 Week six of NFL DFS mostly in the books outside of Monday night football and there is plenty to discuss we've got some back up running back shifting into larger roles we got some more unfortunate injuries to discuss some change the quarterback we can dig into and see what changed some non injuries which are very good Kyler Murray shoulder appears healthy we're gonna break it all down let you know the big implications may DFS perspective and let you know what it all means going forward welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire that's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire dot com my name is Jim Sonnis I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire dot com joined here as always by Brandon good new luck he is the managing editor for number fire dot com Brandon week six is in the books how are you doing today I'm pretty good it's always a hard question to answer especially on a Monday morning but pretty good yesterday main slate was decent could have been better could have been a lot worse we had so many running backs to pick from that by the time we I sat down and built lineups Sunday morning I was like I was just a bit overwhelmed and I mean I avoided I ended up just avoiding cream hunt because the news that came out that he wasn't 100% and you know that mostly worked out for me but you know bit too heavy Devonte Booker in comparison to Clue Herbert and that that one for one in some spots you know cost me but overall doing pretty good I thought pretty good about how I handle things are running back outside of Daryl Williams I feel like I probably should have been a bit higher on him but like two touchdowns is kind of hard to predict I guess so I feel like I'm okay with that one overall the biggest flop for me was the game stacks like we as long term listeners know we revolve around game stacks the games we wanted to stack basically all went under the one exception was the Dallas New England game and I was tracking to be in a very bad mood Sunday night because most of my stuff didn't go well in terms of the game stacks with my quarterbacks receivers didn't do well and that game wasn't going that well I bet Cowboys minus three and a half because I bet it before it got to three and I had Dak and see the lamb lineups which we're doing okay and so the only way that I could like rectify like save my night from a betting perspective and for DFS was if Dak press got through his touchdown to see the lamb in overtime and the words that came out of my mouth when that happened I had to explain myself so in not like a bad way but like you know it was I haven't celebrated that much for a non Northwestern touchdown in a very long time and I was very happy so thank you Dak for bailing me out from bad game stacks it was not a high cash rate type week but you know I'll take it either way I think that it was that was helpful for sure in terms of my mood in talking to you today and the rest of last night as well so thank you Dak for bailing me out there we'll talk about Dak's potential calf injury should be okay there we'll talk about takeaways from those back up running backs brand was talking about just one segment first the puck has dropped on the NHL season and Fanduola is celebrating with an NHL parlay insurance offer all you got to do is place a four plus leg parlay on NHL games either tonight or tomorrow if exactly one leg of your bet loses you get a refund in psych credit kick off the NHL season the right way by heading over to Fanduola sportsbook in placing an NHL parlay must be 21 plus and present Arizona Colorado Iowa Illinois Indiana Michigan New Jersey Pennsylvania Tennessee Virginia or West Virginia refund issued is known with throttle psych credit that expires in seven days max refund $25 per day restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook.fanduola.com gambling problem call 1-800-GAMBLER visit fanduola.com-rg in Indiana 1-800-9 with it for confidential help in Michigan 1-800-270-7117 in Tennessee call the red line at 1-800-89-979 in West Virginia 1-800-GAMBLER.net or in Arizona call 1-800-next-step or text next step to 533-42 let's dive in here to this week six slate and check out the headliner for this week and I think the headliner Brandon is the roles we saw for those backup running backs we talked a lot about those guys last week we talked about it in our like additional like Korea Ambulance the podcast we recorded on Thursday afternoon and most of them came through the big world so things off with Clio Herbert playing 90% of the snaps of the bears this past week it was actually the highest snap rate of any running back for week number six he had all 19 running back carries to the bears he had two out of three red zone carries he had three targets and 21 routes the problem is they face the bucks next week and we know how teams tend to use their backs against the bucks aka they don't so what's your view of Clio Herbert if Damian Williams is still out next week well the thing that stood out to me most whenever we look I mean that the 90% snap rate stands out a lot but the thing that stands out most in terms of anticipating what to expect next week is that he ran over two thirds of the teams past routes with those 21 routes and the three targets is sizable so in that matchup we have seen running backs get peppered and I feel like he would at least stay relevant from that perspective it's just a matter of whether the bears are going to try to run the ball against the bucks which you know they can't and they shouldn't they're they're 12 and a half point underdogs so you know I would at least think Herbert's receiving role is good enough but I don't know what the offensive expectations if they'll be high enough to want to go there even if the salary remains low they've got an implied team total of 18 points and that seems appropriate based on what my stuff is saying so I think that's about right Herbert's salary for next week is $6000 that is low enough to at least like not totally cross him off I think hypothetically if you were to give me like Damian Williams like let's say test negative today I would think you would get the past catching role back from Herbert's and I think it probably split back in which case I could avoid it so I think we'll see on Damian but I think that'd be the most likely scenario here either way good role for Herbert in a week number what's Damian's what's Damian's salary let's hope it's for something $6100 I don't know I can hope I know that I want to stack that chiefs Titan's game next week so I'm really hoping for some like let's get an error somewhere let's get a KK Hernandez situation when he was $220 in baseball back couple years ago let's get one of those well my thing is that Herbert's had enough of a role where it's going to be split and then that's the kind of situation that we would historically avoid so I would be nervous if Williams does play well that's what I was saying is I kind of hope Damian plays so I don't chase Herbert oh gotcha gotcha yeah yeah I want I want it to be split so I don't have to worry about it basically Devante Booker was a feature back in the second one Barclay for the most part he has 71% snap rates he had 1215 running back carries and one of three in the red zone he did lose a short touchdown to Elijah Penny but I was very late in that game Penny got a red zone target that game was at a hand Daniel Jones almost got benched I think Brandon we've seen enough from the Giants to still have some level of faith in this offense at a certain point the problem was they got down they had in game injuries Kaderi so we'll talk about later on but from a role perspective what do you think of Devante Booker here yeah good role for a value back really can't ask for a whole lot more we would like this these numbers for most backs in better offenses and that would come with a higher salary see if you just kind of take away the name here in the offense and you look at a 71% snap rate 1215 running back carries you know some red zone work again and then put in that context of how the game got you know we would like that role so I'm good with Booker of course we need this offense to play better than it did this week Daniel Jones you know you and I have had a bit of a history with Daniel Jones overall and we're both warming up to him a lot he's playing about two opponent expectation so that's fine enough for me it's whenever guys are really really struggling compared to expectation that I want to divest but you know enough from Jones to like Booker but I have a really hard time with the salary for him. What's what you thinking I'm thinking like for me because they're they're hosting the Panthers as a tight spread 71% snap rate tight spread. It's a good defense and it's the kind of defense that can give Jones that can put him in his own comfort zone where he makes his Daniel Jones mistakes which he did again on Sunday which is why almost got benched. I would say like 65 is probably where I'm comfortable. 68 is the number I had on my head but I again where it's it I would think that's a fair number I would really start to block it that though he's $5800 so I think he's under salary. I need to make a list of dudes. I'm doing that now I've been waving around this paper because I forgot my notebook. You take hand notes during the show. We have a Google Doc right in front of us we could take notes. No I know but then but I don't that's the thing is I don't look at my at the notes here enough and things get lost amongst the whole note sheet. So I just have made it a habit. I started this last I don't have any paper I have like a target gift card. I have a reminder to get my dogs poop investigated and like some betting slips but like I don't have any paper I can write on so I don't know this is unsettling but bookers under salary that's less unsettling. You say that as if like I'm weird for having some like paper nearby. Yeah it is weird. Who writes it's 2021 dude give it the times. Daryl Williams had a really good role for the cheese really impressive year 72% snap rate 21 of 24 running back carries. He had six out of seven red zone carries including two touchdowns. He had four targets and 29 routes. So the yardage was not great but like he was out there and he scored and that's kind of the reason we want to tie our backs to good offenses. So name that salary for Daryl Williams in the shootout the game of the week seven main slate. So before I answer this can you just tell me what the difference is now between Williams and Clyde Edwards you layer when he was better just that you think he's better like I was joking. I don't think there is a difference. Well no actually Daryl is less likely to use two minute down two minute roll snaps to himself. Right. I think that's a difference. So I think it's it's basically a CEH plus but the plus is a little bit small. It's not like it's a massive difference. It might be offset a bit. I think that Edwards you layer is better yardage upside but like that's can't put out by the fact that like he's not going to lose. So I would say it's a wash for the most part. Yeah so I'm just trying to think of like what what CEH would be. Now that that game if I'm not mistaken is like the game. It's going to be the game. So you know this could be also 7000. I was thinking 68. So I think that's fair. The game is kind of 56 and a half point total. Nothing else is above 50. It's $700. I think that's very appropriate. A little bit a little bit under. So I searched Daryl which means that I accidentally saw Cordero Patterson's salary. I saw the 8000 like holy poop like Daryl Williams is $8000. And no it's Cordero even better. Is he still wide receiver eligible? I was going to say he is good. But you say he's got an eight in front of his name. It's it's eight flat but. The regression monsters common. No. No. No. Yeah. He'll just be a top five fantasy performer on a personal basis. I agree. Good assessment with Daryl Williams at $6800. I think like that's very fair. That's where he should be. Yeah. And because I'm going to be so aggressive in stacking that game. He'll be a key part of that too. Yeah. So honestly that's the salary I would have said for CEH. So I just kind of added in that little boost that we talked about. Fair enough. I think maybe that's the thought process they used to. Not really sure. But wouldn't be shocked if it were. Chuba Hubbard's role was a bit disappointing at least for me. Because they had a negative script with no Rodney Smith. And I thought that Hubbard might get more passing game work with Smith being cut. But he still had just three targets. He played 66% of the snaps. He's good when they're in a neutral or a positive script. But when Sam Darnold is your quarterback. AKA James Darnold was back and again we're getting only bad James here. Not good James. The odds that they wind up with a negative script are higher. So. I'm conflicted on a Hubbard because like some of the numbers here are okay. But like the offense is not playing very well right now. And it's still not a perfect role either. So where are you at a Chuba Hubbard after we saw week six. Yeah. I mean so. Darnold was the worst passer on a per play basis according to number fires. Passing that expected points metric at a minus 0.34 in week six. Daniel Jones was a minus 0.3. And this hurts my heart. But Justin Herbert a minus 2.9 which is which goes to show that you know there are it's possible to have bad games if you're a good quarterback. But what I'm getting at is I feel better with Daniel Jones bouncing back and Sam Darnold right now while Christian McCaffrey is out just because you talked about their passing efficiency splits with him without McCaffrey and it's it's wild. Now Darnold did have some drops DJ Moore dropped first down Robbie Anderson a drop to Robbie Anderson drop Chuba to drop. So like you know I don't want to be too hard on Darnold and I actually liked Sam Darnold a lot coming into the season. But if your quarterback play is bad. I need an amazing role like I need a Najee Harris role and even then like Ben's been not great but not like Darnold. Bad so I don't really have a whole lot of interest in Hubbard unless we find out that the salary has dropped a ton. But in that game like because the Giants play the Panthers like give me Devontae at this point for sure. Devontae over Hubbard straight up. Yeah probably true for me as well just because the role is better and I think the offense is unfortunately are pretty similar so I think that's appropriate. It's a good game in terms of like running backs it's closer. But Hubbard's went up to seventy three hundred dollars. He can pay off that salary if they if they get a positive script but he needs that to be great. And we'll do this with the salary scroll or just get more context but it's going to depend a lot on which running backs we have in the 7000 range because it was pretty loaded at least on Thursday morning this week. So we'll have to see I mean that could be a reasonable salary but I think for now without a whole lot of like the additional context it's a bit too high. We put him below Booker and Darrell at their respective salaries correct. Yeah. Okay I agree Alex Collins was kind of a back of moving to a larger role didn't play overtime last night due to hip and glute injuries. They play Monday night against the Saints but Collins before the injury had a pretty good role. He had 20 carries and one target. He had six of eight red zone opportunities for the team. He's getting a good role. So if he's fine he'd be the clear leader lead back until Chris Carson is back. I will note though that Rashad Penny is eligible to come off IRR this week. Not sure if he will because that's been a really weird situation but I'm just noting that one here any thoughts for you on the Seahawks back field or not much since they're not on the main site next week. I mean you know it's a little bit more Monday night specific single game slate stuff specific but you know you and I both like Gino were rooting for him but not a whole lot to get excited about. So you know take for context if Alex Collins was healthy and on the main slate I would need a salary to be like in the low sixes to want to get there. I'd agree just because that offense. Again I like Gino too. I respect him hope he does well not expecting that necessarily. Let's dive into some injuries stemming from the week six main slate this one unfortunately not a surprise Antonio Gibson ruled that late due to a shin injury he has a stress fracture so like it sounds like they're trying to manage it but like he's gonna miss time eventually. They were down pretty big against the Chiefs so JD McKissick played 60% of the snaps he led the team with ten targets he also did eight rush attempts compared to Jarrett Patterson's one. I would bet that Jarrett Patterson gets more early down work if we do see a situation where Gibson misses time but how would you view McKissick in the scenario where Gibson in the immediate future more work as in more than he's been getting or more than McKissick more than he got on Sunday okay yeah I would agree I mean JD McKissick is someone that I've targeted in season long this season just because the past catching is he has the potential to rack up targets and catches and even on a half PPR site such as Fandall maybe even especially just because it gets more overlooked there's value in that and Washington is a 10 point underdog to Green Bay for next week so you know we could see a ton of receiving work for JD McKissick so far this doesn't account for week six at all yet but Green Bay has been pretty susceptible to backs you know catching the ball the issue is what are the touchdown expectations for McKissick I don't think they're as low as like your typical receiving back because he can get some goal line work and some goal line targets but it's going to take a really strange slate for me to want to make JD McKissick anything close to a priority play now the I guess the flip side is that total or that the over under there 49 and a half so it's going to be one of the higher of the week and he would be part of a bring back for Green Bay which is just Devonte Adams at this point though because I'll talk about some Aaron Jones a little bit but um so I don't know I mean what are you thinking about McKissick what kind of salary for you so my head I had 6000 and that might be high honestly because of the touchdown equity like he can get there on yardage like on Sunday he had 15 fandal points despite the touchdowns um but like I don't know I guess like his touchdowns this year have come I believe on mostly long stuff because he has he has four reds in opportunities this year it's carries plus targets out of like a bunch um he had none on Sunday although they had one play in the red zone so that's why um I don't know I I would expect Patterson to get early down work I'm trying to think of a comp and like maybe it wind up being like a chase Edmunds type thing but Edmunds is around 6000 I don't tend to use him like I think that's probably the type of role McKissick would have whereas Patterson would be more of the James Connor in that situation yeah I could see that for sure so again like the the kind of player we don't typically target I see the if it weren't for the 10 point spread if it were closer I'd be like I don't know if McKissick's gonna get enough for it but we're looking at someone who just had 10 targets we've we've seen at least four targets for him in four games at least six and two of them he can get you to like 50 receiving yards like I would probably like project him out for like six targets at least which is gonna be on the high end for a running back for sure but probably just not someone that I can really foresee and I would probably feel better if I liked Aaron Jones a bit more I'm not I'm gonna sound too down on Aaron Jones I think it's not time to panic yet but really sure I mean like like completely panic and just say never again I'm not oh yeah he's gonna never again that he's pretty panicky so like yeah I'm talking game stacks like for Green Bay it's Devonte obviously and then maybe so I don't really feel like I gotta get to McKissick I felt you know if they were playing the Chiefs this week I'd be like yeah I'd be more open to that because I want different stacks of that game but not for Green Bay as much yep let's move now to Cream Hunt ruled out late due to a calf injury it sounds like it's not in Achilles which I guess is good news here because that's what it looked like initially Hunt played 69% of the snaps while playing through not just that but also I think he had a knee injury and a wrist injury coming in they were down by 16 points of 12 minutes left when Cream Hunt got hurt and they got the ball back when they were down 23 well less than 5 minutes left so really garbage garbage timey Dearness Johnson played those four snaps Demetric Felton did play I think 12 snaps and only two of those were in the backfield Johnson was in the backfield for 12 snaps so if we're looking at Thursday night Brandon I'm guessing Hunt's not gonna play I don't think Chubb will play either my guess would be Johnson handles a good chunk of the early down work but Felton Felton probably gets like a good past catching role in this offense what's your view of the Browns backfield based on what we know right now I mean it's tough I was really digging in trying to do the play play stuff trying to figure out who was on the field once cream hunt got hurt and Arizona just had the ball for like seven seven minutes so not a whole lot to go off of there but I would I would presume that the Johnson's the guy you would prefer overall but you know I'm down on this offense and I have been so can't imagine why I swear when I watch Red Zone Jim doesn't but like I watch Red Zone and I see a lot of the Browns for some reason it feels like they get close to the Red Zone and then I see Baker getting sacked or thrown one to OBJ and he drops it or just anything and I never feel optimistic about this offense at least on Dell played better this week yeah I guess there's that the one positive my dream scenario is that Kevin Stefanski goes and grind some Arthur Smith tape and turns Demetric Felton into Cordero Patterson of the north just saying I'm not saying he will but I'm saying he should let's have some fun here Kevin, best friend Kevin let's have some fun speaking of not fun, Kaderius Tony got ruled out with an ankle injury against the Rams, he looked awesome he had three targets in the first drive he caught a ball absolutely took a defender sole and then got hurt, went to the locker and didn't come back it's a bummer, he's been so fun to watch and that stinks. Sterling Shepherd benefited most here he had 63 routes, he had 14 targets for 76 yards, Dante Pettis remember that name and Evan Ingram also ran 40 routes Pettis got 11 targets Collin Johnson ran 35 routes and had 5 targets they might get Darius Slayton back next week I would assume Slayton would be good to go Kenny Galladay is on the mend as well so I would bet that the giants we saw in week 6 are less healthy than the giants we see in week 7 despite the fact that Tony is probably not going to play so how are you viewing this team if Tony misses time? Most likely just prioritizing Sterling Shepherd who I think led all receivers in route rate he's at 96% I mean it doesn't get a whole lot higher than that and the work was pretty good, two downfield, two red zone targets for him with his 14 total targets I don't care if it's a it's a 10 game slate it's not a two game slate so I'm not going to chase Dante Pettis and as much as I like Evan Ingram historically I'm not going to get there either so I think it might just be Shepherd and then if Slayton comes back I'd consider him assuming the salary is low but probably just Shepherd What was he 62 this week? Yep That should go up with that workload and that's that tight game the Panthers I'd probably say 64, 65 I was thinking 63 and he is 65 so it's not appropriate it's a good workload his website is kind of muted because he's not like a big yardage guy but like the checklist is 85 yards or two touchdowns he could probably get either of those but like squeak it out kind of so I think he works not the highest upside guy but he works I would say prefer Booker in terms of getting exposure to that game and slash that team Yeah I'm debating whether to write down Sterling Shepherd's name on my loose piece of paper here but I don't think he's worth it especially not because it's loose paper Yes So I said well if I write stuff down it commits me more to like You yell at me for this because I log some stuff manually like you're wasting so much time but it commits to my memory but I would write down I would type in Sterling Shepherd because it's easier to type and delete than it is to write something down in pen so I'm debating it and when I said because he was 62 I said he would jump up a little bit and I said 65 I was like if he's 65 I'm not going to play him I just think that's the salary he'll be at so I think I'm going to leave him for now but we could still use him it's just like not a oh my god I need to get this guy's situation I do want to note here that Latavius Murray injured his ankle late for the Ravens they were up pretty big so they could have held him out because of that but also like does it matter if you take one guy out of that backfield because they just make Tyson Williams active and not play him so like we're good just to keep ignoring this backfield right? This is not a backfield that you target NDFS this might be a backfield where if you have Latavius and he comes back healthy and you need him for an RB2 reflex in season long sure but long-term playing guys who play like 30% of the snaps 40% it's not going to get you where you need to go on a big DFS slate. Also who are no longer good at football that's a factor too. Paris Campbell and T.Y. Hilton got hurt for the Colts Campbell left early in the first half and then Hilton left in the fourth quarter they both actually had some kind of pop plays at one point here I already knew the ball was going to go to Michael Pittman so like the target share might not change there but it could really hurt the team's offensive efficiency to be down to Zach Pascal who is incapable of getting downfield and like Michael Strachan I don't know how to say his last name like those might be their two and three receivers so what's your view of the Colts offense with Campbell and Hilton banged up low but I've been low on them and that did not get me on Jonathan Taylor this week unfortunately even in a you know I understand the case for him we'll talk about him later but then yeah it would just be Pittman unless you're like really looking for a low end play but like with Mo Alley Cox but hey based on how the salaries have been going for tight ends on Fando he's probably like 54 anyway we're still on the main site because that game's on Sunday night so that helps did he run more routes this week he ran he keeps getting tight routes he ran 8 routes but got 3 targets as in 0-8 I guess he only ran like 5 plays yeah Michael Pittman ran 21 routes and that's 96% Mo Alley Cox ran 8 routes which is 36% 3 targets with a touchdown 2 downfield targets 1 end zone target for him so like on a per route basis it's going to be there but other than that it's kind of iffy Jack Doyle also ran 8 routes just free Mo Alley Mo Alley Cox let him free give me some action to one that's better than Zach Pascal for being on this I do want to know an injury that was not an injury which is Kyler Murray's shoulder he looked great he averaged .47 passing that expected points per dropback his 8-out was 8.1 he's good to go we'll talk about the pass catcher later on and the Dak Prescott says he has a cast strain but he says he should be good to go they're on a bye this week so I guess we're good to go but just making note of that for later on but protect Dak at all costs so I've got some role changes we saw here in week number 6 let it for net Thursday night Lenny turning into a featured back and I'm beginning to trust it what could go wrong in two games he had 8 of 18 opportunities inside the red zone they get the bears on the main slate next week so name that salary on Thursday night slash Lombardi slash playoff Lenny um, product 73 I would say yeah, that's probably inappropriate I think that's where I'd be as well I was worried you were going to say are you nuts, he's going to get it he's going to get it I was worried you were going to say like are you nuts, he's going to be 8300 snap rate is still around 60 some percent 63% the past two weeks 7000, I think that's appropriate hey, I'm going to write him down 104 net so you can hear me typing because I'm not an idiot I'm using electronics using technology I got so many spreadsheets and windows open by the time it's time to build lineups I'm not going to get there I keep a list and I don't stick to it so I need to write these down and have it next to me okay, independent of salary $7000 what are your thoughts on Leonard for that right now like him relative to I mean we have the stud running backs then we kind of everyone else he's at the bottom of that everyone else tier which I know is probably confusing but that's why I think the low 7000 is justified and I'm higher on him than his salary actually ended up being definitely before the past few games what he would have been firmly in the mid six is at best but I'm up to the way that I view running back on a main slate is anyone with a 7000 or higher in front of their salary has to be someone I feel like they're going to play at least 65% of the snaps right below that but within this offense it helps me overcome that concern yeah, I think that he's pretty sick I don't think it's totally out of bounds because we know that Bruce Arians is a liar but when he speaks well of players that means something not saying he's going to use them but when he says I think he's showing a lot and he's talked well about Leonard for that and it's actually turned into um I think I feel good about it $7000 low enough let me ask you this considering role and considering team Leonard from that or Deandre Swift in a neutral situation I'm still going Swift I'll go for a net the offenses make a big difference yeah it's close though and it wasn't to start the season at all it wasn't even two weeks ago Swift specifically it's very evident that they just want to throw him the ball Lombardi Lenny Thurston and Lenny got six targets last week though just saying looks like James Robinson's expanded role was not just because Carlos Hyde was banged up he had 25 just opportunities this past week that is his second most this year he also had 100 yards from Scrivich for the third time in the past four games in a four game span Robinson has 39% of the team's red zone chances it's still not like the best workload but it's getting better where are you at on James Robinson right now so here here might be a better question just because I don't like this offense um it's a good workload but it's a bad offense so um I think you kind of have to figure out where you are with this offense in relation to okay so 86% snap rate is it fair to comp his role to like Davante Booker like for the sake of comparison close enough I think that the talent gap is big enough where I would put Robinson like half a tier above Booker okay I was what I was trying to get at is the importance of offense which we just talked about with Swift and Fournet but you know how does Robinson compare to some guys with those similar like workloads who you think are going to play 80% of snaps how does he line up and I'm always going to keep bumping him down because the offense just is you know overall expected to struggle yeah that's fair uh and I think that based on where his salary was last time he was on a main slate I think we're lower on him than the salary makers are which means we're probably lower than the public as well I'm going to stay lower on him than them because I'm guessing they're bumping him up whereas I'm bumping him up but from a lower baseline so I would probably still be lower on him than others Daryl Henderson I'm okay not being low on him he keeps just confirming that his role is legit he had 27 just opportunities which is um he had 26 plus and 2 out of 3 games since he came back from his injury 99 plus yards of scrimmage in all three of those games I feel like we should just believe what they're telling us which is like they want to get Daryl Henderson the ball and he's playing well so what are your thoughts on Daryl Henderson right now really like Henderson you know just from a snap because you could nitpick everything about a player's role and say that they're not similar but we're talking about someone in James Robinson with like an 86% snap rate Henderson's around there in his healthy games the offensive difference here and I mean I think Daryl Henderson's good so it's really difficult to like James Robinson by comparison because I have someone like a Daryl Henderson only they're near each other yeah I agree so like but salary wise they're probably going to be closer than they they should be which is where you and I differ from probably consensus on this one but I think the biggest issue is their 14 and a half point favorites we have seen his snap rate get dinged in games where they have been way ahead it's really happened last week when they played some Sony Michelle down the stretch maybe the week before I can't remember but outside of that like Henderson is locked and loaded for me the spread is concerning just because that's historically I think a lot of people will see that spread and say it's Daryl Henderson weak and it can be but from a ceiling standpoint you've said that that's not really the case so give me a salary for Henderson and your thoughts overall so in this offense with his role I would say he's like a seventy eight hundred dollar back is that appropriate he's eight thousand so where would you put him I would have set up her sevens too yeah so we're in line with that the spread is like concerning from the ceiling perspective I think the one thing that works in his favor this week is their two things first one is that there are a lot of heavy spreads this week so the relative downgrade of that is lower number two is that it's a Sean McVehr revenge game against Jared Goff and I think Sean McVehr is going to run up the score like just knowing the way he comes off he sounds like kind of a dick I don't know like but I could see him running it up to like shove it in the face of Jared Goff oh well all those are going to go to Stafford so he's my QB one for the week I don't care who else is on the slate yeah fair enough okay so I think that the relative downgrade of using a non-competitive game is less of this week than it is because there's so many dick spreads yeah because of this week I would agree but 8000 is very fair for him it's a little bit higher than I would have put it but like that's very fair for his role in that offense first game for the steal was with no Juju Smith Schuster the stealers funneled targets to Deontay Johnson he had 13 targets for those were deep Chase Claypool, Najee Harris and Pat Frymuth all had seven so they did funnel volume to a couple guys but they didn't do a whole lot with it even in a plus matchup which is not shocking given the offense they're on a buy we know the volume would be concentrated but the offense stinks so how are you viewing Deontay and will you consider Pat Frymuth yet yeah I love I love Frymuth he got kind of the short end of the stick because Kyle Pitts was in this class but his profile is a tight end coming out is really really promising so I like him and we're always looking for tight ends with some semblance of a pulse and for him we can see him get high volume for a tight end but also some it seems like he's the first to read sometimes so it's not just like those kind of targets where you're like what's that Dumboffs? so I like that I know he's athletic enough to score if they don't give Eric Ibron handoffs at the goal line but I'm cool with Frymuth I would probably say that this offense is not good enough to want even one off exposure for the most part so in the event that they're ever in a game where I could kind of see stacking it it's going to be many stacks because I'll never play Ben Rothesburg or in DFS but with the target volume I'm kind of cool all four of those guys to different degrees yeah Claypool is kind of annoying to me right now because his whole pitch is high leverage targets and he didn't get a whole lot of those he got three reds and I guess but like he also looked kind of weird I don't know like he's banged up or what but like it looked kind of funky I guess I think that I think Deontae I like, Najee I like Frymuth I'm okay with a little lower than you but I'm okay with him it's a tight end where I see a path to being relevant for DFS on a means like for sure I agree let's move to situations to monitor and stick with that same team you noted Najee Harris what did you see there 73% of the routes which is just awesome to see his workloads awesome the touchdown equity within this offense because Ben Rothesburg has played poor without adjustments but even with adjustments still below expectation so it might just be time where I start plugging in Najee Harris more and just trust the volume leading to yardage and then eventually some touchdowns as for another running back situation that I've been kind of tracking Aaron Jones versus AJ Dillon in week six the workload you know still favored Aaron Jones as expected but you know it's not Aaron Jones is not really a back that I'm as low on Jones whenever Jamal Williams was taking some work then I got over that and now I'm kind of back to where I was Jones had 13 carries four in the red zone four targets one of which was in the red zone and a 60% snap rate and by comparison AJ Dillon 11 carries one of which was in the red zone no targets though 44% of the snaps so yes the workloads still clearly better for Aaron Jones I'm not making the case that it isn't but it's not really the snap rate the overall workload I'm looking for from a running back and the issue for me always is that Aaron Jones is he's salaried as if he's going to hit the high end of what he can do which when he does and I don't have him it burns me but when he doesn't and he's over salaried then I kind of benefit so name that salary don't think about where they put him think about where you think he should be based on his workload like 69 in this like you said think about okay so past four games yardage for Aaron Jones 115 96 99 109 110 he was back up to 50% of the team's red zone uses this past week like he's 75 I think $600 is a pretty big gap like 75 is where I put him I guess I should say I'll still be lower I think than where he's at because he is 85 so I think you're just putting him lower than you should because like he's still like that yardage is really good and he's still getting red zone work like that's what matters let's see score points is yardage and touchdowns he's still getting those two things even if he's not on the field as much as he was before I just I hate I hate do you play on the points per snap league I hate playing okay now we don't care about snaps that's the thing we never care about snaps with Aaron Jones ever and we that's just not how I play DFS like I can't talk myself into this guy's gonna play barely above half the snaps and I just need to bank that he has really high efficiency on his snaps I mean either way we're both lower than consensus on him I think that's the key takeaway here so I was gonna say like 71 72 but then I felt I felt a little bold so I went below 7000 I just don't like the snap rate and I never have and I don't like that AG Dylan's taking more carries again I said talked about the leverage on Aaron Jones's Aaron Jones or Leonard Fournette I go Jones by a bit but like I think they're very smart right now and that's not like that I like four nets let's not saying I will cross but like 8500 I think that's the key takeaway here again is that that's very high for his role yeah I'm not gonna play any that's the thing so I said basically said these words his he's always salaried at what his I feel like his ceiling is and I never like I never target that and I feel this way with Aaron Jones basically every single week that he's on the main slate I think I would say with Jones I think he negatively benefits more from a potential blowout because we've seen them use AG Dylan before and they've been up big so we're talking about spreads I think he's one of the guys who gets a bigger bump down in a less competitive game he's also so Aaron Jones is caught all but two targets this year I know it's a high catch rate position but like because he's great so you're gonna discount him because he's good wow wow wow uh okay what's your next note here I don't know I'm all worked up now Rashad Bateman played 44 snaps for the Ravens I was 65% in his first game it's a lot higher than I expected ran 20 rounds had six targets with 29 yards I will note though that just one of those targets was farther than nine yards from the line of scrimmage so the target again this is kind of where you and I really value downfield work I'm not expecting Bateman never to get but like that's kind of problematic and then just some tight end notes one more thing on Bateman one thing I would note I guess there is that they were facing the Chargers defense which philosophically tries to limit downfield passing the Ravens through downfield just three times in that game and like Lamar has been aggressive downfield all year he wasn't there because I think that's the design of the defense so I would not say that Bateman will be a low A dot guy because he didn't get a lot of downfield work there that's the one thing I would say there but I think the role overall was good and if you were to keep that role I'd agree that's a downside I just don't know how sticky that is given the defense they were playing yeah I mean I didn't mean to imply that it was going to stick I just meant you know it's something to monitor which is situations to monitor where would you put Bateman's salary because I think that was actually a pretty good role and like that game's not the worst next week they're facing Cincinnati at home like it's more competitive than other ones at least probably like the upper fives I don't know if I can get quite to over 6,000 for him he's 63 so I feel like that'll be I might write him down actually make sure you type it as you heard that's the one downside you can hear me typing alright other situations to monitor T.G. Hawkinson might be healthy again 35 routes led the team in all these stats targets with 11 catches with 8 in yards with 74 Ricky Seales Jones right 95% of Washington's routes and Hunter Henry was at 83% for New England we never liked New England but Henry might be shaping up to be the only place I'm going to go at this point just because he's a tight end but his salary was already 5,600 and he scored so who knows he can score Jacoby Myers was in the end zone twice I guess so if that counts one was called back the penalty and one was on a 2 point conversion but hey you know whatever I need Henry's salary to be a bit lower than it was this past he's 56 I think that's a little 57 against the Jets I guess I don't know I think the Jets might be a bit underrated defensively that's a weird take to float out there but let's do it Monday morning things I'm keeping an eye on I want to talk to you about this one the Bucks pass catchers they're likely to get Rob Gronkowski back which could jumble things up but we're getting a larger sample on them and it's pretty gross Antonio Brown leads with 20% of the overall targets in the games they've all played together he has 28% deep but very little red zone work Chris Godwin only red zone work 90% overall 18% deep 33% the red zone Mike Evans particularly not a lot of red zone work either he's at 15% there 30% deep 19% red zone they all have their drawbacks it's kind of annoying what are your thoughts on the Bucks pass catchers right now um well you know historically Antonio Brown plays about half the snaps and is hyper efficient so he should be 8500 just like Aaron Jones because he's good on a per snap basis um but I just don't like this team uh like from a market share standpoint and there's a lot of a lot of value in knowing where the ball is going with teams just because probability wise if you're kind of banking on you know again I run simulations to look at the the probability that guys get to certain thresholds they're all going to project fairly well from like a median standpoint but just the sheer odds that they hit high ends are going to be a little bit lower than you would like for what their salaries are because they are within a good often so you know I feel like this is a team where if I want to stack them I kind of can't stack as many other teams because I need to make sure I have my bases covered because you know and this could be playing scared but if I'm stacking like you know because Tom Brady's passing well enough where I'm going to consider him I started the season really just targeting the rushing quarterbacks but you know if I want Brady it's going to be tough to build lineups with just Antonio Brown and not have any Chris Godwin for example who's kind of underperformed a little bit on the past two weeks so I'd like to buy low on him if possible but you know again I talk about this a lot but I think there's a ton of inherent value in knowing where the ball is going yeah Godwin 67 I like that that's low enough for me to overlook some of the concerns and take swipes given how good the offense is Antonio Brown 74 Mike Evans 71 I feel like out of that group I just take the lowest hour guy go from there right do you think everyone will do that though I think they'll go to Brown given the production but I could be wrong I don't know 13 targets on 37 snaps that's nuts I mean the snap rate I think the route rate matters more the route rate has also decreased from those two guys but he doesn't play in a lot of heavy running personnel sets because he's not out there for two receiver sets yeah he's what's the route rate for the season let's say for week six for week six route rate let's go full team 95% for Godwin and Evans 71% for Antonio Brown that's not terrible I think it's actually maybe a little bit higher than it has been it's the snap rates being 50% but for Brown I understand the context for running back I get a little bit more nervous when they're not necessarily on the field speaking of snaps Jonathan Taylor's red zone role is unreal right now they have had 10 red zone plays the past two weeks that were not sacks shocker that Carson wants to take a sack all of those plays were Jonathan Taylor runs that brings his season long red zone sheriff to 48% which is a stupid number is this increasing your willingness to use him 6900 get out of here he and Jones are my nemesis when it comes to the new Derek Henrys DFS now that we love Derek Henry to find someone to replace him yeah I just like I kind of bucket these two specifically together where I know the snap rate is going to be bad but they're going to get the ball and they have the potential to score twice they have yardage outside because they're good but it's whenever they don't really hit those high ends that it feels kind of trappy we look at Taylor's on the main slate so I look like I get the case I'm warming up to Taylor more and more I should have been on him more just because the matchup was promising and there's always that path and with the red zone work like honestly we don't even I'm not going to say we don't care about carries but we care less about carries than we do with targets and we care a lot with red zone carries just because that's where valuable touches come from so you know I'm good with Taylor I'm getting better with Taylor than I was I think the concern would be if the receiver inches lower the teams efficiency that could be a downside but I mean his role is better than we bill it as being it's getting better I think is what I would say Don Parham's role not getting that much better he ran 14 routes compared to 24 for Jared Cook he may get there eventually I know there was a blurb about him over the weekend he's not there yet though so if he has a breakout and I'm not there I'll buy an after I'm not there right now Cortland's son and Noah Phant seem to be pulling away from the Broncos other pass catchers they have played three games with no KJ Hamler Sutton has 28% of the overall targets 52% deep and 35% in the red zone that's nuts Noah Phant is at 21% overall which is very good for a tight end 14% deep 18% in the red zone so both these guys have good roles right now they play Thursday night I feel like Sutton's probably going to be one of the better fantasy options in that game from a single game perspective just because he's getting so much high leverage work right yeah I'm going to go nuts for Cortland Sutton on the Q&A because of the air yards and I had a note on him as well but then I saw that you had something he had a league best 20.2 weighted targets this week which accounts for your red zone and downfield targets leads the NFL in air yards per game over the past three weeks he's at 188 per game Terry McClourn's at 180 Jamar Chase and DJ Moore are next at 131 so his gap is pretty I mean it's close to McClourn but over everyone else it's pretty massive Teddy is definitely more than viable so I'm very high on Cortland Sutton despite the fact that we'll never really stack Broncos games when they're on the main slate of someone I would even just consider in a one off because the workload is so consistently good you mentioned McClourn's name and I feel like that's probably a pretty good comp McClourn pre this year because the defense is so bad like when it was Washington tended to be in lower scoring games but because the market shares were so good you could consider him I think that Sutton's kind of in that same bucket and he's good so I think that helps as well let's talk about the Cardinals it may be moot with the Zach Ertscher but the Cardinals did run a bunch of four receiver sets on Sunday Rhonda Moore played 58% of the snaps the other three receivers were all at at least 84% Moore ran around an 18 and 32 drop backs the others all ran at least 26 the problem is I would bet that Moore probably gets a roll re-decrease which is fun to say when Erts makes his debut next week but not a certainty given that he did see Moore eat into Kirk snaps and three receiver sets last week so I think Brandon I'm okay with the Erts trade being like re-shuffling my prioritization here where it's just kind of Deandre Hopkins and then yeah at number two for stacking with Kyler yeah it's really hard to narrow that down and it's this is not a team where we needed a new wrinkle to mess with because now once Erts plays against Houston and I'll ask you about his salary in a second once we have that then the sample kind of goes back to one and then we got to figure out from there what we can trust but name a salary for Zach Erts in this offense against the Texans and the Cardinals are 17 favorites like 47 he's 53 I don't know it's this first team with a new team that's kind of tough it's a tough ask from a learning the playbook perspective so I yeah and just because we're here what about the receivers you can just do Hopkins if you don't do all of them but like Hopkins I think he was 76 this past week I think that's appropriate he's this week or before the wind stuff before Kyler Shoulder we talked about liking his role a lot so I think that he's appropriate I know these do for some touchdown regression but like the while the touchdowns they come down the yardage of getting better for me so it just depends with the regression if you think that it's within one season or overall because he was due for some mega positive regression after last year but yeah he's 8000 I think that's very fair yeah I agree let's now to philosophical changes talk about some teams with some changes this past week the Dolphins got to a tongue of I low back his first full game since week one and he did make some really dumb mistakes like as someone who wants to it to succeed is very frustrated to watch him sometimes but he's still average point two three passing that expected points per drop back that's a very good number that was without will Fuller Devonte Parker impressed in Williams so he was efficient despite having no receiver except for jail and wattle his eight out was 8.1 the Dolphins were very passive to their early down first half password sixty three percent so they did let it fly they get the falcons next week so we're gonna have to have eyes on that passing game there brand any thoughts for you on the Dolphins with to a back you did a really high pass rate excluding garbage time plays which is when their presnap win probability would have been between twenty and eighty percent seventy point one percent which actually would lead the league over the full season is about top five for this particular week their pace was a little bit below average but that's really promising to see you have me believing into a no he's better than Jacobi I I kind of got very concerned about to after week one given the way his ball kind of died I think he's better than Jacobi and I I don't like to dunk on him like Twitter does but like I think that he's limited but fine is what I would say you have me believing into a more than I more than I would have in a viable the FS office I'll say that more than I would have otherwise is kind of what I'm getting at his numbers aren't particularly great but this is just a team that it's going to depend a lot on what their healthy receivers look like yeah like I'm not going to chase I think Mack Hollins ran like ninety five percent of the routes so mean fake Mike Kisicki so yeah I mean it's going to depend on their health and and weirdly they didn't take a by London and they're facing the Falcons were coming off a buy so it ain't great from a rest discrepancy perspective and I don't get that I have them as being pretty massively undervalued in terms of the spread here because they're a point have dogs I think they should be figured by two point seven so I don't know how much that rest is worth but I might have to bet them anyway where we have a jail in Wattle and Mike Kisicki heading into next week I feel like Parker flew with them to London Preston Williams was on the field working out didn't play so I bet they get at least one of those guys back where you at with Wattle and Kisicki right now oh boy I mean Wattle's role was great hundred and twenty air yards with those thirteen targets Kisicki just to hide I've been high on Kisicki for the past few weeks just because he was getting the ball a lot and he's one of the few tight ends where I feel like there's a path to the yard job side because he's just athletic enough so Kisicki's going to be in play for me Wattle is going to be really salary dependent do you have a feel for where you put Wattle on the main slate in terms of salary um probably around like sixty two sixty three or so I saw Kisicki's salary and actually made my jaw drop a little bit in a good way Kisicki is six thousand which is really easy to say and Wattle is fifty nine hundred Kisicki's too low for his role do you disagree? I can see the case but like what are you actually thinking because that might be where we did sixty five like a legit sixty five not a oh that's kind of weird that Hunter Henry's sixty five hundred dollars this week like a legit sixty five hundred dollars yeah maybe because like think about it this way like if you had a receiver coming off a nine target fifteen-yard game facing the Falcons I'd pay sixty five hundred dollars for that pretty easily but he also feels tight end yeah I mean I'm not going to talk bad about Kisicki but but how am I Kisicki than you? looking at the yardage that someone had last week is not really how I play DFS okay well look at the yardage he's had previously and look at the yardage he can get because of the volume he gets he had eighty six against Vegas and that was with a worse quarterback than what he has right now man I don't know how I go from talking about Mike Kisicki having good yardage upside just to saying I'm not chasing 115 yards necessarily because he had well he's guaranteed 115 next week that's math okay what do you think about that one? yeah I like that I think that's a really good salary for his role you know a receiver coming off of what 70 yards to touchdowns pencil that back in for next week and correct he's going to over pen it back in don't pencil it in would you rather use Kisicki at 6000 at tight end or Waddle at 59 at wide receiver probably Kisicki because tight ends bad yeah so again I just I'm fine with Kisicki at 6000 I wouldn't put him quite at like 65 just because that's when I 65 is it kind of when I consider you part of the big 5 or big 4 depending on like what the slates look like I don't I have them just below that so I think 6000 is fair so looking at next week there are only 3 games with a total of above 45 and a spread of less than 5 Kansas City Tennessee Philadelphia versus Las Vegas Dolphins Falcons yeah I wrote down dolphins pass catchers I think that was worthy of a write down did you write it down or did you type it down I typed it you're right I'm sorry I'm sorry I lied to you first game with no John Gruden the Raiders had a 62% early down first half pass rate they drop back just 29 times total but that was because they got a head early they had low play volume they had a positive script they're early down first half pass rate Gruden with 63% they ran more play action here I think was that was interesting as well but pretty much the same thing what are your thoughts on Vegas based on this first game with no Gruden um definitely don't dislike it their pass rate was up a tad their pace was a little bit better as well so I like that I just I have a hard time building around their car teams just even still the ADOX really good the efficiency is kind of middling it's better than middling but the the big concern for me is I don't like their market shares enough Darren Waller feels like he'll always be inflated for the role that yeah it's it's shaping up to be exactly like last year we had a huge game early and then was just kind of fine and then had like another huge game late and like but he's salaried close enough to guys like Kelsey where I don't really want to get there and as much as I'm cool with Henry I don't want to get drugs from a downfield like high leverage maybe he'll catch some perspective it's really about it for me where are you at on Josh Jacobs I'm kind of interested he's facing Philly next week their run game is trash but Philly's run defense is trash so kind of tempted to go with Josh Jacobs depending on the salary so I want to hear your thoughts on the salary first I'll name my salary as well what you got on Josh Jacobs so 64% snap rate um four red zone carries this week one target 40% of the red zone chances 40% and 67% is three gains since he came back I don't but the percentage with red zone stuff I need like numbers because I need to know how often a team is actually there well I think that if you're using them in DFS and to get there I think the rates actually do matter I'm not saying I didn't say they were irrelevant I just meant like I like to kind of have some more contacts but I'm going to be too low on Jacobs because he's in that Jonathan Taylor bucket 72 oh I was thinking like 68 I guess sorry I didn't mean to make you think that I was like his yardage upside is really bad so I can't get too high but I think that his role is good enough to use him in DFS and he is 69 damn it I thought he's going to be lower that's upsetting I thought he's going to be lower I was hoping we'd get people sleeping on him that's not low enough like it's I'll probably use him at that salary but like I really wanted to be lower so my thing with Jacobs is that he again is just someone where I feel like the salary is never going to be as low as it should be for the concerns that he does have which is I thought it'd be lower because people have crossed him off but apparently they haven't so disappointing it's like it's the same thought process um with an Aaron Jones and a Jonathan Taylor I just feel like they're always not really there for those three guys specifically I think it's it's down to those three their concerns are never really reflected in the salary for me so I'm always lower on them and it can burn me but I think Jacobs clearly of those three the least likely to burn me yeah I don't think he'll burn you I was hoping we'd get him at like 63 given that the Raiders are so bad with the rushing they did they they didn't give it to us pretty sad about that I feel I just I feel like looking at his game logs and stuff you would single this out and just rail on him he's got 16 and a half Fandall points on a two touchdown game 8.2 when he didn't score 14.7 each of the past two weeks with the touchdown I feel like you would just normally hate that so what is it with Jacobs that you're seeing that's different I thought people would be crossing him off and I thought we'd get him at a low salary that's what I thought I was wrong he gets good red zone work he's playing a lot of snaps right now relative to where he used to be he's gotten more passing game work he had five target he's the past two games which is before this week so like I think his role is getting better and I don't think people have caught on to that yet so I think he's in play at 69 I'm not eager to use him at that number though in Gino Smith's first game he averaged negative point one nine passing net expected points for drop back ain't great the team ran just 15 early down first half plays which is wild 10 of those are passes five runs I would not read into that because they didn't like later in the game they didn't seem to trust Gino so I wouldn't put a ton of stock in that number but the offense did struggle and I think that I'm fine putting stock in that so they're not in the main slate next week but I think that nothing changed from my previous expectations on the Seahawks do you agree yeah it really felt like they did not want to like let him drop back and throw the ball yeah it his a dot was going four yards I don't have the actual downfield numbers in front of me but I can't imagine it was very many so you had some pace notes you wanted to go through what did you see when you were running those numbers yeah just some things that jumped out to me and again all my pace numbers include just non garbage time plays so your presnap win probability between 20 and 80 percent Denver has ranked top 20 to the past three games 18th 12th and 14th they started the season 30 if they're worse in each of the first three games so that's something that I'm keeping track of helps me with Courtland Sutton not a whole lot else there aside from I guess Noah Phant but it's these noteworthy Detroit's pace is improving a little bit from 31.9 seconds per play through the first three which was 28th in the NFL to 30.1 which is now 19th so again less bad which is noteworthy Jacksonville went from bottom five and pass rate to the past three weeks to third in week six and New England had lead in pass rate from weeks two through four but are now 26 over the past two games so they're kind of fully crossed off yep they should have been before but they're fully crossed off for me yeah I was going to regret using Shelby Myers this past week but I also realized the guy I would have pivoted to is Michael Pidman who also did nothing so probably shouldn't regret that it was fine they stink you know that's what they are okay let's go through our salary scroll here do you want quarterback or running back we're just doing all this together now okay so starting off in quarterback where's Ryan Tannehill $7600 I'm gonna have a stupid amount of Ryan Tannehill this week yep I saw my home's at 88 and I was like alright where's Tannehill yep I skip passed a lot how is Sam Dardle higher salary than Ryan Tannehill oh my Jalen Hurst is 83 are you going to say that? yeah get main Johnson back right uh he has some personal stuff is he back I think he's in Nazis coming back okay let's get Lamar at 84 is not bad I think the key guy here that was Tannehill correct it's going to be Tannehill I mean I could see a case well I could see a case that hating this but just Matt Ryan coming off of a buy maybe things get right a little bit but he's outside sure but that again we singled out as one of the games where it's close I think it's going to be a thin quarterback week it might just be Mahomes, Tannehill and Hurts maybe or Jackson it's not that thin actually that's four quarterback I'm usually at so I would say right now consideration side is Tanne Hurts, Lamar, Mahomes with Tanne being the heavy heavy emphasis. Stafford revenge game I think Stafford's going to have a very easy path to again I don't like to bank on you know three four touchdown games because you probably bank on it there but you probably can there let's go to running back Derek Henry is $11,000 oh my goodness uh wow buddy I think that's the situation where if you're using Henry you almost have to stack him with Tannehill just to offset the salary bit yeah probably so here's okay so this is going to drive me nuts because we have Derek Henry at $11,000 Chris McCaffrey is going to be out then Aaron Jones at $85 he's second on the slate I do not think that he should be second on a main slate but the running backs behind him are pretty iffy and Cordero's eight so our top three backs are Derek Henry a guy who plays 60% of the snaps and a guy who is like the outlier of the season at $8,000 and Daryl Henderson oh my god so okay so it's okay so Henry 11 Aaron Jones 8.5 Patterson $8,000, Henderson $8,000 and then it's just down to Chuba Hub at $73 so we're going to we're either going to prioritize Jones I mean we're going to prioritize Henry for sure but if you're not prioritizing Jones and Henderson or Patterson if you're there you're actually going to save a lot of salary at running back so I think that's going to be a key takeaway from this recap you can save money at running back and use Cordero because you can put him a wide receiver and have four running backs in your lineup I'm not I'm not quite there with I'm going to screenshot this for you actually know Peter makes a noise and it'll pick up on your audio when I screenshot it I have a lineup right now oh boy that is that is Cordero with Derek Henry and it doesn't look terrible it might force me to use the Jets defense but we're going to do it baby we're going to do it so I'll say this I was like I know it's low and I was trolling with Aaron Jones's salary being like egregiously low I do think based on the context of this slate it's going to be a week where I feel like I'm going to have to play Aaron Jones even though I have concerns because running back drops off pretty quickly it's the same checklist we used with Derek Henry last year where what are the odds he makes me regret not using him probably 15% so probably a 15% or so 15% is not that high no it's not but I don't like to play guys because I'm afraid of missing out I want to play guys because I really like what I see you're playing them because they have a ceiling I think is the better way to phrase it it's not because you're afraid we play guys for ceilings all the time for net is 7000 I think that's kind of a standout to me in terms of salary for this week yeah so I think it's worth noting Schubert 73, Joe Mixon 72 DeAndre Swift 71, Leonard for net 7000 is for net tops there out of those four 1, Mixon 2, Swift 3 Darrell 67 that's fine no objections seeing more context there Miles Sanders is $5,900 I'm going to use Miles Sanders this week and I'm going to regret it I'm very excited for that wow I'm writing that down I know I'm going to regret this but I don't care do you ever do things that you're like I know I'm going to regret this like do you do that like actively do things you know you're going to be mad at yourself for yeah like Troll is so hard to call Iron Drone 6900 yeah but yeah I do regret that though because like I was trying to illustrate a point and I was too low and I mean it was just it didn't quite work out but like a JD McKissick I could see like not a good play but I might get there Miles Sanders or JD McKissick assuming no Gibson probably McKissick probably not though the the path for McKissick not to get like six targets which is equivalent to like 12 carries it seems very narrow that he doesn't like it feels like he's going to get targets 1554 I'm not going to use him but he's probably going to get good work in that game yeah I'm really tempted by Miles Sanders and I hate myself for it but I feel like that's the big I think that for net being where he is Sanders being where he is those are the two things that stood out to me outside of Derek Henry being 11,000 yeah I mean Jared Patterson's 53 maybe we'll learn something more maybe if you gave him the Gibson role I'd be very into that and I wouldn't be shocked if you got that I just don't think well confirmation of the fourth game yeah and that makes it a play that you can't really justify okay let's go to wide receiver here where are the Tennessee guys AJ Brown is 7,000 Julio 69 why is Julio not lower hmm it's annoying oh boy Davontes 9,000 and cups 88 I'm going to be too low on them this week yeah I've been really hard made it not to use them over Tyreek Tyreek's 85 for the people listening that's a pretty stout and we also have another drop off where it's those three are 85 or above Cordero's 8,000 Nuke 8,000 DJ Morse 7,700 and then Jamar Chase is 75 so very few above 75 I feel like typically we get a little more in that upper 7 range but it's really just DJ Morse by himself yeah scrolling down I think the Tennessee guys of 7,069 are the two kind of standouts there in that range God when it's 67 stands out to me Darno Mooney is $5,900 it's a script where the bears love to throw against Tampa Bay he got 8 targets on Sunday that's not bad so I feel like there have been historically more high 7,000 receivers and that the 6,000 range was always kind of where you and I would just load up on receiver in the past few weeks the 6,000 range has been mostly vacant I've been pretty frustrated with Jalen Hertz's passing efficiency but Davante Smith at 58 might be low enough to get me to still go there he hasn't scored since week 1 his yardage has been super volatile but he can still at the high end so I think that Davante Smith at $5,800 is worth noting here yeah so there are 8 receivers in the 6,000 range that feels like impossibly small and it's a 10 game slate I would guess that part of it is because you've got Tyreek Hill up top and then you've got Derek Henry at 11 I think that the algorithm forces it to settle out like an average salary and I'm guessing that pushes a lot of guys down most likely but yeah Smith's a good call I can't believe we're looking at Alan Robinson healthy at $5,800 and just being like no he had 4 deep targets on Sunday I think was it 5, he had 5 deep targets he had 4 the entire season before that so that's the thing is like is he worth jotting down no but me cool is is he down $5,400 I'll take that again has there ever been like a slower older more boring rookie ever Covey Framon gets a lot of like I'm going to be I'm keying in on Khalif Raymond for the Thanksgiving slate okay cool whoo okay that's fine Bateman 53 stands out to me too I think I'm going to be in the $5,000 ratio receiver a lot this week that my four running back lineup with Henry and Cordero in it has $58,67 left for two receivers in the tight end so I'll be down here a lot and I am looking forward to it they're going to be that or landing on the more balanced running backs and that's here on $7,000 and then trying to be in like the upper sixes to $7,000 but then you're not getting any of the the high ceiling studs which is not really how I'm going to play it so ready for tight end yeah I'm like $6,000 too low are you agreeing with me or are you being I think he should be $6,000 I was just messing with you oh okay I thought you were agreeing with me Pitz is $61,000 not terrible for that game I don't know what his role will be with Ridley being back but like you know I mean that's fine Hawkinson is $62,000 as I mentioned he was kind of back for their 14 point implied total Tyler Higby $55,000 have you played every snap this week again again he has not scored more than 12 and a half Fando points yet but I've used him pretty much every week RSJ is $54,000 against the Packers it's not bad no big shot Bob how far are you falling not even tempted by you $5,100 Robert Tunyon no chance I don't think any of these names are jumping out to me it's the usual suspects I think Gasicki is actually RSJ maybe if you're looking to save I think that Gasicki, RSJ Pitz all viable guys this week so I was talking about not getting access to the high ceiling guys if you build a little bit more balance at running back and receiver but we do have Kelsey, Andrews Waller Hawkinson, Pitz and Gasicki at tight end statistically probably you do that so statistically two of those guys are going to get like 15 plus so you really got to think long and hard if you're kind of punting at tight end we didn't know this but Calvin Ridley is $7,300 oh I like that so a Ridley or Cordero Gasicki game stack could work or with Waddle I don't want to think about Cordero Patterson we're going to have to bud I love not having him on the main site I didn't like if my dynasty teams was a pretty big buzz kill there things did not go well as a result of that the jets are $3,300 on defense I'm just saying I'm just saying I'm just saying putting it out there Calvin Ridley is the biggest underperformer in terms of expected fandal points for a game as you pronounce it there too the Giants defense is $36 against James Darnall we can actually spend down to defense this week I'll take it so the New York New York teams yeah and then the Packers are $41 I would say those are the primary focal points for this week okay any other salary scrolls for you no I'm not gonna jump out to me on defense I'm a donkey when it comes to defense I just need to find a way to jam in Derek Henry let's do it note to future me Brandon what are you telling Sunday Morning Brandon here on this Monday check my notes again my sheet of paper here with some names that I wrote down and I can keep up with this throughout the week cross off some names add some names but I do think that this salary scroll has been very helpful for me because never are these numbers fresher in our minds than we when we just spend an hour and a half talking about them so we'll have to account for weather and spreads and things like that that change but I think checking your notes, keeping notes however you keep them is noteworthy and I have played a lot of Matthew for this week my note to future me is don't talk myself into bad games because there are only bad games on the schedule like if I have to just make myself more concentrated I think that's kind of the take away there I would say so what are you defining as bad games because only two of them have like an abnormally low total but a lot of them have bigger so like I guess maybe bad stuff maybe trap like don't talk myself into using like Matt Ryan don't talk myself into using a quarterback in a bad game or like deceptively I don't know basically don't bump up the middling games because there's a lack of good games this week I'd rather go to Talon Brady's a big favorite or go to Stafford's a big favorite then go to someone in a tighter game just to fit my typical process I think that is a tweak ready to tweak things a bit play the good plays games aren't as good as we would like them to be yes because the relative downgrade this week is lesser than usual that doesn't matter that is all that we have here for today Brandon any final thoughts for you before we close the book on week number six we're getting to the point in the season where samples are getting big but not every sample is as relevant as others stealing something from Jim talking about relevant samples so it's worth looking into market shares whenever you know relevant players out even if it makes the sample smaller so I think it's about time that we keep an eye on that and not just look at season long numbers also don't overreact performances like yardage stuff don't don't get in like a sticky for 115 next week this is probably noted to pass maybe I don't know I just can't believe you said that out of all things but whatever he's going to get 115 give me odds and he gets exactly 115 I'll run some numbers and I'll give you some odds thank you you never gave me numbers on David Montgomery getting 20 by the way and he got 20 before he got hurt that one week so I'm just a little mad that you never gave me that number pretty mad about it pretty mad anyway that is all that we have here for today we do have a Monday night football preview coming up with myself and Ryan Williams that will be at 4pm eastern on the Fandall YouTube Twitch Facebook and Twitter pages we have the waiver wire Q&A on Tuesdays Brandon has the Thursday night preview what is it this week um oh it's Browns Broncos oh yeah yeah yeah so it's quarter to Sunday big quarter to Sunday night and Dimetric Felton in the Cordero Patterson role and then Friday is our snake trap Brandon won this week so we're all tied up at 2 again because why not so a lot of good stuff on the Fandall YouTube Twitch Facebook and Twitter and on the Fandall YouTube Facebook page also make sure you are subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed because NBA coming back this week so Tom Beckiel will have the Daily ISO once again the Daily Deak already going up for out on the NHL side of things USC, NASCAR, PGA all right here on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed make sure you're subscribed and if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review Brandon people have questions for you on Twitter where can they find you there and that Jim Sonnis J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S you can also follow the Fandall Podcast Network at Fandall Podcast big thank you to everyone for tuning in for today good luck to you with your Monday night single game slates we'll talk to you once again on Thursday to preview week 7 this has been the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire