 Good morning book map Welcome one welcome all to the live stream. My name is Charles. I run a community called pirate traders We are a group of oh boy. We are a group of ES and NQ day traders We'd like to look at the market through the two-way auction process The two-way auction process is simply a lens with which to look at the market through It gives us it gives us a way to make sense of the sort of random moves that the market does by giving them a context That context is measuring The tug of war that happens between buyers and sellers Who's in charge? Where do they want to take the market? How successful of a job are they doing of that? That is the way the auction process works. We're just all day every day Analyzing the information that the market gives us and Trying to do our best to figure out what comes next Alright, well this morning. We've got a sort of unique event taking place that it is worth mentioning We have the contract rollover for the CME contracts so all throughout this week traders will be switching from trading the Z contract to trading the H contract and so liquidity will be moving throughout the week from the one to the other The tricky thing about these rollover periods is that the two charts are Generally not at the exact same price level. They are moving in sync with each other So if you know the Z contract moves up a tick the H contract will move up a tick and vice versa They move in sync with each other, but the number the price number where they are Will be separate that it'll be slightly different. So the last three or this one in the last two that we have had We've had this humongous difference in the prices between the two contracts on day one of that rollover Which is today. Okay, so I Looked back at When this has happened in the past the last couple of times to see what happened Well, the last two times that we had the rollover. We also created this massive move this massive what you could call a gap Right, it's not a real gap, but it is a gap from one contract to the next contract, right like a rollover gap The two previous times that we created this gap in both of those scenarios I got them up here. So this was the last one on 9 11. So we created this big gap From one contract rolling over to another and then that day the market tried to pull back and fill the gap But ended up coming back up and closing above the opening price Okay, and the market ended up not coming back to fill the gap for at least another week Okay, before it came back to fill that gap So on this day, we should have been looking at it as a gap fill and then when that momentum reversed Look at it as a rotational market, right? Once the momentum down ended We should have just seen it as rotation not been obsessed with this large gap Not been obsessed with that rollover gap. Okay, and then when I look at the time before that It's the same thing. We had a rollover on the 12th We created this big gap in the difference between the rollover and once again, we opened higher Tried to fill the gap could not fill it from there The market turned around and headed much higher and never came back for like another six months We never came back to fill that gap. Okay, so these big gaps will call them gaps I know it's not a real gap, but we'll just call it a gap these gaps as of recent history Should be treated as any other large gap. How do we think about large gaps? Large gaps often don't fill the first day So the market may try to fill the gap It may start moving in the direction of a gap fill, but it likely won't do that on the first day Okay So the next question that you're asking yourself is which contract should I be trading on right? Like I can trade the Z or I can trade the H whichever I want How do I decide when I rollover and stop trading one contract and start trading another? The general rule of thumb for most traders is to just go with whichever contract has the most liquidity on it Which today is still the Z contract. Okay, so that is generally what most people do is they just whichever one has more liquidity They trade that one for me personally Because my software the the contract that I look at the continuous contract Automatically rolls me over I go ahead and just rollover that day as well So I always start trading the new contract on the first day, which is today. Okay For that reason while I'm doing my analysis today. I'm gonna be looking at that new contract I'm gonna be looking at the H contract now I recognize it has less liquidity and so there is less information there and I'm willing to accept that for one day It might be a little bit confusing or whatever. That's fine for me I like to just stick with what I know now for the live stream. I will try to mention both contracts I'll try to switch back and forth and tell you the different numbers depending on the contract But um, but just so you know how I do it. I start trading the new contract the first day Even if it has less liquidity Okay, great. So now that we've talked about all that Let's go back and let's just do some analysis to figure out where we are and what's going on We'll do what's Jim Dalton calls the top-down approach So we will start by zooming all the way out and taking a look at some monthly charts And for the sake of this For the sake of this we're going to go with the the Z contract the old one. Okay, not the rollover new one So looking at it on the monthly chart nothing has really changed since last week when we talked Last week when we talked we said Being right here being at the upper end of what could become a balance area on the monthly, right There is really two possibilities for what could take place this month We could either fail and pull back down or we can continue this momentum and try to break out above These previous highs. Okay So far we have no information either direction It is slightly bullish that we are you know more than a week into this month And we are still holding up at the upper end But not much more information than that Let's take a look at the weekly Okay, so the weekly is showing us the excess to the upside We can see continually we have made higher highs and higher lows One week after another after another after another after another after another after another after another after another Um, but what are we starting to notice about this pattern? I'm actually going to be talking about this today in my workshop ironically Um, what are we noticing about this pattern? It is becoming an aged Trend what is an aging trend In the beginning when the market first gets momentum and it starts making a move It has a lot of momentum It has a lot of trajectory and it can really make big moves But the more distance that it travels The more it loses steam the higher that it goes When it's getting to the end of that momentum when it's getting ready to run out of steam It will often roll over and what you will see is slowly but surely The market will start making smaller and smaller candles, which you can see here These are larger candles. These are smaller candles It will make a tighter and tighter range And it will have highs that are much much closer and lows that are much much closer to each other So this right here is literally a textbook aging trend. So what does that mean? Again, we're talking about the weekly time frame right now on the weekly time frame the market still has momentum It absolutely could still keep going higher But it is starting to run out of steam. And so we want to be aware of that It can't go straight up forever It's going to run out of steam somewhere and we're getting close We can see that because we can see how that trend is aging the further that it goes So that increases the odds in my mind that if we get up here to test these previous highs Above uh, 4700 we will likely get a fail and come back down to backfill some of this excess But okay, let's zoom into the daily and look for some more information there Okay, same exact thing. So on the daily time frame We are seeing the balance in excess and the way that it works So we had all this excess we spent just a little tiny bit of time balancing it off Then we got more excess and now we have been balancing that off ever since we had a channel and then now we have this Uh, balance right here. Okay. So all of this is the market just building steam and building steam and building steam to keep going But the fact that they've had to work so hard. Look at how easy it was for them to get from here to here Very very easy Look at how easy it was for them to get from there to there Very very easy now. Look about how hard it's been to get from there to there Right the further that the market is moving The more effort the more work it's having to really push and grind and fight to bring in those buyers to keep this going So yes, they have the momentum They still have the momentum today We are opening right at an opportunity to break out of this more recent balance Which could lead to that next move of excess So they've got the momentum guys. They can keep it going But boy, is it aging right boy? Is it looking like It's getting ready to roll over soon Okay, and so I'm really keeping a close eye on what was this previous balance area high from july back here Okay, so I would say between 4700 and the highs around 47 30 right somewhere in that area That is going to be where the market is going to run out of steam and need a pullback But as of now It's still got that momentum So either chart that we look at whether we're looking at the daily chart and we're looking at the Old contract the december contract or we're looking forward at the next chart which would look like That right there both of them right now are sitting at an area for continuation of a breakout Okay, so the potential for a move higher this morning is there What could give us the momentum for that move? A gap and go So that is the market trying to fill the gap today Failing and that getting full mobile that pushes the market higher So the way that we're going to think about that is we're going to take the overnight range And we're going to think about the overnight range like it's a chop zone Like within the overnight range. We don't know Who's going to win is the momentum going to keep going? Are we going to move up to those previous highs? Are we going to keep this going for another week? Or do we need to fail pull back down give the market a chance to cool off and try again to bring in more buyers Right like we have been do we need more balance? Or can we get excess to the upside? We will know the answer to that question at the overnight high or the overnight low Anything between it anything below the overnight high or above the overnight low is just going to be chop It is going to be tug of war. It is both sides competing To figure out who's going to win and which way is the market going to go So it doesn't matter which contract you're trading on both of them Just use the overnight high and the overnight low for the sake of the Um H contract the overnight high is 4666 so that's a good omen 4666 is that overnight high and we'll call that overnight low 4652 So as long as it is above 5 2 and below 6 6 you're looking for chop and rotation sideways Okay, just tug of war If it breaks the high you look for new buyers up there If they've got it, they're going to keep going. It's going to get very bullish more shorts will cover more new buyers will enter Okay, if it starts to get resistance below the overnight low if it gets below 46 52 and it gets new selling Then you look for it to try to fill the gap back down to 46 14 now whether it will be able to get there or not is a whole another story Right, but if it gets below that overnight low and it gets new selling that is where it is trying to go Okay, anything in between chop for the old contract if you're trading the z The overnight low is going to be what's called 4600 And the overnight high is 46 14 So as long as it is between those levels it is chop it is two-sided trade It is tug of war and they are likely to just keep on tugging And chopping and grinding But if they can get above it's bullish for continuation higher if they get below It becomes a look above and fail of the previous balance area And you start monitoring for continuation lower from there Okay We get it. Charles. We get it. We hear you When the when the opening bell rings in about 15 minutes, you don't know if it's going up or it's going down You're not sure you got to wait and see what happens at the overnight high or the overnight low Well, that's a huge range. That's a big range. I mean You could go long right now And if it pushes up to that overnight high and it gets support wouldn't you be in such a better trade? Getting in down here, you know 10 points lower Rather than waiting to see what happens at that overnight high Well, sure If I got lucky If the money gods were on my side and it happened to push above the overnight high And it happened to find support and it happened to keep going Well, that would be fantastic to just get long right now making extra 10 points But I have no way of knowing if that's going to happen. I have no clue Whether it'll be able to get up there. I don't know once it gets up there Whether it'll be able to bring in new buyers. I don't know Okay But what I do know is that if it gets up there and it brings in new buyers It has a very high probability that it will keep going So I may not know what's going to happen at the overnight high or if we will even test it But I will know what to do when we get there New buying will tell me I want to get long because the market will make that continuation higher Or a look above and fail that cannot bring in new buying Will tell me I should be short to pull back down looking for buyers once again Okay, so I just have to wait and it's the same exact thing with that overnight low The overnight low is a very important level because it will send us back down into balance In the same way the overnight high will be accessed to the upside the overnight low is balanced to the downside so Better that I just wait instead of trying to grab that extra five points now Right, it's better that I just wait and see what happens Because it might test that overnight low and just poke below and pull right back up Maybe that's all the market needs Maybe there's strong hand buyers waiting right there. They were there in the overnight Maybe they're there again And that's all it needs and it turns around and heads higher from there If that's the case wouldn't I rather be looking to get long somewhere in here Rather than panicking about the fact that I got short And now I'm stuck in that trade So sometimes patience is the way Now I don't know how much time the market will spend shopping this morning inside this overnight range I don't know if we're going to be in here for five minutes or five hours I have no way of knowing that I have no way of knowing how long I will have to wait for the opportunity to present itself to me But I know what that opportunity will be And I know when we get there exactly what to look for new buyers or new sellers This is the way 10 minutes to market open Let me know if you got any questions in the chat If you have not hit that thumbs up button yet, please do Sure would appreciate it We got 101 Awesome people hanging out but only 15 thumbs up Someone's mad at the pirate. I don't understand why Ruby good morning to you welcome Bust a move in the house. Hello Michael is here. Good to see you Majedj, sorry, I don't know how to say that name. I murder it every time. Hello to you Mw. Good morning. Nap is here John in the house. John says volume is higher on the h contract. Yes, it is It often is for the first day Of the new contract the old one will still have more volume, but then by the second or third day it will roll So probably by tomorrow there'll be more volume on the um The h then the z Trout says do you have any suggestions for a good and fast broker platform that can be traded through trading view for futures? Um amp amp futures can do that Not making a recommendation, but check them out nap says we got an fomc day and pal presser on wednesday That is very interesting news and could lead to some sideways chop here over the uh the next couple of days But I will still treat today like a giant gap And be looking for a gap fill or a gap and go and monitoring for continuation from there And if it ends up being that we have a couple of boring sideways days, well then so be it Good morning. Tony I've got a question here. What platform am I using for market profile? Uh, it's called window trader Window trader spelled without a w at the end Tony, thank you. This is the way I love that Uh, David v says would you mind going over signs of any aging trend of an aging trend again? Yes, so When the market has momentum You know and it's moving from one location to another It will always have more momentum at the beginning, right? Think about momentum like It's not just that traders want to buy the market It's not just that they think the market's going to go up and they want to be long It's that they are forced to buy the market people that are short if the momentum is up, obviously People that are short are covering their shorts So they're becoming longs by force And other people are being forced by emotion to become longs because they feel like if they don't get long now They're going to miss the move the market's going to run away without them So both of those things force traders to go long Whether it is covering shorts or emotionally buying longs Both of those things force traders that is momentum So there is always going to be more momentum at the beginning Right when the market first starts to to make whatever move it's going to make the beginning of it Will always be more violent. It will always have faster tempo Thinner volumes the market will move and it will just like come back very quickly and then make another move It just will be very volatile very fast And It won't come back down It'll make big moves and it'll just stay and make a big move and it'll just stay right That's momentum when you see that happening The market is telling you it's got momentum and it can just keep going and going until that momentum runs out Okay, well when those ranges start to become tighter When all of a sudden it's not quite pushing as far and it's starting to balance It's not quite going as far and it's starting to balance That is the market showing you that it's running out of steam that momentum is coming out. There are fewer and fewer Shorts up here being forced to cover Right. There are fewer and fewer FOMO buyers Stepping in so if we look at the daily chart We can literally see it happening Right there So you had this massive v-shape reversal That started the momentum Everyone was bearish everybody thought we were going to make new all-time lows Yeah, not new all-time, but yearly lows, you know Everybody thought we were going to have this crazy move to the downside tons of people were short There were new sellers entering the market every day Oh my god the momentum to the downside and then out of nowhere It just reversed and as soon as it started to reverse some of those sellers were forced to cover Right. And so boop boop boop the market started to move up And then more of them were forced to cover and then boop boop boop And then FOMO buyers started to be like v-shape v-shape v-shape and then boop boop boop the market went up Okay, it had to spend a few days going sideways in here building up steam They tried to break higher twice and failed and pulled back in Finally brought in the support and that gives them that next launch that next momentum Well, what has happened since then? Man, they have had to fight and grind and work and work to get higher So they don't have Any more of these shorts that need to cover anymore Everyone who was short covered somewhere in here And now they're having to work very very hard to bring in those new buyers to keep that momentum going So it's just something we want to be aware of It doesn't mean the momentum is coming to an end today or tomorrow or this week But it just means we're getting closer That trend is getting old Three minutes till market open Pass says is pal gonna make an all-time high? um Not on the es Maybe on the nq not on the es It's certainly possible on the q No doubt about it So again, we're way zoomed out here. Okay, we're looking at a daily chart And we're zoomed out looking at it over the last basically almost three years. Okay So what happened here? Right? We had tons of momentum It started to slow down that trend started to age got one more pullback that created another wave of momentum Then the market fought and fought and fought and fought and fought to try to keep going It ran out of steam and boom we got this big pullback Okay, there's your bear market um Market builds momentum turns around it comes right back up. What happens? It starts to age it goes sideways it goes sideways it goes sideways It finally pulls back enough to bring in the buyers that to me Should be enough momentum to get right back to the all-time high If it worked here Sorry If they could create enough momentum here to get to the all-time high Why on earth couldn't they do it right there? So, yeah So what's the other side of that coin? Well, if they can't If they fail and they pull back in guess what? Right back down One minute to market open Good morning Pavel Holger in the house Guten Magen Thank you ships appreciate you p.m. Hi to you What data provider do I use for window trader? IQ feed And we're open So remember first order of business for the market I am looking at the new contract is to try to fill the gap Large gaps often don't fill on the first day So if the market pushes below the overnight low and we do not get new selling That will be bullish to see But if we do get new selling well, then it's bearish to try to fill the gap Boy the liquidity on es is moving like it's nq today Ha ha all those all those arbitrage bots rolling everything over Beep boop boop boop boop boop Give me contracts more contracts Sell them here by them here Beep boop boop boop Good morning to Arjit Suresh Rui says Do you look at yesterday's closing delta? That big players Yesterday delta at 20 hours 59 became negative for almost 2.9. I don't look at any of that. You're talking about the order book At the last like 10 minutes of the day. No, I don't pay attention to that at all Doesn't interest me What does interest me is What do the overnight traders do? From wherever the market closed yesterday to where it's going to open today Or in our case friday to monday, right? Like what did they do in the overnight? How did they react to what we did yesterday? That's what's interesting to me Dean good morning to you. Welcome. All right. So the market is now passed through the opening price about four or five times That is a sign of chop So don't trust any move up or down right now If it's inside this overnight range Because that is just the market Pushing above the opening price to get you. Oh, we got to get long. We got to get long and then pulling it back down Oh, shit. Shit get short and then open up no long and then oh Short oh, oh and there you go right back through the open Oh, oh shit shit other way other way Ken says cue please Let's do it and cues that it's overnight high bullish to see Bullish to see Can they hold it? So we got good excess good taper at the high. Can they turn the overnight high into support? It doesn't look like they can So failure at the overnight high is a look above and fail That increases the odds you're passing back through the opening price now And you're back in a chop zone inside the overnight range Yes, sir. Look above and fail So now you go sideways unless you can get below 16 255 Or you can get back up above 16 3 27 and find support this time They did not have support this past time Until they get one of those two test the low or find support above the high More sideways chop Rob says have you rolled over to the h contract yet? Yes. So what you're seeing on the screen right now is the h um Metatron says do you wait for the initial balance? Usually before trading no serve. So we have a gap today. I could trade right this minute It's about the momentum. I'm just waiting for a signal. It's not a I don't have to wait for an hour I just have to wait to understand what the market's doing. So for me that signal is either One of four scenarios. Okay, either get to the overnight high Look above and fail In which case I would get short targeting a pass back through the opening price as I just discussed with the nq Um, or if the market pushed above the overnight high and it found support I would look to get long for continuation higher If it looked below the overnight low and it got new selling I'd get short to fill the gap if it looked below the overnight low and it failed pulling back up I would just wait and watch and see what happens next so While it's inside the overnight range. I don't take a trade because I don't have an edge Right. I don't have a location to get long or short where I have an advantage Where I can instantly find out if I'm right or wrong and I only have to risk a little bit of money to make a lot more Right, but it doesn't matter when it goes there and go there in the first five minutes or can go there in five hours It's just about the location where the edge exists Just so you guys know liquidity on book map everything is telling me chop and sideways This does not feel bullish to me On the es PM says I'm new here. Can you elaborate a little for the newbies? A totally fair question and why I'm here. Yeah, let's do it Um, so the chart that you see on the right side of the screen over here This is the book map chart. So the book map chart is showing me where the liquidity is in the market Both where it is currently in the in the actual order book right now And where it was during different parts of the day when we traded at that level Okay, so the current order book is over here on the right and then the heat map is over here on the left So seeing where that liquidity is and how it changes gives me an understanding of what kind of Trading is happening at what different levels. Okay Over here on the left. This is a market profile chart Now a market profile chart is basically the same thing as a candlestick chart It shows you where price goes over a period of time But it shows it to you in a three-dimensional way So whereas a candlestick can only show you where that period of time whatever it is Whether it's a five-minute candlestick or a daily or whatever Where it opened where it closes. What was the highest point it went to and what was the lowest point it went to And then if you have the volume on there, it can show you how much volume traded during that time However, none of that really tells you what happened at each of those levels Like at specific price levels, where did business take place? That's what the market profile shows you it shows you where the business takes place on each level So the letters that you see those are called tpos. Those are basically the candlesticks, right? Each letter represents in my case the way of my chart set up a 30 minute time period So it's like a 30 minute candlestick. Okay So the more of them that you see stacked up like this the more time the market spent in a certain area Okay, so if i'm looking at the overnight over the weekend, this is the area the overnight traded Most of that trade took place between here And here Right, you can see that's where it spent most of its time. That's where it has the most letters Well, what has been happening thus far this morning? We poked below that area and then we came right back up in it and we spent more time in here And we poked above it and then we came back in and we spent more time in here So that's a way for me to understand by looking at where the market spent time in the overnight And seeing that that's where we're spending time so far today I mean the market's only been open 12 minutes But we've spent most of those 12 minutes inside the area is the overnight, right? So that tells me nothing's changed From the opening bell. Nothing has changed from the overnight. We're still just grinding and shopping So what does that mean? Well, it means that the only way we're going to get away from here If nothing's changed is if one side gives up if either the buyers or the sellers quit And then the market makes a move the other way So we're going to have chop it's going to push up and pull back down It's going to push down and pull back up up and down down and up up and down down and up until eventually it'll start to break one way It'll push up and it'll start to bring in new buyers And when that happens then all those sellers everybody that had been going short Get squeezed and the market goes higher or vice versa, right? So great. I understand the mechanism of what's happening here. They're playing tug of war One side is going to win or the other side. Where do I get in? How do I get into a trade? Right, that's the next thing. Well, that's why I have to know the levels I have to know where business takes place So that I know where I should be doing business So like I said for me because very little business Happened at the overnight high and very little business happened at the overnight low. That's where I want to be doing business Right. So when it gets up there That's either going to be an opportunity to get long Or an opportunity to get short for a failure and vice versa So that is what the market profile chart does. It lets me see where the business is happening So I know where I want to put my contracts Now as far as what you're seeing in front of you here This represents the range over the weekend Okay, what we're calling the overnight range And then this right here represents the trade so far today in the first 14 minutes So you've got two volume profiles right next to each other right now. They're identical But as we move throughout the day the one on the left will show the amount of volume that is traded within the full day And the one in the middle will show how much volume is traded within the current 30 minute tpo Also, as we move throughout the day, I have the tpo's I have two sets here Again, they're identical But this one will be expanded out to show us like candlesticks how the market moves throughout the day Whereas this one will be collapsed to look like this to show us where it spends the most time But it's too early to see that now It's too early, baby To see more tpo's The clock's got a strike 10 a.m. Man Ah, john says I have always noticed that the day before One or two big news days It is a broccoli chop contest Um that you can take your fingers off Yeah, no that's that is It's one of those things it's you can't count on it like you can't always say if the market is in a Choppy thing, you know a few days before the news It's just going to go sideways till the news or whatever you can't ever know Because I I feel like every time I say that it ends up the market makes a big move But um, but there definitely is some coincidence there that The market is often right at a very important balance area like where it's just about to break one way or another Right when we get to an important news day And usually that's because it will have chopped for a few days kind of sticking around at that level waiting for that to happen But I could make so let's just use this as an example and I'm just going purely just making stuff up here but let's say You know that I was going to make the prediction that pal was going to speak and it was going to push the market much higher right Or sorry the pal's going to speak and something big was going to happen in the market Well, if in the next few days we get a big move up Right, which is a breakout of this balance and continuation higher. Basically, we make up We get above the overnight high we find support right we started heading higher if we have that Wouldn't it be interesting for us to be like way up here? When pal speaks and then the market could crash much lower right or Wouldn't it be interesting to look above and fail and pull back down to the bottom of that balance area? So that two days from now when pal speaks we're sitting right on that balance area low Where again it could break much lower or it could turn around and head much higher So that sets us up for either this is so confusing when i'm looking at the new contract. Let me go to the old contract Does that make sense guys, so we're either set up for We push up here and then pal speaks and we're all the way up here Or we pull right back down to the lows and then we're down here when he speaks which sets us up for the next break So what should we be doing today treat it like any other day? Do we fill the gap what happens if we do on and on and on? And not worry about the fact that pal is going to speak in two days Because it could make a move oh so choppy As he says during contract rollover book map might not be That useful Yeah, it'll be different right reading book map because it is a liquidity tool Right when the liquidity is split when half the people are trading on one contract and half around another it will be different It is still just as important right the information is still just as important, but it will be trickier to read That's for sure Especially since a lot of the liquidity is bots rolling out of contracts from one into the other Question mark says what is next for the nq? I mean, I feel like I've already answered this question guys. Does it get support? Oh, it got supported at the overnight high Okay, so it's bullish The nq is bullish. Good god, man. I don't even have data back here Yeah, I mean I hate to be hyperbolic, but 16 420 That's it. That's the target 16 420 It's got the momentum. Can they keep it going? That's the question now All right, so they just pushed up into some resistance here around 16 350 So they got to break through that and then turn it into support If they can get through 50 and then come back down and turn it into support The next move would be 16 420 resistance there and we just rinse and repeat Resistance pull back does it become support resistance pull back does it become support? Until the support finally breaks And of course all of this only stays bullish as long as they are above that overnight high If they pull back down below 16 324 now It's bearish once again or it's neutral once again they Hold it. Okay. So we've spent a lot of time right around uh, 46 60 here on the es Clearly they are not able to push higher. So they need to pull back, right? But they are bringing in a lot of buyers up here So that tells me they want to try to test the overnight high So now the question i'm asking myself is can they turn the half back at 46 57 into support So that gives the market a little chance to pull back And it's a nice level for buyers to step in if they want to try to test that overnight high So let's see if we get support Okay, here's that test Nope More chop Any other questions from the chat while we watch the market chop Anything at all Paz says measure move from friday is completed Busta move says, what would you say your average time in a trade is? Uh, generally like A half an hour to two hours something like that. I'm generally looking for the bigger move the market's going to make So sometimes I get lucky and it makes that move right away and sometimes it takes all day to make that move But as long as i'm still right my understanding of the market is still confirmed i'll stay in the trade The goal for me Is to enter as few times as possible Right the goal is to take as few trades as possible Each trade that I take each time I make a decision to enter a trade That is work for my brain That is burning up Mental capital that I have available to me for any given day So I want to make as few of those decisions where I actually pull the trigger as possible But I want to because i'm taking very few I want to make sure they're right because I don't get many opportunities So I want to be patient and wait until the opportunity is just so good I can't I can't let it go. I gotta take a chance. Those are the trades I take Once I get in the trade Then I want that trade to Price wise to go as far as it possibly can I want to make as much money off that trade as I possibly can So that I don't have to make another decision to get in another trade So if I'm bullish and I think the market is going to go up It is always my desire to just stay in a trade and let it go up as high as it can go or vice versa Rather than constantly jump in jump out jump in jump out The jumping in and jumping out can help with emotions, right? If you're in a uh, you know, you're bullish and the market is going up and you're in a long trade But it starts to pull back and you start to feel worried. Oh, no, I'm going to give back some of my gains Well, then sometimes taking profits is a way to deal with that Worry, right? It's a it's a way to make you feel better But what I have learned through bitter experience is that Making decisions to make myself feel better rarely makes me more money Making decisions based on the probabilities And what will make me the most money with the highest statistical probability most of the time Regardless of how I feel when I'm doing it that will bring me more money So the goal for me as a trader is to ignore what I feel And do what I know using statistical probabilities is the better way to do it So we passed back through the opening price very briefly there But we did not get continuation lower That's very interesting information and it is bullish to see The reason is because once the market pulled back through that opening price That increased the odds that we would need to test the low Well, we already have higher odds that we should test the low. Why? Because we have a gap And always the first order of business is to try to fill the gap We haven't really tried yet. So that's always going to be a magnet tugging on price We also had a low volume low Anytime the market makes less than 100 contracts at the low of the day. It increases the odds It will need to visit that level again So we've got multiple reasons why the market should have just tested the low just now It should have tested it because we passed back through the opening price It should have tested it because it's low volume and it should have tested it because we have a gap And it didn't So now that is a when what should happens doesn't which is just a little bit more bullish to see So am I going long? Am I jumping into a long trade? Long long long long long long Of course not Right because we haven't broken out of the job zone, but I'm giving myself some insights Right. I'm giving myself an advantage in understanding that they just tried to take it lower and they couldn't So that increases the odds they will try to take it higher market generated information folks It's coming at you every second of the day Thank you, Tom. Good Branco says most of the time volume profile and tpo's have the same form. Why are you looking at both? Because they're not the same and it's the subtle differences between the two that give you clues, right? So The order of business for the market price advertises Then time regulates Then volume measures. So first the market moves to a new level And then if it spends enough time there, it has the chance to bring in volume there, right? But it doesn't always do it. It doesn't always succeed in bringing in volume That's important information, right? If you're spending time somewhere, but you're not bringing in volume It's going to turn around and head the other way So you need all three dimensions You need to see time price and volume To understand what's really happening. Otherwise, you're just only getting a third of the information Or you're missing a third of the information. I mean, okay, and q still looking bullish So they remain above the overnight high Which as long as they're above there, it's bullish They also just left behind what's called a poor high So that increases the odds that the market is pushing away from that poor high But not because it's going to go lower but merely to look for buyers. So we've got support at 16 3 we'll call it 43 And 16 3 31 that's the note of volume right here and the half back right here Either of those could act as support to slingshot the market back up through the uh poor high Can They Hold it That is the question can they hold the support above the overnight high Charles, how can you be bullish on the q and neutral on the es Because the q has broken out of the chop zone and is telling me it's bringing in new buyers above Whereas the es is still trying to decide So I must wait until it decides Ken says tick q is hanging out below the zero Yet the price is going up That's not good Oh, you're right That is not good So the buyers that are buying the You know the levels above the overnight high They really need to get these ticks back above the zero line If not then it's more um You know shorts covering and less new money buying and then it can't keep going So if they're going to be able to keep the momentum going on the q they got to get those ticks back above the zero Right now Come on buyers You can do it Hey, john you got it Somebody got my forest gump reference Oh, that's great Fair enough john fair enough Um Raouz says what's the tick q? So um This right here is what we call the market internals It's basically just you know four different charts that give us Uh like different look at the the moves the market is making So these are looking at the underlying assets The three this one here the vald the ad spd and the tick Those are looking at assets on the nicy And the one that's tick uh dash q That one is looking at the assets on the nasdaq And it's basically just measuring momentum like up up volume versus down volume Um, you know where previous tick price moves up versus price moves down so forth So it just gives us an idea when we're seeing something in the futures contract This is why it was so interesting right for the nq just now in the futures contract It's bullish right the market pushed above the overnight high and they are now bringing in new buyers Right, how do we know that well first off the time It it pushed up it pulled back in for a second But then it pushed up again and since that second time that it's pushed back up it has stayed above here It has spent all the time up here Also, if we look at the volume where is a majority of the volume so far today traded More of it was above Then below right So that's that's bullish all of that price action wise is what we want to see We want to see the market push to a new higher level and then spend time and bring in volume that increases the odds It's going to get another push up However, when the ticks aren't above the zero line That's fishy Because it tells us they are not buying the underlying the underlying shares of the companies Right, so it's just the futures kind of exploring price to see how far they can push it But the underlying shares are not joining the party And if the underlying shares don't join the party eventually those futures will run out of steam and pull back down So we're looking for confluences And this is just a this really pops out at me when price is saying up But ticks are saying down Something's rotten in Denmark, you know So that's I would still be bullish on the queue I would still assume the market has momentum is going to keep going But I just wouldn't expect as much I wouldn't be looking to get long and fall in love with the trade and stay in it all day I'd rather get long and go ahead and just take profits and and wait for more information because it's you know It's less certain If they're not buying those underlying shares So what am I starting to think now? I'm saying to myself who is shorting this right now on the es Somebody is going short. We have just been grinding and grinding and grinding right around this 46 60 level for you know The better part of 20 minutes here Just grinding and grinding and grinding somebody is going short You know if there was no one going short the market would go up So who are those traders going short and what will they do if the market pokes above the overnight high? Are they going to Stay in their trades or are they going to get squeezed? Well, my assumption is With this sideways chop if we get above the overnight high now We will get some short covering Because all these sellers they're getting nothing for it They keep selling and selling and selling but we can't can't even get back to the low Which is weak So they are more likely to get squeezed causing short covering above the overnight high We're still in a chop zone But again, that is just another bullish signal 181 people hanging out good to see you welcome Only 15 thumbs up. What do we do to get some thumbs up up in here? Oh 64 I had to refresh my page. Sorry. Thank you guys Shift says I got to sing more to get more thumbs up. Well, that really depends shifts Sometimes I get thumbs down for those So I got to be You got to be cautious with the singing Our case says look at natural gas oof Yes, sir Going into winter time too That's interesting Yeah, that's crazy. It's a lot of momentum. It's still going It's just a lot of momentum Yeah, I don't trade natural gas. So I don't know what I'm looking at here chop chop chop chop chop And the bot shenanigans on the z-contract are insane here at the high They just will not let it go freedom We're out of the bot shenanigans zone Can we test that overnight high at? four six six six A question mark says are you looking at different time frames than the 15 minute for the tick or the tick queue? It's a good question. You can look at whatever time frame you want I always just use 15 minute candles, but you could look at one minute or five minute or 15 or hourly whatever you want Just keep in mind the shorter the time frame The more signals you're going to get and the ticks are already a little bit tricky to read They already send a lot of like mixed signals So anything you can do to limit the amount of information they're sending you the better So you can use like one minute or five minute, but I wouldn't recommend it Man the chop continues Good access good taper at the high once again. No one's getting nothing here today Neither the bulls nor the bears So we're back to asking can they turn the half back into support past says Inflation data in 30 minutes Would be happy if it came back through the opening price Right now at this exact moment. It is totally possible But um If they get above that overnight high first not as much Just keep reminding yourself. It's two sided trade right now It's just as many traders going short as long But when we get above that overnight high A lot of the people that are shorting will have to cover They'll be forced into becoming buyers As they'll be forced to admit they're wrong and we're not going back through that open again I'm hanging out for five more minutes. If you have any final questions for me It's now or you got to wait another week Unless you're a member of the brigade You can join the brigade for just $10 and then we get to hang out like this every day for the first hour But if you're not a member of the brigade, it's now or nothing for the next week Let me know if you got any questions Scoobal says hi. Hi Scoobal Ship says how much is that 10 bucks for the whole month? That's right 10 bucks for the whole month It's like less than a quarter a day To keep the bad trades away I'm so sorry Thank you Fred um Rui That minimal display volume you are using for volume dots on book map. Yeah 300 minimal 300 Clustering by volume with 50 All right, so we're about to print the c-period here in about one minute so Throughout the morning so far I have been saying the levels that I'm watching for me to do business Would be the overnight high or the overnight low I would now change that to be the b-period high or the a-period low If the market pushes above the b-period high I will assume they're heading up to test that overnight high And I would be willing to buy support after the fact So once they start one time framing then I'd be willing to buy support To test that overnight high and monitor for continuation higher from there If the c-period pushes below the a-period low I would then assume the market is trying to fill the gap and I would be willing to sell resistance Okay So it's still chop inside the initial balance If we're below the b-period high or we are above the a-period low this So far you all can tell this has just been tug of war this morning, right? It makes sense That they're just it's just tug of war That will just continue as long as it has to and it might be for hours It will continue as long as it has to but when they break the initial balance That's where one side or the other will get squeezed and you will likely get continuation Okay, a failure to get that Getting above the initial balance and pulling back in or getting below the initial balance and pulling back up Well, that would be bad news because it would mean sideways for the rest of the day So the higher probability is continuation one direction or another Unfortunately, I must say goodbye. I have to get ready for the workshop I wish you all an excellent week of trading and um Oh, I'll probably do fomc live if I get a chance So look out on the pirate traders youtube channel for that. Otherwise, I will see you on monday morning. Thank you very much guys Have a good one. Bye