 The great question now is, should you get vaccinated? Or is vaccination part of some government plot? We'll reveal the truth. Scientists train for a decade or more and spend years working in their field. But what do they know? We did exhaustive research to come up with the following data. So in this data for Indiana we find that the unvaccinated accounted for 97.6% of the infections, 98.6% of the hospitalizations, and 98.7% of the deaths. And so being vaccinated is much safer. At least that's what they want you to believe. Now 9 out of 10 people accept numbers without thinking about them critically. And in this case the important thing is that the number of hospitalizations, infections, and deaths by itself tells us nothing. For example, most crimes are committed by right handers making less than $100,000 a year living in cities. Now this rather terrifying data is mitigated by the fact that most people are right handers making less than $100,000 a year living in cities. So while the number of deaths among the vaccinated are far less, so are the number of infections. One way to find the real story is to look at the ratios within a group. So our data shows that if you're unvaccinated, 16,322 out of 278,508 become hospitalized. That's 5.86%. And 5,079 out of those 16,322 die, that's 35%, for an overall death rate of 2%. So while if you're vaccinated, 226 out of 670,40 became hospitalized, that's 3.3%, and 78 out of 226 die, that's also 35%, for an overall death rate of 78 out of 67,40, 1.1%. As Abraham Lincoln said in a blog post, there are three types of lies, lies, damned lies, and statistics. Since it's on the internet, it must be true. Actually, it's statistics used to mislead. And here's the important thing. We know two things from our data. The death rate for the non-vaccinated is about 2%, and the death rate for the vaccinated is about 1.1%. And so the death rate is 0.9% more. Or the ratio of the death rates 2 to 1.1 is about 2. Or this death rate among the non-vaccinated is 82% higher. And what this means is that we can say three totally different things that cause three totally different perceptions. We could say that the death rate is only 0.9% more. Or we could say the death rate is nearly twice as high. Or we could say the death rate is 82% higher. And this leads to another important way to ferret out a conspiracy. Be suspicious of anyone who quotes a statistic without telling you how they computed the statistic. And in particular, be very suspicious of anyone who quotes a percentage without telling you how they computed it. So we still haven't gotten at the truth. The numbers show the chance a case, hospitalization, or death occurs among the vaccinated or unvaccinated. But you could choose whether to be vaccinated or not. And what this means is that what we want is actually the chance that a vaccinated or unvaccinated person contracts COVID is hospitalized or dies. Confusing these two things is so common it actually has a name. It's known as the prosecutor's fallacy. Now buried deep within the article, the eighth sentence, is the additional fact that we need, which is that 44.2% of all Hoosiers are vaccinated. One of the great secrets known only to those in the innermost circles of power, or anyone who's taken an elementary probability course, is known as Bayes' theorem. This allows us to find the information that we want. You'll have to trust me on Bayes' theorem. Or you could learn about Bayes' theorem. There's plenty of good sources online. Here's one of the best. Now if you haven't learned Bayes' theorem, the numbers that follow might seem unbelievable, so it's helpful to build some intuition. That 44.6% that are vaccinated is about half the population. So if vaccinations were ineffective, we'd expect about half the infections, hospitalizations, and deaths to occur among the vaccinated. But we're not seeing that, and since far less than half occur among the vaccinated, this means that their risk is correspondingly lower, and the risk of the unvaccinated is much greater. Well, let's see what those numbers actually are. Without going into the details, we can use Bayes' theorem to compute what's known as a likelihood ratio. In this case, we might want to know the increase in probability of infection given that a person is unvaccinated. So given our data, we know that the chance an infected person is vaccinated is 2.4%, while the chance an infected person is unvaccinated is 97.6%. Also the fraction of the population that's vaccinated, 44.2%, and the fraction of the population that is unvaccinated, 55.8%. And again, without going into the details of the computation, these numbers tell us that the unvaccinated are 32 times more likely to be infected. We could run a similar computation for the hospitalization rates. So the chance that a hospitalized person is vaccinated is 1.4%. The chance that a hospitalized person is unvaccinated, 98.6%. The fraction of the population that's vaccinated or unvaccinated doesn't change. And again, without going into the details of the computation, but they're here for anybody who wants to check them, we find that the unvaccinated are about 56 times more likely to be hospitalized. And finally, the death rates. The chance that a death is among the vaccinated is 1.3%. The chance that a death is among the unvaccinated is 98.7%. Again our vaccination rates aren't changed. We find that the unvaccinated are about 60 times more likely to die. And now what you've all been waiting for, the truth. Is there a great conspiracy behind the vaccination effort? Yes, absolutely. As the numbers definitively absolutely certainly prove beyond a shadow of a doubt. Doctors, epidemiologists, and government officials and mathematicians have organized and implemented a vast plot to minimize the risk of hospitalization and death from COVID. The truth is out there.