 Hello everybody, welcome back. So today just like the thumbnail and title suggests we're gonna take a look at Fed rates as The CPI and CP in course CPI came out and we're gonna take a look at a parallel between 2019 And of course now as we took a look at the Fed rates as they were being raised back then and what happened in that time frame as We went into a Bitcoin 3 to 4x and also recession So let's just jump right in now as everybody knows I think everybody's already heard if you're on Twitter or if you're on YouTube If you have any social media presence and you're interested in this, you know that CPI came out and Actually not too bad. I mean there was an expectations of 3.6, but we had 3.7 So, you know people some people are freaking out some people like it's not a big deal Some people say this is the end. I'll be all I don't really see this is that much of a thing I do think that the Fed will slow down and they will pause it will continue that in November But in all honesty might take a look at some like, you know The Fed's doing his job I know some people a lot of people don't like drone power But in all honesty if we take a look all the way back in October, we're at 7 7 I mean they cut it in half and it took a while But I mean just look how how long it had to do in the 70s and 80s with Volcker when they got to inflation out of control They let it get out of control because of the prior chair, which was burns So I think they're doing the things that they're supposed to do now Of course they're gonna break stuff and that's when they'll pivot and that's when we'll have of course Session but these are things that we have now if we want to dig deep into the numbers, which I really don't I had linked this In the description, this is the variable labor statistics and you just see that you know food and energy Actually energy wasn't was actually a negative point five Food was one of the big contributing factors and then there was some negativity as far as used cars Down eight new vehicles up 2.5. And of course everything across the board and shelter Was one of the big ones at 7.2. There's nuances to that. I'm not gonna get into it It's just that's it is what it is and again just looking at this across a continuum of time The Fed was facing out in June 2020 to the rate of inflation of 9.1 percent and again They did a pretty good job now back here same thing happened in 2005 2006 and of course when we had the Great recession They were cutting rates and they were trying to do the best they could do and what really helped them out this little gray area That's a recession. I think it's gonna happen again I think that's what's going to save the bacon of the Fed But time will tell so again if we break this down into the CPA and we steal from Ben site into the cryptoverse Actually, this doesn't look right. We're gonna do year over year Percentages, right? Okay, and then I will leave the the S&P five No, I don't want let's just do crypto and put it into Bitcoin. It's what I like about the site You can do whatever you want to you can put, you know overlay different factors You can do a workbench and overlay other things anyhow CPI difference Last month 3.71 3.69. So yeah, and then we take a look at core CPI if we strip out energy and food Again, this isn't right year over year percentage let's do Crypto to Bitcoin again, why not? And core CPI in actuality Whoops year over year it is doing pretty well. So we strip out energy and food oil going crazy, I think 4.7 in July 4.39 in August and then now we're at 4.1. So look Positive things in the horizon. That's great. Everybody's happy, but this is why you're here You're here because of this title and this thumbnail that I sent out or maybe you just here because you like to hang out and Do the Q&A and we talk all those things whatever it is This is the good stuff. So this is when we take a look at history history Of course is not perfect, especially in finance It has a certain rhythm and it's not gonna be 100% accurate But like they say history does run and here's the information we have so Fed policy mech policy makers Have been offering a dovish respite on Tuesday Atlanta Fed bank presidents Rafael Bostek and Minneapolis Fed president Neil Koshkari Both of them said I didn't know Koshkari said this but both of them said that the central bank may not need to raise Rates further again, it's the same thing in the FOMC minutes But they said the exact same thing now at some point they're gonna have to raise again or they're gonna have to pivot But it's not gonna be in November not sure about December, but this is pretty good news especially for the markets The feds previous rate cycle which ran for three years Saw rates peak at two and a half percent in December 2018 I had totally forgot about that probably because I wasn't paying attention back then so I really was barely getting into crypto in 2017 I didn't really care about the Fed rates or anything like that because I wasn't a big situation for me now I think everybody knows about the Fed race Fed rates and core CPI and CPI numbers and everybody's Reason names in the Fed reserve because we are in that type of market This was following which the central bank adopted a wait and watch mode for seven months. So in 2018 They did a little stay and there was a wait and watch mode as they looked at the data Bitcoin bottom out in December 2018 and then rose the 13,880 by the end of June Reflecting back at 2019 the Fed concluded its rate hiking cycle in under seven month pause during this period Bitcoin experience dramatic rally blah blah blah, so I was looking at this and I never believe anybody I never like I'm like, well, that sounds good, but let's take a look at it and in all honesty The the month of October what were we supposed to be? Rectember and then October well it has been so far now there was atrocities being committed in the Middle East Horrible situation over there. I'm not a geopolitical analyst I'm not going to weigh in on that you can if you want to debate that or have something just go to Twitter There's a lot of geniuses and experts over there that became experts overnight. I'm not that guy I can just tell you that the market right now is down a little bit negative And of course if we take a look at what the probabilities are for raising rates next month, which would be the first in November for the next Fed meeting is Everybody's pricing in as it's not going to happen. Does that mean we go the opposite way not for sure But the data is pointing that they're going to have a pause and no pivot and no raise So again, if we take a look at this that article we took a look at in 2018 How they are raising rates and moving forward Actually, I'm gonna blow this whole thing up because I want to talk about recessions and the Fed funds rate So let's just go from let's call it back in Want to go 90 yeah, why not Look at this. This is the federal funds rate and they kind of got it right Well, they didn't get it right in the first time first time around in 1990 Of course going back in the 80s and I could go go all the way down there But you can see the Fed the federal funds rate. It was elevated elevated. They dropped off a little bit and They were supposed to pivot But then they kind of screwed everything up and this little gray area is a recession So they actually were raising rates in the recession And it was a bad one back in the early early 90s And of course once they figured out like wow recession and they dropped off same thing happened over here But I didn't they got it right a little better. They're raising rates Inflation was becoming out of control Fed rates went up and they said whoops I think we did something wrong and then they pivoted and then here comes the recession and the dot-com era All right, then of course it dropped down and they did okay. We're after the recession. We're good We're gonna cut rates and then inflation went up again. Let's raise some rates did the same thing it flattens out You know like whoops, we broke something and then of course that's when we had the great recession All the problems with the housing and whatnot and of course you had a recession right here and now what they talked about I'll blow this up even more so we can see a little better Yeah, I mean in 2017 The Fed funds rate was going up I totally forgot and We can see it over time federal funds rate. I mean was it was essentially zero right essentially zero. Nothing was happening, but inflation must been getting a little bit a little bit elevated so they started to raise and raise and raise and What do I have this is the S&P 500. Let's get this out of here. Let's put on Crypto, let's put on Bitcoin. I think that's more relevant to us, right? And we could see that even though the rates are being raised There was still a Slight amount of quantitative easing going on. I you know what I need to do is we're gonna over the M2 money supply at some point And you see that here we go and then of course it drops off and then every cycle will so far Dependent I guess not not this one I could say is that usually a year after the all-time high which in 2013? Took about a year to hit the the all-time low for the cycle for Bitcoin 2017 took another year to an all-time low for Bitcoin. We're at almost 20,000 then we come down here to 2018 The Bitcoin price was wow 3,220 those are good days. I remember buying Bitcoin at that point other good times So anyhow, just like they talked about you have here you have here and What the Fed did as they're raising rates. They're like, you know what we should probably hold off a second And let's just pause They paused Fuzz rate was 2.4. They kind of just looked at the data, which is what they're saying now They're gonna like they're saying we're gonna look at the data and make sure everything's good if if you know if Inflation starts to go up go up of course CPI CPI starts to increase We will do our best to raise rates and make things sticky and hopefully of course they want to crush the labor market I don't want to crush the labor market. So I want to do But then here we go and then Bitcoin itself over that time Everything kind of settles down and then what happens? Actually wasn't a 3x it was a Well, roughly three and a half back somewhere on there. So I'm from 3,200 All it's almost 12,000. That's pretty good. And then with the funds rate they go, maybe we broke something and Then they Pivoted and they came over here and said now we didn't do it and they came down And this is where the indecisiveness kind of causes for for Bitcoin, but I Will remind everybody of that even though we had a nice monstrous rally That's the whole point of this of this video talking about it You will notice that around here. There was a recession And that recession was caused by the surveys of virus, right? And then at that point and the feds like we really screwed up or whatever happened with this virus However, got loosened if it was it, you know some kind of lab in China Which I think but whatever Then they Reduced the rates they pivoted and down it went and then of course we know what happens Quantity reason came out and the Bitcoin went up But it is interesting though that at this same point where we are the Fed is is pausing We could see how Bitcoin could potentially go up now right now It's not doing that because of the instability and the unknowns that are happening in the Middle East But I have to wonder if it wasn't for that and the Fed was pausing Where will we be at right now and I will say That even though the atrocities are happening right over there and it is awful is bad It seems like when we get into these wars It's always the worst case scenario in the beginning and then all of a sudden this time goes on people like that It's not that big and then things kind of slow down look what happened you guys remember when Russia invaded Ukraine It was like the worst thing of all time and it was gonna be of course World War three now. It's the same thing here That's happening in the Middle East. I'm not gonna weigh into it I'm just saying that it's always seems like it's it's the worst time and could it be World War three Yeah, it could I have no idea what's gonna happen, but when I take a look at him like I See the parallels of what's happening and I see that What could effectively happen in the future but right now if things do calm down I could see some Positivity coming forward So let me know what you think about that in the comment section It's just a little little piece about how things start to keep repeating and repeating and rhyming and rhyming And if we still see what the Fed just doing this, maybe we could see a little bit of a rally All right, so that is that for that piece and then lastly think lastly. Yeah, no deal Q&A I want to make this this short cuz we were doing like the last three or four days has been very long Streams as a reminder Today is the 12th Yeah, the 12th tomorrow is the cutoff day to enter for the sweat coin giveaway I'm giving away a hundred thousand sweat coin They are it's gonna be 20 people five thousand They'll get 20 people will get five thousand sweat coin and you also there'll also be 10 NFTs up for grabs All you got to do is a link in the description very it's at the top on Twitter follow me in sweat economy comment below and retweet and then enter the form right here And that's it and I'll draw them on Saturday October 14th The cutoff is tomorrow night at 2359 UTC. I don't know where that is for you But I'm just letting you know so if you want to get in on that and there's 20 winners Actually 30 actually there's 30 winners because 20 winners get 5,000 sweat coin Then you get 10 with the NFTs. Please do so and also I know people are like well You know how to sweat coin work. There's a link in the description for the deep dive I'm super biased in this project because I own a bunch of it. So that should be not a surprise to anybody but They are parting up with orderly. I thought I was interesting is orderly is a it's a DeFi platform trading infrastructure and They're going to allow it looks like on the wallet which will be available to me as a US citizen on the 17 Is that they're going to allow for swaps within their wallet? I guess in a DeFi protocol way and you can use sweat coin for near Near for ETH and then down here. It's hard to see but Euro for sweat coin and Looks like there's an on and off ramp the thing I'm thinking of and I'm gonna have these guys and orderly on is Wouldn't it be cool if you could use sweat coin that you just walk and You earn the sweat coin through the app because it's a hundred percent free app Okay, I take that back. Nothing's a hundred percent free like YouTube. You still got a you still got to watch ads, right? It's the same thing with with sweat coin. You still have to watch ads and stuff like that But what if you could use the sweat coin as the gas for all the swaps that you do on Orderly now that'd be something you walk a little bit You're like, oh, I'm enough for for gas quote-unquote And then you just go walk around you got enough and then you can swap out stuff No, no, that was pretty interesting. That's it for today. So look Thanks so much for stopping by I do appreciate it. Thanks so much for stopping by I appreciate you