like lamar more than herbert i agree let's go to running back what you got there kenneth walker 84 uh vegas is kind of average uh in terms of rushing defense but i have him 29th and adjusted fandal points per target allowed to running backs since taking over the lead role 76 percent snap rate 26.4 adjusted opportunities per game almost 90 percent of red zone rushes which sounds wrong but this is sick um 106 yards per game uh from scrimmage 0.63 rushing yards over expectation per carry he's very good i want non-quarterback access to that game i'm like i'm not against gino but i just think that the salary is too close to the guys that i would rather rearrange myself uh line i'm not gs what i'm not gs as opposed to gno well i love rashad white as well at 64 um i have a note in here i don't know jim's thinking i like pyrrha and if there's no vixen um but rashad white very interesting started already in week 10 against seattle so i don't think it's just contingent on hyping up like Leonard fornette being injured white in that game 22 carries 105 yards in the ground no targets but a 37 percent route rate 65 percent of snaps faces the browns who get torched on the ground by everyone and you know we see like post buy rookie surges happen i think that that's what we're gonna get uh from rashad white here and my third love antonio gibson i know i've like we've mentioned trail and berks being probably my favorite play like at salary but it's antonio gibson i might have more gibson than anyone um it was kind of trending toward like i would just lock button gibson in we have enough value backs where i might not do that but he's my favorite of all the value plays uh showed a lot last week with the two-thirds snap rate while in positive script the falcons are 25th and success rate allowed to running backs below average uh and adjusted fandal points per target allowed to backs as well um since week nine with no mckissik 14.3 carries three targets under 70 scrimmage yards per game which i don't love but the the workload last week was a lot better um and uh 57 red zone rushing chair last week so i think that this is just a spot where i play a lot of gibson maybe not as high as i was monday but still higher on him than the other guys yeah we got a question about gibson on youtube from william asking about you know why him when he's sharing the backfield with gibson or with uh with murray or uh with robinson i know i got to like 16 different guys um the reason is last week last week was huge for gibson because like you said they were in a positive script and gibson played two-thirds of the snaps first half snap rate for gibson was 71 he played 29 of 41 plays so when it was closer he played 71 snap rate in the second half even when they were up for the entire game 16 of 26 snaps so 62 the second half alone you mentioned the red zone rush share uh the red zone overall share four to nine red zone chances went to antonio gibson so that's why i'm super super high at him and i agree with what you said um and william was asking about latavius murray talking about touch road equity there i just don't expect the broncos score as many points as washington so that's that's the reason for there so it's a good question i i would if you had told me william last week that i would be talking up antonio gibson without a robinson injury i would have been like your nuts don't do this but i think last week actually did tangibly change the way i view him so that's the explanation there my first love at running back is etn i also do like jeff wilson in this range i like kenneth walker sorry big kent runner i like him a lot as well but etn is the best sourd piece in the jag side of this game and i want to stack it baltimore ranks 18th against the rush on early downs after adjusting for schedule they're pretty good at late downs but the jags move the sticks before they get to third and fourth down pretty often which is fun uh huge fan of that i thought the goal in their offense was to get into third and manageable that's what i heard um so the jags the jags giving double barreled freedom rockets double barrel middle fingers to uh for everyone who's trying to get third and manageable everyone says that 120 yards and scrimmage per game free tian is laid back with a 49 percent red zone share i think his red zone share his red zone rule is underrated so like that what don't talk about how likely they are to get there that game is going over jag scoring 38 points when they score their 38th point sunday apologize to me send me an apologize apology tweet on twitter i'll send you an apology ask jim after they score the 38th point not before not after after they score their 38th point sure thank you good okay uh other loves to be a running back i do like git and i want to talk about rishad white briefly you talked about him too but uh 22 carries 105 yards in week 10 he should have a good early down roll even if Lenny does want it being active the browns as you mentioned hideous against the rush freaking the chargers were good against them as a rushing offense and they're the worst rushing offense i've seen my entire life outside of like last year's dolphins i guess um but like the dolphins ran on them this year too so there's some wind in this game but i i do like rishad white i will mention isai apacheco as well 95 yards per game in two games with minimal ceh he's gonna get some routes if he's playing early downs as well it's kind of naturally because of how heavy past heavy they are 63 to dollars i think his most likely script is where they're ahead by a lot so i actually do think he benefits from a positive script so i like pacheco if i had a rank go ahead let's hypothetical no mix in so we have p ron available sure what three running backs are you playing in your in your top lineup uh likely pacheco likely gibson likely etm okay because i'll probably have lamar as my quarterback and i'll meet him as a bring back most likely you find a guess receiver what you got oh actually what what are your three uh good gibson probably coin flip between white and pacheco and then walker okay cool p ron i would still use a quite a bit but i'd probably wouldn't be on him in that specific lineup i probably might mean lineup i don't think yeah i'd probably get a like a berks bengal's receiver stack if i can but or maybe i'd go berks p ride i don't know we'll see uh receiver what you got there uh dk metcalf um if i'm gonna play you know one to two uh value running backs i need to make sure that my guys have upside i love the most weeks i love like the seven thousand range of receiver because those are the guys who have tangible ceilings but don't hit them as often or haven't hit them recently as the guys with salaries in the eight to nine thousand range but metcalf definitely has it excluding a game replay just 25 percent of the snaps he has a team high 27 target share 40 percent air yard share it's just a better overall workload than what tyler lockett has 40 red zone share 54 percent of the end zone targets as well so i love metcalf this week i also love debo samuel at 6900 i think he's just under salaried there is some potential for him to lose out on touchdowns just because only so many guys can score touchdowns in a single game but three and a half carries seven and a half targets per game with mccaffrey and mitchell both playing so still getting rushing work even with both of those backs in the fold again catch rate over expectation of minus 12.4 percent the past two games so you can say what you want about the quarterback play that's probably gonna bump up because a lot of his targets are you know shorter a dot um 73 scrimmage yards per game you know had some cramping issues on monday as well which shouldn't last but also probably cap some of his uh production and numbers there then third love as as expected trail on berks 5900 showed a lot last week eight targets which was a 20 or 29.6 percent share so round up to 30 on 21 routes but that works out to a target per route rate of 38 percent uh i dug back there's there's been 27 games this season by a receiver with at least a 38 percent target per route rate from guys with at least 20 routes so yeah there are volume concerns but a he is getting targets when he's out there and b a lot of reason to expect him to run more routes especially if that game is fun so you know many buy as well uh coming off of that thursday game so you think that the arrow's up for rookie uh and trail on berks 5500 berks is my third love too for this the reasons you mentioned 5900 dollars uh i think this offense is pretty fun i want to get exposure that game he's my favorite route for exposure there i do want to get to henry but berks is my favorite route unless we get p ryan i might go p ryan over berks but i would just probably have a lot of bull to be fully honest my first love is devante adams because i've got the salary to get there for once and i want to get there i'd rank him above tyreek hill if you were going to ask about that um i'd prefer him over tyreek uh devante 32 target share uh 43 percent of the deep work and 34 percent in the red zone for the full season he's at 13.5 targets per game in two games without waller and ren fro the seattle defense has played well a ton this year but not one i fear so i can stack this game i would like to and i will with devante adams being a key part of that keenon allen is my number two love came back to eight targets on the snap count last week 94 yards in that game he had a huge target share before his injury in week one two like every play on their first drive went to keenon allen effectively the cardinals just lost their top cornerback due to injury he comes in at 73 and a dollars i've not always been a keenon allen guy i will be for this week i think that allen uh makes a lot of sense so my three devante adams keenon allen and trail on berks i'm firmly on team old or team rookie or gcfo for this week tight end what you looking at there obviously love travis kelsey but i think andrew's mark angers is a great play at 7300 a nine hundred dollar gap between the two goes a long way um it's really hard to kind of build around like um the homes in kelsey stack unless you go with two value backs so i think that naturally i'm going to be um having a bit more andrew's and get exposure to other other chiefs i will stack pacheco in my homes and get access to a lot of the work and then anything that mckinnon gets out of the backfield we'll just go to my homes but um angers has a 25 target sharing his return last week for downfield targets jack wires below average against tight ends it's just a good process play to pivot two tight ends who are studs who are not necessarily getting a ton of attention um i don't really love a whole lot of other tight ends aside from kelsey angers and you can talk more about tason hill well you have kelsey or andrew's in your um single entry yeah i'll find ways to get there okay it's hard for me to pass up there that opportunity whenever i have multiple value backs yep because i think they're just i think and i know statistically they're so much more likely to have good games yep but if i can't get there and i can't even get up to like tason hill i think david and joku is at least appealing at 56 he can get yardage most tight ends can't um the return last week not really phenomenal but he was limited in practice all week had a 43 route rate on just 18 targets uh three uh or sorry 18 18 routes which was 43 three targets but did include a downfield look um it could blow up in my face if he's still limited but i want to track the practice report for in joku um and that's just a you know a spot that i i would play in joku if i really needed to yeah i think a joku is my favorite lower salary guy um if we're talking like if we're talking below tason i'd probably go george kittle above him but if we're talking below six thousand dollars i can't find anybody to really put above right i at least wanted to have someone yeah down here so it's gonna be spend up though uh so mark andrew's also my first love 32 target share in three games of that were shot bateman his salary is down to 73 to dollars like a 32 target share a tight end should be eight thousand salary probably somewhere around there um last week didn't produce but there was a ton of wind in that game he hasn't had double digit fandal points since october 16th which i think that'll ensure that he is minimally rostered so i love mark andrew's i am almost positive he'll be in my single entry lineup uh my like first one if i've got one it'll probably be in it if not a probably be tason hill uh he played 17 snaps a quarterback last week he played two at running back one at tight end one in the slot and three out wide he ran five routes he had nine rush attempts and three pass attempts he played just two of 11 snaps inside the red zone but that obviously could have been a lot better uh so his floor stakes his floor is zero i think that's worth mentioning but also every stupid every tight end other than kelsey is right now is basically zero yeah so just take the guy who is a path of 30 and tason hill has that so he's he's the only guy i think on the slate who has a 90th percentile outcome as good as kelsey or andrew's maybe not 90th on their level but like somewhere near theirs so can i can i interest you in any case in hell this week uh i will say i had him on my season long teams not that anyone cares but i dropped them and i was i i felt worried and i was able to get him back oh good i feel good well i probably tells me that i am that probably tells me that i should want to have some taste in hell this week i think he's a good play like if i can get a fourth player on my team who has the potential to get nine rush attempts pretty sweet pretty sweet okay defense let me let me hear it i got the panthers um the broncos depleted on offense they can't score points they've not scored points all season carolina's eighth and pressure rate they're pretty scrappy right now they like one of the misnomers i think with like pro sports is these guys only care about the money but like some people just want to win and like look like they they care and you know pride yeah i'm not saying it's exactly the same and i know there was win but you said the opposing team doesn't have that held the held the ravens to 13 points last week i don't see how the broncos do much of anything uh russ has a 9.6 percent sack rate the nfo average being 6.8 percent the odds that like denver goes for 40 and there's no like we get like negative points here it seems less than zero i like the other side of that game a lot uh the bronc i think both sides of this game are great i might not use a defense outside of this game um the broncos are 39 as well uh they are facing sand darnold who might be an upgrade but also we've seen sand darnold like his has a rookie i called him james darnold because of like the the dumb stuff he does that's probably not gone so and james darnold is also offensive to james now so sorry james i will retract the nickname uh but he just makes some dumb mistakes and the broncos defense is one of the best in the league so i might just stick to this game uh i don't like using defenses in games of low totals but i think here given how mistake prone both offenses have been it's not not as bad as it typically would be yeah it's you know first like some betting purposes i just try to simplify things at this point of like how how do these teams put up points against these like two viable you know two different degrees defenses i don't know how you regret playing the broncos defense i would also say the dolphins defense at 44 against kyle allen is enticing um their defense is doggie do but that doesn't matter that much so i don't mind the dolphins at 44 don't mind the commanders at 43 so a lot of options around 39 if you want to get off uh differentiate from this game a bit but i also don't feel a super huge need to do so okay we've talked through the slates any final thoughts for you having discussed literally everything there is to discuss on this slate um there's probably gonna be like a game that just is less popular than others jaguars or since intense yeah so you know uh some of the better scoring like some of the better project is scoring offenses or in their big spreads so i still think that those those teams can put up points um and worry about them as a bit overstated but if you want to stack some games we have some fun ones there's a lot of good ways to play this game to play this site so william if you can't talk yourself into tonia gibson you don't have to use it you've got other options out there i think that's the liberating thing about this site is you can trust your gut and still be right because there are a lot of ways to play this so dig into the expected workload of these guys uh dig into injuries again sunday morning look at the wind familiarize yourself with what might have changed since we talked and hopefully uh go win yourself some cash on sunday that's all that we have here for today for listening on uh wednesday or thursday want to check out our thanksgiving podcast again that is up both in the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed and on the fandal youtube page go get that and hit subscribe wherever you are consuming this podcast brandon people have questions for you on twitter where can they find you there on twitter ackadol 13 gd ula 13 and i am on twitter at jim sodas j i m s a n n e s a happy thanksgiving to you brandon happy thanksgiving to everyone listening as well safe travels have fun enjoy it we'll talk to you all once again monday to wrap it all up this has been the heat jack fantasy podcast powered by number fire